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Elisabeth Hiller
UD4023BBA9204
Andragogy Essay about:
`Fast-Dying Industries`
An Assignment Presented to
The Academic Department
Of the School of Business and Economics
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
For The Degree of the Doctor of Philosophy
In Business Administration
ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
31st August, 2008
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Fast-dying industries
Introduction
Challenging environments contribute to increasing competition. Some industries succeed in
environmental turmoil, some struggle for survival. Competitive advantage is not always easy
to build, but may derive from cost advantages. In contrast to standardized processes – which
can be copied – cost advantage commonly do not invite to imitate. Cost advantages can be
generated by economies of scale or experience, and it takes much time for competitors to
discover major sources of cost-cutting. Building brands and creating brand loyalty usually is
connected with marketing budgets. What strategies can be appropriate to drive companies in
declining industries? There are more than one or two routes to manage firms in endangered
industries. The question is here how downturns can be identified, and how to cope with
external environment, especially competitors. Essentially, there is no `best way` to deal with
the phenomenon of deteriorating customer demand. Price elasticity plays a vital role,
changing preferences influence warehousing, and volatility of market forces dominates
reactions of the top management of a company. Action usually seems to offer advantages in
contrast to reactions that give the impression of energies outside the companies which direct
pace of change and kind of response. Dying industries do regularly react concerning prices,
and thus there is evidence that a company should reap profits early to compensate losses in
case of changed demand behavior. Price skimming is one version of exploiting client group
tier by tier, offering relatively high prices at the beginning and then lowering the prices over
time. Therefore sunk costs can be covered quickly – they are costs that occurred in the past
and cannot be influenced at the present and in the future. Riding down the demand curve
follows the idea that customers are willing to pay for surplus, and that a company is able to
maximize profits, supposed it handles pricing with care. But, in case of declining industries,
these options are no longer available. If used in the past, earlier savings may balance lower
prices. The challenge of how to deal with declining industries leads to three different fields of
consideration.
First, the question is put how managers guide companies in declining industries. There are
different options to choose in case economic downturn cannot be prevented. And, there are
things to do before a company gets into trouble – staying active and staying attractive requires
knowledge about the internal and external environment. Innovation is a key dimension to
keep customers` eyes on the company and its products and services. But, innovation requires
money, ideas, resources of many kinds, and a feeling for future trends. Thus, supplying a firm
with financial resources is only one dimension to prevent falling back. Others concern market
observation and strategic thinking. Introducing the concept of the product life cycle and
connecting it with the industry life cycle reveals that rising and descending products are
regular phenomena and not the exception. To reveal dependencies – if a company had only
one product and a patent on it, it would be relatively secure concerning imitation or generic
drugs in the pharmaceutical sector. But, after the protected period, there would be no
substitute. Thus, in search for security, there is a need to develop products, services,
processes, skills, capabilities, and last but not least, strategic competitive advantages
permanently. As a consequence, in case of successful products, surplus profits can be earned,
and simultaneously new things can be tried out. Second, the role of endgame strategies is
analyzed. The main strategies of leadership, niche, harvesting, and, at last, divesting by
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Harrigan and Porter are introduced to cluster remaining demand pockets in relation to industry
structure. Endgame strategies do not always fit into employees` plans and expectations. In
reality it turns out to be not so easy to define the position of a company or the position of a
product, as the relevant market needs to be scrutinized. In case the emphasis is on the
industry, in general the trend can be identified, for example less preference for bowling alleys
and game arcades, and instead increasing market of sophisticated home-gaming systems (cf.
Trends E-Magazine, 2008, p.2). Third, the human resource related dimension is introduced,
focusing on the process of learning in the field of work. The individuals` competences offer a
wide range of opportunities for companies. But, how does a person acquire appropriate
knowledge and skills? How does a person know what will be necessary in the future – and
who pays for it? At whose risk do learning activities happen? Practically, there occur some
problems with the psychological contract an employee agrees to the company. It is often
regarded as the intention of the company to keep staff updated with state-of-the-art knowledge
and skills – out of the perspective of an employee. Concerning short-term contracts and
modern appearances of cost-cutting like outsourcing, it is evident that employees need to
individually care for attractiveness in the work environment – out of the perspective of a
company. Thus, to sum up, the process of learning offers at least two perspectives to think
about whose responsibility competence is. The conclusion puts emphasis on both the control
process in companies and the subjective feeling of security or insecurity, respectively.
