Statistical Analysis of Sediment Phosphorus from Silver Lake and Lake Casey in 2002 Iowa Lakes Project Amy Oelmann Undergraduate Student Department of Mathematics University of Northern Iowa Mark D. Ecker Associate Professor Department of Mathematics University of Northern Iowa October 7, 2002 I. Introduction During the summer of 2002, a group of students and faculty members at the University of Northern Iowa continued their study of water quality of two lakes in Iowa. Water quality variables in Silver Lake had been sampled at 20 different sites during the summer of 2001, and those same sites were used for a sediment phosphorus analysis in the summer of 2002. Water quality variables in Lake Casey had been sampled at 23 different sites in 2001, and those sites were also used in the current sediment phosphorus analysis. II. Sediment Depth Profile: Silver Lake Each of the 20 sites in Silver Lake were sampled, with 7 sediment phosphorus concentrations obtained from each site, each at a different depth. The circles in each map represent the sites where the data were obtained, and the numbers are the concentration of phosphorus at that particular site. Figure 1 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus depth profile map from 0 to 2 inches, produced in July of 2002. Table 1 contains the summary statistics for the 0 to 2 inch sediment depth. Figure 1 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile from 0 to 2 inches 387.78 732.04 4698500 39.69 1278.94 11.95 4698300 Northing (m) 606.08 18.65 770.29 11.95 14.82 41.6 844.89 628.76 1006.12 733.95 1021.8 4698100 76.98 1315.38 45.43 422.26 637500 637600 637700 637800 637900 638000 Easting (m) The majority of the sites with the largest concentration of sediment phosphorus in Silver Lake are in the middle of the lake. The samples taken near the perimeter of the lake 2 have a fairly low phosphorus concentration. The highest phosphorus level near the perimeter of the lake is in the southeast corner, where there is a hog lot that is adjacent to the lake. Table 1 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp02 *** *** Silver Lake Depth Profile from 0 to 2 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 500.4680 452.9522 11.9500 41.1225 514.1700 788.9400 1315.3800 The mean sediment phosphorus concentration for the 0 to 2 inch depth is 500.468 ug/g. Some of the samples taken in the lake are much higher than 500. There is a range of concentrations in the 0 to 2 inch depth level equal to 1303.43, (11.95 to 1315.38). Figure 2 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 2 to 4 inches. Table 2 contains the summary statistics for the 2 to 4 inch sediment depth. Figure 2 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile for 2 to 4 inches 4698500 17.69 798.03 4698300 11 1193.96 543.65 1065.79 896.53 4698100 Northing (m) 726.31 637500 637600 637700 637800 Easting (m) 3 637900 638000 There were not as many samples taken at the depth 2 to 4 inches. The largest concentrations of phosphorus are located towards the middle of the lake. The smaller concentrations seem to be near the perimeter. Again, the largest concentration around the perimeter of the lake is in the area where the hog lot is located. Table 2 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp24 *** *** Silver Lake Depth Profile from 2 to 4 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 656.6200 443.4256 11.0000 412.1600 762.1700 938.8450 1193.9600 The mean phosphorus concentration for this depth is slightly larger than the mean from the surface (0 to 2 inch depth), but there is also less data. The spread again is very large, with a range of 1182.96, (from 1193.96 down to just 11). Figure 3 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 4 to 6 inches. Table 3 contains the summary statistics for the 4 to 6 inch sediment depth. Figure 3 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile for 4 to 6 inches 227.12 4698500 804.72 668.93 4698300 16.73 789.55 727.26 735.87 201.78 936.69 151.52 733.95 4698100 Northing (m) 972.07 637500 637600 637700 637800 Easting (m) 4 637900 638000 More samples were taken at this depth than the last, but many of the 20 sites have not been sampled. The concentrations are generally higher than in the previous two depth profiles. Most of the concentrations are in the hundreds, and only one is less than that. The lowest concentration is located on the west side of the lake, near where the lake bends. Table 3 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp46 *** *** Silver Lake Depth Profile from 4 to 6 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 580.5158 333.2194 16.7300 220.7850 730.6050 793.3425 972.0700 The mean and the median in the previous two depths were very close to each other, but as is shows in Table 3, they are very different at the depth of 4 to 6 inches. There is a difference of 150.0892. The range of concentrations at the depth of 4 to 6 inches is 995.34. Figure 4 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 6 to 8 inches. Table 4 contains the summary statistics for the 6 to 8 inch sediment depth. Figure 4 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile