2-1
Chapter 2-Risk/Vulnerability
CHAPTER
2:
RISK
ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
AND
TABLE OF CONTENT
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Introduction
Scope of the Study
Methodology
Executive Summary of Conclusions
Risk Analysis for the Waterberg District Municipality Area
Vulnerability Analysis for the Waterberg District Municipality Area
Disaster Assurance
Developmental Policies
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: RISK ANALYSIS FOR WATERBERG
DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY
1.
Introduction
In South Africa the loss of lives due to natural disasters like floods in the Limpopo Province
and Mozambique as well as the fires in the Western Cape, highlighted the need for a more
integrated approach towards disaster management and development.
The focus in this study is on disasters that has a serious disruption of the functioning of
society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses, which exceed the
ability of affected society to copy using only its own resources.
The purpose of preparing this plan is:




To understand the vulnerability of the various wards to disasters.
To ascertain the status of existing resources and facilities available with the various
agencies involved in disaster management in the district
To assess their adequacies in dealing with a disaster; and
To identify the requirements of institutional strengthening and capacity building
In the IDP, the following disasters have been identified as the most probable hazards to
manifest in the Waterberg District Municipality. They can de categorized as follows:

Sudden onset hazards: Veldt Fires, Floods, Strong Winds and Thunder Storms.

Slow onset hazards: Drought, Crime

Industrial/technological: Structural Fires and Hazardous spillages

Wars and civil strive: Refugees, Undocumented persons, Terrorism, Sabotage;

Epidemics: Water and/or food borne diseases, person-to-person diseases
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2.
Scope of the Study
The purpose of this chapter in the study is to conduct an exercise whereby we provide the
Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Analysis as basis to develop a Disaster Management
Plan for the Waterberg District Municipality.
3.
Methodology
The methodology that is used is based on the potential loss mapping. It presents risk as the
levels of losses that would occur if a certain level of hazard were to occur at all the locations
simultaneously.
Fig 2.1: Potential Loss Mapping
Map 1
Hazard
Map 2
Elements at Risk
Map 3
Vulnerability
Map 4
Risk
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4.
Executive Summary of Conclusion
4.1
A well-organized and capable disaster management structure, consisting of
permanently appointed functionaries must be designed and established in the WDM.
These structures must be in line with the new Disaster Management Act. It is
important that at district level a functionary is appointed that can oversee this
specific function the person will also take the responsibility for the Disaster
Management Centre at the district level.
4.2
The WDM must adopt a pro-active approach towards Disaster Management.
4.3
A well-organized, trained and equipped volunteer force must be established and used
as a force multiplier in order to address the staff shortages in the areas of Crime
Prevention/Law Enforcement, Fire fighting, EMS, Disaster Management, Search and
Rescue, Security etc.
4.4
The vulnerability and risk assessment has indicated that the transportation of
hazardous materials is the biggest daily risk in the WDM and that the Hazchem
response capability is very inadequate concerning skilled human resources, the
availability and positioning of equipment and the response time over long distances.
This situation must be addressed and rectified immediately to avoid the loss of live
and property. It is recommended that a task team be appointed consisting of
Hazchem and transport expertise to assess the current situation and to make
recommendations on training, equipment on whether a vehicle or vehicles are needed
and where they should be stationed.
4.5
Fire fighting is the competency of the District Municipality and Hazchem should
reside under fire fighting. Therefore, the option that the district budget for the
function but enter into a agreement with the local municipalities to execute the
function for the district if and when required, should be investigated.
4.6
Strategies must be designed and commissioned to gain control over the
transportation of hazardous materials.
4.7
Structures responsible for the control of undocumented persons must be
strengthened.
4.8
Veldt fires are rated as the number one risk in the WDM. The assessment indicates
that many veldt fires occur on farms that belong to owners that live outside the
WDM who in turn neglect to take the necessary precaution to avoid veldt fires. The
WDM must institute bylaws that compel the owners to act responsible.
4.9
Organized agriculture plays an important role in the WDM concerning the protection
of the rural communities against various hazardous. It seems that they have little to
no support from local government. WDM must implement a strategy and play a
more active role in supporting and strengthening the other major stakeholders in the
area.
4.10
The pollution and flood control mechanism of the Crocodile River must urgently be
addressed on Provincial and National levels.
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4.11
The establishment of Disaster Management Centers at all levels within the WDM in
accordance with the new Disaster Management Act must be addressed as a matter of
urgency and include all stakeholders in the WDM.
4.12
The design and establishment of a centralized reporting and dispatching facility must
be regarded as a high priority for the WDM.
4.13
A system of Early Warning must be designed and implemented to warn the
community of a pending disaster such as nighttime flooding, strong winds and veldt
fires.
4.14
Contingency plans must be rehearsed regularly to test skills and equipment for day,
night and adverse conditions.
4.15
A Mobile Communication/Co-ordination Centre must be established for better
forward management at any major emergency or disaster.
4.16
Standardization of equipment in WDM needs to be addressed.
4.17
The establishment of a rural fire fighting structure must be urgently addressed by the
WDM.
4.18
Emergency communication infrastructure must be implemented for the reporting of
crime and other emergencies especially in area where Telkom networks are
vulnerable and cellular services do not exists.
4.19
Short-term solutions must be designed and implemented to create a water
distribution network for the supply of drinking water to communities and livestock.
4.20
The sinkhole situation at Schilpadsnest near Thabazimbi must be addressed in
conjunction with all stakeholders involved in order to protect the lives of the
community.
4.21
A trauma counseling and debriefing facility must be established to address the needs
of the community with special reference to child abuse, rape and family violence and
emergency workers. This must be done with the help of NGO’s and community
structures.
4.22
Disaster Management functionaries should educate and sensitize other line function
departments within the WDM concerning the casual factors of disasters e.g. poverty,
population growth, rapid urbanization and environmental degradation. Line function
departments must be encouraged to incorporate the factors into their daily planning.
4.23
The following disease outbreak control mechanisms should be re-evaluated by
WDM staff:
4.23.1 Outbreak Response Teams.
4.23.2 Outbreak Response Management.
4.23.3 Mop-up guidelines.
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5.
Risk Analysis for the Waterberg District Municipality Area
5.1
First, let us review the definition of the key terms. Risk is the expected lives lost,
persons injured, property damaged, and economic activity disrupted due to a
particular level of loss. Risk management determines the scale of the estimated
losses, which can be, anticipated in particular areas during a specified time period.
The process of risk management has two parts:
 Risk assessment (estimation of the magnitude of the particular risk), and
 Risk evaluation (how important is the risk and what do we need to do about it)
5.2
Acceptable levels of risk. Risks are associated with benefits. People living in the
flood plains accept the risk due to the benefits arrived from the richness of the soil.
Assessing risk and vulnerability. This needs to be quantified, if only in a crude and
approximate way, in terms of the degree of risk faced, the size of the event that is
likely, and the consequences of an event if it occurs.
5.3
Fig 2.2: Loss Parameters for Risk Analysis
Losses
Consequences
Measures
Tangible
Intangible
Death
Number of people
Loss of economic Social
and
active individuals
psychological effects
on
remaining
community
Injuries
Number and injury Medical treatment Social
and
severity
needs,
temporary psychological pain
loss of economic and recovery
activity
by
productive
individuals
Physical damage
Inventory
of Replacement
and Cultural losses
damaged elements, repair cost
by number and
damage level
Emergency
Volume
of Mobilization costs, Stress and overwork
operations
manpower,
man- investment
in in relief participants
days
employed, preparedness
equipment
and capability
resources expended
for relief
Disruption
to Number of working Value
of
lost Opportunities,
economy
days lost, volume of production
competitiveness,
production lost
reputation
Social disruption
Number of displaced Temporary housing Psychological,
persons, homeless
relief,
economic Social
contacts,
production
cohesion,
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Chapter 2-Risk/Vulnerability
Environmental
Impact
Scale and severity
community morale
Clean up cost, repair Consequences
of
cost
poorer environment,
health risks, risk of
future disaster
5.4
How is risk determined? There is three essential components in the determination of
risk, each of which should be separately quantified:
 The hazard occurrence probability: the likelihood of experiencing any natural or
technological hazard at a location or in a region
 The elements at risk: identifying and making an inventory of people or buildings
or other elements which would be affected by the hazard if it occurred, and
where required, estimating their economical value
 The vulnerability of the elements at risk: how damaged the buildings or injured
the people or other elements would be if they experienced some level of hazard.
5.5
In the developing countries where two third of the world’s population live, suffer the
most due to consequences of natural disasters. In the light of this, it naturally
becomes important to examine the connection between disasters and development, as
also the link between poverty and disasters, in order to develop appropriate
rehabilitation and mitigation strategies on the one hand and refinement of
development strategies on the other.
5.6
The Waterberg District Municipality covers an area of approximately 4 951 882ha.
The municipal area consists mainly of commercial farms, game farming, etc. and
only approximately 0, 43% of the total area is for settlement purposes (i.e. towns and
villages). The population is estimated to be 625 518 (IDP 2002).
5.6.1 Floods
1
2
3
4
Casual phenomena