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How can a manager guide companies in declining industries?
`When two or more firms compete within the same market, one firm possesses a competitive
advantage over its rivals when it earns (or has the potential to earn) a persistently higher rate
of profit` (Grant, 2002, p.227). Surpassing rivals for the sake of profitability or stabilizing
market share grounds on competitive advantage which ` requires some form of change to
occur` (op.cit.) and derives from either internal sources of change, e.g. innovative ideas, or
from external sources of change, e.g. changes in customer demand, prices, new technologies.
Decreasing revenues and shrinking market shares tell companies to take corrective action.
But, the question is how a company can know what customers – the ones who purchase - and
consumers – the ones who use products or services – will choose in the future. And, if firms
knew, they needed to align resources into new channels to become effective. The problem
seems to be the solution – what to sell and how to produce must be revealed. Following
Schumpeterian terminology, circular flow ceases into stationary state, if innovations do not
emerge. Walrasian equilibrium, which is a competitive balance, leads to a stationary state.
Austrian economist and political scientist Joseph Alois Schumpeter (1883-1950) made the
entrepreneur hero of leaving the equilibrium by innovations that cared for new surpluses.
During the eighteenth century, in the Age of Enlightenment when reason replaced superstition
and knowledge revolutionized thinking as the works of Descartes and Newton demonstrate,
mechanical improvements as the 1769 patented steam engine by Scottish James Watt
contributed significantly to progress. Shorter intervals of inventions pushed convenience by
producing facilitating goods. According to Grant (2002, pp.305-16) demand growth and the
production and diffusion of knowledge are the powers that shape industry evolution.
Consequently, diminishing demand triggers one of several different strategies. So, there is a
need to look at the life cycle of products.
The concept of the product life cycle – four stages that are introduction, then growth,
maturity, and at last decline – affects industries as well. New products lead to growth in sales,
they peak in maturity, and go down until they cease – or are being re-launched. Product life
cycles face their supply-side equivalent industry life cycle. Thus, if products die, industries
die, unless contemporaneous developments to create new goods and services are experienced.
First, small sales and low rates of market penetration in the introduction stage derive from
little knowledge about the product, high costs, high prices, low quality, and few customers.
Second, standardization leads to experience, falling prices, entering the mass market, and so
growth happens. Here customers become increasingly informed, thus diffusion of knowledge
happens. Third, slowing growth because of saturation leads to direct replacement with
customers substituting old products by new ones, or indirect replacement with new customers
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instead of old ones. Finally, both product and industry –depending on the scope – enter the
decline stage as superior technologies supersede familiar ones. To sum up, the key success
factors after Grant (2002, p.311) for introduction is product innovation, growth is triggered by
design for manufacture and access to distribution, maturity is reached by cost efficiency and
high quality, and decline reflects low overheads, buyer selection and rationalizing capacity.
Intending to keep up with changing external environments organizations can choose between
selection and adaption (Grant, 2002, p.317). Selection refers to organizational routines which
are a prerequisite for scale effects, but at the same time may work as `competency traps` that
turn core competencies into obstacles to change. Organizational change needs fresh ideas,
new skills and adaptive behavior for learning new capabilities. Thus, usually, people are
frightened and feel their existing power structure threatened. Gradual change, step by step, is
generally regarded as too slow to keep up with external pace of change. Therefore, radical
instead of incremental change offers more opportunities for success, acknowledging that
employee turmoil may occur. However, incremental change, slowly and cautiously operated,
fits more into staff`s expectation, it is nicer. An analysis of top managers reflected that they
waste energy for stressing the present and the past instead of putting emphasis on the future,
so Hamel and Prahalad drew conclusions of their investigation by formulating the `new
strategy paradigm`: the competitive challenge should not only reengineer processes, but also
regenerate strategies; finding the future should not only ground on strategy as learning, but
also on strategy as forgetting and as foresight; mobilizing for the future should not only regard
strategy as fit, but also strategy as stretch; getting to the future first should not only minimize
the time to market, but also minimize time to global preemption (Hamel and Prahalad, 1995).
