Anarchy and Culture: Insights from the Anthropology of War Jack Snyder jls6@columbia.edu February 5, 2001 Introduction In the post-Cold-War era, both scholars and public activists have taken up a debate of the most fundamental importance over the prospects for a dramatic transformation in the very nature of world politics. Much of this debate hinges on conceptions of the effect of culture on behavior in anarchy, that is, in situations where no overarching authority has enforcement power over politically autonomous actors. Those who foresee substantial opportunities to transform the lawless and warprone international system into a realm governed by benign norms contend that “anarchy is what states make of it.”1 In their view, culture, defined as a system of symbols that creates meaning within a social group, determines whether behavior in anarchy is bloody or benign. If more benign ideas and identities are effectively spread throughout the globe by cultural change and normative persuasion, then “ought” can be transformed into “is”: support for warlike dictators can be undermined, perpetrators of war crimes and atrocities can be held accountable, benign multicultural identities can be fostered, and international and civil wars will wane.2 Alexander Wendt, “Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics,” International Organization 46 (1992), 391-425. 2 Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink, “International Norm Dynamics and Political Change,” International Organization 52:4 (Autumn 1998), 916; Thomas Risse and Kathryn Sikkink, “The Socialization of International Human Rights Norms into Domestic Practice,” in Thomas Risse, Stephen Ropp, and Kathryn Sikkink, eds., The Power of Human Rights: International Norms and Domestic Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 1-38; Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 377-378; and almost any publication of Human Rights Watch. 1 2 In contrast, skeptics about such transformations argue that anarchy, whether among states coexisting in a self-help system or among contending groups inside collapsed states, gives rise to an inescapable logic of insecurity and competition that culture cannot trump.3 These skeptics fear that a transformative attempt to supersede self-help behavior amounts to reckless overreaching that will create backlashes and quagmires. Ironically, in this view, the idealist vanguard of the new world order will need to rely increasingly on old-fashioned military and economic coercion in a futile effort to change world culture for the better.4 This is a debate of compelling intellectual and practical import. It lays bare the most fundamental assumptions about the nature of world politics that underpin real policy choices about the deployment of the vast military, economic, and moral resources of the United States and other wealthy democracies. However, many of the leading voices in this debate, both in academic and broader public settings, overlook the decisive interplay between situational constraints and the creation of culture. Prophets of transformation sometimes assert that politics in anarchy and society is driven by “ideas almost all the way down.” They dismiss as negligible what Alexander Wendt calls “rump” material constraints rooted in biology, the physical environment, or other circumstances unalterable through changes in symbolism.5 For them, “agency” by political actors committed to social change consists primarily in working to alter prevailing principled ideas, such as promoting the norm of universal jurisdiction in the case of crimes against humanity. In contrast, working for improved outcomes within existing constraints of material power, for example, by bargaining with still powerful human rights abusers, does not count for them as true “agency;” rather it is 3 John Mearsheimer, Great Power Politics (New York: Norton Books, forthcoming); Mearsheimer, “The False Promise of Institutions,” International Security 19 (Winter 1994/95), 5-49; Barry Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” Survival 35:1 (Spring 1993), 27-47. 4 Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwartz, “For the Record,” The National Interest 57 (Fall 1999), 9-16. 5 Wendt, Social Theory, chapter 3; also underplaying material constraints are Risse and Sikkink, “Socialization,” 35-6. 3 mere myopic “problem-solving” within constraints.6 Conversely, when prophets of continuity discuss culture at all, they treat it as a largely unchangeable force that may have some effect in constituting the units competing for security, but that has at most a secondary effect on strategic interactions between those units, which are driven mainly by the logic of the anarchical situation.7 This is an unnecessarily truncated menu of possibilities for imagining the relationship between anarchy and culture. Ironically, in light of the ambitiously activist agenda of the proponents of cultural approaches to international relations, their onedimensional approach limits agents to a peculiarly limited set of tools for promoting political change. Few serious social theorists over the past two centuries, including those with a transformative agenda, have asked their readers to choose between analyses of society that are either material or symbolic “all the way down.” The scholarly pantheon populated by such figures as Karl Marx, Max Weber, Emile Durkheim, Antonio Gramsci, Claude Lévi-Strauss, Benedict Anderson, Ernest Gellner, and even Clifford Geertz has left a rich legacy of varying ways of thinking about the relationships among material circumstances, social structure, and cultural symbolism.8 Some, like Marx, have leaned toward reducing the cultural domain to the material, and others, like Geertz, have expended most of their energy exploring the internal logic of the cultural realm, yet even Robert W. Cox, “Social Forces, States, and World Orders,” in Robert Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics (New York: Columbia, 1986), 208. 7 Posen, “Ethnic Conflict;” Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security 15 (1990), 5-56; and works on ethnic partition cited by Daniel Byman and Stephen Van Evera, “Hypotheses on the Causes of Contemporary Deadly Conflict,” Security Studies 7:3 (Spring 1998), 49-50, including the somewhat more constructed yet largely realist view of the role of culture in ethnic conflict presented by Chaim Kaufmann, “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars,” International Security 20:4 (Spring 1996), 136-175. More balanced views can be found in the symposium on Wendt’s book in Review of International Studies, 26:1 (January 2000). 8 See the discussion of this problem in Marshall Sahlins, Culture and Practical Reason (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1976), chapters 1-3, especially chapter 3 on Marx. 6 4 these two, not to mention the others, have offered a wealth of ideas about the mutual interplay between cultural patterns and situational constraints.9 Current debates about anarchy and culture are impoverished not only theoretically, but also empirically. To assess the claim that behavior in an anarchical system is what the units and their culture make of it, the obvious methodological move is to vary the culture of the units or the system as a whole, and then assess the effect on anarchic behavior. Yet very little of the empirical discussion is set up this way. The contemporary transformative agenda of those who see anarchical behavior as culturally constructed leads many of them to look disproportionately at relatively contemporary changes, such as the peaceful end of the cold war, the emergence of the democratic peace, and the purported current strengthening of human rights norms.10 These kinds of tests, while not irrelevant, are not well designed to disentangle the effects of autonomous changes in ideas and culture from the effects of self-justifying American hegemonic power, an ideological pattern that was quite familiar in the old world order, or to distinguish the hopes of transitional moments from enduring trends. Even when cultural constructivists do look at behavior in anarchies in cultural settings radically different from our own, they sometimes fail to exploit obvious opportunities for focused comparison. For example, Iain Johnston’s prominent book, Cultural Realism, shows how the strategic wisdoms of the anarchical ancient Chinese Warring States system were passed down to future generations to constitute a warlike strategic “culture.” Yet his adherence to a cultural account of Chinese strategic practices remains untroubled by his observation that these ideas and practices were quite similar to those of the anarchic European balance of power system, the ancient Greek city states, On Geertz’s materialist side, see William H. Sewell, Jr., “Geertz, Cultural Systems, and History: From Synchrony to Transformation,” in Sherry B. Ortner, The Fate of “Culture”: Geertz and Beyond (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999), 35-55. 10 In addition to the works already cited, see Rey Koslowski and Friedrich Kratochwil, “Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire’s Demise and the International System,” in Richard Ned Lebow and Thomas Risse-Kappen, eds., International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1995). 9 5 and the ancient Indian states system described by Kautilya, a set of cultures diverse in almost every way except their strategic behavior.11 Insights from the anthropology of war Fortunately, scholars outside the field of political science have already compiled a body of research on the relationship between war and culture that is theoretically rich, empirically substantial, and methodologically rigorous. The most systematic of this work employs statistical research and qualitative case studies to examine war and violence in stateless societies and pre-industrial anarchic systems. For decades, the main focus of this energetic research program has been precisely to determine how inter-group warfare and other forms of violence are related to variations in material circumstances, social structure, and culture.12 Many of the causal factors and processes examined in this literature will seem strikingly familiar to students of modern international relations: e.g., security fears, economic rivalry between groups, economic interdependence, the institutionalization of cooperative ties across political units, the popular accountability of decision-makers, and the nature of identities and cultural symbolism of the political units and of the anarchic system as a whole. Notwithstanding the familiarity of many of these categories, the kinds of societies studied by anthropologists of war differ vastly from contemporary, industrialized, bureaucratized societies, and thus research findings on the anthropological history of war cannot simply be read off and applied to debates about the construction of culture in today’s “new world order.” Indeed, a central part of the constructivist claim is that the 11 Alastair Iain Johnston, Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995). Christian Reus-Smit, The Moral Purpose of the State: Culture, Social Identity, and Institutional Rationality in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), does compare different anarchical systems, but the variation in outcome that he seeks to explain is the style of diplomatic interaction, not the likelihood of war. 12 For surveys of this literature, see S. P. Reyna and R. E. Downs, eds., Studying War: Anthropological Perspectives (Amsterdam: Gordon and Breach, 1994); R. Brian Ferguson and Neil L. Whitehead, eds., War in the Tribal Zone: Expanding States and Indigenous Warfare (Santa Fe: School of American Research Press, 1992); Jonathan Haas, ed., The Anthropology of War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990). 6 spread of a new democratic culture may be on the verge of making obsolete all those old cultural patterns, whether they are those of the Cold War, the ancient Chinese Warring States, or rivalrous villages in the Venezuelan jungle.13 Moreover, evidence based on technologically primitive societies, some of which lack the minimal economic resources needed for assured survival, may load the dice in favor of explanations based on material pressures. Thus, the main value of reviewing this research is not to report any universally definitive findings on anarchy, culture, and war, but to expand our thinking about the varied ways in which situational constraints in anarchy may be related to the emergence of culture. Just as Geertz’s writings on Bali have stimulated constructivist thinking about social relations in more familiar settings, so too a look at anthropological research on warfare might help international relations scholars step outside of the limiting categories that they take for granted. Even so, the anthropologists have not solved all of our problems for us. Like political scientists, some anthropologists are themselves mired in a debate between unconvincing proponents of reductionist materialist and culturalist explanations of war.14 Moreover, many of those who have worked to integrate material and cultural elements arrange them hierarchically, with the material situation establishing constraints or problems that require institutional or cultural solutions. Yet this hierarchical approach, a carry-over from earlier functionalists like Bronislaw Malinowski, is compelling only when material pressures are overwhelming and cultural responses line up in a tidy fashion with them, which is seldom the case. Some anthropologists do refrain from hierarchically ranking the material and the cultural. Their case studies ably show how culture shapes material goals and capabilities, and conversely how material tasks and tools shape culture and institutions.15 Following their lead would require developing theories of behavior in anarchy that integrate material, institutional, and cultural components through a systems perspective. 13 Wendt, Social Theory, 323. For a recent work characterizing this debate, see Clayton Robarchek and Carole Robarchek, Waorani: The Contexts of Violence and War (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1998), 128. 15 Sahlins, Culture and Practical Reason, chapters 2 and 5; on Malinowski, p. 74. 