As you open your bedroom door, fight off a few yawns as you make your way to the
kitchen, and pour a cup of hazelnut coffee—whoever copyrighted that timed coffee machine idea
has to be making millions—you think about a couple of things: “It’s only Tuesday? I need some
more coffee,” and “Do I need an umbrella?” So, sluggishly you reach over the kitchen counter
for the remote, which is laying contently on the love seat you managed to purchase at a 40%
discount, and you browse through television channels until finally catching the Local on the 8’s.
Everyone’s morning routine varies in several ways, but most people consistently ask themselves
the same question as they take the first bite of their morning cereal; “What’s the weather going to
be like today?” Weather is a phenomenon which affects everyone’s everyday lives, whether it’s
deciding which shoes to wear or determining which inventory pieces to display by the checkout
counter.
The need for weather Indexes—simple tools for making quick business decisions based
on meteorological factors—is in high demand, and with good reason. Businesses across the
world require information on meteorological phenomena in order to successfully appeal to
customers and manage store responsibilities. We, a team of talented meteorologists called The
Indexers, are interested in forecasting and advising for your several Leslie’s pool locations with
the ultimate goal of improving your profit versus cost ratio while also enhancing your entire
business experience. With our years of knowledge and experience in the field of meteorology, as
well as our familiarity with meteorological tools such as satellites, weather models, and the
National Weather Service’s watches and warnings, we developed a weather savvy index
specifically for Leslie’s stores . Quick business decisions, specifically for Leslie’s Poolmart, and
both employee and customer satisfaction are underway with the use of our weather index,
Leslie’s Legend, as long as you are prepared to sit back, relax, and let us take the weight of
inventory and marketing decisions based on meteorological data off of your shoulders. Also,
Leslie’s Legend index is not mass produced, but instead created specifically for the Leslie’s pool
industry business. It utilizes multiple weather variables including temperature, cloud cover, dew
point, humidity, and wind to produce a simple and extremely applicable pool index.
Business completion is fierce, and as a chain of pool stores, Leslie’s needs to take advantage of
our meteorological knowledge in order to improve overall sales numbers and compete
successfully in the pool industry. Doesn’t maximizing profit while minimizing cost sound pretty
appetizing? The Indexers goal is to make Leslie’s Legend affordable while also cutting down the
cost of other areas in the business, thus providing Leslie’s Poolmart with a simple, reasonable
weather index which will undoubtedly increase sales and allow a greater profit margin.
The Indexers have researched Leslie’s Pool Industries and understand how your business
works. Leslie’s continued growth depends on increasing comparable store sales while cutting
costs. This will lead to an expansion in new and existing markets. Leslie’s Legend will increase
store sales as the knowledge of meteorological phenomena provides an advantage in many
different areas of the pool business. For example, if you know it is going to rain two days in
advance, employees can display pool care supplies such as pH strips to the front of the store or
near the cash register to hook a customer’s attention.
Not only will Leslie’s sell more products by incorporating Leslie’s Legend into
marketing decisions such as weekly sales on inventory and inventory placement, but it will also
prepare inventory for customer needs based on the weather. Also, the more positive experiences
a customer has with Leslie’s Poolmart locations, the more likely these customers will remain
loyal to your business. By having exactly what your customer needs, at the appropriate time—
hence the importance of our 7-day forecast which we will provide your stores based on their
individual locations—Leslie’s sends a positive message such as, “We care about your pools and
your experience at our store” to it’s customers. This “feel good” factor that the customer leaves
with is important to your stores and your wallet. Much of the competition Leslie’s Pools faces
every day is small “mom and pop” shops, which rely heavily on customer loyalty.
In 2007 Leslie’s opened thirty-six net new stores, 2008 Leslie’s opened twenty-seven net
new stores, and 2009 Leslie’s opened eighteen net new stores. With the recent decline in the
economy and increase of home foreclosures, it makes sense that your net new stores are
decreasing and not necessarily a bad thing. There is less construction of new homes and pools.
