WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
___________________________________________
THE SEVENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs
TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING
CITEKO, WEST JAVA, INDONESIA
12 TO 15 NOVEMBER 2012
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1)
(29.X.2012)
___________
ITEM 3.3
ENGLISH ONLY
REPORT ON CURRENT AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES
Recent and Current Activities of the TC RSMCs/TCWCs
(Submitted by RSMC Miami, USA)
Action Proposed
The meeting is invited to review the recent and current activities of RSMC Miami, USA
_________
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 2
Recent and Current Activities of RSMC Miami
1.
Background
RSMC Miami is responsible for tropical and subtropical cyclone advisories for the
North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North Pacific Ocean
eastward from 140°W. RSMC Miami assists the WMO Regional Association IV (RA IV)
members in the coordination of watches and warnings during the tropical cyclone events. In
2010, the lead times of tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings were increased
by 12 hours. This change was coordinated and adopted by member countries in RA IV at
the 32nd session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. The extension has allowed more time
for the emergency managers and the public to prepare for tropical cyclone events.
Dr Richard Knabb (Rick) is the Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)/National Weather Service (NWS)/National Hurricane Center (NHC)
and the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Regional Specialized Meteorological
Center Miami (RSMC Miami).
2.
Coordination
In the U.S.A., tropical cyclone forecasts are coordinated with the U.S. National
Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices and the Department of Defense (DOD)
via a dedicated hotline. The NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in
Camp Springs, Maryland, provides rainfall guidance and serves as the backup for the RSMC
Miami for the Atlantic basin tropical cyclone products. The NOAA/NWS Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii is the backup center for NHC’s eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclone forecasts. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) provides
guidance on the possibility of tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones. The Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) is activated to
assist with the coordination among emergency managers. Activation of a media pool during
landfalling hurricane events continues to be a very efficient way of communicating tropical
cyclone warnings, hazards, and forecasts to the public in the United States.
Coordination between RSMC Miami and the U.S. Department of State Crisis
Operations Center during hurricane was helpful in communicating forecasts with the U.S.
Embassies in the RA-IV countries.
Reconnaissance aircraft plays an extremely important role in monitoring the track and
intensity of tropical cyclones. These valuable meteorological data are not available from any
other sources. RSMC Miami thanks the RA IV members for helping to coordinate timely
over-flight clearances for reconnaissance aircraft.
RSMC Miami greatly appreciates the radar imagery received operationally from RA IV
members during the hurricane season. The Chairman encouraged NMHSs to continue to
make radar imagery from the region available operationally via the Internet or any other
possible way. The radar data greatly assist in the forecast and warning process by providing
a more accurate assessment of a tropical cyclone’s center location and structure.
Surface and upper air observations are very important to the operational forecasts of
the RSMC Miami. The Chairman appreciated the members’ efforts to maintain their
observation and communication systems, especially the data received from the members
during tropical cyclone events.
RSMC Miami thanks the members affected by tropical cyclones for the timely
submission of their post-storm country reports. These reports are vital to the preparation of
the RSMC Miami Tropical Cyclone Report
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 3
3.
Products issued by RSMC Miami
NHC provides the “big picture” that complements and guides local U.S. NWS
Weather Forecast Office products, and provides guidance for international partners. All
these products are disseminated via GTS or NHC web.
Hurricane Specialist Unit
Text products
Public Advisory
Forecast Advisory
Forecast Discussion
Wind Speed Probabilities and Maximum Intensity Probability Table
Tropical Cyclone Update
Position Estimate
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Reports
Seasonal Forecast (as co-author)
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
Graphical products
Watch/Warning and Track Forecast Cone
Surface Wind Field
Wind Speed Probabilities
Intensity Probability Table
Cumulative Wind History
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Storm Surge Probabilities and Exceedence
Podcasts (Audio)
Experimental GIS Products
Forecast track, cone of uncertainty, and watches/warnings
Surface wind field and forecast wind radii
Preliminary best-track information including cumulative wind swatch, track, points, and wind
radii
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Wind Speed Probabilities
Probabilistic Storm Surge
Watch/warning breakpoints
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
Marine forecasts (graphical and text) and discussions (MIM)\
Experimental gridded marine wind and wave forecasts
Surface analyses and discussions (TWD)
Aviation forecasts and warnings (backup responsibilities)
Satellite-derived rainfall estimates
Dvorak Tropical cyclone intensity estimates in support of NHC TC forecast operations Media
support to NHC (English, Spanish, French)
Radar tracking of tropical cyclones
Forecast support to Hurricane Specialists (Marine)
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 4
4.