14 7 Anarchy as a material-cultural system After reviewing this anthropological literature, I present some conjectures on the role of anarchy and culture in shaping patterns of war and peace, including those of the modern international system. I argue that anarchical systems are historical accretions of material, institutional, and cultural constraints and resources whose workings as systems can rarely be reduced to the effects of any single, hierarchically ranked element, whether material or cultural. Scholars and activists who seek to promote change in the anarchical international system need to understand the working of the system as a whole, not just one or another of its individual components, and to identify emerging contradictions in the system as opportunities for transformative action. This means that the prospects for the transformation of behavior in contemporary anarchical systems should be assessed not only in light of the rise of new ideas and cultural identities, but also in light of the material and situational preconditions needed to sustain these developments. The democratic peace provides a pertinent example. According to the bulk of contemporary theory and research, the absence of war between mature democracies depends on the material motivation of the average member of society to avoid needless death and impoverishment (goals widely if not universally shared across cultures), political institutions that predictably empower the median voter, and a set of cultural symbols sanctifying civil rights, free speech, and electoral legitimacy in ways that underpin those institutions, facilitate peaceful bargaining, and establish a non-threatening, “in-group” identity among democratic states. The democratic peace works best when these material, institutional, and cultural elements are all in place.16 Moreover, democracy itself has material preconditions. Adam Przeworski finds that transitions to democracy are almost always successfully consolidated in countries with a per capita annual income above $6,000 in 1985 constant dollars, whereas democratic transitions almost always suffer reversals below $1,000 (with a few 16 Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); John M. Owen, IV, Liberal Peace, Liberal War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997). 8 exceptions, such as India and Papua New Guinea).17 These economic levels may to some degree be proxies for closely related factors such as literacy and the development of a middle class. Between those levels, consolidation seems to depend on a number of institutional preconditions, such as the strength of the rule of law and the development of civil society organizations.18 The fact that these material and institutional preconditions often arise along with symbols and ideas supportive of democracy does not mean that democratic culture can somehow be a substitute for those conditions. Not surprisingly, Western jawboning in favor of free speech, fair elections, and human rights has borne little fruit in countries that lack these preconditions.19 There is no cultural shortcut to a global democratic peace. For these reasons, an escape route from the historically recurring pattern of warfare in anarchy is likely to be a dead end if it is planned with a road map that depicts ideas, norms, and culture going “all the way down.” Underestimating situational constraints is just as dangerous and unwarranted as the opposite mistake of reifying them. Instead of making either error, it seems more promising to grapple with the interrelationship of situational constraints, social institutions, and cultural symbols as factors that may influence the evolution of behavior in anarchical settings. In developing these arguments, I first define basic concepts and justify my approach to studying the effects of culture. Second, I review a variety of hypotheses that attempt to reduce the explanation of war behavior in anarchy to one of three types of causes: material, institutional, or symbolic-cultural. I examine their proposed causal mechanisms, discuss some of the evidence bearing on them, and comment on inference problems that arise in weighing this evidence. Third, I discuss two approaches that try to integrate situational, institutional, and cultural factors in explanations of war behavior in Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi, “Modernization: Theories and Facts,” World Politics, 49:2 (January 19997), 155-183; see also Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvarez, José Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), ch. 2. 18 Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1996), 7-15. 19 For a balanced assessment, see Thomas Carothers, Aiding Democracy Abroad (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999). 17 9 anarchy: hierarchical nesting approaches and systems approaches. I briefly discuss how these integrative approaches might be applied to understanding behavior in the anarchical European balance of power system of 1914. Finally, I return to the democratic peace and debates about transforming behavior in contemporary anarchies. Behavior in anarchy: basic definitions and analytic concepts The research program on war in the field of anthropology seeks to explain variations in the degree of organized political violence between autonomous political groups as a function of variations in (1) environmental, technological, and situational constraints, including the strategic implications of anarchy, (2) social institutions, and (3) culture. This literature assumes a variety of basic motives driving behavior, especially the physical survival of individuals and their success in genetic propagation, but sometimes posits additional social and psychological needs of various kinds. It examines a number of potential causal mechanisms linking individual motives and constraining structures to violent outcomes, such as selection through competition, strategic interaction, institutionalization through converging expectations, socialization through myths and rituals, and persuasive communication. Ethnographic case studies reconstruct causal processes and cultural meanings. Correlations among variables are typically established by statistical analyses of widely used, standardized databases, such as the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample of the characteristics of 186 pre-industrial societies during the nineteenth or twentieth centuries.20 Before discussing the findings of this literature, its basic terms need to be defined and its epistemological assumptions justified. Carol R. Ember and Melvin Ember, “Violence in the Ethnographic Record: Results of Cross-Cultural Research on War and Aggression,” in Debra L. Martin and David W. Frayer, eds., Troubled Times: Violence and Warfare in the Past (Amsterdam: Gordon and Breach, 1997), 3. Other databases include as many as 565 units, such as Murdock’s database on tribes, but most studies of war use more select samples in which the units are adequately documented. See Stanton K. Tefft, “Warfare Regulation: A Cross-Cultural Test of Hypotheses,” in Martin A. Nettleship, R. Dalegivens, and Anderson Nettleship, 20 10 War Bronislaw Malinowski, a founder of modern anthropology, defined war as “the use of organized force between two politically independent units, in pursuit of [the unit’s] policy.”21 Similarly, a recent statistical study based on the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample defines war as “socially organized armed combat between members of different territorial units.”22 Such studies offer no quantitative cutoff point comparable to the Correlates of War project’s benchmark of 1,000 battle deaths for distinguishing warfare from lesser forms of violence, but they do normally distinguish qualitatively between warfare organized by recognized group leaders and unsanctioned feuding activities by certain in-group members against certain out-group members. Wars in the Standard Sample often kill a higher proportion of the unit’s population than do modern wars.23 These studies and databases distinguish warfare between politically autonomous units sharing a common culture from warfare between groups having different cultures. Anarchy As in international relations research, political autonomy in the anthropological literature means the absence of an external enforcement authority wielding power over the unit. Such autonomous units, whether they are villages or nation-states, may and often do have social and normative ties linking them, but as long as the units enjoy autonomy of political decision-making, they stand in an anarchical relationship to each other. Thus, most anthropological studies of war are conceived in a way that structurally parallels the concern of international relations scholars with warfare between autonomous states in an eds., War, Its Causes and Correlates (Hague: Mouton, 1975), 699. Also, Lawrence Keeley, War before Civilization (New York: Oxford, 1996), 28-29 21 Bronislaw Malinowski, “Culture as a Determinant of Behavior,” in Factors Determining Human Behavior (Cambridge: Harvard Tercenary Publications, 1937), 142, quoted in Robert Carneiro, “War and Peace,” in Reyna and Downs, Studying War, 6. 22 Melvin Ember and Carol Ember, “Cross-Cultural Studies of War and Peace: Recent Achievements and Future Possibilities,” in Reyna and Downs, Studying War, 185-208, at 190. 23 Ember and Ember, “Cross-Cultural Studies of War and Peace in Reyna and Downs, Studying War, 190. 11 anarchic setting. As Kenneth Waltz notes, when structural conditions permit or encourage it, “many different sorts of organizations fight wars, whether those organizations be tribes, petty principalities, empires, nations, or street gangs.”24 Sometimes identifying the valid units of these anarchical systems can be problematic. Some of the most belligerent societies, such as those in Melanesia and South American jungles, live in politically autonomous villages, each loosely led by a headman. However, these villages sometimes split along the lines of kin groupings. Even when they do not split, they normally maintain crosscutting kin ties with rival villages, which often entail prohibitions on individuals killing their own kinfolk during inter-village combat.25 Insofar as kinship lineages sometimes have a decision-making structure that is no less authoritative than that of the villages, it may sometimes be debatable which should be treated as the basic unit of the anarchical system. Just as international relations scholars typically treat territorial units like states, rather than ethnic groups or other crosscutting loyalty networks, as the basic units in anarchy, so too anthropologists tend to treat residential villages as their units in anarchy, while also recognizing that non-territorial lineages can play a decisive role, for example, in mobilizing power at higher levels of aggregation, such as the tribe. Conceptually, the 24 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979), 67. 25 Simon Harrison, The Mask of War: Violence, Ritual and the Self in Melanesia (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1993), 47. For a well-known argument along these lines, see also Napoleon Chagnon, “Yanomamo Social Organization and Warfare,” in Morton Fried, Marvin Harris, and Robert Murphy, eds., War: The Anthropology of Armed Conflict and Aggression (Garden City, NY: Natural History Press, 1968), 109159. Chagnon’s professional ethics have recently come under severe criticism from Patrick Tierney, Darkness in El Dorado: How Scientists Devastated the Amazon (New York: W. W. Norton, 2000). One of Tierney’s charges is that Chagnon’s distribution of trade goods intensified the warfare among the villages he was studying. This point, established and integrated into scholarly interpretations earlier by R. Brian Ferguson, Yanomami Warfare (New Mexico: School of American Research Press, 1995), bears on some of the theoretical implications of Chagnon’s research. Moreover, Tierney and others provide reason to believe that some of Chagnon’s basic data is unreliable. In this paper, I occasionally mention Chagnon’s interpretations insofar as they have occupied a significant place in the anthropological literature on war, but I do not rely on them in support of my own arguments. 12 crucial criterion should be not territoriality per se, but which type of unit exhibits the greatest decision-making autonomy. Culture and institutions Today most anthropologists define culture as a system of symbols that creates meaning within a social group.26 This definition is generally in accord with standard usage among social constructivists in the field of international relations, who see culture (along with two of its components, norms and identity) as a central concept in their ideasbased account of politics. However, some anthropologists studying war define culture in a more encompassing way that includes not only language and symbols, but also social institutions and prevailing patterns of behavior. Indeed, the anthropological research program on war and culture had its beginnings when culture was commonly defined in this broad way, and this broad definition is making a comeback in some circles.27 In that tradition, even recent statistical studies of culture and warfare, such as that by the political scientist Marc Ross, are apt to define culture in the old way as “the particular practices and values common to a population living in a given setting,” including “both beliefs and norms about action and behaviors and institutional practices.”28 In this view, culture is nearly everything except the weather.29 26 For the nuances of definitional debates about the concept, see Sherry Ortner, “Introduction,” in Ortner, ed., The Fate of “Culture”: Geertz and Beyond, 7-11. 27 Richard Shweder, “Rethinking the Object of Anthropology (and Ending Up Where Kroeber and Kluckhohn Began),” Items and Issues (Social Science Research Council), 1:2 (Summer 2000), 7-9; Shweder, “The Confessions of a Methodological Individualist,” Culture and Psychology 1 (1995), 115-122. 28 Ross, The Culture of Conflict, 21. Note that Ross’s definition of culture has evolved in his more recent work. Ross, Culture and Identity inn Comparative Political Analysis,” in Mark Lichbach and Alan Zuckerman, Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), 42-80. 29 An anthropologist commented on an earlier draft: “maybe even including the weather!” 13 One of the advantages of the newer definition, which limits culture to meaningful symbols, is that it facilitates distinguishing culture from other social phenomena, especially institutionalized patterns of behavior. This is important for scholars of international relations, who have developed institutional theories of behavior in anarchy (whether based on domestic institutions like the democratic peace or on international institutions like multilateralism) that are generally seen as distinct from cultural theories. Thus, most international relations scholars will want to distinguish institutional from cultural hypotheses when reviewing anthropological research on war. To that end, I define an institution as a conventional pattern of behavior around which expectations converge.30 The habit of cross-cousin marriages, the holding of periodic elections, and the coordination of military action by orders from a General Staff are examples of institutions. War itself is an institution only if, as some anthropologists argue, patterns of engagement with the enemy are governed to a significant extent by conventions, in the manner rule-governed sporting events, rather than by unregulated strategic optimizing behavior.31 Even with this definition, it is still not easy to draw a sharp line demarcating institutions from cultural symbols in concrete social settings. Both institutions and culture are part of the process by which people coordinate their behavior in groups. Symbols (ideas) may serve as focal points to guide the coordination of expectations in cases where purely pragmatic strategic calculations could yield multiple equilibria or no equilibria.32 Moreover, institutions tend to be shored up by symbols (norms) that convince people to behave in accord with institutionalized practices for moral reasons, and not simply for the practical benefits of coordinating behavior with the expectations of others. Nonetheless, the distinction in principle remains clear: culture is a system of symbols; institutions are conventional, repeated behavior. 