WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
Supporting the AMDAR Program
Business Case for Funders 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This document presents and describes the case for supporting the AMDAR program
of the World Meteorological Organization, a specialized agency of the United
Nations dedicated to weather, water and climate. The AMDAR (Aircraft
Meteorological DAta Relay) program, a partnership between the private sector,
government entities and the WMO, delivers a range of economic, social and
environmental benefits to stakeholders across the following sectors:

Environmental protection

Agriculture

Health

Disaster risk reduction

Aviation
This document is intended for use by organizations that may be interested in
financially supporting the program.
2
I.
AMDAR OVERVIEW
BACKGROUND
The Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay (AMDAR), program overseen by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), fosters partnerships between airline companies, weather
monitoring and forecasting organizations and other relevant stakeholders. The program uses
commercial aircraft’s existing sensors, avionics, and global telecommunications systems to
gather, analyze and disseminate data that improves the frequency of weather reporting and
the accuracy of weather forecasting.1
The AMDAR system uses sensors on commercial aircraft, such as Korean Air or South African
Airways passenger planes, to collect and distribute key meteorological data (wind speed and
direction, temperature, etc.) during flight, for improved weather reporting and forecasting
worldwide.
Automated weather observations by aircraft were first used in 1978, with the first operational
AMDAR program beginning in 1986 with just 5 aircraft. Growth has been rapid, as seen in Figure
1 below. To date, the program has grown to include 39 participating airlines and over 3800
commercial aircraft worldwide. Participating airlines include American Airlines, Air Vanuatu,
Korean Air, Lufthansa, Shandong Airlines, British Airways, KLM, Cathay Pacific, South African
Airways, and Qantas Airways.2
Figure 1 – Global aircraft observations – average of daily report totals3
The growing number of airline partners and AMDAR-equipped aircraft within existing airline
fleets are a testament to the value of the program for airlines and the airline industry overall.
Compared with other weather monitoring and reporting systems, AMDAR is also a highly cost
effective solution, in most cases requiring only the deployment of an avionics software
application. For example, an average AMDAR program, utilizing 30 aircraft, is estimated to be
no more than 20% of the cost of a comparable radiosonde program (a system which utilizes
weather balloons and telemetry instruments to collect atmospheric data).4 Indeed, a recent
1
WIGOS – The Benefits of AMDAR data to Meteorology and Aviation Report 2014 (“WIGOS Benefits Report”)
2
AMDAR program website: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR//AMDAR_Airlines.html
3 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/data/statistics/aircraft_obs_cmc_mthly_ave_daily_reports_by_type.jpg
4 This assumes the AMDAR program is equipped with humidity sensors such as WVSS-II. WIGOS Benefits Report
3
Met Office cost-benefit analysis of different observing systems 5 found AMDAR to give the
highest impact per cost on a global numerical weather prediction model.
AMDAR PROGRAM OPERATION
AMDAR utilizes aircraft’s onboard instruments and avionics systems to provide accurate
meteorological measurements, such as air temperature and winds. This data is transmitted to
the ground usually by VHF radio or satellite, and from ground stations to meteorological
processing centers via the airline’s data processing center. 6 Information on the following
parameters is collected at all phases of flight7 as standard:
– Altitude (pressure derived)
– Temperature
– Wind speed
– Wind direction
Additional parameters which can be optionally collected by participating airlines include:
– Humidity
– Turbulence
These additional parameters require further software application functionality (and in the case
of humidity, sensor hardware) – but can improve weather forecasting even further. AMDAR
measurements are compiled into a standard message format and transmitted to the partner
national weather center, or National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), in as
near to real-time as possible.
Figure 2 – Schematic of the basic AMDAR system*
* Reflects major service providers contracted by participating airlines. National service providers, such as Brazil and
China, also participate in the program.
More detailed information on the AMDAR observing system is available from the WMO
AMDAR website (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR/About.html).
5
Eyre, J. and R. Reid, 2014: Cost-benefit studies of observing systems. Met Office, UK
6
Data transmitted from aircraft using ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System). AMDAR
Coverage and Recruitment Study 2013
7 EUMETNET AMDAR presentation at Royal Meteorological Society 2013
4
II.
BENEFITS OF AMDAR AND IMPROVED FORECASTING
How AMDAR Improves Forecasting
AMDAR observations are used in the production, verification and assessment of predictive
weather models and forecast products and diagnostics, the results of which contribute to an
improvement in model performance and predictive skill – and also to helping forecasts
continuously improve. AMDAR data has been proven effective in improving the quality and
accuracy of weather reports – reducing forecast errors by up to 20%.
AMDAR data has become the second 8 , 9 or third 10 most important data set globally for
improving 24 hour forecasts, depending on the study – and the data source with the most
consistent impact. Further, AMDAR is unique as the only source of in situ upper air data taken
throughout the day (rather than at set times) providing both temperature and wind
observations11. AMDAR also plays an important role in verifying forecasts and the models used
to create them, in particular when the output of a model has to be corrected on the basis of
recent AMDAR information.
Aviation and public weather forecasters also make use of AMDAR data for both the
verification and updating of forecasts in the shorter-term and in the periods between updates
of forecasts based on predictive models (usually made every 6 or 12 hours). This advantage
and resulting enhancement to forecast skill is derived from the high temporal availability of
AMDAR data (often as frequent as one or more vertical profiles per hour).12 The data continues
to have a positive impact on forecasts up to 48 hours out.
The accuracy, high reporting volume and frequency and timeliness of AMDAR data make it
an important factor in improved weather monitoring and prediction, which has a wide range
of benefits and beneficiaries – both including and beyond the aviation industry.
Improvements in forecasts, enabled by AMDAR data, deliver a wide range of economic, social
and environmental benefits for participating organizations, countries, and regions. At the
national level, AMDAR-enabled reporting allows public, private and civil society organizations
to plan and respond more reliably to impacts of weather-related events. In rural Africa alone,
it is estimated that over 700 million poor people are negatively impacted by the lack of reliable
weather information. 13 Thus, AMDAR-enabled weather reporting presents significant
opportunities and benefits to:





