O.F.I. Occasional Papers No. 53 Forest Certification and Genetically Engineered Trees: Will the two ever be compatible? Peter Coventry 2001 Based on dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the MSc course “Forestry and its Relation to Land Use” 1999-2000 ISBN: 0-85074-155-6 ISSN: 0269-5790 Oxford Forestry Institute Department of Plant Sciences South Parks Road Oxford OX1 3RB Tel: +44 (0) 1865 275000 Fax: +44 (0) 1865 275074 URL: http://www.plants.ox.ac.uk/ofi Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 Forest Certification and Genetically Engineered Trees: Will the two ever be compatible? Contents 1. Abstract 2 2. Introduction i. Intent ii. The rise of certification iii. The development of genetic modification iv. GM through certifications eyes v. What is a GMO? 3 3 6 7 8 The specific concerns of certification bodies i. Reduced diversity ii. Asexual transfer of genes iii. Herbicide resistance genes iv. Insect resistant GMOs v. Lignin modification vi. Transgene escape vii. Restricted access to advantages viii. Reduced biodiversity from sterile trees ix General concerns 10 12 12 14 17 19 23 24 26 Evaluating the risks i. Predictability and instability ii. Risk assessment 26 27 5. Conclusions 30 6. Table of acronyms 32 7. Acknowledgements 32 8. References 33 3. 4. 1 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 1. Abstract Forest certification has expanded rapidly over the past five years. It was developed to make use of the trade in forest products to promote and stimulate sustainable forest management, and recognised that certification would have to offer commercial advantages to be taken up by trading enterprises. Paralleling this expansion, the application of genetic modifications has been heralded as a great tool in progress towards improved ecological management, alleviating poverty in developing countries (Nuffield Council on Bioethics 1999) and offering financial benefits to industry. However, one of the most prominent certification bodies, the Forest Stewardship Council, has barred the use of genetic modification (GM) in the forests that it certifies. GM has caused concern amongst many environmental organisations, which fear irresponsible applications of such a powerful technology and the ‘unnatural’ alteration of an organism’s genetic code (Greenpeace 2000; Soil Association 2000; Owusu 1999). Yet the potential benefits to humanity are enormous, and many scientists cannot understand the desire for an outright ban on useful modifications (Strauss 2000a). Herein lies what many perceive as the fundamental crux of the debate; in evaluating the risks of genetic modification we must unravel a complex set of scientific, practical, ethical, philosophical and anthropogenic interactions using weighted judgement. This weighted judgement is a personal issue drawing on an individuals beliefs. Deciding upon a procedure that accommodates all stakeholders opinion is very difficult. Moreover, since each application of GM is different, a polarised acceptance or rejection is impossible. The issue is not black or white; each transgenic trait is a shade of grey. The issues discussed in this paper illustrate that GM has potential benefits and risks, and that these are not restricted to GM per se, but are applicable to ‘conventional’ breeding technologies and existing forestry practices, many of which are readily certified. Ideally each gene modification should be examined in isolation and against equivalent certification procedures. This would necessitate a more explicit risk / benefit assessment, rather than a politicised, unconditional ban on a potentially beneficial technology. However, the lack of precise information surrounding the risks of GM will make this difficult, because it leads to subjective judgements based on personal beliefs. More field testing of genetically modified trees will aid in making decisions surrounding their use. GM is still in its infancy and there are legitimate concerns. Yet it would be very shortsighted to automatically exclude GM from certification programmes and loose the concomitant benefits of this technology. In the next 5 to 10 years plantations of transgenic trees will start appearing, most probably in developing countries with liberal forest legislation. Certification bodies have the potential to ensure these plantations conform to high standards. Certifiers, particularly the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) with its eco-credibility and global perspective, can play a pivotal role in imposing realistic criteria for GM tree certification. 2 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 However, the politics surrounding FSC certification are not welcoming to GM. For the foreseeable future, companies pursuing GM are likely to only undertake ISO and regional certification, and monitor the position of the FSC. Certification has the potential to endorse the rational appraisal of genetic modification and its concomitant benefits to the environment. Banning GM may defer the ecological benefits trangenics have to offer, or worse, marginalise GM plantations to regions where legislation and monitoring enable irresponsible use of GM trees. 2. Introduction 2.i. Intent This paper will address the question of whether there will ever be the certification of forests that contain genetically modified (GM) trees. This chapter, chapter two, reviews the origin and range of both certification systems and genetic modification (GM) applications, and defines a genetically modified organism (GMO). The third chapter will focuses on the aspects of GM that certification schemes, and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) in particular, find problematical. It doing so it will consider how the different certification schemes have addressed comparable issues to those raised surrounding GM trees. This includes the conservation of genetic resources, use of exotic species and application of chemicals. Chapter four briefly reviews the inherently different perceptions of GM by the various stakeholders, and the role this plays in risk evaluation. Lastly, chapter five concludes with consideration of the politics and business surrounding GM and certification, and reflects upon their greater role in determining whether forest certification and genetically engineered trees will ever be compatible. 2.ii. The rise of certification International responses to deforestation have been vociferously criticised by many NGOs1. These reproaches centre on the perception that there has been a slow implementation of inadequate forest conservation agreements. Furthermore, these agreements themselves do not commit participants to agreement implementation. These deficiencies have been recognised for some time; an FAO report on TFAP noted an “inadequate regard for local peoples, ecological matters and the underlying causes of deforestation” and recommended “avoid bureaucratic suffocation and encourage effective leadership” (Ullsten et al. 1990). The ITTO has been consistently criticised as unrepresentative with ineffective environmental concern and poor management, ignoring their prescribed objectives, such as Target 2000 (Colchester 1990; FoE 1992). Moreover, the impasse between ‘North and South’ has, in the eyes of many NGOs, lead to painfully slow progress since the UNCED 1992 summit; many countries have yet to ratify agreements, and international initiatives (IPF, IFF, ITFF and UNFF) established to further UNCED work, have made slow progress (Humphries 2000). However, from these processes, SFM emerged as a new framework. It aims to describe management that ensures long-term forest health and productivity, while 1 N.B. A table listing all acronyms is given on page 32. 3 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 providing continued social and economic benefits (Evans 1996). In 1988, the ITTO noted that only 0.08% of tropical forests were managed in this manner (Poore 1989). Although endorsed in principle, SFM is not well understood in operational terms. Currently, principles, criteria, and indicators are being developed as a means to assess and report on progress towards SFM. These have been developed largely through international agreements building on UNCED 1992; principally the Helsinki Process, the Montreal Process, the Tarapoto Proposal, a renegotiated ITTA and Dry-zone Africa (Grayson & Maynard 1997). It has been noted that deforestation continues apace, and legislative measures to curb unsustainable measures have largely failed due to international squabbles, general apathy and agreements that are non-binding (Dunleavy 1993). Further, the de jure appearances of legislation are seen to ignore the de facto realities of implementation at the forest level. A market-based mechanism of certification was considered as a means of circumventing these failings. Being site-specific, certification could validate ‘on-the-ground’ operations as employing the best management practices through criteria and indicators (Upton & Bass 1995). Consumers, using a labelling system attesting to this SFM, were to discriminate between different production methods. Those companies who were certified could gain many benefits, chiefly improvement / retention of market share, defence against environmental criticism, and investor assurance. This would drive the implementation of SFM in the wood product trade. Those who continued to practice and trade in uncertified products would have difficulty marketing their produce. Credibility was seen as a precondition for any successful certification scheme; independence and third party assessment were understood to be requisite (Upton & Bass 1995). Certification is a voluntary process, which results in a written statement attesting to the origin of wood raw material, and its status following validation by an independent third party (Ghazali & Simula 1994). Certification typically includes two main components: forest management certification and product certification. Forest management certification is based on an assessment of forest management against a set of standards reflecting contemporary concepts of sustainability. Product certification involves verifying the chain of custody of wood from the certified source to the consumer. This whole process has faced repeated criticism (Counsell 1996; Centero 1998). Nevertheless, governments and companies are examining certification with interest; it has become a “high profile subject in the forestry sector” (FAO 2000a). Despite the stated purpose of certification for improving forest management, the main interest of most of those undertaking certification at present is probably the marketing benefits it may offer. This may explain why over 80% of FSC-certified forests are in developed countries, and 66% are by industrial enterprises (Thornber 1999). However, in developing countries it is noted “certification serves as an added strength as it facilitates entry into foreign markets” (MTB 1999). Increasing numbers of certification schemes are being developed; international, national and regional, all can be split into two types. (1) The performance based approach, best represented by the FSC and some emerging national schemes (Indonesia, Malaysia and Finland), is founded on standards that 4 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 an organisation has to meet before it can be certified. This method has been criticised because, although certification is an incentive for forests that are already well managed, companies managing forests poorly may find adjusting their practices very difficult. Consequently they may simply ignore certification (von Maltitz 2000). (2) The process-based approach, which is the basis of the system adopted by ISO 14000 series of EMS verification, assesses the quality of an organisation's management process; how it sets its policy and management objectives, and how it organises itself to deliver them consistently. They do not lay down specific predetermined performance standards, but rather look for continuous improvement of environmental management. The ISO 14000 series, and in particular the forestryspecific 14061, ensure companies set increasingly higher standards and achieve them. This approach is criticised as a means of gaining certification by compliance with internal policy, whilst still being environmentally irresponsible. Moreover, ‘ring fencing’2 can give a misleading impression that ISO standards are applicable to the whole of a company. Lastly, since ISO places a great emphasis on achieving national standards, it could be argued it maintains the disparity in performances between countries, and consequently misleads consumers (von Maltitz 2000). Technically, ISO certify management systems and not forests, and as such they do not enable product ‘labelling’. It is probably for this reason that ISO implementation is greater in companies supplying predominantly to the pulp and paper sector, whilst companies supplying wood timber opt for performance-based systems, such as the FSC. For example, all SAPPI’s plantations in South Africa are ISO-certified, but only those supplying saw-logs are FSC-certified (von Maltitz 2000). This contrasts with nearby Mondi plantations, with over 430,000 ha of FSC-certified timber forest producing only saw-logs (FSC 2000e). ISO certification meets pulp and paper consumer demands, and thus serves as an adequate marketing tool. However, ISO has been used by a number of companies as a step towards gaining product certification (Bass & Simula 1999). Increasingly, process-based schemes are incorporating performance targets; correspondingly, performance-based schemes acknowledge the benefits of EMS (Kanowski et al. 2000). Many see the FSC and ISO approaches to certification working in tandem3, complimenting international and national policies to ensure SFM is implemented at all levels. There is little support for the idea of harmonisation of certification systems, but growing support for mutual recognition. For example, six certification systems, including SmartWood (US Rainforest Alliance) and Woodmark (UK Soil Association) are harmonised with the FSC, and their standards are mutually recognised. Prominent NGOs support the FSC process because they consider its standards to be the most stringent and open too little ‘interpretation’. These supporters are concerned ISO standards do not need to be applied to an entire organisation – companies can “ring fence” activities that are included or excluded from ISO. For example, SAPPI exclude long-haul transportation from their ISO implementation (von Maltitz 2000). Thus, the clarity of ISO has been questioned. 