Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Lesson Title: Distracted Driving and Linear Regression Primary Author: Justin Field, Chesapeake High School, Baltimore County Public Schools Peer Reviewed and Revised By: Arra Chung, Overlea High School, Baltimore County Public Schools Background Information Subject: Identify the course the unit will be implemented in. Algebra I (Or Unit 3 of Algebra 2) (data appears to actually be quadratic, although it is appropriate to begin by performing a linear regression and plotting the residual values in order to draw that conclusion. Grade Band: Identify the appropriate grade band for the lesson. 9-12 Duration: 45 – 90 minutes Identify the time frame for the unit. Overview: Provide a concise summary of what students will learn in the lesson. It explains the unit’s focus, connection to content, and real world connection. STEM Specialist Connection: Describe how a STEM Specialist may be used to enhance the learning experience. STEM Specialist may be found at http://www.thestemnet.com/ Students will explore the real-world problem of distracted driving by analyzing the relationship between auto accident fatalities over time and auto accident fatalities over time due to distracted driving for the years 2005-2009. Students will create scatter plots and linear regression equations as well as analyze their results. Students will interpret the meaning of the slope, y-intercept, correlation coefficient, and graphs of the residual values in the context of the accident and distracted driving data. Student will use data to support or refute that claim that distracted driving increases the amount of fatal accidents. A STEM Specialist may be used to in a variety of ways in this lesson. Listed below are some suggestions: 1. Engagement – The STEM Specialist can be used to engage students in hands-on activities that demonstrate how statistics can be used to predict future outcomes. 2. Exploration – The STEM Specialist can assist students in developing and analyzing graphs. Enduring Understanding: Identify discrete facts or skills to focus on larger concepts, principles, or processes. They are transferable - applicable to new situations within or beyond the subject. Statistics can be used to provide a measure of probability of observing certain outcomes. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 1 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Background Information Essential Questions: Identify several open-ended questions to provoke inquiry about the core ideas for the lesson. They are grade-level appropriate questions that prompt intellectual exploration of a topic. Student Outcomes: Identify the transferable knowledge and skills that students should understand and be able to do when the lesson is completed. Outcomes must align with but not limited to Maryland State Curriculum and/or national standards. Product, Process, Action, Performance, etc.: Identify what students will produce to demonstrate that they have met the challenge, learned content, and employed 21st century skills. Additionally, identify the audience they will present what they have produced to. How are statistics used to support the dangers of distracted driving ? Students will be able to: ● graph a linear regression line. ● create a scatter plot. ● find the linear regression to interpret data and make predictions. ● interpret the meaning of a graph of residual values given a regression equation for a set of data. ● develop an argument using data to support or refute a claim. Audience: ☐Peers ☐Experts / Practitioners Students will construct an argument to support or refute the ☒Teacher(s) claim that distracted driving increases the amount of fatal accidents. Students will use data to support their argument. ☐School Community ☐Online Community ☐Other______ Maryland Common Core State Algebra I Curriculum Framework: Standards Addressed in the Unit: Identify the Maryland State Curriculum Standards and/or national standards addressed in the unit. A.CED.2 Create equations in two or more variables to represent relationships between quantities; graph equations on coordinate axes with labels and scales. A.REI.1 Explain each step in solving a simple equation as following from the equality of numbers asserted at the previous step, starting from the assumption that the original equation has a solution. Construct a viable argument to justify a solution method. A.REI.10 Understand that the graph of an equation in two variables is the set of all its solutions plotted in the coordinate plane, often forming a curve (which could be a line). This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 2 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Background Information F.IF.4 For a function that models a relationship between two quantities, interpret key features of the graph and the table in terms of the quantities, and sketch the graph showing key features given a verbal description of the relationship. Key features include: intercepts; intervals where the function is increasing, decreasing, positive, or negative; relative maximums and minimums; symmetries; end behavior; and periodicity. S.ID.6 Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and describe how the variables are related. a. Fit a function to the data; use functions fitted to data to solve problems in the context of the data. Use given functions or choose a function suggested by