Local Milieu and Innovations: Some Empirical Results Daniel Shefer and Amnon Frenkel Center for Urban and Regional Studies, Technion - Israel institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel Tel: 972-4-8294001, Fax: 972-4-8226729 shefer@tx.technion.ac.il The Annals of Regional Science, No. 1, pp. 185-200 Abstract Industrial innovations constitute a major factor in fostering the expansion of industrial activities and, consequently, regional growth. Innovations are closely tied to variables both internal and external to the structure and operation of the firm. The latter variables have hardly ever been investigated empirically. The current study utilizes data collected by means of a thorough personal interview of all firms belonging to the three fastest-growing industries in Israel: Electronics, Plastics and Metals. All the firms are located in the Northern region of Israel and cover three different sub-regions: metropolitan core, intermediate zone and periphery. The paper reports an attempt to identify and quantify external factors clustered under the term, “local innovation milieu,” and to analyze their effect on the rate of industrial innovation. More specifically, the present study describes the construction of alternative measures of industrial agglomeration economies and their effect on the probability of a firm’s belonging to different industrial branches when it comes to innovation. The results show that the size of the industry, as measured by the total number of employees, is the best explanatory measure of agglomeration economies in a particular sub-region. Agglomeration economies are significantly responsible for the increase in the rate of a firm’s innovation potential in the Electronics industry. In the Plastics industry, however, no significant effect of agglomeration economies on the rate of innovation is detected; and in the Metals industry, only a marginal effect is felt. This research was partially supported by the Technion Vice-President’s Fund 2 Introduction Uneven distribution of resources over space, imperfect mobility, indivisibility of production factors and the need to economize on scarce resources all induce the concentration of economic activity at discrete and selected points. Consequently, variations exist among regions. These variations manifest themselves in the levels of the population’s economic and social well-being in the various regions. In order to reduce disparities among regions, government agencies devise policies and initiate programs whose main objectives are to increase employment level, per capita income, and in general the rate of economic growth in peripheral regions. Different regions offer different opportunities for specialization; thus, when these opportunities are exploited, they may add to the aggregate income and well-being of the region. It is therefore necessary first to identify these opportunities, and then to devise policies that will advance the declared objectives. Since entrepreneurs strive to maximize profits, they are motivated to invest in regions where the greatest profits can be attained, given some pre-spectified level of probability of the risk involved owing to uncertainties. Profit will be maximized in regions where there is comparatively higher productivity of inputs like labor, capital, and efficiency of transport and other communication systems. The role of information and knowledge in the process of technological change and the diffusion of innovation cannot be over-emphasized. Advanced means of communication serve as a vehicle for disseminating knowledge over space. Thus, the spatial diffusion of innovation is contingent upon the rapid and accurate transmission of knowledge and the ability to interact efficiently in different locations. The element of space can be overcome appreciably with adequate means of communication. Therefore, advanced means of communication are a necessary component in the process of diffusion of innovation, and hence in regional development and economic growth, (Shefer and Bar-El, 1993). Innovation and Economic Growth 3 In recent years researchers have become increasingly aware of the role of technological innovation and the impact of its diffusion processes on regional development and growth. This growing interest has resulted from the interrelationship of innovation, competitiveness, and economic growth (Schmookler 1966; Rosenberg, 1972, 1976, 1994; Nelson and Winter, 1982; Freeman, 1974, 1990; Freeman et al., 1982; Jorgenson, 1996; Grossman and Helpman, 1990a, 1990b, 1991a, 1991b, 1994; Romer, 1990, 1994; Bertuglia et al., 1995; Nijkamp and Poot, 1996; Bertuglia et al., 1997). The contribution of innovation to regional growth has been widely discussed in the literature (Davelaar, 1991; Feldman, 1994; Feldman and Kutay, 1997; Davelaar and Nijkamp, 1997; Frenkel and Shefer, 1997). Regional development, as a location where technological innovation takes place, is usually accompanied by new economic activities, market expansion, and technological adaptation. Regions with a high level of innovation have become a destination for highly skilled labor and an impetus for improved educational infrastructures (Lucas, 