The Determinants of Performance in Heritage Conservation Preliminary Draft Massimo Finocchiaro Castro Deaprtment of Economics, Royal Holloway, University of London, UK & DEMQ, Universita’ degli Studi di Catania, Italy Ilde Rizzo DEMQ, Universita’ degli Studi di Catania, Italy 1. Introduction The literature on the economics of heritage has not extensively investigated the Heritage Authorities performance and the determinants of such performance in the field of heritage conservation. On the basis of a previous study (Finocchiaro Castro and Rizzo, 2005), where we computed the efficiency scores of the Soprintendenze1 and found a relevant degree of variability, our main aim is to explore, from both a theoretical and empirical point of view, the determinants of such a variability, using economic and political variables, to distinguish objective from discretionary causes. In section 2 a brief account of the institutional features of conservation in Sicily will be offered; in section 3 the empirical analysis will be presented and section 4 will conclude. 2. Institutional Features and Policy Tools in Sicilian Heritage Conservation 2.1 Sicily is an Italian region which enjoys full autonomy in the field of heritage policy2. Political decisions about heritage policy are taken by the Regional government 1 The Soprintendenze are the Provincial Boards for Culture (Rizzo and Towse, 2002). while their implementation is carried out by nine Heritage Soprintendenze, which are responsible for any decision regarding heritage conservation.3 Their activity offers an interesting case study both for understanding the features of Sicilian conservation policy and for analysing the role of the regulator in the heritage field. In heritage conservation, as in many other fields of public intervention, the decision-making process can be described using the principal-agent paradigm and, indeed, such a paradigm is highly suitable due to the asymmetries in information – those connected to the artistic features of heritage – are relevant. As it is well known, in fact, heritage is a vague and broad concept and, as a consequence, the activities of Soprintendenze are wide-ranging and impinge upon private as well as public decisions. In other research,4 it has been pointed out that Soprintendenze are run by experts, enjoy great freedom not only because of the choice of instruments and their intensity but also because the scope of their activity largely depends on their autonomous evaluation, given that the concept of heritage is not well defined ex ante and is expanding through time. For expository reasons, in what follows, on the grounds of Rizzo (2002) we distinguish two types of Soprintendenze activities: passive conservation (PC) and active conservation (AC).5 Such a distinction might be questioned, since PC and AC activities may be interconnected in some cases6; while recognizing the significance of these links, using such a distinction is useful because it recalls the conventional distinction between public intervention tools (spending and regulation) and, thus, helps to understand the complexity of conservation activities from an economic point of view. Moreover, the distinction allows for empirical investigation by introducing the possibility of devising 3 In this paper “conservation” is used in a wider sense than usual. For instance, according to a widely adopted definition (Lichfield, 1988, p. 26), interventions on built heritage that can be regarded as conservation include: (1) prevention of deterioration, (2) conservation, (3) consolidation, (4) restoration, (5) rehabilitation, (6) reproduction, and (7) reconstruction. Our definition includes all of the above plus regulatory activity. 4 See Rizzo (2001, 2003). 5 Indeed, some Soprintendenze run museums, conserving artistic and/or archaeological collections of local relevance. The difficulties encountered in the collection of the data referring to such an activity has not allowed so far to include it into the analysis; the authors hope to be able to overcome such a problem by the time the final version of the paper will be ready. 6 For instance, research and study activities underlying both can be considered interdependent; a discovery resulting from an archaeological excavation might call for imposing constraints; at the same time, expropriation is prerequisite to direct intervention. indicators for each activity. Indeed, some Soprintendenza also run museums with permanent collections consisting of items belonging to the area under the Soprintendenza’s control and supervision. So far the collection of data has not been completed because of bureaucratic problems and, therefore, this activity will not be included in the analysis. 