Psychology 801 – Statistics I Spring 2013 Instructor: Camilo Ortiz, Ph.D. E-mail: drcamilo.ortiz@gmail.com Office phone: (516) 299-3754 Class meeting room: PSC Conference Room Website: http://myweb.brooklyn.liu.edu/cortiz/index.htm Dates: 1/22/13 - 5/2/13. There will be 26 classes. Time: Tuesdays/Thursdays, 10:30-12:00 Office Hours: Wednesday, 12:00-2:00 or by appointment Course Description Psychology 801 is the first part of a two-semester sequence on statistical methods. In this course, we will review the fundamentals of descriptive and inferential statistics. We will also spend a lot of time learning how to use the statistical computer program, IBM SPSS (version 20) to put what we learn into practice. Objectives 1) Better understand the statistical analyses that you read in research studies 2) Increase your readiness to take more advanced courses in statistical methods 3) Identify the appropriate statistical procedure to use for many research questions 4) Feel more confident about using statistical methods to analyze data 5) Carry out several different types of statistical analyses using SPSS 6) Develop your analytic thinking skills 7) Improve your APA writing skills of results sections Method for Assessing Student Progress & Attainment of Objectives Method #1 Twenty-five daily quizzes Method #2 Seven SPSS assignments Method for Evaluation of Student Competency Foundational Ethics: Presence of original ideas and original written work. Individual & Cultural Diversity: Demonstration of understanding of individual and cultural issues in written work and classroom discussion. Professional Development: Evidence of responsible treatment of peers and meeting course responsibilities. Core Competencies Research & Assessment: Understanding of appropriate statistical methods depending on the research question. Lifelong Learning Since the content of the field of psychology significantly changes every ten years or so, each course in the program exposes students to “ways of knowing.” The method in this course for assessing students’ abilities to maintain intellectual curiosity about human behavior, culture, etc is their daily quiz work and SPSS assignments, which demonstrate students’ abilities to think creatively about statistical issues. Required Textbook Field, A. (2009). Discovering Statistics Using SPSS. (3rd edition) Sage Publishing. Required software SPSS is required to complete many of the assignments. It is installed in the computer lab in Lodge B. You can also get a free 14 day download of IBM SPSS here: http://www14.software.ibm.com/download/data/web/en_US/trialprograms/W110742E06714B29.html You can also get an SPSS grad pack (base version) for about $90, which will allow you to do all of the assignments for this class. Pre-requisite 2nd year PsyD student status An introductory undergraduate course in statistics. Blackboard I am slowly adding Blackboard capabilities to this class. This semester, I have set up a discussion group for stats questions. Just log into blackboard (https://blackboard.liu.edu/webapps/login/) and you will see that I have started a thread. If a question comes up after class, just ask it! And if you see that someone has asked a question and you think you know the answer, feel free to answer it! I will of course also answer the question. You can set it up to get an email when someone has responded to the threat. Study Groups I strongly recommend that you form groups of 2-4 people to meet weekly to go over the material. If you feel a little shaky with the topic, these groups will help you and if you are a strong student, you will learn a great deal by teaching the material to your classmates. Academic Integrity A BREACH OF OUR STANDARDS OF ACADEMIC INTEGRITY CAN RESULT IN A FAILURE IN THIS COURSE AND EXPULSION FROM THE PROGRAM. IT IS NOT WORTH IT. WHEN IN DOUBT, CONSULT THE STUDENT HANDBOOK, GRADUATE BULLETIN, AND YOUR PROFESSORS. From Graduate Bulletin, 2012-2013, page 13: “Plagiarism and cheating are not only serious violations of the rules, but also may reflect adversely on the student’s reputation as well as on the reputation of the Campus. Faculty, administrators and the student body share responsibility for academic integrity. A student in violation of accepted academic procedures may be subject to disciplinary action, up to and including expulsion from the Campus.” (See Graduate Bulletin for full policy). Attendance policy Attendance is not taken for this class. As professionals, you must make your own decisions about how to spend your time. However, missing a class means missing a daily quiz, for which there are no makeups for any reason. Grading Scheme Twenty-Five Quizzes: At the beginning of every class (except for the first class) you will have a quiz relating to the main ideas we discussed in the previous class. You will have about 10 minutes to complete these quizzes. Students arriving at 10:40 or later (according to Camilo’s phone) will not be able to take the quiz that day. Calculators are not required but may be helpful in some instances. These quizzes are