LOW-EMISSION POLAND 2050
KUBA GOGOLEWSKI, CEE BANKWATCH NETWORK
VISION OF POLISH ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION
 CLIMATE PROTECTION FACTS
 fall of emissions since 1988 while GDP has more than doubled in the same period in Poland
 climate debate in Poland - 3 government vetoes of EU climate targets -> there is no responsibility
felt (or rather there is strong industry lobby and all the functioning(!!) EU ETS systems may have
serious social impact on Polish society - so the decision is politically unpopular etc.)
 But the need for change is clear... questions to solve:
 nuclear power - site? cost? time? educated staff (no experience)? etc… but possible and
manageable -> there is a real need for public discussion - not just top-down “discussion”
(rather gov. pro-nuclear lobby) as it is now
 the debate should be about acceptable level of risk (waste, security) among public.
(and about impacts of nuclear replacing coal on: society, employment, environment
and climate protection targets (of EU and Poland). Or are there any other possibilities
(RES, shale?)
 The role of coal is under discussion (115 000 thousand people in mining industry - social
issue).
 increased import of hard coal due to uncompetitiveness of Polish one due to surplus of
American and South African coal on the world market.
 Declining production of lignite - there is a need to solve public opposition to open new
sites.
 role of Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) - still rather unclear and futuristic project.
 integrated EU energy market (functioning without any deformations) will lead to loss in
Polish energy sector competitiveness - > coal will probably be switched for other more
competitive source -> social issue again.
 renewables - law obligations for efficiency, share etc… - but no political party clearly support
RES (X strong traditional industry lobby)
 shale gas - high expectations but the reality is far more grey
 POLISH CLIMATE/ENERGY POLICY
 Poland still has time for choice (but feasibility then is unclear) - there are two scenarios possible:
 limited development scenario - seems like the official one - (obviously) not so good, rather
neutral for economy and rather status quo in energy sector (the sector may be even more
dependent on coal)
 modernization scenario - RES to take a place (but rather equal than dominant - more possible
scenarios), gas to take greater share, economical growth, opportunities for industry etc. obviously the better way to take
 buildings - efficiency improvements, retrofits -> real potential for energy savings
 electricity - greater share of gas (ideally with CCS) in production. Plus more electric cars
on demand side
 but:
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questionable economic growth (crisis?), EU ETS system?, shale?, price of other
sources of energy, technology development etc etc. -> classical problem of every
vision.
“Anything that is good for the industry is good for Poland” - polish ministry of sf.
lack of willingness to support more RES than obliged for meet EU 20-20-20 Poland
targets
Current problem: combustion of biomass with coal -> company get green
certificates - so they are producing “green energy” plus there is an oversupply of
green certificates -> the collapse of the system.
Letní škola Výhledy české energetiky, 4. 9. 2013, zapsal Tomáš Trubačík