ANTHONY GOUVEIA
519 A1A North, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL 32082
E-mail: a.gouveia@comcast.net; Telephone: Evenings 904-273-8878; Mobile 904-553-2330
OBJECTIVE
To secure a career opportunity in a senior role with a national/multinational company that will fully leverage my
professional skills, personal attributes and roadmap to success.
SKILLS SUMMARY
 Approximately twenty years experience in demand / sales forecast modeling, market research, data analytics,
inventory management, supply chain management, systems implementation and project management.
 Complete expertise and COE in modeling techniques such as; Econometric modeling, elasticity estimation,
causal modeling, regression analysis, simultaneous equations, time series modeling--ARIMA (Box and
Jenkins), transfer functions, univariate, multivariate, (stationary/non-stationary), exponential smoothing,
linear/non-linear models, quadratic equations, translog model functions, Bayesian theory/analysis, advance
models estimation techniques, conjoint analysis, neural networks, etc.
 Expertise in business processes design, system implementation and applied technology. Have implemented
over five demand planning and forecast systems, as well as other supply chain solutions.
 Have led, managed and directed multi-million dollar projects across multiple disciplines and team members
from many nationalities and cultures. Complete budget responsibilities in projects ranging from $1million to $6
million. Most of these projects addressed all aspects of Supply Chain Planning including, but not limited to:
Demand and supply planning, operations (manufacturing and distribution), logistics and inventory
management.
 Completely commitment to improving forecast accuracy and explanation power by building (whenever possible,
causal forecasting models by incorporating internal and external explanatory variables into the forecasting
model to explain forecast behavior -elasticity (i.e. prices, promotion, special events) business cycles, trends
(economic and business) and competition--live and die by KPI’s.
 Considerable industry experience: Apparel, high-tech, consumer products, retail including grocery, media
publishing, healthcare, manufacturing, insurance, financial services and public utilities.
 Expertise in advanced planning systems (APS), collaborative planning, CPFR. Instrumental in building and
implementing a VMI system for a large multinational apparel manufacturer, wholesale and retail corporation.
 Solid experience in managing, leading and directing technical and non-technical teams, starting new demand
planning and forecasting functions, managing / directing small and large functional departments.
 Extensive consulting experience. Have managed and directed teams and projects internationally: Latin America
and Europe, and fully understands international diversity, cultures and social habits. Fluency in two foreign
languages--Portuguese and Spanish.
 Published white papers and articles in demand planning & forecast in leading journals.
 Outstanding people skills, teamwork, commitment to excellence, passionate, articulate, polished and dedicated.
EMPLOYMENT HISTORY
Currently: Winn-Dixie Stores, Jacksonville, FL. Senior Forecast Manager. Responsible for starting up a new forecast
function at Winn-Dixie by developing best practices supply chain processes and forecasting techniques/methodology to
support the procurement/replenishment process for general merchandising, groceries and perishables, in order to
improve in-stock positions and optimize inventories. Presently building an interim forecast solution for perishables using
SPSS solution software, and working on company wide demand planning and forecast enterprise solution. Subject
matter expert in other work streams: Category Management, Ad & Promo and Price Optimization, engaging in the
implementation of integrated business solutions.
May 2003 to May 2004, Los Angeles Times , Los Angeles, CA. Temporary position: Chief Forecaster and
consultant: Responsible for developing forecast models for the Circulation department. Key objective: To build causal
models to accurately predict circulation and stops by market and by service type. Developed forecast models in SAS
and SPSS including: Multiple regression, causal, ARIMA (including transfer functions), group equation systems, 2-SLS
and other modeling/estimation techniques. Total forecast error (aggregated) has declined from the previous 25-50
percent forecast error, to well under 5%. This reduction in forecast error has significantly contributed to improvement in
ROI. In addition, I applied modeling techniques and statistical analysis to estimate elasticities, demand lifts, special
events and price points for marketing campaigns, price changes and other promotional initiatives. This breakthrough
from traditional time-series forecast modeling techniques has resulted, not only in forecast accuracy but also in
accurately predicting and explaining demand curve changes such as declining circulation and increased stops.
May 2001 to May 2003 - Syncata Consulting, 2151 Michelson Drive, Suite 190, Irvine, CA 92612. Senior Demand
Planning and Forecasting Manager: Developed the supply chain demand planning and forecast consulting practice by
assembling a strong forecast and modeling consulting team to compete in this space--both nationally and internationally.