2.2. PC pertains to the activity of providing rules and monitoring their implementation; i.e., the regulatory activity for both public and private heritage situated in the territory of Soprintendenze. PC activity implies many different administrative acts, enforceable on both private and public owners, such as: Constraints (limitations on the use of heritage whose strength depends on the type of heritage and includes items such as monumental constraints, prohibition of alterations and land constraints Demolition orders Authorisations (consent for carrying out activities such as restoration and rehabilitation of heritage)7 Permission to import and export In some cases, such as authorizations, the above regulatory activity is in response to the owner’s demand. In other cases, they can be spontaneous measures to constrain owner’s activity (landscape constraints) or punishment for violations (for instance, demolition orders). Soprintendenze decisions are taken on the grounds of technical (given that their staff is made up of experts) and administrative grounds and are subject to judicial review only if those affected dispute the decision in court. 2.3. AC refers to direct intervention to provide conservation, such as spending activity. AC involves a wide array of activities such as taking an inventory, performing scientific research, training staff, updating, excavating, and restoring. In other words, AC 7 The strength of this act depends on the type of heritage and the constraint to which it is subject. For instance, it is more severe if the constraint refers also to the interior of a listed building and less severe if the building is only subject to restrictions on its appearance. refers to activities put in practice by Soprintendenze via direct expenditure, mainly through the hiring of external contractors to carry out physical operations and draw up contracts. The degree of autonomy enjoyed by Soprintendenze is very high at the planning level while low at the operational level.8 No autonomy exists as far as the operation of funds is concerned, given that any expenditure decision – even within the program – has to be approved at the regional level. The only cases in which Soprintendenze enjoy financial freedom is in so-called situations of high emergency. The Soprintendenze’s expenditures are constrained by the availability of funds. Diagnostic activity is usually not feasible on a large scale and, therefore, poor information does exist on the health status of heritage and AC activity cannot be directed where it is most needed, with the likely consequence of reducing the overall effectiveness of the allocation of resources in this sector. The amount requested to the Regional government usually exceeds the amount granted.9 2.4. Rizzo and Towse (2002) analyze the main features of the decision-making process reaching the conclusion that the devolution of conservation to the Regional government does not guarantee in itself that local preferences are adequately represented.10 The lack of institutional forms for representing local opinion in the decision-making process is likely to limit the beneficial impact of devolution. Soprintendenze performance is not adequately monitored at the Regional level nor evidence emerges that an incentive system exists (in terms of the size of budget or private benefits for bureaucrats, such as career and salary) to induce Soprintendenze to fulfil government objectives, however they are defined. As a consequence, conservation would 8 Once the yearly activity program submitted by each Soprintendenza is approved at the regional level, no discretionary variation is allowed. 9 In the first stage of our research, we conducted interviews with senior bureaucrats in each of the nine Soprintendenze bureaus and issued questionnaires. The latter sought information on output (both active and passive), input (personnel), financial resources, and qualitative aspects such as relationships with local governments and the role of procurement. 10 One possible explanation lies in the fact that the accountability of regional government in Sicily has been very low: lack of real fiscal autonomy coupled with a proportional political system has so far implied a very low degree of political accountability. The voting system changed recently; in 2001, for the first time, the regional governor was elected directly by voters. seem to be mainly driven by objectives and preferences of the specialists and experts within the Soprintendenze. Finocchiaro Castro and Rizzo (2005), using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique to calculate the efficiency scores of heritage conservation activity, also showed that in the period 1993-2000 Soprintendenze performance exhibited a high degree of variability and