The Environment
Agriculture
Health
Disaster Risk Reduction
Aviation
8
Radnoti, G. et al, 2010: ECMWF study on the impact of future developments of the space-based observing system
on Numerical Weather Prediction
9 Taking satellite observations as a single data set
10
Petersen, R. A., 2014: On the current impact and future benefits of AMDAR observations in operational forecasts
11
Ibid.
12
WIGOS Benefits Report
13
Weather Info for All Concept Paper, WMO, 2008
5
1. Benefits to the Environment
AMDAR data, used to improve weather reporting and forecasting, can support airlines in
reducing their annual fuel burn, which in turn results in reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
South African Airways estimates that for every 1000kg of fuel consumed by aircraft, 3100kg of
CO2 is emitted. Over a one-year period, South African Airways was able to reduce its fuel
consumption using pre- and in-flight route optimization informed by AMDAR data, by 600,000
kg. In turn, this reduced the airline’s CO2 emissions by approx. 2 million kg, or 2000 tons of
carbon dioxide that year.14
Other AMDAR-enabled efficiencies which have environmental benefits include the use of
continuous descent approach, described later, which reduces both noise and CO 2 emissions;
and better targeted use of deicing fluid based on improved forecasting, reducing the
environmental impact of operating a plane in cold weather.
Additionally, AMDAR data contributes to regional and global efforts to measure and monitor
environmental and climatological patterns and trends. Particularly in regions where upper air
data is currently scarce but aviation traffic is present, the development of AMDAR will be vital
to studying and better understanding the mechanisms for and impacts of climate change at
both the regional and global levels.
Furthermore, AMDAR observations are taken at altitudes of 200 – 400 hPa (7 - 12 kms) when
aircraft are at cruising elevations; and it is at this level where observations are highly relevant
for the study of the variability and change in water vapour that are key to understanding
climate change15. Should AMDAR be expanded globally, it would assist greatly in assembling
a global climatology of atmospheric humidity.
2. Benefits to Agriculture
Better forecasting enables more efficient use of agricultural inputs, and can ensure lower crop
losses due to extreme weather or natural disasters. Increased accuracy in forecasting also
enables the agricultural sector to optimize the post-harvest supply chain.
Better temperature and wind information, which influence the migration of locusts, can be
used to support (early warning for) locust migration. Locust, in particular the Desert Locust,
“poses the greatest threat of all locusts to humans because hopper bands and adults swarms
can rapidly arise and migrate, potentially threatening food security in some 60 countries in
Africa, the Middle East and Asia”.16 Since very few wind data providing systems are available
in Africa, the expansion of AMDAR can be beneficial in seasonal locust migration forecasting.
With AMDAR data less available over parts of the world where agriculture plays a larger role in
national economies, more direct links between AMDAR data and agricultural benefits are
difficult to draw. What is clear, however, is the benefit AMDAR has to forecasts – and the
benefits that improved forecasts have to agriculture.
The WMO reports that use of weather information can increase agricultural productivity by
20%. In India, the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
provides improved rainfall data to an insurance company that offers weather insurance to
over 50,000 farmers.17
14
South African Airways AMDAR Business Case
AMDAR and Climate, R. Boers and J.P van der Meulen, KNMI, Netherlands, May 2011
16 Yale F&ES Bulletin 103
17 “Better rainfall data means Indian farmers have better insurance against crop failure,” Research Program on
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2013
15
6
3. Benefits to Health
Using improved weather information, governments, communities and health NGOs can better
prevent the spread of climate-sensitive diseases such as cholera, dengue and meningitis.
Rainfall predictions are currently used in East Africa to predict outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (a
mosquito-borne virus) – scientists use weather data to create monthly risk maps of the disease.
18
Again, direct benefit flow from AMDAR to health benefits are difficult to draw given the current
coverage of the program. However, in the US, moisture data provided by AMDAR have shown
short-range forecast impacts larger than from any other moisture observations. This has
enhanced prediction of both the timing and location of precipitation events 19.
Annually, approximately 1 million lives are claimed by weather- and climate-sensitive diseases
– most of these are children under the age of 5 in developing countries. It is estimated that
23,000 lives could be saved each year through improvements to health resulting from more
accurate weather monitoring and forecasting.20
4. Benefits to Disaster Risk Reduction
Accurate weather predictions can improve prediction of the scale, location, and severity of
extreme weather events, and trigger preventive responses to severe weather and natural
disasters. According to the World Bank, between 1970 and 2010, natural hazards were
responsible for the deaths of 3.3 million people. 21 In 2011 alone, approximately 206 million
