APPENDIX 2A: APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UK (SCENARIOS, MITIGATION, IDENTIFYING
RISKS, ADAPTATION)
Table 1: Forecasting climate change (UK)
Topic
Key organisations/institutions involved in
forecasting climate change
Approach
The key source of information in the UK setting out climate change scenarios is the
Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report
(April 2002), further information on uses of the scenarios, availability of data, etc. are
available on the UKCIP website (www.ukcip.org.uk). This programme was funded by
Defra as part of the UK Climate Impacts Programme, and produced by the Tyndall and
Hadley Centres. An outline of these organisations is provided below.
The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) leads on a
wide range of measures addressing climate change forecasting, mitigation measures and
adaptation measures. In 2002/2003 Defra commissioned research worth £12 million on
climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion.(7) (8) This includes funding the
climate prediction and detection programme at the Hadley Centre and the UK Climate
Impacts Programme. The research commissioned falls within three main work streams:
 Climate Assessment and Prediction Programme, dealing with the science of climate
change.
 Climate Impacts Programme, dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation;
 Climate Mitigation Programme, dealing with responses to climate change.
The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations assess how they
might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impact. UKCIP was set
up by Government in April 1997, and is funded by Defra and based at the University of
Oxford. UKCIP aims to co-ordinate and integrate stakeholder led assessments of the
impacts of climate change at a regional and national level. This means that stakeholders
or partners commission research and determine the research agenda, ensuring that it
meets their needs. UKCIP provides support, guidance and tools throughout the process
Topic
Approach
for both stakeholders and researchers, so providing a bridge between the researchers
and the decision-makers in government organisations and business.
The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is part of the Met
Office, provides a focus in the United Kingdom for the scientific issues associated with
climate change. The Hadley Centre’s two main objectives are to develop the best
possible regional and global predictions of climate change, and to assess current climate
change and its attribution to human influences. Most of its funding comes from contracts
with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), other United
Kingdom Government departments and the European commission.
The Tyndall Centre is a national UK centre for trans-disciplinary research on climate
change funded by the research councils. Its purpose is to research, assess and
communicate the options to mitigate, and the necessities to adapt to, climate change, and
to integrate these into the global, UK and local contexts of sustainable development.
Organisational level at which climate change
forecasting is taking place
Climate change forecasting is coordinated at the national level (covering the whole of
the UK). Data is available through this programme at the national level, but users can
choose to look at specific regions or grid squares1 (see outputs below).
Additional modelling has also been undertaken by the Hadley Centre for the British-Irish
Council for islands within the BIC area.
The methods used for forecasting
1
The UKCIP02 Scientific Report presents a series of four emissions scenarios of future
climate change for the UK:

Low emissions (linked to IPPC B1)

Medium-low emissions (linked to IPPC B2)

Medium-high emissions (linked to IPPC A2)
N.b. this refers to UK rather than world regions which are sometimes referred to when discussing climate change forecasting.
Topic
Approach

