For Official Use STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 24-Sep-2003 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________ English - Or. French STATISTICS DIRECTORATE STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 For Official Use Cancels & replaces the same document of 18 September 2003 National Accounts and Economic Statistics - Financial Accounts NOTE ON THE METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING A MORE PRECISE CLASSIFICATION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH By André Babeau, Honorary Professor, Dauphine University and European Savings Institute (OEE) OECD Working Party on Financial Statistics Château de la Muette, Paris 6-7 October 2003 Room 2 Beginning at 9:30 on the first day English - Or. French JT00149951 Traduction n° 19731 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 NOTE ON THE METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING A MORE PRECISE CLASSIFICATION OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL ASSETS At the meeting of OECD National Accounts Experts on 8-11 October 2002, the results of a study of household assets in the broad sense (S14+S15), involving a classification for financial assets somewhat different from that used, for example, in SNA 1993/ESA 19951. The October 2002 report illustrated this use of a somewhat more precise classification of financial assets by comparing the composition of household wealth in Europe (six countries), the United States and Japan2. It was an interim report which, given the frequent absence of sufficiently detailed information, often relied on estimates. Before applying such a classification more generally, one should first, of course, consider whether it is appropriate and feasible. 1. Appropriateness of a more detailed classification of financial assets than those normally used 1. In the European System of Accounts, the current classification of financial operations and financial assets and liabilities is primarily based on the degree of liquidity and the legal characteristics of financial assets3. It is independent of the classification of institutional units with which it is, however, often crossed. The risk of the asset in question, moreover, seems to have a broadly “orthogonal” dimension in relation to its liquidity and even in relation to its legal nature. 2. Thus the varying degree of risk attached to household financial investment is not directly taken into account in this classification. In recent years, however, this dimension has assumed greater importance, both during the strong rise in share prices during the period 1997-2000 as in the period 20002002 which was marked, as we know, by a sharp downturn in the indexes. 3. Knowing who, at a given time in an economy, bears the risks on their financial assets and what is the precise nature of the risks borne by each will, during the coming decades, take centre stage in economic and political thinking. In a context of markets tending towards increased volatility, the various risks borne by financial assets will certainly not diminish and it is very important to know precisely how these risks are shared between the different sectors of the economy. It has often been remarked, of course, that the numerous financial innovations which have emerged, especially during the last decade, make it very hard sometimes – for example in the case of "securitisation" of debt – to “pinpoint” precisely who is bearing a certain type of risk. This difficulty cannot be denied, but it does not, however, prevent one from making considerable progress in ascertaining the distribution of risks across the economy as a whole, even if here and there one inevitably encounters problems which really are very difficult to solve. 1 System of National Accounts, SNA 1993, EC/IMF/OECD/UN/WB, New York, 1993, 711 pages / European system of accounts, ESA 1995, EUROSTAT, Luxembourg, 1996, 383 pages. 2 Household Wealth in the National Accounts of Europe, the United States and Japan, paper prepared by André Babeau (European Savings Institute) and Teresa Sbano (Pioneer Investments), 36 pages. 3 SNA 1993, op.cit., page 251, 11.53 / ESA 1995, op.cit., page 95, 5.20. The present note has also been prepared with the support of Pioneer Investments. 2 STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 2. The proposed classification 4. This classification “slots in” to the various headings of the SNA 1993/ESA 1995 classification and does not require them to change in any way. It is just a matter, at various levels, of introducing additional distinctions to allow a better analysis of the risks borne by the sector concerned. The proposals set out below were made from the perspective of “households”, and their significance and appropriateness from the point of view of other sectors of the national economy would still need to be tested. This question to some extent overlaps that of the “feasibility” of this classification (see below) since the information required to go into greater detail will only actually be available if the distinctions required make sense for sectors of the economy other than households (in particular the financial companies in sector 12, and even more specifically those in sectors 123, 124 and 125). 5. The extensions of the classification proposed concern only headings F5 (Shares and other equity) and F6 (Insurance technical reserves) in the SNA 1993/ESA classification. 