This expectation of sea level rise comes not from any historical record—it’s
not a projection from real-world observations—but from computer climate
models whose predictive skill is widely questioned. Professor John Christy said
a few days ago in a public comment concerning climate models to the US
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (pp 2-3) that the models are not
suitable for future projections because they fail to reproduce the real world.
Here is his graph showing the marked and growing discrepancy between the
model output and observations.
The increasing divergence between model output and observed temperatures began
about 1990 (35 years ago), or even earlier. Why should we believe the models?
Why does the UN tell us the world is warming just as the models predicted? Click
to enlarge.
He described a scientific test that proves this beyond a shadow of a doubt. In
numerous experimental runs of an international set of climate models using
historical data, all the models consistently display one significant warming
response—rapid heating in the tropical atmosphere if the atmosphere were
being warmed by greenhouse gases.
But that region is not warming, which means the models are consistently
producing, since about 1996, an incorrect response to greenhouse gases. This
should have been acknowledged as a failure by the IPCC because the AR5 has
evidence of it, hidden away in the Supplementary Material.
Thus, the models are not suitable for predictions of temperature, precipitation,
humidity, droughts, storms or sea level because they predict significantly more
warming than is observed and therefore more sea level rise, etc., than is
warranted.