PART THREE C H A P T E R S I X Decision Making: The Essence of the Manager’s Job 6 Lecture Outline Introduction The Decision-Making Process Step 1: Identifying a Problem Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria Step 4: Developing Alternatives Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives Step 6: Selecting an Alternative Step 7: Implementing the Alternative Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness The Manager as Decision Maker Making Decisions: Rationality, Bounded Rationality, and Intuition Assumptions of Rationality Bounded Rationality Role of Intuition Types of Problems and Decisions Structured Problems and Programmed Decisions Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decisions Integration Decision-Making Conditions Certainty Risk Uncertainty Decision-Making Styles Decision-Making Biases and Errors Summing Up Managerial Decision Making Decision Making For Today’s World Everyone in an organization makes decisions, but decision making is particularly important in a manager’s job. Decision making is such an important part of all four managerial functions that decision making is said to be synonymous with managing. The complexity of managerial decision making ranges from routine choices to highly complicated issues. In Chapter Six, students learn about the decision-making process and study models and guidelines for making effective programmed and nonprogrammed decisions. The opening situation in “A Manager’s Dilemma” tells of Renee Lum’s challenge as a customer service manager at American Savings Bank in Hawaii. The bank has received very few customer comments on the installation of an interactive voice response system designed to facilitate customers’ use of its services. Students are asked to put themselves in Lum’s position and decide how they would evaluate the effectiveness of the new system. What decision criteria would they use? How would they evaluate the effectiveness of their decision? Can they foresee a situation in which they might have to retrace their steps in the decision-making process and begin again? How might your students use the decision-making process in their lives at the present time? 77 A variety of PowerPoint slides, including both original text art and newly created images, are available for your use in enhancing the presentation of Chapter Six materials to your students. ANNOTATED OUTLINE 1. INTRODUCTION Every manager should strive to make good decisions because the overall quality of managerial decisions has a major influence on organizational success or failure. The concept of decision making is explored in this chapter. NOTES 2. Materials I Plan to Use: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS A decision is a choice made from two or more alternatives. The decisionmaking process is a set of eight steps that include identifying a problem, selecting an alternative, and evaluating the decision’s effectiveness. (See Exhibit 6-1 and PowerPoint slide 6-6 for an illustration of the decision-making process.) A. Step 1: Identifying a problem. A problem is a discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs. In order to identify a problem, you as a manager should recognize and understand the three characteristics of problems: 1. You must be aware of the problem. Be sure to identify the actual problem rather than a symptom of the problem. 2. You must be under pressure to act. A true problem puts pressure on the manager to take action; a problem without pressure to act is a problem that can be postponed. 3. You must have the authority or resources to act. When managers recognize a problem and are under pressure to take action but do not have necessary resources, they usually feel that unrealistic demands are being put upon them. NOTES B. Materials I Plan to Use: Step 2: Identifying decision criteria. Decision criteria are criteria that define what is relevant in a decision. 78 NOTES C. NOTES Q&A Materials I Plan to Use: Step 3: Allocating weights to the criteria. The criteria identified in Step 2 of the decision-making process do not have equal importance, so the decision maker must assign a weight to each of the items in order to give each item accurate priority in the decision. Exhibit 6-2 and PowerPoint slide 6-9 list the criteria and weights for Joan’s franchise purchase decision. Materials I Plan to Use: 6.1 How do decision makers know what weight to assign to the decision criteria? D. NOTES Step 4: Developing alternatives. The decision maker must now identify viable alternatives that could resolve the problem. Materials I Plan to Use: Practical Interactive Skills Modules PRISM #12 Have students go to the Web and explore PRISM #12, which deals with setting goals and creative problem solving. E. NOTES Step 5: Analyzing alternatives. Each of the alternatives must now be critically analyzed by evaluating it against the criteria established in Steps 2 and 3. Exhibit 6-3 and PowerPoint slide 6-11 show the values that Joan assigned to each of her eight alternatives for a franchise opportunity. Exhibit 6-4 and PowerPoint slide 6-13, showing evaluation of her alternatives, reflect the weighting for each alternative, as illustrated in Exhibits 6-2 and 6-3. Materials I Plan to Use: 79 F. Step 6: Selecting an alternative. This step to select the best alternative from among those identified and assessed is critical. If criteria weights have been used, the