Interactions between Institutional Rules and Community Norms in Natural Resource Governance Authors: Arun Agrawal*, Daniel G. Brown*, Gautam Rao*, Rick Riolo†, Derek Robinson* *School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1041; and †Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, 321A West Hall, 1085 S. University Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1107 Edited by: <ABSTRACT NEEDS TO BE REVISED> Much of the literature on common property has focused on how different kinds of institutions shape the incentives of users who rely on harvesting subsistence related products from a common-pool resource system for their daily need. With the recognition that variations in institutional forms and arrangements matter to resourcerelated outcomes, the explosion of writings on the commons has advanced existing knowledge about how institutions can be designed to improve sustainable resource governance, the relationship of users to each other in relation to resources, and institutional processes themselves. A significant puzzle that has occupied this scholarship is the nature of the differences between formally designed and introduced institutions, and more spontaneously created informal networks, and how such differences have a bearing on resource governance outcomes. This paper focuses directly on this question with the help of an agent-based model built around the interactions of villagers with forests based on the information they derive from their social interactions with their neighbors (an informal network with two-way flows of information) and an externally imposed institution that strictly enforces announced limits on forest product extraction. The paper investigates how changes in the relative dependence of users on information from formal institutions versus informal networks affect user behavior, harvesting levels, and forest-related outcomes. agent-based modeling | common pool resource | fuelwood extraction | institutional governance | norms | social networks Institutions play a particularly important role in influencing local resource use and outcomes for renewable resources such as forests, pastures, irrigation and drinking water and coastal fisheries. However, the signals and sanctions issued by institutions interact with the existing social networks that create norms of behavior in communities. This interaction and various combinations of institutional signaling and enforcement mechanisms, frequency of signaling, social network structure and resource-user’s preferences give rise to an important question for governance theory and the practice of natural resource governance: How are user behaviors and resource-related outcomes affected by rules imposed by formal resource governance institutions in the context of established preferences and informal networks that shape user behaviors through norms? Recognizing that variations in institutional forms and social arrangements matter to resource-related outcomes, the literature on common-property resources has focused on understanding how institutions can be designed to improve sustainable resource governance, the relationship of users to each other in relation to resources, and institutional processes themselves. <Citations – and maybe say a bi t more?> Our focus is on the relationships between institutions, social networks and individuals who are making resource-use choices based on information they receive and their preferences for self-interested consumption versus adhering to rules and norms that contribute to sustaining the community’s common-pool resources. A number of existing definitions of institutions highlight these interactions.1 Where resource governance is concerned, formal institutions produce their effects on outcomes through the information signals they provide to their constituents regarding the use, management, and governance of resources (Fig. 1). When reliably communicated, such information, together with knowledge about the nature of rule enforcement, sanctions, and adjudication, shapes user incentives and behavior, affecting resource outcomes. Household agents both ascertain and create community norms by interacting with agents in their social networks. In the context of community use of common pool resources, e.g., consuming fuel-wood from public forests, norms are informally recognized expected consumption levels established through individuals attempting to match the behaviors of others in their spatial and social networks . Norms can effectively shape behavior through individuals’ desires to avoid informal sanctions or because individuals have positive preferences for contributing to group well-being. <add citations for this paragraph> Note that the flow of information occurs through different pathways for formal institutions and informal social networks. Formal institutions typically monitor the state of the resource and results of previous aggregate behaviors and make subsequent judgments, policy decisions and prescriptions based on those outcomes. Usually these decisions are made more infrequently than the resource-use decisions of the constituents influenced by those policies <citation>. These differences in time-scale have been shown to produce lags in the system that create large-scale inefficiencies <citation> and increase the risk of individuals’ collectively exhausting common pool resources (Hardin 1968). In contrast to aggregate level assessments by formal institutions, information flow through informal social networks is generally more localized, utilizing higher frequency individual interactions that consist of observations of behaviors and actions carried out by socially and spatially nearby constituents <citations>. The relationships shown in Figure 1 suggest that as institutions shape outcomes by structuring formal rules, the prescriptions those rules 1 “institutions are the formal and informal rules of the game in a society (North 1990);” they are “complexes of norms and behavior that persist over time by serving socially valued purposes (Uphoff and Buck 2006);” and they are “humanly crafted mechanisms that structure, mediate, and attenuate social outcomes (Ostrom 1990).” 