people were affected by natural disasters, with an economic impact of USD$366 billion.22
Using weather data can reduce human and economic losses from floods, droughts, storms,
and wildfires. In 2008 the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
(IFRC) used seasonal precipitation forecasts to prepare in advance for floods in West and
Central Africa. 23 IFRC was able to meet victims’ needs within 24-48 hours of flooding,
compared to 40 days the year prior, and the cost of flood response per beneficiary was also
33% lower than in 2006/2007.
A recent study has shown that AMDAR data had a greater impact than any other data source
on improving forecasts of the location and timing of landfall of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 –
double the impact of balloon-carried weather probes (rawinsondes).24
5. Benefits to Aviation and the Airline Industry
Improved forecasting services and meteorological products, resulting from the provision of
AMDAR data and its inclusion in predictive meteorological models, can have significant
positive impact on aviation operations. Examples of weather conditions where improved
weather information, owing to AMDAR data, can play a significant role for airlines, airports and
air traffic control are25:
18
“Rift Valley Fever,” WHO website, 2014
19
WMO analysis from upcoming paper
20
Weather Info for All Concept Paper, WMO, 2008
21
Weather and Climate Resilience Report, World Bank 2013
22
UNISDRE Report 2011
23
Early Warning, Early Action - Evaluation of IFRC West and Central Africa Zone Preparedness and Response. IFRC,
2008
24 WMO analysis, based on Hoover, Brett T.; Velden, C. S. and Langland, R. H. to NOAA Annual Hurricane Workshop.
Miami, FL. https://ams.confex.com/ams/31hurr/webprogram/manuscript/paper243960/7A.3_abstract.pdf
25 WIGOS Benefits Report
7
-
-
Thunderstorm genesis, location and severity
Additional and improved wind information near airports
Detection of zero-degree level (freezing rain)
Fog formation, location and duration
Turbulence location and intensity
Conditions leading to aircraft icing
By providing more frequent and accurate insight into the above conditions, AMDAR data
allows stakeholders in the aviation industry to better prepare for weather patterns and
changes in order to improve their operations – and ultimately reduce costs.
More specifically, AMDAR-enabled reporting and forecasting have a wide range of benefits
for both individual airlines as well as the airline industry overall. These include:
-
More efficient flight operations: optimized flight plans to avoid turbulent weather and
unplanned diversions for reduced fuel consumption, minimized wear and tear on
aircraft thereby increasing their useful life and reducing maintenance costs
-
Reduced carbon footprint: lower aircraft fuel burn reduces CO2 emissions, which
reduces both emissions costs and environmental damage, as well as improving
corporate reputation
-
Increased safety and passenger comfort: improved route planning allows aircraft to
avoid inclement weather which threaten passenger and crew safety, reduces
unplanned diversions resulting in fewer delays and cancellations, and reduces airport
and customer service costs thereby increasing customer satisfaction and airline
patronage
“At about 1200c UTC on 6 February 1998 the Miami Centre Weather Service Unit (CWSU)
was notified that an airliner had encountered sustained, strong headwinds over the
Atlantic that were not taken into account when the plane was fuelled in Italy. The pilot
was concerned that they might suffer fuel exhaustion en route. He needed an altitude
that offered substantially smaller headwinds because he was approaching critical fuel.
Fortunately recent information collected by AMDAR reporting aircraft showed a flight
track over the Bahamas less than one hour old with headwinds 40 knots (21 m s-1) less
than the winds that the airliner was reporting. Controllers immediately assigned the
airliner to that altitude and flight path and the aircraft was able to complete the flight
without incident.”
The availability of AMDAR data is conservatively estimated to have saved this airline
over $10,000 in this one case alone and potentially averted a significant incident. Fuel
savings from avoiding an extra descent and ascent for diversion is typically in the range
of $3,000. Extra cost of ground support at the diversion point, crew duty limits, passenger
accommodations, extra airline operations support, and other costs contribute the
remaining.
Ref. Bulletin AMS, 84, pp 203-216
8
III. THE FUTURE OF AMDAR
The AMDAR program has experienced significant growth in recent years. As of October 2014,
nearly 700,000 AMDAR aircraft observations were reported globally, representing a nearly 75%
increase over the 2013 observation levels.
However, AMDAR participation is currently concentrated in Europe, North America, East Asia
and Australasia, resulting in frequent and high quality observations benefitting a range of
players in these well-developed markets.
Large areas where aircraft-based observations are still relatively infrequent have significant
potential for improved weather forecasting. Figure 3 shows vertical profile coverage (data
collected during ascent and descent) at 528 airports worldwide, while Figure 4 shows a day’s
worth of observations, highlighting differences in data concentration across regions.26
Figure 3 – Vertical Profile data coverage, January 26, 2014