30 Walter Powell and Paul DiMaggio, eds., The New Institutionalism in Organizational Analysis (Chicago: University of California, 1991); Andrew Schotter, The Economic Theory of Social Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), 9. 31 For this view, see Harrison, Mask of War, 101. 32 Judith Goldstein and Robert Keohane, Ideas and Foreign Policy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993), especially the chapter by Barry Weingast and Geoff Garrett. 14 This distinction clarifies the nature of culture as an explanatory variable. This is somewhat ironic, since anthropologists like Geertz who champion the newer symbolcentered definition of culture are often opposed to understanding social life in terms of causal variables. In part, this is because they are more interested in understanding the meaning that social life has for participants in it than they are in explaining or predicting behavior, so treating culture as a variable would be pointless in terms of the objectives of their research. In contrast, constructivist scholars in international relations adhere to the symbolic or idea-based conception of culture in large part because it allows the posing of non-tautological propositions about the effect of ideas on behavior.33 This epistemological move is warranted so long as it remains consistent with the ontology underpinning the newer approaches to culture. This requires that culture not be conceived as a mechanical causal attribute but as a medium of communication and persuasion that enables and channels discussion about social relations.34 For this reason, I prefer the definition of culture as a symbolic system used in communication. However, some of the anthropological literature on warfare that I discuss subsumes institutions under the heading of culture, and also treats culture as a set of reified attributes rather than a symbolic medium. In referring to this work, I make clear how its definition of culture differs from the strictly symbolic one. Another methodological problem arises in defining the appropriate unit of analysis for cultural propositions about behavior in anarchy. In principle, behavior in anarchy might be shaped by the separate cultures of the politically autonomous units, by the shared culture of the anarchical society as a whole, or by both. Ethnographic case studies may discuss either or both. Quantitative anthropological literature typically defines “external” war as organized violence between culturally distinctive societies, whereas “internal” war takes place between politically autonomous units, such as villages 33 Johnston, Cultural Realism, 35-39; Peter Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996), 65-68. 34 For background, see Thomas Risse, “‘Let’s Argue!’ Communicative Action in World Politics,” International Organization 54:1 (Winter 2000), 1-40. 15 or bands, that are culturally the same.35 This creates the opportunity to study whether commonalities of culture affect the prevalence of warfare between groups. However, it does not help to answer the question of whether warfare is more common in anarchical than hierarchical settings, because even the “internal” conflicts are between autonomous units. The material and situational setting It is difficult to draw a sharp line between explanations for war that focus on material or situational constraints and those that focus on the groups’ institutions or culture. Basic biological needs and features of the physical environment impose material constraints that may affect the prevalence of warfare, yet at the same time, human institutions and culture may exert powerful effects on the ecological setting in which social competition and cooperation takes place. Also ambiguous is the category “anarchy,” which is often considered one of the material explanations for war. However, the very definition of anarchy is an institutional one: it is the lack of authoritative institutions to govern social relations between autonomous groups. Yet the lack of such institutions means that the relations between the groups are played out in a setting where the material capabilities of the units and the material constraints on their strategies are the ultimate arbiter. Finally, so-called material explanations for war sometimes hinge on prevailing military or economic technologies, which are self-evidently products of human ingenuity, institutions, and ideas. Alexander Wendt, for example, identifies technology, including the “mode of production,” as one of the “rump material” factors that may to some degree shape behavior in anarchy, whereas “the social relations of production” he locates squarely in the non-material zone.36 While remaining mindful of the problematic nature of the dividing line between material-situational and institutional-cultural influences, I propose two rules of thumb for making this distinction: 35 36 Ross, Culture of Conflict, 81-89; Tefft, “Warfare Regulation,” in Nettleship, 694. Wendt, Social Theory, 109. 16 (1) whether the material-situational constraint or capability arose for some reason unrelated by intention or immediate functional necessity to the phenomenon under investigation. For example, the rise of sedentary agriculture as a technology and mode of production seems to have increased the frequency of warfare, but it was not developed in order to fight wars, so it counts as an exogenous material-situational factor; in contrast, insofar as the state was developed precisely in order to fight wars better, it counts as an institutional factor. (2) whether social actors can escape the material-situational constraint in the short run by institutional or cultural innovations. Reciprocal fears of surprise attack in anarchy, whether between Amazonian hunting bands or modern states, can often be mitigated by phased reciprocal demobilization and mutual monitoring, combined with explanations of intentions.37 With respect to this problem, anarchy may indeed be what the actors make of it. In contrast, it may be much harder to devise a credible commitment not to exploit a massive impending shift in relative power, since any assurances will be viewed as cheap talk unless the institutional and cultural bases for trust have been established well before the emergence of the trend in relative power.38 If so, actors may be captives of the logic of a situation that their cultural ingenuity cannot appreciably change in time to avert preventive war. Hypotheses from anthropological research on war and peace in anarchy In the following sections, I will review some of the most prominent hypotheses examined in the anthropological literature on behavior in anarchy, laying out their motivational assumptions and causal mechanisms, and highlighting some relevant research findings. I will address in turn material-situational, institutional, and cultural explanations of war and peace.39 In these three sections, I will assess reductionist 37 For an example, see Napoleon Chagnon, Yanomamo, fifth ed. (Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace, 1997), 218-221. 38 Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30 (January 1978); James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization 49 (Summer 1995), 379-414. 39 Ferguson, “A Savage Encounter,” in Ferguson, Tribal Zone, 201, calls these the infrastructural, structural, and superstructural factors. 17 theories that attempt to explain war behavior solely in terms of variation of each of these three kinds or that include the other types of variable only in a subordinate way. After showing the shortcomings of the reductionist strategies, I turn in subsequent sections to a fuller examination of the interrelationships between causal factors of these different types. Material-situational hypotheses Anarchical environments may be conducive to war for a variety of material reasons. International relations scholars have paid particular attention to the exceptionally dramatic possibility that mutual security fears in anarchy may be sufficient to cause war between groups that have no other reason to fight.40 In this sense, anarchy might be seen as an active cause of conflict. However, there are other material causes of war in which anarchy serves only as a permissive cause or as an exacerbating factor. Groups in anarchy may fight in a zero-sum competition over scarce resources that they both need to survive, because no superior authority prevents this and because institutional mechanisms needed to implement less costly methods of distributing and utilizing resources are missing. Groups in anarchy may also fight over material and biological objectives that are not immediately necessary for survival, yet are highly valued across most cultural settings, such as improving opportunities for their members to procreate or gain material wealth. In addition, they may fight to maintain their reputations for fierceness and bravery, not because these qualities are arbitrarily valued in the culture, but because they are advantageous for competing successfully in anarchy. Whether mutual fear is the primary cause or merely a permissive cause, once the cycle of warfare has begun, security fears may intensify and sustain conflicts beyond the point that the material stakes would have otherwise warranted.41 Thus, according to the Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.” On the conceptual interrelationship between predation and insecurity, see Jack Snyder and Robert Jervis, “Civil War and the Security Dilemma,” in Barbara Walter and Jack Snyder, eds., Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999). 40 41 18 realist perspective, groups in anarchy will resort to war recurrently as long as security is scarce and war is feasible as a method of obtaining resources. Groups who do not seize opportunities to improve their strategic position through warfare will, in this view, tend to be selected out by the unforgiving process of competition with more warlike groups. The findings of anthropological research on behavior in anarchy are quite consistent with these hypotheses. Indeed, most anthropologists conducting systematic research on this topic consider material-situational constraints and incentives to be the necessary starting point for any analysis.42 Over 90% of the pre-industrial societies sampled in quantitative studies experienced wars between autonomous units within the cultural group (“internal wars”) at least once per decade, unless they had been pacified through conquest by an outside power, and about half fought almost constantly. About 70% fought frequent wars against other cultural groups (“external wars”).43 This extremely high frequency of warfare in anarchy is not in itself proof of realist hypotheses. Other theories might also predict frequent fighting. For example, Social Identity Theory, based on laboratory experiments showing an almost universal tendency to form instant in-group preferences and out-group stereotypes, predicts rivalry in anarchy for the psychological reason that seeing one’s own group as superior bolsters an individual’s self-esteem.44 In contrast, the near universality of warfare in anarchy does not speak well for theories that rest on culture “all the way down.” It is difficult to see why so many different cultures would wind up with war-fueling symbolic systems unless some nearly universal features of situation, psychology, or biology were pushing the development of culture in this direction. To solve this awkward problem, Wendt tries to appropriate Social Identity Theory for the cultural approach, but since this is a theory R. Brian Ferguson, “The General Consequences of War: An Amazonian Perspective,” in Reyna and Downs, eds., Studying War, 85-111. 43 Ember and Embers, “Violence in the Ethnographic Record,” in Martin and Frayer, Troubled Times, 5; Tefft, “Warfare Regulation,” in Nettleship, War, 701; Keith Otterbein, Feuding and Warfare (Amsterdam: Gordon and Breach, 1994), 184. The way these percentages are calculated is a matter of debate, but it is generally agreed that the correct percentages are quite high. 44 Jonathan Mercer, “Anarchy and Identity,” International Organization 49 (Spring 1995), 229-252. 42 19 about alleged universal psychological tendencies, not about culture, it fits uneasily with the basic ontology the cultural theorists propound.45 SECURITY FEARS IN ANARCHY Anthropologists’ findings about the most prominent causes of wars offer further qualified support to realist analyses. Security fears are high on the list. Anecdotally, descriptions of life in some of the most warlike societies read like caricatures of the historical European balance-of-power system on a particularly bad day. Hobbesian analyses are also popular among scholars who have studied primitive warfare in such culturally and ecologically diverse settings as highland New Guinea, the Amazon jungle, and Central Africa.46 Similarly, statistical studies show that fear and mistrust of outsiders correlate strongly with war-proneness. Some studies argue that this is a function of cultural attributes, but others claim that it reflects real variations in the intensity of the material insecurities facing the society. Where mistrust of outsiders and war are correlated, it is normally hard to tell which is causally prior. However, Carol and Melvin Ember have devised an elegant test that shows the independent effect of material insecurity on both mistrust and war. The Embers find that in the societies they sampled mistrust and war were both highly correlated with the experience of a natural disaster that threatened the group’s food supply.47 It is less certain whether more routine or endemic food shortages due to periodic drought, pests, or rising population increase war involvement, once the effects of unpredictable food disasters are controlled for.48 For example, comparative studies of 45 Wendt, Social Theory, 241-2, 322-3, 350-1. Bruce Knauft, From Primitive to Postcolonial in Melanesia and Anthropology (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 1999), 94, 135, 154, 166; Keeley, War before Civilization, 5-8; Marshall D. Sahlins, Tribesmen (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1968), 4-13. 47 Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 192-93. 48 Ferguson, “Introduction,” in Ferguson, ed., Warfare, Culture, and Environment (Orlando: Academic Press, 1984), ch. 1; Peggy Reeves Sanday, Female Power and Male Dominance: On the Origins of Sexual Inequality (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), 174; Robert Carneiro, “Chiefdom-Level Warfare as Exemplified in Fiji and the Cauca Valley,” in Haas, ed., 191; Ember and Ember, “Violence in the Ethnographic 46 20 different regions in New Guinea show that the ratio of population density to food availability is not a good predictor of war, though perceptions of food scarcity may be.49 Foraging bands (hunters and gathers), which are on average less vulnerable to unpredictable food crises than are settled agricultural groups, tend to fight wars somewhat less frequently.50 However, this may reflect the more egalitarian social institutions typical of foragers, rather than the direct effects of food shortages, and also the fact that foragers’ mobile lifestyle makes the accumulation of wealth inconvenient, so there is less to fight over.51 In short, apart from the extreme case of food disasters, it seems that material shortage affects the likelihood of war only in conjunction with other social, cultural, or perceptual conditions. DISTINGUISHING MATERIAL AND CULTURAL CAUSES OF CONFLICT Although material causes sometimes work in combination with cultural ones, we should not assume too quickly that most material factors are really “culture.” Sometimes the reverse is more nearly the case. Some practices in anarchy that at first glance seem exotic and “cultural” turn out upon closer examination to serve a clear material and strategic function. For example, the Yanomamo invite newly allied villages to feasts to cement the pact and establish its terms. During these events, men from the respective villages take turns slugging each other in the chest as a test of strength and toughness. The outcome of the competition determines the terms of trade in exchanges of women Record,” in Martin and Frayer, Troubled Times, 8, show weaker correlations for predictably chronic or periodic food stress. 