Naturally occurring flash and river flooding from
intense rainfall associated with seasonal weather
patterns
 Human manipulation of watersheds, drainage basins
and floodplains
General characteristics  Flash floods – Accelerated runoff and dam failure
 River floods – Slow buildup, usually seasonal in
river systems.
Predictability
Flood forecasting depend on seasonal patterns, capacity
of drainage basin, flood plain mapping. Warning
possible well in advance for seasonal floods, but only
minutes before in case of storm surge.
Factors contributing to  Location of settlements on floodplains
vulnerability
 Lack of awareness of flooding hazard
 Reduction of absorptive capacity of land (erosion,
concrete)
 Non-resistant buildings and foundations
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

5.
Typical adverse effects
6.
Possible risk reduction
measures
Specific preparedness
measures
7
8
Typical post disaster
needs
9.
Impact
tools
assessment
High risk infrastructural elements
Unprotected food stocks and standing crops,
livestock
 Physical damage- Structures damaged by washing
away, collapsing, impact of floating debris
 Casualties and public health- Deaths from drowning
but few serious injuries. Possible outbreak of
malaria, diarrhea and viral infections
 Water supplies-Contamination of wells and
groundwater possible. Clean water may be
unavailable
 Crops and food supplies-Harvest and food stock
may be lost to inundation. Animals, farm tools and
seeds might be lost. Flood plain mapping. Land use
control.
Flood control measures (dams, channels, erosion
control)
 Flood detection and warning systems
 Community participation and education
 Development of master plan for floodplain
management
 Search and rescue
 Medical assistance
 Disaster assessment
 Short term food and water supplies
 Water purification
 Epidemiological surveillance
 Temporary shelter
 Damage surveys forms
 Aerial surveys
5.6.2 Epidemics
1
Casual phenomena
2
General characteristics
3
Predictability
WDM: Disaster Management Plan - Ref: Ch 2 hh



Unsanitary conditions, crowding, poverty
Ecological changes that favor breeding of vector
Non-immune persons migrate to endemic disease
area
 Decline in nutritional status
 Contamination of water or food
 Risk of introduction or spread of the disease
 Possible large number of cases
 Severe disease leading to disability or death
 Risk of social or economic disruption
 Lack of adequate professional personnel, needed
supplies
 Danger of international transmission
Epidemics may increase due to rise in travel or
migration and long term dormant symptoms of sexually
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4
Factors contributing to
vulnerability
5.
Typical adverse effects
6.
Possible risk reduction
measures
7
Specific preparedness
measures
8
Typical post disaster
needs
9.
Impact
tools
transmitted diseases. Reports of epidemics may increase
due to better medical coverage. Prediction is assisted by
epidemiological studies but may be constrained in
newly formed settlements or emergency camps.
 Poverty
 Lack of immunity (or vaccination) to diseases
 Poor nutrition, poor sanitation, poor water quality,
crowding
 Poorly organized health care delivery
 Drug resistant diseases
 Illness and death
 Social and political disruption, economic loss
 Increased trauma in emergency settlements
 Structuring an emergency health service
 Preparing a contingency plan with inventory of
required resources
 Establishing an early warning system through
routine surveillance
 Training of national staff in emergency operations
 Intervention
measures-Verify
and
confirm
diagnosis; identify cases; find sources of epidemic;
treat cases and control spread; write report.
 Community health education
 Emergency medical assistance
 International aid, if outbreak uncontained
assessment 
Epidemiological surveys; evaluation of health care
systems and emergency response
5.6.3 Chemical and industrial accidents
1
Casual phenomena



2
3
4
Disaster explosion in a plant or storage facilities
handling toxic substances
Accidents during the transportation of chemicals
Contamination of food or the environment by
misuse of chemicals
Improper waste management of toxic chemicals
Technological system failures
Failures of plant safety design or components
Natural hazards such as fire
Arson or sabotage





General characteristics 
Predictability
Incidents of chemical and industrial accidents are
expected to increase as industrialization increases in
developing countries
Factors contributing to  Those persons, structures, livestock, crops, and
vulnerability
environment closet to the scene of an accident are
most vulnerable, however, large scale releases or
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5.
Typical adverse effects
6.
Possible risk reduction
measures
7
Specific preparedness
measures
8
Typical post disaster
needs
9.
Impact
tools
assessment
airborne pollutants may spread for hundreds of
kilometers
 Lack of safety features or lack of evacuation plan.
 Unawareness by vulnerable persons of the potential
danger
 Physical damage-Damage or destruction may occur
to structures and infrastructure. Transportation
accidents damage vehicles and other objects on
impact. Industrial fires may reach high temperatures
and effect large areas.
 Casualties-Many people may be killed or injured
and require medical treatment
 Environmental-Contamination of air, water supply,
land, and animal life may occur. Areas may become
uninhabitable for humans and animals. Ecological
systems may be disrupted even on a global response
Development of a plan, such as the APELL (Awareness
and Preparedness for Emergencies at the Local Level)
process, to assist decision makers and technical
personnel
to
improve community awareness
installations and aid them in preparing disaster response
plan.
 Hazard mapping
 Hazardous materials identification
 Inspection of chemical plants and storage facilities
 Monitoring toxic waste disposal procedures
 Improve fire fighting capacity
 Monitoring pollution levels
 Prepare and practice evacuation plans
 Test warning sirens
 Evacuation from area
 Search and rescue
 Alternative sources of water
 Cleanup
 Monitor environmental effects
 APELL process forms for emergency response plan
evaluation
 CHEMTREC (Chemical Transportation Emergency
Centre) information systems.
5.6.4 Refugees
1
2
Casual phenomena
General characteristics
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





War and civil strive often result in displaced people
Competition for scarce resources
Religious or ethnic intolerance
Ideological differences
Increased social violence
High jacking
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3
4
 Civil unrest
 Terrorism
 Conflict with conventional arms
Predictability
Reports of civil strive and an increase in social violence
and ideological differences in a specific area must be an
early warning that people will be replaced
Factors contributing to  Lack of information about war and civil strive
vulnerability
 Assembly of displaced people at allocation that has
no access to basic services
 Dense population
 Use of unsafe building material