Thus, careful development of strategies seems to be crucial for success. Today, many CEOs
and companies pretend to operate within long-term strategies, but in fact place one activity
after the other. Focusing on short-term results supports this managerial behavior. However,
there is a way out: while serving present markets with modern products, coincidentally
another strategy pointing at future markets needs to be implemented.
What is the role of end-game strategies?
The transition from thriving to declining or dying industries can be caused by state-of-the-art
products, substituted technology, differing consumer preferences, foreign competition, and
demographic shifts. Grant (1995, p.380) identifies key characteristics of declining industries:
excess capacity, lack of technical change, declining number of competitors, high average age
of both physical and human resources, and aggressive price competition. But, some
participants in the declining league earn respectable profits as Harrigan`s research (1980)
revealed, e.g. cigars, leather tanning. Predictability of decline, barriers to exit and strategies of
the surviving firms trigger attention (Grant, 1995, p.381). Capacity needs to be adjusted to
reduced customer demand. Industries with enormous warehouse stock suffer more from
changed customer preferences than those which do not have to manage inventories of the past.
Organizations face the challenge to predict decline – if economic downturns can be forecast,
companies are more able to cope with it than those which feel completely surprised. Oil
companies were shocked when in 1974 and six years later prices boosted overwhelmingly.
Volatile industries suffer more than those in stable environments. Their systems to analyze
future trends need to be more sensitive to notice earliest changes. The barriers to exit embrace
durable and specialized assets, such as high capital requirements to enter the market usually
lead to durable and lasting assets that cannot easily be used elsewhere, costs deriving from
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closure of plants such as redundancy payments, and managerial commitments such as loyalty
to employees, reputation and unwillingness to admit failures. Surviving companies early
recognize industry changes and are able to act accordingly, e.g. to initiate independently or
collectively actions to tackle the problem. In declining industries managers conventionally
may choose between divesting or harvesting, both of which means to generate and skim
maximum profit `from existing investments without reinvesting` (Grant, 1995, p.382). Both
divesting and harvesting strategies assume unprofitable earnings. Profits in declining
industries can be generated either by choosing one out of four strategies or using them in turn,
as Harrigan and Porter suggest in their `end-game strategies for declining industries` (1983,
pp.111-20). First, leadership in this context means taking a dominant role within the industry
and acquiring a strong position, for example by encouraging competitors to quit and leave,
and then purchase their plants. Practically, a superior company in a declining industry may
help a competitor to lower his/her exit costs. Second, niche strategy focuses on a small
segment where a company may establish dominance. Most profits in niches can be earned
where temporary stability occurs and inelastic demand supports calculable outcomes. Third,
harvesting means squeezing out existing assets and not investing anything combined with
raising prices and scaling down portfolio of products, the number of channels and the number
of customers, means to gather outcomes from earlier investments. This strategy may support
accelerated decline. It may influence employee morality negatively as staff assumes
hopelessness and a rapid clearance. Fourth, and finally, in case of dead-end industries,
companies may decide to divest in early stages, as acquiring buyers turns out to be more
successful than in times of established decline. Depending on the individual assessment, top
management needs some leading questions for decision-making. Harrigan and Porter (1983)
introduced the following four considerations: first, can the structure of the industry support a
potentially profitable decline phase? Second, what are the exit barriers for each competitor?
Third, do the remaining company strengths meet customer demand? And finally fourth, what
strengths do competitors have, how can their exit barrier be overcome? Structuring allows the
following explanation: strengths in remaining demand pockets and an industry structure that
is favorable to decline means `leadership or niche`. Strengths in remaining demand pockets
and an industry structure that is unfavorable to decline suggests `niche or harvest`. Lacks
strength in remaining demand pockets and an industry structure that is favorable to decline
recommends `harvest or divest`. Lacks strength in remaining demand pockets and an industry
structure that is unfavorable to decline advocates `divest quickly`. Careful investigation of the
industry and the company-related strengths and weaknesses is necessary to find out the
appropriate strategy.
How can organizations support the process of learning?