3 Because ISO emphasises EMS, it is seen as a powerful tool for achieving and maintaining FSC certification (von Maltitz 2000). 2 5 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 that mutual recognition should not diminish FSC standards. However, many advocates of alternative certification initiatives interpret this concern, rightly or wrongly, as an attempt to maintain the dominant role of the FSC in certification. Regionally-based systems are often espoused as better tailored to meet inherently different local circumstances, and commercial plantations perceive the FSC as bias towards natural forest management. However, the FSC has committed itself to collaboration with Malaysian and Indonesian certification initiatives, with the eventual objective that certification, by either party in those countries, might be recognised by both parties (FSC 1999d). 2.iii. The development of genetic modification (GM) Paralleling the rising concern over deforestation, much scientific and commercial attention has focused on improving the genetic stock of forest trees in order to improve productivity and quality. The demand for wood-based products is forecast to double over the next 17 years, the onus being on paper and board products (Soil Association 1998), which must be met from plantation-grown trees. GM and other biotechnology techniques have provided conventional tree breeders with new tools to meet this demand, enabling the accelerated modification of some forest trees possible (Dinus & Tuskan 1997). The potential gains are great, since trees remain genetically and phenotypically very similar to their wild progenitors (Wright 1976) and GM can progress more rapidly than conventional breeding, which can take decades. The first commercially interesting genes available to GM in forestry were those which were developed in agriculture, and thus involved the transfer of DNA between taxonomically distinct organisms. Traits currently being researched include herbicide resistance, increased vigour, pest and pathogen resistance, increased tolerance to biotic stress and improved timber quality (Riemenschneider et al. 1988; Bauer 1997; Dickson & Walker 1997; Tzfira et al. 1998). Recently, particularly in Europe, GM has been at the centre of a heated debate. This has concentrated on agricultural applications, but has occasionally touched forestry. The issues are enormously complex and not related to purely scientific questions: there are questions of philosophy, ethics, equity, responsibility and ownership. Most proponents have called for “credible information that promotes rational debate” ensuring the public can make an “informed evaluation” (Strauss et al. 2000b). Some of the media have also put forward what appears an assessment of potential benefits and risk (Weiss 2000). However, the media are usually criticised for hyperbole. In the UK, “pseudoscience” and “alarmist media reports” from pro- and anti-GM camps have confused matters and brought GM into the limelight (Nuffield Council on Bioethics 1999). Opinions are sometimes extreme. Some call for deregulation and accelerated introduction of GMOs for economic and environmental reasons (Cantley 1998), whilst many environmental groups are very wary of potential impacts, and consequently believe “genetically modified organisms must not be released into the environment” (Greenpeace 2000). The UK is an interesting case. The public generally perceive the attitudes of the large companies pursuing GM as irresponsible and principally profit driven. Furthermore, consumer confidence in food is very low following episodes of salmonella in chicken eggs, E. coli and BSE in beef, and the reprocessing of condemned poultry for human consumption. Coupled with extensive media coverage, these two factors have acted 6 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 synergistically, and the public are sceptical of the motivation behind, and safety surrounding, GM. On 11th July 1999, campaigners destroyed most of the trees in a research trial of GM poplars established by AstraZeneca. This action illustrated how strongly some people felt about the potential ecological impacts of GM. These impacts include gene flow, invasiveness and unpredictability (Owusu 1999). However, there are also potential ecological and economic benefits (Mathews & Campbell 2000). The advantages and disadvantages of GM trees have been considered by many (reviewed by Mullin & Bertrand 1998; Mathews & Campbell 2000), but as yet no GM trees are in commercial production. Big-business is regarded by many as an outright advocate of GM plants (Allen 1999). Conversely, the FSC and its allied certification schemes, advocating environmental campaigners concerns, have banned outright the use of all GM trees in the forests they certify (FSC 1997, 1999b, 2000a; Soil Association 1998). However, many scientists believe there is a middle-ground between these two views, and have noted “the opponents of the technology have framed the issue as black and white. GMOs are dangerous and must be stopped. Proponents are faced with the difficult task of trying to educate the public about the many shades of grey” (Somerville 2000). This has raised debate about the rationality behind a complete ban on GM trees, for “each GMO should be assessed on its own merits” (McHughen 2000, p.113). 2.iv. GM through certifications eyes Certification bodies can be placed in two groups; against GMOs and tolerant4 of GMOs. The first camp is centred solely on the FSC; Principal 6.8 of FSC guidelines states the “use of genetically modified organisms shall be prohibited” (FSC 2000a). This is reiterated in national standards; line 266 of the FSC Forest Management Standard the United Kingdom states simply insists “genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are not used” (FSC 1999b), as does 6.5.11. of the Swedish FSC Standards (FSC 1997). Certification systems recognised as equivalent to the FSC, such as The Soil Associations’ Woodmark (section 5.610) also prohibit GMOs. For many large companies considering certification, the FSC is one of the international systems, largely due to its international scale5 and backing from influential NGOs such as WWF, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth. Although the FSC have yet to publish an official document qualifying their policy towards GM 6, supporting NGOs have disclosed their concerns (Owusu 1999) and some resolutely reject the use of GM plants7 (Greenpeace 2000). This is important because these NGOs are considered to hold substantial influence over FSC policy8. It is likely FSC policy will parallel much of their supporters’ concerns, both now and in the future. 4 It is important to note this group is tolerant of GMOs. They are not pro-GM. The debate around GM is often confused by assumptions of polarised opinions. Tolerance of GM is not necessarily support of GM. 5 17.7 million hectares on 15th August 2000.(www.fscoax.org/principal.htm). 6 Two unofficial documents are available: (1) a brief draft document defines a GMO and confirms deployment is against FSC policy (FSC 1999c) (2) a more comprehensive draft document outlines perceived threats from GM (FSC 1999a). 7 “genetically modified organisms must not be released into the environment ”. 8 For example, several members of WWF are members of the FSC board with voting or proxy rights (FSC 1999f). 7 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 The Soil Association published their policies regarding GM, and note that “it would be sensible to apply the precautionary principle and not release GMOs into the environment, at least till their long term impact has been determined” (Soil Association 1998). When discussing certification accreditation they state “this position will be kept under constant review but the evidence that is continuing to emerge confirms the need for prudence and reinforces the logic of adopting a precautionary principle in conjunction with a comprehensive programme of research and monitoring” (Soil Association 1998). Thus, if research and monitoring of GMOs satisfy certifiers’ concerns, GM and certification may be compatible, despite the current FSC stance regarding GM. The other certification camp is more varied. Although it claims not to be certification system, the SFI standard of the AF & PA has all the trappings of, and is considered by others to be, a certification system (Kiekens 2000; McKeand, pers. comm.). This U.S. programme is industry-lead and supported by a number of NGOs, although not nearly with the profile of those that back the FSC. However, the SFI program encompasses more than 26.8 million hectares (Patrick 2000), and by the end of 2001 AF & PA projects that 12.1 million hectares of member company forestlands will have been third-party certified (Pulp & Paper 2000). This compares with just 1.8 million hectares of US forest currently certified by the FSC (FSC 2000b). 4.1.2.1.6 of the SFI notes “program participants that utilise genetically improved seedlings, including those derived through biotechnology, will use sound scientific methods and follow appropriate federal and state regulations and other international protocols” (AF&PA 2000). The AF & PA SFI programme are not alone in this regard. The PEFC makes reference to maintaining the genetic integrity of forests, but the “PEFC system has no specific considerations towards Genetic Engineering” (Viliotis 2000, pers. comm.) and “GM tree products are not an issue which the PEFC has had to deal with” (Gunneberg 2000, pers. comm.). The ISO 14000 series contains guidelines on what must be contained within an EMS, but the forest managers decide the performance standards that must be met. Consequently, ISO would regard GM as an extension of breeding technique, and establishes no caveat on GM. The CSA and LEI also have no specific regard for GM technology, other than compliance with national laws. 2.v. What is a GMO? We lack a precise and common definition of a GMO. The FSC adopted a definition that combined principals outlined in EC Directive 90/220 with the UK Government Health and Safety Executive publication on Contained Use of GMOs (EU 1990, UKGovernment 1996). This indicated a “Genetically modified organism (GMO) means an organism in which the genetic material has been altered in a way that does not occur naturally by mating and/or natural recombination or both9” (FSC 1999a). This definition encompasses DNA introduction via living vector systems, such as Agrobacterium tumefaciens used with poplars and eucalyptus (Griffin 1996), and mechanical DNA introduction methods, such as biolistics, used with Pinus radiata (Sederoff & Stomp 1993). Moreover, ‘unnatural’10 cell fusion and hybridisation 9 Interestingly, this definition would include graft-hybrids as GMOs. Including “in-vitro fertilisation, conjugation, transduction, transformation or any other natural process, polyploidy induction, mutagenesis, cell fusion (including protoplast fusion) of plant cells where the resultant organism can also be produced by traditional breeding methods” (FSC 2000b). 