PAIR2004
YouGov Report: Feasibility
Study of Research into the
Arab Spring
Student ID’s:
24067083
24657255
24759031
24635308
24758779
24711977
23397063
24042293
Word Count: 6,006 words.
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Contents
Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3
Rationale…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….4
Methodology …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7
Results/Findings…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………8
Policy Recommendations…………………………………………………………………………………………………..14
Appendix…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………16
Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………19
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Executive Summary
Rationale
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Empirical data on the Arab Spring is sparsely available and many conclusions being
drawn are assumptions based on anecdotal evidence.
One of the most significant considerations when conducting research is the reliability of
the data already gathered.
There are questions about whether existing data is comparable and whether any new
data which is collected can be comparable when studying such a large and diverse
selection of countries which are currently politically unstable.
A key barrier when considering the feasibility of conducting primary research in the
Middle East and Northern Africa is the complexity of ensuring research is ethically
conducted. A project on this scale will always have extended ethical issues to work
around, but given the vulnerability and fragility of countries involved in the Arab Spring
such as Syria where the conflict is as of yet unresolved, will make this project more
difficult than most.
Lack of expertise in collection, interpretation, and presentation of data continues to be a
problem in the Middle East and Northern Africa
Methodology
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The method of research undertaken in this study differs to the methodology of a
research paper, as the task given was a study of feasibility, rather than a primary
research project. The decision was made to review previous academic work on the Arab
Spring as well as collecting existing data to determine whether further collection of data
in the region would be required.
The practicalities and difficulties of carrying out research in the region were then
considered by examining previous research work in the Middle East & North Africa.
Results/Findings
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From a political perspective, censorship over research is still rife in many Arab Spring
countries. For a lot of countries, research authorities are still mainly government funded
such as in the Maghreb countries and Gulf nations.
An understanding of each country’s religious and ethnic make ups will be important
when choosing researchers and to ensure good quality data is gathered.
Reliable information is exceptionally hard to come by in certain regions, with simple
literacy levels of countries such as the UAE being measured irregularly and therefore too
outdated to be credible.
Thirdly, from a socio-demographic aspect, the customs and traditions present in many
communities in the Arab Middle East are exceptionally male dominated. Women are
often marginalised which will make achieving representative data difficult.
From an ethical perspective ensuring the security of research participants will be vital.
There are terrorist organisations operating within these regions which have a history of
attacking Western projects within the Middle East.
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Several countries which researchers will be operating in are governed by Shari'a law, the
strictness of which means researchers will have to ensure data is collected in an
inoffensive manner.
Another key area of ethical concern when conducting the research is ensuring that it is
collected in a consistent and fair manner. Technologies available e.g. internet access
may be limited so methods which are open to all will need to be used.
There will be a wide spread of languages across the 21 countries involved and so
ensuring data is accurately translated to so participants are fairly represented will be
important.
Policy Recommendations:
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Using local researchers whose own religions and ethnicities match those of the research
participants will be vital to overcome the broad ethnic and religious cleavages within
each of the countries targeted and may help reduce the initial tensions that are
produced by difficult interview questions and improve the quantity and quality of data
that is gathered.
Thus, we put forward the policy proposal that time is spent in the recruitment and
training of local researchers for your work.
It is difficult to offer a uniform recommendation to suggest how ethical difficulties may
be overcome but perhaps a pragmatic approach is best using the judgment of
researchers on the ground to tackle difficulties as they arise.
This report concludes that YouGov should go ahead with the process of gathering data
on the impact of the Arab Spring throughout all of the countries involved across the
Middle East and North Africa.
Rationale
The purpose of this report is to examine the feasibility of a study into the impact of the Arab
Spring in the Middle East and North Africa. In the interest of the aforementioned feasibility
we have decided to investigate whether there is a real need for YouGov’s proposed study.
With this aim in mind we have decided to review previous academic work on the Arab
Spring to analyse what data is currently being used, and also try and collate some secondary
demographic and ethnic data of own to see what data is actually available and whether
there is a need for further collection of data on the impact of the Arab Spring.
It is interesting to see that many academic articles are often only using anecdotal evidence
to support their arguments. For example Khondker’s (2011) article “The Role of New Media
in the Arab Spring”, uses almost no empirical data. Khondker (2011, p.676) describes the
self-immolation of a fruit seller in protest against the Tunisian government and then simply
states that new media helped to make this a national event which brought “virtual and real
revolutionaries...out in droves to protest”. Khondker makes no attempt to quantify how big
a role new media played in spreading news of the event or how many people came out to
protest as a result – there is no empirical evidence available on the event. Instead, Khondker
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has made an assumption about the cause and outcome of the protest. Khondker does make
attempts to use some empirical evidence in his article - for example noting that a Facebook
page called “We Are All Khaled Said”, created to draw attention to the beating and death of
an Egyptian blogger, rapidly gained 350,000 followers, showing how new media was being
used to disseminate information quickly amongst protesters. However, Khondker’s work
shows that empirical data is sparsely available and many conclusions being drawn are
assumptions based on anecdotal evidence.
