Academic and health care problems arisen by hypothetical-deductive reasoning-based curricula Abstract The aim of this study was to identify problems arisen by conventional curricula, the guidelines for development of an appropriate educational model for 21st century, and the advantages and disadvantages of the last two curricular models of North America. The medical education literature published from 1995 through 2002 of four reputable journals in medical education were searched (Academic Medicine, Teaching and Learning in Medicine, Medical Education, and Medical Teacher). First the possibly best articles were identified. During the second screening process 76 of 180 articles were found to be highly relevant to our questions. A review of the chosen articles revealed a concept map which starts from currently applied hypothetical-deductive-reasoning-based(HDR-based) curricula in many medical schools all around the world. Current issues in health care system are possibly attributable to current HDRbased curricular models including PBL. Advantages of reiterative PBL theory can not be denied, but it appears that its limited application should be mainly seen in some academic classes to develop some generic transferable skills simultaneously with other teaching methods. Therefore vast application of HDR in clinical settings is not recommended according to our study. However the relationships demonstrated between factors and outcomes mentioned in the concept map above can be used to run some new studies to test some hypotheses. 1 Keywords: Curriculum, Health care system, Integration, Hypotheticaldeductive reasoning, Community-oriented Medical Education Short running title: Curricular models and health care issues Introduction There is an obvious gap between medical education and professional expectations (outcomes) encountered by recent medical graduates 1,2,3. One of the most important reasons of this discrepancy is the conventional curricula, which rely on hypothetical-deductive reasoning model (HDR or backward reasoning or disease-centered medical education)4,5 . From the historical point of view this educational philosophy returns to Dr. Abraham Flexner's ideas who believed that in order to perform successful problem solving like basic scientists, one should emulate closely the hypothetico-deductive (scientific reasoning) applied by basic scientists in clinical setting and medical education too 6. Actually this idea was established in Flexner’s era by his influence and strength and because of the halo effect around him many concurrent educators have followed his idea. Therefore this belief has been remaining so far even in modern problem-based learning (PBL) curricula 6. Generally, the patients who come to various clinical setting, do not mention the name of their disease, but they talk about their complaints (or clinical presentation for example chest pain, cough, dysuria etc.) and some associated symptoms. Actually the current educational direction is from the disease to manifestations (ie. from unknown territory to known variables in real clinical setting). Authorities including those suggesting PBL curricula, believe that there is a serious need for a hypothesis generated beforehand in order to enable 2 one to set an inquiry strategy. Although this type of problem-solving is used by basic scientists, yet it may be not completely appropriate for problem solving under the constraints of clinical setting (eg. constraints of time, knowledge and skills), 5,7 especially considering that in clinical practice a deliberate trial-and- error approach on a human subject is unethical. In the backward clinical problem solving model (the background of the jumps of PBL theory) proposed by Barrows and Pickell 4, the hypothesis generation is located before the inquiry. If we remind the nature of traditional education in medical schools, in which the teaching process starts from disease (diseasecentered learning) we notice that the same direction is subtly included in both problem-solving model and PBL jumps. But it is astonishing because despite the challenge of PBL theory to start from the case presentations (problem) as its name implies, in the interim of its process it somehow returns again to diseasecentered education. Simply put, it tries to match the clinical problem solving with the traditional disease-centered education inspired from hypotheticaldeductive philosophy of Flexner that does not coincide with many real case instances . But if it is to develop a successful education in medical school, one should do the best to simulate precisely the events which happens in experts mind in real clinical setting not vice versa. So it is reasonable to match medical education with direction of real clinical problem solving starting from clinical presentation and going forward as the experts perform using key predictors to discriminate major categories, subcategories, disease classes and differentials in most instances. 3 On the other hand some recent articles put a question mark on whether PBL curricula are more effective than conventional curricula on knowledge base and clinical performance 8,9. The aim of this study was to identify problems arisen by conventional curricula, the outline for development of an appropriate educational model for 21st century, and the advantages and disadvantages of the first four curricular models of North America. i.e. Apprenticeship-based, Discipline-based, OrganSystem-based, and Problem-based learning curricula. Method The medical education literature published from 1995 through 2002 was thoroughly searched to identify the problems arisen by conventional curricula, the guidelines for development of an appropriate educational model for 21st century, and the advantages and disadvantages of the last two curricular models of North America i.e. Problem-Based Learning (PBL) and Clinical Presentation Curriculum 6 (CPC). Four reputable journals in medical education were searched: Academic Medicine, Teaching and Learning in Medicine, Medical Education, and Medical Teacher. First the possibly best articles were identified. Then during the second screening process, the abstracts of the primarily selected papers were studied and 180 articles were chosen. During studying those articles we realized that 76 articles were highly relevant to our questions. A summary of each article was written including information about article objectives, findings, and conclusion. Although the process may not locate all the relevant articles yet studying the finally chosen 76 ones, it was realized that those would answer our questions appropriately. 