10 8 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 techniques would be classified as GM. All other technologies were considered permissible. The continuum and complexity of different breeding technologies makes distinguishing between ‘traditional’ breeding from genetic modification very difficult. Humankind has been genetically altering crops for millennia (Diamond 1997). This has resulted in varieties almost unrecognisable from their wild progenitors, and these changes may be very rapid. For example, the apical dominance of maize (Zea mays spp. mays) makes today’s cultivars strikingly different to their wild progenitor, teosinte (Z. mays spp. parviglumis). This change results largely from alteration of the regulator sequence of the teosinte branched1 (tb1) gene (Doebley et al. 1997). The remainder of the tb1 gene is identical in both maize and teosinte (Wang et al. 1999). Moreover, the distinction between breeding systems may be inconsistent with the FSC’s stated concerns over GM (FSC 1999a). For example, herbicide resistant plants have been derived both ‘conventionally’ and through GM (Concar 1999). The potential risks of gene flow and enhanced weediness from such cultivars are considered to be very similar to GM cultivars. Indeed, some accepted methods may be riskier than GM. For example, the FSC notes specifically that mutagenesis is permitted (FSC 1999a), a process that involves exposing cells to ultraviolet light, radiation or some of the “most poisonous chemicals known to humanity” (McHughen 2000, p.65). The genetic changes this induces are usually not understood. GM has knowledge of exactly which genes have been introduced, and how they function (MacKay et al. 1999). Leading research panels have concluded that the genes and traits must be examined, rather than the method of genetic modification (National Academy of Sciences 1987; National Research Council 2000). This dichotomy between anti-GM and pro-GM camps reflects an underlying philosophical concept, ‘natural’ and ‘unnatural’11, and it is crucial to understanding the debate about biotechnology (Kershen 2000). The label applied to a product depends on the ‘view’ of the concept of ‘natural’. One influence on this view may be the FSC themselves, yet other possible influences include the views of those who lobby the FSC. It must be remembered that certification is a marketing exercise to help promote SFM, and the FSC must create a brand, a label, respected by the consumer. The consumer must believe that certification testifies to sustainable forest management. Thus, the view of ‘natural’ is imperative. If the FSC feels more akin to environmental groups or more politically influenced by these groups or a ‘green’ public, the FSC may endorse the ‘nature’ view with concomitant consequences for regulatory policy; GM will not be certified since it is an ‘unnatural’ artefact of man’s activity. It is this philosophical divide which is paramount in the debate surrounding genetic modification12. GM is viewed by many ‘environmentalists’ and members of the public as intrinsically different from other advanced breeding techniques, including mutagenesis, embryo rescue, somaclonal variation and cell selection. This may reside This position, between ‘natural’ and ‘unnatural’, ‘cultivated’ and ‘wild’, ‘native’ and ‘introduced’, has a long history and has often followed fashions. 12 Other reasons do include the involvement of multinationals that have created highly centralised supply chains; the assumption that GM plants are acceptable and that there is no choice; and the Aristotelian concept, held by much of the public, that species have a fixed identity. 11 9 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 in the ability to insert genes from taxonomically distinct species13. It is not entirely rational, since many crosses between plants of the same species involve plants grown so geographically dispersed that they would never mingle DNA without human intervention. However, the ecological impact of producing hybids and intoducing exotic species are cited by some as a case for the possible environmental impact of GMOs (Owusu 1999). The need for objective evidence is required by both sides of the debate, and substantive equivalence should be invoked when considering how valid the concerns surrounding GM are. Even the impact assessment of the risks of GM is fraught with philosophical arguments. As noted by Apel (2000), it is necessary to focus on those factors relevant to an objective risk assessment, based on scientific reasoning. However, it is not clear how this might be accomplished in practice. 3. The specific concerns of certification bodies The FSC are the only forest certification body to have banned the use14 of GM trees in the forests that they certify (FSC 2000a). This ban was imposed due to concerns about the environmental safety of GMOs. The concerns have been published in an unofficial document (FSC 1999a), and most are identical to concerns expressed by environmental NGOs (Soil Association 1998; Owusu 1999; Greenpeace 2000). The following chapter focuses on the FSCs stated concerns about GMOs, and considers each issue by discussing equivalent practices examined by the FSC. Where appropriate other certification systems are considered. 3.i. Reduced ‘diversity’15 GM technology is likely to be employed by fine-tuning genera and species already adapted to a site and which can be mass propagated for direct use in plantations (Griffin 1996). This has caused concern within the FSC: “Plantations using one or few transgenic clones will contain less landscape-level diversity than is currently found in plantations using species or varieties resulting from traditional treebreeding” (FSC 1999a). Yet this misgiving is not restricted to GM per se. Clonal forestry is already well established for Eucalyptus and Pinus radiata, and has been performed with Populus species for over one hundred years (Muhs 1993). The risk of reduced diversity is equally applicable in any clonal plantation. Diversity requirements should be established regardless of whether a tree is GM, clonal or exotic; certification standards recognise this. PEFC guidelines16 for Forest Management Practices aim to maintain and ‘appropriately’ enhance (PEFC 1998). What exactly is meant by genetic diversity is not made clear in this document. Furthermore, these guidelines expounded very little at a national level (PEFC 1999). For example, specific targets of genetic diversity are 13 Although traditional hybridisational also acheives this. The FSC has also banned the research of GM trees in the forests it certifies (FSC 1999a). 15 Concerns have been raised about all levels of diversity - landscape, community, species, and population. 16 2.2a, 4.1a, 4.2a, and 4.2b (PEFC 1998). 14 10 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 not set other than for natural regeneration. The SFI system is even more vague, and does not set out criteria for maintaining or enhancing genetic diversity (AF&PA 2000). In contrast, the FSC is specific: “Diversity in the composition of plantations is preferred, so as to enhance the economic, ecological and social stability. Such diversity may include the size and spatial distribution of management units within the landscape, number and genetic composition of species, age classes & structure” (10.3, FSC 2000a). At a national level, the FSC sets detailed targets for the minimum species diversity in any plantation. For example, line 365 of FSC UK guidelines (UKWAS 2000a) limits the proportions of different species within a wood. A maximum of 65% of the wood may be of a primary species, and only 75% of the wood may be composed of one species if it is the sole species suited to the site and the owners’ objectives. The remainder of the wood must be a certain combination of native broadleaves, open space, secondary species or areas actively managed for biodiversity. However, this has resulted in oak (Quercus robur and Q. petrea) coppices in Wales, S.W. England and the Wyre Midlands having to be diversified despite being the result of decades of traditional management (Simon Pryor, pers. comm.). Similarly, in Germany, forests that are considered models of excellent SFM cannot gain FSC certification because beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates the canopy, just as it would under natural conditions (Hans-Albrect Wiehler, pers. comm.). Critics of such an arbitrary figure are justified; no account of the natural forest composition is made. Moreover, multiple species composition is not always correlated with diverse flora and fauna – woods with a high proportion of English oak (Q. robur) will have much greater biodiversity than a dense plantation of mixed exotic conifers (Peterken 1992). Each situation should be examined on its own merits. FSC UK guidelines, line 365, was recently clarified for a clonal poplar system. “The fact that a primary species comprises two or more different clones, varieties, provenances or origins does not alter the requirement for there to be no more than 65% (or 75%) of a species” (UKWAS 2000a). Yet it has been noted that these guidelines could be stretched, permitting a single poplar clone to comprise 65% of the forest (Simon Pryor, pers. comm.). Interestingly, this FSC UK standard is contrary to some other FSC national criteria. For example, FSC Sweden criteria 6.5.11 notes “cloned material is not to be used on a large scale pending an environmental impact assessment”. It is likely this criteria has been established for FSC Sweden because Swedish (and German) government regulations prohibit the use of monoclonal plantations17 (Zobel 1993) unless they are arranged in a way that simulates a seedling population (Rod Griffin, pers. comm.). It has also been noted that FSC certification could be awarded in plantations where diversification is merely planned, rather than after it has been achieved (Simon Pryor, pers. comm.). Indeed, the issue of ‘planned improvement’ has become very contentious and applies to other sectors of FSC certification: “...worryingly, many certificates appear to be awarded on the basis of hoped-for improvement in the management logging operations, rather than the actual good quality at the time of assessment” (Counsell 1999). If GM forests are to be certified they will have to meet 17 An exception is made for poplars since they have been grown monoclonally for over 100 years (Muhs 1993). 11 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 these existing FSC criteria. It is clearly likely that GM would pose no additional threat to forest diversity beyond that already associated with plantation forestry. 3.ii. Asexual transfer of genes Antibiotic resistance genes have been used extensively in the generation of GMOs. Resistance genes are incorporated in target plant genomes, along with the desired gene sequence conferring a specific trait, as a means of identifying that transfer has taken place. Such sequences are often referred to as selectable markers. This has caused some concern amongst the scientific and ‘environmental’ communities; “Asexual transfer of genes from GMOs with antibiotic resistance to pathogenic micro-organisms, and/or suppression of mycorrhizae and other micro-organisms, arising from the use of GMOs with antibiotic resistance” (FSC 1999a). The transfer of antibiotic resistance genes among prokaryotes is known to be common, although it may occur between bacteria and higher organisms (Istock 1991). For example, horizontal gene transfer is the most parsimonious explanation for the shared biochemical pathways of some microbes and plants (Strobel et al. 1994; Radmacher 1996). Moreover, gene homology has been found in Bradyrhizobium japonicum, and is probably the result of eukaryote to prokaryote gene transfer (Carlson & Chelm 1986). Host plant DNA has been found in the spores of the parasitic fungus Plasmodium brassicae in the laboratory, although whether this DNA is incorporated into the prokaryotic genome is not clear (Bryngelsson et al. 1988). The successful incorporation of DNA would require the recipient organism acquiring the transgenic trait, and then passing the gene to the population would depend of the fitness effects of the gene, subsequent selection pressures put on the gene, and the scale of gene flow to the recipient population. In all, there is a negligible likelihood of horizontal gene transfer but many potential mechanisms are proposed (James et al. 1998). If horizontal gene transfer were not so rare there would be extensive genetic similarities between plants and bacteria (Strauss 2000a). Indeed, spontaneous mutations giving rise to antibiotic resistant bacteria are several orders of magnitude more likely than asexual DNA transfer from GMOs (McHughen 2000, p.186). Although the potential effects of a possible transfer of antibiotic resistance may be very damaging, rational risk analysis on a case by case basis invariably finds it perfectly acceptable (Apel 2000). Antibiotic resistance genes are not a prerequisite for producing GMOs; many GMtrees are being produced using alternative in vitro selection systems, particularly by Nippon Paper (Ebinuma et al. 1997). If the selection sequences are benign, GMOs would not warrant any fears about the transmission of antibiotic resistance, and hence should satisfy this aspect of certification demands. 3.iii. Herbicide resistance genes The FSC has three concerns over the introduction of herbicide resistance genes18: increased weed resistance; increased herbicide usage; and transgene escape. FSC “Spread of herbicide resistance gene in sexual progeny to trees in environments where those trees are undesirable and where the target herbicide is used, and/or increased weed resistance to target herbicide, and/or increased use of target herbicide arising from use of GMOs with herbicide resistance” (FSC 1999a). (N.B. Although in the absence of gene flow increased weed resistance is a consequence of increased herbicide usage and this is a management problem, and not associated with GM technology. The risks always present themselves, even with non-GM material.) 