49 Knauft, From Primitive to Postcolonial ,124-5; M. J. Meggitt, Blood Is Their Argument: Warfare Among the Mae-Enga Tribesmen of the New Guinea Highlands (Palo Alto: Mayfield, 1977), 183 50 Embers in Martin and Frayer, 7, 10-13. 51 Ferguson, “Violence and Warfare in Prehistory,” in Martin and Frayer, 336. In another purported example of the effect of material incentives for war short of threats to survival, some authors argue that when food is not in short supply, groups turn their attention to fighting for opportunities to procreate with the women of the vanquished foe. See Chagnon, “Reproductive and Somatic Conflicts of Interest,” in Haas, 88-89. However, Tierney, Darkness in El Dorado, chapter 10, casts doubt on this argument. Statistical research, moreover, shows no correlation between scarcity of women and the frequency of warfare. See Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 191. 21 and goods between the villages, and also the allocation of rights to use hunting lands.52 Sometimes the feasts are a ruse, and the stronger village massacres its guests. This coercive bargaining behavior, despite its partly conventional nature, can be interpreted in large part in terms of material-situational influences on violence. Material and situational factors affect the warlikeness of groups not only by shaping their strategic calculations but also by selection through competition. Even proponents of cultural explanations of war and peace generally acknowledge that belligerence toward outside groups was functional among pre-industrial peoples. Warlike cultures tended to displace non-warlike ones. The latter were either wiped out, incorporated, pushed into inhospitable ecological niches, or forced to develop their own warlike states in order to survive. Outlier cases for cultural theories, which show a mismatch between benign internal cultural attributes and warlike external behavior, are typically ones that were forced to adapt their foreign policies to an increasingly rough neighborhood.53 Despite the undeniable fact that material circumstances may exert a strong impact on culture, numerous attempts to entirely subsume cultural factors under material causes have met with only limited success. Alan Barnard claims that “most anthropologists see the relations between society and the rest of the world order in a hierarchical and essentially Durkheimian way, with society sandwiched between the environment and the cosmology, and with a causal transformative relation between these elements” such that environment shapes society, which in turn shapes cosmology.54 Along those lines, a number of scholars have examined whether the symbolic content of a society’s myths and ideology can be predicted by knowing its material circumstances or mode of production.55 Some of their findings are consistent with this hierarchical view of causation, in which Ferguson, “A Savage Encounter,” in War in the Tribal Zone, 219-220. Ross, Culture of Conflict, 94, 142-3; see also Ferguson in Reyna and Downs, 103, Gregor in Haas, 107. 54 Alan Barnard, “Modern hunter-gatherers and early symbolic culture,” in Robin Dunbar, Chris Knight, and Camilla Power, eds., The Evolution of Culture (New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1999), 50-70. 52 53 22 cultural symbols are the epiphenomena of material factors, but for the most part their relevance to war behavior seems tenuous. Hunting societies, for example, have origin myths in which the creator is masculine, whereas gatherers may have either masculine or feminine mythic creators. Hunting groups are somewhat more war-prone than gatherers, though agriculturalists, which have both masculine and feminine mythic creators, are more war-prone even than hunters.56 Both hunting and gathering societies have no social stratification except by age and by gender, and correspondingly have conceptual world ordering principles based on binary oppositions (such as male and female), whereas agricultural societies tend to have social status hierarchies and conceptual principles based on symbolic triadic divisions into upper, middle, and lower categories.57 Arguably this hierarchical symbolic universe helps to underpin the hierarchic social order that makes war more likely. More directly related to war is the materialist-reductionist finding that cultural narratives featuring capricious violence correlate with ecological threats.58 Overall, however, anthropological research offers only limited support for the view that war-related cultural ideas can simply be read off from material circumstances. MATERIAL MOTIVES OF SUBUNITS The unit of analysis in studies of pre-industrial warfare is the politically autonomous unit. Because of the small size of the units, it is easy for ethnographers to trace the connections between the micro-motives of individuals and the strategies adopted 55 For example, Marvin Harris, Cultural Materialism (Vintage 1979); Morton Fried, The Evolution of Political Society (New York: Random House, 1967); Sanday, Female Power, 174; Ross, Culture of Conflict, 33-7. 56 Sanday, Female Power, 69. 57 Barnard, “Modern hunter-gatherers and early symbolic culture,” 58; R. Needham, Symbolic Classification (Santa Monica: Goodyear, 1979), 6-15. 58 Also potentially related to war through the mechanism of the marking off of rivalrous group boundaries is the practice of totemism, whereby the social group reinforces its sense of identity through symbolic association with the characteristics of a particular animal. This might count as a materialist explanation for group rivalry if totemism were clearly linked to a particular mode of production, but it is not. In Australia, totemism appears among hunter-gatherers, whereas in Africa it is associated with settled agriculture (and in North America with sports teams). Barnard, “Modern hunter-gatherers and early symbolic culture,” 59-61. 23 by their groups. In some cases, the material objectives of the group are essentially the same as the benefit that accrues to the typical members of the group. Survival of the unit and survival of the members may go hand in hand. In other cases, however, war strategies of the group may benefit a segment of the group’s members at the expense of the rest: e.g., a stronger lineage at the expense of a weaker one, men at the expense of women, leaders at the expense of followers. Brian Ferguson argues that the “master variable” explaining the war-proneness of the group is the “material self-interest of those who decide military policy,” which may or may not coincide closely with the material interest of the average group member.59 Thus, unlike many realist scholars of modern international relations, “realist” anthropologists of war are less wedded to the fiction that it is the autonomous political unit that seeks to survive and prosper rather than the individuals and coalitions that comprise it. They observe, as in the case of the Yanomamo, that units may fission when disadvantaged subgroups enjoy exit opportunities, as calculated in terms of adequate group size for self-defense, available allies, or secure locations to start a new village.60 Understood in this fashion, a material-situational view of behavior in anarchy leads naturally to an interest in internal institutional arrangements that affect who decides on war, who benefits from it, and how tensions between members’ motives affect the formation and survival of groups. Anthropological research finds that the material basis of a society strongly affects its likelihood of adopting a particular set of domestic institutions. Sedentary agriculture, for example, is associated with the rise of the state and with increasing inequalities of wealth and status, both of which, according to many if not all studies, increase the unit’s frequency of war involvement.61 WHEN DO MATERIAL EXPLANATIONS WORK BEST? 59 Ferguson in Martin and Frayer, 336. Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 200-203; Chagnon, “Effects of War on social Structure,” 146-7, 150. 61 For a critical review of hypotheses linking material infrastructure to patterns of social structure and war, see Ross, Culture of Conflict, chapter 3. 60 24 In short, the anthropological literature suggests that material and situational factors are among the better predictors of war in pre-industrial anarchies. Nonetheless, strong qualifications must be introduced before drawing conclusions about the relevance of straightforwardly realist theories to politics in anarchies in our own day. The direct effects of material-situational factors on pre-industrial warfare seem to have been strongest for societies living close to the margin of survival, where the combined effects of economic scarcity and reciprocal fears in anarchy were unusually compelling. Politics in these situations of extreme security compulsion may be somewhat analogous to the contemporary behavior of predatory warlord groups in failed states.62 As in Somalia at the beginning of the 1990s, in the midst of widespread famine and government collapse, insecurity is especially intense where economic security and security from attack are both scarce.63 This holds true both for pristine pre-industrial societies and for ones in contact with economically advanced societies. Military rivalry triggered by competition for Western manufactured goods among the Yanomamo strongly parallels today’s power struggles among would-be tinpot dictators for privileged access to the international gem trade, World Bank loans, and humanitarian aid.64 In contrast, anthropologists find that in more complex societies, the causes of war are more likely to be found in the institutional arrangements of the society than in the direct effects of ecological scarcity.65 Thus, patterns of anarchical behavior in institutionally underdeveloped settings should not be unreflectively extrapolated to the analysis of anarchical relations among rich, stable states. By the same token, solutions that work in rich, developed societies should not be extrapolated to economically poor, institutionally thin ones. 62 William Reno, Warlord Politics in African States (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998); Colin Kahl, “Population Growth, Environmental Degradation, and State-Sponsored Violence: The Case of Kenya, 1991-1993,” International Security 23:2 (Fall 1998), 80119; Paul Collier and A. Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2355. 63 David Laitin, “Somalia: Civil War and International Intervention,” in Walter and Snyder, eds.s, Civil Wars, 146-180. 64 Compare R. Brian Ferguson, Yanomami Warfare, to William Reno, Warlord Politics in African States (Lynne Rienner, 1998). 65 S. P. Reyna, “Preface,” in Reyna and Downs, Studying War, xxi, quoting Ferguson. 25 Even among simple societies hard-pressed by problems of security and economic scarcity, direct material causes of war were closely bound up with patterns of social structure and culture. Wendt gives away too much when he surrenders the explanation of most of pre-industrial history, when the death rate of political units was high, to materialist forces of competitive selection by war.66 Even in these settings, as the following sections show, outcomes were shaped by the interaction among material, institutional, and cultural facts, not by material ones alone. Ironically, the tendency to assign phenomena to either material or ideal categories, rather than to the interaction between them, leads Wendt in this instance to underrate the degree to which ideas and identities shaped behavior. Institutional hypotheses Behavior in anarchy may vary with the institutional arrangements inside the units, or with the strength and nature of the institutions that regularize links between the units. Literature on the anthropology of war has examined institutional hypotheses that are strikingly familiar to students of relations between modern states. Although many of these studies see a significant causal role for institutions, they also find that the significance of institutions in shaping conflict in anarchy needs to be interpreted in light of environmental and cultural factors as well. Institutional patterns within units may determine which interests are most powerful, how accountable are the leaders, and how easily the group can mobilize its capabilities for armed combat. Thus, internal institutions that allow elites to reap the gains of conquest, insulate elites from accountability, privilege military specialists, and facilitate military mobilization should make war more likely. Institutional patterns between the units may affect the predictability and transparency of the units’ interests and policies in ways that affect the likelihood of identifying mutually acceptable bargains. Thus, effective institutions that regularize relations between units should reduce the likelihood of war, except insofar as improved cooperation between some units comes at 66 Wendt, Social Theory, 323. 26 the expense of other units. Offensive leagues may facilitate conquest, for example, and cartels may collude to bring rivals to their knees. INSTITUTIONALIZED PATTERNS OF PARTICIPATION AND ACCOUNTABILITY Both quantitative and qualitative anthropological research supports the hypothesis that groups with widespread participation in decision processes and elite accountability have been less war-prone.67 This finding applies principally to patterns of “internal” war and peace, that is, to relations between autonomous political units within a homogeneous cultural group. As with the democratic peace hypothesis about modern states, these are units with widespread political participation that are not fighting each other. In contrast, political units and societies characterized by insulated leadership, hierarchy, and specialized military roles are more war-prone.68 For example, the Embers illustrate their statistical findings on these institutional effects by contrasting the warlike Marshallese Islanders, who were ruled by a stratified hereditary elite having absolute life and death powers over their subjects, to the peaceful Cuna Indians of Panama, whose elected chiefs could be sacked by popular demand at any time.69 Although this finding pertains on its face to the consequences of variations in political institutions, material circumstances and culture are also relevant to the analysis. In order to produce strong statistical results that “account for around 70 percent of the cross-cultural variation in frequency of internal war,” the Embers controlled for variations in the strategic setting, such as geographical isolation, and for the tendency of units to split up as a result of internal disputes.70 Thus, groups like the Yanomamo that are participatory but fission-prone are also war-prone. Since fissile groups wind up fighting each other after the break-up, it is important to know the reasons for the tendency to fission in the first place. Arguably, the Embers are smuggling the undertheorized fission variable, which may reflect cultural differences in the management of conflicts of all 67 Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, ch. 5, co-authored with Carol and Melvin Ember. 