Khondker is not the only academic who has been forced to rely on anecdotal evidence to
support his research. Anderson (2011, p.2) describes demonstrations in Tunisia as driven by
“neglected rural areas...[and]repressed labour movements”, whereas in Egypt they were
driven by “urbane and cosmopolitan young people”. In Libya, Anderson argues protests
were led by “ragtag bands of armed rebels” and caused by “tribal and regional cleavages”.
Whilst these statements may be true there is no empirical evidence to support them and no
demographic data to back up what Anderson describes – they are all anecdotal
assumptions. Parchami (2012, p.39) also makes assumptions about the Shia population in
Bahrain, describing them as “disenfranchised and disaffected” but makes no attempt to
support this. Again Parchami is relying on popular anecdotal opinion and not public opinion
survey data. It seems quite common for researchers to make anecdotal statements about
motivations for the protests, as seen in Hazran (2012, p.118) and Forstenlecher et al (2012,
p.54). That such a large range of academic research is using anecdotal evidence highlights
the need for wide-ranging and reliable empirical data in particular, public-opinion surveys to
reveal the motivations behind the Arab Spring uprisings.
Wilson & Dunn (2011, p.1,248-9) admit that previous analysis has been reliant on anecdotal
evidence because of the absence of empirical data and have attempted to address this with
their Tahir Data Project – a venture to collect data sets on social media use. Wilson & Dunn
examine the use of social media during the Arab Spring, specifically the use of Twitter in the
Egyptian Revolution. To gather the data for the Tahir Data Project 1,200 interviews were
carried out with protest participants who were selected by ‘snowballing’ (Wilson & Dunn,
2011, p.1,249-1,250). Although Wilson & Dunn’s work is restricted to Egyptian protesters, it
does reveal some of the difficulties researchers might face in trying to collect data in Arab
Spring regions. Finding protest participants was difficult for Wilson & Dunn – hence the
need to use the snowballing method to select participants. Unfortunately the use of this
method made it almost impossible to draw a representative sample – 75.5% of Wilson &
Dunn’s sample were male and over 77% had a degree. They had little control over the
participants selected because of the lack of a sampling frame and the reluctance of some
protesters to participate, for fear that their identities might be given away. Wilson & Dunn
(2011, p.1,250) argue that although the sample may not be representative of the Egyptian
population or the protesters, it is difficult for a researcher to know what the general
population demographics actually look like because of the “obfuscation” of Egyptian census
data (Wilson & Dunn, 2011, p.1,250). Wilson & Dunn’s work did not involve online
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surveying, instead interviews were face-to-face and whilst this may have allowed the
collection of data from individuals who did not have access to the internet, other problems
arose, most notably the security risk for protest participants – hence interviews had to be
carried out in semi-public areas like cafes and parks for protection (Wilson & Dunn p. 1,250).
They (2011, p.1,251) also compiled a data set using an archive of Tweets using certain
hashtags. However, the sole focus was on tweets in the English language such as #jan25
(the date most protests started), automatically excluding Arabic language tweets. This
highlights the importance of having local knowledge to collect empirical data to overcome
simple difficulties such as language barriers.
Gause (2011) and Parchami (2012) both admit that academics did not expect the Arab
uprisings; Parchami (2012, p.35) describing “regional experts...[as]...stunned”. If “the vast
majority of academic specialists on the Arab world were as surprised as everyone else”
(Gause, 2011, p.81) then this really suggests that there was a lack of understanding amongst
academics about the individuals on the ground in the Arab Spring countries, highlighting the
need for public opinion research.
Reading academic articles, it is clear that academics often have to go to great lengths to find
data on the Arab Spring to support their work. Forrtenslecher et al (2012, p.55, Note 12) use
a leaked US intelligence cable from the ‘Wikileaks’ site in their attempts to predict the
prospects for democratization in the UAE after the Arab Spring. Hazran (2012, p.119 Note
15) is using data to describe ethnic and religious divisions in Syria which is over 11 years old,
pre-dating the Arab Spring. It is unclear whether this data can be considered recent, and
therefore relevant enough to draw accurate assumptions from.
The conclusion we have drawn from this literature review is that current academic literature
on the Arab Spring is based on generalisations, assumptions and anecdotal evidence or data
which is out-of-date or of unknown origin and reliability. This clearly demonstrates the need
for a YouGov survey to provide accurate and up-to-date public opinion survey data which
academics can use, as currently no comprehensive data set exists.
After concluding our literature review we have decided that it would be useful to attempt to
gather some secondary data ourselves to examine what data is currently available to
researchers and then to determine whether this data is reliable and useable. Examining the
limitations of existing data might provide further validation that YouGov should go ahead
with its research project. The data we collected is divided into 3 tables – Table 1:
‘Population Data’, Table 2: ‘Ethnic & Religious Population Breakdown’ and Table 3: ‘Arab
Spring Events’ all of which are presented in our Appendix.