Future products
NHC has been conducting several in-house experiments during the past couple of
years to determine the feasibility of providing improved forecasts and enhanced decisionmaking support. These experiments include:
-
Day 6 and 7 track and intensity forecasts
Medium range (days 3-5) probabilistic tropical cyclone formation forecasts
Issuance of Watches and Warnings before tropical cyclone formation
Pre-tropical cyclone (disturbance) track and intensity forecasts
The NHC began making day 6 and 7 track and intensity forecasts for all active
tropical cyclones in 2012. These forecasts, along with their utility, will be evaluated for
possible extension of the current NHC 5-day (120 h) forecasts. NHC is planning to continue
the in-house experiment in 2013 for additional evaluation.
NHC started making probabilistic tropical cyclone formation forecasts out to 5-days in
2009. These forecasts have been sufficiently reliable for NHC to begin exploring ways to
issue them in both text and graphic formats.
NHC understands the need of emergency planners to have additional forecast and
warning information when a tropical cyclone forms near land and impacts a region very
quickly. As a result, the NHC has been creating in-house track and intensity forecasts during
the 2011 and 2012 seasons for disturbances assessed to have a high (greater than 50%)
chance of development during the preceding 48 hours. These forecasts have been created
in support of a second in-house experiment that is exploring the issuance of tropical cyclone
watches and warnings before tropical cyclone formation.
5.
Training activities
The WMO RA-IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warning and Public
Weather Services is held yearly at RSMC Miami. The workshop is offered in English and
Spanish every other year due to the importance to the region’s hurricane program. Lixion
Avila participated in a Hurricane Forecasting Workshop in the Dominican Republic and in El
Salvador during May 2011 and February 2012, respectively.
Several meteorologists from the region have participated in the WMO/RSMC Miami
attachment program. The meteorologists helped with hurricane warning coordination in the
region during the tropical cyclone events while they gained valuable training in hurricane
forecasting. RSMC Miami and WMO strongly encouraged WMO RA-IV Permanent
Representatives to continue to support this program.
Meteorologists from the Mexican Air Force are stationed at the RSMC Miami during
the hurricane season. The meteorologists help to coordinate timely clearances for hurricane
surveillance and reconnaissance flights over Mexico during tropical cyclone events that had
the potential to make landfall. Their efforts helped improve the overall efficiency of the
Hurricane Warning Program. RSMC Miami urged the continuation of this program.
On November 16-19, 2011, Dr Cristina Forbes, an oceanographer and numerical
modeler at the National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Unit, attended the Word
Meteorological Organization Stakeholders Technical Workshop for the JCOMM-CHy Coastal
Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) in Santo Domingo, Dominican
Republic, as an invited storm surge modeling expert. The workshop was held in Spanish and
was well attended involving participants from many different local and foreign institutions.
Dr Forbes presented a talk entitled "An Introduction to the SLOSH Modeling System" then
developed and presented a draft plan to establish a new storm surge prediction system in the
Dominican Republic.
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 5
NOAA/NWS has been engaged in capacity-building efforts within the region. NWS/
IAO supports capacity-building, education and outreach activities in RA-IV through the
WMO's Voluntary Contribution Program (VCP). Many of the projects are in support of the
monitoring and warning of hurricanes operations of RSMC Miami, but the activities also
support the routine forecasting and operations of NMHSs in the region.
NOAA Tropical Training Desk: NOAA trains meteorologists from Central America and
the Caribbean each year at the Tropical Desk at the NCEP/HPC. Fellows are trained on
operational skills, including numerical weather prediction techniques
6.
Outreach Activities
The Latin America Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour (LACHAT) takes place
every spring. The U.S. Air Force C-130 (J-model) Hurricane Hunter plane visits different
WMO Region IV countries with the purpose of increase public awareness of the hurricane
threat and will serve to recognize and strengthen national and international teamwork for
storm warning and emergency response. The LACHAT had enhanced the visibility of the
participating country’s weather forecasting and emergency management offices. Over 15
thousand people toured the plane every year. A Hurricane Awareness Tour (HAT) typically
takes place along portions of the United States coasts.
7.
Research
As part of the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP), the Joint
Hurricane Testbed (JHT) is one of the primary avenues to evaluate research projects with
the goal of transitioning successful projects into operations. Details on this project are found
at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/index.php
In addition, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) is a multiagency effort to improve tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast accuracy by 50% over a
ten-year period. Some promising preliminary results were noted when Doppler radar data
were assimilated into a high resolution model. The output showed potential to provide better
intensity forecast guidance, though much more developmental work and testing are required.
RSMC Miami is actively involved in leading the aspects of HFIP. A procedure whereby
promising output will be made available in real or near real time for the Specialists in in
place, allowing for interaction through the season between research and operations
scientists. Details on this project are found at: Details on this project are found at:
http://www.hfip.org/
RSMC Miami participates in the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC).