Responsible for managing the team, RFP’s, client presentations, publications in forecasting techniques, project
managing, established alliances and training. I was the subject matter expert (SME) in technical and non-technical
forecasting across all company projects. Led a team of consultants in two major auto manufacturers implementing
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ANTHONY GOUVEIA
519 A1A North, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL 32082
E-mail: a.gouveia@comcast.net; Telephone: Evenings 904-273-8878; Mobile 904-553-2330
demand planning and forecast solution system to forecast new cars and aftermarket business. Implemented an
inventory management system and CRM for the same two auto manufactures. Major activities included: Designing new
demand planning and forecast processes, data validation, causal variables/inputs, forecast methodology, estimating
forecast models, designing metrics, reports and interfaces. Developed a new methodology/technique for forecasting new
products. Wrote/ published a white paper on collaborative multifunctional demand forecasting.
Feb 1997 to May 01 - PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, 575 Anton Blvd, Suite 1100, Irvine, CA 92626 . Principal,
Demand Planning and Forecast Consultant: Led several i2 Demand planning implementations (demand
planning/forecasting, supply chain optimization and distribution) projects for high-tech and CPG companies.
Critical milestones included: Analysis and documentation of current processes, complete design of future/"To-Be"
business/demand planning processes, requirements gathering, best practices, business case, critical success factors,
performance metrics, product hierarchies and interfaces, business modeling, forecast modeling, testing, training and
rollout. These multi-million dollar projects substantially improved forecast accuracy, shortened cycle times, improved
customer service through fill-rates and reduced/optimized inventories. ‘Subject matter expert' (SME) in demand planning
and forecast for other projects/clients. Built hundreds of forecast models using modeling techniques/methodologies such
as: Econometric modeling, elasticity estimation, causal modeling, regression analysis, simultaneous equations, time
series modeling--ARIMA (Box and Jenkins), transfer functions, univariate, multivariate, (stationary/non-stationary),
exponential smoothing, linear/non-linear models, quadratic equations, translog model functions, Bayesian
theory/analysis, advance models estimation techniques, conjoint analysis, neural networks, etc. Prepared budgets,
project plans, RFI's, client proposals and gave presentations.
The following is a partial list of projects:
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Demand Forecast project lead for a high-tech multinational with a very complex supply chain. Led a team of
consultants and client staff in the implementation of a new forecast process and technology solution.
Managed a large supply chain project for a CPG food company. The scope of this project encompassed the
implementation of demand planning, forecasting, supply chain optimization and transportation planning.
Provided SME in forecasting and forecast processes to other consumer goods and high-tech multinationals.
This work normally included part-time and/or short-term engagements at the clients or office.
Program Office: Managed all spin-off activities for a global high-tech corporation (pre-IPO). Managed an
integrated project plan for all functional areas and provided expert advice to functional leaders and executives,
internal and external. Managed a large team of consultants and non-consultants - internal and external.
Lead a supply chain project in South America (Argentina) implementing i2's demand planning. Worked as SME
and advised other PwC consultants and client staff on demand planning 'best practices', forecasting business
process, performance measurement, data requirements and modeling, interfaces, product and geo hierarchies,
and prepared an integrated project plan.
PwC - London Office, February 2001 to May 2001. Lead/Managed a large international team of consultants
and client resources in Europe (Budapest, Hungry) for a major petroleum company to review supply chain
processes, business practices, IT infrastructure, APS evaluation and an implementation road map for future
business releases. Focused on future business processes, forecast methodology and enable technology.
Delivered the project on time and on budget.
October 1995 to February 1997 - Levi Strauss & Company, 1155 Battery Street, San Francisco, CA 94111. Demand
Forecast Manager: Implemented a Vendor Managed Inventory System (VMI) and managed the forecast by SKU and
planned inventories for a large number of retailers totaling $1billion in sales. The implementation of VMI brought about
considerable increase in ROI due to improvement in demand visibility, 97% fill rates, increased turns and optimized
inventories. Major activities and milestones were: Analysis of vendor relationships and willingness to participate in VMI,
analysis of vendor data (sales and inventory patterns), establish vendor requirements (sales, inventory, turns, service
levels and weeks of supply), built system based on vendor requirements, identified business technology solution
application software and hardware needed, scripting and testing system, monitoring and training. Managed client
expectations and maintained the system for a portion of VMI clients (Federated). The system dynamically forecasted
point of sales, planned (optimized) inventories, service levels and weeks of supply. Built thousands of forecast models:
Econometric, causal modeling, multiple regression, time series modeling--ARIMA (Box and Jenkins), transfer functions,
univariate, multivariate, (stationary/non-stationary), exponential smoothing, linear/non-linear models, quadratic
equations, Bayesian theory/analysis and advance models estimation and techniques to predict point of sales by product,
customer and region.