6. In the table below, the proposed extension of the classification of financial assets are underlined. Before describing them, it could be noted that the breakdown of F51 into three lines, Quoted shares, Unquoted shares and Other equity can often cause serious problems in national published accounts. Sometimes the breakdown is not provided. When it is, some amounts seem barely plausible. In short, the use of this breakdown is very frequently difficult. But this is not a problem of classification, but more directly a problem of the quality of information available to provide figures for the various headings. As this point is the subject of current reflection, we will not deal with these problems directly. Table 1: Proposed extensions of the SNA 1993/ESA 1995 classification Classification of financial transactions Code level 1 Code level 2 Code level 3 Code level 4 Shares and other equity F.5 Shares and other Equity(excl.MFS) F.51 Quoted shares F.511 Unquoted shares F.512 Other equity F.513 Mutual fund shares F.52 Money market funds F.521 Equity funds et assim. F.522 Bond funds et assim. F.523 Hybrid funds F.524 Insurance technical reserves F.6 Net equity of households in life insurance reserves and in pension funds reserves F.61 Life insurance reserves F.611 Unit linked vehicles F.6111 Non unit linked vehicles F.6112 Pension funds reserves F.612 Defined contribution funds F.6121 Defined benefit funds F.6122 Prepayments of insurance premiums and reserves for outstanding claims F62 3 STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 7. The proposed breakdown of F.52, Mutual fund shares, consists of four headings. This type of breakdown is already practised to varying degrees in some countries. The identification of Money market funds, which are risk free, does not raise any particular problems. On the other hand, the dividing line between Equity funds and Bond funds is probably harder to define. Moreover, one can maintain that Bond funds also bear not inconsiderable risks (not only exchange rate risk, but also risk of default). It has to be admitted, however, that the risk attached to Equity funds is greater. But where does one put “guaranteed” funds? On the side of Equity funds because shares are often the main underlying asset or on the side of Bond funds because the risk is lower. Lastly, in the case of Hybrid funds, one can accept that the level of risk is somewhere between that of Equity funds and Bond funds. Finally, one question is not resolved by the proposals in this area: should a separate heading be created for funds invested in property? The answer should clearly be affirmative since, otherwise, one would hardly know in which type of fund to include funds mainly based on property. As regards heading F611, Net equity of households in life insurance reserves, we propose to distinguish investment vehicles between those which consist of securities (unit-linked) and those which carry a guaranteed rate (non unit-linked). We stress that it is the investment vehicles which must be distinguished and not the contracts, because one can obviously find unit-linked and non unit-linked vehicles in the same contract (the increasingly common case of so-called “multi-vehicle” contracts). In the case of unit-linked vehicles, the market is risk is clearly borne by the policyholder, while in guaranteed rate contracts, the risk is borne by the insurance company. The fact that the risk is borne by the policyholder in the case of unit-linked vehicles does not necessarily mean that the risk is very high: investing in property or bonds may involve a much lower risk than investing in quoted shares, let alone unquoted shares. Above all, in unit-linked vehicles, especially since 2002, various forms of “guaranteed funds” have made their appearance. These latter can clearly fudge the boundary between unit-linked and guaranteed-rate vehicles since, if in the former the guarantees are not in the contract, they re-appear in the vehicles. But that still does not eliminate the borderline and the distinction between unit accounts (unit-linked), guaranteed rate vehicles (non unit-linked) still seems pertinent in analysing the distribution of risks between sectors in our national economies. 8. In the case of heading F.612, Net equity of households in pension funds reserves, we propose to retain the traditional distinction between defined benefit (DB) schemes and define contribution (DC) schemes. In the case of the former, the financial risk is borne by the companies which assume these commitments4. As to the latter, the risk is very often borne by the individual. We say very often, and not always, because some define contribution schemes are in fact managed in the context of group life insurance schemes with a guaranteed rate. In that case, the financial risk is borne by the insurance company and not the policyholder. Such is the case, for example, of defined contribution pension funds in Denmark. In a country like the United States, on the other hand, defined contribution funds, which include contracts under article 401k of the Tax Code, without exception place the burden of risk on the policyholder. Neither, however, can one say that employees belonging to a defined benefit fund do not bear any kind of risk. Certain recent court decisions, indeed, suggest that as long as a retirement pension has not vested, employees may have to bear the consequences of a change in the provisions of a defined benefit pension fund. Finally, there are intermediate forms between DB and DC schemes which EUROSTAT calls “Hybrid Schemes”5 which should perhaps be given a separate heading. 9. Despite these important nuances, we still think that the distinction in financial assets between household debts in defined benefit pension funds and those in defined contribution funds is likely to help the analysis of the location of risks in our different national economies. 4 See, for example, on this point « Accounting for Occupational Pension Plans in the Main European Countries », Study on behalf of the OEE, April 2003, 80 pages. 5 EUROSTAT, Special feature on insurance and pension funds, Edition 2000, page 137. 