1988). From a technological point of view, advanced economic activities tend to possess a high market value, resulting in a competitive advantage at least during the first stage of the diffusion process. Thus, these activities provide new and at times unique opportunities for the development of firms, the expansion of their market share, profitability and employment growth. Therefore, we hypothesized that, compared to other regions, those characterized by a high level of technological innovation will show a greater acceleration of economic growth (Grossman and Helpman 1990a, 1991b, 1994; Krugman, 1979, 1991, 1995; Stokey, 1995). Most rigorous location-analysis is based on a short-run analysis in which plants, supply sources and markets are given. In such locational problems, one can identify constraints like capacity of plants, rate of supply of resources and the quantity of market demand for the product. If one is willing to assume that production and transport activities can be characterized by constant technological coefficients, then linear activity analysis can be used as a tool for solving short-run locational problems (Beckmann and Marschak, 1955). The long-run locational problem, however, appears to be more complicated by far, since it must cope with such serious 4 difficulties as how to incorporate into the analysis economies of scale, external economies of industrial localization and urban concentration. There are two major groups of variables that are likely to affect the rate of innovation of firms. The first group is internal, and the second external to the firm (Davelaar and Nijkamp, 1989; Harrison et al 1996). In the first group of variable, the following characteristics can be identified: size, age, ownership type, location, type of industry to which the firm belongs and the extent of R & D activities taking place in the firm. R & D activities can be measured either by the number of employees engaged in that activity or by the total expenditure allocated to it. The impact of the internal variables on the rate of a firm’s innovation is analyzed in a sequential forthcoming paper. The present paper will present the effect of the external variables on the firm’s rate of innovation. These external variables create the local innovation milieu or the innovative environment conducive to innovation. These include the rate of local innovation, the degree of cooperation and collaboration among firms and the degree of economies of localization and agglomeration. The local innovative milieu is perceived as enhancing the innovative capability of firms. It is considered a cost-reducing agent/factor that diminishes uncertainty and increases production efficiencies (Camagni, 1991; Kleinknecht and Poot, 1992). One methodological framework for analyzing local milieu, proposed by Camagni 1995 (as adapted from Maillat et al., 1991), is depicted in the two-dimensional diagram in Figure 1. The vertical axis represents the degree of local innovativeness (i.e., the rate of innovations in a specific locality), and the horizontal axis measures the local synergies, (i.e. the degree of socio-economic interactions among firms located in close proximity to one another). Our empirical analysis will make use of this methodological framework. 5 Source: Adapted from Millat et.al 1991 Figure 1: Mapping Sub-areas Innovative Milieu 6 Agglomeration and Localization Economies There are ample theoretical and empirical studies that demonstrate the effect of agglomeration economies on production efficiency (see, for example, Shefer, 1973; Richardson, 1974, 1995; Sveikauskas, 1975; Segal, 1976; Carlino, 1979, 1982; Nakamura, 1985; Sveikauskas et,al., 1988; Henderson, 1986, 1988; Giersch 1995, Harrison et al., 1996; Matello, 1997). Indeed modern location theory posits the significant role that agglomeration and localization economies play in explaining the growth of cities. These form the hubs which generate new ideas and technological progress. Agglomeration economies, localization economies, (measured by the size of the industry in a given location) and the economies of scale of the single firm are the principle forces that foster the continuous concentration of people and economic activities in some selected points in space. Agglomeration economies, though, are not a very tangible concept, since it encompasses several loosely defined factors. It can be measured by the number of employees in a particular industry (localization economies) or by the total number of employees in all manufacturing industries and/or the service industry. A good surrogate for urban agglomeration could also be the total number of people residing in a given locality (Moomaw, 1983; see also Moomaw, 1981, and Dieperink and Nijkamp, 1988a and 1988b). Spatial Diffusion of Innovation Technology diffusion is a complex process, involving changes in the behavior of economic agents. Several studies have emphasized the great importance of the technology-diffusion process for market development; nevertheless, it is surprising to find that only a few policies are designed to foster this process. The expected societal return on new technology without the diffusion process will be insignificant. The diffusion process may be understood by integrating three basic elements: companies, environment and technology (Camagni, 1991). The integration of these three elements creates the early necessary conditions for adopting innovation. 