1 dictate may come into conflict with informal community norms that affect behavior. Faced with the choice of adhering to either rules or to norms, individuals choose among various combinations of the two by selecting a combination that yields high individual “utility,” given their desires for higher incomes or consumption, leisure, lower risks of sanctions imposed by formal institutions or informal social networks, as well as their desire to contribute to sustainable performance of the community’s shared resources. Thus effective formal institutions achieve desirable outcomes by recognizing the existing preferences and social networks in a community, and then using available policy mechanisms (e.g., prescriptive rules) to shape incentives for a sufficient number of individuals and households, such that desired aggregate behavior—sustainable resource use--- is achieved and norms are shifted towards behaviors that also contribute to those outcomes. This paper explores how the effectiveness of institutional rules regarding consumption of common pool resources are affected by the individual preferences and social network structure in a community, using an agent-based model (ABM) built to represent villagers’ choices of forest-resource consumption levels, based on the information they derive from (a) rules imposed by a formal institution to limit fuel-wood extraction and (b) norms that emerge through social interactions with their neighbors. Monitor Inf ormation Institutions Rules Agents - Interactions - Form Expectations Social Interactions Take Actions While the legally defined forests cover 66.5% of the 55,673 km2 area of Himachal Pradesh, only 8976 km2 or 24% of the lands legally defined as forest have crown density above 40% (FDHP 2001). In this context of high population density and competing uses, a number of different institutional mechanisms are in evidence to secure the formal participation of local residents in forest management in Himachal Pradesh. In the context of this trade-off that households face between abiding by formal institutional rules related to forest management and forest sustainability versus meeting subsistence requirements and adhering to norms emerging from social interactions, we used an agentbased model to study the effectiveness of formal institutional rules under varying conditions of household preferences and network interactions. Agent-based modeling. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an approach to representing the properties, behaviors, decision-making strategies, and actions of interacting components in a dynamic system that is composed of actors and their environment. ABMs can be run to evaluate the aggregate system-level implications of individual behaviors, and the diversity and interactions thereof. Because ABMs derive systemlevel outcomes from component interactions, the approach can represent and model non-linear dynamics, positive and negative feedbacks, heterogeneity, learning and evolutionary decision-making strategies (i.e. adaptation), and a range of other analytically intractable processes (Holland 1995, PNAS-99 2002). Furthermore, the ABM approach can be used as a framework to integrate various sources of data, theories, and conceptual models (Janssen and Ostrom 2006; Robinson et al. 2007) and has replicated experimental commons dilemma results (Deadman et al. 2000). Outcomes (Forest Resource) Norms Fig. 1. Conceptual model of the flow of information between institutions, individual agents, and social networks. Methods For a concrete example of the interaction of institutional rules and community norms, we built an agent-based model (ABM) to represent the use of shared forest land as a source of fuel-wood in rural india. <add more words to explain why this particular target system?> Forest Use and Management in Himachal Pradesh, India. Over the last century, forests in Himachal Pradesh, India, have been distributed to the landless, have been the sites of extensive road construction and infrastructure development, and have served as important commercial resources by providing resin for turpentine (Pinus roxburghii), raw materials for paper and pulp – including bamboo (Bambusa bambos) and bhabhar grass (Euloliopsis binata) – and wood packing cases for Himachal Pradesh's important fruit industry. In 2001, over 90 percent of the state’s 6 million inhabitants lived in 16,000 rural villages (DOP 1997), most of which have relied on forest resources to provide fuelwood for cooking and heating. The overwhelming demand for forest resources is further exacerbated by the low-energy density of fuelwood and the inefficient cooking devices with which it is used (Prasad and Verhaart, 1982). Model Description. We developed an ABM to explore how different individual preferences, social networks and the community norms that result alter the effectiveness of rules implemented by formal institutions as a means to promote sustainable use of a forest resource near a small village. The model represents a hypothetical place, but uses several parameter values derived from data and literature on Himachal Pradesh in India (see supplemental text). Our model is composed of three components: two types of agents that represent the key actors ( households and formal institutions) and the resource being utilized (the forest). We model agent behaviors and resource changes over time using discrete monthly time steps. Our focus is on the decisions households make: in particular, at each step, households must decide how much resource to extract. The resource being extracted is fuelwood, which is obtained from local forests and constitutes the primary energy used for cooking in India (ABE 1985, Misra et al. 1988, Bhatt and Sachan 2004). Household Agent Decisions. Household agent decision making is represented using an approach framed as bounded