Table 1 demonstrates that there is a wide range of basic population data – population size,
density, urban population and GDP available for each of the 21 countries YouGov has
proposed surveying and it is also available from a reputable source – the UN Statistics
Division. However, this data does not greatly assist with work relating to the Arab Spring, at
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least not directly. We were also able to collect data on the religious and ethnic cleavages
within the states, with the exception of Palestine and Yemen. This data, however, is from
the CIA Factbook which although this might be considered a reputable source, the CIA
Factbook will not divulge how it’s data was collected or its sources which severely restricts
its usefulness as a source of reliable and credible data. This ethnic and religious data is
useful though to demonstrate that there are broad social and cultural cleavages within
these countries which will need to be considered when conducting research which we will
discuss further in the ‘Results/Findings’ section of our report. Finally Table 3 displays the
types of protest that have occurred in each of the countries and whether any instability is
ongoing, which is useful when considering the risks and practicalities on further research in
each state. The secondary data we have gathered has proved that there is basic
demographic information currently available from the UN, however data on the impact of
the Arab Spring is not existent – there is a need for YouGov to collect this data.
Methodology
Choosing the right method of research is crucial when writing a research paper. For
instance, Shuttleworth (2009) states that “Selecting the correct type from the different
research methods can be a little daunting, at first. There are so many factors to take into
account and evaluate.” The method of research undertaken in this study can be considered
unique compared to the general methodology used in a research paper, as the task set is a
study of feasibility, rather than the actual research project itself. Therefore, a different
approach needs to be undertaken. We have already made the decision in our Rationale to
review previous academic work on the Arab Spring, and then explore existing secondary
data to determine whether further collection of data in the region is required. Secondary
data analysis was chosen as it is a very flexible method that can be applied to a variety of
different media. It is an approach to the analysis of documents and texts, rather than
gathering data, in a sense it is not a research method as such (Bryman, 2008, p.1). We
concluded in our Rationale that there was a need for YouGov to undertake further research.
Our Rationale began with a literature review. This is what Jupp (2006) has defined as “the
further analysis of an existing dataset with the aim of addressing a research question
distinct from that for which the dataset was originally collected.” This involved a critical
study of a variety of articles written on the Arab spring, to which we would try and find a
justification for YouGov’s research. A critique was made of the approach that other
researchers had used and what findings had been gathered. We felt that a literature review
would give us a good indication on how previous research had been done on the topic of
the Arab spring and any mistakes made by previous researchers could be identified.
Previous studies identified to us that often, researchers have to go to great lengths to find
data on the Arab Spring to support their work. Khondker’s (2011) work shows that empirical
data is sparsely available and many conclusions being drawn are assumptions based on
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subjective evidence. Furthermore, research has also presented confirmation that a large
range of academic research is using subjective evidence and therefore indicates the need
for comprehensive and reliable empirical data.
As our Rationale has concluded that there is a need for YouGov to undertake research on
the impact of the Arab Spring we will move on in the ‘Results/Findings’ section of our report
to look at the whether it possible to attempt the research in the regions identified – North
Africa and the Middle East, and, if so, what problems might inhibit the gathering of data in
these countries. Primary research, in particular public-opinion surveys, will be required to
reveal the true inspirations that led to the Arab Spring uprisings. Therefore, we will look at
the success of past attempts to conduct primary research in the region.
Our next step will be to look more closely at the countries involved in the Arab spring and to
assess what potential problems could hinder the collection of data in these countries.
Factors such as communication will be considered. We will examine whether, in Gulf
Countries such as Iran, Bahrain, and UAE, it will be difficult for social science research to be
conducted by a Western research organisation. Religion will also be examined as a potential
obstacle in gathering sufficient data in the Middle East. Obviously data needs to be reliable
in order to make useful comparisons between the numerous countries proposed by YouGov,
so the report will also explore if it is possible to collect reliable data by examining academic
articles on the importance of data reliability, and more specifically the difficulties faced by
past research in the Middle East and North Africa when trying to collect reliable data.
The final component of analysis into the practicality of this research project will be to look
at the ethical complications of conducting such a large-scale research project. We will
examine whether a project of this scale will be able to work around the lengthy ethical
issues that will be involved considering the vulnerability and fragility of the countries
involved in this particular event. The Arab Spring protest may not have ended in many of
these countries so the obvious dangers this poses to researchers and participants will need
to be considered. We will also look at the ethical difficulties of conducting research which
may involve several religious groups or participants who may not be considered in normal
research such as ‘under-age’ participants.
Results/ Findings
We believe that our Rationale demonstrated that there is currently a lack of reliable and
useable data on the impact of the Arab Spring and therefore there is a need for YouGov to
carry out its proposed study. In this section we intend to examine the practicalities of
carrying out research in the proposed countries in the Middle East and North Africa, by
considering firstly, is it possible to attempt this research? And, if so, what problems might
inhibit the gathering of data in these countries?
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To begin with, from a political perspective, censorship over research is still rife in many of
these countries. For a lot of countries, research authorities are still mainly government
funded such as in the Maghreb1 countries and Gulf2 nations. However, this isn’t necessarily
the main problem. In countries such as Egypt, censorship over intellectual work remains
strong ‘obliging writers and intellectuals to publish in foreign countries’ (Arvanitis, 2010,
p.5). When combined with the presence of incumbent leaders who manipulate ‘decisionmaking processes in ways that perpetuate their control’ (Zahra, 2011, p.14) then the
problems of accessing these organisations are evident. Syria, because of the political
situation is a prime example of inability to access reliable data or carry out such extensive
research.