High emissions.(linked to IPPC A1F1).
The four UKCIP02 scenarios have been derived from climate model runs at the Hadley
Centre and are described in detail in the UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Each of the climate
scenarios is based on a different global greenhouse gas emissions scenario that was
developed for the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For example, the
low emissions scenario links to a ‘global sustainability’ UKCIP socio-economic scenario,
whilst the high emissions scenario links to a ‘world markets’ socio-economic scenario.
The Hadley Centre's global climate model HadCM3 has been run with each of these
emissions scenarios and this produces the global average changes in temperature for the
2080s.
HadCM3 has grid boxes with a resolution of about 300km over the UK. This is too
coarse for many impact assessments because of local variations in climate. Therefore, to
obtain the extra spatial resolution required by most users, they have taken advantage of
the hierarchy of models developed by the Hadley Centre. This process of downscaling
has been adapted from numerical weather prediction models and allows reduced area
models to be developed that are consistent with their global parent models.
This dynamical downscaling has meant that that the UKCIP02 scenarios can be based on
the regional climate model HadRM3 which has a resolution of about 50km. However,
this is a very computer-intensive process. The regional model has therefore only been
run for the baseline (1961-90) and 2080s period and with multi-member ensembles only
for the A2 emissions scenario.
Nevertheless, by scaling between the global and regional climate models it has been
possible to develop the full suite of four scenarios matching the original SRES emissions
scenarios. The time slices are then produced by taking the mean climate for periods
conventionally defined as the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070) and 2080s (20712100). Using 30 year time slices is consistent with standard meteorological practice for
Topic
Approach
defining a region's "climate".
The 50km data provides the basis for the maps and reports, but to meet the requests
from users for even finer resolution, a 5km dataset has also been produced. This has
been constructed using simple spatial interpolation of the 50km grid onto the 5km
observational baseline grid produced for us by the Met Office.
PRECIS: The Hadley Centre is also producing PRECIS – Providing Regional Climates for
Impact studies. This will help provide better climate change modeling for world regions
(e.g. India, China, etc.). It is specifically aiming to produce a model that works on a PC,
and can allow developing countries to model climate change.
A Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) has been developed by academics at King’s
College London and Loughborough University, with sponsorship from a range of
organisation including the National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, UK
Environment Agency. SDSM is a decision support tool for assessing local climate change
impacts using a robust statistical downscaling technique. SDSM facilitates the rapid
development of multiple, low-cost, single-site scenarios of daily surface weather variables
under current and future regional climate forcing. However, a number of limitations are
recognised, for example daily precipitation amounts are a particularly problematic
variable to downscale, and research is ongoing to address this limitation. As far as the
authors of the tool are aware, SDSM is the first tool of its type offered to the broader
climate change impacts community.
The outputs produced
The UKCIP02 Scientific Report describes trends in UK and global climate, the climate
change scenarios used, and the range of UKCIP02 climate change scenario outcomes for
a wide range of climate variables including the following:
 Monthly, seasonal and annual climate for a number of variables, including
precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, soil moisture and wind speed.
 UK daily data, providing analysis of return-periods and probability of occurrence for
daily extremes of precipitation, temperature and wind speed.
Topic
Approach
 Changes in mean sea surface temperature, changes in daily mean wind speed and
future changes in extreme sea levels and storm surges (the latter is modelled using
wind and pressure from the regional model to drive a separate high-resolution
model at a 30 km resolution, from the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and
uncertainties in modelling are very large).
The above variables are all modelled at a spatial resolution of 50 km. Data is available for
all variables for the user to create mapped data. However, some maps are provided in
the UKCIP02 Scientific Report and on the UKCIP website. All variables are mapped for
the UK for each emissions scenario over the three time slices.
Similar outputs have been produced for the BIC islands, but at a higher resolution (25km)
in order to pick up the land mass of the smaller islands.
Sea level rise data is provided for each region (e.g. 79 cm in the South East under a high
emissions scenario by the 2080’s relative to the 1961-90 baseline), but is not available in
a mapped form. The Environment Agency through its flood mapping strategy and the
ODPM through the Foresight project are working on improved flood risk information (as
discussed in table 3 on Impacts).
Availability of outputs
Mapped information availability
Maps are available on the UKCIP website for each region (including Scotland and Wales)
covering three key variables (annual temperature, summer precipitation and winter
precipitation) under the low and high emissions scenarios and across the three time
slices.
Maps are also available covering the whole UK for a wide range of variables (more maps
are provided on the website than in the UKCIP02 Scientific report – although the
detailed information is contained in the report).
Topic
Approach
All maps are available to be downloaded and used in reports, providing the source is
acknowledged.
Users can also obtain data and create their own maps.
Raw data availability
The UKCIP website provides information on data availability, and clear advice on the
suitability of the scenarios for a range of uses, including information on limitations and
confidence levels.
The website lists the full range of variables available, contents of the data archive,
definitions of variables, and the data formats that the files are supplied in. All of the data
is available at the 50km gridbox scale in the form of monthly averages/% changes for the
2020s, 2050s and 2080s time slices. The website provides thorough advice on data
availability, uses and formatting. In order to access data, users must complete a license
form and will then receive details on accessing and browsing the data archive.
Daily data from the UKCIP model runs have been archived and stored at the LINK
project, University of East Anglia. The UKCIP website notes that if necessary, further
analysis could be developed based on these datasets.
Compatibility with spatial planning
The UKCIP02 scenarios work provides a range of data/maps which are designed to be
used for a wide range of purposes, from highly technical work to uses in policy
development and planning by non-technical specialists. Spatial planning requires a clear
indication of likely climate change scenario outcomes and the spatial distribution of these
outcomes i.e. how will climate change in different areas. The mapped data available in
the UKCIP02 Scientific Report and on the UKCIP website are well suited to the needs of
spatial planning at national and regional. For example, the scenario outcomes have been
widely used as the basis for regional impact studies. At the local level the data provide a
Topic
Approach
broad indication of likely climate changes, which should be adequate for addressing
climate change through spatial planning at the local level.
However, there is a lack of spatial data on sea level rise. Such data would be very useful
for spatial planning, as this is likely to be one of the key implications of climate change for
many areas. As noted above the Environment Agency through its flood mapping strategy
and the ODPM through the Foresight project are working on improved flood risk
information (as discussed in table 3 on Impacts).
A summary of the strengths and weaknesses
of climate change forecasting
Strengths (1) (5)
 The approach to forecasting climate change in the UK uses a range of scenarios.
 The UK was the first to use regional scenarios.
 UKCIP02 scenarios include information for 4 SRES marker scenarios for numerous
variables.
 Resolution is suitable for spatial planning.
 The modelling work undertaken by the Hadley Centre is seen to be world class.
Techniques are constantly improving and the UKCIP02 scenarios include a range of
improvements on the first round of forecasting (carried out in 1998).
 The scenarios are easy to access, regularly updated and there is good accompanying
guidance.
 The outputs are well suited to the needs of a wide range of users.
Weaknesses (1) (5)
 The major weakness is that the UKCIP only use one GCM/RCM.
 The scenarios are known to be on the ‘dry side’.
 The UKCIP02 Scientific Report recognises that there are a range of uncertainties in
the modelling. Production of the scenarios involves complicated modelling and
many assumptions. There are a number of uncertainties including uncertainties in
scenarios of climate change, emissions uncertainties, feedbacks from the carbon
Topic
Any indication of future work planned in
climate change forecasting
Key documents used
Approach
cycle and atmospheric chemistry, uncertainties due to the method of patternscaling, uncertainties due to model development, uncertainties due to changes of
scale, the effects of natural variability and possible changes to the Gulf Stream. (for
more detail see chapter 7 of the UKCIP02 Scientific Report).
UKCIP are currently discussing the next set of scenarios, which are expected in 2006,
although work has not yet begun on these.
1. Hulme, M., Jenkins, G.J., Lu,X., Turnpenny, J.R., Mitchell, T.D., Jones, R.G., Lowe, J.,
Murphy, J.M., Hassell, D., Boorman, P., McDonald, R. and Hill, S. (2002) Climate
Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report, Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University
of east Anglia, Norwich, UK. 120 pp. (‘The UKCIP02 Scientific Report)
2. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/index.html
3. UKCIP (2001) Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: a guide to
their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme. UKCIP, Oxford.
4. British Irish Council and Hadley Centre (2003) Scenarios of Climate Change for Islands
within the BIC Region.
5. Discussion with Jacquelyn Harman, UKCIP Scientific Officer
6. Discussion with Lisa Horricks and James Burt, Defra, Global Atmosphere division
7. Defra Internet Website: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/
8. Defra Global Atmosphere Research Programme Annual report 2002 to 2003:
Summary of research programme.
Table 2: Mitigation (UK)
Topic
Key organisations/institutions involved in
producing/providing information on mitigation
of climate change
Approach
The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) leads on a
wide range of measures addressing climate change forecasting, mitigation measures and
adaptation measures. In 2002/2003 Defra commissioned research worth £12 million on
climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion.(1) The research commissioned falls
within three main work streams:
 Climate Assessment and Prediction Programme, dealing with the science of climate
change.
 Climate Impacts Programme, dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation;
 Climate Mitigation Programme, dealing with responses to climate change.
DEFRA works in conjunction with other government departments to tackle climate
change. The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) implements policy on
renewables, the climate change levy is implemented by HM Customs and Excise, and
the DfT (Department for Transport) puts in place policies in relation to sustainable
transport. The CCPO (Climate Change projects office – which is part of Defra and
the DTI) promotes project opportunities for mitigation measures abroad to developers.
(2)
Organisational level at which information on
climate change mitigation is prepared
Climate change mitigation is driven by international and European policy as well as
policy at the national level. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, the UK’s legally binding target is to reduce
emissions to 12.5% below 1990 levels over the period 2008-2012. In the UK, mitigation
policy and planning takes place at the national level and feeds down to the regional and
local levels.
It is also important to note that policy within the UK varies across the devolved
administrations, for example, Scotland and Wales have separate transport policy from
England, whereas energy policy covers Great Britain.
Topic
Approach
In terms of actions on the part of businesses, policy feeds directly from the national level
to businesses.
In terms of renewable energy all regions are preparing renewable or sustainable energy
strategies in order to build on the UK Climate Change Programme. These are being
prepared voluntarily rather than as a legal requirement. At the local level, particularly in
relation to renewable energy development, policy is implemented by local authorities,
and more specifically their development plans. The policies they contain are crucial in
realising energy developments and reducing emissions. (7)
Local authorities also have a key role to play in promoting energy efficiency through
implementing Building Regulations and also by promoting domestic energy efficiency
under the Home Energy Conservation Act. Local authorities can also play a role in
promoting combined heat and power (CHP).
What topics does mitigation information
cover?
The Government and devolved administrations are currently working on a substantial
programme of integrated policies and measures as set out in the UK Climate Change
Programme to:
 Improve business’s use of energy

