DATA SET 1
Invasive Trout
Disease (Chytrid
Fungus)
Contamination
& Water Quality
Prevalence/Survival
Prevalence/Survival
Prevalence/Survival
Initial Prevalence
/ Survival Rate
30 / 0
70 / 10
70 / 80
Plan 1 (Water
0/0
70 / 20
20 / 90
Immediate / 1
Year
100% 0 / 40 / 20 / 15
10 / 0
70 / 20
60 / 80
1 Year / 6 Years
90%
0 / 20 / 10 / 10
20 / 0
60 / 60
60 / 90
60%
0 / 30 / 30 / 30
20 / 0
40 / 70
50 / 90
Immediate / 2
Years
3 Years / 10
Years
70%
0/5/5/5
Chemical
Treatment)
Plan 2 (Fish
Removal and
Area Protection)
Plan 3 (Capture,
Treat, Release)
Plan 4 (Fungus,
Disease &
Contamination
Research)
Time until
Start/Complete
Birth
Rate
% Chance of
Relapse
50%
*Assume the starting frog population to be 2000 adult frogs.
Prevalence: Tells you how many of the total population will be affected by the factor. A population of 300 frogs
with a 40% prevalence would have 120 frogs affected.
Survival Rate: Indicates what percent of frogs affected by the factor will survive. If 120 frogs are affected with a
20% survival rate, that means that only 24 frogs would survive.
For example: With the Chytrid Fungus, there is a 10% Survival Rate and an 80% prevalence. That means 80% of the
total population of frogs will get sick, and only 10% of those that get sick will survive the sickness.
Time until Start/Complete: The first time period tells when the project could begin. The second time period tells
how long the project will continue to be funded and effective. If a plan does not start for 1 year, then the frog
population numbers will change based on the “Initial Prevalence / Survival Rate” for 1 year, then the second year,
the plan’s numbers would take effect.
Birth Rate: What percent of the population will appear as new adult frogs at the end of one year. For a birth rate
of 50% when you start with 2000 frogs, this means that at the end of the year, the number of new adult frogs will
be 2000x50% = +1000 new adult frogs at the end of the year.
% Chance of Relapse: This indicates the chance that, at the end of the duration, the factor would return to how it
was before the treatment. A 0% chance indicates that this is impossible, while a 100% chance would indicate an
immediate change back to how it was before it was implemented.
-The numbers are in order of: Trout / Disease / Contamination / Birth Rate
DISAPPEARING FROGS: What’s The Plan?
Plan 1: The water of the mountainous lakes and streams is treated with a chemical designed to kill off the trout in
the area. It has also been designed to affect the pH of the water to attempt to make the water more suitable for
the growth of yellow-legged frog eggs and most other organisms. The long term effects of the chemical on human
drinking water and the organisms in the area is not known for certain, but preliminary tests show no immediate
effects on humans. The chemicals are ready to use immediately. This solution requires only one week of work
from a government patrol, so it costs the government very little.
Plan 2: Government patrols will be sent into the area to trap and remove trout. Local fishermen may acquire a
license to assist. Strict safety regulations will be placed upon the farms surrounding the areas as well as any
civilians entering the area. Fishing will no longer be available in many areas without a permit. Changing the laws of
the area requires approval from the state. Neither funding nor approval will be available for a year. However,
once complete, the affects could continue to last far beyond the five years of funding.
Plan 3: Government patrols will be sent into the area once a week to capture yellow-legged frogs. All frogs will be
inspected and treated for any illnesses and will be released the following week. Frogs infected with the disease
will be maintained in a government facility until they recover. This plan has very little negative effects on the area,
but due to the labor necessary, it is more costly and can only be funded for two years.
Plan 4: Government research facilities will be investigating the chytridiomycosis fungus to attempt to develop an
easy to manage cure. Even if a definitive cure is not found, treatments will definitely be available to help sick frogs
recover faster. Research funding will also be used to alter pesticides being used on local farmlands to reduce their
flow into the local aquifers and their affects on the wildlife. Much focus will be spent on the pesticide Atrazine.
These results are costly and take a long time to get going, but their affects should be drastic.