Consolidation would most likely be the best route as a pool business to take. It makes sense that
new stores are decreasing because it ensures Leslie’s a profitable gross margin. This keeps
customer service and satisfaction a top priority for your company with less expansion. Leslie’s
Legend is just the tool you need to help Leslie’s accomplish this goal.
There is more than a seasonal component to be considered when running Leslie’s Pools;
Factors that go into the weather that can make or break a season’s profit like excessive high
temperatures, low temperatures for a particular area, a heavy rainy season, or even excessive
high winds. If you know it’s going to be a warm season, Leslie’s can take advantage of
advertising earlier in the season for products that would be of use to pool owners. If it is going to
be chilly, they can have discounts on new and more efficient pool heaters to get people into the
store to buy things. It takes a minimum of three months to make a commercial from idea to TV.
If you had a long range forecast or index in place, this could help make better weather and
business savvy advertisements.
Leslie’s Pools has been making money over the years. The Indexers understand Leslie’s
Pools knows how to run the business and have been doing it well. This has shown just by
looking at your profit margin year to year, or how Leslie’s has adapted to the ever-changing
economy. Our company trusts Leslie’s Pools to make accurate business decisions based on our
index, Leslie’s Legend, which simply focuses on the meteorological factors. Our thing is
weather, and your thing is business, and as a combined force we can encourage positive sales
weeks and ultimate customer satisfaction at Leslie’s locations across the nation. Also, we
understand how the weather works, but most importantly how to communicate it to you. Leslie’s
Legend is not only going to increase your knowledge of the weather in an understandable way,
but our index is going to make you the most money of any other index out there. Leslie’s
Poolmart has pool care made easy, which is only going to get easier with the application of our
weather index, Leslie’s Legend.
With tons of available weather information and easy access to the internet, it is simple to
click on weather.com or national weather service and get a forecast. However, Leslie’s Poolmart
needs more expertise to make quick game time decisions in the real world. Leslie’s needs an
insider and in depth look to the weather. Leslie’s Legend was created with a meteorological
expertise. Meteorologists are trained to look behind the models. They understand technical
details involved in weather forecasting and study the evolution of weather systems with the
comprehension of atmospheric motions. Some models can have a warmer or colder bias
compared to others or some models could tend to exaggerate cyclones. Meteorologist doesn’t
only have knowledge of this, but also knows where to look to get the proper and reliable
information. The weather industry has expanded so much in today’s day and age, when Googl-
ing the word “weather” over a million results will be found. A trained meteorologist knows how
to weed out the unreliable data and is familiar with navigating websites to get the proper data.
More specifically the pool industry can profit when they know the weather. More pool
toys can be sold in summer when there is warmer than normal temperatures and the sun is out.
Advertisements can be made to sell more algae control if there are high winds in an area because
the wind will blow the algae spores into the water. Excessive rain can offset the pH level and can
have sales on chemicals like chlorine. Also if it is very sunny with a low cloud cover, more
chlorine will have to be used because chlorine is so susceptible to the sun’s ultraviolent rays.
After frost season is over, if no frost occurs that lots of chemicals could be needed. Also Leslie’s
could maximize in the spring if warmer temperatures occur early spring then pools can be
opened earlier. Winterization along with frost has its effect on pools too.
In Leslie’s Legend, the sources used are weather prediction models and the National
Weather Service. The WARF, GFS, and MOS are the models that were chosen because of their
reliability. These are trustworthy models and each are initialized every 6 hours with different
runs. This has been proven in studies that have been conducted and published in the American
Meteorological Society like the Journal, Model Consensus. It states that a multi-model consensus
is much better than a single model consensus and results in smaller mean and absolute errors
when predicting a parameter like upper air temp. So basically looking at the ensembles is best
because it takes into account all of the runs of the particular models. Also another source from
the American Meteorological Society is from the Verification of Extra tropical Cyclones within
the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts.