rationality (Simon <citation>). The household agent decides how much wood to extract from the forest at each time step. A household’s preferences over how much to extract, x, are represented by this utility function U(x): c l nr u C L ( n r) U(x) = C(x)^alphaC * L(x)^alphaL * A(x)^alpha (1) Where C(x) is utility from consumption of the extracted fuel-wood, L(x) is the utility from “leisure” (i.e., from time not spent gathering fuelwood) and A(x) is utility from adhering to institutional rules or community norms regarding fuel-wood extraction (which affect the sustainability of the common forest shared by the community). The alpha’s (each in [0,1] and summing to 1) represent the household’s relative preferences for the three components, and thus can vary across 2 households. Details on the form of C, L and A and the parameter values we used are given in the supplemental text. In short: utility from consuming firewood, C(x), increases with x, but with diminishing returns as x approaches a value that depends on household size<footnote>. L(x) varies inversely with x, since more time gathering amount x means less time for other things; L(x) also depends on the state of the forest – less wood in the forest means more time required to collect fuelwood<footnote>. A(x) is a weighted function of two factors that represent the relative importance the agent places on adhering to institutional rules or community norms: A(x) = r * R(x) + (1-r)* N(x), 0 <= r <= 1 (2) R(x) increases to the extent the household’s extraction level x is less than the amount prescribed for that household by the formal institution’s rules (designed to maintain a sustainable forest), and N(x) increases to the extent the household’s extraction level x matches the level of extraction suggested by community norms, as indicated by the average extraction level of the household’s neighbors (spatial or social—see below) during the previous time step. The weighting factor r, which can vary across households, determines the degree to which a particular household places more importance on adhering to institution al rules (larger r) or on community norms (smaller r). To determine how much to extract in a given time step, a household agent selects 10 candidate levels of extraction and chooses the level x* that maximizes the household’s utility, calculated as described above. The candidate levels are drawn from a normal distribution centered on the extraction level the household chose the prior time step2. The household then extracts the amount x* from the forest, reducing the amount of resource remaining. Norms, Household Interactions and Social Networks. Household agents assess (and create) community norms by interacting with agents in their social networks. In rural India, a household’s social network primarily reflects interactions with spatially proximate households. In our model households are embedded in a 2D grid, one household per cell, such that a household’s social network includes its Moore-neighbor households<footnote>. Households also may interact with some more distant households, as a result of various social relationships (e.g., family ties, friendships, etc.). In order to study the effects of different social network structures resulting from varying combinations of adjacent and distant “neighbors,” our model includes a parameter, p, which controls the fraction of non-adjacent neighbors in each household’s social interaction network. In particular, after a household h is placed in the 2D grid and its social network is set to be the list of its Moore neighbors, each neighbor i on that list has probability p of being replaced on the list with a household j randomly selected from the community at large (other than the agent itself), so that h and i are no longer in each other’s social network, but h and j are<footnote>. Once created, the social networks remain fixed for the model run. In our model each household agent uses its social network to assess the community norm regarding extraction levels. In particular, each step the agent computes the average extraction level (from the previous step) of the other agents in its network. That average is taken as the norm that the agent prefers to match when calculating utility N(x) as described for equation 2, above. Thus the dissemination of information among household agents provides an indication to each agent of how 2 In other experiments, the candidate extraction levels were chosen from a uniform distribution over the allowed range for x; results were qualitatively similar and therefore not reported. much resource other agents are using, information that is then factored into their own decision making (in Equations 1 and 2). Note that when p is 0 the interaction network of each agent is its adjacent neighbors, so that clustering is high (many of h’s neighbors are neighbors of each other) and the average path length (following the agents’ links to their neighbors) through the community is long. At the other extreme, when p is 1, each agent has a social network based on neighbors drawn randomly from the community, so that there are very few or no clusters but path lengths between any two agents are also short. And at moderately low p values, the social network has “small world” properties (Watts and Strogatz, 1998), i.e., there are clusters but the average path lengths are short. Thus varying p alters the overall interaction patterns and the flow of information about resource use in a community, which in turn can affect the dynamics of norm formation and stability. By varying p across experiments, we can explore how these social network structures and the dynamics they induce in the spread and stability of norms can alter the effectiveness of institutional rules designed to alter agent behavior. The Formal Institution Agent. The formal institution agent represents a branch of the Indian government that manages the forest resources and aims to maintain both the ecological quality of the forest and its ability to function as