18 12 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 concerns are paralleled by some environmental NGOs; Section 2.3 of a WWF report raises concerns about “augmenting the selection pressure on target weeds ... facilitating herbicide resistance in the long term” (Owusu 1999). The concerns are valid, since herbicide resistance in weeds has already been documented numerous times in ‘conventional’ agriculture (Shultz et al. 1990). Section 261 of the UK FSC standard notes “synthetic chemicals may be needed” (FSC 1999b). It also states that this section will be reviewed following the production of a DSS, developed under Section 5.2 of the analogous UKWAS certification system (FSC 1999b). The DSS is to aid in pest, weed and nutrient management decisions, and has yet to be published. However, a draft DSS document (UKWAS 2000b) is in circulation. It notes “guidance is based on the premise that pesticide usage should not be the automatic method of first choice for controlling pests and weeds; there are problems for which research and experience have so far failed to find non-chemical remedies that do not entail excessive cost or pose a greater environmental risk than pesticides." In other words, all options should be explored when dealing with a problem, and in some instances chemical methods are appropriate because they can be economically or ecologically advantageous. Continuing this argument, GM should be considered, for it may produce cheaper and more environmentally sound pest control (USDA 1999). The DSS gives guidelines about assessing which methodology, whether chemical or otherwise, to apply to potential problems. It outlines parameters such as cost, effectiveness, toxicity and impacts of different practices. It continues “If the use of a chemical is necessary and a choice is available, evaluate the risks of environmental damage”. Further, “...reference should be made to ‘Environmental Impacts’ which gives general information and a table to assist in choosing the material with the least impact”. Essentially, the DSS gives a permitted list of options, chemical or otherwise, and asks the forest manager to make a value judgement for best practice and damage limitation: “Users should decide ... using their professional judgement” and “determine the range of suitable pesticides, dose rates and application patterns from the tables and supplementary literature ... make an assessment on the likely effects of the pesticide using the table in this section”. Thus, each individual situation needs consideration in the field, from which an appropriate course of action can be taken. One could argue that in many instances GM fulfils DSS requirements, for the “aim should always be the minimum quantity of herbicide required to give the desired degree of control”. An ERS/NASS Agricultural Resource Management study (USDA 1999) on herbicide treatments on GM herbicide resistant cotton and soybean compared application rates to all other seed technologies, and found that 50% to 60% of spayed crops had significantly lower herbicide application at the 5% level (USDA 1999). Further USDA research has shown that between 1997 and 1998, U.S. national pesticide treatments were reduced by 6.2% and was accounted for by the introduction of Bt resistant crops (Fernandez-Cornejo et al. 2000). Reduced herbicide applications may also lessen the selective pressures on weeds. 13 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 The DSS report continues “herbicides that have low toxicity should be favoured” and “in many cases a carefully directed spray of broad spectrum product will be the most effective option and offer the least risk to non-target species”. These are often cited as pro-GM arguments. The introduction of a herbicide resistant transgene such as Roundup Ready® confers resistance to glyphosate, and has been considered as one of GMs greatest successes (Tzfira et al. 1998). The DSS states glyphosate (Roundup Pro Biactive®) is “not hazardous, not toxic to invertebrates, not harmful to aquatic life, and has low selectivity”. It is a safe, broad-spectrum herbicide, considered environmentally benign because it breaks down quickly into non-toxic end products. If used properly, a Roundup Ready® gene could lessen the environmental impact of weed control; over the top spraying becomes feasible (Dickson & Walker 1997), enabling post-emergence treatment when weeds are vulnerable (Rogers & Parkes 1995), and a reduction in herbicide usage because the “use of pre-emptive weed control is often more effective than dealing with greater problems later” (UKWAS 2000b). A recent study confirmed these benefits; Roundup Ready® agricultural crops enabled the substitution of most synthetic herbicides with glyphosate. “The herbicides that glyphosate replaces are 3.4 to 16.8 times more toxic .... and persist in the environment nearly twice as long” (Fernandez-Cornejo et al. 2000). Indeed, conventional weed treatments, such as tilling and mowing, can be very damaging to the environment. The DSS report notes that “Mowing is largely ineffective as a weed control measure” and “often needs to be repeated several times a year for many years”. Furthermore, “mowing creates a grassy weed flora that is harmful to trees” and “can result in soil compaction ... and pollution from exhausts and spillage of fuel and lubricants”. The reduced need for tillage control of weeds can lessen erosion (James et al. 1998). The FSC recognises that, under some conditions, herbicide use is warranted. Chemical use is a judgement made by the forest manager. If he or she justifies usage soundly, having considered all possible alternatives, then certification follows. This rationale could be extended to GM. There are many possible applications of transgenics. The specific trait and its proposed use should be examined, just as for other technologies. Furthermore, substantive equivalence should be cited; the DSS goes on to state “there are some situations in which complete removal of all other vegetation over the whole site may be considered”. Despite the fact that such a radical measure could have a significant effect on a site, it has been judged to be acceptable. It is highly unlikely that GM would result in removal of all other vegetation from a site, yet it has not been judged to be acceptable. 3.iv. Insect resistant GMOs The FSC consider a potential hazard of GM trees to include “increased resistance of target insect pests, and/or deleterious effects on natural enemies of the target insects, and/or deleterious effects on insects such as butterflies, pollinators, soil microbes, arising from the use of GMOs with insect resistance” (FSC 1999a). These concerns are thought to stem largely from U.S. studies on the effects of GM-corn modified with Bt19 transgenes. Two studies have reported negative impacts of Bt toxins on the 19 Bt is strictly the species Bacillus thuringiensis. However, Bt also refers to an insecticidal toxin produced by this bacterium. There are many strains of Bt, and each produces a unique toxin; some toxins are species-specific, other toxins are more general, and are produced by the whole genus. 14 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus; Losley (1999) and Hanson & Obrycki (2000). These papers have since been criticised as unscientific or taken out of context by the media (Shears & Sheldon 2000), but have generated public apprehensions. Other concerns are voiced by NGOs; Section 2.4 of a WWF report considers insect pesticide resistance, noting “Bt crops will augment the selection pressure placed on target pests and this will inevitably lead to an increased frequency on Bt-resistance genes within the insect’s gene pool” (Owusu 1999). Such misgivings over continual plant insecticide production are valid. Bt sprays have been used for decades in conventional and organic agriculture, and are considered “a safe and effective bio-pesticide” (Greenpeace 2000), despite scientific research questioning the safety of Bt spays (Swadener 1994). For forestry operations in the US and Canada, Bt is often the only insecticide that is sanctioned. It has also been widely used in Europe; in Spain Bt is frequently applied against gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (Speight & Wainhouse 1989). However, the continued exposure of pests to Bt toxins has selected for many resistant insects (Tabashnik et al. 1990; Talekar & Shelton 1993; Tabashnik 1994; Bauer 1997; Tang et al. 1997; Speight et al. 1999). Such resistance is thought to have developed through continued exposure to sprays on non-transgenic crops, and where these sprays have persisted in the soil following application (Saxena et al. 1999). Despite ten years of proven insect resistance in the field, Bt sprays remain on the market and are an acceptable practice under rigorous ‘organic’ guidelines (EU 1991). This may lie in the perception that Bt is a ‘natural’ product, produced by bacteria. In fact, Bt is not an obligate pathogen. Vegetative cells can be induced to sporulate and produce a crystal containing toxic proteins ( endo-toxins) when they are grown in sub-optimal regimes in fermentation chambers (Speight & Wainhouse 1989). The FSC has misgivings over the use of transgenically introduced Bt toxin, despite studies showing that Bt transgenic plants can often provide a pesticide delivery system that manages insect resistance better than pesticide delivered through Bt sprays (Roush, 1994). Whilst it is undecided if pest control using spray Bt as a whole bacterium is dangerous (Swadener 1994), it may be safer to use Bt transgenes incorporated by GM, and so reduce the probability of gene transfer between bacterium (Helgason et al. 2000). Concern about the “build up of resistance to natural biological controls or the chemicals used to control them” (Soil Association 1998) is legitimate and of considerable importance. Pests acquiring resistance from elevated exposure to selective controls could be problematic for future generations. Insect resistance to Bt will eventually develop, GM or no GM, because Bt sprays have been used extensively by organic farmers since the 1950’s (McHughen 2000). The same is true of chemical pesticides, used by conventional farmers for decades. In fact, given that the precision of delivery is increased with GM, there may be a lower likelihood of the development of insect resistance to Bt toxin with GM crops, especially if refugia of non-GM trees are used (Roush 1994). However, “Bt crops” refers to GM plants containing the gene sequence for producing insecticidal Bt toxin. 15 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 The use of many chemicals is permitted under UKWAS, and thus FSC, guidelines (UKWAS 2000b). Some have potentially severe impacts, and it is these chemicals with which GM must be compared against. For example, permethrin is used for the control of Hylobius abietis, a weevil that can devastate restocked stands (UKWAS 2000b). Described as “low selectivity, extremely dangerous to aquatic life, dangerous to invertebrates and toxic to bees (do not apply when flowering vegetation present).” It “may damage non-target vegetation”, and has been “identified as a potential endocrine disrupting chemical by IEH (UK Institute for Environmental Health) and EA (Environment Agency)” (UKWAS 2000b). Yet under UKWAS and UK FSC standards, use of permethrin is acceptable. This practice is contrary to FSC International standards (FSC 2000a), a position expounded by the Swedish FSC standard: “substances, including chemical pesticides and herbicides in the Chemicals Inspectorate’s class 1 & 2 that are harmful to the environment & health shall not be used for the treatment of forest land. Permethrin treatment is currently exempted (until and including 1999)” (FSC 1997). Why would an exception be made for a chemical that otherwise contravenes FSC standards. It is the only means of controlling a potentially devastating pest. Other chemicals e.g. granular carbosulfan, and remedial options, e.g. weevil guards, are feasible but are more expensive20. Moreover, “plants may require additional treatment(s) after planting, especially if small plant sizes are used” (UKWAS 2000b). Permethrin is certainly the cheapest, most commonly utilised and widely vocated practice. It may deemed acceptable because it has been used for years. GM could conceivably provide a more ‘ecologically friendly’ alternative. Bt toxins are very specific insecticides, and target only susceptible species (Raffa et al. 1997; Speight & Wylie 200l). A Bt toxin specific to H. abietis could be inserted into the plant, just as has been done in Populus against the beetle Chrysomela tremulae (Moffat 1996). This would target only the pest, and possibly closely related species, which both predated the plant; a very precise application of insecticide. In contrast with the current practice of using permethrin, such an application of GM may be justified under DSS guidelines: “the use of selective pesticides may offer less impact than some non-chemical methods that are not species specific” (UKWAS 2000b). Although not taking a specifically GM stance, 5.2.b of the PEFC standards states “inappropriate use of chemicals or other harmful substances or inappropriate silvicultural practices influencing water quality in any way should be avoided” (PEFC 1998). 