the context. Emphasize linear and exponential models. b. Informally assess the fit of a function by plotting and analyzing residuals S.ID7 Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant term) of a linear model in the context of the data S.ID8 Compute (using technology) and interpret the correlation coefficient of a linear fit Maryland Common Core State Curriculum Framework Reading Standards for Literacy in Science and Technical Subjects RST.9-10.7 Translate quantitative or technical information expressed in words in a text into visual form (e.g., table or chart) and translate information expressed visually or mathematically (e.g., in an equation) into words. Maryland Common Core State Curriculum Framework Standards for Writing in Science and Technical Subjects WHST.9.10.1 Write arguments focused on discipline-specific content. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 3 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Background Information Equipment: TI Graphing Calculators Computer connected to a projector Websites*: Data in the handout was retrieved from: http://www.distraction.gov/research/pdffiles/distracted-driving-2009.pdf (Page 2 chart) Engagement Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR82z0tzMdc Suggested Materials and Resources: Identify materials needed to complete the unit. This includes but is not limited to websites, equipment, PowerPoints, rubrics, worksheets, and answer keys. Alternate Video Websites: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fbiHwGBsRr0 Have students explain what happened when the participants drove normally verses when they were texting or under the influence of alcohol. What did the video identify as making these distractions so dangerous? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K2D3hB278Gc Ask the students what makes it difficult to follow the rule of not texting while driving seeing the harsh consequences and results that can occur? Additional Information on Distracted Driving http://www.infographicsshowcase.com/teen-driving-distractions/ Flyer on teenagers driving distracted http://www.tnonline.com/2013/feb/27/texting-and-driving-statistics Texting and Driving Statistics http://www.edgarsnyder.com/car-accident/cell-phone/cell-phone-statistics.html Article on cell phone and driving statistics http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1114.pdf Data on types of crashes in 2009 * Throughout the lesson, students are linked to online resources in order to conduct research. The sites have been chosen for their content and grade-level appropriateness. Teachers should preview all websites before introducing the activities to students and adhere to their school system’s policy for internet use. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 4 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Background Information People, Facilities: STEM Specialist – Algebra Materials (rubrics, worksheets, PowerPoints, answer keys, etc.): Student Resources: 1. Distracted Driving Linear Regression 2. Calculator Notes on Linear Regression Teacher Resources: 1. Distracted Driving Linear Regression Answer Key 2. Suggested Argumentative Writing Rubric http://www.schoolimprovement.com/docs/Common%20Core%20Rubrics_Gr9-10.pdf This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 5 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Learning Experience 5E Component Identify the 5E component addressed for the learning experience. The 5E model is not linear. ☒Engagement ☐Exploration Details Materials: Computer connected to a projector. Cell phone. ☐Explanation Preparation: ☐Extension ☐Evaluation Have video loaded and ready to play. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR82z0tzMdc Facilitation of Learning Experience: Prior to class, ask a student to send a text to another student at the beginning of the class. When you see the student looking at his/her phone, make a simple comment or question, and then call on that student for a response. Follow with a brief discussion on how quickly a person get can get distracted and then have the class watch the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR82z0tzMdc Standards for Mathematical Practices ☐Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. ☐Reason abstractly and quantitatively. ☐Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. ☐Model with mathematics ☐Use appropriate tools strategically ☐Attend to precision. ☐Look for and make use of structure. ☐Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 6 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Learning Experience 5E Component Identify the 5E component addressed for the learning experience. The 5E model is not linear. ☐Engagement ☒Exploration ☐Explanation ☐Extension ☐Evaluation Details Standards for Mathematical Practices Materials: TI Graphing Calculators Student Resource 1: Distracted Driving Linear Regression Student Resource 2: Calculator Notes on Linear Regression Preparation: Make copies of the handouts for students. You may provide students all the handouts at once or allow students to complete one sheet then provide them with the next. ☐Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. ☐Reason abstractly and quantitatively. ☐Construct viable arguments and critique Facilitation of Learning Experience: the reasoning of others. Provide students with copies of the Distracted Driving Linear Regression Handout ☐Model