decision maker simply selects the alternative that received the highest score in Step 5. NOTES G. NOTES Q&A Materials I Plan to Use: Step 7: Implementing the alternative. The selected alternative must be implemented by effectively communicating the decision to the individuals who will be affected by it and winning their commitment to the decision. Materials I Plan to Use: 6.2 What role, if any, do you think politics plays in organizational decision making? Passport Passport Part 3 Scenario 1 Have your students complete Passport Part 3 Scenario 1 involving decisionmaking processes. H. NOTES Q&A 3. Step 8: Evaluating decision effectiveness. This last step in the decisionmaking process assesses the result of the decision to determine whether or not the problem has been resolved. Materials I Plan to Use: 6.3 What if the problem isn’t solved by my decision? Did I make a bad decision? THE MANAGER AS DECISION MAKER At this point in the study of Chapter Six, students will learn about the manager as a decision maker and how decisions are actually made in organizations. In this section, students examine how decisions are made, the types of problems and decisions faced by real-life managers, the conditions under which managers make decisions, and decision-making styles. 80 NOTES A. NOTES Materials I Plan to Use: Managers can make decisions on the basis of rationality, bounded rationality, or intuition. 1. Rational decision making. Managerial decision making is assumed to be rational—that is, making choices that are consistent and value-maximizing within specified constraints. If a manager could be perfectly rational, he/she would be completely logical and objective. The assumptions of rationality are summarized in Exhibit 6-6 and PowerPoint slide 6-17. a. Rational decision making assumes that the manager is making decisions in the best interests of the organization, not in his/her own interests. b. The assumptions of rationality can be met if the manager is faced with a simple problem in which (1) goals are clear and alternatives limited, (2) time pressures are minimal and the cost of finding and evaluating alternatives is low, (3) the organizational culture supports innovation and risk taking, and (4) outcomes are concrete and measurable. Materials I Plan to Use: 2. Q&A Bounded rationality. In spite of these limits to perfect rationality, managers are expected to “appear” rational as they make decisions. Because the perfectly rational model of decision making isn’t realistic, managers tend to operate under assumptions of bounded rationality, which is decision-making behavior that is rational, but limited (bounded) by an individual’s ability to process information. a. Under bounded rationality, managers make satisficing decisions, in which they accept solutions that are “good enough.” 6.4 Satisficing seems like settling for second best. Is that true? b. Managers’ decision making may be strongly influenced by the organization’s culture, internal politics, power considerations, and by a phenomenon called escalation of commitment—an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. 81 NOTES Q&A Materials I Plan to Use: 6.5 Do most high school seniors maximize or satisfice in making their choice of what college to attend? 3. NOTES Q&A Materials I Plan to Use: 6.4 What, if anything, is wrong in using intuition in making decisions? B. Q&A Intuitive decision making. Managers also regularly use their intuition. Intuitive decision making is a subconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgment. Exhibit 6-7 and PowerPoint slide 6-20 describe the five different aspects of intuition. a. Making decisions on the basis of gut feeling doesn’t necessarily happen independently of rational analysis; the two complement each other. b. Although intuitive decision making will not replace the rational decision-making process, it does play an important role in managerial decision making. Types of Problems and Decisions Managers encounter different types of problems and use different types of decisions to resolve them. 1. Structured problems are straightforward, familiar, and easily defined. In dealing with structured problems, a manager may use a programmed decision, which is a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Managers rely on three types of programmed decisions: a. A procedure is a series of interrelated sequential steps that can be used to respond to a structured problem. b. A rule is an explicit statement that tells managers what they can or cannot do. c. A policy is a guideline for making decisions. 6.7 Policies seem kind of wishy-washy. What purpose do they serve? 82 2. 3. NOTES Q&A ? Unstructured problems are problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. These problems are best handled by a nonprogrammed decision that is a unique decision that requires a custom-made solution. Exhibit 6-8 and PowerPoint slide 6-25 describe differences between programmed versus nonprogrammed decisions. a. At higher levels in the organizational hierarchy, managers deal more often with difficult, unstructured problems and make nonprogrammed decisions in attempting to resolve these problems and challenges. b. Lower-level managers handle routine decisions themselves, using programmed decisions. They let upper-level managers handle unusual or difficult decisions. Materials I Plan to Use: 6.8 How do experience and creativity interact in the decision-making process? Thinking Critically About Ethics Hiring a Friend? This critical thinking exercise describes a situation sometimes encountered in organizations when a hiring decision must be made. This decision-making situation can be difficult because it involves a friend. How will your students view the rationality of this decision, given that it now involves a personal variable? Will it make a difference? Should it make a difference? Have students defend their “decisions” by applying the decision-making rules discussed in this chapter. C. Decision-Making Conditions 1. Certainty is a situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known. Few managerial decisions are made under the condition of certainty. 