4 STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 3. “Feasibility” of the proposed new classification 10. Naturally, the classification proposed above must be the subject of in-depth discussion among experts. However, it is worth pondering even now on its “feasibility”. Can our various countries, within a reasonable time, publish accounts containing the required details concerning collective investment funds, vehicles for life insurance contracts and occupational pension funds. 11. The answer will, of course, vary from country to country, but at first glance, without wishing to gloss over the real difficulties that exist, the prospect seems quite promising. As regards investment funds, professional bodies generally have the distinctions that we made above. In the European Union, an organisation like FEFSI has very accurate information on the performance of different types of fund. The same goes for the ICI in the United States. Some national central banks already publish a distinction, under household financial assets, between the different types of fund which is not far removed from the one suggested above. In general, however, what is most often missing is a comparison with other sectors of the national economy of the amount of the different types of fund. Often only a global comparison is available, for example, all funds compared with the “household” sector or “non-financial companies”. Initially, there is quite often a comparison of monetary funds with the different sectors, but for medium and long-term investment funds, it is often the case that no distinction is made between the various types of funds held in a particular sector. 12. Progress in this area will come, as it often does, from a dialogue between the national central banks and the professional organizations concerned. Sometimes periodic surveys conducted by central banks among depository institutions of the portfolios of different investors can provide highly valuable indications of the various types of funds held by one or the other. 13. To conclude, we should point out a distinction which quite often seems pertinent to the professionals, namely the distinction between “domestic” investment funds (ones whose registered address is in the country concerned) and “foreign” investment funds, but we do not consider that this distinction is directly relevant to the analysis of the location of risk between sectors. 14. In the case of vehicles for life insurance contracts, the distinction between the amount and flows of unit-linked vehicles and the amount and flows of guaranteed rate vehicles certainly does not currently appear in official published national accounts. However it is a distinction well known to organizations such as EUROSTAT6 or the CEA7. It is also well known in various countries by the Insurance Supervisory Authorities. In some countries, moreover, two totally separate technical accounts appear in the annual report of the supervisory authority, one concerning unit-linked vehicles and the other guaranteed rate vehicles. In addition, the European Savings Institute (OEE) carried out a survey in 20012002 among the various insurance supervisory authorities in the fifteen countries of the European Union 8. The survey shows that the majority of supervisory authorities have reliable information on turnover and the amount of provisions for both types of vehicle, “unit-linked” and “guaranteed rate”. It is also true that the authors of the report raise a real difficulty in distinguishing between insurance statistics and pension fund statistics when part of the latter are managed by insurance companies under group contracts. Here, 6 See, for example, Special feature on insurance and pension funds, EUROSTAT, Theme 4, Industry, trade and services, Edition 2000, 146 pages 7 See, for example, The European Life Insurance Market in 2001, CEA ECO, n°17, mars 2003, 58 pages. 8 Survey in the Life Insurance Sector in Europe, 1997-2000, by André Babeau, Auguste Mpacko Priso and Laurent Grillet-Aubert, OEE, final report, October 2002, 33 pages. 5 STD/NAES/FA(2003)3 however, it is the SNA 1993/ESA 1995 distinction between F.611 and F.612 which would be open to question9. 15. Finally, the distinction between defined benefit pension funds and defined contribution pension funds, is, of course, a traditional one and a country like the United States regularly publishes separate statistics for each type of fund in its “flows of funds”. But this is not the case in the majority of countries. EUROSTAT places the emphasis on the distinction between “independent” pension funds and “non-independent” pension funds, although a clear distinction is made in independent pension funds between DB and DC schemes (and also hybrid schemes, as mentioned above). It can be seen that the difficulties encountered here are quite serious, not to mention the major problem of the distinction between life insurance and pension funds referred to above. Conclusion 16. This note had the modest aim of launching a debate. It is in no way exhaustive. In particular, we did not deal with the question of the compatibility of the above proposals with classifications of financial assets other than those in SNA 1993/ESA 1995. Nor did we discuss in detail the significance of the above proposals for sectors other than households in the broad sense (S14+S15). It is also quite possible that the proposals are not the only ones which would allow us to make progress in our thinking about risk along the lines indicated. 17. Much work therefore clearly remains to be done before a more detailed classification of financial assets in the accounts can lead to a more detailed analysis of the distribution of risk across the various sectors of activity in our national economies. 9 The accounts of the United States clearly show in this regard a heading “Pensions insured” which is clearly an intersection of life insurance and pension funds. 6