Stimulate new, more efficient sources of power generation (namely, renewable
energy sources)

Cut emissions from the transport sector

Promote better energy efficiency in the domestic sector

Improve energy efficiency requirements of the Building Regulations

Continue the fall in emissions from agriculture and forestry
Topic
Approach
 Ensure the public sector takes a leading role.
Compatibility with spatial planning
Climate change in relation to spatial planning is addressed in Draft PPS22 –
Renewable Energy. It provides planning guidance to planning authorities on issues
relating to renewable energy such as noise, visual effects, and odour. It also addresses
possible impacts on international, national and locally designated sites, green belts and
buffer zones, and considers different technology types such as biomass projects, energy
crops and wind turbines.
What is the country doing in practice to
mitigate against climate change
In order to meet Kyoto targets the UK Government has developed the UK Climate
Change Programme (published in 2000), a strategic, far-reaching plan to decrease gas
emissions and in turn halt the impacts of climate change, which has been signed up to by
all Government departments. Under this programme the UK is aiming to go beyond
Kyoto targets to decrease emissions levels by 12.5% below the 1990 level, they are
aiming for a decrease of 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. (3)
Key polices and measures used to achieve the target include: (3)
Power generation
 The Government has committed £230m in capital grants for a number of
renewable energy technologies over the next 5 years.
 The Renewables Obligation: electricity suppliers are required to purchase a
certain proportion of electricity from renewable sources, increasing from 3% in
2003/4 to 10.4% in 2010/11. Eligible sources exclude some large-scale hydro, waste
and certain co-fired biomass after 2006.
 Renewable energy, ‘good quality’ CHP and electricity from coalmine methane are
exempted from the Climate Change Levy.
Business
 Climate change levy package: The Climate Change Levy is charged on all
Topic
Approach
industrial and commercial users of energy according to the fuels they use. 6000
companies from energy intensive sectors have negotiated Climate Change
Agreements, which reduce the Levy charges they must pay, in return for voluntary
action on saving energy. The Levy forms a key part of the Government’s
programme.
 Carbon Trust: The Carbon Trust was established in April 2001 and is an
independent company funded principally from Climate Change Levy revenues
(about £130 million). Their role is to accelerate the take up of cost effective, low
carbon technologies and other measures by business and levy payers. The Carbon
Trust runs a number of programmes to support and encourage energy efficiency
improvements by business, including:
- Action Energy (formerly the Energy Efficiency Best Practice Program).
- The Enhanced Capital Allowance scheme for investments in energy saving
technologies (worth around £70m per year).
- The Low Carbon Innovation Programme, through which the Trust will support
the development of new low carbon technologies.
 The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is a voluntary scheme to provide
the Government and business with experience in preparation for EU-wide and
international trading:
- The energy efficiency targets defined under Climate Change Agreements
(CCA) are tradable.
- Companies may ‘bid’ emissions reduction targets in return for incentive
payments offered by the Government. These emissions reductions are
tradable.
- Any UK company may carry out a project that results in verified “emissions
reduction credits”, which are also tradable.
 EU Emissions Trading Scheme – to ensure that the emission reductions take
place where the cost of the reduction is lowest thus lowering the overall costs of
combating climate change. (1) This scheme is due to start on 1st January 2005.
 £30m Government funding in 2003-04 to provide financial incentives to encourage
companies to take on binding emission reduction targets.
Topic
Approach
 Action Energy is a UK programme designed to help organisations cut their
energy bills by 10-20%. The Defra climate change website and the UK Climate
Programme set out additional information on measures that businesses can take to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions e.g. information on travel plans.
 Measures to decrease emissions from agriculture.
Domestic measures
 There are a number of programmes designed to encourage energy efficiency in
households, including the Energy Efficiency Commitment (funded through a
levy on utility bills to around £150M per year), Warm Front (formerly the
Home Energy Efficiency Scheme - £163M in 2002/3), funding the Energy Saving
Trust and Energy Efficiency Advice Centres. Certain professionally installed energy
efficiency measures have been granted a reduced VAT rate of 5%, and the
Housing Energy Efficiency Best Practice Programme provides relevant
advice and case studies.
 The Clear Skies programme provides funding for households to help to pay for
household scale renewable energy systems.
 The Community Renewables Initiative is providing support for community
scale developments.
Public sector
The Government also sets targets for Government buildings, NHS, schools, etc.
The Energy White Paper (February 2003) sets out the longer term strategic
framework for the UK’s energy policy and accepted that the UK should put itself on a
path to reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050. Key measures in relation to climate
change include promoting renewable energy and green technologies and reviewing the
UK Building Regulations in 2005 to ensure energy efficiency in new buildings.
The Government’s 10-year Transport Plan (2001) sets out that £180 billion of
investment and public spending will go into transport over the next ten years to cut
Topic
A summary of the strengths and weaknesses
of the country’s approach to mitigation
Approach
congestion and reduce pollution.
Strengths (8)

Driven by EU level policy

UK is leading mitigation e.g. it introduced emissions trading before the EU and is
seeking further long term and higher targets.

All measures in the Programme form an integrated package and all sectors of the
economy are expected to contribute.

The DTI/CBI support action to decrease emissions and promote the message that it
need not reduce competitiveness.
Weaknesses (8)
Any indication of future work planned on
climate change and mitigation

Reducing emissions from transport is the most challenging aspect, and forms a long
term goal.

The EU climate change programme reduces the flexibility for Member States to
introduce new measures, and states often have to adapt their own measures to fit
with EU policy as it is introduced.

The UK is good at putting in place national level policies, but less good at ensuring
things are actually taking place on the ground e.g. Defra is not making full use of the
potential to deliver mitigation through the planning system.

Activity in the UK is generally centralised, which means that less use is made of
regional knowledge, differences and innovation, compared to Germany where each
Lander has more scope to be innovative.