meant to provide you with consistent feedback throughout the semester. Of the 25 quizzes, I will take your 18 highest scores. Each quiz will be worth 3% of your final grade for a total of 54% of your final grade. There will be no make-ups of these quizzes for any reason. Questions from previous quizzes can and will be reused in later quizzes so examine corrections carefully and do not jettison knowledge from your brain just because you have taken a quiz on it! Seven SPSS Assignments: You will be required to put what you learn into practice! During the semester, you will perform statistical analyses that we learn in class with a set of data. If you don’t have your own data, you may use a set of files that you can download at http://www.sagepub.com/field3e/SPSSdata.htm. Simpler assignments will each be worth 5% of your final grade, and more complex ones will be worth 10% of your final grade, for a total of 45%. A correct (no errors in procedures employed, implementation, interpretation, write-up), complete, welldocumented, and neat assignment receives a score of 4.5/5 (or 9/10 for an assignment worth 10 points). An assignment that goes beyond the minimum required will receive a higher score. For example, you could perform an extra analysis or two. Bold any work that you consider “extra” so there is no chance I’ll miss it. All SPSS assignments must be in APA style and look like Results sections from an APA style manuscript. One free point just for being you. Awwww!!! All assignments should be printed double-sided. Extra Credit: There is no opportunity to earn extra credit. Students who are struggling are strongly urged to attend office hours on a regular basis, as soon as they notice a problem. Do not wait! Just 15 minutes per week in office hours typically makes a big difference! Why does Camilo take off quarter points on quizzes and papers?!?!? Statistical writing is idiosyncratic and at times bizarre. However, there are specific ways to write things that cannot be deviated from. Often a single word can completely change the meaning of a sentence or render it incorrect. For example, writing that a result “approached significance” is incorrect (I’ll explain in class). So there will be times that I will take off a quarter of a point to alert you to a small but important mistake. This is not meant to irritate you! Readings You should do the readings before the class, so that you can ask better questions. The readings should be done with a computer running SPSS in front of you so that you can try out every step in real time. If it does not say “optional” next to a reading, you must read it and you may be tested on it. Homework Problems At the end of each chapter, there are homework problems (Smart Alex’s Tasks). They are just for you to practice. These problems are diagnostic tools so that you can see if you do not understand a particular concept. The best way to use these assignments is to try hard to complete them on your own, and if you cannot, come to office hours and we can go through them to clear up any misunderstandings. Late/Make-up Policy Any work handed in past the deadline (noon on the day the assignment is due) will lose one point immediately and another point for every 24 hours. If you put a late paper in my mailbox, write the date and time on it. If you do not, I will assume it got there right before I picked it up. Accommodation of Disabilities Students with disabilities who require accommodations for this course must contact the Office of Disability Support Services at (516) 299-3057 or learningsupport@cwpost.liu.edu. Scoring Confidentiality When handing in or emailing assignments, please write the last 4 digits of your student ID number (not your social security number) on the assignment, instead of your name, to ensure grading fairness. 7 Layers of Stats Hell Grading Criteria A 93-100 Total Points Work is excellent; student not only demonstrates high achievement but also superior intellectual initiative beyond the objectives of the course; superior test performance; consistent superior performance across all work and tests. A90-92.99 Total Points Work is excellent; student demonstrates either high achievement (by going beyond the requisites of the course) or surpasses expectations for a student at this level; clearly demonstrates knowledge and competence beyond course requirements. B+ 87-89.99 Total Points Work is very good; student demonstrates clear understanding of the material and work is generally proficient and relatively free of errors; very good test performance. B 83-86.99 Total Points Work is acceptable; student has applied requisite understanding of the material; acceptable test performance. B80-82.99 Total Points Work is acceptable but lacking precision or understanding of the material; below average test performance. C 73-79.99 Total Points Work is unsatisfactory due to one or more of the following: failure to consistently complete course assignments, inconsistent professional quality of written material, erratic in meeting deadlines, inadequate or incomplete