Brief Assessment of the Hydroelectric Power Generation Potential of the State of Connecticut using a Matlab Based Model Miguel A. Camelo Rosas MANE 6960H01 Mathematical Modeling of Energy and Environmental Systems Fall 2014 Hydroelectric power is being utilized in Connecticut today as a clean and renewable source of energy. By harnessing the gravitational force of flowing water to turn a generator, electrical power can be produced. Many different designs of turbines exist to extract the energy from the flowing water and readily depends on the flow conditions and geography of the land. Not only is hydroelectric power being utilized in the United States, but worldwide as well. As fossil fuels diminish, the need for clean renewable energy will increase, leading nations across the globe to consider power generation alternatives which have future generations in mind and were previously thought too expensive. Connecticut has three major rivers flowing through it, all three of which empty into Long Island Sound. These three rivers are called the Connecticut River, the Housatonic River, and the Thames River. Many other smaller rivers and tributaries help form these major rivers in Connecticut such as the Farmington River, Shepaug River, and Shetucket River. Many rivers today are already being used to create clean renewable energy through Hydroelectric Plants in Connecticut. There are 31 active Hydroelectric Power plants in Connecticut designated by blue circles in Figure 1 below. Only 15 of these plants have name plate capacities over 1 MW and some date back to as early as 1903 (HydroGIS). Figure 1: Active Hydroelectric Dams in Connecticut (HydroGIS) Total name plate capacity of conventional hydroelectric power in Connecticut is 130MW and 31 MW of pump storage, though hydroelectric power plants rarely operate to the hypothetical maximum power possible for a number of reasons such as water availability and electricity demand (Hadjerioua, 9). Actual hydroelectric generation in Connecticut for the month of July was 26GWh (EIA). At the current rate of production in July, the net generation in the CT for Conventional Hydroelectric Sector would be 312 GWh. Figure 2 compares the projected net generation of 2014 to the past 4 years actual hydroelectric generation. The difference between the actual power generated and the name plate capacity is called the Capacity Factor (πΆπ ). πΆπ is the ratio of the actual amount of energy produced to the maximum power possible. In a recent 1 DOE study the capacity factor for Connecticut is 42.3%, and 52.2% for the North East as a whole (Hadjerioua, 9). Figure 2 also displays an estimated GWh based upon the DOEs capacity factor for Connecticut. CT Hydroelectric Generation (GWh) Net Generation - CT Hydropower Sector 600 550 500 450 400 Actual GWh 350 Estimated GWh 300 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Figure 2: Net Hydroelectric Generation in CT from 2010 to 2014 (DOE) Hydroelectricity is not Connecticut’s only source of electrical power, as the state produced over 35,500 GWh in 2013 (EIA). Figure 3 shows the Net Electricity Generation Breakdown for Connecticut. NET ELECTRICITY GENERATION CT - JULY 2014 Natural GasFired 50.23% PetroleumFired 0.16% Hydroelectric 0.81% Coal-Fired 1.59% Nuclear 45.37% Other Renewables 1.84% Figure 3: Net Electricity Generation in CT for July 2014 (EIA) 50.23% of the 3,260 GWh of energy in Connecticut during the month of July was produced by natural gas fired power plants. Petroleum and natural gas are not found naturally here in Connecticut and those products must be imported. 45.37% of electrical energy was produced in Connecticut by Millstone Power Plant. This power plant is capable of producing over 16,385 GWh annually (EIA). Petroleum and Coal-Fired power plants account for 0.16% and 1.59% respectively. Renewable resources only account for 2.56% of the total electricity 2 produced in July, only 0.81% of that can be attributed to hydroelectric production. The remaining 1.84% of renewable electricity generated is attributed to Municipal Solid Waste management and solar generation. When evaluating Connecticut for additional hydroelectric power generation, one must not only consider the hydropower producing facilities but also the dams surrounding them or upstream used to control flooding or to create storage capacity. Connecticut has over 700 dams registered with the National Inventory of Dams (NID) ranging from small ponds for farming irrigation to the Saville Dam, which holds the Barkhamsted Reservoir (NID). Of those 700 dams, 47 are either associated with or house hydroelectric generation equipment and are available in Appendix Figure A1 (NHAAP). A recent study was conducted in 2013 by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to better characterize potential new locations for hydroelectric generation, specifically looking at non powered dams (NPD). NPDs have theoretically already incurred many of the costs and environmental impacts of constructing a dam and are prime candidates to be developed for energy purposes. Excluding the 47 dams already associated with generating hydroelectric power, the ORNL narrowed down the list of NPDs looking for potential hydroelectric candidates capable of producing over 1 MW of power. By making a series of assumptions based on available stream flow data, dam location and geometry, National Hydropower Asset Assessment Program (NHAAP) Baseline Database, National Hydrography Dataset, and many others, ORNL was able to narrow the search down to the top five potential NPDs shown below circled in red in Figure 4. Figure 4: Non Powered Dams Hydroelectric Potential Greater than 1 MW (HydroGIS) The potential capacity of these dams can be estimated by the following equation (1) (Hadjerioua, 10). (1) πππ‘πππ‘πππ π»π¦ππππππ€ππ πΊππππππ‘πππ (ππβ) = π ∗ Δπ» ∗ η ∗ T /11800 ΔH (ft) is the gross head available for power generation, Q (cfs) is average flow during the generation period, π is efficiency assumed to be 0.85, and T is time (hours) (Hadjerioua, 9). With the provided data from the sources above one can calculate the potential annual generation. Potential Name Plate Capacity can be estimated using equation (2) below. 3 (2) πππ‘πππ‘πππ πΆππππππ‘π¦ (ππ) = πππ‘πππ‘πππ πππ€ππ πΊππππππ‘πππ (ππβ)/(πΆπ ∗ π·ππ¦π ∗ π»ππ’ππ ) Using the value found in equation (1) and plugging into equation (2) using the previously mentioned πΆπ factor one can compute the potential name plate capacity of a desired location. Applying the above two equations to estimate the potential capacity of the 5 NPDs results in Table 1. A Matlab program was used to retrieve the data from an excel file and model these two hydroelectric power generation equations for each month of the year. The data was obtained from the government study and the only modification was the removal of the NPDs that were not in Connecticut. The results were then output by the Matlab program and both the raw data plus these results were used to build this table. It should be noted that the difference in the results from the study and the Matlab program was very small. The code for the Matlab Program and its output can be seen on Appendix C. Dam Name ENFIELD DAM PHELPS DAM - NEPAUG RESERVOIR THOMASTON DAM WEST THOMPSON DAM SAVILLE DAM Potential Annual Generation (MWh) NHAAP Regional Capacity Factor (%) Potential Capacity (MW) Potential Turbine Design City Water Source Year Built Estimated Head (ft) Avg Annual Flow (cfs) ENFIELD CONNECTICUT RIVER 1825 12 16879 128320 52.2% 28.1 Kaplan UNIONVILLE FARMINGTON RIVER 1916 46 723 20986 52.2% 4. Kaplan THOMASTON NAUGATUCK RIVER 1960 132 185 15430 52.2% 3.4 Francis PUTNAM QUINEBAUG RIVER 1965 65 317 13005 52.2% 2.8 Kaplan NEW HARTFORD FARMINGTON RIVER 1940 94 109 64677 52.2% 1.4 Kaplan Table 1: Non-Powered Dam Locations in CT suitable for Potential Hydroelectric Development(Hadjerioua, Data in Appendix B) Out of these 5 locations, the Enfield Dam on the Connecticut River holds the most potential for power generation at 28.1 MW. This can also be seen on the figure 5 below, where a plot for the hydropower energy [MWh] per Month was calculated for each of the 5 NPD dams and output by the Matlab Program. With high average annual flow rates, nearly doubling in the spring (HydoGIS), this NPD is ideal for a hydroelectric installation. The highest hydropower generation was in the month of April for all of them. With its high average annual flows and low estimated head the turbine selected for the Enfield Dam would be of a Kaplan Design, with variable pitch blades to accommodate for the seasonal change in flow. Potential turbine design was selected using Figure A2 in the appendix (HydroNI). A Kaplan turbine was also selected for the Phelps Dam, West Thompson Dam, and Saville Dam based on Appendix Figure A2. Thomaston Dam would most likely be fitted with a Francis turbine due to the large estimated head available and would be on the extreme of a Kaplan design. 