Organizations can foster employee development by supporting a portfolio of competencies
and capabilities which improve competitiveness of a company. The literature interchanges the
terms `competencies` and `capabilities` (Grant, 1995) and regularly uses `competences` to
indicate individual skills and `core competences` on organizational level. Training and
development processes trigger learning capabilities and enable surviving or even thriving.
Schultz highlights the rate on return on investment in human capital to have surpassed the rate
of return on physical capital by pointing at the time factor: `The central issue is the increase in
the economic value of human time …The most important achievement of modern economic
growth is undoubtedly this increase in the stock of human capital` (Schultz, 1981, pp.60-1).
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The role of human resource management in its wider definition `concerns all management
decisions and actions that affect the relationship between an organization and its members`,
thus human resources management (HRM)deals with all situations and facts that directly
relate to persons who have to achieve results through the efforts of other people (OUBS,
2001, p.6). The main areas of HRM are human resource flow, performance management,
work design and employee involvement. Thus, in context with declining industries, work
design seems to sometimes switch from one extreme to another, or to mix up: today most
organizations deal with both control-based work systems and commitment-based work
systems (based on Beer et al., 1985, p.583). Close control on one hand with frequent
monitoring staff and tightly specified tasks faces growing staff commitment to goals that need
to be clearly understood. Organizations may enjoy two dimensions of culture – Goffee and
Jones (1996) suggest sociability with importance on social relationships, and solidarity with a
strong concern on performance and achievement on goals. There is no evidence whether in
crises sociability or solidarity is the pattern to succeed. Focusing on short-term results, one
can assume that the concept of solidarity should be preferred. However, stressing long-term
employee satisfaction, sociability counts as an important value.
The individual
Provision of services is central to organizational success, thus labor quality gains in
importance. The starting point for individual learning processes assumes that people are not
cost factors or even cost drivers, but wealth increasers who add value to the company. Thus,
there is a need to bring staff up to a state-of-the-art level and to keep them there. Costs need to
be compared to probable outcomes of improved skills. High rates of unemployed people
usually trigger the need for individually paid advanced learning, a fact that disburdens
companies. More trained and better educated supply of young staff with usually low wages
often threatens longtime staff, so further education can turn out as economically unprofitable
due to remaining time until retirement. But, there is evidence that experience of many years
combined with current knowledge can boost revenues and trigger both individual and
organizational learning. Today, in most parts of the world, individuals expect employers to
care for training opportunities, for example `certification based on the achievement of agreed
standards, rather than forms of time serving, flexible training suited to the needs and
circumstances of the individual, access to training unrestricted by sex, age and length of
service, recognition of training by employers and other labour market institutions such as
trade unions, broadly based initial training for young people, … provision of opportunities for
training and further education throughout their working life to enable people to adapt to
changes in employment patterns` as Lindley (1991) suggests. These considerations on one
hand focus more on general than specific training and are concerned with mobility in case of
redundancy, and on the other hand relate to occupational instead of internal labor markets. At
large, individuals try to achieve more general, transferable skills to gain more independence
on both internal and external labor markets. Explicit knowledge can be identified and copied
as it occurs, but tacit knowledge is more difficult to recognize and duplicate – tacit knowledge
often works as a basis for core competence for the company. Thus, the types of skills and how
they are acquired are worth analyzing. Nordhaug (1993) differentiated six categories: first,
meta-competences as literacy, creativity and negotiation skills are important at all
organizational level, and especially for management tasks. Second, industry competences do
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not concern only one firm in an industry, but knowledge of the industry`s history or
knowledge about key persons and networks. Third, intra-organizational competences relating
to organization-specific issues as knowledge about colleagues and knowledge about the firm`s
strategy and goals are tied to organizational culture of the firm. Fourth, standard technical
competences as computing skills, knowledge of accounting and budgeting principles can
usually be developed by the educational system or in-house training systems. Fifth, technical
trade competences are task-and industry-specific, for example skills in assembling computers
– these skills are not specific to the organization and are usually trained and developed
through vocational educational programs. Sixth, unique competences are firm-and taskspecific and are usually generated within an organization, for example skills in operating
specialized filing or data systems. Nordhaug`s six dimensions of competences are attracting
attention concerning both practical and theoretical relevance, and stress task-specific
competences to generate an optimum match between work tasks and competences. Due to
increasing pace of change, more attention should be given to non-specific competences to
enable firms to adapt to quickly changing external conditions. In case task-specific
competences become obsolete or are in danger of being extinct by time, technology or
changing demand. Whereas one hundred years ago individuals experienced most training in
their youth, there is still a negative correlation between age and training, but the pattern is
modifying. Due to increased complexity, faster information processing and upcoming new
technologies employees recognize the need to learn. Apart from work-related competences
the approach to behavioral characteristics of employees has been pushed forward by Richard
Boyatzis groundbreaking work (1982). He identified 21 behavioral parameters and clustered
them into five groups – goals and action management, leadership, human resource
management, directing subordinates, and focus on others. These groups demonstrate skills
that do not only relate to a company, a branch or an industry, but can be used manifold.