The UK Climate Change Programme is due to be reviewed in 2004, and will take
into account the changes that have occurred since 2000, such as the Energy White
Topic
Key documents used
Approach
Paper. There will also be a further Communication on progress in the UK under
the UNs Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is due in 2005. (8)
 There will be ongoing implementation of the Energy White Paper, with an annual
report in April/May. (8)
 An Energy Efficiency Implementation Plan is due to be published in April 2004,
which follows up the Climate Change Programme and Energy White paper on
increasing energy efficiency in households by 2010. There will be a role for local
authorities to help implement this. (8)
 Review of Building Regulations with the aim of tightening performance standards for
new build and works to existing stock e.g. if central heating is installed there should
also be improvements to insulation. (8)
1. Defra Internet Website: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/
2. Department of Trade and Industry website:
http://www.dti.gov.uk/ccpo/uk.htm
3. Climate Change; The UK Programme. Department of the Environment,
Transport and the Regions, 2000.
4. 3NC: The UK’s Third National Communication under the UNs
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs. 2001
5. Energy White Paper: Our energy future – creating a low carbon
economy. Department of Trade and Industry, Feb 2003.
6. Consultation Paper on Draft New Planning Policy PPS22: Renewable
Energy, and companion guide. ODPM, Nov 2003
7. EMPowering the Future: A Sustainable Energy Strategy for the East
Midlands. Regional Energy Task Group, Feb 2003.
8. Discussion with Lisa Horricks and James Burt, Defra, Global Atmosphere division
Table 3: Climate change risks/impacts identified for each major sector (UK)
Question
Key organisations/institutions involved in providing
information on risks/impacts on key sectors
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
The UK Climate Change Programme (published by the then DETR in 2000)
sets out the Governments approach to addressing climate change impacts and
adaptation. It notes that this work will cover the action that the Government
should take, increase awareness of the need for adaptation and provide a
framework to help other key players prepare in good time. In particular it
highlights the importance of adaptation considerations within organisations
responsible for planning and developing major infrastructure. The establishment
of UKCIP in 1997 was a key action by Government to help assist the process.
The UK Climate Impacts programme (UKCIP) aims to co-ordinate and
integrate an assessment of the impacts of climate change at a regional and
national level, led by stakeholders. Stakeholders or partners commission the
research and determine the research agenda, ensuring that it meets their needs.
UKCIP provides support, guidance and tools throughout the process for both
stakeholders and the researchers, so providing a bridge between the researchers
and the decision-makers in government organisations and business (1).
The Environment Agency is a non-departmental public body, sponsored
largely by Defra and the National Assembly for Wales (NAW). The EA was set
up by the 1995 Environment Act. The EA provides high quality environmental
protection and improvement in England and Wales through an emphasis on
prevention and education, and then vigorous enforcement where necessary. Of
particular relevance to climate change, the EA has a remit in relation to coastal
and fluvial flood management, and is currently undertaking research into flood
risk resulting from climate change.
The Office of Science and Technology has commissioned research on how
flooding and coastal erosion will change over the next 100 years (The Foresight
‘Future Flooding’ project). The work has been undertaken by a large team of
Question
Organisational level at which information on
risks/impacts on key sectors is prepared
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
leading experts from a range of organisations. The aim of the project is to use
the best available science to provide a challenging vision for flood and coastal
defence in the UK between 2030 and 2100 and so inform long-term policy.
UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP) is a national level programme that
works at the national and regional level. UKCIP supports a range of sectoral,
cross-sectoral and regional studies aimed at understanding climate change and
it’s impacts.
At a regional level, a series of scoping studies have been undertaken to examine
vulnerability to climate change and to encourage stakeholders within these areas
to take account of the need for climate change adaptation. In addition, sectoral
and integrated studies (e.g. Regis) are considering climate change impacts on a
multi-regional or national level.
UKCIP also work at the local authority level, to assist with work on
strategies.
Sector2
2
Impacts/Risks
N.b. Defra/UKCIP are keen not to proscribe which are key sectors e.g. within business, as all sectors should be considering risks and adaptation strategies.
Question
Which sectors are covered?
Environmental
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Flood risk and
 The Future Flood project (17) has analysed future
coastal erosion
risks of flooding and coastal erosion for four different
(including the
future scenarios. It should be noted that climate
integrated REGIS
change was one key driver, but that urbanisation,
study)
rural land management, increasing national wealth will
all contribute to increasing risk, and the value of
assets at risk. The study has looked at:
 How economic risks from flooding might grow over
the next 100 years, and concludes the cost may be
between £1billion and £27 billion depending on the
type of economic system in operation and the level
of greenhouse gas emissions.
 What the additional risks in the urban environment
are, and concludes that in addition to flooding from
rivers and coasts, towns and cities will be subject to
localised flooding caused by the sewer and drainage
systems being overwhelmed by sudden localised
downpours. The potential damages could be huge,
but much more work needs to be done to quantify
the problem.
 What the risks from coastal erosion will be. The
annual damage is predicted to increase by 3-9 times
by the 2080s, with a worst case cost of £126 million
per year.
 The number of people at high risk from river and
coastal flooding could increase from 1.6 million today
to between 2.3 and 3.6 million.
 The Environment Agency are also working on flood
risk maps which will incorporate climate change
related flood risks.
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Agriculture
There will be many impacts on agriculture due to climate
(including
change, including: (9)
Accelerates and
 Changes in temperatures, humidity and precipitation
REGIS studies)
will impact on agriculture e.g. affecting favourable
types of crop varieties.
 Cropping may be less sensitive to changes in climate,
than to socio-economic changes.