familiarity with key ideas, concepts and knowledge, flawed written and verbal accounts of information. (Performance below a grade of C in any required course must be remediated until it is determined that the student has sufficiently mastered the material to be able to proceed with the curriculum.) F 72.99 Total Points or Below Work is unacceptable for a graduate student; work errors greatly exceed those of the class, student has not effectively applied knowledge at this level from readings, class; poor performance on tests. COURSE MUST BE REPEATED. INC Work which, as far as it has progressed, is of B- or higher quality, but is incomplete because of illness, accident, or other serious extenuating circumstances. All incompletes must be completed before the end of the next semester or the grade will be automatically changed to an F. The DTC strongly discourages incompletes. They should not be used to grant extensions without the existence of extraordinary circumstances. Class schedule January 22nd: Introduction & Basic Statistical Concepts Reading: Field Chapter 1: Sections 1.5.1.2, (Levels of measurement) 1.5.2, (Measurement error) 1.5.3, (Validity & reliability) & 1.6.2.2 (Types of variation in statistics) Handout from my website on Basic Research Methodology Concepts (Aron, A. & Aron E. (2003). Overview of the logic and language of psychology research. In Statistics for Psychology. Prentice Hall) Gould, J. (2008). gradPSYCH Extra: Get real. Feel like an imposter? You're not alone. http://www.apa.org/monitor/2008/07-08/imposter.aspx January 24th: Distributions, Measures of Central Tendency, z-scores Reading: Field Chapter 1.7.1 through 1.7.4 (Frequency distributions, Skew, Kurtosis, z-scores) Handout from my website on z scores Listen: National Public Radio (NPR) story on Paul Meehl & statistical vs. clinical judgment http://www.npr.org/features/feature.php?wfId=1584411 (8:48 in length) We will listen in class as well. Daily Quiz #1 January 29th: Fitting Statistical Models, Measures of Variability (Residuals, Variance, Standard Deviation), Degrees of Freedom Reading: Field Chapter 1.7.5 (Fitting statistical models) then 2.1 through 2.4.3 (Degrees of freedom) Manjoo, F. (2013). Space Invaders Why you should never, ever use two spaces after a period. Slate Magazine.http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2011/01/space_invaders.single.html Daily Quiz #2 January 31st: Sampling Distributions, Central Limit Theorem, Standard Error, Confidence Intervals Reading: Field Chapter 2.5 through 2.5.2.4 (The standard error, Confidence intervals) Handout from my website on the standard error Assignment #1 due today: Complete by hand and submit both Self Tests on page 38 of your text book. You must show all of your work. (5 points) Daily Quiz #3 February 5th: Test Statistics, p values, Statistical Significance Reading: Field Chapters 2.6 through 2.6.1, (Test statistics, Statistical errors) Chapter 3 (The SPSS environment) Articles on my website: Streiner, D. I. (1996). Maintaining standards: Differences between the Standard Deviation and Standard Error, and when to use each. Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, 41, 498–502. Cohen, J. (1994). The earth is round (p < .05). American Psychologist, 49(12), 997-1003. Haller, H. & Kraus, S. (2002). Misinterpretations of significance: A problem students share with their teachers? Methods of Psychological Research, 7(1), 1-20. Listen: Null-hypothesis Significance Testing: Benign or Malignant? Podcast located at: http://behaviortherapist.podbean.com/2012/01/08/null-hypothesis-significance-testing-benign-or-malignant/ In this episode, Marc Branch, Ph.D. is interviewed about Null-hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST). Topics discussed include: Common misunderstandings about NHST What p really is Side effects of NHST Logical problems with NHST Reasons NHST remains prevalent despite the many known problems Alternatives to NHST Optional: Watch one or more flash movie tutorials on the book’s website about how to work with SPSS at http://www.sagepub.com/field3e/SPSSFlashmovieslect.htm Movie 1: Entering Data Movie 2: The Syntax Window Movie 3: The Viewer Window Movie 4: Exporting SPSS Output to Word (great for writing papers) Movie 5: Excel Movie 6: Importing Text Movie 7: Selecting Cases Movie 8: Editing Graphs Assignment #2 due today: With SPSS running in front of you, do everything that the author does in Chapter 3. Also, create variables in SPSS so that you can enter the data in Table 3.1 (page 72). Use the same variables that are shown in the table, but enter your own numbers so that each of you has different data. Print out and hand in both the data view and the variable view. (5 points) Daily Quiz #4 February 7th: Type I & Type II errors, Effect Sizes Reading: Field Chapter 2.6.2 (One & two tailed tests) 2.6.3 (Type I and II errors) 2.6.4 (Effect Sizes) Chapter 4 (Exploring data with graphs) Chapter 4 should be read in front of a computer running SPSS so you can do exactly what Field does in the chapter. Just reading it