2. More common is the situation of risk, in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. Exhibit 6-9 shows an example of how a manager might make decisions using “expected value,” considering the conditions of risk. 83 ? Managing Your Career Taking Risks How will you approach your various career moves over the course of your lifetime? Will you want to do what you’ve always done? Will you be willing to take chances? How comfortable will you be about taking chances? Responsible risk taking can make outcomes more predictable. One decision-making technique involves making a list of the pros and the cons for each of the decision alternatives. These lists are then compared to determine whether a clear choice is apparent. Considering and answering the following questions may help in making decisions under the condition of risk: Have you thoroughly evaluated the risk? Before committing to a career risk, consider what you could lose or who might be hurt. How important are those things or those people to you? Can you reach your goal in another way, making the risk unnecessary? Find out everything you can about what taking this career risk involves—the timing, the people involved, the changes it will entail, and the potential gains and losses both in the short run and the long run. Are you afraid? Are you ready to act now? Will you know if you have risked more than you can afford to lose? 3. NOTES Uncertainty is a situation in which the decision maker is not certain and cannot even make reasonable probability estimates concerning outcomes of alternatives. a. The choice of alternative is influenced by the limited amount of information available to the decision maker. b. It’s also influenced by the psychological orientation of the decision maker. 1) An optimistic manager will follow a maximax choice, maximizing the maximum possible payoff. (See Exhibit 6-10 and PowerPoint slide 6-28.) 2) A pessimistic manager will pursue a maximin choice, maximizing the minimum possible payoff. (See Exhibit 6-10 and PowerPoint slide 6-28.) 3) The manager who desires to minimize the maximum regret will opt for a minimax choice. (See Exhibit 6-11 and PowerPoint slide 6-30.) Materials I Plan to Use: 84 ? Managing IT Making Better Decisions with IT We know that many students in today’s college classrooms have already gained experience in the business world and are employed part time, and even full time, while pursuing their degree. In this activity, ask students to use their experience in the real world of business to discuss how they have observed and used IT at work. As students share this information, ask them to consider how IT is used in their workplace to help their managers make better decisions. Your students should enjoy and learn from hearing their classmates’ insight into the value of IT in decision making in a variety of work environments. You might expand the discussion by asking students to relate ways in which IT is helping them to make better decisions in their daily lives. D. Decision-Making Styles Managers have different styles in making decisions and solving problems. One perspective proposes that people differ along two dimensions in the way they approach decision making. 1. One dimension is an individual’s way of thinking—rational or intuitive. The other is the individual’s tolerance for ambiguity— low or high. 2. Diagramming these two dimensions lead to a matrix showing four different decision-making styles. (See Exhibit 6-12 and PowerPoint slide 6-33.) a. The directive style is characterized by low tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. b. The analytic style is one characterized by a high tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. c. The conceptual style is characterized by a high tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. d. The behavioral style is characterized by a low tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. Self-Assessment Library Exercise in Handling Ambiguity Managers often face ambiguous challenges and situations in the decision-making process. To better understand your tolerance in managing ambiguous information, complete Self-Assessment #I.A41 “How Well Do I Handle Ambiguity?” You may want to reflect on the following questions: What did you find out about yourself in doing this exercise? Did anything surprise you about your assessment? How can you use this information in helping you refine your decision-making skills? How do you think this information could help you as a manager? 