The reliability of data collected will be important - “unreliable data severely limits the
validity of the conclusions that can be drawn from them” (Lafaille and Wilderboer, 2006, p.
27) it is important that steps are made to prevent poor data collection. The reasons for
investigating the viability of gathering such data can be assembled into a number of groups.
From a researcher’s perspective, communication will be an issue imperative to achieving
reliable and credible data in a vast and complex region such as the Middle East and North
Africa. For instance, Vose (1983, p.39) states that if research hasn’t been conducted in these
places recently, the job is going to be harder. Therefore, communication with researchers
that have already conducted contemporary primary research in these areas and know local
cultures well will be helpful when trying to judge whether attitudes, cultures and beliefs
have been deviated by the Arab Spring from the ordinary discourses about the region and
its inhabitants.
Secondly, some Middle Eastern and Northern African societies are ingrained with religious
beliefs and hereditary class structures which tend to “impinge on creativity” (Arvanitis,
2010, p. 5). This poses a challenge to the researcher when trying to develop links with
researchers ‘on-the-ground’ in regions such as this because social science isn’t a necessarily
well regarded or desired occupation in some of the cultures present in these countries. This
is usually because the communities are steeped with centuries of religious and cultural
tradition thus, meaning that these societies are dominated by “wealth and patriarchal
values”. This can pose a challenge when trying to find researchers that understand these
areas and are well received by respondents.
Other problems researchers might face in the Gulf Countries such as Bahrain, Iran and UAE,
will be that social science research is often closed off to foreign research organisations and
tends to be undertaken local Arabic speakers. Therefore, this emphasises the need for
knowledge and expertise of the countries and cultures. Also research is restricted to
universities which are mainly funded by domestic governments. Despite this, there is a
possibility of future research taking place fairly reliably as foreign researchers are being
1
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Maghreb countries include Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia & Mauritania.
Gulf countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
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hired at a growing rate. For Egypt, Syria and Iraq, private academic institutions have grown
in number, but quality of education provision has severely diminished, making it hard to find
researchers who have the skills to collaborate with foreign research institutions. However,
the Maghreb countries such as Algeria and Tunisia have well-established centres of research
for social sciences and the talent required to be a researcher is abundant, there is also
usefully little social-stigma attached to a career in research. Thus, research in this area
shouldn’t be too challenging, despite being mainly government funded. Lastly, in the Middle
Eastern bloc of countries, most research centres are modern and funded fairly well, mainly
due to great amounts of research being conducted in relation to the regional conflicts and
political developments in Palestine. Therefore again, research shouldn’t be too challenging
from an academic perspective.
Constraints on scientific research in Arab countries are not limited to the absence or
weakness of institutional structures or their lack of staff. They also include the weakness of
relevant administrative arrangements and legal frameworks, and this can impact on the
efficiency and effectiveness of these institutions. (Rashid, 2009, p. 186). These weak
institutional structures can make gathering reliable data difficult. On top of these existing
problems, with the current delicate political state of the countries affected by the Arab
Spring, it seems questionable whether reliable data which is easily comparable can be
collected across such a widely range of countries which are particularly diverse in their
religions and cultures.
We have decided to examine research which has been conducted in the Middle East and
North Africa on other topics, such as healthcare, to examine the difficulties faced by other
researchers in collecting reliable data in the region. Research into the global HIV
epidemiology has found collecting data in the Islamic countries difficult: “Credible and
reliable data on HIV epidemiology and preventive measures are limited in Islamic countries.
Islam prohibits non-martial sex, homosexuality and intravenous drug use.” (Word Press,
2012) This, to some extent, explains why data shows relatively low HIV cases in these
regions in comparison with international data. The lack of freedom of expression in certain
countries could limit honest answers given in any interview or questionnaire taken
consequently reducing the validity of the data gathered.
Research into public health has also been difficult in the Middle East because there is a
significant lack of reliable data on population, lifestyles, behaviours, risk factors, and the
activities and performance of the health system, which is frustrating to public health
practitioners in many countries within the region (Pierre-Louis, Akala, Karam, 2004, p. 32).
Indeed, on many occasions the lack of accurate data has caused the credibility of public
health practitioners to be called into question. Lack of expertise in collection, interpretation,
and presentation of data continues to be a problem. In addition to data gaps,
incompatibility of systems and the deliberate withholding of data are obstacles to providing
relevant and timely information on populations in the Middle East.