a common pool resource for fuel-wood harvest. The formal institution agent determines the sustainable per capita harvest for a given time-period by dividing the net growth of the forest by the population size and weighting it for each household based on its size and estimated fuel-wood requirements. It then informs each household of its allowable (sustainable) extraction level for that time step, which the household uses to calculate utilities for the extraction levels it is considering, as described above. Thus household agents also interact with the formal institutional agent, but unlike the bi-directional inter-household interactions, this interaction is unidirectional in that the institutional agent sends each household a signal indicating the prescribed level of resource extraction that is deemed sustainable, based on the institution’s assessment of the state of the forest. In contrast, the inter-household interactions are bidirectional, and the signals sent reflect the level of resource extracted by the interacting households. Forest Resource. The forest resource is assumed to be a closed-canopy maturing mixed pine and oak forest. The model represents the resouce aspatially, as a total amount of biomass for the entire forest, which grows at some specified growth rate per year. We introduce some variability around the mean growth rate of 2.7% per year (0.01% per month) to incorporate stochastic climatic conditions. The villagers use forest fodder and lop off branches for fuel-wood. In a given time step, the agents can extract fuel-wood until a specified minimal amount of forest biomass remains. Observations of above-ground biomass and carbon allocated to individual tree components (e.g. stem, bark, branches, and foliage) vary widely. Jenkins et al. (2003) demonstrated that a range of 7-30% of biomass for softwood species and 15-95% for hardwood species is allocated to branches, which is the biomass of use to villagers for fuel-wood. For our model, we divided the above-ground biomass and carbon values in half to estimate the amount found in branches. The fraction of the initial forest resource remaining after some period of resource extraction was the primary outcome of interest in our analyses. We used this value as an indicator of the sustainability of extraction levels generated by various household preferences and network structures, and of the influences of rules and norms on sustainability. 3 Computational Experiments We conducted four sets of computational experiments. Each experiment was conducted by comparing among model runs with alternative parameter settings. The experiments were designed to explore how (a) the relative weight agents place on adhering to rules and norms, (b) the proportion of the population with a high preference for consumption, (c) social network structure and (d) the proportion of the population with a high preference for adherence to rules, all affected resource outcomes. The model was run thirty times for each combination of parameter values, and the average and variance of resource remaining were computed. This metric best captures our concern with the sustainability of resource extraction. 3 Each model run was composed of 625 household agents and was run for 600 time steps (i.e. 50 years). Initialization of a model run involved creating and placing household agents on a grid (25 x 25), with one household agent per cell. Households varied in size, with an average size of 4.75 based on rural household survey data (Misra et al. 1988). After all households were created, they established a social network that remained stable for the entire model run. In each time step, resource grows and the formal institution tells each household its prescribed maximum extraction level. Each household uses its social network to determine the current norm for extraction, combining that information with the prescribed level from the instution to calculate utilities for candidate levels of extraction as described earlier. Each household selects the candidate extraction level with maximum utility and extracts that amount from the forest (or as much as is remaining above the mimimum forest resource level). The forest remaining and other measures are recorded after all households have had a chance to extract resource. The formal institution re-calculates sustainable extraction levels every 12 steps (once a year). Agents are activated asynchronously, in a different random order each step. (c=0.5;l=nr=0.25). We varied the proportion of the population composed of high consumers from 0% to 100%, for each of the values of r used in the Experiment 1. The landscape was divided into two sections with one sub-population on each side of a single shared boundary. Experiment 3: Network Structure. In the Experiments 1 and 2, interaction among agents was constrained to the spatially adjacent neighbors of each household (p=0). For this experiment, we replaced social interaction network connections to adjacent households with connections that extended beyond immediate neighbors as described earlier. The objective was to examine how different social network structures affected the dissemination of information and the formation of norms that, along with institutional rules, influence aggregate fuelwood extraction behavior. We implemented this experiment by varying the parameter p from 0 (only adjacent neighbors) to 1 (only randomly selected neighbors). Experiment 4: Agents with high weight on rules. In Experiments 1,2 and 3 all households within a model run were given the same value for the r, the weight placed on adhering to institutional rules (versus the weight on norms, 1-r). To evaluate the degree to which a small number of agents with a high r might be able to influence norms sufficiently to yield desirable resource outcomes, we created two groups with different levels of r: (1) ‘rule adherents’ weight rules much higher than norms (r=0.9); and (2) ‘norm adherents’ have the opposite weights (r=0.1). In this experiment, we varied