for 6 to 8 inches 140.09 4698500 741.6 4698300 573.3 926.53 438.13 722.78 471.52 4698100 Northing (m) 325.62 637500 637600 637700 637800 Easting (m) 5 637900 638000 The concentrations at this level are even larger than before, with the largest still being near the middle of the lake. The smallest concentration is at the northeast corner. Table 4 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp68 *** *** Silver Lake Depth Profile from 6 to 8 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 542.4463 252.2672 140.0900 410.0025 522.4100 727.4850 926.5300 Table 4 shows the summary statistics for the sediment phosphorus at a depth of 6 to 8 inches. The range is 786.44, which spreads from 140.09 to 926.53. The mean and median at this depth have a difference of only 20. But the site with the smallest concentration is much larger than it has been previously. It is now over 100 (140.09 ug/g) while it has been under 17 the three depths before. Figure 5 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 8 to 10 inches. Table 5 contains the summary statistics for the 8 to 10 inch sediment depth. Figure 5 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile for 8 to 10 inches 590.51 4698500 397.34 4698300 422.21 1056.84 346.65 127.67 465.23 107.58 352.39 4698100 Northing (m) 296.93 637500 637600 637700 637800 Easting (m) 6 637900 638000 The results for the 8 to 10 inch depth, concentrations are not much different than seen previously. The largest concentration is towards the middle of the lake, and the smaller ones are near the perimeter. Table 5 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp810 *** Silver Lake Depth Profile from 8 to 10 inches *** *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 416.3350 267.7539 107.5800 309.3600 374.8650 454.4750 1056.8400 Table 5 shows that the largest concentration at this depth is 1056.84 ug/g. Figure 5 shows that this site is located near the middle of the lake, but towards the area where the hog lot runs into the lake. The range at the 8 to 10 inch depth is 949.26.. Figure 6 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 10 to 12 inches. Table 6 contains the summary statistics for the 10 to 12 inch sediment depth. Figure 6 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile for 10 to 12 inches 4698500 370.57 4698300 366.74 595.29 190.04 244.33 204.17 4698100 Northing (m) 259.63 637500 637600 637700 637800 Easting (m) 7 637900 638000 Looking at Figure 6, it is obvious that there are not many sites that were sampled at this depth profile. The sites that have been sampled, however, seem to be having lower sediment concentrations than previously. The site with the largest concentration is still in the middle of the lake, but near the location of the hog lot. Table 6 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp1012 *** *** Silver Lake Depth Profile from 10 to 12 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 318.6814 141.5339 190.0400 224.2500 259.6300 368.6550 595.2900 The largest concentration at the depth of 10 to 12 inches is only 595.29 ug/g. This is much smaller than many of the previous maximum concentrations. The spread at this depth is from 190.04 to 595.29, which gives a range of 405.25. The range at this depth is also much smaller than seen previously. Figure 7 is the Silver Lake sediment phosphorus levels for a depth greater than 12 inches. Table 7 contains the summary statistics for the greater than 12 inch sediment depth. Figure 7 4698700 Silver Lake Depth Profile greater than 12 inches 445.15 4698500 253.89 4698300 248.1 729.81 235.41 235.7 192.69 4698100 Northing (m) 214.68 637500 637600 637700 637800 Easting (m) 8 637900 638000 There were only 8 sites sampled at the depths greater than 12 inches, and there were no concentrations obtained at the far west side of the lake. The phosphorus concentrations seem to be getting smaller with depth, but the site with the largest concentration is still located in the middle of the lake, near the hog lot. Table 7 *** Summary Statistics for data in: sdp12more *** *** Silver Lake Depth Profile greater than 12 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 319.4287 183.1106 192.6900 230.2275 241.9000 301.7050 729.8100 Table 7 shows that the largest concentration was 729.81 ug/g, and this was at the same site as it was previously. The range at the depths greater than 12 inches is 537.12. III. Overall Conclusions for Silver Lake Overall, the average sediment concentration at each depth profile in Silver Lake was well over 300 ug/g, with a maximum mean value of 656.62. The site in the middle of the lake, near the Eastern shore, just West of the hog lot area, consistently has some of the highest concentrations. IV. Sediment Depth Profile: Lake Casey Figure 8 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 0 to 2 inches. Table 8 contains the summary statistics for the 0 to 2 inch sediment depth. 