March 1993 to October 1995 - James Hardie Building Products, 26300 La Alameda, Suite 250, Mission Viejo, CA 9269.
Senior Manager, Research and Forecasting: Started a new demand forecast and market research department. Built
forecasting models across major segments and markets to forecast demand for building materials. Performed market
research analysis including Porter Analysis ("Managing For Value" techniques for strategic positioning, pricing,
competition and segment attractiveness), conjoint analysis, surveys and other methods to better understand the demand
for building materials. In addition, applied penetration curve analysis technique/diffusion methods to predict new product
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ANTHONY GOUVEIA
519 A1A North, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL 32082
E-mail: a.gouveia@comcast.net; Telephone: Evenings 904-273-8878; Mobile 904-553-2330
demand. Applied advanced mathematical models and techniques, together with internal and external data to better
understand competition, market potential, market share, pricing and profitability. Because of this creative work in
modeling, the company grew in excess of 150% per year for three consecutive years. I played a leading role in the
implementation of a new ERP system and I was a team manager responsible for inventory planning for selected Home
Depot and Lowe’s stores.
January 1991 to March 1993 - Kaiser Permanente, 393 East Walnut Street, Pasadena, CA 91188. Forecasting
Manager: Developed a new industry demand forecasting and membership system for Kaiser Permanente, using SAS
and SPSS software. I was a key player in the implementation of new products (including marketing, market research,
pricing, positioning, competition, and profitability). Designed a statewide productivity measurement system for all clinics
and hospitals. Worked closely with outside consultants on a large IT implementation and a strategic planning and reengineering project. This project led to a new reorganization structure and introduction of new products and services,
with a substantial economic impact for Kaiser. Published economic/demographic forecasts and analysis that directly
affected the organization.
July 1985 to January 1991 - The Automobile Club of Southern California, 2601 South Figueroa Street, Los Angeles, CA
90007. Sr. Financial Analyst and Forecaster: Developed/built a "state-of-the-art" forecasting and strategic planning
computer simulation system using COMSHARE software. This model simultaneously optimized investment portfolio
allocation and generated all financial statements. Developed market intelligence strategies and other market research
techniques to support business development (i.e. pricing, competition, insurance statistics, studies, demographic
statistics, etc.). In addition, led the company in the development of actuarial mathematical models for AAA insurance.
Published economic and demographic forecasts that affected the insurance and AAA services industry.
March 1982 to June 1985 - BC Hydro and Power Authority, 1265 Howe Street, Vancouver, BC V6Z 2C8 – Canada.
Economist: Built a "state of the art" simultaneous econometric model for BC Hydro (a major Power Utility). Applied a
hybrid of economics, econometrics, statistics and engineering techniques (used translog production functions and
advanced econometrics) to estimate demand for electricity and natural gas by market and sector for BC Hydro.
Presented this model at the Energy Economic Forum Conference in San Francisco. This model has been published in a
leading national and international Journal. Led the preparation of load forecasts by sector and built elasticity studies.
Published economic forecasts for the Western World Countries and OPEC, and forecasted/published economic and
financial outlook for British Columbia, Canada and the United States.
1980-1982 (Part-Time)- Bell Canada Enterprises, Montreal, Quebec – Canada. Economist: Built/estimated advanced
econometric and statistical demand models to estimate price elasticities and other significant causal parameters to be
used in rate case applications and to forecast future demand and revenues for the telecommunications industry. Led a
multi million-dollar research study using econometric and transfer functions ARIMA modeling to measure the impact of
TV advertising in toll calling by assigned markets (tested four markets: status quo, decrease, medium increase and
maximum increase). Developed an innovative mathematical measurement system to test the results. Co-published the
study in the Bell Labs Journal: "Toll Advertising Tracking Study".
EDUCATION
 MA. Economics and Econometrics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 1980
 BA. Economics and Finance, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 1978
PUBLICATIONS
 Collaborative Multifunctional Demand Planning/Forecast: Syncata Corporation, November 2001
 New Product Forecasting using Diffusion Modeling Techniques: Syncata Corporation, April 2002
 "STEEM: A Sectoral Energy/Economic Model for British Colombia", - Published in 'The Energy Industries in
Transition 1985-2000' Volume 1, 1984.
 "Toll Advertising Tracking Study", Bell Canada Enterprises 1982 Bell Journal.
LANGUAGES
 Fluent in English, Portuguese and Spanish
AFFILIATIONS
 APICS, National Association of Business Forecast
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