the relative proportion of rule adherents (0% to 100%) and the network structure parameter (p, from 0 to 1). Like Experiment 1, household agents’ preference weights were c=l=nb=0.33. Experiment 1: Weight on rules versus norms. In this experiment we tested the effects of altering the weight agents place on adherence to rules over norms. We performed this experiment to test whether the amount of forest remaining would increase as the population placed greater emphasis on adhering to rules set by the formal institution. Increasing the importance of rules in our model can be interpreted as an increasingly good reputation of the formal institution among the population of agents, or increasingly strict enforcement or sanctions that make rule non-compliance more costly to the agents. We set up a series of cases where the weight the on rules (r in Equation 2) of all agents was varied from 0.0 (no attention to rules, complete attention to norms) to 1.0 (complete attention to rules, no attention to norms). For this experiment, agents were each given preference weights of c=l=Gr=0.33 (Equation 1) and social networks composed of their spatially adjacent neighbors (p=0). Experiment 2: Agents with high preference for consumption. In the second experiment, we evaluated how households with higher preference for consumption altered the affects of varying the weight, r, on adhering to institutional rules versus social norms on the resource outcome. The households were divided into two groups: (1) households with equal preferences for consumption, leisure and adherence (equal alpha values) as in Experiment 1, and (2) a group of “high consumer” <footnote> agents which had weight on consumption that was twice that placed on leisure and adherence to rules or norms 3 Other metrics such as the distribution of agent consumption levels, and XXXX were also examined, and were found to correlate strongly with the amount of forest remaining at the end of the simulation. 4 Experiment 1: Weight on rules versus norms. Altering the level of rule adherence (r) among agents in the different model runs resulted in a non-linear response of the amount of forest remaining (the 0% line in Fig. 2). At very low values of r much of the forest was consumed. However, at low to medium levels (i.e. 0.2 to 0.4) households dramatically altered their extraction behavior, which led to much higher levels of forest resources remaining. Experiment 2: Agents with high preferences for consumption. When we repeated Experiment 1 but with a population of agents that had a greater preference for consumption, we found that, not only did it take a much higher weight on rule adherence over norms (r) to achieve nearly the same level of remaining forest (the 100% line in Fig. 2), but the effect was damped both in the rate at which it altered agent behavior and the amount of forest remaining. Including a mix of agents from the two subpopulations (i.e. agents with high versus moderate preference for consumption) produced moderate responses of forest remaining to varying levels of r (Fig. 2). For all proportions of agents preferring higher levels of consumption, low values of r resulted in the lowest levels of forest remaining. Increasing the proportion decreased the amount of forest remaining and flattened the non-linear response to r. As the proportion of agents with higher weight on consumption increased, agents needed to place increasing weight on rules (higher r) before improvements in forest resources were realized. greater than or equal to 0.5, the network structure had little effect on forest remaining. In these cases the strong influence of r overwhelmed the effects of having some agents with high preference for consumption. There is no further effect of increasing p beyond p=0.5 to produce a completely mixed network (p = 1.0), which means that a small number of long-range interactions in the network can have a large effect on propagation of information – consistent with findings in network theory (<citation>Watts and Strogatz, 1998). 200% 200% a. WR1=WR2=0.2 150% b. WR1=WR2=0.3 150% p = 0.0 p = 0.5 p = 1.0 100% % Forest Remaining Results 100% 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% 200% 25% 50% 75% 100% 200% d. WR1=WR2=0.5 c. WR1=WR2=0.4 150% 150% 100% 100% 50% 50% 0% % Consumerists 0% 100% 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% % Consumerists Fig. 3. Results from Experiment 3 illustrate the fffect on forest remaining of network structure (p), weight placed on rules (r1=r2) and the relative number of agents with high preference for consumption. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. The weight on rule adherence is the same for both subpopulations with different preferences for consumption (r1 = r2) for each r value: (a)r1 = r2 = 0.2 (b) r1 = r2 = 0.3 (c) r1 = r2 = 0.4 (d) r1 = r2 = 0.5. Fig. 2. Results from Experiments 1 and 2 show the effect on forest remaining of changing the weight placed on rules and the relative number of agents with a high preference for consumption. Error bars represent 95% C.I. Experiment 3: Network Structure. By altering the social network structure between agents, we explored how the dissemination of information on agents’ behaviors through different social networks altered the affects of weight on rules (r) and the number of agents with higher preference for consumption (Fig. 3). In particular, for r values of 0.3 to 0.4, increasing p produced non-linearreductions in the amount of forest remaining with respect to the proportion of agents with a high preference for consumption. Strong declines in forest remaining when 25% of agent populations had high preference for consumption suggests that as social mixing increases, a smaller number of agents preferring consumption are required to create a high-consumption norm. Additionally, when values of r were less than or equal to 0.2 or Experiment 4: Agents with high weight on rules. When we increased the proportion of rule adherents (high r) in the population the model produced