Severe flood impacts and significant agricultural
abandonment.
Increase in disease and pests due to higher
temperatures.
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Gardens
Plants and gardens will be influenced in a number of ways
due to the effects of climate change: (6)
 Higher CO2 levels will increase the rate of
photosynthesis and enhance plant growth.
 Higher temperatures will effect the annual growth
cycle of perennial plants, some plants will fare better
in warmer conditions, whilst others will fare worse.
 Temperature increases will enhance biological activity
of soil micro-organisms, leading to more rapid
breakdown of soil organic matter and faster nutrient
release. This will increase plant growth but increase
the loss of plant nutrients through leaching.
 Higher temperature will also increase the moisture
loss in soil, therefore plants will suffer drought more
frequently during summer months.
 Heavier rain will lead to localised flooding and will
also wash away soil minerals, polluting streams,
ponds and lakes, which will be particularly evident
during the winter months.
 Increased temperatures shorten pest life cycles so
that populations increase faster, while longer growing
seasons allow additional reproductive cycles when
pest levels are already high. With increased
temperatures, they will also be able to migrate to the
north of the UK.
 Warmer, wetter winters will favour the spread of
water-transmitted diseases, and drier, warmer
summers will increase the incidence of aerially
dispersed spores of disease. The changes in climate
will also decrease the effect of herbicides, and
increase the need for weeding.
 Large scale storm damage in woodlands.
 Increase in economic cost of maintaining and
preserving all types of gardens and lawns.
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Marine environment Coastal and marine habitats face the twin influences of
climate change and rising sea levels (10). Threats from
climate change can be divided into direct impacts
(increases in sea level, sea surface temperature and UV-B
penetration) and indirect impacts (changes in storminess,
wave climates, circulation and nutrient supply) (11). Some
impacts may include: (11)
 Rising sea levels will effect the shape of estuaries
which will determine intertidal sediments effecting
the abundance and availability of prey for water birds.
 The continued northward and eastward migration of
wader birds in search of cooler climates.
 Sea level rises will encourage erosion of many salt
marsh, sand dune and vegetated shingles area,
especially if coupled with increases in storm activity.
 Increases in surface sea temperature and rising sea
levels, will effect all marine habitats, especially those
with intertidal and shallow subtidal zones.
Where habitats are already stressed by local human
impacts and natural events the impacts of climate change
are likely to be felt more strongly.
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Nature
 Habitats will be lost or significantly altered as a
Conservation
result of climate change impacts.
(including DEFRA
 The philosophy behind conserving designated sites
Biodiversity Review
will also be greatly challenged (14).
And the integrated
 Impacts of climate change will alter the life cycles
REGIS study)
and distribution of species (7).
 Habitats and Species will be affected by direct
habitat loss (e.g. due to flooding) and also by the
effects of temperature increases and changes in
precipitation.
 Some species will experience a loss or reduction of
suitable climate space, whilst others will see an
increase in climate space.
 The impacts of climate change on the natural
environment are likely to be most dramatic in
coastal areas due to sea level rise and coastal
erosion (14).
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Water Demand
 Domestic water demand is higher in the warmer
months, therefore demand will increase with the
higher temperatures corresponding to climate
change. (8)
 Industries such as soft drinks, brewing and leisure
are most likely to increase their demand for water
with the ongoing effects of climate change. (8)
 Longer growing seasons and changes in demand for
different foods will increase water demand in
agricultural and horticultural sectors. (8)
 Water supply will also be affected by climate change,
with some areas suffering from shortages,
particularly in the southern parts of the UK.
Question
Social
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Built Environment
The effects of climate change will have direct and indirect
impacts on the built environment, including: (4)
 Flooding of buildings will become more common
leading to building damage/structural collapses, and
contamination from sewage. This will also be caused
by more frequent storms.
 Increased rates of coastal erosion (due to rising sea
levels and possible increased storminess) will have
catastrophic consequences for buildings in vulnerable
locations.
 Increased flooding and rainfall could lead to the
failure of drainage systems.
 Subsidence is expected to increase in buildings on
clay soils, due to higher temperatures, lower summer
rainfall, and increased evapo-transpiration.
 Higher summer temperatures will lead to an increase
in the demand for air conditioning in buildings, and
hence, a higher energy demand.
 The impacts of increased amounts rain, wind and
heat will cause adverse effects on listed heritage sites
in the UK (3).
The impacts on transport and highways may include: (5)
 Flood disruption which will eventually lead to the
need for upgrade or re-routing.
 Increased temperatures will cause heat stress for
passengers and service disruption.
 Increased heat will increase risk of surface damage to
roads, railways and other structures, yet will
decrease the need for road salting (less frost).
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Health
 Cold-related deaths are likely to decline substantially,
by perhaps 20,000 cases pa, while heat-related deaths
are likely to increase, by about 2,000 cases pa. (2)
 Cases of food poisoning are likely to increase
significantly, by perhaps 10,000 cases pa; (2)
 Vector-borne diseases and water-borne diseases may
present local problems but the increase in their
overall impact is likely to be small; (2)
 The risk of major disasters caused by severe winter
gales and coastal flooding is likely to increase; (2)
 Effects of air pollutants on health are likely to decline.
(2)
 The effects of ozone during the summer are likely to
result in a rise of several thousand extra deaths each
year and a similar number of hospital admissions. Skin
cancer cases are likely to increase by perhaps 5,000
per year and cataracts by 2,000 cases. (2)
 Increase temperatures will cause heat stress to the
old, poor and vulnerable communities. (2)
 Potential of major coastal flooding to overwhelm
local NHS resources. (2)
Planning
The impacts of climate change have the potential to effect
many aspects of the planning system. If effects are not
planned for (and adaptation techniques developed) the
outcome will be disastrous and very costly to change (5).
Question
Economic
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Business
There has been limited study into the monetary value of
climate change impacts for businesses, and the costs of
adaptation. This will impact on businesses that are not
prepared for the changes caused by climate change. (13)
Local Authorities
Cross-sectoral impact identification tools
A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the
country’s approach to identifying risks/impacts in key
sectors
Defra also noted that the financial sector (insurance and
investment) are doing considerable work to identify
climate change impacts, due to the vulnerability of the
industry .(15)
Local Authorities must take into account all the effects of
climate change as it will affect many council services,
assets and infrastructure. Extreme weather events
caused by climate change will have a big impact on
society; rivers, canals and the coast are likely to be
subject to more frequent and severe flooding; gardens
and parks will face a range of impacts; water demand may
exceed available resources; and there will be health risks
for communities. (5)
UKCIP has also produced ‘Guidance on risk and
uncertainty in decision making’.
UKCIP are issuing guidance on costing the impacts of
climate change (forthcoming, Spring 2004).
Strengths (16)
 Research is stakeholder directed and produced through partnership
working. This produces a high standard of research with considerable ‘buyin’ from stakeholders.
 The regional and cross-sectoral approach to research in the UK provides a
good level of detail and useful outputs.
 UKCIP regional partnerships are also a strength – they include key regional
decision makers and identify impacts and adaptations across sectors
Question
Any indication of future work planned on identifying
impacts/risks
Key documents used
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
Weaknesses (16)
 There needs to be further work to mainstream understanding of climate
risks/impacts.
Defra is commissioning a programme of cross-regional research looking at six
priority areas over the period 2005 – 2007 (16):
 Planning, land use and the built environment
 Water resources
 Business
 Countryside and the rural economy
 Costs of impacts adaptation
 Guidance on adaptation for policy makers (at all levels)
1. UKCIP website: http://www.ukcip.org.uk
2. Health effects of Climate Change in the UK. Department of Health
(2001), Institute for Environment and Health, Leicester. 290pp.
3. Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate. UKCIP and EPSRC,
(2003), 21 pp.
4. Briefing Note: Climate Change impacts on Buildings. UKCIP (2003).
5. Climate Change and Local Communities – How prepared are
you? An adaptation guide for local authorities in the UK. UKCIP,
LGA, IDeA, COSLA, Welsh Local Government Association, (2003), 9 pp.
6. Gardening in the Global Greenhouse, Summary Report. Richard
Bisgrove and Professor Paul Hadley, (2002), 17 pp.
7. Climate Change and UK Nature Conservation: A review of the
impact of climate change on UK species and habitat conservation
policy. Hossell, J.E., Briggs, B., and Hepburn, I.R., (2000). Department of
the Environment, Transport and the Regions, UK. 73pp.
8. Climate Change and Demand for Water, Executive Summary.
Question
Response for country (please ensure that all information provided is
clearly referenced in the text)
CCDeW, Atkins, Cranfield University, SEI (Feb 2003).
9. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptions Research Programme
(CC03); Project Summaries report, 1987-2002. DEFRA.
10. Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change
(MONARCH); Pamphlet. The UK Climate Impacts Programme, (2000),
UKCIP, Oxford. 4pp.
11. Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain and Ireland:
Modelling natural resource responses to climate change (the
MONARCH project): Technical Report. Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M.
and Dawson, T.P., (eds), (2001), UKCIP, Oxford.
12. Potential UK adaptation strategies for climate change; Technical
report. ERM, May 2000
13. UKCIP Draft Strategy for Working with Business. UKCIP. March
2003.
14. Living with Climate Change in the East of England; Stage 2. LUC,
CAG and SQW Limited, Sept 2003.
15. Rising to the Challenge: Impacts of Climate Change in the South
East in the 21st Century
16. Discussion with Lisa Horricks and James Burt, Defra, Global
Atmosphere Division.
17. Foresight Future Flooding, Office of Science and Technology April
2004.
Table 4: Adaptation (UK)
Topic
Key organisations/institutions involved in
producing information on adapting to climate
change
Approach
As above, the UK Climate Change Programme (published by the then DETR in
2000) sets out the Governments approach to addressing climate change impacts and
adaptation. It notes that this work will cover the action that the Government should
take, increase awareness of the need for adaptation and provide a framework to help
other key players prepare in good time. In particular it highlights the importance of
adaptation considerations within organisations responsible for planning and
developing major infrastructure. The establishment of UKCIP in 1997 was a key
action by Government to help assist the process.
The Government has established The UK Climate Impacts programme
(UKCIP) to provide information and advice on adaptation to climate change.
Organisational level at which information on
climate change adaptation is prepared
UKCIP undertakes work on adaptation to climate change at the national level.
UKCIP supports a range of regional, sectoral and cross-sectoral studies aimed at
understanding climate change and it’s impacts.
At the regional level, a series of scoping studies have been undertaken to examine
local vulnerability to climate change and to encourage stakeholders within these areas
to take account of the need for climate change adaptation. In addition, sectoral and
integrated studies are considering climate change impacts and adaptation measures
on a multi-regional or national level.
Many of the same resources that set out information on impacts of climate change
also provide guidance on adaptation. UKCIP has also produced a range of tools to
assist with adaptation, which include ‘Guidance on risk and uncertainty in decision
making’ which are a very important part of the UK’s approach to adaptation.
Sector
Adaptation Measures
Topic
What sectors does adaptation
information cover?
Approach
Environmental Flood risk and coastal
erosion