5.
Typical adverse effects
6.

Possible risk reduction 
measures

7
8
9.
Specific preparedness 
measures
Typical post disaster 
needs




Impact
assessment 
tools


Public health-Breakdown in sanitary conditions.
Environmental-Deforestation, the use of trees to
build shelter
Socio economic-Increase in crime in the area
The establishment of a camp for refugees
The intervention on a national level to prevent the
relocation of refugees
Contingency plan for the accommodation of
refugees
Medical assistance
Relief assistance for establishing of a camp
Transportation
Provide food, water and shelter
Relocation of victims
Individual surveys
Aerial surveillance
Organized patrols
5.6.5 Drought
1
Casual phenomena
2
General characteristics
3
Predictability
WDM: Disaster Management Plan - Ref: Ch 2 hh


Immediate cause-Rainfall deficit
Possible underlying causes-El Nino; human induced
changes in ground surface and soil; increase of
atmospheric carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases
 The reduction of water or moisture availability is
temporary and significant in relation to the norm
 Meteorological drought is the reduction in rainfall
and hydrological drought is the reduction in water
resources
 Agricultural drought is the impact of drought on
human activity influenced by various factors: the
presence of irrigation systems, moisture retention
capacity of the soil, the timing of the rainfall
Periods of unusual dryness are normal in all weather
systems. Rainfall and hydrology data must be carefully
analyzed with the influencing factors in predicting
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drought, however, advance warning is usually possible
Factors contributing to  Location in an arid area where dry conditions are
vulnerability
increased by drought
 Farming on marginal lands, subsistence farming
 Lack of agricultural inputs to improve yields
 Lack of seed reserves
 Areas dependant on other whether systems for water
resources
 Areas of low soil moisture retention
 Lack of recognition and allocation of resources to
drought hazards.
Typical adverse effects  Reduced income for the farmers
 Reduction of spending from agricultural sector
 Increase in price of staple foods
 Increased inflation rates
 Deterioration of nutritional status
 Famine
 Illness
 Death
 Reduction of drinking water sources
 Migration
 Breakup of communities
 Loss of livestock
Possible risk reduction  Drought and famine early warning systems
measures
Specific preparedness  Development of inter institutional response plan
measures
Typical post disaster  Measures to maintain food security: price
needs
stabilization, food subsidies, employment creation
programmes,
general
food
distribution,
supplementary feeding programs, special programs
for livestock and pastoralist, complementary water
and health programs, rehabilitation
Impact
assessment  Nutritional surveys, socioeconomic surveys,
tools
monitoring of rainfall and hydrological data,
satellite imagery
4
5.
6.
7
8
9.
6.
6.1
Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Assessment for the Waterberg
District Municipality Area
Vulnerability Analysis. Vulnerability is the propensity of things to be damaged by a
hazard. People’s lives are at risk directly from the destructive effects of the hazard.
Their income and livelihood are at risk because of the destruction of the buildings,
crops, livestock or equipment that these depend on. Each type of hazard puts a
somewhat different set of elements at risk. Most disaster mitigation work is focused
on reducing vulnerability, and in order to act to reduce vulnerability, development
planner’s need an understanding of which elements are most at risk from the
principal hazards, which have been identified.
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6.2
Vulnerability Assessment is the process of estimating the vulnerability to potential
disaster hazards of specified elements at risk. For general socio economic purposes,
it involves consideration of all significant elements in society, including physical,
social and economic considerations, and the extent to which essential services will
be able to continue functioning.
6.3
The root causes of vulnerability to disasters in developing countries are poverty
and inequitable development. Rapid population growth, urban or mass migration,
inequitable patterns of land ownership, lack of education, and subsistence agriculture
on marginal lands leads to vulnerable conditions such as unsafe siting of buildings
and settlements, unsafe homes, deforestation, malnutrition, unemployment, and
illiteracy.
6.4
It is the interface between these vulnerable conditions and natural hazards such as a
tropical storm, drought, and heavy rains that result in a disaster or protracted
emergency.
6.5
Vulnerability may also be a result of factors easily solved by specific risk reduction
measures. These factors include inappropriate building codes and materials, and a
lack of public awareness. However many of these measures depend on the extent of
a society’s development. For example, it is unrealistic to expect building standards to
be enforced where governments do not have the staff and resources to carry out
inspections. Likewise, public awareness depends, to some extent, on the
community’s educational level and the availability of communication facilities,
which are frequently deficient in developing countries.
6.6
Vulnerability and risk assessment is the link between development project
implementation and disaster mitigation
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6.7
The aim of the Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Analysis is to form the foundation
of the Disaster Management Plan for the Waterberg District Municipality. During
this study all (6) six local municipalities in the Waterberg District Municipality were
visited in order to consult with all the major stakeholders and other interested parties
to collect all the relevant information pertaining to the risks and hazards in their local
municipalities area of jurisdiction. The process of consultation continued through a
series of meetings involving various role players such as disaster management
functionaries, heads of departments responsible for disaster management, SAPS,
SANDF, Mining, Home Affairs, farmers (agricultural union), ward councilors,
community members, provincial government (office of the premier), health and
welfare functionaries, emergency services and public safety staff, correctional
services and disaster management volunteers. A vital area of concern is the
appointment of disaster management functionaries. To date only Mookgopong had
appointed a disaster management functionary. All the other local municipalities have
senior managers also responsible for disaster management. In most cases these senior
managers are heads of departments how understand the importance of disaster
management but at the present moment lack the capacity.
6.8
During this stage of the study the specific hazards of each area was determined ,
classified as low risk (LR), medium risk(MR), high risk (HR) and arrange according
priority from high to low.
7.
BELA-BELA
7.1
The geographical size of Bela-Bela forms 9, 45 % of the Waterberg District
Municipal area and has an estimated population of 59 138 people. This population represents
36 901 urban and 22 237 rural people with 13 595 households and a average of 4,35 people
per household. This area has a unemployment rate of 20,96 % with 5 779 households
earning less then R 1000 per month (poverty line) and 815 households that has no income.
56, 84 % of the population is between the ages of 15 to 65. Bela-Bela is the fifth largest
municipality in the Waterberg District Municipality.
7.2
Risk profile in terms of priority according to severity.
Serial Hazards
No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Low
Risk
(LR)
Fires
1.1 Veldt
1.2 Informal Settlements
Floods
2.1 Flash Floods
2.2 Dam/River Floods
Hazardous Chemicals ( Hazchem)
Epidemics
Draughts
Strong Winds
Crime/Lawlessness
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Medium
Risk
(MR)
High
Risk
(HR)


Priority
1
4





3
2
5
6
7
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8.
9.
10
11.
12.