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Research conducted on the management of broadcasting companies in the Middle East also
found the diversity of cultures within the Arab Spring region, made it difficult to reliably
compare nations. “We acknowledge in the report that there are challenges to conducting
audience research in the Middle East, and that there are trade-offs between cost and data
reliability when conducting research” (United States Government Accountability Office,
2006, p. 65). The report concluded that “[i]t is difficult to conduct probability sampling in
many locations in the Middle East. But it is not impossible” (United States Government
Accountability Office, 2006, p. 66)
Furthermore, a report by Cordesman (2012) ‘The Lack of Reliable Data on the Wars in Iraq,
Afghanistan, and Pakistan’ has proved that gathered data on wars in the region has been
unreliable and inaccurate. Death toll figures were highlighted as a particular uncertainty
and have been proven unreliable because of the difficulty of knowing how the prevalence of
kidnappings in the region affect claimed death tolls. Cordesman (2012, p. 19) claimed that
while open source material provides an unparalleled expanse of information, the credibility
of sources may vary. For example, the ability of WITS (Worldwide Incident Tracking System –
a database of global acts of terrorism and their human impact) to provide specific details on
incident victims, the perpetrators responsible, or the extent of the damage incurred, is
limited by access to reliable open source reporting. Moreover, incidents that involve few
casualties or occur in restricted or remote areas may appear in only a limited selection of
open sources. The limitations on research reliability would very much depend on the
method of research that was chosen. If anonymous online surveys were conducted, this
could help gather more honest comparisons. However, this then factors in the issue of
internet availability, which has a varied figure in each country examined. These difficulties
faced when using open source data to discover of the impact of war in the region,
demonstrates the problems YouGov may face gathering reliable local data.
When assessing the ‘potential to gather information’ as stated in the research brief we must
also look at demographic and economic data collected by other organisations to give us
intelligence as to the situation on the ground. For example we can clearly see in Table 1 that
due to the low number of internet users per 100 in many of the countries – Iraq 1.1, Bahrain
6.2, Yemen 10 (UN, 2009) - it would be difficult to attain nationally representative data via
internet surveys, a favourite method of YouGov. In addition to this we can also see from the
population density figures in Table 1 that surveys conducted through face-to-face interviews
are also going to be difficult to administer to a large sample size in many of these countries
due to their very low population density (people per km²): Libya 3.7, Mauritania 3.2, Oman
9.2 (UN, 2009). However, demographic data can also show us ways in which the potential to
gather information is made easier as well: in some states research would be easy to present
to a large number of people due to the states high urban population: Qatar 95%, Israel 91%
and Saudi Arabia 82.2% (UN, 2009). This would allow face to face surveys to be conducted
across a large sample size whilst minimising the cost of travelling, furthermore as the urban
population is so high, surveys in just a few cities and municipalities would be almost
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nationally representative on their own. In addition Arab spring activity has traditionally
taken place in key cities because of the ability to mobilise thousands of supporters near
instantaneously, so the data collected from these cities would come from those with
genuine first-hand experience of the revolutions.
In addition we must also look at to what extent the demography of each nation is going to
affect the potential results we will get. For example, the experience of the Arab Spring in
Mauritania, who’s population is 80% Mixed Black, is likely to be very different from states
like Syria, who’s population is 80% Assyrian Arabs (See Table 2). Therefore is it cost effective
and worthwhile to study both countries? This is of particular concern when we take into
account that unlike many other countries Mauritania’s experience of the Arab-Spring has
been somewhat muted with only minor protests and a death toll of 3 (Table 3) out of an
estimated international death toll of 120,000 (Table 3). Furthermore religious difference is
also likely to play a large part in the differences between data, for example Israel is 76.4%
Jewish and in contrast none of the other listed states have even a 1% Jewish population
(Table 2), therefore it stands to reason that Israeli experiences of the Arab Spring will be
very different from more traditional Arab states and this will make the Israeli data either
more or less valuable depending on the data.
From a social demographic aspect, the customs and traditions present in many communities
in the Arab Middle East are exceptionally male dominated. Even though the socioeconomic
situations of countries such as Saudi Arabia have significantly improved, women are still
marginalised which can lead to results citing poor representation because men are inclined
to not allow their wives to talk to researchers, as well as women being illiterate and unable
to respond in a coherent manner because of next to no rights of education.
Religion can also be a significant barrier to research in the Middle Eastern and Arab areas
because of the ethics it preaches. If concentrated parts of these countries are ravaged by
extremist tendencies, then religion can lead to the rejection of research methods limiting
“freedom of thought, creativity, priority of dialogue” (UNDP, 2011, p.54) and knowledge
consumption. This can severely inhibit the reliability of responses from these areas
regarding their opinion towards the Arab Spring, and will also hamper the ability to find
researchers whom these communities are comfortable speaking to. Thus, religion can
severely affect the reliability of results, as well as the diversity of response.
