Lagrangian Approaches, MPAs, Spatial Management and Climate Change
Participants: Alan Hastings (Chair), Hal Batchelder (Rapporteur), Will White, Loo
Botsford, Jeff Runge, Rubao Ji
Overall Summary:
The group met for ca. 3 hr on 14 April 2010 to discuss the advances made by GLOBEC
funded Lagrangian studies, and the significance of that approach to better understanding
the distribution and life cycles of marine organisms, and especially, how these studies can
usefully inform spatial management of marine resources and the design of Marine
Protected Areas (MPAs). Quite a few issues were discussed, some at length and others
more briefly (see notes from meeting below). GLOBEC funded Lagrangian studies in the
NW Atlantic, California Current and Southern Ocean programs. Only the GLOBEC
program in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska did not have a project focused on Lagrangianbased transports of marine organisms.
We focused on factors that control pelagic stage dispersal and transport
distances/durations and directions of meroplankton and holoplankton: circulation,
buoyancy and wind forcing, depth distribution of plankton (passive vs. behaviorallydetermined), and for meroplankton in particular, their pelagic larval duration (PLD),
effect of temperature and prey fields on growth and survival, and the development of
settlement competency and recognition of suitable habitat. Population and
metapopulation dynamics and dispersal patterns, and how these might alter due to
regional climate change were discussed. Population rich species require life history
models of the entire life cycle to assess habitat recognition and site fidelity as important
issues (Heath; Runge, Ji et al.; Runge paper (The Sea (Ch 13 of Vol 13).
Specific metapopulation studies accomplished within GLOBEC include those of Botsford
et al. 1994; Runge et al. (submitted; GLOBEC International Issue in Progress in
Oceanography).
Key questions that will be addressed by a planned paper are:
1) What is the appropriate way to couple Lagrangian based coupled biophysical
computations of the early life histories together with the longer-term population
dynamics, survival and reproduction for multiannual species (Botsford et al.,
2009)?
a. What are the relevant time scales for linking equilibrium population
demographic models to Lagrangian studies?
b. What characteristics of larval dispersal patterns lead to population and
metapopulation persistence?
i. Esp. self persistence vs. network persistence (e.g., Botsford et al.
2001; Hastings and Botsford, 2006; White et al., 2010)
2) How will global changes, esp. climate change, impact dispersal patterns and
metapopulations?
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a. Near-term studies using best available data and methods for short-term
forecasts
b. Long-term, e.g., linking Lagrangian studies to information provided by
IPCC type projections
3) Applications of Lagrangian approaches beyond MPA-related issues
a. Using IBMs to examine potential changes in biogeographic boundaries
b. Using IBMs to examine optimal life history strategies
4) Effect of environmental and demographic uncertainty may differ on long-lived vs.
short-lived species, and on iteroparous vs. semelparous reproductive modes.
a. Annual connectivity vs. less-than-annual connectivity of populations.
5) Behavior
a. Directed movement of various types matters to dispersal patterns (e.g.,
Tremblay et al., 1994; Batchelder et al., 2002)
b. How sensitive are dispersal and successful recruitment to assumptions
made about settlement behaviour, recognition and distance of suitable
habitat?
References
Batchelder, H. P., C. A. Edwards, T. M. Powell. 2002. Individual-based models of
copepod populations in coastal upwelling regions: implications of physiologically and
environmentally influenced diel vertical migration on demographic success and
nearshore retention. Prog. Oceanogr., 53, 307-333.
Botsford, L. W., A. Hastings, and S. D. Gaines. 2001. Dependence of sustainability on
the configuration of marine reserves and larval dispersal distance. Ecology Letters, 4,
144-150.
Botsford, L. W., C. L. Moloney, A. Hastings, J. L. Largier, T. M. Powell, K. Higgins, J. F.
Quinn. 1994. The influence of spatially and temporally varying oceanographic
conditions on meroplanktonic metapopulations. Deep-Sea Res II, 41, 107-145.