Undocumented Persons
Accidents
9.1 Road
9.2 Rail
9.3 Air
9.4 Mines
Industrial Action
Sinkholes
Terror/Sabotage




9
8
10
12
11
7.3 Veldt Fires are the biggest hazard in the area. The coverage is a combination of grass
and bush. The most fire occurs in the area north and North West of Bela-Bela. The
area south and southeast of Bela- Bela consists mainly of commercial farming and
veldt fires are less prevalent due to better control over the land by farmers. These are
the areas alongside the N1 and the R101. When fires do occur it influences the traffic
on these roads. It occurs mainly during the months of May to October. The volunteer
fire fighting corps is not up to standard and should be addressed urgently. Veldt fires
pose a big threat to the agricultural sector in terms of the loss of crops and livestock.
The tourism industry in the area is also negatively affected due to the loss of livestock
within the hunting industry resulting in the loss of foreign income to the area. It also
poses a threat to the informal settlements of Bela-Bela situated to the north east of the
town.
7.4 Floods There are four (4) areas in and around Bela-Bela that are affected by floods.
Firstly is the northern part of the town where the Platriver flows in the direction of
Bela –Bela. This river receives its water from the mountainous area of Elandsfontein.
Five dams in the area of which two belong to the municipality and mainly used for
drinking water. Three privately owned dams; the Bisschoff, Roodepoort and Platriver
dam. Flooding from the Roodepoort dam will threaten the Aventura resort. Warmbad
High School, Gina Park, Railway lines and the newly established waterfront
development. Buyskop/Klein Kariba/Bospoort will affect Bela-Bela town ship, the
railway line, the complete industrial area and low-lying areas north and southwest of
the town
Secondly is the area known as the Springbokvlate. This area is extremely flat and
consists mainly of commercial farmers. The area is largely covered in gumbo soil
or black turf. This ground formation type holds the water for long periods causing
large stagnant areas of water. Damage will be caused to the road and rail network
to Marble Hall.
Thirdly is the area of Rust de Winter. This area is very flat and is the catchment
area of the Elands River and flows in the direction south to north. The Rust de
Winter dam is a very large dam in the area and is the main artery of irrigation to
the commercial farmers in the area. Commercial farming is the main activity the in
the area. Flooding will cause serious damages to the commercial farming
community concerning livestock and crops as well as the neighboring areas of
Mpumalanga.
Fourthly is the area of Roodeplaat/Pienaarsrivier. This area to the south of BelaBela receives its water from the Roodeplaat dam. The river flows from south to
north and turns to the west. The area into the floodplain is flat. Flooding of this
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area will cause serious disruption of the road and rail network to Polokwane and
Zimbabwe. Flooding will restrict the movement and activities of the commercial
farming community
7.5 Hazardous Chemicals The area of Bela-Bela is a transit area for the movement of
hazardous chemicals by road and by rail directions north to south and south to north
through the area. Road transport is via the N1, the R101, and the main rail network to
the northern parts of the province and Zimbabwe. The volumes and frequency of the
traffic is very high therefore is the risk considered as very high. Authorities in the area
have some control over the movement when they are informed of large shipments. The
have no control over smaller shipments which is aggravated by the higher frequency of
movement on the R101 of vehicles that plan to evade the facilities at Mantsole Traffic
Control Station. Hazchem spillage will affect agriculture with regard to the
underground water should road and rail accidents happen in close proximity to the
Pienaarsrivier on the N1 or R101. The biggest threat to humans is a road accident in
town and rail accident in the industrial area due to the movement of the truck and
goods trains through the town.
The Hazchem problem is further aggravated by the fact the emergency services of
Bela-Bela have no Hazchem equipment to deal with any incident. EMS staff is of the
opinion that they have the basic skills but lack the resources and equipment to support
the skills. In case of an accident the nearest Hazchem, response will be from Tswane
or Polokwane in the form of Tswane EMS and Wastetech. Municipal and other
stakeholders are very worried about the response times should a major incident occur.
The frequency and volume of Hazchem movement through the Bela-Bela municipal
area warrants the establishment a Hazchem response facility that has the ability to
operate to support it municipal neighbors of Tswane and Polokwane. Bela- Bela is
ideally situated to support the other municipal alongside the N1 to the north.
7.6 Epidemics. The whole area of Bela-Bela is considered prone to epidemics due to its
transit nature and the movement of people through the area. Epidemics will become a
factor after heavy flooding of the area due to the nature of the gumbo or black turf soil in
the area. Stakeholder are concerned about the informal settlement the presently pose the
highest risk. Cholera outbreak occurred on a small scale during 2001 and affected the
areas of Klein Kariba after the Bela-Bela dam broke. The capacity to identify the
problem is high due to the clinic infrastructure but the capacity to deal with the problem
is regarded as very low. Limited assistance is received from the district. Very little to no
assistance is received from the Department of Health and Welfare. No prior experience
has been gained concerning the impact on the economy and labor force of Bela –Bela.
Foot and mouth problems exist in the Alma and Ellisras areas. Great volumes of game
and cattle are transported through the area. Municipal authorities have no control over
the movement of the animals. The biggest threat in terms of affected meat products
will come from the abattoirs in Modimolle from where Bela-Bela receives its meat.
7.7 Droughts. The average rainfall for the area is between 400 and 700 mm per annum.
The northeastern area is the catchment area of Bela-Bela. Bela-Bela receives its water
from two dams that has a present capacity of about one years reserve if no rain is
received. The Magaliesberg Waterproject underground water pipeline from Roodeplaat
dam north of Pretoria supplies Bela-Bela with a constant flow of about one million
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cubic meters of water per month constantly replenishes the two town reservoirs. The
informal settlement of Fingerkraal has a 5000l reservoir above the ground.
Pienaarsrivier also has its own reservoir from where the community receives their
drinking water. Radium informal settlement and Tweefontein receive their drinking
water from boreholes and is reliant on underground water. Now water is limited in the
area. Mobile water supplies have already been received from the SANDF in various
places throughout the area. The biggest threat now is within the commercial farming
community concerning crops and livestock.
7.8 Strong Winds. Strong wind and Tornados do occur in the area and is regarded as a
low risk. The Springbokvlakte has only experience two tornadoes during the last fifty
years but of devastating proportion. Bela-Bela experienced the last tornado in 1995.
Serious damage was done to the overhead power lines. The minimum down time is
two days. The town does not have the ability to received power due to the switching
from different areas. The biggest problem during that time was crime due to the
darkness at night. This situation has no affect on the hospital due to standby facilities
at the hospital. Damage due to strong winds normally occurs in the
Raduim/Hammanskraal areas due to the informal nature of the area. Damage is limited
to structures in general with damages caused to roofs.
7.9 Crime. Crime is of general concern to everybody. Hijackings at off ramps and robots
occur regularly. Housebreaking theft from and out of motor vehicles is increasing in
the CBD. Rape and child abuse is high in Bela-Bela Township.
7.10 Undocumented Persons. The problem seems to be of low risk and is mostly subjected
to undocumented persons moving through the area to Gauteng. No information was
received from Home Affairs.
7.11 Accidents. Generally, the risk is low on the N1 and R101 but increase during long
weekends, school holidays and special events during the months of April and
September. Heavy vehicle accidents due to overloading are low due to the Traffic
Control facility at Mantsole. Only one (1) goods train accident has occurred at Willem
Station between Pienaarsrivier and Bela-Bela. The spillage was of an Acid nature and
assistance was received from Tswane EMS.
7.12. Industrial Action. Risk is low and was limited to municipal strike during July 2002.
Areas that were affected were refuge removal, traffic disruption caused by marches
and the non-payment of services No problems expected in the near future. The
proposed cemetery site in Bela-Bela Township that has been invaded by squatters and
the associated movement of these affected people is presently of concern.
7.13. Sinkholes. Very low risk but could occur in the Rust de Winter area of Welgevonden
mine.
7.14. Terror / Sabotage. Although treats were received during December 2002 and January
2003 to blow up the municipal offices and Klein Kariba, the risk is deemed low. All
stakeholders feel that now government structures at a national level have the situation
under control.
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8.
MODIMOLLE
8.1
The geographical size of Modimolle forms 9, 75 % of the Waterberg District
Municipal area and has an estimated population of 60 969 people. This population
represents 32 501 urban and 28 468 rural people with 12 367 households and a
average of 4, 93 people per household. This area has a unemployment rate of 10, 69
% with 5 934 households earning less then R 1000 per month (poverty line) and 631
households that has no income. 60, 71 % of the population is between the ages of 15
to 65. Modimolle is the 4 th largest municipality in the Waterberg District
Municipality.
8.2
Risk profile in terms of priority according to severity
Serial Hazards
No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
11.
12.
8.1
Low
Risk
(LR)
Fires
1.3 Veldt
1.4 Informal Settlements
Floods
2.1 Flash Floods
2.2 Dam/River Floods
Hazardous Chemicals ( Hazchem)
Epidemics
Draughts
Strong Winds
Crime/Lawlessness
Undocumented Persons
Accidents
9.1 Road
9.2 Rail
9.3 Air
9.4 Mines
Industrial Action
Prison Riots
Terror/Sabotage
Medium
Risk
(MR)
High
Risk
(HR)