7 A common distinction made in studies of technological innovation diffusion relates to the division between product innovation and process innovation in the regional context (Davelaar, 1991). Development regions are able to adopt technologies associated with production processes; however, they may face severe difficulties in adopting advanced product innovation. Process innovation usually can be bought “off the shelf” on the open market. Product innovation, on the other hand, is not as readily available. The reason is that innovation is the means by which a firm can maintain a competitive advantage over its rivairies. Therefore, product innovation is less transferable in terms of diffusion (Oakey, 1984; Oakey et al., 1980; Thwaites, et al., 1981; Alderman, 1990; Alderman and Fischer, 1992; Alderman,et al., 1988). Innovation transfer involves a component of risk or uncertainty. The importance of information lies, among other things, in its ability to reduce uncertainty. Greater importance must be placed on the uncertainty component as it pertains to innovation activity than is presently afforded it by popular economic models. Uncertainty is concerned not only with the lack of information regarding the exact income and expenditures associated with the various alternatives, but most often with the limited knowledge of the nature of the alternatives (Freeman et al., 1982; Nelson and Winter, 1982). Dosi (1988) believes that a distinction should be made between uncertainty expressed in terms of partial information about the occurrence of known events and what is termed “strong uncertainty.” The latter exists when a set of possible events is unknown, and therefore it is impossible to determine the results of the specific activities of each given occurrence. Innovation is characterized in most cases by strong uncertainty. We can presume that in space a greater amount of uncertainty and limited bits of information are being transmitted to locations at a distance from the concentration of people and economic activities - the metropolis. Thus, we can hypothesize that the diffusion of innovation in space follows the process depicted in Figure 2 panel a, 8 below. There are two major processes that may be distinguished: the first is the movement from the center to the boundaries, or the periphery (suburbs), of the metropolitan area; the second is the strong connection, in spite of the distance separating them, between centers of activities - metropolitan areas. This affinity between centers skip intermediate areas, which could be considered peripherial to the metropolis. We hypothesized that the spatial diffusion of innovation, from the center to the periphery, follows the pattern depicted in Figure 2 panel b. The figure portrays a sequential process that gradually declines in intensity from the heart of the metropolis outward. Given these diffusion processes, we would expect that the rate of innovation will follow similar spatial patterns; that is, a gradual decline in the rate of innovation as one proceeds from the center toward the periphery. As for the difference in spatial variation that may exist between product and process innovation, we hypothesized that the spatial pattern would vary as depicted in Figure 3. The following empirical analysis will make use of some of the concepts and principles discussed above and concentrate specifically on the product innovation processes. Data Source The data for the empirical analysis was collected from a random sample of 211 firms belonging to the following three fastest-growing industries in Israel: Electronics, Plastics and Metals. 9 Figure 2: The spetial Diffusion of Innovation Between Cores and from the Core to the Periphery 10 Figure 3: Hypothetical Distribution of Spatial Probability of Produce and Process Innovation 15 The distribution of the firms in the sample by industry type and geographical location is depicted in Tables 1a, 1b and 1c. These firms are located in the northern part of Israel. In 1994, some 1.4 M people, constituting about 26% of the population of Israel, resided in the northern region, which extends for some 5,000 sq. km., or 23% of the total land area of the state of Israel. In the past five years, the population growth rate was very high, almost 12%, mainly because of the big immigration from the former Soviet Union. The northern part of Israel is an area where all three types of zones -- Center, intermediate and periphery -- are represented (see Map 1): a) the core zone comprises the Haifa Metropolitan area; b) the intermediate zones - comprise the areas surrounding the Core zone on the fringe of the metropolitan area, but within an acceptable commuting distance. Not too long ago, this latter zone was considered peripheral; but in recent years, the population growth that took place in the core zone ‘spilled over’ into the intermediate areas, bringing about a change in these areas in so far as population