4 Figure 5: Hydroelectric Power Energy vs Month for each of the 5 NPDs in CT as calculated by the Matlab Program If all five of these NPDs were developed they potentially would add 40.3 MW to the CT total name plate capacity and could theoretically generate an additional 184.14 GWh of clean renewable energy with a relatively low risk, low impact to the environment, shorter time frame than new construction. Additional fish ladders may be added to aid migratory fish a safe passage around the newly developed hydro dams if they do not already exist. Another study was conducted in 2014 by DOE and ORLN to characterize the nation’s undeveloped streams hydropower potential (Kao). This study was called the New Stream Reach Development Project (NSD) and focused on identifying streams with high energy density, topographical analysis to estimate effected surface area and potential storage, and both natural and social environmental effects. With the use of sophisticated computer software, 18 different data base systems, and high resolution topographical maps, ORLN identified 10 individual stream reaches with the potential capacity greater than 1 MW (Kao/HydroGIS). Additionally each one of these sites was considered for environmental effects such as, endangered species, critical habitats, land ownership, water quality, transmission line installation, and recreational use. Using complex computer software, layers of data were created, combining environmental data and locations with topographical and hydrological data maps. 8000m to 800m buffer zones were created around these locations as to minimize the environmental impact (Kao, 12). Many different layers of data were used to select these locations and a sample can be seen in Table 2.2 in Appendix B. Some stream reaches even had multiple potential development locations as seen 5 in Table 2 Below. Sites, like in the NPD evaluation above, capable of producing less than 1MW were excluded from this evaluation. The results from the NPD evaluation are summarized below. Watershed Name West Branch Farmington River Headwaters Farmington River Outlet Farmington River Middle Quinebaug River Lower Quinebaug River Konkapot RiverHousatonic River Macedonia BrookHousatonic River Candlewood LakeHousatonic River Shepaug River Eightmile BrookHousatonic River Number of >1MW NSD Reaches Hydraulic Head (ft) Avg Annual Flows cfs Estimated Surface Inundation (ac) Potential Capacity (MW) Potential Annual Generation (MWh) 2 36.368111 504.313587 302.9216 2.637929 16013.92 3 33.650482 776.395476 216.7822 5.694875 34571.54 2 36.204069 1287.867337 20.97879 6.704463 40700.39 1 16.4042 1045.64 100.5949 1.233224 6713.988 3 15.44182 1538.167596 4.93163 5.103321 27783.78 6 17.56343 1494.947379 106.3214 11.33465 65255.58 6 18.307087 1655.775381 158.12 13.06785 75233.95 3 15.124672 2245.995967 151.476 7.330333 42202.03 2 58.677823 312.250019 144.9813 2.628221 15131.14 1 19.06168 3404.2388 45.2528 4.665369 26859.36 Potential Turbine Design Kaplan Table 2: New Stream Development Locations, Statistics, and Potential Generation (Kao, Appendix B2) Some stream reaches contain multiple NSD potential dam locations and during the selection process tail water and inundated surface area were considered before adding additional hydroelectric locations. Developing all 29 potential plants on the 10 new stream reaches has a total annual potential of 350.5 GWh of clean renewable energy and adds 60.4 MW to the total hydroelectric name plate capacity of Connecticut. Potential capacity and generation were generated from the above head and flow data while utilizing the above equations (1) and (2). An updated πΆπ value ranging from 69-65% was used to calculate NSD potential energy generation; assuming new and efficient technology would be installed at those locations. The results from this study that were relevant to Connecticut are show here in table 2. It is not surprising that all potential turbine designs selected for these potential hydroelectric locations are all of the Kaplan design. Due to the nature of the evaluation, the streams were quantified in an “as is” condition to create the least environmental impact and inundated surface area resulting in relatively low hydraulic heads and moderate flow rates best suited for Kaplan turbines. Hydroelectric power is being utilized in Connecticut today as a clean and renewable source of energy but not every potential hydro location is being utilized. With sophisticated computer software and logged data, the DOE with the help of ORNL was able to compile a list of untapped hydroelectric potential in untapped streams and existing dams. Environmental effects were taken into consideration by the DOE during their research for both NPD and NSD projects. Favorable locations to begin with NPDs, as most of the cost and environmental impact as already were associated with these existing dams. By retrofitting them with hydroelectric turbines, we would be able to boost our capacity to create clean and renewable energy with the least amount of environmental impact. NSD plants