Daniel Goleman (1995) popularized `emotional intelligence` as a bundle of concepts
consisting of self-management, self-awareness, social awareness and social skills. Both
Boyatzis and Goleman argued that their identified skills are a prerequisite for success in
leadership. Measurement and assessment of interpersonal skills turn out to be problematic,
and development and training of these skills depend on specific contexts. Change, too,
requires new types of competences.
The organization
Many organizations provide short-term supply of training opportunities and lack a policy. The
question of `making or buying` occurs and touches the socially responsibility of companies in
terms of training and education. Should a company invest into human capital or just search for
educated and skilled staff on external labor markets to save money? Lifetime employment is
not usual today, and the return of investment need to be scrutinized. Larsen explains Human
Resources activities to concentrate on training and development due to three reasons: first,
substantial transaction costs of operating in external labor markets, second, employees expect
training as part of the psychological contract with the company as a basic condition for longterm loyalty, and third, both general and specific skills need to be trained to fit into internal
and possibly external labor markets (Larsen, 1994). Hamel and Prahalad introduced the term
`core competences` in strategic organizational theory grounding on the resource-based view
(RBV) of the firm (Hamel and Prahalad, 1994). The RBV identifies `distinctive competence`
which may emerge from individual or team organization, and knowledge, technology or
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market preferences as a source of exploitation and profitability. Core competence represents
an asset on the balance sheet, and is defined as a `bundle of skills and technologies rather than
a single discrete skill or technology` (Hamel and Prahalad, 1994: 202-3), it `represents the
sum of learning across individual skill sets and individual organisational units` (op.cit. p.203),
and `the dividing line between a particular skill and the core competence to which it
contributes may be difficult to define` (op.cit., p.203). An attempt to make a difference in
results is to manage resources effectively. Creating core competences appears as a means to
deal with both people and systems to gain competitive advantage. Nordhaug and Grunhaug
(1994) define competence at the individual level as an underlying characteristic of a person
which results in efficient work performance and in context with work consist of knowledge,
aptitude and skill. The `[i]ndividuals` skills and capabilities can be assessed from their job
performance, from their experience, and from their qualifications` (Grant, 1995: 125). These
indicators of a person`s actual potential are usually not easy to observe and require time, and
the contribution of a person to overall team or corporate performance cannot always be
measured accurately. Labor markets and individual career performance differ between
industries, as Sonnenfeld et al. (1988) discovered. They clustered four groups: first,
academies, which are firms with internal labor markets, reward systems based on individual
contribution, low turnover, staff development, barriers to the exit of labor, for example
pharmaceutical firms and electronics manufacturers. Second, clubs do also have internal labor
markets, but group factors count more than individual contribution, seniority is priority – such
industries embrace government and the military, for example. Third, baseball teams are open
to external labor markets, and the human resource function is to keep the company fully
staffed – usually people identify more with their profession than with the company, e.g.
industries include medicine, consulting and entertainment. Fourth, fortresses are companies
which struggle for survival - they cannot afford to care for individuals and thus group interests
dominate, for example textile industry and retailing. Organization size is one factor that
influences the aforementioned clusters, with small firms supposed to be less engaged with
development of staff than bigger ones. Hall (1984) provides a categorization of four outcomes
of development which define much of career effectiveness – these are performance, attitudes,
adaptability and identity. Hall relates them to strategies for achieving these outcomes, the
three main ones are cognitive – focusing on different thoughts and ideas, behavioral –
attempting to influence behavior directly, and environmental – changing the work
environment of staff. For example: training objectives and methods after Hall concerning
identity and cognitive strategy can be self-assessment or a seminar for personal interests,
concerning identity and behavioral strategy can be assessment centers or career counseling,
and concerning identity and environmental strategy can be job autonomy or technical ladder.