Priority
3

1




5
2
8
7
4
11
6



9
12
10



Floods. The Nyl and the Shangrila rivers flow through the town and can cause
disruption during heavy rains. Road and rail infrastructure have damaged in the past
in area north of town at Moddernek and Donkerpoort , tar road at farms Leeupoort
and Boschhoek , Tweestroom/Weltevreden and Nooitgedacht at Vaalwater. Damage
was cause to railway lines where they run next to the tar road R 517. Flooding was
also experienced in the areas southwest of Alma on the farms Klipdrift,
Rhenosterpoort, Langkloof and Rietvly. The area north of Vaalwater Leeudrift,
Boekenhoudt and Hartebeespoort in the Zandriver has also experienced flooding in
the past. Flooding caused damages to roads that influenced heavily on the movement
of the farming community and movement along the R517.Acsess to Modimolle from
Vaalwater is restricted. It also has a serious problem on the response times of EMS.
Floods negatively impact on the informal settlements of Modimolle, Leseding and
Alma. In addition, especially farmers that farm along the major rivers as indicated.
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The Sewage works of Modimolle is effected when it seriously rain and may cause
water born diseases. Municipal structures does not have the capacity to deal with
serious floods and relay on external help from other departments e.g. SAPS,
SANDF.
8.2
Epidemics. Areas of concern are Phagameng in Modimolle, Leseding at Vaalwater
and Alma. The local medical infrastructure in both Vaalwater and Modimolle does
not have the capacity to deal with serious epidemics concerning availability of wards
and beds.
8.3
Fires. Serious problem during the months of April until the rains in August.
Mountainous areas around Modimolle and Alma have regular fires. These areas
restrict the movement of vehicles and fires are normally leaved to burn out of
control. These fires move into the farming community that effects game farming.
Unprotected farms of owners that live outside the municipal area are problematic.
Only one (1) fire vehicle with 700 L of water for the area.
8.4
Crime. Incidents of crime in the Modimolle, Vaalwater, Alma is high and reportedly
committed by people outside the area. Law enforcement structures do not have the
capacity to deal with the problem.
8.5
Hazardous Chemicals. Highest volume and frequency on N1. No control of
movement. The biggest risk is the lack of capacity by municipal law enforcement
end EMS to deal with spillages and strain on medical services. May heavy-duty
vehicles drive through Modimolle to avoid the toll road payments that in turn are
causing an increase of traffic through Modimolle.
8.6
Modimolle has limited capacity, which in turn makes it very vulnerable.
9.
MOOKGOPHONG
9.1 The geographical size of Mookgophong forms 4 07 % of the Waterberg District
Municipal area and has an estimated population of 25 484 people. This population
represents 20 862 urban and 4 622 rural people with 5 504 households and a average
of 4, 63 people per household. This area has a unemployment rate of 24, 28 % with 5
934 households earning less then R 1000 per month (poverty line) and 727 households
that has no income. 53, 11 % of the population is between the ages of 15 to 65.
Mookgophong is the 6 th largest (smallest) municipality in the Waterberg District
Municipality.
9.2 Risk profile in terms of priority according to severity
Serial Hazards
No
1.
Low
Risk
(LR)
Fires
1.5 Veldt
1.6 Informal Settlements
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12-Feb-16
Medium
Risk
(MR)
High
Risk
(HR)

Priority
1
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2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
11.
Floods
2.1 Flash Floods
2.2 Dam/River Floods
Hazardous Chemicals ( Hazchem)
Epidemics
Draughts
Strong Winds
Crime/Lawlessness
Undocumented Persons
Accidents
9.1 Road
9.2 Rail
9.3 Air
9.4 Mines
Industrial Action
Terror/Sabotage