without following along will not be helpful. Article on my website: Sun, S., Pan, W., & Wang, L. L. (2010). A comprehensive review of effect size: Reporting and interpreting practices in academic journals in education and psychology. Journal of Educational Psychology, 102(4), 989-1004. doi: 10.1037/a0019507 Watch: A very funny and surprisingly helpful cartoon about statistical significance (3 minutes) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax0tDcFkPic Daily Quiz #5 February 12th: Statistical Power, Clinical Significance Reading: Field Chapter 2.6.5 (Power) Watch: Helpful video on power http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMYxd6QeAss&feature=related Download: G Power Version 3 (A free power program) at www.psycho.uni-duesseldorf.de/abteilungen/aap/gpower3/ Daily Quiz #6 February 14th: V Day No class February 19th: No class (Monday classes meet, Tuesday classes suspended) February 21st: Assessment and Treatment of Missing Data and Outliers Assignment #3 due today: Using your data from the first SPSS assignment, complete “Smart Alex’s” task 1 (not task 2) from page 130. Edit all of the figures so they are easy to read and understand. In other words, do not just send me the junky looking SPSS versions of these charts. You may need to center certain words, add color, change the names of variables, etc. These need to be APA manuscript quality figures, so consult the latest APA publication manual on how to properly format figures. Please cut and paste the charts into a single Microsoft Word document. Below each figure, write a description (not just a title) of what the figure shows. For a great tutorial on how to import and edit SPSS figures in Microsoft Word, go to: http://www.statsmakemecry.com/smmctheblog/2011/2/3/how-to-make-spss-produce-all-tables-in-apaformat-automatica.html 5 points Optional: Article on my website: Schlomer, G. L., Bauman, S. & and Card, N. A. (2010). Best practices for missing data management in counseling psychology. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 57(1), 1-10. Daily Quiz #7 February 26th: Statistical Assumptions of Parametric Data Reading: Chapter 5.1 through 5.5.3 (Exploring statistical assumptions) (Chapter 5 should be read with SPSS running in front of you) Daily Quiz #8 February 28th: Correcting Violations of Statistical Assumptions of Parametric Data, Measuring inter-rater Reliability (Chronbach’s alpha, intraclass correlations) Reading: Daily Quiz #9 Chapter 5.6 through 5.6.2 (Exploring statistical assumptions) March 5th: Correcting Violations of the Statistical Assumptions of Parametric Data: Transformations, Assumption free Tests, Robust Methods Including Bootstrapping Reading: Chapter 5.7 through the end of the chapter (Exploring statistical assumptions) Daily Quiz #10 March 7th: Covariance, Correlation Reading: Chapter 6.1 through 6.4 (Calculating covariance & correlation, CIs for correlation) SPSS Assignment #4 due today: Using one of the SPSS datasets from the book’s website, making sure the dataset has at least one categorical variable and a large number of subjects: 1) Create boxplots for at least 2 continuous variables. Describe any outliers you find. 2) Have SPSS compute skewness and kurtosis for at least 2 continuous variables 3) Compute by hand (no need to show work), the zskewness and zkurtosis for each of these variables (and whether they are statistically significant) 4) Split the file for each of the 2 variables (using the categorical variable) so that you can compute Z-scores of skewness and kurtosis for subgroups of subjects. For example, you could compute skewness and kurtosis on the variable “income” for men and for women separately. 5) Use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test to also examine normality for each variable (including each subgroup). Remember that with large samples, it may not be useful. 6) Find at least 1 variable (possibly from other SPSS datasets from the companion website) that is not normally distributed. Transform the variable until it appears more normal. It doesn’t have to be perfectly normal. Describe the process. 7) Write up your results in paragraph format, as if you were writing the results section for a real study, strictly sticking to APA style. All tables and figures need to be incorporated into the text as if you were writing an APA style results section. Pay particular attention to how you are supposed to report the different types of statistics. Since this SPSS assignment is rather long, leave extra time. 10 points. Daily Quiz #11 March 12th: NO CLASS-Spring Recess March 14th: NO CLASS-Spring Recess March 19th: Orthogonality and Nonorthogonality in Correlation, Partial Correlations Reading: Chapter 6.5 through 6.6.2 (Assumptions of r, R2, Partial correlation) Daily Quiz #12 March 21st: Semipartial Correlation, Suppressor Effects, Factors That Attenuate Correlations Reading: Chapter 6.6.3 through end of chapter (Semi-partial correlations, Comparing independent & dependent rs for statistical significance) Handout: How do I Calculate the Statistical