Table S1 The CMIP5 climate models and the central year of 30-year period when the 30-yr
averaged GMT first increase, by 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C, relative to 1971-2000. The symbol
‘-’ indicates that no 30-year period was found corresponding to the indicated GMT rise. The
models with the symbol ‘*’ indicate the Climate System Model, whereas the remaining models
are classed as Earth System Model.
ID
Model
0 ˚C
0.5 ˚C
1 ˚C
1.5 ˚C
2 ˚C
2.5 ˚C
1
BCC-CSM1.1
1985
2004
2025
2041
2052
2063
2
BCC-CSM1.1.M
1985
2002
2018
2037
2052
2065
3
CanESM2
1985
2001
2014
2027
2039
2049
4
CCSM4*
1985
2005
2021
2037
2050
2062
5
CESM1-BGC
1985
2006
2023
2039
2051
2063
6
CESM1-CAM5*
1985
2008
2023
2036
2046
2055
7
CMCC-CESM*
1985
2011
2029
2041
2051
2061
8
CMCC-CM*
1985
2008
2025
2038
2048
2059
9
CMCC-CMS*
1985
2006
2023
2035
2046
2056
10
CNRM-CM5
1985
2008
2027
2042
2054
2065
11
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0*
1985
2010
2028
2040
2051
2061
12
FGOALS-g2*
1985
2010
2028
2044
2059
2072
13
GFDL-CM3*
1985
2002
2014
2026
2038
2048
14
GFDL-CM2.1*
1985
2007
-
-
-
-
15
GFDL-ESM2G
1985
2008
2033
2050
2064
2077
16
GFDL-ESM2M
1985
2010
2033
2050
2065
2080
17
GISS-E2-H*
1985
2009
2027
2043
2058
2072
18
GISS-E2-H-CC
1985
2008
2033
2072
-
-
1
19
GISS-E2-R*
1985
2011
2031
2049
2067
2085
20
GISS-E2-R-CC
1985
2010
2039
2072
-
-
21
HadCM3*
1985
2004
-
-
-
-
22
INM-CM4
1985
2020
2042
2057
2069
2083
23
IPSL-CM5A-LR
1985
2002
2019
2031
2042
2052
24
IPSL-CM5A-MR
1985
2005
2020
2033
2043
2053
25
IPSL-CM5B-LR*
1985
2013
2030
2044
2056
2068
26
MIROC4h*
1985
2004
2018
-
-
-
27
MIROC5*
1985
2005
2024
2041
2054
2066
28
MIROC-ESM
1985
2008
2021
2031
2042
2052
29
MIROC-ESM1985
2007
2019
2031
2040
2050
CHEM*
30
MPI-ESM-LR
1985
2008
2025
2042
2054
2065
31
MPI-ESM-MR*
1985
2007
2026
2042
2053
2063
32
MRI-CGCM3*
1985
2019
2036
2049
2060
2072
33
NorESM1-M*
1985
2010
2028
2044
2058
2070
34
NorESM1-ME
1985
2008
2028
2043
2055
2066
2