that there was room for efficiency improvements. In PC activity, the Soprintendenze seem to be relatively more efficient when their output is mainly demandinduced. Comparing AC and PC activity, however, the former (being the more performance-visible), achieves relatively higher levels of efficiency than the latter. The initiative of private heritage owners (the demand), thus, seems to affect the Soprintendenze’s conservation activity significantly. Empirical evidence, therefore, would suggest that the choice of the output mix (AC and PC) is mainly driven by specialists according to their own objectives. Within such a framework, more attention is likely to be paid to the demand of public intervention when private benefits and costs are involved rather than when the benefits and costs of a public good are involved. The analysis carried out with the DEA represents only a first step into the empirical analysis of the way heritage conservation activity is carried on. A further step is to try to understand what are the determinants of the variability of Soprintendenze performance, whether it is affected by economic features, such as the scale, or by the political factors characterizing the decision-making process. 3. The empirical analysis of the determinants of performance in heritage conservation 3.1. So far in the literature, no attention has been paid to investigate the specific issue of the determinants of Soprintendenze performance. There are studies on the measurement of the performance of museums (Pignataro and Zanola, 2001; Pignataro 2002; Mairesse and Vanden Eeckaut, 2002; Paulus, 2003; Basso and Funari, 2004) but, to the best of our knowledge, no research has been undertaken on the determinants of museums and Soprintendenze performance. Indeed, Soprintendenze have been investigated as far as the determinants of the allocation of funds from the Regional government are concerned. The first empirical work trying to assess this issue is Guccio and Mazza (2005a). This study analyses the statistical significance of several sociopolitical variables that may affect the allocations to the Soprintendenze. In a follow-up paper, Guccio and Mazza (2005b) investigate whether the Assessore Regionale11 or the Presidente della Regione12 being elected in a congressional district, which lies in the area of competence of a specific Soprintendenza, implies higher allocations to that Soprintendenza. This study show that the allocations of funds is used to reward specific areas for the political support provided to the government (Cox and McCubbins, 1986; Rodden and Wilkinson, 2004) but, at the same time, it may be affected by the relative weight of the government members when deciding on the allocations (Baron and Ferejohn, 1989). In what follows, we try to give a tentative contribution to fill this gap in the analysis of the determinants of conservation activity performance. For this purpose, we will use different techniques, such as OLS with robust errors (White, 1980), and Tobit regressions to estimate the weight of each explanatory variable. In fact, the use of regression analysis to combine the non-parametric DEA method and parametric statistical analysis is a well-know practice in the literature (Charnes et al, 1994; Lovell et al., 1994; Grosskops, 1996; Cummins et al., 1999). 3.2 Our dependent variable refers to the DEA efficiency scores achieved by Soprintendenze between 1993 and 2000 as computed by Finocchiaro Castro and Rizzo (2005): the efficiency scores of each Soprintendenza were computed using personnel as input and, the expenditure and the weighted administrative actions as outputs, according with the definition of AC and PC13 offered above. To investigate the determinants of the performance of Soprintendenze conservation activity, we consider economic as well as political variables. We do not include the stock of heritage as explanatory variable. From a theoretical point of view, the 11 Assessore Regionale is the Regional Officer for Culture (Rizzo and Towse 2002). Presidente della Regione is the Regional Governor. 13 In measuring the PC output a distinction was drawn between two components of PC activity: demandinduced and spontaneous. The former refer to those actions taken because of the initiative of private owners; the latter are those occurring as a direct result of the Soprintendenze’s proposals. 