85 3. In reality, most managers have both a dominant style and alternate styles, with some managers relying almost exclusively on their dominant style and others being more flexible, depending on the particular situation. NOTES Q&A Materials I Plan to Use: 6.9 If a person’s decision-making style is relatively fixed, how can organizations get managers to make decisions that are compatible with its culture? Self-Assessment Library Q&A Exercise in Decision-Making Styles 6.10 Is there a best style of decision making? Managers develop various decision-making styles to use in addition to their intuition, creativity, and logic in the decision-making process. To better understand your decisionmaking styles, complete Self-Assessment #I.D.1 “What’s My Decision-Making Style?” You may want to reflect on the following questions: What did you find out about yourself in doing this exercise? Did anything surprise you about your assessment? How can you use this information in helping you refine your decision-making skills? How do you think this information could help you as a manager? ? Managing Workforce Diversity The Value of Diversity in Decision Making Making good decisions can be tough! One important suggestion for making better decisions is to tap into the diversity of the work group. Diverse employees can provide fresh perspectives on issues, offer differing interpretations on how a problem can be defined, be more open to trying new ideas, be more creative in generating alternatives, and be more flexible in resolving issues. Even though diversity in decision making can be valuable, drawbacks exist. Some drawbacks may include a lack of common perspective, which requires more time required to discuss issues; communication challenges (particularly if language barriers are present); and additional complexity, confusion, and ambiguity as a result of diverse opinions. Ask your students about an important decision such as deciding on a major. Did they ask others for their opinions? Did they seek out advice from a variety of people? As future managers in the business world, your students should consider the value added through diversity in decision making. 86 E. NOTES Decision-Making Biases and Errors Managers use different styles and “rules of thumb” (heuristics) to simply their decision making. 1. Overconfidence bias occurs when decision makers tend to think that they know more than they do or hold unrealistically positive views of themselves and their performance. 2. Immediate gratification bias describes decision makers who tend to want immediate rewards and avoid immediate costs. 3. The anchoring effect describes when decision makers fixate on initial information as a starting point and then, once set, fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information. 4. Selective perception bias occurs when decision makers selectively organize and interpret events based on their biased perceptions. 5. Confirmation bias occurs when decision makers seek out information that reaffirms their past choices and discount information that contradicts their past judgments. 6. Framing bias occurs when decision makers select and highlight certain aspects of a situation while excluding others. 7. Availability bias is seen when decision makers tend to remember events that are the most recent and vivid in their memory. 8. Decision makers who show representation bias assess the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles other events or sets of events. 9. Randomness bias describes the effect when decision makers try to create meaning out of random events. 10. The sunk costs error is when a decision maker forgets that current choices cannot correct the past. Instead of ignoring sunk costs, the decision maker cannot forget them. In assessing choices, the individual fixates on past expenditures rather than on future consequences. 11. Self-serving bias is exhibited by decision makers who are quick to take credit for their successes and blame failure on outside factors. 12. Hindsight bias is the tendency for decision makers to falsely believe, once the outcome is known, that they would have accurately predicted the outcome. Materials I Plan to Use: 87 F. NOTES 4. Summing Up Managerial Decision Making 1. Exhibit 6-14 and PowerPoint slide 6-39 provide an overview of managerial decision making. Managers want to make good decisions because doing so is in their best interests. 2. Regardless of the decision, it has been shaped by a number of factors, which have been discussed in Chapter Six. Materials I Plan to Use: DECISION MAKING FOR TODAY’S WORLD Today’s business world revolves around making decisions, which are often risky ones made with incomplete or inadequate information and under intense time pressure. How can managers make effective decisions under these conditions? A. Understand cultural differences. B. Know when it is time to call it quits. C. Use an effective decision-making process. D. Build highly reliable organizations (HROs) that practice five habits: 1. Do not be tricked by your own success. 2. Defer to the experts on the front lines. 3. Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. 4. Embrace complexity. 5. Anticipate, but also recognize the limits to your ability to anticipate. Self-Assessment Library Responding to Turbulent Change Often, managers must make decisions under conditions of turbulent change. To better understand your ability to make decisions in times of rapid change, complete SelfAssessment #III.C.1 “How Well Do I Respond to Turbulent Change?” You may want to reflect on the following questions: What did you find out about yourself in doing this exercise? Did anything surprise you about your assessment? How can you use this information in helping you refine your decision-making skills? How do you think this information could help you as a manager? 