Significance of a Single Correlation/Compare Whether Two Correlations are Significantly Different/Construct Confidence Intervals Around a Correlation? Daily Quiz #13 March 26th: Multiple Regression Fundamental Concepts Reading: Field Chapter 7.1 through 7.2.2 (The method of least squares, Regression weights, Overall fit of a model)) Daily Quiz #14 March 28th: Measures of Model Fit, Introduction to Multiple Regression SPSS Assignment #5 due today: Using one (or more) of the SPSS datasets from the book’s website, making sure the dataset has at least one categorical variable: 1) Compute two Pearson’s correlation, and a point-biserial correlation (rpb). When you report the rpb you must state which group (e.g. men) was higher on the continuous variable. Just stating the correlation, doesn’t tell the reader much. 2) Compute and report 95% confidence intervals around every correlation you report. 3) Compute two partial (or semipartial) correlations. 4) As shown on page 191 (and in the handout I will e-mail you), compare correlations from two subgroups (e.g. men versus women) to each other to see if they are significantly different. Note that the formula for ZDifference in the book is wrong. Both denominator terms should have -3 in them. 5) Write up your results in paragraph format, strictly sticking to APA style. This assignment is short enough that tables are probably unnecessary and results should just be reported in the text. Important! No two students may hand in the same exact variables, although you may work together 10 points Reading: Field Chapter 7.2.3 through 7.5.2 Assessing overall model fit, individual regression weights) Daily Quiz #15 April 2nd: Methods of Regression Reading: Field Chapter 7.5.3 through 7.5.3.4 Daily Quiz #16 April 4th Finishing Up Regression (Interpreting the SPSS Output for Regression From Start to Finish) Reading: Article on my website: Thompson, (1989). Why won’t stepwise methods die? Measurement & Evaluation in Counseling & Development, 21, 146-148. Daily Quiz #17 April 9th: Comparing Two Means (Theory behind Student’s t test) Reading: Chapter 9 (Comparing two means), sections 9.3 through 9.4.7 reread Chapter 5, sections 5.6, 5.6.1, and 5.6.2 (the assumption of homogeneity of variance) Daily Quiz #18 April 11th: Comparing Two Means Part 2 (Student’s t test in Practice, understanding t test as regression) Reading: Chapter 9 (Comparing two means), sections 9.5 through the end of chapter 9 Optional Handout from my website on t tests Daily Quiz #19 April 16th: Introduction to ANOVA Reading: Chapter 10 (ANOVA) (10.1 until and including 10.2.10). Skip 10.2.3 and 10.2.4. Then read 10.5 and 10.7. When you are reading 10.5, stop after the first paragraph on page 390. Daily Quiz #20 April 18th: A Priori Comparisons & Post hoc Contrasts Reading: 10.2.11 until end of chapter (skip pages 367, 368, and most of 369) (A priori comparisons & Post hoc contrasts) Daily Quiz #21 SPSS Assignment #6 due today: Using any of the data sets on the companion website, compare two means using the appropriate t test (independent or dependent). For example, you could compare the mean on some variable for men with the mean on the same variable for women. Alternatively, you could compare the means of two groups receiving different treatments. Make sure to check and discuss all of the assumptions of the t test. In addition, compute and report the appropriate confidence intervals and effect size. Once again, strictly stick to APA style and include (if needed) the appropriate figures or tables, making sure that they are also in APA style and not just cut and pasted from SPSS. Important! No two students may hand in the same exact variables, although you may work together. 5 points April 23rd: Factorial ANOVA Reading: Chapter 12 (Factorial ANOVA) through 12.2.2 Daily Quiz #22 April 25th: Factorial ANOVA cont. Reading: Chapter 12 (Factorial ANOVA) (12.2.3 through end of chapter; skip 12.6 and 12.8) Daily Quiz #23 April 30th: Sphericity in Repeated Measures Designs Reading: Daily Quiz #24 Chapter 13.1-13.2.5 (Sphericity) May 2nd: Repeated Measures Designs Reading: Chapter 13.3 - 13.7 (Repeated measures designs) (read 13.8 through the rest of the chapter if you want a challenge) Daily Quiz #25 SPSS Assignment #7 due today: Using any of the data sets on the companion website, compare three or more means using an ANOVA. Make sure to check and discuss all of the assumptions of the ANOVA. In addition, compute and report the appropriate effect size. Make sure that the ANOVA you run is one that is statistically significant so that you can follow it up with a priori or post-hoc comparisons. In other words, don’t just run an ANOVA that is not significant with no comparisons. Once again, strictly stick to APA style and include the appropriate figures or tables, making sure that they are also in APA style and not just cut and pasted from SPSS. Important! No two students may hand in the same exact variables, although you may work together. 5 points ***Bring your ipad or laptop to complete class evaluations***