6.3.3 of Annex 2 of PEFC Sweden is more succinct: “the use of chemical treatment is minimised and only used when other suitable methods do not exist” (PEFC 1999). In light of the earlier DSS discussion (pages 13-15), which describes appropriate methods of soil, weed and pest management, it is fair to comment that using chemicals can be justified in certified forests. One could thus argue for GMO certification following a rigorous assessment of impacts and risk. Interestingly, PEFC Sweden goes on to state “It is especially noted that permethrin is allowed during an exception period”. Whilst potentially reducing environmental impacts, transgenic plants producing pesticides do not allay the fears over increased pest resistance. The introduction of 20 Permethrin costs are estimated at between £40 and £240 per hectare, granular Carbonsulfan at £415 per hectare and weevil guards at £1100 per hectare (UKWAS 2000b). 16 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 single genes may be the easiest approach to resistance, but single genes are susceptible to shifts in the gene pool following selective pressures, and are thus vulnerable to mutations within pest populations (Pimentel et al. 1989). This is particularly pertinent for tree crops, which have years of exposure in a single rotation. In agricultural crops monogenic resistance is overcome in a few years (Wilcox et al. 1996), so pests could devastate tree plantations in mid-rotation. This has been recognised by most proponents of GM, who recommend a very selective use21 of transgenic pest resistant trees until more genes of diverse function have been identified (Strauss 2000a). However, every gene system and not all simple resistance systems will be overwhelmed rapidly. For example, linkage analysis in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) showed that resistance to the rust Cronartium quercuum was monogenic and has been successful despite more than 40 years exploitation as a commercial crop (Wilcox et al. 1996). If exposure to a pesticide could be reduced, the selective pressure on target species might decrease, hence reducing the rate at which a species attains resistance. This could be achieved by linking the expression of inserted genes to inducible promoters. A level of predation could then be tolerated before the trees transgenic defences were activated (Strauss 1998). Furthermore, since many pests attack trees at a specific age (usually juvenile), it could be possible to link transgene expression to developmental stage. This would also reduce the exposure of pests to a toxin. The most prudent compromise seems to be the use of transgenic resistance as a supplement to existing quantitative resistance developed through conventional breeding (Burdon 1999). Thus, coupled with Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) analysis using Marker Assisted Selection (MAS), GM could actually help ensure more lasting pest resistance (Burdon 1999). FSC Criterion 6.6 notes “management systems shall promote the development and adoption of environmentally friendly non-chemical methods of pest management and strive to avoid the use of chemical pesticides”. As noted in the DSS, judgements about pest management must be made by the forest manager and tailored to site specifics (UKWAS 2000b). Importantly, GM could be viewed as an effective non-chemical method. A major motivation for transgenic research is that GMOs are expected to have fewer ecological impacts than use of current chemical practices. English Nature recognise that the use of crops modified for insect tolerance may have potential benefits for farmland wildlife, particularly if their use results in “better targeted or lower impact of agrochemicals” (English Nature 2000). Thus a GM tree producing allopathic or insecticidal chemicals could fulfil criterion 6.6. 3.v. Lignin modification Trees modified for lignin, and indeed other traits such as pest and herbicide resistance, will only be of advantage using short rotation crops such as poplar, eucalypts and some pines (Griffin 1996; Strauss 2000a). Indeed, Jonas Jacobsson of AssiDomän stated “There may be an economic advantage [of using GM] if you have a plantation with a short rotation” (3C Associates 2000). 21 e.g., in very short-rotation plantations, when very large refugia are provided, and where ecological or genetic factors limit gene flow to low levels (Strauss 2000a). 17 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 The modification of lignin biosynthetic pathways could improve the suitability of trees for pulping (Pullman et al. 1998). This can be achieved by reducing lignin content or altering the biochemical composition of lignin; both mechanisms may reduce the need for chemical inputs to treat the pulp. For example, in transgenic tobacco the modification of lignin biosynthetic pathways reduced the Kappa value by 15% (Halpin et al. 1994), i.e. 15% less chemical bleaching was required to whiten the pulp. Enhanced lignin extractability has been reported with GM poplars (Baucher et al. 1998; Whetton et al. 1998). The potential benefits are substantial, with estimates suggesting that pine cad mutants could save $4 per tonne of paper produced by the Kraft process (Jeremy Brawner, pers. comm.). Indeed, a 1% reduction in timber lignin content would increase pulp yield by 1% - 1.5%, and could save the global paper industry billions of dollars (3C Associates 2000). Moreover, reduced inputs of energy, chlorine and other hazardous chemicals could lessen environmental impacts proportionately. Booker and Sell (1998) suggest that lignin modification could compromise the structural integrity of trees and reduce their natural defences, whilst the FSC is concerned about “adaptation and pest resistance of trees, rate of decay of dead wood, and soil structure, biology or fertility, arising from use of GMOs with modified lignin chemistry” (FSC 1999a). However, it appears possible to modify the lignin content of trees without compromising plant viability (MacKay et al. 1997; Franke et al. 2000), and it is likely altered lignin composition will have very minor consequences (Dickson & Walker 1997). Clone 7-56 of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) is a naturally occurring mutant with a modified lignin biosynthetic pathway (MacKay et al. 1997; Ralph et al. 1997). Conventional tree breeders long ago identified 7-56’s value as a parent in the production of trees with improved growth and pulping characteristics and thus incorporated it into their breeding programmes. Consequently, 7-56 progeny are planted on a massive scale throughout the southern states of the USA (Jeremy Brawner, pers. comm.). There have been no reported negative side effects of using this clone or its progeny, and no certification programmes have an issue with 7-56, having certified several thousand hectares (Jeremy Brawner, pers. comm.). MacKay et al. (1995) showed that mutation of the cinnamyl alcohol dehydrogenase gene (cad1-n) is responsible for 7-56’s modified lignin. Plants that have an equivalent phenotype to the cad1-n mutant have been generated for tobacco and poplar (Halpin et al. 1994; Lapierre et al. 1999). Thus the same phenotypic effect can be derived by both conventional and GM methods. It seems paradoxical that a conventionally bred CAD null tree can be accepted and yet CAD-deficient mutants generated through GM cannot. They have the same phenotype and are thus very likely to have the same ecological impacts. This example illustrates a problem for certification with respect to the use of GM to alter lignin. That is, 7-56 homozygotes and CAD-deficient plants derived through GM are phenotypically equivalent, discriminated simply by method of production. Moreover, the FSC’s concerns over lignin modification altering “rate of decay of dead wood, soil structure, biology and fertility” conflict with other FSC-accepted practices. Conifers, such as pines, and angiosperms, such as eucalypts, can be interchangeably planted on the same land. Their very different lignin and wood chemistry, as well as other chemical differences between these diverse taxa, may bring about ecological 18 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 changes greater than anything possible via modification of lignin through GM per se. Moreover, the wood chemistry of exotic species is thought to effect the ecology of plantations far more than lignin modification of a native species. It is this that makes some believe the FSC has “no place bringing lignin modification as a rational concern” (Strauss 2000b) regarding the certification of GM trees. 3.vi. Transgene escape Widespread anxiety has been expressed over the possible contamination of wild populations by transgenic plants, which could compromise natural fitness or introduce some components of fitness that would increase a species weediness potential (Rogers & Parkes 1995; van Raamsdonk & Schouten 1997; Burdon 1999; Ellstrand et al. 1999). The FSC have detailed their concerns over transgene escape22, and make particular reference to the potentially negative impacts arising from the spread of herbicide resistance23. Assessing transgene escape is very complex24 (Kjellsson 1996; Ammann 1999). In brief, considerations must be made regarding: (1) the likelihood of gene flow; (2) the probability of gene establishment (introgression) (Ellstrand et al. 1999); and (3) the impact of an introgressed transgene, which will depend on its effect on the ecological factors regulating the recipient plant population (Crawley et al. 1993; Dale 1994; Schmitt & Linder 1994; Gray & Raybould 1998). Assessing and quantifying these variables draws on theoretical ecology, comparisons with introduced exotic species and recently conducted experimental work. Trees present additional obstacles for analysis because of their long generation times, large size and potential for long distance dispersal of pollen and seed (DiFazio et al. 1998). Thus each transgene and its application must be examined in isolation. These factors have yet to be assessed, since not a single GM tree has yet received approval to reach sexual maturity in a field environment (Griffin 1996). Consideration is given to gene flow, and increased ‘invasiveness’. a) Gene flow To date, most studies have focused on gene flow via pollen in agricultural crops (van Raamsdonk & Schouten 1997). This follows a rational call to assess each species independently due to differences in pollen biology: wind-pollinated plants will disperse their pollen over much greater distances than insect-pollinated species. Pollen may flow into the gene pool of a nearby species, by either outbreeding depression (fitness reduction following hybridisation) or genetic assimilation (dilution of the genetic integrity of the wild species until it is effectively assimilated into the crop species, Ellstrand 1992). This is not restricted to GM plants, but is a potential problem for any plantation, particularly if it constitutes a narrow gene pool since similar genes could ‘flood’ neighbouring populations. For example, hybridisation with non“Dispersal of transgenes to wild or weed populations, with potentially negative impacts, from nonsterile GMO trees, or from those with incomplete or unstable sterility” (FSC 1999a). 23 “Spread of herbicide resistance gene in sexual progeny to trees in environments where those trees are undesirable and where the target herbicide is used” (FSC 1999a). 24 The probability of gene escape depends upon; temporal and spatial opportunities for cross pollination; sexual compatibility between plants; a viable interspecific hybrid; fertile and viable successive backcrosses between hybrids and wild relatives; effective introgression through genomic recombination; the maintenance of introgressed genes from generation to generation; and an enhanced ecological performance of hybrids/backcrosses to natural species (Dale 1994; Rissler & Mellon 1996; van Raamsdonk & Schouten 1997; Chevre et al. 1998). 