12 exclusion of heritage may appear surprising. However, the official available data on the amounts of heritage under the supervision of each Soprintendenza are rather obsolete and not complete. The only official publication available (Atlante dei Beni Culturali Siciliani, 1988) does not offer a complete coverage and, hence, those figures cannot account for all the changes in the amounts of heritage controlled by the Soprintendenze in the last decade. Hence, we believe that the inclusion of heritage could have badly affected the results of our analysis. As far as the economic variables are concerned, supply and demand variables can be used. Looking at the supply, we try to test the hypothesis that performance is affected by the features of the Soprintendenze production process, namely the scale of production. The scale of production can be expressed using several variables. One indirect measure can be given by the population served. Being the territory of each Soprintendenza perfectly overlapping with the Province area, the population of each Province can be used as proxy of the dimension of each Soprintendenza activity (POP). Indeed, such a variable could also be a proxy for the size of the demand. Another variable can be the size of the area, expressed in squared Kms (SIZE). Being heritage scattered in the Provincial territory, the size of the area, other things being equal, is likely to affect negatively the cost of producing both AC and PC activities.14 Moreover, the allocations might offer also a variable representing the size of each Soprintendenza. This is not to say that greater allocation necessarily implies greater heritage – since the role of socio-political variables cannot be disregarded , as Guccio and Mazza (2005b) stress - but only that the greater the size of the budget the greater the scope of the Soprintendenza activity. However, in our analysis the use of such a variable is not advisable because the efficiency scores, i.e. the dependent variable, were calculated using the expenditures that are closely related with allocations. Looking at the demand, it would be useful to use cultural spending per capita as a measure of the demand for cultural activities. Such a variable would give also an indication of the cultural environment and, therefore, might be able to represent the interest of the local community for heritage conservation. So far, we have not found reliable data of per capita cultural spending at provincial level for the entire period 14 Same conclusions are usually reached in the literature on the efficiency of public services. covered by the analysis and, therefore, we need to look for alternative variables. Income per capita can be used as a proxy for the demand of conservation (INC), on the assumption that heritage is a luxury good. Income per capita is also a proxy for the socioeconomic status of the population, such as for instance, education which, in turns, positively affects the demand for heritage. Table 1 and Table 2 summarize the main statistics for each of those variables. Table 1 – Statistics of socio-economic variables in the period 1993-2000 Soprintendenze Agrigento Caltanissetta Catania Enna Messina Palermo Ragusa Siracusa Trapani Regional Level Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Average St.Dev. Efficiency scores 0.66 0.21 0.55 0.22 0.59 0.24 0.51 0.16 0.74 0.11 0.75 0.22 0.86 0.19 0.71 0.21 0.53 0.11 0.66 0.21 Allocations* 10665.8 2326.52 5720.24 801.22 7464.12 2306.01 4704.41 1909.3 11929.85 3111.6 23339.75 8542.86 12625.1 4872.33 4544.13 1217.19 9095.97 3894.42 10009.93 6656.06 Per-capita Households Income* 8.25 0.79 8.58 0.82 9.83 0.65 9.17 0.70 11.52 1.01 10.64 0.62 11.58 0.79 9.04 3.25 9.38 0.89 9.78 1.70 Source: Our computation of data from Istituto Tagliacarne, ISTAT and Assessorato Regionale ai Beni Culturali * Values measured in thousands of eurolire at 1995 constant price. Table 2 - Demographical and Territorial Variables Soprintendenze Size* Population** Agrigento Caltanissetta Catania Enna Messina Palermo Ragusa Siracusa Trapani Regional Level 3042 2124 3553 2561 3247 4992 1614 2108 2460 25701 435 257 972 171 614 1149 273 375 399 516 Source: Our computation of data from ISTAT * Values measured in squared Kms. ** Values measured in thousands. The above variables account for economic determinants deriving from demand and supply sides. A less clear-cut role is played by another variable, the seniority of Soprintendenti15 (SEN), i.e. the length of appointment of Soprintendenti measured with the number of months. The most straightforward interpretation of the impact of such a variable is that a long tenure implies more experience and, therefore, a positive effect on efficiency. At the same time, adopting a public choice interpretation, a long tenure would imply a more powerful bureaucrat, who would have a greater bargaining power to extract resources from the political decision-maker and would be less accountable. Therefore, a likely negative impact on efficiency might be expected. In addition, to capture the role of experts, as described in the literature, another variable representing