5







2
3
6
4
7
8
9

10
11

9.3 . Fires. Veldt fires are the biggest risk throughout the whole area. Agricultural activity
is mainly cattle and game farming. Vegetation consists of grass and bush. Fires occur
during June/July to October/November of each year. During August and September,
strong winds assist the fires. More fires occur on the farms then next to the highway
because the authorities responsible for maintenance keep the grass short. It is estimated
that 50 % of fires occur on unoccupied farms belonging to owners that live outside the
area. The informal settlement of Phomolong 1 and 2 has 682 informal structures and
pose a big risk. The local fire services do not have the capacity to deal with big shack
fires. SANDF regularly assist the farmers in extinguishing veldt fires.
9.4. Hazardous Chemicals. The transportation of hazardous chemicals through the town is
high on both the N1 and the R101. The routes via Mookgophong and Roedtan to the
north are frequently used to avoid paying Toll fees. A High percentage of these trucks
that move through the town are from Zimbabwe and Zambia. The roadworthiness of
these vehicles is not up to standard.
Law Enforcement agencies do not have the
capacity to deal with the high volumes and frequency of movement. The last Hazchem
incident took place during December 2002 on the N1 between Modimolle and
Mookgophong during which Hydrochloric Acid gas was involved. Only the driver of
the truck was injured. The road was closed at Middelfontein. Heavy tanker trucks use
the R101 and back roads to avoid the Mantsole Traffic Control Centre. During 2000, a
train accident occurred at Middelfontein. Two goods trains collided head on. No
Hazchem spillage occurred because the chemical containers were empty. The
industrial area has four (4), above ground, fuel storage tanks. These tanks are filled
with diesel and have a capacity of approximately 15 000 liters. The nearest residential
property to the storage tanks are 800 meters away from the industrial area. The centre
of town also has a gas storage container in which 25 to 30 000 liters of LP Gas is
stored. Emergency Services are satisfied that these storage facilities are maintained
according to the required standards. The SANDF has a very large ammunitions storage
facility outside town. It is reported that the SANDF facilities are well maintained and
does not pose an immediate threat to the community due to the distance from town. All
stakeholders believe that the SANDF has the capacity to deal with a serious explosion
if it occurs. The SANDF also assists the community with extinguishing veldt fires
when it occurs.
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9.10. Epidemics. The area experienced a cholera outbreak during 2000. The outbreak lasted
for three months. The outbreak was contained with the help of the health department.
The municipality only has three (3) clinics in the areas of Roedtan, town centre and
Phomolong. The new health centre is not yet operational. Presently the nearest hospital
is the Voortrekker Hospital in Mogalakwena. All stakeholders are of the opinion that
fresh drinking water, sewage and refuge removals in town are up to standard and in
good order.
9.11 Crime. According to a senior SAPS representative, the crime rate is on the increase.
This situation is confirmed by the municipal law enforcement agency. General theft,
housebreaking and assault seem to be the main problem. The problem is aggravated by
the high levels of unemployment. Drugs and prostitution is a serious problem in the
CBD due to the high volumes of transport that move through the town. Reported
incidents of child abuse and family violence are increasing which is cause by
unemployment and high consumption of alcohol. The area of Roedtan has a high level
of water pump theft that has a serious effect on the availability of drinking water for
cattle.
9.12 Undocumented Persons. The movement of undocumented persons is an ongoing
problem and becoming a serious problem involving citizens from the neighboring
Zimbabwe and Mozambique. These people are arrested by the law enforcement
agencies and deported to there country of origin. The turnaround time for deportees to
arrive back in the area is two (2) days. Law enforcement agencies are frustrated by this
situation because all their efforts, time and funds are wasted. They feel that their
efforts have no impact on the situation. The increasing number of reported cases by the
community regarding these people also indicated the high levels of dissatisfaction by
the community. During 2000, undocumented persons occupied RDP houses that were
allocated to local people. This situation caused tension among the community.
According to law enforcement agencies, 40 to 50% of crime incidents involve
undocumented persons.
9.13. Accidents. Serious road accidents mainly occur on the N1 and R101. EMS deal with
at least one (1) serious accident per day. Accidents are higher at night and are caused
by overloading and un roadworthy vehicles. Four (4) passenger trains pass through the
town every day. Two during the day and two during the night. These trains are en
route to Musina and Zimbabwe. Approximately 2 to 3 people are killed per month
after being thrown from the trains. A large percentage of these people are no identified
and deemed undocumented persons. Ten to fifteen incidents of theft of cables are
reported per year. Authorities are concerned that these incidents can lead to train
accidents.
9.14 Draughts. The annual rainfall figure for this area is about 600mm per annum. The
town receives it water from the Frikkie Geyser dam in the Sterkrivier. The town also
has two reservoirs that are fed by the dam and boreholes in the Nyl River. Roedtan
receives its water from boreholes in the area. Informal settlements make use of taps
supplied by the municipality. The draught in the WDM is also affecting this area and
especially the cattle and game farming community. The loss of game has a serious
impact on the tourism industry of which the whole area is very dependant. The
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increasing number of veldt fires out of veldt fire season is mainly caused by the
prevailing draught conditions and impacts on grazing for cattle and game.
9.15 Strong Winds. Strong winds have occurred in the past prior to the beginning of the
rainy season. Strong winds have only affected the areas surrounding the town in the
past. It has had no effect on the town itself. Extensive damages were done to roofs of
buildings and houses of informal settlements surrounding the town. All stakeholders
are of the opinion that strong winds would cause extensive damage in the town and
should prepare to cope with such an eventuality.
9.16 Floods. The area around the is generally flat with the water gradually flowing from
west to east towards the Nyl river. Heavy down pours in a short space of time do
created flooding within the town. The storm water system of the town does not have
the capacity to deal with flash floods. The layout of the town is also from west to east.
The main road and railway lines are at the lowest part of the CBD. The water normally
accumulates in the main road after heavy rains and causes disruptions to the flow of
traffic. The sewage system also fails due to heavy rains. Large areas of stagnant water
form in the areas were the Nyl River meets with the N1 highway.
10. MOGALAKWENA
10.1 The geographical size of Mogalakwena forms 50, 50 % of the Waterberg District
Municipal area and has an estimated population of 315 893 people. This population
represents 123 417 urban and 192 476 rural people with 61 819 households and an
average of 5, 11 people per household. This area has an unemployment rate of 46,
02 % with 35 466 households earning less then R 1000 per month (poverty line)
and 8 463 households that has no income. 45, 15 % of the population is between the
ages of 15 to 65. Mogalakwena is the largest municipality in the Waterberg District
Municipality.
10.2 Risk profile in terms of priority according to severity.
Serial Hazards
No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Low
Risk
(LR)
Fires
1.7 Veldt
1.8 Informal Settlements
Floods
2.1 Flash Floods
2.2 Dam/River Floods
Hazardous Chemicals
(Road/Rail/Industrial)
Epidemics
(cholera/malaria)
Draughts
Strong Winds/Storms
Crime/Lawlessness
(hostage/terror/sabotage)
WDM: Disaster Management Plan - Ref: Ch 2 hh
Medium
Risk
(MR)

12-Feb-16
High
Risk
(HR)

Priority
3

2

4

5


6
1
9
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8.
9.
10
11.

Undocumented Persons
Accidents
9.1 Road
9.2 Rail
9.3 Air
9.4 Mines
Industrial Action
(strikes/riots)
Explosions