22 19 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 transgenic crops has been implicated in the extinction of at least five wild relatives of food crops (Small 1984) and the Californian walnut (Juglans hindsii) (Ellstrand 1992)25. The more taxonomically distant an exotic tree is from native species, the lower the chance of gene transfer. Conceivably, if sufficiently distant exotic species of GM trees were used, there would be no risk of transgene passage to native plants. They could thus be certified. Conversely, the more closely related a crop tree is to indigenous wild relatives, the greater the likelihood of gene flow. Thus, in the UK, crops have been classified based on their potential to hybridise with wild species (Rogers & Parkes 1995); black poplar (Populus nigra) and Scotts pine (Pinus sylvestris) have been placed in the highest risk category. Physical proximity is also important; pollen dispersal experiments have confirmed a negative exponential or leptokurtic range of pollen distribution (Scheffer et al. 1993). However, gene flow in poplars has been demonstated over distances of at least 10 Km (Strauss et al. 2000c). This research exemplifies the potential for transgene spread; limited gene flow is inevitable if GM plants are grown close their relatives (van Raamsdonk & Schouten 1997; Ellstrand et al. 1999; McHughen 2000, p.166). It is also noted that “it is a clear mistake to place emphasis on pollen-based gene flow and nothing on the more obvious [sic. seed] route for gene escape” (McHughen 2000, p.166), for this enables gene flow through time as well as space. It is probable that legislation will require sterility in GM trees (Burdon 1999). If genes do manage to pass between related species, several modifications are predicted to give plants a selective advantage, including enhanced tolerance to environmental factors, such as salinity, and pest resistance (Rogers & Parkes 1995). Herbicide resistance is only likely to confer a selective advantage to plants if they are exposed to herbicides. However, plants carrying these traits may be disadvantaged due to the metabolic costs of synthesising proteins in the absence of a selective advantage. Experiments with perennials generated mixed results, suggesting there are no costs associated with resistance genes (Lavigne et al. 1995) but weediness is not increased (Crawley et al. 1993; Snow et al. 1999). However, research is yet to be performed on trees, and is also needed to determine if there is a greater risk attributable to GM transgene spread than to conventional gene spread. However, one of the problems facing regulators and users of GM plants is the quantification of small risks from such experiments, and then scaling them up to plantation scale (Rogers & Parkes 1995). Large-scale releases of pollen will result in a larger flow of genes to wild relatives. Such genes may increase in frequency in the wild population irrespective of their fitness effects, such that a large scale plantations may be sufficient to overcome any deleterious fitness effects of the transgenes (Dale 1994; Gliddon 1994; van Raamsdonk & Schouten 1997). This issue is also not unique to GM plantations, but to any large scale plantation. The risk assessment of gene escape also depends on the nature of the gene. Again, this is equally true of conventional and GM plants. For example, in agriculture ‘Smart Although the evidence for genetic extinction is relatively poor and the alternative is the suggestion that crossing may aid conservation through the conservation of alleles in ‘compilospecies’. 25 20 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 Canola’ has been conventionally bred to express resistance to two herbicides (Concar 1999). Such plants present very similar risks as GM ones, and should therefore be subject to the same risk assessments, for “if the concern over gene spread is valid, the method of initial production is irrelevant” (McHughen 2000, p.113). Thus, the certification requirements imposed on any plantations should be examined. Most certification systems make specific reference to utilising appropriate provenances, varieties and species26. These criteria, particularly those of the PEFC, are designed to address principally the concerns over gene spread between endemic species. Some criteria are very specific, for example 6.3 209 FSC UK requires that “species diversity is maintained and dilution of the local gene pool is minimised” (FSC 1999b). Indeed, FSC UK set stringent requirements on total species composition. However, the caveat ‘appropriate’ and similar dispensations appear in most of these criteria: “Seed of local provenance is used wherever it is available and considered appropriate for planting and restocking of native species” (9.2 335 FSC UK); “for reforestation and afforestation, origins of native species and local provenances that are well adapted to site conditions should be preferred, where appropriate.” (4.2b, PEFC 1998). These exemptions recognise that sustainable forestry is a balance between ecological and financial objectives, and ultimately dependent on numerous variables for which it would be impossible to specifically legislate. Certification may be awarded for planned improvements, and forest managers may make extremely literal interpretations of the criteria. Whilst the criteria aim to prevent subjectivity, ultimately the interpretations of individual assessors will have a role, which may explain why some certification standards have been criticised (Counsell 1999). b) Increased ‘invasiveness’ “Considering the analogy with exotics has been a helpful one in regulating the release of GM” (Nuffield Council on Bioethics 1999); this is because the community level effects of transgenes acquisition by wild relatives have been hypothesised to be similar to those of introduced species (Schmitt & Linder 1994; Williamson 1994; Rogers & Parkes 1995; Rissler & Mellon 1996). Most seriously, the competitive superiority of GM plants, as a consequence of an acquired transgene, may lead to the exclusion and extinction of the native plants (van Raamsdonk & Schouten 1997); “it is the traits that increase competitive behaviour that are of primary concern” (Nuffield Council on Bioethics 1999). The effects of increased competitiveness can cascade through the ecosystem (Rissler & Mellon 1996), for example, in the United States, 42% of the species on the threatened or endangered species list are at risk primarily because of non-indigenous species (USDA 1999) costing the US economy an estimated $138 billion a year (Pimentel et al. 1999). However, some prominent GM scientists “do not believe that transgenics have properties even remotely similar to invasive exotics, and should not be considered along with them for scientific or regulatory purposes”. Exotics form the mainstay of industrial plantations in many countries, and total 98% of the US food system (Pimentel et al. 1999). This is because they grow so well; 10.4, 26 Guidelines 2.2a, 4.1a, 4.2a, and 4.2b (PEFC 1998), Principles 6.3b and 10.3 (FSC 2000a). 21 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 363 FSC UK notes “...native species are preferred. Exotic species are only used where they will substantially out perform native species in terns of meeting the objectives of plantations” (FSC 1999b). In New Zealand 6% of the country is covered in plantation forest. This generates the majority of US$1.42 billion of timber product exports (FAO 2000b), which accounts for 5.5% of national export earnings (ODCI 1999)27. Most of the plantations are of the exotic Pinus radiata, which has been intensively selected, converting the poor wild form into a straight-trunked, fast-growing tree crop (Chilvers & Burdon 1983). Pinus radiata can be highly invasive (Cronk & Fuller 1995), and is considered to be a ‘significant problem’ in scrubland, forest margins, sand dunes, open land and short and tall tussockland (Williams & Timmins 1990). Fletcher Challenge Forests recently decided to opt for FSC and ISO certification of their New Zealand forests, in order to maintain their position in U.S. markets (Kelly 2000). Earlier FSC certifications in New Zealand, such as the Rayonier’s 34,000 ha Southlands Estate, have not considered exotic species inherently problematic. As FSC 6.9 states, “The use of exotic species shall be carefully controlled and actively monitored to avoid adverse ecological impacts”. The situation is similar in Scotland. 6.1 173 FSC UK states “operations planned with consideration of: the spread of invasive species across the forest boundary in either direction”. Thus, it could be argued that the certification of exotic and/or invasive species is possible when contingencies exist for potential negative impacts. The issue of invasive exotics is also pertinent in South Africa, where timber and pulp production are almost entirely dependent on exotic species – pines, eucalypts and Australian acacias (‘wattle’) (von Maltitz 2000). Many of these species have been demonstrated to be highly invasive, particularly in the Fynbos (Cronk & Fuller 1995) and veld-grasslands (Cooper 1999). Indeed, SAPPI have a special eradication programme for alien invasives. Yet three forestry companies have hundreds of thousands of hectares of FSC certified exotic, potentially invasive, forest (FSC 2000c; Von Maltitz 2000). This has drawn criticism from environmental groups in South Africa such as WESSA, who have expressed concern about the credibility of the FSC over their policy surrounding exotics (Murphy 1999). If the potential impact of GM trees is to be analysed, the risks must be considered against current policies for exotic species. The introduction of non-native species is specifically warranted by the FSC. For example, the great spruce bark beetle Dendroctonus micans is a pest of exotic spruce plantations (Speight & Wainhouse 1989) and costly crop losses can be controlled by the exotic predatory beetle Rhizophagus grandis. Thus, 6.9 270 FSC UK states the “use of non-native biological controls such as Rhizophagus grandis may be desirable to control non-native pests”. The use of this exotic beetle reduces economic costs and insecticide application. Its interactions with the environment have, and never will be, fully elucidated, but the benefits are deemed greater than the potential impacts. These arguments ring true for GM. 27 To put this in perspective, Guyana is considered highly dependent on wood product sales that generate 6.5% of export earnings (FAO 2000b, ODCI 1999). 22 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 3.vii. Restricted access to advantages The development costs of GM trees is great. Thus, even large forestry and biotechnology companies are collaborating in projects such as ArborGen 28. However, investing millions of dollars in this field is risky, and only deemed acceptable since patent protection provides a temporary monopoly over new products, enabling companies with the leading technology to dominate their sector. This has raised concern amongst NGOs, who fear poorer growers will be unable to afford increased capital expenditure, and thus have restricted access to the advantages of GM. The FSC acknowledge this anxiety29. However, justifications for sharing of intellectual property will be very difficult, and out-of-line with the increasing harmonisation of global patent protection. However, those pursuing GM technology argue that the higher cost of GM-trees is a demonstration that the trees have additional value; growers will only purchase new products if the additional value is worth the higher price. For example, a traditionally bred hybrid maize seed is purchased by most U.S. farmers since it generates more income, justifying the extra initial expenditure (McHughen 2000, p.192). This is despite having to buy new seed each season. In contrast, the GM tomato, FlavrSavrTM, failed because it was too expensive and the flavour did not warrant consumers spending the extra money (McHughen 2000, p.257-258). However, many small growers, especially in developing countries, cannot afford capital outlay. As illustrated by the Green revolution, additional costs favour larger growers. However, this issue is not specific to GM, and it would be wrong to consider GM in isolation. If we consider current practice, many growers already purchase their seed or seedlings from specialist growers; in vitro generated clones and advanced breeding programmes are beyond the scale of all but large forestry companies or specialist nurseries. If foresters wish to plant improved varieties, invariably they buy from these suppliers, since their access to improved varieties is already restricted, regardless of whether the product is GM. Although certification schemes make specific references to using local provenances where appropriate (PEFC 1998 4.2b; FSC 2000a 9.2), the onus is on genetic diversity. Reference is not made to restrictive or monopolised access to quality seed. Certification is espoused as a means of ensuring socially responsible and sustainable forestry. Yet critics have noted that becoming certified imposes additional costs upon growers (Centero 1998). This additional expenditure, particularly that of the FSC system, is seen by some to exclude small growers (Counsell 1996), especially in developing countries (Banahene 2000). In a market increasingly concerned with a reliable supply of a standardised product, certification makes it even more difficult for small growers to gain access to markets (Counsell 1996). Some have considered a major driving force behind certification to be large companies intent on expanding their market share (Counsell 1996). This may explain why 66% of forests certified under FSC guidelines have been by large industrial enterprises (Thornber 1999). Although the certifiers have acknowledged the difficulties faced by small growers, 28 A venture between the forestry companies, International Paper, Westvaco and Fletcher Challenge, and the biotechnology research company Genesis Research and Development. 29 “Restricted or monopolistic access to advantages, arising from high costs or limited availability of GMO trees.” (FSC 1999a). 23 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 and have tried to develop group systems, the additional expense and limited supply of certifications is restrictive. 