A key barrier to the collection of research in the Middle East and Northern Africa will be
ensuring that data collected is collected in a way which meets the ethical standards of
Western research. A project on this scale will always have extended ethical issues to work
around, but this is particularly relevant given the political and social vulnerability of the
countries involved in this particular event, especially in countries such as Syria where the
conflict is as of yet unresolved. The difficulty of maintain ethical standards of research will
be key when considering the feasibility of conducting primary research in this region. A
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central ethical issue will be the safety of research participants. To undertake any type of
research project blindly in the unstable political condition of this region would place both
researchers and participants in potential danger, as well as giving the results questionable
credibility because on the manner in which they were collected. In countries governed by
Shari'a law the approach of women to academic work, and sometimes even the interaction
with strangers is condoned or punished. This leads to a difficult position in terms of the
credibility of data as representative of all citizens. There have also been examples of
terrorist attacks on projects where Western projects within the Middle East have been
targeted for forcing their culture within the country. An example of this is January 2013
where two vaccination workers were killed by a landmine in North-West Pakistan for
providing polio vaccines and education for young girls. (BBC News 2013). Having said this, it
must be noted that 'religion and culture are not fostering antipathy to Western norms and
institutions, and that is actually more specifically anti-Americanism, which is for the most
part a response to perceptions and judgements regarding U.S. foreign policy' (Tessler 2003,
page 181).
Considerations must be made for a 'range of conditions under which salient variable
relationships may be explored' (Tessler & Nachtwey 1998, p.623). For example; in Bahrain,
Syria and the Sudan protests are ongoing. Therefore, the practicality of research in these
areas would have to work around the fact that 'they become extremely prone to large-scale
events that lie far from the statistical norm and were largely unpredictable to a given set of
observers' (Joffe 2011, p.508). There are also countries such a Saudi Arabia, Jordan and
Qatar where fundamental undemocratic regimes are still in place. In situations such as this
the repercussions of participation or criticisms of the regimes could not necessarily be
prevented. Anonymity would be essential, especially when the presence of 'political Islam
cannot be excluded from what will develop as the aftermath of the demonstrations.' (Joffe
2011, p.526). Furthermore, the freedom to even enter the country is definitely questionable
if regime leaders feel the research creates any 'criticisms of human rights violations,
discrimination against women and members of the Shia community, or repression of civil
protests in a neighbouring state, are not an undue interference in internal affairs' (Perthes
2011, p.76)
As well as participant safety it has been observed that large numbers of those directly
involved in the events of the Arab Spring were under-age children. Joffe (2011, page 512)
observes that 'the role of youth in the revolutionary processes stimulated by the new media
and in the mass demonstrations has been undeniable'. This presents a difficulty in the
collection of data, where the participants are considered vulnerable or not eligible to take
responsibility of the decision to participate themselves. To conduct research on minors
would, by world human right standards, require the permission of a legal guardian. The
complications of this in communities where parentage is unclear, orphans are common, and
legal papers are unusual is obvious.
13
Another key area of ethical concern, assuming that primary research is allowed to be
conducted, is the fair representation and access of information to participants. This always
presents a tricky balance and means 'only rarely are studies cross national and genuinely
comparative' ( Tessler & Nachtwey 1998, p.619). In order to avoid responses being
'misinterpreted as an attempt to take advantage of them' (Izraeli 1997, p.1556); all
involvement must be presented in a way easily understood by all. Not only would this
involve the interpretation into many different languages, it would also have to factor in the
hugely variance in literacy levels and available technology. In all countries involved, the
literacy levels of women are uniformly lower than men, and in some such as Somalia it is as
low as 25%. This massively restricts the ways in which the research can be fairly conducted,
as it obviously rules out written questionnaires and online surveys. Furthermore, it is
essential if it wished to be remotely representative or avoid alienation of a huge percentage
of the target research group. This could present a large issue for the project, which has been
proposed by an organisation that has self-proscribed to largely relying on online research
methods.
Policy Recommendations
This report concludes that YouGov should go ahead with the process of gathering data on
the impact of the Arab Spring throughout all of the countries involved across the Middle
East and North Africa. Our initial investigation into the existence and reliability of current
data clearly demonstrated that there is a definite lack of useable reliable data to base
academic work upon. Our literature review shows that current academic work is relying on
sparse and unreliable data. Our analysis of existing data for each country uncovered that
whilst there is a certain quantity of basic demographic information available – population,
population density & growth, GDP and the ethnic and urban-rural distribution of
populations, this data is widely varied in terms of its reliability. Much of the data is several
years old and certainly pre-dates the events of the Arab Spring. The way data has been
collected and recorded also varies widely making comparison difficult. A database which has
been collected by a reputable company in a uniform and consistent manner would greatly
aid comparative research on the region. Standards of research ‘on the ground’ are also
variable so it would be beneficial to begin a benchmark which future research and data
collection carried out in these regions could aspire to.
Ensuring that any research conducted meets ethical standards of research in Western
countries may prove difficult, for example research which may include minors –gathering
proof of age documentation may be difficult, however with a common sense approach – in
the case of minors simply asking parental permission may prove enough. Participant safety
will also be vital in countries where governments may be hostile to what they may perceive
as intrusive Western research. However with sensible precautions we do not feel that it is
possible to overcome these difficulties. It is difficult to offer a uniform recommendation to
14
suggest how ethical difficulties may be overcome but perhaps a pragmatic approach is best
using the judgment of researchers on the ground to tackle difficulties as they arise.