a near-linear increase in forest remaining outcomes when agents social network consists only of adject households (Figure 4, p=0). As we altered the network parameter p from a highly clustered network (p = 0) to a randpmly connected network (p = 1), the amount of forest remaining increased, for all proportions of rule adherents less than one. At moderate levels of social mixing (p = 0.25), strong non-linearity in relative outcomes of forest remaining were evident. In particular, small numbers of rule adherents made large differences when household networks had a small number of distant non-adjacent connections. The effect of additional rule adherents tapered off strikingly beyond 20%. These results were achieved despite rule adherents not having a special place in the network (such as a higher degree of connections). This is consistent with the explanation for the effect of social mixing advanced above, i.e., a small number of long range connections enables information to propogate rapidly across a population. 5 to a sustainable level) may have the side-effect of “re-framing” how the agents see their preferences, such that they increase the weight they put on self-interest (Bpwles, Cardenaas etal). Fig. 4. Results from Experiment 4 illustrate the effect on forest remaining of relative number of rule adherents and network structure. Error bars represent 95% C.I. Discussion Formal resource-management institutions have a number of mechanisms at their disposal by which they can affect the outcomes of collective resource use and encourage more sustainable levels of use. These include communication of rules and their rationales and the nature of rule enforcement, sanctions, and adjudication. Because these activities are carried out in the context of systems of social interaction through information networks that generate norms for behavior, understanding the effects on resource outcomes of the choices a formal institution makes can be challenging. Although we can make no claims on quantitative magnitude of these effects in specific cases, our model reveals, qualitatively, the effects that household preferences, social interactions and norm formation can have on the effectiveness of an institution’s activities. The results of Experiment 1 suggest that, when households in a community have a homogenous level of preference for adhering to the rules pronounced by a formal institution, the goal of which is to maintain sustainable harvesting levels, the level of resource use decreases and remaining resource amount increases, non-linearly with increases in that preference. This non-linearity is governed by the process of norm formation in the community, which we modeled through households seeking to match the level of extraction of their neighbors. Low levels of preference for adhering to rules in our model might be interpreted as representing low levels of (a) trust in the institution, (b) communication from the institution, (c) enforcement of rules, or (d) sanctions for violating rules. In such cases, decision making of households is more strongly influenced by the behavior of their neighbors and by the utility households derive by balancing consumption and leisure. Small increases in preference for rule adherence achieve little to decrease consumption, until a tipping point in that preference is reached, such that the norms of the community are influenced by the rules issued by the institution. Resource-management institutions governing common-pool resources, therefore, should seek levels of investment in communication, enforcement, sanctions, and/or adjudication that are sufficient to influence the norms of a community and tip the behavior toward those desired by the institution. The good news is that once there is sufficient interest in rule adherence to affect the process of norm formation, little additional effort may be required to achieve a level of resource use that is consistent with the goals of the institution. A possible confounding factor is the degree to which agents preferences change in response to actions of formal institutions. For example, the imposition of institutional rules and associated sanctions to promote behavior in the group interest (ie., reduce extraction levels Our initial experiment was predicated on two key assumptions. The first was a homogeneous population, in terms of the importance households place on various contributors to their utility (i.e., consumption, leisure, and adherence to rules or norms) and the relative importance of adherence to norms versus rules. The second assumption was that there were no long-range ties within the agents’ social networks. In Experiment 2, we relaxed the first assumption to form two groups, one group with balanced preferences for consumption, leisure, and adherence to rules or norms and a second with greater preference for consumption, and found that as the number of agents preferring consumption increased, the effectiveness of institutional rules decreased essentially linearly. This decreased effectiveness was evidenced by a decline in the amount of resources remaining, regardless of the level of perference for following rules versus norms. Additionally, the preference for following rules (r) vs norms required to achieve a tipping point, where norms shifted towards more sustainable behavior, was higher (Fig. 2). These results suggest that some understanding of the diversity and types of preferences in a community is, therefore, necessary for institutions to identify a level effort that is likely to be successful. The results of Experiment 3, which evaluated the importance of longrange ties in the social network that influences the formation of social norms, indicate that, at moderate levels of rule adherence (0.2 < r < 0.5), the presence of long-range ties results in a non-linear relationship between the number of households preferring consumption and forest condition. At these moderate levels of preferences for adhering to rules, a reasonably small number of households