growth rate and regional functionality. The northern intermediate areas consist of the central and western Galilee; c) The peripheral zones comprise the lagging areas of the northern region. These areas are removed from metropolitan influence and are not within an acceptable commuting distance. They exhibit most of the characteristics of a classic peripheral zone, including fewer employment opportunities and fewer social as well as commercial services. These areas include the Golan Heights, Eastern Galilee and the Jordan Valley, from Metula and Kiriyat Shmona in the north to Beit She’an in the south-east. 16 In addition to the major zonal subdivisions, each of the latter two zones were further divided into sub-areas (b, c, d, e of the intermediate zone and f, g, h of the peripherial area) (see Map 1). Table 1a: Sample Disribution by Location Zone Type Total number of firms in the region N % Total number of firms in the sample N % Sample of total firms (in %) Core (metropolitan) Intermediate 85 28.8 66 31.3 77.6 142 48.1 82 38.9 57.7 Peripheral 68 23.1 63 29.9 92.6 Total 295 100.0 211 100.0 71.5 Table 1b: Sample Distribution by Industrial Branch Industrial Branch Total number of firms in the industry Total number of firms in the sample Sample of total firms (in %) N % N % 119 40.3 86 40.8 72.2 105 35.6 80 37.9 76.2 Metals 71 24.1 45 21.3 63.3 Total 295 100.0 211 100.0 71.5 Electronics/ Optics Plastics Table 1c: Sample Distribution by Industrial Branch and Location Metropolitan Intermediate Peripheral Total Electronics 36 34 16 86 Plastics 15 29 36 80 17 Metals 15 19 11 45 Total 66 82 63 211 18 Map 1: Major Area Division of the Israeli Northern Region LEGEND City Main Road SYRIA LEBANON Sub-region border QIRYAT SHEMONA Metropolitan Region Intermediate Region Peripherial Region N f MA'ALOT-TARSHIHA NAHARIYYA HAZOR b AKKO ZEFAT KARMI'EL MEDITERRANEAN SEA c HAIFA Lake Kinneret TIBERIAS a g NAZARETH d NAZERAT ILLIT MIGDAL HAEMEQ e AFULA JORDAN h BET SHE'AN a=Metropolitan b=North-west intermediate c= North-east intermediate d=Central intermediate e=Southern intermediate f=North-east periphery g= Central periphery h= Southern periphery 19 Results of the Empirical Analyses In order to map the local milieu of each of the sub-areas, we constructed two required indices: local innovativeness and local synergies (as suggested by Camagni, 1995). The index of local innovativness was constructed relative to the average innovativness of the firms included in the sample for each of the eight sub-areas. The normalized weighted index of a sub-area takes into account the degree of innovation found in each plant as measured on six-level (from radical innovation to minor innovation) and for both product and process innovations. The six levels were constructed on a negative exponential function so as to express the non-linear effort needed to move the firm from a lower to a higher level of local innovativeness. The index of local synergies expresses the degree of collaboration, weather local, national, or international, engaged in by plants. The collaboration could be with similar firms, related firms, R&D centers, and/or academic institutions. The degree of collaboration was constructed independently for each of the eight sub-areas. These were subsequently ranked on a normalized scale ranging from 1 to 10, where the average degree of collaboration was marked as the mid-point on the scale of the local synergies axis. Subsequently, each sub-area, with its two constructed indices, was plotted on the two dimensional diagram in Figure 4. As may be seen only area a, the metropolitan area, falls in the innovation milieu quadrant. Sub-areas d and c fall in the innovation without milieu quadrant, and subareas f and h in the potentially milieu quadrant. The rest of the sub-areas are found in the no innovation, no milieu quadrant. By and large, the results obtained follow common-sense intuitions. It is difficult at this point, however, to suggest policies that could augment the relative position of each of the sub-areas identified in order to move them into the innovation milieu quadrant. 20 Index of Local Innovativeness High Innovation without milieu Innovative milieu a d c Region Average f e b No innovation, no milieu g h Potential milieu Low Region Average Low High Index of Local Synergies a=Metropolitan e=Southern intermediate b=North-west intermediate f=North-east periphery c= North-east intermediate g= Central periphery d=Central intermediate h= Southern periphery Figure 4: Local Milieu of Each Sub-Area The next empirical test was to examine the effect of localization economies on the level of probability of innovation for each of the designated sub-areas and, independently, for each of the identified industrial brunches. In Figure 5, panels a, b and c, the computed relative probabilities of innovation of each sub-area are represented as a function of localization as measured by the squared total number of employee in the industry concerned. In all three identified industrial branches, the innovation probabilities in the metropolitan area are greater than in any other sub-area. This differentiation is 21 particularly striking in the electronics