We would also like to put forward suggestions on the practicalities of carrying out research
in these regions. It is clear from the demographic data we have been able to collect that
there are broad ethnic and religious cleavages within each of the countries targeted. It may
prove difficult for Western researchers to enter these communities and expect to be able to
survey, interview and collect data as simply as they might do when conduct research within
their own communities. Arab Middle East cultures ‘are grounded in trust’ (Zahra, 2011, p.14)
and building strong relationships with local organizations and researchers will be vital in
aiding you with your research. There may even be risks to the safety of Western researchers
in some regions where certain ethnic or religious groups are particularly hostile towards
Western researchers whose intentions may be misinterpreted. Using local researchers
whose own religions and ethnicities match those of the research participants does not
negate these risks but could reduce initial tensions that are produced by difficult interview
questions and should, importantly, greatly aid the speed with which it is possible to gather
data and also the quantity of data that is gathered. Thus, we put forward the policy
proposal that time is spent in the recruitment and training of local researchers for your
work.
Whilst it is vital to use researchers with local experience, from a human resources
perspective the standard of local researchers will be an unknown, it is unlikely that there
will be many independent, domestic research organizations existing in many of these states
so recruitment of local researchers who already have a high standard of training in
quantitative research may prove difficult. It may prove pragmatic to invest time working
with local communities and organisations to improve the training of local researchers that
you employ. In the interest of data quality it could be best to begin with the collection of
simple demographic data to build the experience of local researchers and work through any
unforeseen problems that arise before attempting more ambitious work.
In conclusion, we are not suggesting that this research will be inexpensive or simple to carry
out. Inevitably researchers will encounter problems on the ground which we cannot
foresee. However, we believe that this report has conclusively proven that there is a need
for this research to be undertaken and the aims of the research are worthwhile. Conducting
research in the Middle East and North Africa has proven to be difficult for other research
projects – for example in the fields of healthcare (Pierre-Louis, Akala, Karam, 2004, p. 32)
and broadcasting (United States Government Accountability Office, 2006, p. 66). There will
be difficulties, such as overcoming local religious and ethnic divisions and ensuring that local
researchers are well-trained and equipped to consistently collect reliable data as well as
ensuring ethical standards are adhered to. However, we do not believe these difficulties are
insurmountable and YouGov’s work will hopefully drive a new standard for research in the
region and importantly encourage further research by other groups which will be to the
benefit of all.
15
Appendix
Table 1: Basic
Population
Data
16
Table 2: Ethnic
breakdown of
populations
17
Table 3: Arab Spring
Activity
18
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Data Sources for Results Tables 1-3:
Algeria:
Al Jazeera (2011) Algeria Repeals Emergency Law [online] Available at:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011223686267301.html [Accessed:
09/05/13
Krause, Flavia. (27 January 2011) Obama Poised to Step Up Criticism of Mubarak If
Crackdown Is Intensified. Bloomberg. [online] Available at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/egyptian-policeman-two-people-killed-incairo-protest-inspired-by-tunisia.html [Accessed 08/05/13]
Bahrain:
Press TV (26 February 2011) Bahrain Sacks Ministers Amid Protests [online] Available at:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/167162.html [Accessed 16/04/13]
CNN (30 January 2012) Bahrain Government Refutes Claims Over Protester Deaths [online]
Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/28/world/meast/bahrain-unrest/ [Accessed
05/05/2013]
Egypt:
Krause, Flavia. (27 January 2011) Obama Poised to Step Up Criticism of Mubarak If
Crackdown Is Intensified. Bloomberg. [online] Available at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/egyptian-policeman-two-people-killed-incairo-protest-inspired-by-tunisia.html [Accessed 08/05/13]
21
Reuters (February 2011) Egypt’s Military moves to Dissolve Parliament, Suspend Constitution
[online] Available at:
http://web.archive.org/web/20110215000033/http://www.haaretz.com/news/internationa
l/egypt-s-military-moves-to-dissolve-parliament-suspend-constitution-1.343140 [Accessed
01/05/2013]
Kirkpatrick, D. Stack, L. (13 March 2012) Prosecutors Order Mubarak and Son Held, The New
York Times [online] Available at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/world/middleeast/14egypt.html?_r=2& [Accessed
02/05/13]
CBS News (30 June 2012) Mohammed Morsi Sworn in as Egypt’s President [online] Available
at: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57464345/mohammed-morsi-sworn-in-asegypts-president/ [Accessed 09/05/2013]
Iraq:
New York Times (25th January 2013) Protesters Killed by Iraqi Forces [online] Available at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/world/middleeast/clashes-turn-deadly-after-iraqiforces-open-fire-on-protesters.html [Accessed: 08/05/13]
Israel:
Agence France-Presse (6 June 2011) Syria says 23 dead as Israel opens fire on Golan [online]
Available at: http://www.france24.com/en/20110606-syria-says-23-dead-israel-opens-firegolan# [Accessed 27/04/2013]
Jordan:
CNN (11 October 2011) Jordan’s King appoints new PM to lead new Government [online]
Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/10/10/world/meast/jordangovernment/index.html [Accessed 24/04/13]
Ahram (3 October 2011) King Abdullah Dissolves Parliament [online] Available at:
http://english.ahram.org.eg/Category/2/8/World/Region.aspx [Accessed 03/04/2013]
Kuwait:
AFP (13 December 2011) 30 Wounded in Kuwaiti Protests [online] Available at:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j3iEoEHineaoOiXnAXfxH2KFXTHg?