4 Based on our past experience with these journals, we thought that the careful search would have located the most relevant papers and although electronic searches might yield to many relevant and irrelevant citations quickly, yet studying the articles carefully, we made sure that many quality and relevant articles, peer reviewed by reputable evaluators of those famous journals, were chosen. A review of the chosen articles using the mentioned questions yield to compiling and analyzing many current issues in medical education and in this article we discuss those problems by using a concept map in a cause-effect way. The concept map starts from currently applied HDR-based curricula in many medical schools all around the world. Overview of research results It is necessary to point out that in hypothetical-deductive reasoning (backward reasoning), the problem-solving model is based on generating one/a few hypothesis(es) in each cycle then verifying that by the end of the cycle. This process of ruling out hypothesis(es) is reminiscent of trial-and-error to achieve the definite diagnosis. However using such a process for clinical practice and teaching clinical reasoning, possibly yield to the following issues in academic and health care system (Figure 1): 1- Nowadays clinical professors deal with a magnitude of non-educational responsibilities 2 (Therapeutic, Research, and occasionally Administrative ones). On the other hand in continuing cyclical process, 5 the first cycle's hypothesis generated by students may not be the patients' definite diagnosis and the students or junior physicians usually repeat the cycle again and again to reach the correct diagnosis. So application of this kind of problem solving in clinical setting is timeconsuming 10,11 and inconsistent with workload of clinical professors in this era (Arrow 1) 3,12,13,14,15. 2- The first problem causes the burden of education to be placed on residents and students' free flowing clinical contact. Under these circumstances "Residents see interns as extra pairs of hands but not probationers, who still need training and supervision at a significant point in their career" (Arrow 2). 2,12,16,17,18,19. As a side effect, this kind of education is usually stressful for students 12,20 because residents usually don't have the necessary educational and clinical expertise to educate students. (Arrow 18) 3- The first two problems cause shortage 16,21 of novice physicians' knowledge and skills for clinical practice even in PBL curriculum (Arrow 3 ).18,22,23,24,25 4- The cognitive, attitude 26 and psychomotor skills' shortage cause the beginner physicians to make diagnostic and therapeutic errors (Arrow 4).12,27 Also part of those errors return to the nature of continuing cyclical process itself. Leblanc, Norman, Bordage, and Friedman 6,12,28,29 found that the hypothesis generated in first cycle may cause the data gathered in inquiry step to be misinterpreted because the physician would like to see patient's manifestations according to his/her generated hypothesis manifestations (Fabricating false findings28,29 to support their 6 own hypothesis). This may add some misinterpreted data at the end of each cycle to patient information, so further divert next cycles' hypotheses from the precise diagnosis (Arrow 8) 29. 5- The continuing cyclical process usually causes novice physicians to request long lists of investigations, clinical questions, and examinations1,30,31,32. Because in each cycle some new data would be necessary to verify that cycle's hypothesis (Arrow 6). 6- Verifying hypotheses one by one (one or a few in each cycle) causes a long-lasting clinical inference 30 (Arrow 9). 7- The last issue in turn causes elongation of clinical practice time for ambulatory (rotation between different offices and clinics) and inward patients (bed occupancy time) (Arrow 10). This elongation is further enhanced by novice physicians’ diagnostic and therapeutic errors (Arrow 12) 32. 8- Elongation of clinical practice time (Arrow 11) and long list of investigations lead to raise countries' health care system expenses 31 (Arrow 7). 9- Diagnostic and therapeutic errors (incompetent care), which is well felt by interns and recent graduates themselves cause them to lose their selfesteem13,33,34,35 to involve with patients (Arrow 17). Especially remembering their stressful period of hard studying in medical school, cause them to dissatisfy with traditional and conventional curricula ie. discipline-based and organ-system-based ones (Arrow 16) 24,33. 7 10- As an emotional reaction to the last two issues, medical students' may fall into occupational depression 36 or sometimes attrition from their field of study 37 (Arrows 19). 11- Patients feel novice physicians' incompetence so dissatisfy with quality of care and resist such physicians and feel strongly to have their professors presence. Therefore novice physicians will lose the opportunity to gain required skills independently 38 (Arrow 20). 12- The last item assist in making patients uncooperative with novice doctors in the diagnostic and therapeutic processes (Arrow 21). 13- Cumulative effects of some mentioned factors possibly lead to raise mortality and morbidity in HDR-based health care systems (decreased community health). 12,29,34,35,36 (Arrows 13, 14, 22). 14- Also the increased morbidity participates in the enhancement of the health care system expenses due to extra treatments needed for ensued morbidities (Arrow 15). Without any doubt some of the mentioned arrows are bi-directional and some correlations may not be demonstrated here, yet to simplify the discussion those are not expressed here. Discussion It appears that many current issues in health care system are possibly attributable to current HDR-based curricular models including PBL. Because such models encourage generalized application of HDR for problem-solving, while according to stage theory for evolution of knowledge structure and clinical reasoning, clinical experts apply HDR in a few occasions in which they 8 encounter atypical cases with ambiguous findings 39. Thus vast application of HDR in clinical settings is not recommended according to our study. However the relationships demonstrated between factors and outcomes mentioned in the concept map above can be used to run some new studies to test some hypotheses. It is also clear that some factors above are out of the control of medical education, and health care system itself also plays roles in the mentioned outcomes. However, it also appears from the concept map that vast application of HDR-based curricula in real clinical settings are the main source of many current problems of health care system. Under these circumstances our question is whether a medical education system, which relies on just HDR-based problem-solving, is able to integrate with health care system and to address the problems of that system satisfactorily? If we want to address many problems of health system (community needs) and deal with the idea of integration between medical education and health system to bridge the gap between medical education and professional expectations (outcomes), we should take a serious endeavor to develop inductive or forwardreasoning-based curricula. Without any doubt, we can not deny advantages brought up by reiterative PBL theory e.g. critical thinking skill, but it appears that its limited application should be mainly seen in some academic classes to develop some generic transferable skills simultaneously with other teaching methods like lecture and scheme-driven PBL 39 to assure that the main cognitive skill of a physician (differential diagnosis) will not be sacrificed for attaining generic skills. But in real clinical practice and clinical education its application should be considered 9 very conservatively e.g. just on the theoretical preclinical encounters for educational goals. What seems to be advisable to apply in clinical setting either for practice or for education, is possibly the forward-reasoning-based modules developed in Clinical Presentation Curriculum (CPC). 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