The Future Flood project has looked at options
for responding to future challenges arising from
fluvial and coastal flood risk, including responses
for reducing future catchment-scale flood risk and
intra-urban flood risk.
The report concludes that no single response can
adequately reduce the considerable risks
identified, but that a combination of responses
could help to minimise risks from the worst
scenario of £20 billion damage per year down to
around £2 billion in the 2080s. Options of
catchment-wide storage, improved land use
planning and realigning coastal defences all
perform well against a range of economic, social
and environmental criteria.
In terms of intra-urban flood risk engineering
solutions alone would be prohibitively expensive.
The report concludes that more research and
better modelling is required to address this issue
The report sets out a range of key choices for
policy-makers, for example, should we accept
increasing levels of risk of flooding, seek to
maintain risks at current levels, seek to reduce
the risks of flooding. It also notes that there is a
need to decide how much to invest in better
modelling and prediction of flooding in urban
areas.
Topic
Approach
Agriculture (including
Accelerates)


Gardens





Agricultural businesses will need to adapt to the
effects of changing climatic conditions to ensure
economic viability, while at the same time
continuing to improve sustainable practices to
reduce agriculture's impact on the environment.
(9) (17)
Accurate climate change forecasting is crucial to
growers to secure the uptake of adaptations,
requiring information transfer from the
government. (9) (17)
Current horticultural skills will need to be refined
to ensure the survival of existing garden plants and
allow the cultivation of new species. (6)
Plant drought tolerant species in areas of extreme
high temperatures and expected water shortages.
Retail horticultural trade must respond to the
consumer demand for such exotic species. (6)
Employ the use of garden conservation
management plans to balance the consideration of
future climate changes with issues of historical and
contemporary authenticity. (6)
Plan drainage measures to reduce flooding.
Further develop environmentally sustainable
gardening techniques. (6)
Topic
Approach
Marine Environment




Nature Conservation
(including DEFRA
Biodiversity Review)




Managed coastal retreat and coastal realignment is
one potential adaptation technique in coastal
areas.
As temperatures rise, allow for the migration of
marine birds to cooler climates in the north of the
UK (11).
With the rising water levels allow for the retreat
of coastal defences (rather than coastal defence
management) to allow marshes to colonise in new
areas (11).
Incorporate of climate change into all Marine
Action Plans.
There is an immediate need to adjust
conservation policy and management to take into
account the effects of climate change (7), and
acknowledge the dynamic nature of the climate
change process (14).
Participate in specific initiatives for integrated land
and habitat management and educate the public
about climate change issues (14).
Consider all options of protection, relocation,
abandonment of some areas, or creation of new
habitats, when assessing sites (14).
Provide space to adapt, stepping stones for
species to migrate and realise the opportunities
to create new habitats as others are lost. Allow
natural migration processes wherever possible.
(14)
Topic
Approach
Water Demand
Social
Built Environment