3.viii. Reduced biodiversity from sterile trees Due to the potentially negative effects of gene flow, sterility may be required for the release of GM trees (English Nature 2000). The ecological impacts of large sterile plantations has raised concerns (Dr George McGavin quoted in Tickell & Clover 2000) over reduced biodiversity. The FSC is specifically concerned about the “Reduced biodiversity of organisms dependent on flowers and fruits, arising from use of sterile GMOs” (FSC 1999a). Moreover, the FSC has doubts over the ability of trees engineered for sterility to prevent gene flow to native plants30. Engineered sterility is seen mainly as a risk reduction measure to minimise negative effects of transgene flow and genetic erosion. However, sterility can offer other benefits. Reproductive growth requires between 15% and 30% of a trees energy (Owusu 1999). Thus, suppression of reproductive tissues could channel more resources into vegetative growth and thus could greatly increase productivity. Furthermore, it could reduce airborne allergens. Sterility can be conferred in two ways. The first involves the suppression of the floral genes that are essential to produce fertile gametes. This can be achieved through either antisense suppression of gene expression31 or homology-dependent gene silencing32. The principal disadvantage of these approaches is that native genes or highly homologous equivalents are needed. This greatly increases the research time and expense of modification. Furthermore, floral development is very complex, and thus redundancy would have to be built into the system in order to ensure stability throughout a plant’s life, and would require many genes to be used. For example, LEAFY (LFY) in Arabidopsis controls a developmental switch to convert lateral shoots into flowers (Weigel & Nilsson 1995). The main stem must acquire competence to respond to LFY, and this capability increases during the life cycle (Weigel & Nilsson 1995). Thus, genes prior to LFY control LFY expression, and include promotors of flowering such as COSTANS and inhibitors of flowering such as TERMINAL FLOWER. Research using PTFL, a poplar LFY homologue, indicates that these promotors and inhibitors are in turn governed by a complex system of genes that respond to day-length (Rottmann et al. 2000). Moreover, genes downstream of LFY control precise floral organ development (Coen & Meyerowitz 1991). By targeting different genes in this complex system redundancy may be ensured. Suppression of floral genes is attractive for modification since fertility is impaired at various stages of floral differentiation (Melian & Strauss 1997), which enables selective sterility to be generated in tissue-specific regions. For example, modifying structural or catalytic proteins essential for pollen formation could generate male sterility. Whilst safe-guarding against gene flow via pollen, breeders could still cross female flowers with pollen producing trees. However, such modifications of pollen “Dispersal of transgenes to wild or weed populations, with potentially negative impacts, from nonsterile GMO trees, or from those with incomplete or unstable sterility” (FSC 1999a). 31 An inverse copy of the gene is inserted into the genome, the transcribed RNA of which binds with the transcribed RNA of the target gene, thus negating its activity. 32 Co-suppression of existing floral regulatory genes is achieved due to the insertion of an additional copy of the gene. 30 24 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 producing genes may not enhance vegetative growth, because expression is late in floral development. Moreover, the problems of seed production and gene flow via seed still exist, and the FSC is specifically concerned about partial sterility that does not entirely prevent gene flow (FSC 1999a). The second means of generating sterile trees would be through the expression of cytotoxin genes in a floral tissue-specific fashion. This would disrupt or ablate organspecific tissues and since early and frequent floral-specific expression, floral homeotic gene promotors are probably best suited for engineering complete sterility, whilst enhancing growth (Meilan & Strauss 1997). However, occurrences of instability in transgene expression have been reported (Denis et al. 1993), and it is these instances that concern ecologists and the FSC about transgene spread. Trees remain in situ for many years, and are seldom closely monitored. A breakdown of sterility could go unnoticed for many years and allow GM genes to escape to wild populations. If sterility is an important aspect of gene containment for regulatory and certificatory purposes, it is critical to demonstrate that sterility is maintained under a range of conditions and development stages. This requires non-contained field trials. It will take many more years of work to develop guaranteed sterility systems (Strauss 2000a). Until then, existing sterility systems will be a risk reduction measure, and require an acceptance of small transgene releases. However, the problems of timescale, massive pollen releases and the rarity of the breakdown in sterility makes monitoring difficult and costly. Coping with a breakdown in sterility and the potential consequences of transgene releases could be impossible. However, equivalence must be invoked when considering the ecological aspects of sterile plantations. If the technology is regulated properly and used with consideration, there is no reason to expect a negative consequence of failed sterility transgenes. Furthermore, it is unlikely the consequences of failed sterility will be as dramatic as those described for Pinus radiata introduction (Cronk & Fuller 1995). Currently, large plantations of exotics are certified. The productive areas of these forests are often highly effect environments, with a biological composition radically different to the wild systems they replace (Peterken 1992). Certification systems acknowledge the detrimental impacts of exotic species, but agree the increased yield from non-natives justifies their use. Thus they aim to ensure ecosystem management to maximise beneficial activities and minimise adverse impacts. Equally, these ecosystem management practices could be applied to sterile trees, since the potential for increased wood production is great and certification systems could justify greater proportions of the forest dedicated to ecologically beneficial practices. GM is likely to be used with exotic species in short-rotation, commercial plantations (Griffin 1996; 3C Associates 2000; Strauss 2000a). The ablation of reproductive organs, and consequently the loss of reproductive food matter to organisms in these plantations, would represent only a small impact when contrasted to those already imposed through the use of exotics. The very reason exotics grow so prolifically is thought to be their unpalatablity to a significant number of pests (Speight 1989). 25 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 3.ix. General concerns The FSCs concern over “Reduced adaptability to environmental stresses, changes to interaction with other organisms, and increased weediness or invasiveness, in GMO trees with new features” (FSC 1999a) encapsulates all their previous points. Reference to the preceding sections should be made to discuss these specific issues. However, treating such issues as disparate overlooks the potential problem that these factors may compound and interact. The resultant gestalt could be unpredictable and pose potential problems. 4. Evaluating the risks 4.i. Predictability and instability Although not expressly voiced by certification systems, the unpredictability of genetic transformation has raised concerns in the scientific community. This is because the “Insertion of a novel gene can have a collateral impact on the rest of a hosts genome, resulting in unintended side effects” (Owusu 1999). New genes that could conceivably disrupt the metabolism of an organism will usually produce transgenics that are lethal. However, experience with maize showed that a cytoplasmic male-sterility factor led to the breakdown of resistance to the rust fungus Bipolaris maydis (Levings 1990). Although the technology used in this example is dated, genetic instability could produce many unintended effects that only manifest themselves years after deployment. The vast majority of transgenes are stable but there have been instances of instability, including altered patterns of gene expression (van der Hoeven et al. 1992) and the failure of engineered sterility (Denis et al. 1993). Instability may be induced by high temperatures (Broer et al. 1992; Meyer et al. 1992; Walter et al. 1992), which are thought to alter methylation (Meyer et al. 1992). This illustrates an important principle. Since many genes are environmentally and developmentally regulated, the physiological state of plants can have an important effect on transgene expression, thus, the risks of collateral alterations to stressactivated genes “cannot be anticipated until the stress response is actually triggered” (Owusu 1999). This is of special import for forest trees because they are exposed to environmental fluctuations for much longer periods than agricultural crops. Moreover, a time lag could make the problems of instability more acute because the widespread planting of a particular cultivar could be spaced over many years. A greater time frame also has a bearing on the uncertain risk of novel gene mutation. However, some have pointed out that in 1999 alone GM crops covered 45 million hectares (100 million acres) in North America, and there are no documented dramatic or adverse or unexpected effects from any of these plants (McHughen 2000, p.190). Studies with poplars have shown stable gene expression for several years (Strauss, pers. comm., 2000). The rigorous testing and regulatory policies prior to commercial GMO release are considered effectively to remove unstable cultivars. Extensive quantities of data are gathered in trails, and the quantified risks satisfy assessors and government legislators, although they may not allay the concerns of some groups who question the independence of assessors. Simple steps could also be taken to lessen the potential pitfalls of instability. Just as for risk aversion in clonal plantations, a variety of transformants could be planted. These could have a number of transgenic insertions 26 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 with multiple copies of the desired transgenes (Burdon 1999). Again the debate centres on risk analysis, and as such should focus on the specific GM trait. It is important to note that “all living things are subject to natural genetic instability” (McHughen 2000, p.189). Pieces of DNA called transposable elements can move directly from one chromosome site to another (Fedoroff 1992), multiply, and occasionally re-arrange neighbouring DNA sequences (Alberts et al. 1989). They are thought to make up 10% of higher eukaryote genomes, and can affect gene regulation (Alberts et al. 1989). Such inherent instability is in present in all plants. Genetic changes induced by transposable elements are accommodated by phenotypic plasticity. As such, GM would not present any new phenomenon of instability. 4.ii. Risk assessment Some FSC supporters are against the deployment of GMOs33 (Greenpeace 2000), whilst other supporters call for a moratorium (Owusu 1999). The spectrum of potential GM applications has lead many bodies to recommend that “regulators should explore the pros and cons of adopting a more explicit risk / benefit assessment” (Nuffield Council on Bioethics, 1999). Risk assessment can be controversial, reflecting the important role that both science and judgement play in drawing conclusions about the likelihood of effects on human well-being and the environment; contention often arises from incomplete knowledge. To make an effective risk management decision, stakeholders need to know what potential harm a situation poses and how great is the likelihood that this harm will be realised. Each application should be examined in isolation; however, the hazards of GM cannot be properly evaluated (Apel 2000). While the extent of exposure can be estimated, there are no responses to exposure. Contemporary risk models must thus make assumptions (Burdon 1999), and herein lie the seeds of dispute. Those against GM extol the precautionary principle34 based on our lack of knowledge, whilst others maintain negative assertions can never be proven, and GMO deployment should be based on comparisons with current practices. This has lead some to argue that the “anti-biotechnology contingent has made the lack of scientific knowledge part of a strongly subjective standard of risk assessment, and coupled it with a confirmation bias35” (Apel 2000). Countering this, some of the scientific community believe “... the simple principle of genetic modification spells ecological disaster. There are no ways of quantifying the risks... ...The solution is simply to ban the use of genetic modification.” (Narang 2000). This dichotomy of views may rest with philosophical beliefs surrounding ‘natural’ procedures and the role of multi-nationals in dictating much of biotechnology research in forestry. As such societal interests play a strong role in moulding the perceptions of GM. Reconciling these different perspectives may be very difficult. Proving GM is non-hazardous requires a negative proof, and science cannot corroborate such assertions. A logical approach is to compare the risks of the specific “genetically modified organisms must not be released into the environment” “When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-and-effect relationships are not fully established scientifically” (Wingspread Consensus Statement on the Precautionary Principle 1999). 