Hurricane Specialist Dr Lixion Avila is member of the IWTC international Committee.
During the past two or three seasons, the U.S. Air Force and NOAA Reconnaissance
Hurricane aircraft have provided valuable meteorological data not available from any other
sources. The NOAA P-3 and NOAA-Gulfstream jet aircraft missions were primarily devoted
to collecting data for the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX) project lead by NOAA’s
Hurricane Research Division. IFEX seeks to improve operational forecasts of tropical
cyclone intensity, structure, and rainfall by providing more accurate data to the operational
numerical modeling system (HWRF) and by improving understanding of tropical cyclone
physical processes. Several other experiments occurred simultaneously and in partnership
with NOAA. NASA collaborators conducted the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes
(GRIP) experiment to better understand the processes important in tropical cyclone genesis
and rapid intensification. The NSF conducted the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud
systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment to understand the processes governing the
transition of easterly waves into tropical depressions, with a focus on the mesoscale and
synoptic-scale environment supportive of tropical cyclogenesis. These observations
collected, no doubt, aid researchers in understanding the processes that contribute to
hurricane intensification, ultimately leading to better forecasts.
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 6
8.
Tropical cyclone activity since 2009
Atlantic activity since 2009
Year
2010
2011
2012*
Totals
#NS
19
19
17
55
#H
12
7
9
28
#MH
5
4
1
10
#H
3
10
10
23
#MH
2
6
5
13
Eastern North Pacific activity since 2009
Year
2010
2011
2012*
Totals
#NS
7
11
16
34
RSMC Miami totals:
#NS 89
#H
51
#MH 23
Additional information of individual named tropical cyclones is included in the summaries
written by the Hurricane Specialists Unit and can be found at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml.
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 7
9.
2012 Tropical Cyclone Season
ATLANTIC PRELIMINARY SUMMARY TABLE
NAME
DATES
MAX WIND (MPH)
--------------------------------------------------TS ALBERTO
19-22 MAY
60
TS BERYL
26-30 MAY
70
H CHRIS
19-22 JUN
75
TS DEBBY
23-27 JUN
60
H ERNESTO
1-10 AUG
85
TS FLORENCE
4-6 AUG
60
H GORDON
15-20 AUG
110
TS HELENE
9-18 AUG
45
H ISAAC
21 AUG-1 SEP
80
TS JOYCE
22-24 AUG
40
H KIRK
28 AUG-2 SEP
105
H LESLIE
30 AUG-11 SEP
75
MH MICHAEL
3-11 SEP
115
H NADINE
11 SEP- 4 OCT
90
TS OSCAR
3-5 OCT
50
TS PATTY
11-13 OCT
45
H RAFAEL
12-17 OCT
90
---------------------------------------------------
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 8
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC PRELIMINARY SUMMARY TABLE
NAME
DATES
MAX WIND (MPH)
--------------------------------------------------TS ALETTA
14-19 MAY
50
MH BUD
21-26 MAY
115
H CARLOTTA
14-16 JUN
105
MH DANIEL
4-12 JUL
115
MH EMILIA
7-15 JUL
140
H FABIO
12-18 JUL
105
H GILMA
7-11 AUG
80
TS HECTOR
11-17 AUG
50
H ILEANA
27 AUG-2 SEP
85
TS JOHN
2-4 SEP
40
TS KRISTY
12-17 SEP
60
H LANE
15-19 SEP
80
MH MIRIAM
22-27 SEP
120
TS NORMAN
28-29 SEP
45
TS OLIVIA
6-9 OCT
60
H PAUL
13-17 OCT
120
---------------------------------------------------
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 9
10.
Track and Intensity forecast verification. Atlantic basin
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 10
11.
Track and Intensity forecast verification. Eastern North Pacific basin
TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(1), p. 11
12.
Other matters
NOAA/NWS has been engaged in capacity-building efforts within the region. NWS
IAO supports capacity-building, education and outreach activities in RA-IV through the
WMO's Voluntary Contribution Program (VCP). Many of the projects are in support of the
monitoring and warning of hurricanes operations of RSMC Miami, but the activities also
support the routine forecasting and operations of NMHSs in the region.
NOAA Tropical Training Desk: NOAA trains meteorologists from Central America and
from the Caribbean each year at the Tropical Desk at the NCEP HPC. Fellows are trained
on operational skills, including numerical weather prediction techniques. In addition, the
Spanish-speaking chief instructor for the Tropical Desk delivered week-long specialized
training courses for officials in Mexico and, this year, in El Salvador.
______