Educate the public in water-saving technologies
and the need to reduce water usage. (8)
 Continuation of monitoring systems to ensure
that understanding is developed and behaviour
adjusted accordingly. (8)
Revision of building standards, codes an regulations will
help to avoid the worst potential impacts of climate
change. Some issues to consider include: (4)
 Flooding of buildings can be avoided by careful
siting of buildings, and designs to minimise damage
e.g. water-resistant materials.
 Regulatory standards should be pursued to ensure
the safety of new buildings.
 Improved coastal defences to secure the safety of
buildings in coastal locations.
 Drainage systems and drainage design standards
will need upgrading to avoid failure due to
flooding.
 Improved foundation design and underpinning of
nearby trees to avoid the effects of subsidence.
 Future developments should consider water
efficiency in their designs, due to the expected
pressure on water sources due to climate change.
 Incorporate shading, natural ventilation and
increase in thermal mass in buildings, to prevent
the need for air conditioning.
 It is not realistic to relocate or rebuild listed UK
Heritage sites, so it is important to develop
flexible conservation and protection strategies to
protect these sites (3).
Topic
Approach
Health


Planning



Economic
Business



Educate and advise people to modify their
behaviour e.g. by the use of hats and sunscreen
ointments. (2)
Work with other sectors to encourage an overall
decrease in greenhouse gases, which will in turn
reduce the effects on health. (2)
Building consideration of climate change into
planning processes and systems provides the
opportunity to meet adaptation requirements
before impacts arise.
It is also more cost effective to address the issue
before the problems actually arrive (12).
Climate change considerations should be
incorporated into future policies, strategies, plans,
programmes and projects, at the local, regional
and national planning level (12).
UKCIP has successfully worked with some
business sectors (e.g. water and insurance) over a
number of
years to raise awareness of climate change.
UKCIP will continue to do this in order to
educate businesses on the effects of climate
change. (13)
Topic
Approach
Local Authorities



Local authorities have a key role in ensuring that
their communities are sustainable in the face of a
changing climate, including preparing for the new
opportunities that will arise (5). It will be their
role to make decisions regarding the long-term
impact of climate change, for example, the
management of public buildings, planning for new
development, and emergency preparedness.
Councils must ensure that services can continue
to be provided at a reasonable cost and that
communities are able to adapt to change. (5)
The UKCIP adaptation guidance for local
authorities covers a range of sectors including
planning, housing and buildings, transport and
highways, health and social services,
environmental services and awareness. It sets out
suggested adaptation responses for each e.g. for
transport planning – to flood-proof or re-site
infrastructure and plan routes to minimise
disruption.
Topic
Approach
Cross-sectoral adaptation tools
UKCIP has also produced a range of tools to assist
with adaptation, which include ‘Guidance on risk and
uncertainty in decision making’ (18).
According to the contact interviewed at UKCIP,
UKCIP is also developing:
 Web based tools: an Adaptation Wizard
describing how to use all UKCIP resources in
planning for adaptation
 Adaptation case studies: Examples of adaptation
being implemented
Topic
Activity in terms of achieving adaptation
Approach
 The second phase of this research covers spatial planning requirements,
e.g. PPG 12 and 25 both make reference to climate change and the need
to address it within development plans.
 UK Climate Change Programme (which is under review) sets out a
variety of actions already undertaken by Government (as at 2000) in
relation to:
o Water resources – actions agreed with EA and water
companies, reviewed water abstraction licensing system,
introduced new Water Regulations to help reduce wasteful
use of water in domestic fittings, issued guidance to domestic
and industrial water users).
o Flood and coastal defence – reviewing planning guidance to
local authorities, incorporating allowances for sea level rise in
relation to coastal defences, completed first round of
Shoreline Management Plans, improved flood warning systems,
increased funding for improvements of flood and coastal
defence infrastructure)
o Building regulations – considering need to revise regulations to
take account of climate change (revisions are now underway).
o Biodiversity – taken action to strengthen the protection of
SSSIs in the Countryside and Rights of Way Act, which will be
important to help sites adjust to changing climatic conditions,
supporting agri-environment schemes which will help maintain
and enhance biodiversity in the wider countryside.
o Land use planning – preparing guidance to help those involved
in land use planning to respond to climate change.
o Agriculture and forestry – researching vulnerability, providing
guidance on efficient water use by the farming sector, research
into effects of forest growth and yields.
Many of the measures by the UK Government set out above go some way to
requiring different organisations to address climate change adaptation.
Topic
Compatibility with spatial planning
Approach
UKCIP guidance for local authorities includes information on adaptation for
forward planning and development control. For example, it highlights the
impacts of hotter drier summers which could increase pressure on water
resources, and gives an example of a response: to consider potential water
supply/demand issues when siting new development. The ODPM is also
currently preparing guidance on climate change and spatial planning.
National planning policy guidance as set out in PPG’s also takes account of
climate change. PPG12 (Development Plans) sets out environmental
considerations that should be taken into account when drawing up
Development Plans, and includes global climate change, reducing greenhouse
gases (through energy conservation and the efficient use of energy), renewable
energy and flood defence as key considerations, of which the latter is an
adaptation response. PPG25 (Development and flood risk) sets out the
importance the Government attaches to the management and reduction of
flood risk in the land-use planning process, and to acting on a precautionary
basis and taking account of climate change. The Government’s policy is to
reduce the risks to people and the developed and natural environment from
flooding. Appendix A of PPG25 provides background information on the
causes of flooding, determination of the risk posed by flooding, and the impact
that global climate change is likely to have on sea-level rise, increased annual
rainfall and the risk of flooding.
A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the
country’s approach to adaptation
Strengths (15)
 Adaptation research covers a broad spectrum of sectors.
 Well coordinated research programmes.
 Regional adaptation studies are underway.
 Research is stakeholder directed and produced through partnership
working. This produces a high standard of research with considerable
‘buy-in’ from stakeholders.
 UKCIP plays a strong coordinating role, and is the only unit of its kind
Topic
Approach


worldwide.
The UK Government has implemented a variety of measures, targeting a
range of sectors, to contribute to adaptation.
The revised UK Climate Change Programme will identify further
measures to be taken.
Weaknesses (15)
 UKCIP is a small organisation with limited funding and cannot address all
aspects of research required.
 Whilst the research base is good, adaptation is still a developing field, so
there is much more research required.
 Whilst many organisations are starting to think about adaptation further
action is required.
Any indication of future work planned in relation to
climate change and adaptation measures