with Students will think, write, and share their responses to the following question: mathematics What are some ways/tools that can distract drivers on the road? How does it ☒Use appropriate tools affect how a person drives? strategically Finding the Linear Regression Line ☒Attend to precision. Teachers please remind students to turn on the diagnostics so the correlation coefficient is displayed when determining the line of regression ☒Look for and make use of structure. Students will use graphing calculators to calculate the linear regression of fatal accident due to distracted driving. Provide guidance to students as they work through the problems in the handout. ☐Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. Student Resource 2: Calculator Notes on Linear Regression This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 7 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Learning Experience 5E Component Identify the 5E component addressed for the learning experience. The 5E model is not linear. ☐Engagement ☐Exploration ☒Explanation ☐Extension ☐Evaluation Details Materials: Student Resource 1: Distracted Driving Linear Regression Student Resource 2: Calculator Notes on Linear Regression Facilitation of Learning Experience: Analysis of the Data After students have completed the graphs and analysis of the two situations, they should individually answer questions within the summary portion of the lesson in preparation for a class discussion of their answer (If needed, provide students with the calculator notes on how to determine the line of regression using a calculator). Standards for Mathematical Practices ☐Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. ☒Reason abstractly and quantitatively. ☒Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. ☐Model with mathematics ☐Use appropriate tools strategically ☐Attend to precision. ☐Look for and make use of structure. ☐Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 8 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Learning Experience 5E Component Identify the 5E component addressed for the learning experience. The 5E model is not linear. ☐Engagement ☐Exploration ☐Explanation Details Materials: Teacher Resource 1: Distracted Driving Linear Regression Answer Key Teacher Resource 2: Suggested Argumentative Writing Rubric http://www.schoolimprovement.com/docs/Common%20Core%20Rubrics_ Gr9-10.pdf ☐Extension Facilitation of Learning Experience: ☒Evaluation Use the answer key to evaluate answers. Teacher Resource 1: Distracted Driving Linear Regression Answer Key The argumentative writing rubric may be use to assess question six, “Construct an argument to support or refute the claim that distracted driving increase the amount of fatal accidents. Use data to support your argument.” Alternative activities include having students do oral presentations or developing public service announcements to raise awareness about the dangers of distracted driving. Standards for Mathematical Practices ☐Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. ☐Reason abstractly and quantitatively. ☐Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. ☐Model with mathematics ☐Use appropriate tools strategically ☐Attend to precision. ☐Look for and make use of structure. ☐Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 9 of 19 Distracted Driving Algebra I Lesson Learning Experience 5E Component Identify the 5E component addressed for the learning experience. The 5E model is not linear. ☐Engagement Details Materials: Teacher Resource 1: Distracted Driving Linear Regression Answer Key ☐Exploration ☐Explanation Facilitation of Learning Experience: ☐Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. Residual Plots ☐Reason abstractly and quantitatively. Haves students complete the residual plots question on their worksheet. ☒Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. ☒Extension ☐Evaluation Standards for Mathematical Practices ☐Model with mathematics ☐Use appropriate tools strategically ☐Attend to precision. ☐Look for and make use of structure. ☐Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. This lesson was developed through a collaboration with the Maryland Business Roundtable for Education and the Maryland State Department of Education Office of STEM Initiatives. Page 10 of 19 Algebra I Name: Distracted Driving and Fatal Car Crash Linear Regression Directions: Write your response to the questions below in the space given below. What are some ways/tools that can distract drivers on the road? How does it affect how a person drives? Directions: 1. Fatal Accidents by Year 1. Plot the data on the graph to the right 2. Graph the line of best fit on the scatter plot to the right. 3. Determine the linear regression and calculate the r2 coefficient. Equation: ______________________________ r2:_______ 4. Using your equation how many accidents due to distractions will there be in 2014? 5. What does the correlation coefficient reveal about how well the regression line fits the data? 6. What is the general trend in the number of accidents due to distractions per year? 7. In what year would there be 25,000 accidents due to distractions? Directions: 2. Fatal Accidents by Year Due to Distractions 1. Plot the data on the graph to the right 2. Graph the line of best fit on the scatter plot to the right. 