This was published in 2009 and explicitly states that the models have improved at predicting
over the past 5 years significantly in the 0-2 day cyclone forecasts in eastern US. Also a large
improvement was made in cyclone pressure prediction in the eastern pacific US as well. These
are just two sources of how meteorology has been improving and will continue to improve.
Meteorology is also improving because the field has been broadening over the past 50
years. There is more scientists with meteorology, thus leading to a more comprehensive way of
study and development of new technology. The development of computers has helped
meteorology in a plethora of ways and jump started weather communication to the public. Today
meteorologists are able to incorporate more atmospheric variables in computations. Research has
shown the computing performance and speed increased by a factor of 10 every 5 to 6 years. All
of these factors have allowed for easy sharing of real time weather data. Now forecasts are able
to be made 7 days out and be accurate where in the past this wasn’t the case.
The other main source of information is the National Weather Service, NWS. The reason
being is that they are the only sector of the communication enterprise to have the power to issue
the watches and warnings. The NWS uses the advancement in radar and satellite imagery, the
better understanding of storms, to better issue watches and warnings. Improvement of severe
weather watches accuracy increased from 63%in 1975 to 90%in 1996. (Mergen, pg. 36) Also
part of the government called National Satellite and Information Service, they release all of the
satellite and radar images to the public. However, all of this data will be used and not copied off
of the National Weather Service’s website. A personalized forecast will be made using the index
conditions.
Quick business decisions are key in this ever changing economy. Leslie’s Legend is a
quick reference to promote the ease of business and profits specifically for the pool industry.
Understanding the weather effects on business would help Leslie’s plan to effectively run the
business. Many variables that directly affect pool usage and store visitation are considered in this
index. These variables include season, departure from normal temperature, cloud cover, relative
humidity, and probability of precipitation. Each variable has a different weight according to the
importance and effect on the industry.
Season is the most important factor in a pool business. As corporate heads know, summer
is the best season for profit. During these summer months, business booms because this season
pools are finally open. The hotter temperatures drive people into their pools. Also children are
home for the summer break so they have a lot more time to access the pool and use the pool toys.
The continued wear and tear of the pool and its supplies prompts pool owners to purchase more
which is great for business. Summer is the prime business season however; spring is still
profitable as well. Preparing pools for the summer months takes a lot of preparation ahead of
time. Many people buy their chemicals and other products in the springtime and some even have
their pool opened in this season. The weather starts to warm up reminding people that the pool
season is close. The spring holiday, Memorial Day, is a very popular weekend to start summer
festivities and open pools. Fall is the season when business starts to decline, however money is
still to be made in this season. When the summer months come to a close, pool owners focus on
closing their pools. Closing pools takes additional supplies which creates business; people need
pool covers , and other products to winterize their pool. This season does have some positive
aspects for the business. Winter is obviously the worst months for profit. This season has a
negative effect on business which is weighted into the index. However, this index will create
more profit to offset the hard winter business.
Another heavily weighted variable is the departure from normal temperature. Day to day
temperature was not used because the most important days are when the temperature is above
average. If a day in May reaches ninety degrees, pool owners are more likely to open their pool
earlier. The same concept applies to all the months. During the summer, when temperatures are
exceedingly high, pool usage is at an all time high. People will also keep their pools open longer
if there are days of above average temperatures later in the pool season. All these aspects are
great for business because this could potentially prolong pool seasons. More supplies are needed
to maintain this continued pool usage.
Cloud cover is the next important factor that directly affects business. This has a big
affect on the amount of time that is spent in a pool. When the sky is clear, the sun is out creating
perfect pool conditions. People are more likely to be outside tanning and cooling off with a dip
in the pool. However, the sun can create problems for the health of the pool. With increased
sunshine, the pool is more likely to develop algae problems. Many people prefer not to swim
when a pool does have an algae problem. The effect of sunshine is great for business because
pool owners have to maintain their pools when there is extra usage, and they have to fix algae
problems which send them to pool stores for chemicals. Even though clear conditions are the
best for business, profit is still made on partly and mostly cloudy days because sunshine still
makes it through the clouds. Essentially the greater the sunshine means the greater the profit for
the business. Therefore, cloudy days would have a more negative effect on business which is
accounted for in the index.