9 Figure 8 4679600 331.35 191.74 267.29 370.57 4679500 404.99 239.55 255.81 290.23 423.16 350.48 492.01 496.79 600.07 351.44 4679400 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile from 0 to 2 inches 343.79 164.96 314.14 4679300 478.63 185.4 252.94 556200 556400 556600 556800 Easting (m) Three sites in Figure 8 do not have a phosphorus concentration level. These sites are where the water flows into the lake. No sediment samples were obtained at these inflow areas (for any depth). The sites with the largest concentration of sediment data are towards the middle of the lake. At the surface depth however, the site with the largest concentration is very close to the site with the lowest concentration. Table 8 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp02 *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile from 0 to 2 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 340.2670 116.2254 164.9600 255.0925 337.5700 409.5325 600.0700 Table 8 shows that the range of concentrations at this depth is 435.11, (164.96 to 600.07). The largest concentration is 600.07 ug/g. 10 Figure 9 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 2 to 4 inches. Table 9 contains the summary statistics for the 2 to 4 inch sediment depth. Figure 9 4679600 250.07 169.74 288.31 339.96 4679500 360.05 134.36 203.21 295.97 244.33 314.14 590.51 529.31 807.59 308.41 4679400 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile from 2 to 4 inches 438.46 405.95 437.51 4679300 688.05 222.34 203.21 556200 556400 556600 556800 Easting (m) Again, there is no data for the three inflow sites, and the largest concentrations are towards the center of the lake. As you can see in Figure 9, the site with the largest concentration is the same from the surface sediment phosphorus analysis, but the site with the smallest concentration has changed. Table 9 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp24 *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile from 2 to 4 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 361.5740 177.5681 134.3600 238.8325 311.2750 437.7475 807.5900 11 The largest concentration at the depth from 2 to 4 inches was 807.59 ug/g, which is much larger than the largest concentration at the surface depth. The range is 673.23. Figure 10 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 4 to 6 inches. Table 10 contains the summary statistics for the 4 to 6 inch sediment depth. Figure 10 4679600 262.5 228.07 246.25 358.13 4679500 283.54 244.33 255.81 261.55 370.57 288.32 369.61 81.76 708.13 192.69 4679400 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile from 4 to 6 inches 483.41 384.91 353.35 4679300 510.19 180.26 207.05 556200 556400 556600 556800 Easting (m) Figure 10 shows that again the largest concentrations are in the middle of the lake, and there are no observations for the three inflow sites. However, the other twenty sites have still been sampled at this depth. The site with the smallest concentration has again changed, but the site with the largest concentration remains the same. Table 10 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp46 *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile from 4 to 6 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 313.5215 138.1307 81.7600 240.2650 273.0200 369.8500 708.1300 12 The largest concentration for this depth is 708.13 ug/g, and the range is 626.37. The smallest concentration at this depth is the smallest seen so far in Lake Casey, with a concentration of only 81.76 ug/g. Figure 11 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 6 to 8 inches. Table 11 contains the summary statistics for the 6 to 8 inch sediment depth. Figure 11 4679600 298.84 311.27 220.43 421.25 4679500 294.06 317.97 233.81 203.21 511.14 476.71 438.46 340.92 925.21 305.53 4679400 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile from 6 to 8 inches 313.19 218.51 4679300 293.11 165.92 265.37 556200 556400 556600 556800 Easting (m) The site with the largest concentration is again at the same site as it has been previously, but the smallest concentration has changed. Some of the largest concentrations are in the western part of the lake. There is no data for the three inflow sites, and there is one other site that has not been sampled at this depth. 13 Table 11 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp68 *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile from 6 to 8 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 344.9953 168.3929 165.9200 249.5900 305.5300 381.0850 925.2100 Table 11 shows that the largest concentration at the depth of 6 to 8 inches is 925.21 ug/g, and the smallest is 165.92. Therefore that the range is 759.29. Figure 12 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 8 to 10 inches. Table 12 contains the summary statistics for the 8 to 10 inch sediment depth. Figure 12 4679600 260.59 254.85 254.85 803.77 4679500 334.25 396.39 349.49 361 484.36 342.83 4679400 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile from 8 to 10 inches 339.01 248.16 4679300 377.26 171.65 556200 556400 556600 556800 Easting (m) Figure 12 shows that there are more sites that have not been sampled, along with the three inflow sites. The site with the largest concentration of sediment data has changed for the first time in Lake Casey. It is now