3. Determine the linear regression and calculate the r2 coefficient. Equation: ______________________________ r2:_______ 4. Using your equation how many accidents due to distractions will there be in 2014? 5. What does the correlation coefficient reveal about how well the regression line fits the data? 6. What is the general trend in the number of accidents due to distractions per year? 7. In what year would there be 2,000 accidents due to distractions? Year since 2005 0 1 2 3 4 Year 0 1 2 3 4 Year since 2005 0 1 2 3 4 Year 0 1 2 3 4 Fatal Accidents 39,252 38,648 37,435 34,172 30,797 Accidents 39,252 38,648 37,435 34,172 30,797 Fatal Accidents 4,026 5,245 5,329 5,307 4,898 Accidents 4,026 5,245 5,329 5,307 4,898 Analyzing the Data 1. Examine the linear regression equation in situation 1. What do the slope and y intercept represent in the context of the data? 2. What does the model predict for the number of accidents in 2013? 3. What does the model predict for the number of accidents in 1990? 4. Examine the linear regression equation in situation 2. What do the slope and y intercept represent in the context of the data? 5. Does the model’s prediction for the number of accidents in 1990 make sense? (What technology was available to distract driver’s from 2005-2009 that was not available in 1990?) 6. On a separate sheet of paper, construct an argument to support or refute the claim that distracted driving increase the amount of fatal accidents. Use data to support your argument. Residual Plots Examining the residual plots for the two data sets, what conclusions can you draw about how well the linear models fit the data? Residuals for Situation 1 Residuals for Situation 2 Algebra I Name: Distracted Driving and Fatal Car Crash Linear Regression Answer Key Directions: Write your response to the questions below in the space given below. What are some ways/tools that can distract drivers on the road? How does it affect how a person drives? Answers will vary Drinking Eating Putting make up on Using cell phones Answers will vary Accidents Death Paralysis Driving outside of the lanes Directions: 1. Fatal Accidents by Year 1. Plot the data on the graph to the right 2. Graph the line of best fit on the scatter plot to the right. 3. Determine the linear regression and calculate the r2 coefficient. Equation: __ y = .2138.6x + 40338 _________ r2:_0.91____ 4. Using your equation how many accidents due to distractions will there be in 2014? 21090.6 fatal accidents 5. What does the correlation coefficient reveal about how well the regression line fits the data? Year since 2005 0 1 2 3 4 Year 0 1 2 3 4 Fatal Accidents 39,252 38,648 37,435 34,172 30,797 Accidents 39,252 38,648 37,435 34,172 30,797 There is a strong positive linear correlation 6. What is the general trend in the number of accidents due to distractions per year? The number of accidents decrease 7. In what year would there be 25,000 accidents due to distractions? Year 7 - 2012 Directions: 2. Fatal Accidents by Year Due to Distractions 1. Plot the data on the graph to the right 2. Graph the line of best fit on the scatter plot to the right. 3. Determine the linear regression and calculate the r2 coefficient. Equation: ___ y = 180.6x + 4599.8___________ 0.27_____ r2:__ 4. Using your equation how many accidents due to distractions will there be in 2014? 6225.2 fatal accidents 5. What does the correlation coefficient reveal about how well the regression line fits the data? There is a weak positive linear correlation 6. 7. What is the general trend in the number of accidents due to distractions per year? The number of accidents increase In what year would there be 2,000 accidents due to distractions? Year 14 - 2019 Year since 2005 0 1 2 3 4 Year 0 1 2 3 4 Fatal Accidents 4,026 5,245 5,329 5,307 4,898 Accidents 4,026 5,245 5,329 5,307 4,898 Analyzing the Data 1. Examine the linear regression equation in situation 1. What do the slope and y intercept represent in the context of the data? Slope: The number of fatal accidents decreases by about 2138 each year. Y-Intercept: The number of fatal accidents in 2005 was 39,252. 2. What does the model predict for the number of accidents in 2013? Y = -2138.6 (8) + 40338 = 23229.2 fatal accidents 3. What does the model predict for the number of accidents in 1990? Y = -2138.6 (-15) + 40338 = 72467 fatal accidents 4. Examine the linear regression equation in situation 2. What do the slope and y intercept represent in the context of the data? Slope: The number of fatal accidents caused by distraction increases by 180 each year. Y-Intercept: The number of fatal accidents caused by distractions in 2005 was 4026. 5. Does the model’s prediction for the number of accidents in 1990 make sense? (What technology was available to distract driver’s from 2005-2009 that was not available in 1990?) Answers may vary - Yes because based on the linear regression line, there were about 1891 fatal accidents caused by distractions which are smaller than the number of accidents that are stated in the table. Tablets, i-pods, mp3s, etc. 6. On a separate sheet of paper, construct an argument to support or refute the claim that distracted driving increase the amount of fatal accidents. Use data to support your argument. Answers will vary Residual Plots 1. Examining the residual plots for the two data sets, what conclusions can you draw about how well the linear models fit the data? Residuals for Situation 1 Supports a linear model Residuals for Situation 2 Supports a non-linear model