Temperature is not the only factor that affects the way it feels outside. Relative humidity
plays a large part in how your body feels. Our body relies on sweating in order to cool off in hot
temperatures. When the relative humidity is high, there is a lot of moisture in the air which
prevents our sweat from evaporating thus trapping our heat within our bodies. This reason makes
relative humidity another weighted factor in this index. Days that are eighty degrees can feel
stifling with high humidity levels which sends most straight into their pools for relief. A
comfortable level of relative humidity is around 45 percent; days in the summer can exceed this
number tremendously. This means that the higher the humidity the better the business outlook.
As discussed before, weather conditions that promote more pool use is great for business in
terms of maintenance and pool toys.
The final variable that is accounted for everyday is the probability of precipitation. This
is the smallest weighted factor but still an important aspect. Although most pool owners would
consider a rainy day a bad time to use the pool, money is still made for business. When rain is in
the forecast, people tend to stay indoors and resort to other activities. However, even though
people are less likely to use their pools, rain does affect pools in a positive way for business.
The pool water has a specified pH and chlorine balance that is maintained and checked often.
When rain is included in the formula, the balance needs to be adjusted and more chemicals need
to be added to maintain the levels. It does take a lot of rain to noticeably affect the balance
which is why this variable is not as heavily weighted.
All these variables produce an accurate forecast for day to day business in the pool
industry. Each variable’s weight was decided by determining how much individual effect it had
on pools. These factors are great for average weather cases however; extreme cases must be
included to create the most accurate index.
After analyzing the reasons for reduced pool usage, the most important causes were from
storms ranging from thunderstorms to hurricanes. These storms have many aspects in common
like rain and wind; however they range in different magnitudes. Since rain is considered a
positive aspect, we classified these storms through their wind speeds. In the case of a
thunderstorm or a hurricane, the business would be affected negatively because the pool would
not be in use and making it to pool stores would not be safe for the public. The pool industry
wants customers to understand how extreme weather can be dangerous for those in a pool even if
it is not the best for business. This variable has a large affect on business but is only factored
into the index in the extreme cases; when winds start exceeding 30 miles per hour, wind variable
is included.
After computing the index, the outcome will be three simple results determined by ranges
of values. These three include high index, medium index, and low index. A high index is a day
that is great for business, a medium index is a day that is an average for business, and a low
index is a bad business day. These simplified results allow businessmen to make decisions fast
without being confused by the details however more details can be offered if the company
chooses that option. The Leslie’s Legend will be calculated for every 622 store locations so the
individual store can make well-informed business decisions. The results of the store’s index can
be found on our company’s website with a password secure login. Each store has a forecast for a
seven day business outlook which will be updated every night at 10pm. The company can
choose to get emails when the information has been changed. In order to view a nationwide
outlook to see what region will have the best business, a colored country map will be included in
the updates but
on a weekly basis
unless the
company chooses to
adds more
updates. Each index
result is
assigned a color; a
high index is
red, a medium index
is blue, and a
low index is yellow.
Every store location will have a color on the map depending on their index forecast hence giving
a broad outlook of Leslie’s national business. This is an easy way to pick out the best regions to
advertise and prepare for the future days ahead. In severe cases, such as hurricanes, an email
notification can be sent to further prepare the business in the regions that will be affected. The
business can save a lot of money the sooner they are notified about severe weather because they
can plan ahead of time.