7
8
11

10
10.3
Strong Winds. Strong winds occur during the months of April to august every year.
The effected areas are normally Mapela, Bakenburg, Steilloop and Marken. The size
of the area is approximately 100 square kilometers and covers 60 % of the municipal
area. The area in question is rural are and the buildings are a combination of brick,
corrugated iron and traditional structures. The storms do not occur at any specific
time of the day and do occur during the night. Relief efforts in the mountainous areas
are difficult during the night. Damage to property does range from roofs of schools
and houses blown away to structural collapse of traditional houses. This area
concerned has in the past been declared disaster area assistance was received from
EMS Polokwane and local disaster management structures. Local structures do not
have the capacity to deal with large and devastating windstorms. This hazard is
classified as the first priority due to size of the area and amount of lives it affects
simultaneously. The facilities to jointly manage such a disaster, where all
stakeholders are present do not exist now.
10.4
Floods. The annual rainfall for this area is 700 mm per year. This amount was
recorded in 2001. Flash floods do occur during the period March to October each
year. The severity of the floods differs from time to time. The areas mostly affected
are Mapela, Bakenburg, Steilloop, Marken, Raaslid, Scirapes, Molopile, and
Gagapeng. The water tables in these areas are very high resulting in large areas of
stagnant water. These stagnant pools of water can last for up to six months. These
pools of water increase the risks of water born diseases. The nature of the ground
formation might lead to temporary relocation during heavy flooding. This situation
would have serious implications on subsistence farmers. It will no seriously
influence the bigger farming operations. The Mogalakwena River itself is no serious
threat to the community in general. The Sterkrivier do have a threat on commercial
farming activities in the. Steilloop area when heavy rains are experienced.
10.5
Fires. Veldt fires are the biggest hazard of any other types of fires in the area. The
vegetation throughout the area is a combination of grass and bush. Fires occur
mostly during the months of August to December each year. Due to the pending
drought, fires were also experienced from June 2002 to February/March 2003. Fires
start next to roads and in villages but mainly in villages. It is estimated that
approximately 80% of game farms belong to owners who live outside the areas and
are not properly managed in terms of the prevention of veldt fires. The area is reliant
on the organized farming community to extinguish the veldt fires. Rural fire fighting
structures are unorganized in terms of structure and equipment and urgently need
attention. The municipal fire department is only responsible for own property and
fires within the boundaries of the town. Several fires start on mining property. It is
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reported that mining authorities neglect their properties that increase the risk of fires.
Run away veldt fires have a devastating effect on crops and livestock.
10.6
Hazardous Chemicals. The N1 highway passing Mogalakwena carries an estimated
650 to 700 trucks per week loaded with hazardous materials. A large number (50%
+) pass through the CBD to avoid paying toll fees and the Mantsole Traffic Control
Centre. This situation increases the risk of chemical spillages in town. Law
Enforcement agencies are under staffed and do not have the capacity to deal with this
problem. Two Hazchem incidents occurred during January 2003 on the highway.
The first incident involving a head-on collision spilling liquid chlorine and the
second incident involving a truck carrying Jet A1 fuel with a leaking valve, resulting
in a serious flammable situation.
10.6.1 The rail network runs south/north and north/south through the industrial and
residential area of Chrome Park and EXT 9. This rail link is part of the rail network
to Zimbabwe. A derailment took place during July 2002 near Chrome Park spilling
chemical liquids. No evacuations were necessary at the time.
10.6.2 The industrial area has the following chemical storage facilities:
10.6.2.1
Caltex and Engen fuel depots each with a capacity of one million liters,
stored above ground.
10.6.2.2
Neon Oil – Hexane of 46 000-liter tank.
10.6.2.3
CBS Cotton Seeds Processors – Hexane off 23 000 –liters in underground
tanks.
10.6.2.4
Bosveld Petroluem - 23 000-litres in tanks above the ground.
10.6.2.5
Bosveld Fuel Distributors – 84 000-litres of parafine.
10.6.2.6
Protea Park Hotel – 1000-litres of gas in tanks above the ground.
10.6.2.7
Northern Gas Distributors – 5000-litres gas in tanks above the ground.
The above installations are regularly inspected by the fire prevention officers and are
maintained to standards regulating the industry. The Hazchem capacity of the municipality
is not up to standard should serious Hazchem incidents occur and needs urgent attention.
The municipality relies heavily on the assistance from WasteTech if a spillage occurs.
10.7
Epidemics. Cholera outbreaks occurred during March and April 2000, 2001,2002 in
the areas north of the town, Mosesetjane, Sekgoboko, Ga-Magongwa and Sepharane.
Pit latrines mixing with drinking water from boreholes caused the outbreak. The
method of dealing with cholera is based on the National Department of Health’s
guidelines for Cholera Control. This program is based on Etiology of cholera,
Epidemic Preparedness, Prevention and Control, Surveillance and Reporting,
Treatment, Training and Intersectoral Collaboration. It seems that this area has the
capabilities of early detection of cholera but lack the medical capacity to deal with
large outbreaks. Malaria cases were reported in the Bakenburg area but were caused
by people visiting other areas.
10.8
Droughts. Traditionally the area of Mogalakwena is known to have limited water
resources. The annual rainfall for the area is 700 mm. Water is supplied to the
community by boreholes, Doringdraai Dam and four (4) reservoirs. The reservoirs
supply the town with water. The rural areas are reliant on boreholes only. The rural
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communities are the first to experience a water shortage when the boreholes start to
dry up. Water has been supplies to villages north of the town for the last three (3)
months. Water restrictions have been imposed, limiting the consumption rate of
households. The drought has also seriously affected the fire departments ability to
attend to serious building fires in town, should they occur.
10.9
Undocumented Persons. This is an area of serious concern to all stakeholders.The
problem is increasing every day. Now approximately 1000 Undocumented persons
are deported back to their countries of origin. These people are mainly from
Zimbabwe and arrive in the area due to unemployment and poverty in Zimbabwe.
This situation seriously influences the crime levels in the area, facilities and capacity
of the SAPS to deal with the huge influx, medical system, overcrowding in informal
settlements and cheaper labor on farms.
10.10 Explosions. See Hazardous Chemicals.
10.11 Accidents. The biggest area of concern is the capacity of the EMS to cope with
Major road and train accidents in the area. During the months of April and
September the road have a high volume of busses traveling through the area. Two
incidents took place during August 2002 where 102 patients had to be removed from
the scene of the accident and taken to hospital for treatment.
11.
LEPHALALE
11.1
The geographical size of Lephalale forms 15, 56 % of the Waterberg District
Municipal area and has an estimated population of 97 341 people. This population
represents 14 810 urban and 82 531 rural people with 20 799 households and a
average of 4, 68 people per household. This area has a unemployment rate of 25,
79 % with 12 929 households earning less then R 1000 per month (poverty line)
and 2 542 households that has no income. 53, 32 % of the population is between
the ages of 15 to 65. Lephalale is the second largest municipality in the Waterberg
District Municipality.
11.2
Risk profile in terms of priority according to severity.
Serial Hazards
No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Low
Risk
(LR)
Fires
1.1Veldt
1.2 Informal Settlements
Floods
2.1 Flash Floods
2.2 Dam/River Floods
Hazardous Chemicals ( Hazchem)
Epidemics
Draughts
Strong Winds
Crime/Lawlessness
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Medium
Risk
(MR)
High
Risk
(HR)





1
5


Priority
6
2
3
10
4
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8.
9.
10
11.

Undocumented Persons
Accidents
9.1 Road
9.2 Rail
9.3 Air
9.4 Mines
Industrial Action
Terror/Sabotage

7
8


9
11
11.3
Fires. Veldt fires are the biggest hazard in this area. . The coverage is a
combination of grass and bush. The most fire occurs in the area occur it influences
the traffic on these roads. It occurs mainly during the months of May to August.
The volunteer fire fighting corps is not up to standard and should be addressed
urgently. Veldt fires pose a big threat to the agricultural sector in terms of the loss
of crops such as grapes, maize, tobacco and livestock. The tourism industry in the
area is also negatively affected due to the loss of livestock within the hunting
industry resulting in the loss of foreign income to the area. It also poses a threat to
the informal settlements of Marapong. Due to the pending drought, fires were also
experienced from June 2002 to February/March 2003. Fires start next to roads and
in villages but mainly in villages. Unprotected farms of owners that live outside the
municipal area are problematic. These farms are not properly managed in terms of
the prevention of veldt fires. The area is reliant on the organized farming
community to extinguish the veldt fires. Rural fire fighting structures are
unorganized in terms of structure and equipment and urgently need attention. The
municipal fire department is only responsible for own property and fires within the
boundaries of the town. Run away veldt fires have a devastating effect on crops
and livestock.
11.4
Epidemics. Foot and Mouth is a serious problem in the area due to the movement
of cattle and game from Zimbabwe and Botswana. The border with Botswana has
no fence and the Limpopo River has no water resulting in greater freedom of
movement. There is no control over the movement of these animals. People that
reside alongside the Limpopo River also have great freedom of movement.
According to immigration, 100 to 200 people are repatriated back to Zimbabwe
and Mozambique every month. The Department of Immigration only has two
officials in the Lepalale area. This means that there are many people that evade
detection in the area. The relationship between the RSA and Botswana people are
good due to family ties, which in turn makes the problem of immigration even
more difficult to manage. This also implies that the area is facing a serious risk in
terms of the spreading of diseases from outside the RSA border that influence
people and livestock. Typhoid and Diarrhea are experienced in the rural areas due
to pit toilets and boreholes for drinking water that affect each other during the rain
season. Sanitation is not good in the rural areas. The municipality has a program in
place to address the problem.
11.5
Draught. The annual rainfall figure for this area is about 600mm per annum from
November to March. The town had approximately 100 mm during January 2003.
In the farming, area irrigation takes place from the Palala, Mogol and Limpopo
rivers and to a lesser extent from the Matlabas River. Farms that do not get water
from the above-mentioned rivers have boreholes for household and cattle. The
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town receives water from the Mogolodam via a pipeline to reservoirs at
Onverwacht and Lephalale. The areas of Silica and Shongwane are the most
affected now because these areas have no water for subsistence farming.
11.6
Crime. Crime is increasing in the area. Housebreakings and Assaults are the
highest now. The law enforcement agencies do not have the capacity to deal with
the increasing levels of crime. There is a serious need for satellite police stations in
the area.
11.7
Floods. The last flooding in the area took place in 1997 due to rain when the
Mogol River flooded its banks. Pumps were washed down the river affecting the
farmers to pump water for household use. The bridge over the Mogol River is a
single bridge and serious affects access to Lepalala from Thabazimbi and
Mogalakwena. The flooding causes the town to be inaccessible. During 1997, this
situation lasted for two weeks. The low cost housing g project of Thabo Mbeki is
developed below the flood line and could result in the loss of many lives during
floods.
11.8
Undocumented Persons. See Epidemics concerning movement of undocumented
persons.
11.9
Hazardous Chemicals. The railway lines are not in use any more and do not pose
a threat. The border posts of Groblershoop and Stockpoort is used by road
transport. The town only has a single entry and exit point and could be a problem
during a spillage.
11.10
Accidents. The medical infrastructure has been tested in the past with serious
accidents with up to 80 patients. Medical staff is of the opinion that they have the
capacity to deal with serious incidents. Mutual assistance agreements are in place
between Lepalala and surrounding municipalities including the provincial
structures.
11.11
Industrial Action. No risk.
11.12
Strong Winds. Strong winds occur during August to January each year. The last
storm happened December 2002. Damage was done to the roof of one school. The
last severe storm was experienced in 97/98 where many school buildings were
damaged to such an extent that it disrupted the education system. Lepalala do not
have the capacity to deal with such sever windstorms and will rely on assistance
from outside.
11.13
Terror and Sabotage. Although the risk is high due to the nature of the nature of
the regional politics, it is regarded as a national problem a therefore the situation
will be dealt with by the national structures.
12
THABAZIMBI
12.1
The geographical size of Thabazimbi forms 10, 67 % of the Waterberg District
Municipal area and has an estimated population of 66 693 people. This population
represents 29 276 urban and 37 417 rural people with 13 528 households and a
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average of 4, 93 people per household. This area has a unemployment rate of 7, 97
% with 6, 143 households earning less then R 1000 per month (poverty line) and
707 households that has no income. 74, 48% of the population is between the ages
of 15 to 65. Thabazimbi is the 3 rd largest municipality in the Waterberg District
Municipality.
12.2
Risk profile in terms of priority according to severity.
Serial Hazards
No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
11.
12.
13.
14.
Low
Risk
(LR)
Medium
Risk
(MR)
High Risk Pri
(HR)