68 Fried, Evolution of Political Society; but for a study that fails to find this effect, see Ross, Culture of Conflict, 43-44. 69 Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 202-3. 27 types, into what seems to be an institutional hypothesis. Finally, the fact that the peacefulness of high-participation groups mainly affects the frequency of “internal” wars among culturally similar units strongly suggests that culture, and not simply institutional structure, is at work in some way. INSTITUTIONALIZED PATTERNS OF KINSHIP AND TRADE Even more research has focused on the consequences for warfare of variations in institutionalized patterns of kinship and economic exchanges. Such ties may affect the ability to sustain and mobilize fighting alliances. For example, when sons reside in the same village as their father, local armed conflict is much more likely. However, the causal direction is in dispute: some say that the institution of patrilocal residence facilitates the formation of brotherly aggressor forces who pick fights with neighboring villagers, whereas others say that in rough neighborhoods, parents keep their sons nearby for enhanced protection.71 Conversely, when sons live in their wives’ villages, the chance of success in external war (if not necessarily its frequency) is enhanced. The reason is that a wider net of social ties allows the mobilization of a larger coalition against external foes. For example, the dowry and residence customs of the Central African Nuer tribe created strong social debts and kinship ties between individuals in distant villages, which could be tapped to mobilize Nuer alliances to outnumber the hapless neighboring Dinka in any dispute. Dinka social institutions lacked these extensive networks, so collective action in wartime was harder to accomplish. As a result, the Dinka, a people otherwise at roughly the same level of technology and resources, were gradually pushed back by the inexorable Nuer depredations. This is an institutional explanation in the sense that it rests on social relationships forged by conventional patterns of behavior around which expectations of diffuse reciprocity converge. However, unless one takes the functionalist view that Nuer bride-price habits were somehow caused by the need to mobilize allies for war, this explanation rests also on the fortuitous normative (which is to say cultural) conviction 70 Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 202. 28 that relations with in-laws ought to be managed through the prevailing pattern of feasting and uxorilocal residence.72 Like theorists of “complex interdependence” and institutionalized cooperation in the field of international relations, many anthropologists have argued that the institutionalization of social or economic ties to out-groups is likely to mitigate the chance of violent conflict with them.73 Some argue that this is accomplished through marriage to potential enemies. As Claude Lévi-Strauss put it, groups in anarchy face the “very simple choice of either marrying out or being killed out.”74 However, some statistical findings suggest that exogamy is a two-edge sword: it creates bonds of reciprocity, but it also gives people in neighboring villages issues to fight about, such as the non-payment of dowry obligations. Some studies suggest that economic exchange unlinked to kinship obligations is a better way of forging reciprocal ties that mitigate conflict, at least with respect to “internal” wars between units that share a common culture.75 Others argue that exploitative marriage and trade ties increase war, whereas fair exchanges reduce it.76 What constitutes a fair exchange is likely to be determined by cultural standards. Ethnographies point out that the exchange of goods to institutionalize relations with potentially dangerous out-groups typically involves goods of mainly symbolic value, as in the ritualized “kula ring” exchanges of the Trobriand Islanders.77 Otterbein, Feuding and Warfare, 174-5; Ferguson, “A Savage Encounter,” in War in the Tribal Zone, 212; Ember and Ember in Martin and Frayer, 10. 72 Raymond C. Kelly, The Nuer Conquest: The Structure and Development of an Expansionist System (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 1985); E. E. Evans-Pritchard, The Nuer (Oxford: Clarendon, 1940); Otterbein, Feuding and Warfare, 176. For a statistical study that rejects the hypothesis that extensive kinship ties increase the probability of external war, see Tefft, “Warfare Regulation,” in Nettleship, War, 702. 73 Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, Power and Interdependence (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977); John Oneal and Bruce Russett, Triangulating Peace (New York: Norton, 2000). 74 Claude Lévi-Strauss, “The Family,” in Harry Shapiro, Man, Culture, and Society (New York: Oxford, 1971), quoted by Siskind, 869. 75 Tefft, “Warfare Regulation,” in Nettleship, 703. 76 Leopold Pospisil, “I Am Very Sorry I Cannot Kill You Anymore: War and Peace among the Kapauku,” in Reyna and Downs, Studying War, 123-5. 77 Rolf Ziegler, “The Kula: Social Order, Barter and Ceremonial Exchange,” in Michael Hechter, Karl-Dieter Opp, and Reinhard Wippler, eds., Social Institutions: Their Emergence, Maintenance, and Effects (New York: Aldine and de Gruyter, 1990), 14171 29 Indeed, since symbolic exchange is a sacred signal of an intention to enter into a normgoverned social relationship, exchanging symbolic goods may be more effective than the exchange of utilitarian goods as a means to cement relations in anarchy. Once again, institutionalized patterns of behavior interact with cultural understandings to affect the probability of war.78 Cultural hypotheses A people’s pragmatic ideas and cultural symbolism are problem-solving tools that help them get what they need and in turn shape what they want. Ideas and symbols play a crucial role in helping people maintain group solidarity, coordinate behavior with others, bargain effectively, manage conflicts of interest, and predict the consequences of their actions in natural and social contexts. Causal theories, rules of thumb, conventions, norms, and myths all play a role in these essential tasks. While some of this problemsolving mental life may follow familiar rules of scientific inference through processes like trial and error, much of it is conventional, ritual, arbitrary, and symbolic.79 Such symbolism is valuable not only to provide people with reassuring notions about unknowable aspects of life, death, and cosmology, but also as a set of costly, hard-to-fake signals of commitment to the group and its norms. Even materially poor societies commonly put a huge effort into conventionalized displays of solidarity, morality, roleinitiation, hospitality, status, or intimidation, taking pains to insure that myth-supported rituals are carried out with no shirking and at a high level of transparently emotional commitment.80 One reason that this is effective is that people internalize the symbolic 170; Marcel Mauss, The Gift: Forms and Functions of Exchange in Archaic Societies (New York: Norton, 1967). 78 For more on this, see Ross, Culture of Conflict, 40-4. 79 Bronislaw Malinowski, Magic, Science, and Religion and Other Essays (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 1984, orig. ed., Free Press, 1948), 17, 29; Marshall Sahlins, The Use and Abuse of Biology (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1976). 80 Chris Knight, “Sex and Language as Pretend Play,” in Robin Dunbar, Chris Knight, and Camilla Power, eds., The Evolution of Culture (New Brunswick: Rutgers University press, 1999), 228-231; Murray Edelman, The Symbolic Uses of Politics (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1985; orig. ed. 1964), 17; Maurice Bloch, Ritual, History, and Power (London: Athlone, 1989), 21-24. 30 message and are socialized to want what the culture prescribes. As Geertz says, “not only ideas, but emotions too, are cultural artifacts in man.”81 The nature of the group’s symbolic life is sure to be reflected in the group’s war behavior, and vice versa. Brian Ferguson remarks that “war is a virtual magico-religious magnet,” because it “involves, in extreme form, virtually all of the circumstances which have been invoked to explain religion and magic,” such as collective action, social control, group survival, and hazardous unknowns, not to mention “tragedy, injustice, and immorality” and therefore questions of ultimate meaning.82 Warfare occupies the terrain of cultural symbolism. However, this very fact creates a problem in testing hypotheses about the effect of the content of a culture’s symbolism on its war behavior. Insofar as situations of personal and group insecurity heighten and shape the symbolic character of politics, it could be the experience of war that calls forth certain kinds of myths and values rather than the other way around.83 Therefore, it will be a good methodological rule to look for connections not only between war behavior and overtly warlike symbols, but also between war and other aspects of the groups’ cultural life that are not directly functionally related to war. Just as some theorists try to subordinate the cultural appurtenances of war to its alleged material underpinnings, others try to reduce warfare to the status of a symbolic artifact of culture. Such cultural explanations for war in anarchy face two tasks: first, to explain why war has been so common in anarchy, and second, to explain variations in war’s frequency or intensity. They do tolerably well on explaining variation, but find explaining war’s near ubiquity more challenging. EXPLAINING THE PREVALENCE OF WARLIKE CULTURES As I mentioned above, recent proponents of the view that behavior in international relations is determined by culture, ideas, and identity have been inclined to fall back on psychological explanations such as Social Identity Theory to account for the pervasiveness of violent rivalry with out-groups in anarchy. This is a theoretically 81 82 Sahlins, Use and Abuse of Biology, 14, quoting Geertz, 1973. Ferguson, “Explaining War,” in Haas, 46. 31 unsatisfying move because it leaves culture little to explain in its own right: once it is posited that the need for self-esteem leads directly to in-group favoritism and out-group denigration, the development of rivalrous collective identities and cultures seems preordained. Moreover, when proponents of this view make the move to argue that individualist cultures and democracies are less prone to this bias than are collectivist cultures, it is hard to see how individualist cultures could arise in the first place if SIT is so universal and powerful.84 Wendt tries out one more line of argument: groups in anarchy fight so frequently because maintaining the identity of each leads to or even requires the enmity of the other.85 As a cultural explanation, this is a more promising approach, better grounded in a long lineage of social theory and research.86 Wendt develops this idea through the unnecessarily limited example of symbiotic rivalrous military-industrial complexes. This is by itself an insufficient explanation for near-universal warfare in anarchy, since many societies lack military specialists but nonetheless fight lots of wars. However, the underlying concept can be stated as a more general argument. Group solidarity depends on costly investments in an elaborate set of practices that motivate contributors to collective action, police boundaries, and sanction shirkers. These practices are backed up by a host of cultural symbols, including religious myths and ethical norms, which underwrite the kind of behavior and attitudes that make the group cohere and set it apart from other groups. “Durkheim taught that in religious worship society adores its own camouflaged image,” says Ernest Gellner. “In a nationalist age, societies worship themselves brazenly and openly.”87 These symbolic systems that explicitly or implicitly extol the in-group chafe on contact with rival cultures, say Peter Berger and Thomas 83 Edelman, Symbolic Uses, 30ff. Wendt; Mercer. 85 Wendt, Social Theory, 274-5. 86 See works by Georg Simmel, Lewis Coser, and other functionalist in-group/out-group literature reviewed in Arthur Stein, “Conflict and Cohesion,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, March 1976. The latter shows that external conflict increases internal cohesion only when the threat affects all group members, some cohesion existed before the conflict, and group action can parry the threat. 87 Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Ithaca: Cornell, 1983), 56. Guy Swanson, Birth of the Gods (1960), offers some quantitative empirical support for Durkheim’s argument. 84 32 Luckmann: “The appearance of an alternative symbolic universe poses a threat because its very existence demonstrates that one’s own universe is less than inevitable.”88 However, this argument fits awkwardly with the anthropological finding that “internal” war among units of the same culture is more frequent than war between societies with different cultures.89 For example, although Amazonian and Melanesian villages do engage in out-group denigration and in-group chauvinism, this cannot be caused by cultural differences, since different villages share the same myths, symbols, and ethical beliefs. Thus, a cultural reductionist would need to argue that groups maintain a common culture of symbiotic out-group rivalry in order to sustain the solidarity of the separate village units. This is exactly what anthropologist Simon Harrison argues based on his fieldwork on Melanesian warfare. He notes that villages are highly problematic as political units in the part of Melanesia he studied, because clans whose membership cuts across village boundaries have a strong functional basis as trading networks and a strong cultural basis in kinship norms. Thus, clan loyalties vie with village loyalties in the organization of fighting alignments and economic relationships. This is particularly troubling for men, says Harrison, because women play a key role in kin-based trading relationships, which they can use to pursue their independent economic objectives.90 Consequently men have an interest in reinforcing the priority of village-based loyalties and in policing the territorial boundaries of the village. They do this, he argues, by forming non-kin-based secret societies of the village’s mature men, who carry out deadly but highly ritualized warfare in case of encroachments or transgressions by members of other villages.91 This ritualized killing, which entails the only cannibalism permitted in a culture that otherwise 88 Peter Berger and Thomas Luckmann, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Anchor edition, 1967; orig. ed. Doubleday, 1966), 100. 