35 Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to discriminate on what confirms one's beliefs. 33 34 27 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 product in question with currently acceptable risks. However, the notion of substantive equivalence is not often popular with official bodies because it may expose existing practices as flawed. Yet equivalence is the rational scientific approach (McHughen 2000). As such, an examination of currently acceptable practice for certified forests should reveal comparable requirements for the certification of GM forests. One of the greatest justifications of anti-GM lobbyists are the potential impacts of GM. Many thus advocate the precautionary principle, at least until the variables are known and a risk assessment can be completed. Yet, consider PEFC prescriptions: “acidification could be controlled by liming. The short term and long term ecological impacts of large scale liming are not fully evaluated” (C5.3, PEFC Sweden, Annex 4, 1999). Liming to combat acidification is considered acceptable, despite its impacts not being fully evaluated. This is contrary to the precautionary principle. Many could draw a parallel between accepted practices such as these and the certification of GM. Indeed, practices considered by some to be very damaging to the environment are justified by increased harvest; “the removal of tops and branches and rotten round wood as wood energy is a supplementary harvest. To compensate for nutrient loss, ashes from wood burning shall be brought back to the forest or compensating fertilising shall be done according to special rules” (Criterion 3:2, PEFC Sweden Annex 5, 1999). Again a value judgement of cost and benefit has been made after assessing potential risks. This would argue that GM applications could be examined on a case by case basis, rather than imposing an outright ban. That is, “focus on the risks of the product, not the process”, (McHughen 2000, p.159) just as in conventional forestry. Since the application of GM cannot be analysed by conventional risk assessment approaches, alternative methods must be carried out. This should be based on scientific fact and substantive equivalence. Because the philosophical bent of individuals is relevant, assessors should be “cognisant and transparent36”, combining social awareness with the tenets of rigorous science (Farnham et al. 2000). This ensures a more realistic elucidation and quantification of the trade-offs faced. In order to ensure such deductive distinctions are as objective as possible, knowledge should be integrated through discussion and debate. Nevertheless, it is important to note that “in every study so far, no evidence has been found that GM crops present special risks. The types of risk are exactly the same as for crops modified by the classical plant-breeding methods" (Cook 2000). If certification systems are to accept GMOs, they have two options. They could accept the judgement of the national systems that currently assess applications for GMO release. This would be very simple, but the differences between national systems could be contentious; some nations are seen as having more rigorous standards than others. However, if certifiers are not satisfied with the stringency of a national system they could impose requirements to meet their own, or another countries, more demanding criteria. Given that it is likely GMO plantations will first appear in developing countries (Owusu 1999), and that national legislation and its implementation may be lacking, it is possible that certification represents the only “What distinguishes the cognisant and transparent scientist is simply a greater understanding of the geography of the modern world of science and policy”.(Farnham et al. 2000). 36 28 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 means of ensuring transgenic releases are safe. As such, it is important for certifiers to recognise that despite never being able to quantify precisely the risks of GM, it is important for them to examine their policies and develop a more sophisticated and realistic approach to the certification of GMOs. Moreover, since it has been shown that silencing of one transgene by another may occur (Matzke & Matzke 1991), widespread monitoring of GMOs has been proposed (Rogers & Parkes 1995). Certification systems could be in a unique position to ensure this monitoring is carried out on a large scale. As always, it is the application and specifics of the GMO which should be assessed. Risk analysis is very difficult since all variables cannot be known. If GM is to be accepted this will require a flexible certification system. In light of the current permitted practices, from a rational perspective, many applications of GM could be certified, even without risk assessment. Having said this, it is important to note that this is considering GM applications on a case-by-case basis. 29 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 5. Conclusions (The power of politics: the business of certification) Certification was conceived well before the launch of the FSC, but the Rio Summit of 1992 provided an impetus for its expansion (EFI 2000). Initial growth was rapid, but some critics consider that certification will plateau; companies who can easily comply with certification criteria, recognising the potential market benefits, will probably undertake certification, whilst others will wait and assess the repercussions. From a business perspective, if certified companies do not receive the benefits touted by certification, it is not logical to disrupt existing procedures and undertake expensive audits. For example, most pulp and paper companies are not interested in FSC certification because demand is satisfied by ISO certification (von Maltitz 2000). Figures for a plateau in certification are inconclusive. In March 1999, 15 million hectares were FSC-certified world-wide (FSC 1999e). Eighteen months later this figure has risen to 17.7 million hectares (FSC 2000e). However, most FSC certifications are of state-owned forests or large companies whose holdings are already almost compatible with FSC criteria (e.g. Assidomän). Since certification is partly a marketing exercise, it is important to develop a credible brand37 that is widely recognised. Developing consumer recognition requires, among other things, a ‘threshold volume’ of products on sale. If this volume of products is available, certification will have a market presence and should take-off. The influence of buyers-groups, both in exercising a preference for certified timber, and in communicating that preference to their customers, will be instrumental in market development. It is likely retailers and traders will play a key role in promoting certification. However, without the momentum that industry could supply, existing certification mechanisms may become redundant because they do not achieve this market presence. Despite its scale, the FSC are struggling to woo industrial newcomers. This is because industry generally perceives the FSC criteria as rigid, and instead prefer the more ‘flexible’, particularly regional, systems. For example, Rayonier New Zealand recently relinquished FSC certification after two years, but maintained ISO certification and supports the regional VEP system (Hunt 1999). Moreover, in the U.S., Rayonier has over 500,000 ha of land under the AF & PA’s SFI. This is thought to be because many in the forestry industry believe the FSC system to be unsuited to plantation forestry; the FSC started largely as a response to natural forest exploitation and is perceived by the forest industry as having a “known dislike of plantations and preference for returning land to natural forest” (Pine 1999). As noted, FSC certification appeals primarily to timber forestry companies. Big pulp and paper companies such as SAPPI USA, after undertaking ISO certification, are ‘fence-sitting’ over FSC certification, monitoring the impact of those companies already FSC-certified (Jeremy Brawner, pers. comm.). The FSC recognise this. For example, the percentage composition of virgin wood fibre in paper was reduced from 37 The backing the FSC receives from prominent environmental NGOs ensures credibility with the public. 30 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 70% to 30% “to make FSC market claims more accessible to industries” (FSC 2000d). The FSC also modified their definition of GMOs, which now permits clones and some forms of advanced breeding technology (FSC 1999a). The FSC is the only major certification system to reject the use of GM in trees. Many leaders in the forestry industry are examining the potential of GM, but recognise the anti-GM stance of the FSC and the NGOs which support and help finance the FSC. These NGOs are thought to hold considerable sway over policies, and provide ‘green credentials’ and limited funding to the FSC. For the FSC this represents a dilemma. All certification bodies need industrial backing to expand their brand and market penetration, and thus require industrial certifications. However, if the FSC were to reverse its no-GM policy, it may loose important NGO support and consequently its credibility as an eco-friendly label. GM thus, unfortunately, becomes a political concern rather than a rational assessment of economic, social or environmental value. As noted, many of the concerns about GM expressed by the FSC and NGOs (FSC 2000a, Greenpeace 2000, Soil Association 2000, Owusu 1999) are equivalent to existing procedures which are permitted by FSC criteria. However, it is probable the FSC will not permit GM in the near future, although GM-plantations are predicted to develop in 5 – 10 years. Industrial forestry companies interested in the certification of GM products will continue to pursue ISO and other forms of certification, such as PEFC and the AF & PAs’ SFI, rather than FSC. From the examples illustrated throughout the paper, the likelihood of GMOs being certified will be based more on conceptions of ‘natural’ than the impact on the environment. For companies not interested in GM the situation is different. One of the prime motivations for businesses becoming certified are marketing benefits. AssiDomän were one of the first companies to become certified, and currently over 2.4 million hectares (5.4 million acres), or 26% of Swedish FSC-certified forest, are FSCcertified (FSC 2000c). AssiDomän supply developed markets composed of informed, discerning consumers, and operate mostly in slow-growing boreal forests. GM in boreal conditions would offer no real advantages (3c Associates 2000, Strauss 2000a, Griffin 1996) because growth is slow, and AssiDomän have chosen not to pursue GM. Yet AssiDomän are the largest Swedish paper products company and in the future may suffer increased competition from GM short rotation plantations. Since long rotation forests probably cannot partake in the potential benefits of GM, certification may offer a means of remaining competitive. The market advantage conferred by FSC certification could exclude competitors from counties where GM could offer competitive advantages. 31 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 6. Acronyms AF&PA CSA DNA DSS EMS FSC GM GMO ISO ITTO LEI MAS NGO PEFC QTL RNA SFI SFM TFAP UKWAS VEP WWF American Forest and Paper Association Canadian Standards Association deoxyribonucleic acid Decision Support System Environmental Management Systems Forest Stewardship Council genetic modification genetically modified organism International Standards Organisation International Tropical Timber Organisation Lambaga Ekolabel Indonesia marker assisted selection non-governmental organisation Pan-European Forestry Council quantitative trait loci ribonucleic acid Sustainable Forestry Initiative sustainable forest management Tropical Forest Action Plan UK Woodland Assurance Scheme Verification of Environmental Performance Worldwide Fund for Nature 7. Acknowledgements Dr. Malcolm Campbell for his time, infectious enthusiasm and ‘endless’ knowledge Dr. Stephen Harris for his lengthy deliberations and welcome advice Dr. Simon Pryor for his time and thoughts Those in industry who wish to remain anonymous yet provided so many valuable insights Jeremy Brawner for his consideration and friendship Those who contributed to a global understanding: John Scotcher (South Africa), Simon Southerton, Dr. Peter Kanowski, Dr. Christine Dean (Australia), Dr. Steve McKeand and Dr. Steve Strauss (US), and Dr. Rod Griffin (UK). 32 Coventry, P. (2001) OFI Oc casional Papers No. 53 8. References 3C Associates (2000). If you go down to the woods today... 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