Fires
1.9 Veldt
1.10
Informal Settlements
Floods
2.1 Flash Floods
2.2 Dam/River Floods
Hazardous Chemicals ( Hazchem)
Epidemics
Draughts
Strong Winds
Crime/Lawlessness
Undocumented Persons
Accidents
9.1 Road
9.2 Rail
9.3 Air
9.4 Mines
Industrial Action
Sinkholes
Terror/Sabotage
Landslides
Explosions (Mines)

7












1
5
3
4
10
2
8
9
12
6
14
11
13
12.3
Fires. Fires occur from May to August/September. The draught has also
aggravated the situation. Winds do have an effect on the fires but do not blow in
any specific direction. Fires start along roads but mainly in and around settlements.
During September/October 2002, a very large fire ravaged the area and was
approximately ten square kilometers in size. The fire started on the farm
Nooitgedagt. Firebreaks are difficult to make in the mountainous area. Many
hectares grazing land and animals were lost. These fires have a huge influence on
tourism affecting the hunting community very seriously. The Marahele National
Park was affected which influenced negatively on tourism. Fires that start on
unprotected farms, which belong to owners that live outside the area, is a huge
problem in the management of veldt fires.
12.4
Crime. Crime is increasing in the area. This is due to the unemployment in the
area. Drugs are also a huge problem due to the migration of mineworkers between
Johannesburg and Thabazimbi. Large areas are not yet covered by cell phones,
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which makes the reporting of crime from the farming community difficult. The
constant theft of copper cables also increases the extent of the reporting problem.
12.5
Epidemics. The medical network and infrastructure is well organized in the area.
Hospitals at Amandabult, Swartklip and Thabo Mbeki. Mutual assistance
agreements also exist with the mining community in the case of serious disaster
situation. A very serious problem now is the indications that the water from the
Crocodile River is contaminated with industrial waste. Water from the
Hartebeespoort Dam flows into the Crocodile River and is used for irrigation and
drinking water for farmers living along the river in the area of Thabazimbi.
12.6
Drought. The area of Thabazimbi receives approximately 500 mm per annum.
During 2000, the area received good rains. The rainfall started declining in 2001
and 2002. 95% of the area is reliant on water from boreholes and 5% receive water
through Rand Water. Serious draught effects are starting to show in the
commercial and game farming community .During the period October 2002 to
February 2003, water is being supplied to the Rooiberg area due to mechanical
problems with the water pumps. The area of Rooiberg is located on old mining
shafts and the draught has depleted all the underground water resources, which in
turn cause the mechanical problems of the pumps.
12.7
Hazechem. The Hazchem capacity of the municipality is not up to standard
should serious Hazchem incidents occur and needs urgent attention. The
municipality relies heavily on the assistance from WasteTech and surrounding
local municipalities if a spillage occurs.
12.8
Sinkholes. Sinkholes have occurred at Schilpadsnest, 30 kilometers out of town
on the road to Northam. This due to the settlement being build on old mine shaft.
The community refuses to be move by the municipality. The fact that the property
belongs to the mine makes the problem even more serious. At Rooiberg, a very
deep cavity was found during 2001.
12.9
Floods. The serious flooding of 2000 was caused by bad dam management at the
Hartebeespoort dam allowing the release of too much water at one time into the
Crocodile River. According to organized agriculture, letters were addressed to the
management of Hartebeespoort Dam to make them aware of the dangers down
stream in the Crocodile River. This situation has to date not been adequately
addressed to prevent a reoccurrence of the situation. The local municipality should
endeavor to assist the local agricultural union to solve this problem even if it
means taking it to the office of the State President. The flooding caused huge
damages to roads and bridges. Bridges were washed away. Part of the railway line
was seriously damaged. Stagnant water pools took more than one week to subside.
This situation has serious implications concerning water born diseases.
12.10
Undocumented Persons. This is an area of serious concern to all stakeholders.The
problem is increasing every day. Now approximately 100 undocumented persons
are deported back to their countries of origin. These people are mainly from
Zimbabwe and arrive in the area due to unemployment and poverty in Zimbabwe.
This situation seriously influences the crime levels in the area, facilities and
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capacity of the SAPS to deal with the huge influx, medical system, overcrowding
in informal settlements and cheaper labor on farms.
12.11
Landslides. Landslides have occurred when mud from old Iscor mine heaps
entered the outskirts of the town. Iscor dug a long ditch above the effect area to
prevent a reoccurrence of the problem in the future. The hazard still exists in the
area and therefore contingencies should be prepared in the event of a mudslide.
12.12
Industrial Action. No industrial action is foreseen for the nearby future. The
mining management has a good relationship with its workers.
12.13
Explosions. Explosions are expected to be underground in the mines and will not
have any adverse effect on the community. Contingencies will prepare in order to
assist the mines if help is requested. All stakeholders are of the opinion that the
mines have the capacity to deal with any eventuality in this regard. The mining
community has committed itself to assist the municipality with resources such as
hospitals, ambulances and other resources when needed.
12.14
Terror and Sabotage. Although the risk is high due to the nature of the regional
politics, it is regarded as a national problem a therefore the situation will be dealt
with by the national structures.
7.
Disaster Insurance
The absence of any disaster insurance means that the government will have to bear a huge
cost for compensation and rehabilitation work. However, the disaster insurance exists in a
number of countries demonstrating the possibilities; it has raised doubts about its efficiency.
The practice of insurance does not reduce the vulnerability but tends to shift the burden of
losses to another location, thereby creating new types of vulnerabilities.
8.
Developmental Policies
The Act on Disaster Management states that the Municipal Disaster Management Plan
should be integrated with the IDP.
All projects and programs should be developmental orientated to address the issues of
poverty alleviation.
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