89 Moreover, Ferguson and Whitehead argue that “it would be an extremely rare occurrence for members of one tribe to attack members of another simply because they are different, apart from any other source of conflict.” War in the Tribal Zone, 28. 90 Harrison, 8, 47. 91 Harrison, 61, 75-77. 33 abhors it, implicates male members of all the clans in the village in a collective transgression that reinforces village unity, in Harrison’s view.92 Harrison argues that his interpretation turns Hobbes on his head: “In Melanesia it is not so much groups that make war, but war that makes groups. That is to say, war is part of the way in which groups having claims or interests in resources assert their existence in the first place. It is through conflict that these groups separate themselves out from each other and constitute themselves as distinct entities capable of competing for resources.”93 Moreover, he argues the war-making process accomplishes these ends by its symbolic effects, not just by its strategic consequences: “What they were trying to do in war and ritual was not simply use power against outsiders and act against them at the level of force, but also to act ideologically against the perpetual moral accountability to outsiders which implicitly threatened the idea of the community as a political entity.”94 Harrison’s interpretation is impressive, and its basic line of argument might be highly generalizable once particulars are adjusted to take into account different social settings. However, its theoretical implications are unclear. Instead of turning Hobbesian or materialist-functionalist explanations on their heads, it might be seen as reinforcing them: in the self-help situation of anarchy, where warfare is an ever-present possibility, a self-interested group having a comparative advantage in the use of violence (in this case, co-residential men) fights other groups (in this case, other villages of the same culture, other villages of a different culture, and non-territorial kin-groups) to establish security, economic advantages, and prestige defined in terms of power. The fact that this is accomplished with a heavy overlay of highly dramatic symbolism does little to demonstrate that cultural rather than material-strategic should take precedence in the causal hierarchy. Moreover, invoking my methodological rule for establishing the independence of cultural effects, nothing in Harrison’s story shows that the outcome was driven by more general cultural patterns that were prior to or functionally unrelated to warfare. 92 Harrison, 89. Harrison, 18. 94 Harrison, 150. 93 34 In short, attempts to use culture to explain why war has been so prevalent in anarchy run into serious theoretical and empirical problems. Insofar as many cultural systems do feature warlike symbolism, this seems more readily explained as a by-product of more basic causes: either the inherent insecurity of life in anarchy, as the realists have argued, or perhaps some innate psychological bias in the way in-groups perceive outgroups, independent of culture. CULTURAL EXPLANATIONS OF VARIATIONS IN WARMAKING Culture is better suited to explain variations in the frequency of war in anarchy than it is to explain its overall prevalence. Whether culture is conceived as a symbolic system or as a set of norm-laden practices, anthropologists find that the frequency and intensity of war correlates with a generalized culture of mistrust, fear, and harshness in social relationships. The Embers find, for example, that fear of nature and fear of others is one of the strongest correlates of war.95 Socialization to distrust seems to be more fundamental than socialization to aggression itself. When war-prone societies are pacified by outside powers, aggressive attitudes dissipate, but attitudes of generalized mistrust tend to remain.96 Or put differently, aggression seems to be more situational, mistrust more dispositional or cultural. On the plane of ideas and symbols, myths in warlike societies often feature tales of violence, threat, and fearful imagery. Likewise, folk tales in such societies, especially ones that have experienced unpredictable food shortages, commonly depict capricious aggression.97 For example, Yanomamo mythology centers on fierce jaguars with quasihuman traits and on the putatively historical self-destruction of the community through an out-of-control episode of murder and rape.98 Yanomamo villages in the most conflict- 95 Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 194. Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 192. 97 Alex Cohen, “A Cross-Cultural Study of the Effects of Environmental Unpredictability on Aggression in Folktales,” American Anthropologist 92 (1990), 474-481; Ember and Ember in Reyna and Downs, 193-5. 98 Sanday, 49-50. 96 35 prone regions believe that their people originated from blood falling from the wounded moon, but Yanomamo in less conflictual areas lack that myth.99 Moreover, such cosmological myths may be closely tied to norms of everyday behavior. Those Yanomamo areas with sanguinary myths are also are the epicenter of the waiteri cult of fierceness, which motivates and regulates social practices like ritualized tests of strength and aggressiveness at feasts, governs status relations within the village through the distinction between men who have killed and those who have not, determines opportunities to marry, justifies male-female violence within the village and raiding for women from other villages, motivates men to participate in warfare, and destabilizes alliance politics. Expectations of armed rivalry and the glorification of fighters affect the material circumstances of conflict through female infanticide and the consequent need to raid for mates. Moreover, the fact that slash-and-burn agriculture is a mode of production that is consistent in other settings with minimal warfare suggests that material factors by themselves provide little purchase on the self-destructive behavior of the Yanomamo, which looks very much like a culturally-induced equilibrium. Of course, fear-inducing myths that directly depict violence are just as likely to be a consequence of warfare as a cause of it. The same may be true of indirect symbols and norms that on their face seem unrelated to war. For example, Peggy Sanday reports that the extensiveness of menstrual taboos correlates strongly with the war-proneness of the society. Since neither of these correlates strongly with gender inequality in social relations, Sanday contends that this is a matter of cultural symbolism, rather than a consequence of warrior men using the prevalence of external violence to impose restrictions of their women. Sanday argues that the blood of menstruation is symbolic of the blood of battle, a link that is underscored by the fact that in these exogamous groups, men marry the kin of the people they kill in war. “The perception of women as dangerous may mirror the hostile relations with groups from which wives are acquired,” Sanday conjectures.100 If so, it seems more likely that war gives rise to the symbolism than the other way around. Although Sanday shows that this myth complex is more common in 99 Ferguson, “Savage Encounter,” in War in the Tribal Zone, 224. Sanday, 104-5. 100 36 hunting societies than in gathering ones, the most well-known case of a war-prone people with extreme menstruation phobias, the Mae Enga of New Guinea, are pig breeders who live in exogamous warring villages.101 In this example, war, anarchy, the mode of production, kinship systems, and symbolic culture seem tied to together in probabilistic rather than deterministic ways, and the direction of causation is hard to trace and may be reciprocal. In a rigorous multiple-methods study of the relationship between war and culture in anarchy, Marc Ross shows that the overall level of conflict, including warfare, is best predicted by the harshness of a society’s child-rearing practices, the socialization of children to generalized mistrust of others, and the level of male gender-identity conflict. The latter variable is manifested in such forms as aloof relations with fathers, severe rites of passage to manhood, and male ambivalence in relations with women, which is exemplified by the Mae Enga’s extreme menstruation taboos and separate housing for men and women.102 Social structure, including kinship patterns, affects whom people will fight against, but these psychocultural variables determine how much they fight, Ross says. Some of these statistical correlations may be consistent with a reverse causal interpretation, in which boys are steeled for toughness in societies that face intense security threats because they live in tough neighborhoods where the means of survival are scarce. Ross does not statistically control for ecological scarcity, though in narrative discussions he acknowledges that these factors can be important. Even so, it seems implausible to explain away all of these correlations as indirect consequences of living in dangerous circumstances. Brian Ferguson’s case study research similarly observes that war-prone societies often have harsh, fearful, vindictive cultural practices, but he is more skeptical than Ross about the causal direction. Revenge rationales, he argues, are highly malleable. Groups and individuals will take revenge on those who are weaker, but let bygones be bygones with respect to stronger transgressors. Likewise, he argues, allegations of witchcraft are not causes of conflict but rather are a mode of expressing a conflict that arises for some 101 M. J. Meggitt, Blood Is Their Argument: Warfare Among the Mae-Enga Tribesmen of the New Guinea Highlands (Palo Alto: Mayfield, 1977). 37 other, more pragmatic reason.103 However, even if pragmatic factors are important, this still raises the question of why hostility takes the form of witchcraft beliefs and practices, and what independent effects these may have in increasing or mitigating armed violence. The few societies that experience little or no war tend to have benign patterns of social relations among group members, but this is not always the case. At the benign end of the continuum, the peaceful Mbuti pygmies have dense, mutually supportive social networks, collective child-care, rituals that stress nurturing relations with people and nature, anti-competitive norms, high levels of in-group trust, no hierarchy, no wealth, and forest homes that provide them something of a haven from Bantu neighbors.104 However, some other societies take very different routes to peace. The peaceful Cayapa hunters, who live in dispersed jungle households in highland Ecuador and Colombia, are the biggest outliers in Ross’s dataset. They have harsh, capricious childhood socialization practices, and adults are highly suspicious of each other -- so much so that they avoid everyone who is not kin.105 This is reminiscent of Rousseau’s prescription for overcoming the danger of war in an anarchical system of states: remain isolated and materially poor so that nobody bothers to come calling.106 In contrast, the tribes of the Upper Xingu region of Brazil maintain peace through a myth-reinforced system of mutual deterrence under high levels of social and economic interdependence. They fear people from neighboring villages, including their witchcraft, and therefore prudently avoid showing anger towards them. As part of a self-conscious strategy of controlling impulses to aggression, they avoid eating spicy food or red meat, which they worry will make them choleric and bloody-minded. Myths drive home the dangers that lie in store for people who lose self-control and become like the wild, animalistic, aggressive tribes who live in the nearby hinterlands.107 102 Ross, Culture of Conflict, 60-64, 77-84, 125-6. Ferguson, “Savage Encounter,” in War in the Tribal Zone, 223-4. 104 Ross, Culture of Conflict, 7-8. Similar examples are the Lepchas of Nepal, Culture of Conflict, 89-92, and the !Kung Bushmen 105 Ross, Culture of Conflict, 136-8. 106 J. J. Rousseau, Paix Perpétuelle; Stanley Hoffmann, The State of War. 107 Thomas Gregor, “Uneasy Peace: Intertribal Relations in Brazil’s Upper Xingu,” in Jonathan Haas, ed., Anthropology of War, 105-124. 103 38 CULTURE AS A TOOLKIT Many scholars who see culture as an important element shaping behavior in anarchy implicitly depict individuals and political units as passive captives in the grip of group myths and norms. In contrast, and perhaps somewhat ironically, many material determinists implicitly depict individuals and units as active agents strategizing within constraints. A third view, however, sees neither material circumstances nor culture as inexorably determining the strategies or routines of individuals or units, but as providing a set of incentives and a toolkit for deliberation and problem-solving.108 Along these lines, Napoleon Chagnon tells the story of Yanomamo headman who, realizing that his village was facing an adverse shift in the balance of power, decided that he had no choice but to seek an alliance with a nearby village that had been a rival for over two decades. (Even if we accept Patrick Tierney’s claim that Chagnon’s distribution of machetes created the strategic incentives for such alliance adjustments, the story retains its relevance for my present purpose.) Reaching into the toolkit of Yanomamo culture, the headman astutely chose emissaries whose kinship ties to the key members of the rival village permitted them to visit on the pretext of filial piety. The simple act of visiting the rival village without getting ambushed in the jungle required a complex series of culturally encoded signaling leading to a stand-down of weapons readiness. At a long meeting with the leaders of the rival village, the headman and his entourage verbally revised the entire history of their enmity. Earlier times of alliance between the two groups were emphasized, and the breakdown of relations between them was falsely blamed on a troublemaking subgroup that had subsequently split off from one of the villages. Chagnon claims that these were outright lies, but because they were told in the right way, and because there was a mutual strategic benefit to be gained, the alliance worked.109 Although a realist would be happy with the main outlines of Chagnon’s story, Ann Swidler, “Culture in Action: Symbols and Strategies,” American Sociological Review 51 (April 1986); Elizabeth Kier, Imagining War: French and British Military Doctrine between the Wars (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997), 31. 109 Chagnon, Yanomamo, fifth ed., 216-226; Tierney, Darkness in El Dorado, chapters 6 and 7. 