Key documents used
The Construction Research and Innovation Strategy Panel (CRISP) with
UKCIP has recently completed a preliminary review of research issues
for climate change and transport. Transport is now recognised as an
important area for future research (3).
UKCIP are working with the Department of Trade and Industry, the
Confederation of British Industry, and the devolved administrations to
identify a small number of Trade Associations suitable as UKCIP partner
organizations. They will work with the selected Pilot Partner Group
of Trade Associations to enable them to deliver useful, accurate and
sector-relevant information to their members. This will cover all sectors
of business affected by climate change. (13)
UKCIP are also looking to build on the guidance for local authorities.
UKCIP are also currently considering research areas for 2005
onwards.
1. UKCIP website: http://www.ukcip.org.uk
Topic
Approach
2. Health effects of Climate Change in the UK. Department of Health
(2001), Institute for Environment and Health, Leicester. 290pp.
3. Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate. UKCIP and EPSRC,
(2003), 21 pp.
4. Briefing Note: Climate Change impacts on Buildings. UKCIP
(2003).
5. Climate Change and Local Communities – How prepared are
you? An adaptation guide for local authorities in the UK. UKCIP,
LGA, IDeA, COSLA, Welsh Local Government Association, (2003), 9 pp.
6. Gardening in the Global Greenhouse, Summary Report. Richard
Bisgrove and Professor Paul Hadley, (2002), 17 pp.
7. Climate Change and UK Nature Conservation: A review of the
impact of climate change on UK species and habitat
conservation policy. Hossell, J.E., Briggs, B., and Hepburn, I.R., (2000).
Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, UK. 73pp.
8. Climate Change and Demand for Water, Executive Summary.
CCDeW, Atkins, Cranfield University, SEI (Feb 2003).
9. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptions Research Programme
(CC03); Project Summaries report, 1987-2002. DEFRA.
10. Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change
(MONARCH); Pamphlet. The UK Climate Impacts Programme,
(2000), UKCIP, Oxford. 4pp.
11. Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain and
Ireland: Modelling natural resource responses to climate change
(the MONARCH project): Technical Report. Harrison, P.A., Berry,
P.M. and Dawson, T.P., (eds), (2001), UKCIP, Oxford.
12. Potential UK adaptation strategies for climate change;
Technical report. ERM, May 2000
13. UKCIP Draft Strategy for Working with Business. UKCIP. March
2003.
14. Living with Climate Change in the East of England; Stage 2.
Topic
Approach
LUC, CAG and SQW Limited, Sept 2003.
15. Discussion with Jacquelyn Harman, UKCIP.
16. Foresight Future Flooding, Office of Science and Technology April
2004.
17. Climate change and agriculture in the United Kingdom.
MAFF (no date).
18. Willows, R.I. and Connell, R.K. (Eds.). (2003). Climate adaptation:
Balance between mitigation of and adaptation to
climate change
Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP technical Report. UKCIP,
Oxford.
UKCIP: Adaptation is harder to tackle as organisations don’t know what will
happen/if it will happen. UKCIP are careful to ensure that adaptation is not
forgotten. Noted that Defra are pushing for ‘low-regrets’ or ‘no-regret’
solutions.
Defra: Noted that mitigation is bound in legislative frameworks, which mean
organisations have to take action. This is less the case with adaptation,
where organisations don’t have to do things.
Overall it would seem that mitigation has a higher profile, and that there is
far more pressure on organisations/institutions to undertake actions which
contribute to mitigation than to adaptation, which is a result of the balance
between legislation and guidance for mitigation and adaptation. However, in
terms of research undertaken by Defra (see breakdown of expenditure in
Table 5) it would seem that adaptation and mitigation receive fairly equal
weighting (each receiving approximately £0.5 million per annum).
Table 5: Overall conclusions (UK)
Topic
National/regional funding allocated to climate
change programmes
Approach
The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) leads on a
wide range of measures addressing climate change forecasting, mitigation measures and
adaptation measures. In 2002/2003 Defra commissioned research worth £12 million on
climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (approx. £0.17 million was spent on
the latter).(7) (8) The research commissioned falls within three main work streams:
 Climate Assessment and Prediction Programme, dealing with the science of climate
change.
 Climate Impacts Programme, dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation;
 Climate Mitigation Programme, dealing with responses to climate change.
Of the £11.8 million spent on climate change research in 2002/3, this can be broken
down as follows:
Climate change – prediction and detection3
£9 million
Climate change – earth observation
£0.8 million
Climate change – trace gases and radiative forcing
£0.19 million
4
Climate change – impacts
£1.3 million (of which
£0.5 million funded the
UKCIP programme in
2002)
Climate change – response strategies5
£0.57 million
Focus of country’s approach
3
As noted above, overall it would seem that mitigation has a higher profile than adaptation
in the UK, and that there is far more pressure on organisations/institutions to undertake
actions which contribute to mitigation than to adaptation, which is a result of the balance
between legislation and guidance for mitigation and adaptation. However, in terms of
Which includes the Climate Prediction Programme at the Hadley Centre, which underpins policy needs for basic climate understanding and prediction.
This includes funding UKCIP which is the main organisation responsible for promoting adaptation to climate change.
5
Research under this heading is primarily focussed on emissions from different sectors e.g. buildings, industry, forestry, abandoned coal mines and landfill sites, and also
considers the role of sinks to remove emissions.
4
Topic
Approach
research commissioned by Defra (see breakdown of expenditure above) it would seem
that adaptation and mitigation receive fairly equal weighting (each receiving
approximately £0.5 million per annum). The element of climate change research which
receives the vast majority of funding is climate change prediction and detection (i.e.
forecasting).
During discussions with staff at Defra the difference in balance/emphasis between
mitigation and adaptation was discussed. The greater emphasis on mitigation reflects the
fact that it is driven by legislation whereas adaptation activity relies on guidance, which is
a key reason why adaptation is less well developed. However the contact at Defra noted
that adaptation may not need regulating in the same way as mitigation, but rather require
clear guidance and persuasive messages.
Usefulness for and compatibility with spatial
planning
How well integrated is the approach to
climate change across scientists and policy
makers?
Brief conclusions on positive/good and
negative/poor aspects of the country’s overall
approach to climate change.
Generally the UK’s approach to climate change provides a range of useful outputs to aid
spatial planning, both in terms of contributing to mitigation and adaptation. UKCIP02
scenarios provide a range of data/maps which are accessible to non-technical specialists.
One key area where further information on climate changes would be welcome is in
relation to the geographical impacts of sea level rise. Planning Policy Guidance exists in
relation to planning for renewable energy and planning for flood risk management.
More wide-ranging guidance on spatial planning and climate change more generally is
being developed by ODPM.
The UK approach to forecasting climate change draws on knowledge from scientists
and presents information in an understandable and readily available format. Similarly
information on mitigation, impacts and adaptation is based on sound scientific
knowledge and presented and made readily available to policy makers and planners.
UKCIP: the UK is a leading country in terms of addressing climate change. The Hadley
Centre is a major research centre. UKCIP is moving the risk/uncertainty and adaptation
agenda and it is stakeholder led which is very important to ensure ‘buy-in’.