utilize untapped stream potential in Connecticut yielding much more power but are more intrusive but efforts were made when selecting these locations to minimize environmental effects. By utilizing the few NPD and NSD 6 locations above, Connecticut could add 101 MW to the name plate capacity of the state increasing it to 231MW. Additionally these locations could produce an estimated 535GWh annually increasing the hydroelectric generation total to 847GWh. This increase would allow Connecticut to increase its renewable energy produced, reduce its dependency on fossil fuels, and help reach its goal of being a net exporter of energy by 2020 (EIA). As can be seen by the numbers presented, Connecticut does not currently have a large component of its electricity generation coming from hydroelectric energy and the undeveloped potential examined in this paper of around 100 MW would not greatly affect the big picture. The state's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) calls for 27% of electricity sold in the state to come from renewable energy sources by 2020. Most of that electricity is expected to come from sources such as onshore or offshore wind, solar power, sustainable biomass, and fuel cells. Furthermore, the RPS requires that 4% must come from commercial and industrial waste heat recovery or conservation. Connecticut electricity providers are meeting their RPS obligations in large part by purchasing Renewable Energy Credits from other New England states. In the future, more renewable power may need to be imported from New York and Canada (Connecticut State Energy Profile). In order to meet the aggressive targets set by these aggressive renewable energy targets, the most feasible option for expanding the component that hydroelectric plays in the overall generation of electricity is to import them from nearby Quebec, or even neighboring states with more potential. As this brief study showed, there is not very large undeveloped potential, and even if the few sites that show some feasibility were developed, they would not contribute a large amount of electricity. The challenges that come with importing renewable energy from elsewhere are not to be dismissed. Transportation is an area where a lot of losses occur and there are other factors, like dependence and political issues. Hopefully, Connecticut will find the right mix and meet the aggressive goals it has set for itself. 7 Works Cited DOE. "U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis." Electricity Data Browser. Department of Energy, Dec. 2013. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. EIA. "Connecticut State Energy Profile." Connecticut Profile. US Department of Energy, July 2014. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. Hadjerioua, Boualem. "An Assessment of Energy Potential at Non-Powered Damns in the United States." Wind & Water Power Program (2012): n. pag. Apr. 2012. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. HydroGIS. "HydroGIS Viewer." NHAAP. NHAAP/DOE/ORNL, Feb.-Mar. 2012. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. HydroNI. "Turbine Application Chart - Pre Feasibility." Hydro NI. N.p., 2008. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. KAO, Shih-Chieh. "New Stream-reach Development: A Comprehensive Assessment of Hydropower Energy Potential in the United States." Wind & Water Power Technologies Office (2014): n. pag. Apr. 2014. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. NHAAP. "NHAAP | National Hydropower Asset Assessment Program." NHAAP | National Hydropower Asset Assessment Program. Department of Energy/Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Jan. 2014. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. NID. "CorpsMap: The National Inventory of Dams (NID)." CorpsMap: The National Inventory of Dams (NID). Army Corps of Engineers, May 2013. Web. 24 Oct. 2014. Connecticut State Energy Profile. (2014, March 27). Web. December 1, 2014, from US Energy Information Administration: http://www.eia.gov/state/print.cfm?sid=CT 8 Appendix A Figure A1: Essential Dams in CT Associated with Hydroelectric Generation (HydroGIS) Figure A2: Turbine Application Chart (HydroNI) 9 Appendix B KAO, Shih-Chieh. "New Stream-reach Development: A Comprehensive Assessment of Hydropower Energy Potential in the United States.",pg 10. Raw Data – Non powered Dams (NPDs) See Data on Files NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW.xls and NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls Raw Data – New Stream Reach Development (NSD) See Data on Files NHAAP_NSD_SR_01_v1.xls and NHAAP_NSD_SR_01_v1_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls 10 Appendix