Yellow = less
than 1 profile
per day
Green = 1-7
profiles per day
Blue
=
8-24
profiles per day
Purple = greater
than 24 profiles
per day
Figure 4 – Two-dimensional global aircraft-based observations coverage, March 9, 2015
26
WMO AMDAR data statistics - http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/data/ABO_Data_Statistics.html
9
As illustrated in the figures above, significant scope exists to increase aircraft-based
meteorological observations throughout Latin America, Africa, and large areas of Central and
South Asia where data is relatively sparse.
The AMDAR program has the potential to add significant value to weather reporting in these
regions for a relatively small cost with far-reaching benefits for private sector, government and
civil society actors, as detailed in Section II of this report.
AMDAR Expansion
AMDAR expansion into the data-sparse regions (Latin America, Africa, and large areas of
Central and South Asia), where urbanization growth is expected in the coming decade, will
yield greater incremental benefits for developing and emerging markets, which in many cases
are more vulnerable to weather-related phenomena than developed economies. Thus, over
the coming years, WMO looks to expand the AMDAR program particularly into these regions.
WMO has adopted a regional approach for developing and implementing the AMDAR
program, aiming at fulfill each region’s specific requirements and is now looking for
governments and organizations who share the program’s aims to contribute to and benefit
from this expansion.
In many cases, participation by certain stakeholders can be impeded by the financial
requirements of doing so – whether installation costs or ongoing data communication costs for
airlines, or the costs NMHSs must bear to set up an AMDAR program, build human capacity,
and use AMDAR data on an ongoing basis in order to improve forecasting. Further, continuing
to expand the AMDAR program requires resources in order to raise awareness of the program
and its benefits among a broad set of stakeholders.
Organizations who recognize the benefits of the AMDAR program can support stakeholders in
bearing these costs – whether in expectation of a financial return (e.g. with an instrument with
repayments based on the lower costs of operations AMDAR enables) or for the social good
and in support of the organization’s mission and vision.
Organizations already working directly in weather and climate issues, or in supporting regions
with issues that could see direct benefit from AMDAR (agriculture, health, disaster relief,
broader environmental issues), can also consider supporting stakeholders with the financial
costs of their participation in the AMDAR program.
10
IV. SUPPORTING THE AMDAR PROGRAM
While AMDAR operation requires participation from airline companies and National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in particular, AMDAR expansion into datasparse regions will require support from and collaboration among a number of additional
stakeholder groups – some of whom may incur additional costs to participate. There are
multiple ways that supporters of the AMDAR program can contribute to and benefit from its
expansion.
Airline Companies that transmit collected data flights to partner NMHS benefit from
improved weather forecasts and boost their public perception through participation –
having direct and indirectly measurable effects on their bottom line. Their participation
may require a nominal investment in the program to enable participation, and for airlines
in areas not covered by VHF, potentially increased costs to transmit AMDAR data via
satellite.
NMHSs process the data to improve their weather forecasting, benefit from improved
quality and frequency of meteorological data, and reduced forecast errors. Participating
may require new capabilities and personnel training, and potentially investment in new
equipment and communication links.
Airports and Air Traffic Control, which could use AMDAR-based products to manage airline
traffic and altitude, as well as runway selection, would see improved coordination of air
traffic resulting in an increase of overall capacity and a reduction in congestion. This
would lead to fewer delays, reduced airport and fuel costs, and increased passenger
safety. As with NMHSs, participating may require new capabilities and personnel training,
and potentially investment in new equipment and communications links.
Aviation authorities, who can oversee, promote or potentially mandate participation in
the AMDAR program, would see the benefits to aviation as well as broader socioeconomic benefits as outlined above.
External supporters will play an essential catalyzing role in achieving the vision of expansion in
the data-sparse regions, which include Africa, Asia and Latin America. The WMO is therefore
looking to partner with such organizations. Specific support could include:
1. Supporting NMHSs’ Participation
Organizations whose operations or constituents may be affected by weather or
climate-related events or patterns can directly support NMHSs in their participation in
the program – whether financially or with in-kind assistance. This might enable such
supporting organizations access to AMDAR-enabled weather reports in preferential
ways, and/or to new or optimized products from NMHSs that better meet their needs.
Organizations in sectors such as agriculture, aviation, health, utilities, disaster risk
reduction, and environmental protection would find particular benefit in supporting
NMHSs’ participation in the AMDAR program.
Specific areas where NMHSs would benefit from support include:



The setup of regional data processing centers and/or developing requisite
communications infrastructure
Talent/skills development for the operation of the AMDAR program
Other costs in operating, and publicizing the role of the NMHS in, the local /
regional AMDAR program
11
2. Supporting Participation of Other Stakeholders
AMDAR expansion into developing and emerging markets may require funding support
to fill resource gaps or help the stakeholders listed above in financing their
participation. Funds will be needed for awareness raising activities, technical
development, and collaboration among key stakeholders.
Partners can provide funds for:





Establishment and ongoing operational costs associated with the program
Communications infrastructure installation and operation
Data communications charges, particularly satellite communications fees that
some airlines may not initially be able to cover – perhaps through an innovative
financing instrument (e.g. with a return based on savings on fuel or
maintenance the airline may realize as a result of participation)
Incentives for airframe and avionics manufacturers to ensure AMDAR capability
is standardized or easily retrofit to aircraft
Marketing and advertising activities, to increase awareness of the AMDAR
program among key stakeholder groups
3. Promoting AMDAR Awareness
The WMO seeks to increase awareness of the AMDAR program and its benefits – not
only to the meteorological and aviation communities, but also to public, private and
civil society actors in target countries, to drive increased participation and program
expansion. To this end, the WMO seeks partners willing to support and participate in
awareness-generating initiatives for the AMDAR program, such as events and
conferences, online marketing efforts, and other promotional activities among
partners’ clients or constituent groups.
Partners can help to promote the program by:


Facilitating stakeholder dialogues through hosting and sponsorship of
introductions, meetings and other related events
Supporting financially (and/or through in-kind assistance) the development
and distribution of AMDAR-related communications materials (across various
media channels)
Other mechanisms for support may well be available and specific to local NMHSs, airlines and
other stakeholders. Regional WMO offices and local NMHSs can advise on the specific needs
and context in their areas.
CONTACT INFORMATION
To find out more about the AMDAR program in your region and how you can support its
expansion, contact your regional WMO office or local NMHS (details included below).
12