EVALUATING THE STABILITY OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY: CASE
OFCHINA
Faheemullah Shaikh,
Centre for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy & Managment, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing, China.
Mehran University Centre for Energy & Development, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology
(MUET), Jamshoro, Pakistan.
Phone +86 13021934532, E-mail: engrfaheemshaikh@gmail.com.
Overview
Energy security constitutes the vital role in maintaining the economic development and human life. The term
energy security is considered polysemous, and distinguished by its purpose, location and study period. Energy
security generally includes two main aspects 1) stability of supply 2) security of energy use. Stability of energy
supply is to guarantee the supply at a stable level to meet the demand and security of energy use includes
ensuring that its use will not result in any environmental damage.
In this paper, China has been chosen as a case to assess the stability of its natural gas supplies. China’s overall
energy security concern has been to ensure the stable supply of foreign oil, specifically challenged because of
the geopolitical and territorial disputes and pirates attack, constituting the term Malacca dilemma in China’s
energy security research. However, recently, the natural gas has attracted Chinese policy makers to deal with
GHG emissions and modify the existing high carbon energy consumption structure. China became a net
importer of natural gas in 2007. China’s natural gas import dependency was just 5% in 2007 and jumped to 32%
in 2013, becoming the fourth largest consumer of natural gas in the world. China’s natural gas import share is
comprised of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (15%) and pipeline natural gas (PNG) (17%). According to the latest
forecasts by various studies that China’s natural gas import dependency will reach 50% by 2020 and 75% by
2030. Therefore, keeping in view the growing import dependence of natural gas in China’s primary energy mix,
it is very essential to examine the stability of its supply.
The remainder of the paper is organized as: Section 2 constructs and simulates the ecological network model of
the China’s natural gas supply. Section 3 discusses the results. Finally section 4 concludes the study and put
forward suggestions for improving the natural gas supply security of China.
Methodology
Ecological Network Analysis
Result
First, the pyramid structure of the contributions of the different compartments to overall natural gas supply
security was determined.
Second, the diversity of China’s natural gas security was estimated and observed that increase in the number of
natural gas import sources/countries and the PNG, had caused overall increase in the stability of natural gas
supplies.
Third, the scenario analysis indicates that the stability of China’s natural gas supply is substantially decreased
with a maximum reliance on any one of the sources of supply.
Conclusion
This study implemented the ENA modelling approach to quantify the contribution of different
compartments/parts of the China’s natural gas supply system. Further, we estimated the diversity and the
stability of China’s natural gas supplies. We conclude that China’s natural gas supplies have remained stable
during the period 2007-2013. However, keeping in view the growing demand, it is strongly suggested to
continue the policy of source diversification to maintain the overall stability of natural gas supply.
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Selected references
Leung, G. C. (2011). China's energy security: Perception and reality. Energy Policy, 39(3), 1330-1337.
Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., & Fath, B. D. (2010). Ecological network analysis of an urban water metabolic system:
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Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., Fath, B. D., & Li, S. (2010). Ecological network analysis of an urban energy metabolic
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Lu, W., Su, M., Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., Chen, B., & Liu, G. (2014). Assessment of energy security in China based
on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply. Energy Policy, 74, 406-413.
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