Usually some of the offered training objectives and methods attract staff and some do not fit
into expected supply. Besides wanted seminars and learning opportunities changes and
developments in the external environments require assimilation of knowledge and skills to
keep up with standards.
The state
Thomson et al. (1998) differentiate between formal and informal development methods.
Formal methods mainly occur as off-the-job, and informal methods usually are on-the-job.
Strassman (1985) found out that formal approaches do not meet with universal favor, sending
employees to classes seems to be the most expensive and least effective way of learning.
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Porter`s seminal analysis concerning competitive advantages of nations stresses public
educational systems, e.g. German public educational systems … `is rigorous and of high
quality … supports the ability to produce goods of rising quality and sophistication` (Porter,
1990:368-9). Generally spoken, the State should cover three areas of concern – pre-vocational
education, correction of market failures, and creating a system of observing national
education in a wider and macro-economic context. The role of the state stretches from earliest
education up to the time shortly before retirement. But, as the state often plays an indifferent
role, it cannot align supply and demand as markets can. The question occurs, whether the state
in general should care. Yes, it should, as markets, for example free markets, often are unable
to balance different and conflicting learning situations.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that the pace of change increases by time. Complexity grows and the supply
of information needs to be handled. With the upcoming Internet during the mid-nineties of the
last century, information overload is sometimes felt by employees. Today, customers usually
are better informed than before the times of the Internet. Open access to consumer protection,
information about products and services, and a generally more critical attitude towards supply
trigger better service, appropriate information and more service of companies. Control of
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information and behavior of staff is more necessary than before. Tannenbaum equates control
with influencing, affecting or shaping the behavior of another person, when he defines control
as `any process in which a person or group of persons determines, that is, intentionally affects,
what another person or group will do` (Tannenbaum, 1962). Conformity with internal policies
keeps a company in the intended direction. The control process typically starts with
establishing standards of performance, measuring performance, comparing targets and actual
business results, and taking corrective action. The challenges are adjusting standards,
adjusting performance, and taking the right corrective actions. Staff may mourn, that they are
controlled tightly, and at product or process level, company level or industry level controls
did not work effectively. Therefore they need to suffer inconveniences of different kinds.
Management control is messy and linked to social expectations of employees. Management
control embraces direct supervision, technical controls, administrative controls, and self and
social controls (cf. OUBS, 2002, p.16-7). Fast-dying industries need a concept of intensified
control to prevent acceleration of economic downturn, or to initiate acceleration respectively.
Booming businesses are more and more short-lived adventures, they rapidly suffer becoming
obsolete or extinct. The process of declining industries introduced in the Trends E-Magazine
(2008, July) reflect phenomenon of `cocooning` in the Western world – people enjoy cozy
homes with many forms of convenience and comfort around them. With this trend, modern
technologies support living lives as singles or with only few people at home. Thus, with
declining industries others emerge. Companies need to anticipate future trends and align
resources to be prepared. The problems I see deal with those employees who have not learned
to learn. People, who can not quickly adapt their intellectual skills to new situations, often
suffer to be sorted out. Younger staff usually is adequately trained or easier to train, and
wages are lower. But, big companies – so-called `blue chips` in financial terms –
acknowledge diversity and usually do not only allow senior employees to train and get
trained, but encourage them to take part in keeping pace with permanently changing
environments. Declining industries are risky for those who need a secure basis to plan
financially. Sophisticated scoring systems support decision-making in banks, and thus, if
some industries decline, employees suffer some barriers to gain loans. Declining industries
foster the need to keep up with profession-related skills, but they do not support loyalty to
firms, as I think. Fragmented work processes even hinder persons to see their work fully –
here management needs to take action and care for appropriate support. In my opinion the
process of learning is accelerated by declining industries and at the same time insecurity is
constantly growing. Thus, pace of change increases, and individuals, companies and public
institutions need to permanently check the appropriateness of competences of people.
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