with greater preference for consumption can produce a relatively large decline in the forest outcome, as these preferences have a greater influence on norms throughout the community because the social networks result in short path lengths between all agents. This effect of network structure enhances the sensitivity of the response of resource outcomes to rule adherence at just the levels of rule adherence of most interest to the institution, i.e., in the range of effort levels near the tipping point from little to great influence on outcome. The results of Experiment 2 indicate that a small group of households with a preference for consumption can reduce the effectiveness of efforts by an institution to reduce resource consumption, through the influence on norms. The results of experiment 4 show how a small group of households with a strong interest in adhering to the rules of the institution, over norms, can have a strong positive influence on the community’s tendency to behave in ways consistent with those rules. The results of Experiment 4 indicate that (a) as the number of such rule adherents increases, the amount of resource remaining also increases and (b) as the agents’ social networks include more long-range ties, a smaller number of rule adherents is needed to reduce extraction levels and so achieve a high-level of resource remaining. Although a formal institution may have little influence on the structure of the social network itself, these results suggest that resource-management institutions might be able to use the process of norm formation to enhance the effectiveness of their rules by enhancing the commitment of a fraction of the community to adhering to rules. Such commitments might be secured through greater participation in the institution within the community. In any case, these results suggest that knowing the structure of the social networks in a community can be useful for designing effective policies. 6 Conclusions References Adhikari, B., S. D. Falco, and J.C. Lovett (2004). "Household characteristics and forest dependency: evidence from common property forest management in Nepal." Ecological Economics 48(2): 245-257. Advisory Board on Energy (ABE) (1985). Government of India: Towards a Perspective on Energy Demand and Supply in India in 2004/2005. Government of India Press, Nasik. Baland, J. M., P. Bardhan, S. Das, D. Mookherjee, and R. Sarkar (2004). "The Environmental Impact of Poverty: Evidence from Firewood Collection in Rural Nepal,’." Commons in an Age of Global Transition: Challenges, Risks, and Opportunities. The Tenth Conference of the International Association for the Study of Common Property, August: 913. Bembridge, T. 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North (1990) Ostrom (1990) PNAS-99 (2002). Special Issue on ABM, Joe Sackler Colloqium, Irvine CA. Robinson, D. T., D. G. Brown, et al. (2007). "Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science." Journal of Land Use Science 2(1): 31-55. Uphoff and Buck, (2006) Watts, D. and Strogatz, S.H. Colletive dynamics on small-world networks. Nature 393: p440-442 (1998). Cardenas, J.C., Stranlund, J., and Willis, C. Local Environmental Control and Institutional Crowding out. World Development. 28 (10): 1719-1733 (2000). Bowles, S. Policies Designed for Self-Interested Citizens May Undermine “The Moral Sentiments”: Evidence from Economic Experiments. Science 320 (20 June): 1605-1609 (2008) Heltberg, R., T. C. Arndt, and N.U. Sekhar. (2000). "Fuelwood Consumption and Forest Degradation: A Household Model for Domestic Energy Substitution in Rural India." Land Economics 76(2): 213-232. Holland, J. H. (1995). Hidden order : how adaptation builds complexity. Reading, Mass., Addison-Wesley. Irfanullah, S. (2002). "Gujars in the Pakistani Hindu Kush-Himalayas: Conflicts and Dilemmas about Lifestyles and Forest Use." Nomadic Peoples 6(2): 99-110. Janssen, M. A. and E. Ostrom (2006). "Empirically Based, Agent-based models." Ecology and Society 11(2): 37. Jenkins, J. C., D. C. Chojnacky, et al. (2003). "National-Scale Biomass Estimators for United States Tree Species." Forest Science 49(1): 12-35. Kumar, S. K. and D. Hotchkiss (1988). Consequences of Deforestation for Women's Time Allocation, Agricultural Production, and Nutrition in Hill Areas of Nepal, Int Food Policy Res Inst. Misra, N. M., A. K. Mahendra, and M.Y. Ansari (1988). "Pilot survey of fuel consumption in rural areas - V." Indian Forester 114(2): 57-62. 7 Supporting documentation Fuelwood collection. Fuelwood and community forests are perceived as a free common pool resource for use by local households. Therefore, markets for fuelwood are non-existent in the study region and instead the cost of fuelwood is a function of collection or gathering time, which is typical for fuelwood and minor forest products in rural areas in India (Heltberg, Arndt et al. 2000). However, as households extract fuelwood resources they degrade the forest from the edge inward and are forced to spend more effort and time in subsequent fuelwood collections (Kumar and Hotchkiss 1988; Baland, Bardhan et al. 2004). We use a simplified approach to model time spent collecting fuelwood and assume that when fuelwood is abundant, a minimum of 2 hrs is required to make a single fuelwood gathering trip. However, gathering time increases exponentially as the resource is depleted (Fig. S1). The rate of increase in gathering time is a function of the initial and remaining size of the forest, proportion of the forest in branches, the population of the village, and average biomass per square meter. The average head-load carried by an adult individual in a single trip approximates 30 kg (Bembridge and Tarlton 1990, Irfanullah 2002, Adhikari et al. 2004). Since households must make several trips to satisfy their subsistence cooking requirements, we calculate the overall time allocated to fuelwood collection per month using the following equation: Gm Min xcmax d have g l where Gm is the gathering time per month, x is the