in the western part of the lake. The depth from 14 8 to 10 inches is very different than the previous depths. The site with the smallest concentration has also changed. Table 12 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp810 *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile from 8 to 10 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 355.6043 150.7004 171.6500 256.2850 340.9200 373.1950 803.7700 The range for the 8 to 10 inch depth profile is 632.12, with the largest phosphorus concentration being 803.77 ug/g. Figure 13 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth of 10 to 12 inches. Table 13 contains the summary statistics for the 10 to 12 inch sediment depth. Figure 13 4679600 240.51 223.29 4679500 426.99 581.91 4679400 409.77 246.25 4679300 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile from 10 to 12 inches 276.85 556200 556400 556600 Easting (m) 15 556800 There are very few sites that have been sampled in Figure 13. The site that has had the largest concentration for the majority of the depths was not even sampled at the 10 to 12 inch depth profile. Table 13 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp1012 *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile from 10 to 12 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 343.6529 133.6405 223.2900 243.3800 276.8500 418.3800 581.9100 The largest concentration at the depth of 10 to 12 inches is 581.91 ug/g, which is much smaller than the previous depth. The range for this depth is 358.62. Figure 14 is the Lake Casey sediment phosphorus levels for a depth greater than 12 inches. Table 14 contains the summary statistics for the greater than 12 inch sediment depth. Figure 14 4679600 465.62 4679500 345.7 623.91 4679400 260.59 250.07 4679300 Northing (m) 4679700 Lake Casey Depth Profile greater than 12 inches 556200 556400 556600 Easting (m) 16 556800 The site with the largest concentration in Figure 14 is the same site as in Figure 13. There are even less sites sampled at the depths greater than 12 inches, and still no samples taken at the three inflow sites. Table 14 *** Summary Statistics for data in: cdp12more *** *** Casey Lake Depth Profile greater than 12 inches *** Mean: Std Dev.: Min: 1st Qu.: Median: 3rd Qu.: Max: Concentration 389.1780 157.0977 250.0700 260.5900 345.7000 465.6200 623.9100 Table 14 shows that the smallest concentration was 250.07 ug/g, and the largest was 623.91 ug/g. The range for the concentrations at the depths greater than 12 inches is 373.84. V. Overall Conclusions for Lake Casey Overall, the average sediment concentration at each depth profile in Lake Casey are consistently around the 300-level ug/g, with a minimum mean value of 313.52 and a maximum value of 389.18. The site that contained the largest phosphorus concentration for most depth profiles is toward the middle of the lake, just south of the inflow area near the east edge. VI. Variogram Analysis Figure 15 is the Variogram Cloud for Silver Lake from the depth 0 to 2 inches. The variogram reflects the spatial correlation as a function of distance for all possible pairs of sites. See Carlson and Ecker (2002) for a review of variogram analysis. 17 Figure 15 400000 0 200000 gamma 600000 800000 Variogram Cloud for Silver lake (Depth 0 to 2 inches) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 distance Figure 16 is the Empirical Variogram for Silver Lake from the depth 0 to 2 inches. Figure 16 200000 100000 0 gamma 300000 400000 Empirical Variogram for Silver Lake (Depth 0 to 2 inches) 0 100 200 18 distance 300 400 There is very little evidence of spatial correlation shown in Figure 16. The circles tend towards a line, but there are a few outliers that make the significance not very strong. A horizontal line would indicate no spatial correlation. None of the other depth analysis of phosphorus data (for either Silver Lake or Lake Casey) indicated any evidence of spatial correlation. VII. Wetlands Another part of the project this summer was mapping the wetland area just North of Cedar Falls. This area included Beaver Creek, and several lakes and ponds that drain into the Cedar River. Brad Woodle walked along the creek, and around the lakes and ponds recording points using a GPS system. Then, the points were downloaded onto a computer, which produced several maps of the area. Figure 17 is the map that was made showing all of the lakes and ponds in that area. Figure 18 is the same map, including Beaver Creek. Figure 17 Lakes and Pond 42.584 Pond Island 4 Island 3 Island 2 Island 1 42.582 lat Lakes 4 & 5 42.580 Big Lake Lake 1 East Lake Lake 2 42.578 Lake 3 42.576 -92.517 -92.512 long 19 -92.507 -92.502 Figure 18 Everything 42.58 Lakes, Pond, & Islands lat 42.57 42.56 Beaver Cr eek 42.55 42.54 -92.52 -92.51 -92.50 -92.49 -92.48 long -92.47 -92.46 -92.45 It appears that the lakes and ponds in the wetland area drain into Beaver Creek, which will eventually flow into the Cedar River. VIII. Reference Carlson, E. and Ecker, M.D. "A Statistical Examination of Water Quality in Two Iowa Lakes" (2002). American Journal of Undergraduate Research. 1(2), pp. 31-45. 20