BANK OF ISRAEL
Office of the Spokesman and Economic Information
Press Release:
Monetary Policy Report July–December 2011
Inflation: In the second half of 2011 (the period reviewed in this report) the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged, and on a seasonally adjusted basis
increased at a moderate pace of 0.4 percent. The main components that contributed to
the increase in the general index were housing (rents) and housing maintenance. The
main factors moderating the increase were food, education and culture, and transport
and communication. The inflation rate, as measured by the change in the CPI, in 2011
was 2.2 percent, near the midpoint of the price stability target range. The largest
contribution, 1.2 percent, was the housing component; the CPI excluding housing
increased only 1 percent.
The global economic environment: During the second half of 2011, the debt crisis in
Europe deteriorated sharply, and led to a slowdown in real activity, and a sharp
increase in risk in financial markets world wide. The slowdown in activity in Europe
spread to other advanced economies, as well as to emerging economies, and they
responded with expansionary monetary policy, primarily through interest rate
reductions. In contrast US economic data surprised on the upside. With that, the US
rate of growth remains low, compared with the years before the 2007–09 financial
crisis.
Real economic activity: The crisis in Europe had a significant negative impact on
demand for Israeli exports, and was the main factor in a slowdown in domestic real
activity. Likewise, there was a slowdown in the rate of growth of private
consumption, with a decline in consumer durables purchases. As a result, the rate of
GDP growth slowed from about 4 percent in the first half of the year, to about 3
percent in the last six months of the year. Despite the moderation in the rate of
growth, the level of activity was high, and according to most indicators, Israel's
economy is near full employment.
Financial markets: Financial markets in Israel were affected by developments in the
crisis in Europe, as well as by local factors, primarily the high level of political
uncertainty in the Middle East. As a result, during the period reviewed, the general
share index declined sharply, by 22 percent in dollar terms, and volatility increased.
The decline in the stock market index in Israel was more moderate than in Europe, but
sharper than in most other countries. At the same time, for the first time since the
recent financial crisis, there was an increase in the yield gap between corporate bonds
and government bonds—a development which indicates the market's expectation of a
deterioration in the state of domestic companies.
Exchange rate: After an appreciation of about 5 percent in terms of the effective
exchange rate in the first half of the year, the trend reversed in the second half, and
the shekel depreciated 4.7 percent. The main factors behind the depreciation are a
slide to a deficit in the current account of the balance of payments, a decline in the
risk adjusted yield gap between Israel and abroad, and the continued operation of
regulatory measures.
Home prices: The rate of increase of home prices over the previous 12 months
moderated and reached 7 percent by the end of the year. Data for the months
September–November show a slight decline in home prices, the first decline in a long
time. This development indicates the possibility of a turnaround in the development of
prices. Several factors were responsible for the moderation: increases in the monetary
interest rate, which occurred until the second half of the year; macroprudential
measures in the mortgage market; and steps by the government to increase supply,
which also had an effect on prices through the public's expectations.
The macroeconomic forecast in the period reviewed1: The slowdown in real
activity and in inflation was expressed as well in the forecasts for 2012 which were
prepared in the Bank of Israel Research Department during the period reviewed, and
which serve as important inputs in interest rate decisions. In the forecast which was
published on July 25, 2011, the expected rate of real economic growth in 2012 was
3.9 percent, the rate of inflation was forecast to be 2.6 percent, and these were
consistent with a monetary interest rate of 4.3 percent which was forecast for the end
of the year. At the end of the period reviewed, the forecast for 2012 reflected the
assessments regarding the worsening of the slowdown in activity and moderation of
inflation, and at the same time, the Bank of Israel interest rate reductions which had
taken place. In this updated version, the Research Department forecast real activity to
grow by 2.8 percent, with the inflation rate at 2.6 percent, and the Bank of Israel
interest rate to be 2.2 at the end of the year, lower by about 2 percentage points than
the July forecast.
Monetary policy: In the third quarter of 2011, the Bank of Israel stopped the interest
rate increases it had carried out since the middle of 2009, and in the fourth quarter the
Bank began a policy of interest rate reductions. The Bank of Israel interest rate was
lowered by 0.25 percentage points in both October and December, and at year-end
stood at 2.75 percent. The Bank continued to reduce the interest rate even after the
period reviewed, and in February 2012 it was reduced by 0.25 percentage points. The
switch to a policy of interest rate reductions was intended first and foremost to
support real activity and reduce the cost of credit in the economy, in light of the
slowdown in activity and the concern of a financial crisis in Europe. It was made
possible by the moderation in the inflation environment. Concurrent with interest rate
policy, the Bank of Israel continued to take regulatory steps in the foreign exchange
market and the housing credit market in order to maintain financial stability and
support real activity.
1
The latest forecast in the period reviewed was presented in summary on December 26, 2011, the date
of the publication of the interest rate decision for January 2012.