88 Focus on Leadership ? Cultural Differences in Leaders’ Decision-Making Styles To strengthen your students’ appreciation for the importance of learning about diverse national cultures in preparation for leadership roles in business, access the following Web sites in class and have students take the culture quizzes on these sites, noting the number of questions that address leadership issues. http://leadershipcrossroads.com/rs_quiz.htm http://www.branchor.com/culturequiz.htm http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/worldsapart/ After completing the quizzes, ask students to discuss the following questions in small groups of two or three students: What aspects of these quizzes surprised you? What implications does this exercise have for you (a) at the present time and (b) in your business leadership role in the future? What kinds of resources have you already discovered through the study of this chapter that will help you learn more about diverse cultures? Answers to Thinking About Management Issues 1. Why is decision making often described as the essence of the manager’s job? As shown in Exhibit 6.5, decisions are made throughout the performance of all four functions of management. Almost anything a manager does in terms of planning, organizing, leading, and controlling involves decision making. The pervasiveness of decision making in management explains why managers are often called decision makers. 2. How might an organization’s culture influence the way in which managers make decisions? An organization’s culture might influence how managers make decisions by indicating how much risk taking is permitted and how much importance is placed on the effectiveness of the decisions made. For example, if an organizational culture rewards decisions that reinforce the status quo, these types of decisions will likely be made. 3. All of us bring biases to the decisions we make. What types of biases might a manager have? What would be the drawbacks of having biases? Could there be any advantages to having biases? Explain. What are the implications for managerial decision making? Students should be encouraged to identify biases that they have encountered or feel that they themselves might have. Examples could include the halo/horn effect, cultural biases, and age biases. The drawback of biases is their limiting effect on behavior. However, when managers are aware of potential biases, they can use their awareness to an advantage. They can better recognize biases held by others and respond more effectively as a result of their knowledge. Managers 89 should be aware that biases can “cloud” a decision maker’s identification or evaluation of alternatives, which ultimately affect the final decision. 4. Would you call yourself a systematic or intuitive thinker? What are the decisionmaking implications of these labels? What are the implications for choosing an employer? Student responses to these questions will vary. A systematic thinker is one who is more logical and rational in searching for and processing information. An intuitive thinker relies more on instincts and past experiences in searching for and processing information. The decision-making implication of this label is that it describes the way we think or process information and in turn, influences how we tend to make decisions. Organizations need both systematic and intuitive thinkers. Each of these styles provides a different perspective. 5. “As managers use computer and software tools more often, they’ll be able to make more rational decisions.” Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Why? Although computer and software tools allow managers to gather information and analyze it more efficiently, utilizing computers does not necessarily allow managers to be more rational. Looking at the assumptions of rationality (see Exhibit 6.6), it is apparent that adding computers to the decision-making process does not guarantee perfectly rational decision making by managers. 6. How can managers blend the guidelines for making effective decisions in today’s world with the rationality and bounded rationality models of decision making, or can they? Explain. A balance is required. Under today’s business conditions (such as intense time pressure and higher degrees of risk and uncertainty), managers must practice sound decision-making approaches. Knowing when it’s time to quit, for example, is not inconsistent with rationality and bounded rationality. 