docId=CNG.fad80dffc69b5105a37f43fbbaedadfd.261l [Accessed: 04/05/13]
Lebanon:
22
New Statesman (06 January 2012) Is Lebanon Immune to the Arab Spring? [online] Available
at: http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/01/syria-lebanon-lebanese
[Accessed 09/05/2013]
Libya:
New Europe (31 October 2011) NATO Announces Withdrawal of All Troops from Libya
[online] Available at: http://www.neurope.eu/article/nato-announces-withdrawal-alltroops-libya [Accessed: 09/05/2013]
Reuters (12 November 2011) Fighters Clash Again Near Tripoli, Several Dead [online]
Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/us-libya-clashesidUSTRE7AB0HU20111112 [Accessed 08/05/2013]
Libya Herald (7 January 2011) Casualty Figures Exaggerated, says Ministry [online] Available
at: http://www.libyaherald.com/2013/01/07/casualty-figures-exaggerated-says-ministry/
[Accessed 08/05/2013]
Mauritania:
Wedaddy, N (23 January 2011) Mauritania’s Bouazizi Died Today [online] Available at:
http://dekhnstan.wordpress.com/2011/01/23/mauritanias-bouazizi-died-today/ [Accessed:
05/05/13]
Morocco:
Middle East Online (22 February 2011) Moroccan King to make Reforms with Constitutional
Body [online] Available at: http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=44526
[Accessed: 03/05/2013]
Oman:
Al Jazeera (5 March 2011) Oman’s Ruler Dismisses Ministers [online] Available at:
http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2011/03/20113565533194678.html
[Accessed: 08/05/2013]
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Available at:
http://web.archive.org/web/20110228055345/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middleeast-12590588 [Accessed: 06/05/2013]
Palestine:
New York Times (13 April 2013) Palestinian Prime Minister Resigns Adding Uncertainty to
Government [online] Available at:
23
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/world/middleeast/salam-fayyad-palestinian-primeminister-resigns.html?src=recg&_r=0 [Accessed: 13/04/13]
Qatar:
None.
Saudi Arabia:
Donna, A (21 March 2011) Saudi Women Inspired by Fall of Mubarak to step-up Equality
Demand. Bloomberg. [online] Available at: http://www.webcitation.org/5xeO2w5aG
[Accessed: 09/05/13]
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Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12260465 [Accessed:
24/04/13]
The Guardian (28 November 2011) Deadly Shootings in Saudi Arabia, but Arab Media look
the other way [online] Available at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/28/deadly-shootings-saudi-arabiaarab-media [Accessed on: 03/05/2013]
Sudan:
McDoom, O. (31 January 2011) Sudanese Student Dies after Protests-Activists. Reuters.
[online] Available at: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/uk-sudan-protestsidUKTRE70U21620110131 [Accessed: 08/05/2013]
Syria:
BBC News (23 April 2011) Syria Protests: Security Forces shoot at Mourners [online]
Available at:
http://web.archive.org/web/20110425055209/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middleeast-13175677 [Accessed: 09/05/2013]
Al Jazeera (29 March 2011) Syrian Cabinet Resigns Amid Unrest [online] Available at:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/03/201132975114399138.html
[Accessed on: 07/05/13]
Al Jazeera (28 April 2011) Syrian Amid Units Clash Amid ‘crackdown’ [online] Available at:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011428182333234775.html
[Accessed: 09/05/2013]
Al Jazeera (28 February 2013) Syrian Death-toll Likely to Reach 70,000 says UN Chief [online]
Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/us-syria-crisis-unidUSBRE91B19C20130212 [Accessed 13/04/2013]
24
Tunisia:
BBC News (17 January 2011) Tunisia Forms National Unity Government Amid Unrest [online]
Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12209621 [Accessed: 29/04/2013]
Al Jazeera (9 March 2011) Tunisia Dissolves Ben-Ali Party [online] Available at:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2011/03/20113985941974579.html [Accessed:
29/04/2013]
Reuters (8 June 2011) Tunisia Election Delayed until 23 October [online] Available at:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-tunisia-election-idUSTRE7571R020110608
[Accessed: 29/04/2013]
Guardian (5 May 2012) Report: 338 Killed During Tunisia Revolution [online] Available at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/10228846 [Accessed: 09/05/2013]
UAE:
None.
Yemen:
Kasinof, L. (21 January 2012) Yemen Legislators Approve Immunity for President. New York
Times. [online] Available at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/world/middleeast/yemens-parliament-approvesimmunity-for-president-saleh.html [Accessed 09/05/2013]
Al-Haj, A. (19 March 2012) Yemen says more than 2,000 killed in Uprising. The Washington
Post. [Online] Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/yemensays-more-than-2000-killed-in-uprising/2012/03/18/gIQAGOtcLS_story.html [Accessed:
09/05/2013]
25
26