C Matlab Code %Power Generation Simple Model for Non-Powered Dams (greated than 1MW) in CT %Uses data in an Excel File to calculate Potential Annual Hydropower Energy %and Potential Annual Capacity clear all clc %Input data from Excel File containing information on Potential Power Generating Dams %Flow [cfs] %Defined as the flow rate leaving a hydraulic structure Enfield_Q = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'R4:AC4'); Phelps_Q = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'R5:AC5'); Thomaston_Q = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'R6:AC6'); WestThompson_Q = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'R7:AC7'); Saville_Q = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'R8:AC8'); %Avg Mean Yearly Flow[cfs] Q_yr = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'Q4:Q8'); %Hydraulic head [ft] %Defined as the height difference between headwater and tailwater elevations H = xlsread('NHAAP_NPD_FY11_1MW_MIGUEL_EDIT.xls', 'NPD', 'N4:N8'); %Efficiency [no units] %Defined as hydropower generating equipment efficiency %Comprised of two components: turbine efficiency and generator efficiency %Assumed to be 85% as in DOE Study (Hadjerouia, pg 9) eff = .85; %Time in one month [hours] T = 365*24/12; %Conversion factor into SI units Conv = 11800; %Enfield Potential Hydropower Energy[MWh] for i=1:12 Enfield_PHE(i) = Enfield_Q(i)*H(1)*T*eff/Conv; end Enfield_PHE; %Phelps Potential Hydropower Energy[MWh] for i=1:12 Phelps_PHE(i) = Phelps_Q(i)*H(2)*T*eff/Conv; end Phelps_PHE; %Thomaston Potential Hydropower Energy[MWh] for i=1:12 11 Thomaston_PHE(i) = Thomaston_Q(i)*H(3)*T*eff/Conv; end Thomaston_PHE; %WestThompson Potential Hydropower Energy[MWh] for i=1:12 WestThompson_PHE(i) = WestThompson_Q(i)*H(4)*T*eff/Conv; end WestThompson_PHE; %Saville Potential Hydropower Energy[MWh] for i=1:12 Saville_PHE(i) = Saville_Q(i)*H(5)*T*eff/Conv; end Saville_PHE; %Enfield Total Potential Yearly Hydropower Energy[MWh] YR_Enfield_PHE=0; for i=1:12 YR_Enfield_PHE=YR_Enfield_PHE+Enfield_PHE(i); end YR_Enfield_PHE %Phelps Total Potential Yearly Hydropower Energy[MWh] YR_Phelps_PHE=0; for i=1:12 YR_Phelps_PHE=YR_Phelps_PHE+Phelps_PHE(i); end YR_Phelps_PHE %Thomaston Total Potential Yearly Hydropower Energy[MWh] YR_Thomaston_PHE=0; for i=1:12 YR_Thomaston_PHE=YR_Thomaston_PHE+Thomaston_PHE(i); end YR_Thomaston_PHE %WestThompson Total Potential Yearly Hydropower Energy[MWh] YR_WestThompson_PHE=0; for i=1:12 YR_WestThompson_PHE=YR_WestThompson_PHE+WestThompson_PHE(i); end YR_WestThompson_PHE %Saville Total Potential Yearly Hydropower Energy[MWh] YR_Saville_PHE=0; for i=1:12 YR_Saville_PHE=YR_Saville_PHE+Saville_PHE(i); end YR_Saville_PHE %Total Potential Yearly Hydropower Energy (all of the sites added up) [MWh] Total_PHE = YR_Enfield_PHE+YR_Phelps_PHE+YR_Thomaston_PHE+YR_WestThompson_PHE+YR_Saville_ PHE 12 Months = (1:1:12); plot(Months,Enfield_PHE,Months,Phelps_PHE,Months,Thomaston_PHE,Months,WestTho mpson_PHE,Months,Saville_PHE) title('Hydroelectric Power Energy vs Month') xlabel('Months') ylabel('Power Energy [MWh]') legend('Enfield Dam','Phelps Dam','Thomaston Dam','West Thompson Dam','Saville Dam') %Capacity Factor [no units] %Defined as the ratio of the actual amount of energy produced to the maximum power possible %Defined to be 52.2 % in DOE Study (Hadjerouia, pg 9) Cf = 0.522; %Enfield Potential Annual Capacity [MW] Enfield_PAC = YR_Enfield_PHE/(Cf*24*365); Enfield_PAC %Enfield Potential Annual Capacity [MW] Phelps_PAC = YR_Phelps_PHE/(Cf*24*365); Phelps_PAC %Enfield Potential Annual Capacity [MW] Thomaston_PAC = YR_Thomaston_PHE/(Cf*24*365); Thomaston_PAC %Enfield Potential Annual Capacity [MW] WestThompson_PAC = YR_WestThompson_PHE/(Cf*24*365); WestThompson_PAC %Enfield Potential Annual Capacity [MW] Saville_PAC = YR_Saville_PHE/(Cf*24*365); Saville_PAC %Total Potential Annual Capacity (all of the sites added up) [MW] Total_PAC = Enfield_PAC+Phelps_PAC+Thomaston_PAC+WestThompson_PAC+Saville_PAC %Convert the hydraulic head from [ft] to [m] H_ft=H*0.3048 %Convert the yearly mean flow from [cfs] to [cms] Q_yr_cms=Q_yr*0.02831685 13 Matlab Outputs YR_Enfield_PHE = 1.2832e+005 YR_Phelps_PHE = 2.0986e+004 YR_Thomaston_PHE = 1.5430e+004 YR_WestThompson_PHE = 1.3005e+004 YR_Saville_PHE = 6.4677e+003 Total_PHE = 1.8421e+005 Enfield_PAC = 28.0615 Phelps_PAC = 4.5894 Thomaston_PAC = 3.3744 WestThompson_PAC = 2.8440 Saville_PAC = 1.4144 Total_PAC = 40.2837 H_ft = 3.6576 14.0208 40.2336 19.8120 28.6512 Q_yr_cms = 14 479.6909 20.4657 5.2430 8.9735 3.0866 Matlab Plot Outputs Figure C1: Hydroelectric Power Energy vs Month for each of the 5 NPDs in CT as calculated by the Matlab Program 15