the expertise of each Soprintendente might be used especially to investigate whether a change in expertise might affect the efficiency scores. In the analysis, a dummy to control for the different field of specialization when a new Soprintendente is appointed (EXPT). Finally, as far as the political determinants are concerned, we use the same variables adopted by Guccio and Mazza (2005b), i.e. a dummy to control for the costituency in which the Presidente della Regione was elected (PR) and a dummy to extend the same control to the Assessore Regionale (AS). However, it should be stressed that here the interpretation is different, since the coincidence of Presidente della Regione and Assessore Regionale would imply a stronger incentive of these “principals” to monitor their “agents”, i.e. the Soprintendente, in the constituency where they have been elected. Therefore, we might expect a positive impact of these two dummies on the efficiency scores. 3.3. In order to identify the determinants of the performance of heritage conservation in Sicily, we try to test whether the above mentioned variables representing demand, supply and political factors are influential in affecting the efficiency scores obtained in 15 Soprintendente is the Provincial Director for Culture (Rizzo and Towse, 2002). Finocchiaro Castro and Rizzo (2005). In the empirical analysis we add also a time variable to capture the effect of time on the explanatory power of independent variables. Our data refer to the conservation activity of the nine Sicilian Soprintendenze across 8 years of observation (1993-2000). The estimated models combine time series and cross-sectional data gathering a total of 72 observations. We choose the linear model as functional form. The empirical analysis is carried out applying different estimation methods to our model. In particular we estimate equation (1) using an a) OLS regression with robust standard errors (White, 1980), and b) Tobit regression. We tested different models using alternative combinations of the above mentioned variables. Table 3 describes the results of the regressions that better describe the complex activity of Heritage conservation run by the Soprintendenze. In the two regressions, the variables INC and SEN are both significant and with positive sign. This would suggest that the demand exerts a positive effect on efficiency and this somehow confirms the suggestions offered by Finocchiaro and Rizzo (2005) in the interpretation of the DEA analysis. The positive sign of seniority would suggest that, indeed, experience counts and affects efficiency in a positive way. The public choice interpretation does not seem to get support from the analysis. Regarding the supply variables, the population16 and the size of each province are not significant. A possible explanation for the lack of significance of supply variables might be due to the features of the dependent variables, since the effect of the scale of production is already taken into account in the DEA efficiency scores. We also tested for allocations which turned up to be highly significant and with positive sign; however, the above mentioned close relation between allocations and expenditures did suggest not to include such a variable in the estimated models. Unlike Guccio and Mazza (2005b) results, the political variables showed to be not significant, though with the expected signs, probably because their effect in this analysis is less straightforward. 16 The use of such a variable might suggest the introduction of a dummy variable to control for the Soprintendenza of Palermo, since it may represent an outlier because of the size of its population when compared with the other provinces. However, we found no relevant changes in the results of the empirical analysis when we introduced the already mentioned dummy and, therefore, we did not include it in the estimated model. Table 3 – The estimated model Explanatory Variables CONSTANT TREND POP INC SEN PR EXPT SIZE AS R2 Pseudo R2 N OLS with rse Tobit 0.159 (0.165) 0.003 (0.011) 0.00008 (0.0001) 0.045*** (0.011) 0.0006* (0.0003) 0.031 (0.064) -0.025 (0.064) -0.00001 (0.00007) 0.109 (0.074) 0.135 (0.201) 0.0008 (0.011) 0.0001 (0.0001) 0.048*** (0.015) 0.0007** (0.0003) 0.0507 (0.082) -0.021 (0.083) -0.00002 (0.00006) 0.111 (0.076) 0.27 72 1.4514 72 The symbol * indicates that the coefficient is significant at the 10% level. The symbol ** indicates that the coefficient is significant at the 5% level. The symbol *** indicates that the coefficient is significant at the 1% level. The standard errors are robust (White, 1980). Hence, the efficiency scores of the Sicilian Soprintendenze seem to be affected by the demand and the “quality” of supply, as expressed by the seniority. However, the present work has to be considered as a first step towards a more complete and accurate analysis of the determinants of Soprintendenze’s performance in heritage conservation activity and, therefore, caution is suggested in evaluating our conclusions. 