Supplementary Table S1. Kappa values for intraobserver reliability. Assessment Overall PIP MCP Wrist Elbow Shoulder Knee Ankle MTP Greyscale 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.77 0.81 0.86 0.77 0.77 0.76 Power Doppler 0.87 0.91 0.91 0.81 0.82 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.88 Erosions 0.93 - A kappa value of 0-0.2 was considered poor, 0.21-0.40 fair, 0.41-0.6 moderate, 0.61-0.8 good, and 0.81 to 1 excellent. Supplementary Table S2. Distribution of clinical and US findings in joint areas by outcome. Clinical joint area involvement, n (%) PIP swelling MCP swelling Wrist swelling Elbow swelling Shoulder swelling Knees swelling Ankles swelling MTP swelling Clinical joint area symmetry, n (%) PIP swelling MCP swelling Wrist swelling Elbow swelling Shoulder swelling Knees swelling Ankles swelling MTP swelling Greyscale joint area involvement, n (%) PIP MCP Wrist Elbow Shoulder Knees Ankles MTP Greyscale joint area symmetry, n (%) PIP MCP Wrist Elbow Shoulder Knees Ankles MTP Power doppler joint area involvement, n (%) PIP MCP Wrist Elbow Shoulder Knees Ankles MTP Power doppler joint area symmetry, n (%) PIP MCP Wrist Elbow Shoulder Knees Ankles MTP VERA VENRA Resolving 18 (62) 28 (97) 20 (69) 3 (10) 0 14 (48) 8 (28) 5 (17) 5 (39) 6 (46) 2 (15) 1 (8) 0 7 (54) 3 (23) 0 2 (12.5) 3 (19) 2 (12.5) 0 0 7 (44) 7 (44) 0 12 (41) 19 (66) 14 (48) 1 (3) 0 7 (24) 5 (17) 3 (10) 1 (38) 1 (8) 1 (8) 0 0 2 (15) 0 0 1 (6) 0 1 (6) 0 0 1 (6) 5 (31) 0 23 (79) 29 (100) 28 (97) 13 (45) 4 (14) 25 (86) 20 (69) 20 (69) 8 (62) 12 (92) 9 (69) 7 (53) 2 (15) 9 (69) 5 (38) 7 (54) 3 (19) 6 (37.5) 9 (50) 2 (12.5) 2 (12.5) 11 (69) 10 (62.5) 6 (37.5) 14 (48) 27 (93) 25 (86) 7 (24) 2 (7) 15 (52) 10 (34) 16 (55) 5 (38) 5 (38) 6 (46) 2 (15) 2 (15) 8 (62) 2 (15) 4 (31) 1 (6) 2 (12.5) 5 (31) 1 (6) 0 7 (44) 4 (25) 2 (12.5) 22 (76) 28 (96) 27 (93) 11 (38) 1 (3.4) 18 (62) 15 (52) 15 (52) 8 (62) 9 (69) 8 (62) 6 (46) 0 4 (31) 3 (23) 2 (15) 1 (6) 4 (25) 9 (56) 1 (6) 0 10 (62.5) 8 (50) 1 (6) 13 (45) 24 (83) 24 (83) 5 (17) 0 8 (28) 8 (28) 10 (34) 2 (15) 4 (31) 5 (38) 0 0 1 (8) 0 0 1 (6) 2 (12.5) 5 (31) 0 0 6 (37.5) 3 (19) 0 Supplemtary Table S3. Final outcome of patients identified by clinical and ultrasound 2010 RA criteria. Baseline clinical 2010 criteria, n = 26 Final diagnosis by 1987 criteria, n (%) RA PsA SLE Parvovirus Pseudogout Reactive Septic Unclassified Baseline USGS 2010 criteria† n = 34 Final diagnosis by 1987 criteria, n (%) RA PsA SLE Parvovirus Pseudogout Reactive Septic Unclassified Final clinical 2010 criteria, n = 25* Final diagnosis by 1987 criteria, n (%) RA PsA SLE Parvovirus Pseudogout Reactive Septic Unclassified VERA 24 (92) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VENRA 0 0 1 (4) 0 0 0 0 1 (4) resolving 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 (79) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 (6) 0 0 0 0 3 (9) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 (6) 25 (96) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 † Clinical examination variables have been replaced by ultrasonographic criteria of joint involvement (usgs≥1) and erosion US: Ultrasound, GS: greyscale ultrasound *Note that 2 patients developing SLE during follow-up are no longer classified as RA at 18 months according to ACR/EULAR 2010 criteria. Only one more patient is classified as having RA during this time period by 2010 criteria.