industry, where the innovation is the highest of the three industries. It is quite apparent that agglomeration affects, but very marginally, the innovation probabilities of the plastics and metals industries. These findings corroborate the results obtained by descriptive statistical analysis. Finally Table 2 presents the results obtained by multivariate logit models. In those analyses, we divided the sample into two distinct groups of firms. The first group included all the firms belonging to the Electronics industry, or high-tech, and the second group, all firms belonging to the more traditional industries - Plastics and Metals, or low-tech. This division derives from the previous analysis, in which it was apparent that the rate of innovation for these two groups of firms differs significantly. Also, the previous analysis indicated that the effect of agglomeration economies on the probability of innovation is positive and statistically significant in the Electronics industry, and quite insignificant in the Plastics and Metals industries. The independent variable in these model is the binary-choice variable; i.e., whether the firm innovates or not. Two models were tested independently for each of the two groups of firms. The first run measured agglomeration economies by the total number of employees in the service industries; the second run measured localization economies by the total number of employees in the industry concerned. As can be seen in the results obtained for the two models, internal R & D and skilled labor force affect the rate of innovation positively and significantly. Young firms are more likely to innovate in the Electronics industry. This variable, though, has no significant effect on the group of firms belonging to the low-tech industries. Size of firms, on the other hand, has a positive and significant effect on the rate of innovation in the low-tech industries. As for the agglomeration - localization economies variables, both measures appear to affect the rate of innovation in the high-tech industries positively and significantly, but have a much less pronounced effect on low-tech industries; furthermore, the direction is negative (although it is statistically not very significant). 16 Prob. of Innovation a. Electronics 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 g 0.6h f 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 a e b c d 5000 10000 15000 Index of Localization 20000 25000 Prob. of Innovation b. Plastics 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 c hf 0 a gd b e 1000 2000 3000 4000 Index of Localization 5000 6000 7000 Prob. of innovation c. Metals 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 h c 0.4 g 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 a d eb f 1000 2000 3000 4000 Index of Localization 5000 6000 7000 a=Metropolitan e=Southern intermediate b=North-west intermediate f=North-east periphery c= North-east intermediate g= Central periphery d=Central intermediate h= Southern periphery Figure 5: Localization and Innovation Probabilities by Industrial Branch 17 Table 2: LOGIT Model Results - An Evaluation of the Probability of Developing New Products (t-value in brackets) Independent I. High-tech Industries II. Traditional Industries Variable Model A1 Model A2 Model B1 Model B2 Constant -4.929 (-3.14)* -4.787 (-3.15)* -3.904 (-4.65)* -3.755 (-4.43)* Internal R&D (yes = 1) 3.156 (3.36)* 3.028 (3.39)* 3.740 (4.70)* 3.785 (4.72)* Skill Labor Force (High = 1) 2.953 (2.79)* 2.850 (2.79)* 1.541 (2.81)* 1.569 (2.83)* Age of Firms (Young = 1) 2.549 (2.11)* 2.303 (2.00)* -1.501 (-1.77)** -1.531 (-1.77)** Size of Firms (Large = 1) 1.947 (1.84)** 1.803 (1.77)** 1.173 (1.96)* 1.199 (1.99)* Agglomeration of Services 1.72E-03 (2.25)* ____ -0.92E-03 (-1.65) ____ Index of Localization ____ 0.84E-07 (2.09)* ____ -2.13E-07 (-1.85)** N Initial Likelihood Final Likelihood p2 p2 82 82 122 122 -56.84 -25.86 0.55 0.48 -56.84 -26.47 0.53 0.47 -84.56 -45.73 0.46 0.44 -84.56 -45.34 0.46 0.45 * Significant at p<0.05 ** Significant at p<0.10 (1) Dummy variable, reference group in parentheses 18 Conclusion Our analyses revealed that significant variations exist between the effect of agglomeration and localization economies, however defined, on the rate of innovation in different industries. The Electronics industry is positively and significantly affected by the high concentration of people and economic activity. The rate of innovation in this industry is rapidly increasing with the prevalence of agglomeration. Agglomeration economies, on the other hand, do not affect the rate of innovation in low-tech industries. Consistent results were obtained in the various empirical analyses. One obvious conclusion that we can draw from this analysis is that it would be counter-productive to push Electronics firms away from the core. Such a policy would concomitantly diminish the rate of innovation in those firms. On the other hand, the rate of innovation in firms belonging to the Plastics and Metals industries will be only marginally and insignificantly affected by a move from the core toward the intermediate and peripherial zones. 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