4. Concluding Remarks This paper can be considered as a first step into the analysis of the determinants of performance in Heritage conservation activity, which has not received so far attention in the literature. Our investigation has a methodological interest since, to the best of our knowledge, a two steps analysis as the one proposed here has not been applied in the heritage sector. However, it has to be noted that the inadequacy of the currently available data is a major constraint for the development of empirical analysis. On this basis, we find that the performance of Sicilian Soprintendenze, measured by the efficiency scores obtained through the DEA analysis, is affected by both demand and “quality” of supply factors, as expressed by the seniority of Soprintendenti. References Baron D. and Ferejohn J. (1989) Bargaining in legislatures. American Political Science Reviewi, 83, 1181-1206. Basso A. and Funari S. (2004) A Quantitative approach to evaluate the relative efficiency of museums. Journal of Cultural Economics, 28, 195-216. Carr M. J. (1997) Strategic choices, firm efficiency an competitiveness in the US life insurance industry, mimeo. Charnes, A. Cooper W. W., Lewin A. Y. and Seiford L. M. (1994) Data envelopment analysis: theory, methodology and applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Norwell, MA. Cox G. W. and McCubbins M. D. (1986) Electoral politics as a redistributive game, Journal of Politics, 48, 370-389. Cummins D. J. Tennyson S. and Weiss M. A. (1999) Consolidation and efficiency in the U.S. life insurance industry. Journal of Banking and Finance, 23 (2-4), 325-357. Finocchiaro Castro, M. and I. Rizzo (2005) Performance measurement of heritage conservation activity in Sicily, DEMQ, Working Paper. Green W. (2003) Econometric Analysis, 5th international edition, Prentice Hall: London. Grosskopf S. (1996) Statistical inference and non-parametric efficiency: a selective survey. Journal of Productive Analysis, 7, 161-176. Guccio, C. and I. Mazza. (2005a) The determinants of regional spending for heritage conservation and valorization in Sicily, mimeo. Guccio, C. and I. Mazza (2005b) Analisi politico-economica del finanziamento regionale dei beni culturali. In Mignosa A. and I. Rizzo (eds.), Tutela e valorizzazione dei beni culturali in Sicilia, Franco Angeli: Milano. Lichfield, N. (1998) Economics in Urban Conservation. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Lovell K. Lawrence L. C. and Wood L.L. (1994) Stratified models of education production using modified DEA and regression analysis. In Charnes et al. (eds.), Data envelopment Analysis: theory, methodology and applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Norwell, MA, 329-351. Mairesse F. and Vanden Eeckaut P. (2002) Museum assessment and FDH technology: towards a global approach. Journal of Cultural Economics, 26, 261-286. Paulus, O. (2003) Measuring museum performance: a study of museums in France and the United States. International Journal of Arts Management, 6(1) Fall. Pignataro G. (2002) Measuring the efficiency of museums: a case study in Sicily, in Rizzo, I. e Towse, R. (eds.), The Economics of the Heritage: A Study in the Political Economy of Culture in Sicily, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, 65-78. Pignataro G. and Zangola R. (2001) Analisi dell’efficienza dei musei. In Valentino P.A. and Mossetto G. (eds.), Museo contro museo: le strategie, gli strumenti, i risultati. Giunti: Firenze. Rizzo I. (2002) Heritage Conservation: the Role of Heritage Authorities, in Rizzo, I. e Towse, R. (eds.), The Economics of the Heritage: A Study in the Political Economy of Culture in Sicily, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, 31-47. Rizzo I. (2003) Regulation, in Towse, R. (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham. Rizzo, I. and R. Towse. (2002) The Economics of the Heritage: A Study in the Political Economy of Culture in Sicily. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham. Rodden J. and Wilkinson S. (2004) The shifting political economy of redistribution in the Indian federation, mimeo. Xue M. and Harker P. T. (1999) Overcoming the inherent dependency of DEA efficiency scores: a bootstrap approach, Working Paper n° 99-17, Financial Institution Center, the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. White H. (1980) A Heteroskestacity-constant covariance matrix estimation and a direct test for heteroskedasticity, Econometrica 48(4), 817-830.