extraction level of the household, cmax is the maximum consumption level of the household, have is the average head load per trip, d is the average density of oak and pine (600 kg·m-3), g is the gathering time for a single trip, and l is the total labor endowment that each household has. Fig. S1: Time spent for a single trip gathering fuelwood based on the available resource level. Average head-load carried by an adult - (i.e. 30 kg, Bembridge and Tarlton 1990, Irfanullah 2002, Adhikari et al. 2004) Fuelwood demands are particularly high in India due to the low energy density of fuelwood and the inefficient cooking devices with which it is used (Prasad and Verhaart, 1982). Fuelwood energy requirements for cooking range from 6-32 MJ per capita per day (Ravindranath and Ramakrishna 1997, Nayak et al. 1993). While the specific density, moisture, and calorific value of forest species vary, a general conversion factor (1 kg = 19.89 MJ – ABE 1985) can be used to calculate the corresponding range of per capita fuelwood requirements, 0.3-1.61 kg (6-32 MJ). The National Council of Applied Economic Research and the state calculated consumption values of 1.31 and 1.97 kg/capita/day, respectively (Pandey 2002). Similar measurements have been found at other areas of India (Nayak et al. 1993, Bhatt et al., Reddy 1981, Bhatt and Sachan 2004). Household Utility. In our model, household utility is a function of its desire for three goods (consumption, leisure, and adherence to institutional pressures) and a bounded set of resource extraction levels. The extraction level that maximizes a household’s utility is the level of resource depletion carried out by the household. To determine the 8 optimum extraction level for each time step, household agents randomly select 10 different levels of resource extraction and chose the level that maximizes the following utility function: ui C c l L ( n b) nb where ui is the utility for household i, c is the level of consumption, l is the amount of leisure, n is the influence of informal institutions, b is the influence of formal institutions on sustainability of the resource, and αc, αl, and αnb are the weights applied to consumption, leisure and institutional influence, respectively. The three overarching preference weights sum to one and ensure diminishing returns on consumption, leisure, and matching formal (i.e. sustainable) and informal (i.e. social norms) extraction level beliefs. The consumption component of a household’s utility is a decreasing function of their subsistence cooking requirements, a stochastic set of possible extraction levels, and the weight the household places on consumption versus leisure and institutional influence. Fig. S2: Consumption curves for different consumption preference weights (i.e. alpha values) and extraction levels. The subsistence cooking requirements for each household are calculated as a function of household size and per capita energy requirements: h e S i i c d where Si is the subsistence wood requirement (m3) for household i, hi is the size of household i, e is the per capita energy requirement for cooking per month (240 MJ), c is the energy content of wood (16 MJ, World Bank 2004), and d is the average density of oak and pine (600 kg·m-3). Since markets for fuelwood are largely non-existent in the locations we studied, the chief expense incurred by agents in fuelwood extraction is time - invariably, the cost of the leisure time that agents forsake to extract the resource. The leisure component is calculated based on the gathering time for fuelwood collection, the available amount of time devoted to labor, and the weight the household places on leisure versus consumption and institutional influence. The function takes the following form: L 1 Gm l 9 where L is the result of the leisure component ranged 0-1. A value of 0 for leisure means that the household spends no time in leisure, a value of 1 means the household spends all of its time in leisure. Gm is the time spent gathering fuelwood per month and l is the total labor endowment, which we set to 5 hrs per day per household. The last factor in the household agent’s utility function represents the type and level of adherence to institutional influence. Each household faces a trade-off regarding whether to match its extraction level to the network of households with which it shares information (i.e. social norms) or to match institution rules that define a sustainable level of extraction. We represent the outcome of matching social norms using the following equation: N nf 2 ( 1 x nnet ) where N is the value placed on social norms, nf is a ratio defining the households adherence to social norms versus institutional rules, x is the extraction level, and nnet is the mean extraction level of the eight household social network that the household gathers information from. Similarly, the outcome of matching institutional rules is calculated as follows: ( 1 nf ) [ 1 ( x sus)] 2 F where F is the value placed on institutional rules and sus is the sustainable extraction level recommended to the household by the institution. Both the social norm and institutional rule values are added together and weighted by the household’s preference for abiding by institutional influences versus its preference for consumption and leisure. (i.e. the preference weights placed on sustainability and social norms sum to one, following Mosler and Brucks 2003). ABM We created the ABM using the RePast simulation libraries (Collier 2000). Increasing levels of p mean that more of the interaction network is drawn at random, as opposed to being selected from the spatial neighborhood of the agent. The parameter is operationalized by having an agent draw a random number between 0-1 for each of the eight neighbors, and if that random number is smaller than p then the connection to that neighbor is swapped with a randomly selected household in the landscape. Forest The forest grows on average at a rate of 2.7% per year (0.14 kg · m-2· yr-1, Birdsey 1992). 10