Botsford, L. W., J. W. White, M. A. Corrroth, C. B. Paris, S. Planes, T. L. Shearer, S. R.
Thorrold, and G. P. Jones. 2009. Connectivity and resilience of coral reef
metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive
needs. Coral Reefs, 28, 327-337.
Hastings, A., L. W. Botsford. 2006. Persistence of spatial populations depends on
returning home. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 103, 6067-6072.
Runge, J. A., P. J. S. Franks, W. C. Gentleman, B. A. Megrey, K. A. Rose, F. E. Werner,
and B. Zakardjian. 2004. Diagnosis and prediction of variability in secondary
production and fish recruitment processes: developments in physical-biological
modeling. Chapt. 13 (pp. 413-473) in The Sea (Robinson, A. R., and K. H. Brink,
Eds.), Harvard University Press.
Runge, J. A., A. Kovach, J. Churchill, L. Kerr, J. R. Morrison, R. Beardsley, D. Berlinsky,
C. Chen, S. Cadrin, C. Davis, K. Ford, J. H. Grabowski, W. H. Howell, R. Ji, R. Jones,
A. Pershing, N. Record, A. Thomas, G. Sherwood, S. Tallack, D. Townsend.
(submitted) Understanding climate impacts on recruitment and spatial dynamics of
Atlantic cod in the Gulf of Maine: integration of observations and modeling. Prog.
Oceanogr.
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Tremblay, M. J., J. W. Loder, F. E. Werner, C. E. Naimie, F. H. Page, M. M. Sinclair.
1994. Drift of sea scallop larvae Placopecten magellanicus on Georges Bank: a model
study of the roles of mean advection, larval behavior and larval origin. Deep Sea Res.
II, 41, 7-50.
White, J. W., L. W. Botsford, E. A. Moffitt, D. T. Fischer. 2010. Decision analysis for
designing marine protected areas for multiple species with uncertain fishery status.
Ecological Applications, (in press)
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Detailed Notes from WG Meeting:
Is there a legacy here (in Lagrangian approaches) for GLOBEC?
How to properly put the physical and pelagic coupled biological-physical computations
(Lagrangian) together with the non-pelagic phases of the life-history?
Metapopulations and dispersal patterns; how will global changes in dispersal patterns?
How will wind effect transport of eggs, larvae of Atlantic cod, in getting to suitable
benthic habitats? Use Lagrangian studies to examine variable climate/wind forcing
impacts on recruitment success.
Why are we here?
1) Describe what we are talking about.
2) What Lagrangian studies have been done within GLOBEC.
3) What metapopulation studies have been done within GLOBEC: Botsford et al.
1994; Runge, Kovach et al. (submitted; GI-PiO).
4) Describe how the field has developed from the literature.
5) How do we link Lagrangian based studies to IPCC type projections.
6) Connectance maps: and what these depend on,
a. How the modeled individuals interact with model boundaries and how
well this mimics the real ocean interactions.
b. Population rich species require life history models of the entire life
cycle; cod site fidelity model (Heath; Runge, Ji et al.—includes
metapopulation structure of cod; Runge paper (The Sea (Ch 13 of Vol
13).
c. Will White work on metapopulation aspects relating to implementation
of MPA (using Edwards model);
7) Data based evidence for connectivity (genetics, chemical signatures, tags).
8) Backwards vs. Forwards Issues (Batchelder)
9) Other applications:
a. Using IBMs for examining changes in biogeographic boundaries
b. Optimal life history strategies
10) Relevant time scales for linking equilibrium population demographic models
to timescales of Lagrangian studies.
11) Uncertainty has different impacts on long-lived vs. short-lived species.
12) Annual vs. less-than-annual connectivities.
13) Characteristics of larval dispersal patterns that lead to population and
metapopulation persistence.
a. Self persistence vs. network persistence (Botsford etal 2001; Hastings
and Botsford, 2006; White etal 2010 [MEPS])
14) Behavior matters to dispersal patterns (Batchelder et al. 2002).
15) Settlement behavior, recognition of suitable habitat; distance of such.
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