As you wake up in the morning, pull back the drapes on your bedroom window, and rub
off the thin film over your eyelids with the tops of your fingers, the first thought of the day runs
through your head; What’s should I wear? Is it warm enough for shorts and a tee-shirt, or should
I grab some jeans and a sweater? Do I need an umbrella—those clouds sure don’t look pleasant
as they take on a greyish-black color and appear to straddle the entire right-half of the sky. So
what do you do? Do you risk walking downtown in sandals and shorts, umbrella-less…or do you
turn on Channel 4 Action News and let your favorite meteorologist do the thinking for you?
“How easy was that!” you say, “60% chance of rain today, with below normal temperatures for
mid-May—I think I’ll go with the Levis!”
Meteorology is a part of everyone’s everyday life, whether it’s deciding which shirt and
shoes to wear, or which merchandise to display at the front of the store. Meteorologists around
the world help make these decisions easy for people as they use their years of knowledge and
experience to advise, warn, and even protect the public from natural disasters. Behind every
umbrella, every blanket at a football game, and every salt truck in the middle of the night, is a
meteorologist who predicted, protected, and advised—and we’re ready to help you, the members
of Leslie’s Pools, make accurate business decisions based on the weather, also. You can’t do it
alone—so let us lend you our explicit knowledge we meteorologists have acquired through years
of education and experience with weather phenomena. Leslie’s employees are a group of
intelligent people, and we understand these employees could easily obtain the computer models
we use to aid in weather forecasts every day—but do you really know what those models mean?
Can you actually interpret those models, and look beyond those models, like we can—like we
have been through our years of experience with computer models such as the NAM, MOS and
the GFS? You need us. We will make your business more efficient, less stressful, and more
profitable as we take the weight of making business decisions based on meteorological
phenomena off of your shoulders, and load it onto ours. Let us do what we do best—forecast—so
you can do what you do best—sell.
Meteorological factors greatly affect many aspects of Leslie’s Pool business. On a warm,
bright, sunny day, customers will be more inclined to purchase pool toys for the children to use
during playtime, rafts and floating devises for adults to relax on and enjoy, and algae control
applications to maintain the safety and cleanliness of the pool water. On the other hand, any
amount of precipitation can alter the pH of a pool, and require certain applications to maintain
the health of the pool water, and the safety of those using the pool. We can help you decide when
it is important for individual stores to order these certain products based on the weekly weather
outlook we will provide each store, thus allowing your employees to prepare for customers and
to bring these products to the front of the store. Each one of our employees has at least a
bachelor’s degree in meteorology, guaranteeing a forecast which is as accurate as possible and
insuring the appropriate preparation of each of your stores’ inventory. We have both the training
and the experience in the field of meteorology to pledge the correctness of every forecast to the
best of our ability.
The forecasts we will provide for Leslie’s are also specifically developed according to
each store’s geographical location. Based on the location of individual stores, our team will
compile all of the meteorological evidence available from climatological data to current weather
patterns in order to form an accurate forecast specific to individual stores. Through links to
regional store forecasts on our website, and through emailed discussions explaining the outlook
for each week per location, we will equip each Leslie’s store with the meteorological knowledge
it will need to inspire a successful sales week, month, and year. Our simplistic color-coded maps
developed for each day of the week will make business decisions quick and easy, while weekly
forecast discussions will insure Leslie’s employees’ deeper knowledge of meteorological
phenomena and why said phenomena is occurring.
After reading through Leslie’s 10K paperwork, our team of meteorologists have a
thorough understanding of the business’s weaknesses, strengths, inventory, and numbers relating
to sales, costs, and profit. We know which areas to address within our weekly forecast
discussions, and we certainly know we can encourage positive sales weeks with respect to
inventory preparation and temptation due to current weather conditions. By displaying chlorine
tablets at the front of the store during a week of sunny and clear condition, customers will be
more tempted to purchase these tablets. Our team also allows for add-ons to the current contract,
which can be discussed during our bi-yearly one-on-one web sessions with Leslie’s district
managers. Our team of meteorologists is here to help you, Leslie’s stores, and only you have a
more profitable and pleasant fiscal year.