108 39 it nonetheless shows how an agent can use his cultural toolkit creatively to accomplish strategic objectives. In short, the practice of war in anarchy is intimately bound up with cultural symbols. This is not surprising, because some of the main tasks of culture -- the strengthening of group solidarity, the marking off of group boundaries, and the motivation of contributions to collective action -- are most urgently needed in time of war. However, the direction of causality running between war and culture is complex, hard to establish, and in many cases appears to be reciprocal. In most circumstances, understanding strategic choices in anarchy requires knowing both the situation that actors face and the cultural equipment with which they devise and discuss responses to the dangers of anarchy. Theoretically integrating material, institutional, and cultural elements Some anthropologists of war take into account the interrelationships among the material-situational, institutional, and cultural causes of armed conflict between groups without attempting to subordinate some kinds of causes rigidly to others. These scholars, whether they are reporting fieldwork or statistical results, proceed inductively, as the evidence seems to require. They may use culture to explain some aspects of the behavior they observe and material circumstances to explain other aspects. However, international relations consumers of this literature, embroiled in our own theoretical debates about anarchy and culture, will insist on a more theory-driven way of integrating these material, institutional, and cultural elements without falling prey to reductionism. Here I will examine two such approaches, one conceived in terms of nested constraints and the other in terms of historically developed systems of action constituted jointly by material, institutional, and cultural factors. Nested constraints 40 Emile Durkheim believed that “social life, in all its aspects and in every period of its history, is made possible only by a vast symbolism.”110 However, he also believed that the form that these symbols take depends in part on aspects of the material setting, reflected in the division of labor in society, and that the “collective consciousness” of a group mirrors its social relationships. Thus, while Durkheim hardly wanted to reduce social symbolism in a crude way to brute material facts, he nonetheless nested the symbolic in the material and institutional in ways that gave causal priority to the latter. Many significant social theorists from Marx to Malinowski to Ernest Gellner have taken this path. Some prominent students of the anthropology of war have likewise chosen to nest material, institutional, and cultural elements in roughly this way. Brian Ferguson, for example, depicts the causes of war as a “nested hierarchy of progressively more limiting constraints.”111 The broadest constraints are set by what he calls infrastructure: i.e., demography, ecology, and technology. To the list of infrastructural characteristics, we might add the constraints that follow from the fact of anarchy. These factors create a set of propensities that may directly affect the likelihood of war and may also indirectly affect the chance of war by shaping constraints at other levels. The next broadest level of constraints for Ferguson is the structural: i.e., the structure of the economy, the pattern of kinship, and political institutions. As before, these factors may load the dice for or against war directly, or they may do so indirectly by affecting what Ferguson calls the superstructure: i.e., psychology and beliefs. In this scheme, the likely configuration at each nested layer is bounded but not determined by influences from the prior one. Ferguson’s decision to start with the material is not arbitrary. It is based on his empirically grounded claims that material constraints have causal priority. He admits that different cultures may respond somewhat differently to similar material challenges, such as contact with militarily and economically superior societies, depending in part on their cultural repertoire of concepts and tactics. Yet these variations may simply reflect rationally defensible differences in preferences over strategy, rather than cultural biases. 110 Emile Durkheim, The Elementary Forms of Religious Life (New York: Free Press, 1965), 264. 41 Even within the same group, Ferguson notes, different leaders may urge different solutions: fight, flight, assimilation, conciliation, or “fundamentalist” revival. Moreover, Ferguson argues, “in all these cases, existing cultural patterns are reshaped and employed practically, and in ways that show substantial cross-cultural uniformity.”112 Thus, while the material does not fully subsume the cultural, according to Ferguson’s view, it is possible to understand the role that culture plays only by taking into account the material parameters that structure the situation to which the culture is responding. In contrast, proponents of cultural theories of warfare, such as Harrison and Ross, attempt to reverse the explanatory nesting, starting with culture and showing how it constitutes patterns of social relations and even material arrangements. In principle, rigorous testing may in a given case be able to establish which nesting sequence fits the evidence best. In fact, many situations manifest reciprocal causality among material conditions, social institutions, and culture. In analyzing Yanomamo warfare, it rarely makes sense to ask whether its intensity and incessant nature is due to the strategic incentives of anarchy or to the waiteri cultural complex of fierceness or to kinship institutions that encourage the fissioning of villages, since these are all co-constituting and mutually reinforcing. In such circumstances, nesting theories must give way to a systems approach. Material-institutional-cultural systems of action In the social construction of reality in anarchy, it is not just the material or the institutional or the cultural setting that confronts the individual and the group as a takenfor-granted inevitability; it is the whole of the multi-faceted anarchical system.113 When acting in or analyzing a system, as Robert Jervis reminds us, it is insufficient to think in terms of linear causality and the independent effects of separate variables, because Ferguson, “A Savage Encounter,” in War in the Tribal Zone, 201. Ferguson, “A Savage Encounter,” in War in the Tribal Zone, 18. See also Ferguson in Martin and Frayer, 336. 113 Berger and Luckman, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Doubleday, 1966); Robert Grafstein, Institutional Realism: Social and Political Constraints on Rational Actors (New Haven: Yale, 1992). 111 112 42 feedback processes often counteract expected linear consequences.114 Because of the complex causal interconnections among their elements, systems have emergent properties that differ from the independent properties of their parts. No single part of a system suffices to define the system and its behavior. Even anarchy itself, though it may load the dice probabilistically toward war, does not predetermine action in the system. Nor does any specific institutional fact or cultural feature determine the system’s behavior independent of the larger context of the system as a whole. For example, witchcraft beliefs may deter aggression in some self-help systems, whereas they may intensify it in others. Likewise, the ecological fact of food scarcity can in itself produce war, trade, or state-building, depending on the other potentialities of the social system and choices that its actors make. The technological fact of the huntergatherer mode of production (or the industrial mode) is in itself consistent with varied outcomes in anarchy. Severe menstrual taboos may sometimes play a central role in the legitimation of a warrior culture; conversely, their absence may reflect the social equality of women who happily accompany their menfolk in homicidal raiding.115 Without knowing how any particular system operates as a whole, changing one variable (if that were possible) might not lead to the expected results: reducing scarcity might simply make the units in a warlike system more capable of sustaining the fight; making units more trusting in a warlike system might get them wiped out. Research on the democratic peace illustrates the emergent properties of an anarchical system. The functioning of the system as a whole cannot simply be reduced to the properties of its separate parts. Before World War I, democracies were rather likely to get into militarized disputes with each other.116 During the 1930s, liberal international organizations did nothing to promote peace. Moreover, economic interdependence per se does little or nothing to reduce the risk of war between states; in some circumstances, such mutual economic vulnerability may increase the chance of war. But put all three of 114 Robert Jervis, System Effects (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997). Robarchek and Robarchek, Waorani, 105. 116 Joanne Gowa, Ballots and Bullets: The Elusive Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), 44-67; Christopher Layne, “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace,” International Security, fall 1994. 115 43 these ingredients together in a system in which these elements predominate, and the democratic peace emerges.117 TYPOLOGIES OF ANARCHICAL SYSTEMS If this perspective is correct, theorizing must proceed by studying systems as wholes. One fruitful step in this direction would be to develop a typology of different kinds of anarchical systems. The most common typologies in the existing literature tend to focus on either the system’s material, institutional, or cultural elements. Based on power distributions, Waltz proposes bipolar and multipolar types; based on ideas, culture, and identity, Wendt proposes Hobbesian, Lockean, and Kantian types; based on political institutions, Russett contends that democratic and authoritarian anarchies behave differently.118 In a nesting approach to integrating material, institutional, and cultural factors, such typologies organized around a supposed taproot factor might be adequate. However, if anarchical systems are jointly constituted by all three of these kinds of elements and not reducible to any one of them, a useful typology cannot be based on a presupposition of linear, nested, causal relations among the elements. One problem with a linear scheme is that the effect of the purported taproot variables might have opposite effects, depending on other attributes of the system. For example, a multipolar polar system is conducive to unconditional, “chaingang” alliances when the prevailing strategic culture is characterized by a military cult of the offensive, as it was in 1914, whereas multipolarity is conducive to “buckpassing” non-alignment when defensive warfare is believed to have an advantage, as in the 1930s.119 In another example, a decline in power relative to a rival state may goad an authoritarian state to preventive war, but a similar decline is more likely to lead a democracy to seek allies or 117 Oneal and Russett, Triangulating Peace. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, ch. 7-8; Wendt, Social Theory, ch. 6; Oneal and Russett, Triangulating Peace. 119 Thomas Christensen and Jack Snyder, “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Mulitpolarity,” International Organization 44:2 (Spring 1990), 137168. 118 44 appease the rival.120 Even the institutional features of democracy may have different foreign policy consequences in different cultural contexts: insofar as the democratic peace rests in part on mutual perceptions of a common basis of legitimacy, neighboring democracies that base citizenship privileges on ethnically exclusionary principles may wind up fighting over the mistreatment of each others’ minorities.121 In some circumstances, these conceptual problems might be handled simply as instances of interaction effects between two variables. In that case, causality could be treated as linear, but conditional. However, it seems likely that many cases will feature not just interactions of variables, but strong systemic feedback processes. Before 1914, for example, Social Darwinism, militarism, offensive military strategies, the rise of nationalism in transitions to partial democracy, and shifts in relative military power were not just interacting variables. These interrelated material, institutional, and cultural features constituted a mutually reinforcing system whose amplifying feedback processes heightened the security dilemma and pulled Europe toward war. An analyst might accept this view, yet argue that a basically linear model captures the essence of the system, because a single taproot is the source of all of the systems’ main properties. In the Primat der Aussenpolitik version, for example, the belated rise of German power and its vulnerability in the heart of Europe drove its militarism, its nationalism, and its offensive strategies.122 Conversely, in the Primat der Innenpolitik version, Germany’s late industrialization perverted its path toward democracy, giving rise to an authoritarian bourgeoisie that played the nationalist card and allied with feudal militarists and encouraged their offensive military strategies.123 Perhaps less plausibly, an Ideenpolitik approach might argue that ideas themselves – nationalism, Social Darwinism, or the cult of the offensive – were the uncaused causes of the entire system of Randall. Schweller, “Domestic Structure and Preventive War,” World Politics (January 1992). 121 Oneal and Russett, Triangulating Peace, discuss whether the recent Kashmir fighting, which has something of this character, should count as a war between democracies. Numerous pairs of transitional states, such as Armenian and Azerbaijan or Serbia and Croatia, illustrate this possibility. Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: Norton, 2000), 352-53. 122 Mearsheimer, Great Power Politics. 120 45 action. Whether or not such taproot arguments are persuasive is an empirical question that scholars debate constantly. In light of this, how might typologies of material-institutional-cultural anarchical systems be constructed? For taproot and linear nesting theories, the typology should of course be based on the taproots of the different systems: “democratic anarchies,” “authoritarian anarchies,” or “democratic-transition anarchies”. For systems shaped by the interaction effects of two crucial variables, labels need both a noun and an adjective: “multipolar cult-of-the-offensive anarchies,” or “authoritarian power-transition systems.” However, for systems that cannot be convincingly reduced to a small number of standard elements, characterizing the system will probably require a partly ideographic, partly nomothetic reconstruction. Such a reconstruction of the system’s dynamics may draw on a general knowledge of feedback effects in anarchic systems; on partial theories of the workings of military, political, or cultural subsystems; and on detailed analysis of the historically distinctive origins and interactions of these elements. Labeling the system may require some combination of general concepts and historically specific designations, such as “The Westphalian balance of power system” or “the Concert of Europe system.” ACTING TO EFFECT CHANGE IN A SYSTEM An anthropological anecdotes illustrate the role that new ideas may play in transforming an anarchical system. A pair of Amazonian tribeswomen returned to their murderous Waorani tribe in 1956 after a long sojourn among the Waorani’s foes, bearing the news that these neighbors were not, as had been believed, a pack of untrustworthy cannibals. These women’s information and interpretations triggered a reassessment of the Hobbesian assumptions underpinning the Waorani worldview. As a result, the Waorani started behaving more peacefully not only towards the outsiders, but also within the anarchical Waorani society itself.124 123 Hans-Ulrich Wehler, The German Empire, 1871-1918 (Leamington Spa: Berg, 1985). Robarchek and Robarchek, Waorani, 156. Some scholars who are knowledgeable about the Amazon suspect that this account exaggerates the impact on Waorani warmaking of the returning tribeswomen. 