MVSC 5.C.3~ Compare outcomes of theoretical probability with the results of
experimental probability
Alicia Green
Lanier, Susie & Barrs, Sharon. (2003). “Activities: Let's Play Plinko: A Lesson in
Simulations and Experimental Probabilities”. Mathematics Teacher. 96(9), 626-629
This article talks about the way that the game “Plinko” can be used in studying
theoretical and experimental probability. It talks about how students can use the game to try
and guess the probability of landing in a specific spot. The article also uses both a physical
plinko board and then a plinko calculator program. It gives the design of the board and the
program information for the calculator program. The results from the plinko board were
used as the theoretical probability, and the calculator gave the experimental results. They
then compared results to decide where the best place to drop a chip would be.
Some of the strengths of this article would include multiple representations of the
same game. It helped to expand the same topic to apply to both experimental and
theoretical probability. The weakness I could find was that the size of the class can have an
impact on the amount of activity that can be done. The class in the article had only 20
students, but for a class larger then that, it can take more time for each student to go up and
use the board. Another weakness was that the calculator part of the lesson would not work
if there are not enough programmable calculators for the whole class.
This lesson can a fun way to introduce probability to students. The lesson can also
be adjusted for specific grade levels by reducing the size of the plinko board or omitting the
calculator part.
Masse, Leonard N. (2001). “The Possibility of Perfection”. Mathematics Teaching in
the Middle School. 6(9), 500-507
This article talks about the relation between theoretical and experimental
probability and how it is represented in baseball. It talks about a lesson done where
students predicted the number of “perfect games” in baseball possible within a given
number of games based on statistics decided in class. Students then take actual statistics
from the MLB website and magazines to find out the actual statistics and then compare
their estimate and the actual results. It then talks about ways to make the prediction more
accurate when more factors are put into account.
The strengths of the article included the relevance to outside the classroom and it
being a topic very easily recognized. It was also good that it included the topic of other
factors that can influence the results of the experimental probability and how to make those
adjustments. I was not able to see any specific weaknesses in this article.
The article is a good example of showing how even in areas like sports there is
mathematics used and needed. It is a good lesson for when you want to use multiple
sources of information.
Discussion Questions:
1) Most probability comparisons start with finding theoretical probability and then
experimental. Can you think of a topic where you would explore experimental and
then compare it to theoretical?
2) When comparing probabilities, what would be considered a “reasonable estimate”?
Does sample size have an influence on this definition?
3) Can you think of any other non-math related topics that would involve experimental
probability besides professional sports? What would be the theoretical aspect? The
experimental?