7. Is there a difference between wrong decisions and bad decisions? Why do good managers sometimes make wrong decisions? Bad decisions? How can managers improve their decision-making skills? Time pressures, incomplete information, and higher levels of uncertainty in today’s business environment may lead to ineffective decision making. Managers can improve their decision-making skills by focusing on six characteristics of effective decision-making, including focusing on important criteria, logic and consistency; blending subjective and objective thinking with analysis; requiring the information necessary to resolve a particular dilemma; gathering relevant and informed opinions; and remaining flexible. WORKING TOGETHER—Team-Based Exercise In this team-based activity, small groups of students are to discuss previous decisionmaking experiences. They should discuss whether they feel they made good/bad decisions and what happened during the decision-making process that contributed to the 90 quality of the decision. The group should develop a list of practical suggestions for making good decisions. In preparation for this exercise, you might initiate a class discussion centered on a particular decision-making situation. Ask the class if anyone is considering making a large purchase, such as a car, stereo, computer, or house. Students can help this individual make the decision by offering suggestions following the eight steps of the decision-making process for making a “good decision.” Compiling a variety of decision criteria for a car purchase, for instance, and weighting each criterion can create interest and provide insight for students. Although one student may think that having heated car seats is a must, others may totally disregard this criterion. This class activity should help students to become more comfortable and skillful in using the decision-making process. Answers to Case Application Questions Fast Company 1. How do you think good decision making has contributed to the success of NASCAR? The decisions made by the management of NASCAR have been carefully considered since the founding of the company in 1948 by “Big Bill” France Sr. His grandson Brian carries on the legacy today as chairman and CEO of NASCAR. As the company’s top manager, Brian France uses the steps in the decision-making process to adapt to a changing environment while preserving strengths that have contributed to the phenomenal growth and success of NASCAR. In identifying problems, for example, Brian gathers information from a variety of sources and secures the resources necessary for taking action. Since NASCAR remains a privately held company, the number of its stockholders is much smaller than would be the case if it were a publicly held firm, but Brian is still clearly mindful of the interests of all of the stakeholders of the company when he contemplates alternatives to use in making corporate decisions. 2. A decision to go after a new market as Brian is doing is a major decision. How could he have used the decision-making process to help make this decision? It is clear that Brian is using the eight-step decision-making process in reaching the decision to expand his target market. He faces a two-fold problem: holding the loyalty of the company’s current fans and, at the same time, building a more diverse customer base. After identifying the company’s problem, Brian must apply decision criteria that are consistent with the company’s philosophy and goals. Once the decision alternative has been selected and implemented, it must be followed through and monitored through customer feedback. Much of NASCAR’s historical success can be attributed to management’s responsiveness to its loyal customers, and one can expect that the company’s leadership will actively seek this customer feedback for its decisions now and in the future. 91 3. What criteria do you think would be most important to Brian as he makes decisions about the company’s future? These criteria would include maintaining the viability of the firm; retaining the brand loyalty of NASCAR devotees; ensuring responsible corporate behavior, including car and driver safety; maintaining high quality products and services; and remaining true to the company’s philosophy of origin. 4. Would you characterize the conditions surrounding NASCAR as conditions of certainty, risk, or uncertainty? Explain your choice. Elements of all three conditions can be found. Conditions of certainty exist in the importance of adapting to changing times and changing demographics and being a socially responsible company. The element of risk can be seen as Brian considers changes that threaten to erode his customer base and the support of NASCAR’s sponsors and advertisers, while attracting new markets. The NASCAR organization must make decisions under the condition of uncertainty when it considers factors in the external environment of the future over which it has little control, including the national economy, government regulations, and competing entertainment industries. 5. What could Brian learn from the concept of highly reliable organizations to help him be a better decision maker? Brian is learning several important concepts associated with HROs. As he prepares the NASCAR organization to adapt to changing times, he is leading proactively and is not being “tricked by . . . success.” He remains alert to potential problems and acts quickly and early to prevent them. He recognizes and studies the complexity of the changing business environment in which his company operates and is open to consideration of a variety of alternatives. NASCAR’s leadership anticipates, but also anticipates its limits, as top management thinks by acting and uses decisiveness after careful consideration of the steps in the decision-making process. ADDITIONAL CHAPTER INFORMATION You may want to provide additional challenges for your students by asking them to research a recent business situation in the news. Why do they think some of the decisions were made? Which decision-making styles appear to have been used by management in this situation? 92