124 46 Thus, despite the nightmarish weight of history pressing upon a Hobbesian culture, a creative and resolute vanguard may be able to use information and ideas to exploit openings for the possibility of change. Even so, the vanguard do not make history as they please. They make the history that is enabled by historical possibilities. Among the Waorani, the window for change was opened by missionaries that accompanied the returning tribeswomen and by the availability of trade goods that made a change in behavior seem materially attractive. In short, cultural entrepreneurs of political ideas need to understand the material and institutional potentials of the system they are trying to change. In dynamically stable systems, negative feedback processes work to eliminate perturbations and reestablish the system’s equilibrium. For example, if one unit becomes too strong, other units gang up against it and reestablish a balance of power, as in the historical European balance of power system. In dynamically unstable systems, positive feedback processes work to overturn the equilibrium and transform the system into a new configuration. For example, small advantages may lead to the disproportionate growth of a unit of the system, making cumulative disproportionate growth of that unit unstoppable until it dominates the entire system and turns the anarchy into a hierarchy, as in the ancient Chinese Warring States system.125 Sometimes systems experience positive feedback in one part of the system, leading to uneven development that disrupts the overall equilibrium of the system. What Marxists call contradictions in a system might be thought of as developmental trajectories that produce positive feedbacks disrupting the previous equilibrium among the system’s elements. Viewed from this perspective, the economic successes of the late feudal system touched off a set of interrelated economic and social feedback processes that gave rise to powerful actors with an incentive to effect change in the system’s institutional and normative structures. 125 Victoria Hui, Rethinking War, State Formation, and System Formation: A Historical Comparison of Ancient China (659-221 BC) and Early Modern Europe (1495-1815 AD), Columbia University dissertation in political science, 2000, points to advantages in the state of Qin’s administrative system that created the potential for cumulative victories. 47 From the standpoint of systems dynamics, actors seeking to change the equilibrium of the system need to identify contradictions in the system and opportunities to promote positive feedback processes to heighten those contradictions. As we have seen, one type of contradiction stems from uneven, self-amplifying growth of a unit that allows it to achieve hegemony and turn the anarchy into hierarchy by coercion or inducement. In the current unipolar moment, this appeals to some people as a feasible option for promoting systemic change, at least as an element in a broader strategy. Thomas Risse and Kathryn Sikkink, for example, are frank in acknowledging that coercion and inducement may play a role in their discursive strategy for promoting normative change on human rights issues in authoritarian regimes.126 Some exploitable contradictions may be built into the system from the start. For example, realists might argue that the medieval political order of multiple, overlapping obligations, called heteronomy by John Ruggie, had built-in contradictions in a self-help anarchical system. If so, it was in the long run bound to shake down into a system of more compact, functionally similar, fighting units such as sovereign states.127 Other contradictions may develop over time due to uneven growth or changes within the material, institutional, or cultural aspects of the system. For example, Durkheim argued that increases in the density of social interactions and the resulting intensification of the division of labor in modern society eventually created a mismatch between social facts and cultural norms. Today some argue analogously, though less persuasively, that the increasing density of global economic and social interaction is making the norm of sovereignty obsolete.128 In such situations, culture may play a key role in resolving a contradiction that is presented by the material or social circumstances. Thus, Durkheim interpreted the development of the norm of individualism in modern culture as resolving the Risse and Sikkink, “The Socialization of International Human Rights Norms into Domestic Practice,” in Risse, Ropp, and Sikkink, The Power of Human Rights, 9-10. 127 John Ruggie, “Continuity and Transformation in the World Polity,” World Politics 35:2 (January 1983), 261-285. 128 On dynamic density, see Durkheim, Division of Labor, and Ruggie, “Transformation;” on the purported obsolescence of the state, see Jessica Mathews, “Power Shift,” Foreign Affairs (Jan./Feb. 1997), 50-66. 126 48 contradiction between the increasing division of labor in society and the concomitant destruction of the traditional normative bases of social solidarity. In another example, Karl Polanyi (and later John Ruggie) saw the rise of imperialist nationalism and Keynesianism as alternative ideational responses to the political contradiction between draconian gold-standard adjustment strategies and the increased role of the popular classes in modern democratic politics.129 Although material and institutional facts may structure the problem that ideas and culture must confront, these parameters may not dictate a single solution. Which solution is sought may depend on ideas and culture. If Polanyi and Ruggie are right, this cultural effect may be much more than “fine-tuning.” It may have made the difference between the two World Wars and the long post-1945 peace among the great powers. In short, culturally creative activists and thinkers may play an important role in changing behavior in anarchical systems, but they must do so within a context that is structured by the system’s feedback pattern, contradictions, and material and institutional possibilities. Conclusion: The Potential for Transforming Contemporary Anarchy through Culture Anthropological research on culture and war casts doubt on one-dimensional conceptions of behavior in anarchy. The radical constructivist notion that anarchy is nothing more than ideas, culture, and identity “almost all the way down” is no less misleading than the hyper-realist notion that the unchangeable situation of anarchy will always make life nasty, brutish, and short, regardless of anarchy’s institutional and cultural content. Those who seek to transform the culture of contemporary anarchy need to work within an existing material and institutional setting that may enable, derail, or pervert efforts to promote change. Salient features of contemporary international anarchy place sharp limits on the speed and scope of such a transformation. Efforts to force the 129 Emile Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1984); Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation (Boston: Beacon, 1944); John Ruggie, “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order,” International Organization 36 (Spring 1982), 379-415. 49 pace risk unintended consequences that could wind up hindering change and increasing its costs. If world politics is made up of nothing but ideas and culture, and if culture is malleable and socially constructed, then the barriers to realizing our ideals may seem insubstantial. Inspired by that heady notion, leading figures in many of the major, respected, responsible institutions of our society sometimes talk as if international politics in the post-Cold-War era were simply a matter of demanding compliance with universalist norms. The editorial page of the New York Times regularly insists that some country that is devoid of the material and institutional preconditions of democracy, such as Congo, must nonetheless hold immediate elections. Similarly, increasingly prominent non-governmental organizations like Human Rights Watch insist that human rights abusers be indicted, not bargained with. And yet when these recommendations are implemented in the real world, it sometimes comes at a high cost. For example, inopportune voting demanded by the international community in such places as Burundi in 1993 and East Timor in 1999 has led directly to hundred of thousands of deaths and refugees.130 In part, this is because the contemporary system of action in anarchy is not malleable ideas and culture “all the way down.” Today’s historically constituted anarchical system, including the characteristics of its units, is maintained not just by culture, but also by its material and institutional circumstances. Even those characteristics that do reflect ideas and culture may not be particularly malleable, and they often do not reflect the culture the activists want. The democratic peace--with its mutually reinforcing feedbacks among consolidated democracy, economic interdependence, and multilateral institutions— constitutes an influential subsystem within the global anarchy. However, the prospect of extending the democratic peace and its human rights corollaries to global reach faces severe material, institutional, and cultural limitations: The “third wave” of democratization, already eroding in some places, consolidated democratic regimes mainly in the richer countries of Eastern 130 Snyder, From Voting to Violence, 296-306. 50 Europe, Latin America, and East Asia.131 A fourth wave would have to take on harder cases: countries that are poorer, more ethnically divided, and starting from a weaker base of governmental institutions and citizen skills. The spread of international human rights norms faces a similar problem: many of the worst abuses take place in countries that completely lack serious legal institutions or the personnel to create them. Two of the great powers in the international system, Russia and China, are not integrated into the democratic peace. Their stance toward the projects of the advanced democracies is opportunistic and guided by a Realpolitik sensibility. Arguably, pushing either of them to adopt pristine standards of democracy and human rights might only increase the likelihood of authoritarian crackdowns, backlashes, and nationalistic self-righteousness. Non-governmental organizations’ principled efforts to transform grassroots culture in areas such as female circumcision in Africa and women’s rights in Islamic societies have few successes to report.132 If it is true that patriarchal cultural practices prop up the institutional structure of the traditional order, then the changes in culture and identity that need to underpin the global extension of the democratic peace seem far off. Globalization of the economy and social relations has at best an ambivalent significance for the globalization of the democratic peace. No one has yet devised satisfactory institutions of democratic accountability for any unit larger than the state. In the unlikely event that the most optimistic prophets of globalization are correct, the predicted loss of control over political and economic outcomes by democratic states would be unsettling news. It is unclear whether an increasingly transnational 131 Larry Diamond, “Is the Third Wave Over?” Journal of Democracy 7:3 (July 1966), 20- 37. 132 On indigenous resistance to adopting new human rights norms, see Richard Shweder, “What about ‘Female Genital Mutilation’? And Why Understanding Culture Matters in the First Place,” Daedalus 129:4 (Fall 2000), 209-232. 51 civil society would be “democratic” without an effective democratic institutional framework to channel its activities.133 In short, strategies for the transformation of international anarchy, especially the global extension of the democratic peace, need to be assessed in terms of the interplay among diverse material, institutional, and cultural elements, not “ideas almost all the way down.” Sophisticated international relations scholars like Alexander Wendt deny that they are pure voluntarists or subjectivists who think that ideas can transform the world by a wave from the magic idea-wand.134 Nonetheless, Wendt goes quite far in that direction. He asserts that “anarchy as such is an empty vessel and has no intrinsic logic; anarchies only acquire logics as a function of the structure of what we put inside them.”135 The very notion of self-interest, says Wendt, is part of the cultural assumptions, sustained by realist theory, that make behavior in anarchy what it has been. “If self-interest is not sustained by practice,” says Wendt, “it will die out. The possibility of structural change is born out of that fact.”136 The knowledge produced by realism unnecessarily sustains that structure, he concludes, whereas “the knowledge produced by reflexive or critical theory is generally more useful for changing the world than working within it.”137 “Although there is no 1:1 correspondence between positions in the idealism-materialism debate and beliefs about the ease of social change,” he says, “showing that seemingly material conditions are actually a function of how actors think about them opens up possibilities for intervention that would otherwise be obscured.”138 Sheri Berman, “Civil Society and the Collapse of the Weimar Republic,” World Politics 49:3 (April 1997), 401-429; Fiona Adamson’s forthcoming dissertation uses Kurdish and Algerian case studies to explore the security consequences of changing patterns of international labor mobility. 134 Wendt, Social Theory, 137. Wendt further qualifies his views in “On the Via Media: A Response to the Critics,” Review of International Studies, 26:1 (January 2000), 123180. 135 Wendt, Social Theory, 249. See the compelling critique of this view by Dale Copeland, “The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism: A Review Essay,” International Security 25:2 (Fall 2000), 187-212. 136 Wendt, Social Theory, 369 137 Wendt, Social Theory, 378 138 Wendt, Social Theory, 371 133 52 Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink state the transformative moral goal of theory even more directly: “For decades now IR research has been divorced from political theory on the grounds (implicitly, if not explicitly, articulated) that what ‘is’ in the world and what ‘ought to be’ are very different and must be kept separate, both intellectually and in policy. However, contemporary empirical research on norms is aimed precisely at showing how the ‘ought’ becomes the ‘is.’”139 Understanding the relationship between “is” and “ought” should indeed be a central task of contemporary international relations scholarship. While undertaking that task, however, it is important to avoid taking a one-dimensional, voluntarist view of behavior in anarchy that could make more likely the kinds of outcomes that principled scholars and serious-minded practitioners want to avoid. Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink, “International Norm Dynamics and Political Change,” 916. 139