S/239/3
Executive Summary of Business
for Senate
Title
Student recruitment and admissions report
Author
Prof Clare Mackie, PVC (Teaching & Learning)
Marcus Williams, Director of Student Recruitment
Rob Evans, Head of Admissions
Richard Fairbank, Senior Planning Officer
Owen Richards, Academic Secretary
Type
Report
Date
March 2014
Strategic context
Student recruitment targets are primary goals of the University’s 20132018 Strategic Plan.
Summary
The paper provides Senate with a mid-year update on the student
recruitment and admissions position, and in particular provides a
briefing in relation to medium-term developments and intake
projections.
Recommendation
Senate is asked to CONSIDER the report.
1
Senate
Student recruitment and admissions report
S/239/3
1. Introduction
This paper provides Senate with a mid-year update on the student recruitment and admissions
position, and in particular provides a briefing in relation to medium-term developments and intake
projections.
The structure of the paper is:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Sector context for Sussex growth targets
- Anticipated sector growth
- Implications for Sussex market share
Admissions – current cycle update
Current short-term (‘conversion’) actions in hand
Medium-term developments
- Removal of student number controls on HEU undergraduates
- Portfolio developments and opportunities
- Marketing and recruitment developments in hand
Risks
2. Putting our 2013-18 Strategic Plan student number targets into sector context
Our Strategic Plan envisages increasing student full-time equivalents (FTEs) from just over 13,000 in
2013/14 to around 18,000 in 2017/18, with student groups growing as set out in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Sussex Students (in full-time equivalents), actual (solid) and target (dotted outline)
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2.1 Sussex growth plans in context of market forecasts. In order to relate our targets to forecast
assumptions for the sector population during the 2013-18 period we have considered the student
population in four categories: HEU Undergraduate and Postgraduate; Overseas Undergraduate and
Postgraduate. Appendix 1 sets out how projections have been arrived at and which assumptions are
being used for each group. Account has been taken of historic time series and forecasts made in
external reports published by government and the Higher Education Policy Institute. Full-time equivalent
figures (FTE) are used to reduce any distorting effect caused by large (and recently volatile) numbers of
part-time students in the system.
2.2 What our targets imply for market share. Sussex student FTEs in each of the four categories
have been compared with the sector totals to give the changing market share implied by achieving
Strategic Plan targets. For all categories of student, achieving our targets will require, to variable
degree, more growth than is forecast for the sector, i.e. higher market share than is currently the case.
This is illustrated in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Sussex share of HE Sector by student type
Figure 2 shows the Sussex share of the Higher Education Sector student FTE totals. Those up to and
including 2012/13 are Sussex actual FTEs as a percentage of sector actuals, 2013/14 are Sussex
actual FTEs as a percentage of sector forecasts (as described earlier) and those from 2014/15 are
Sussex Strategic Plan target FTEs as a percentage of sector forecasts (as set out in Appendix 1).
2.3 HEU undergraduate prospects: (a) UK demographic projections and future forecasts.
Being far the biggest group of students, HEU Undergraduates are the most critical to achieving overall
targets. The Committee has sought commentary on how the University’s growth targets for HEU
undergraduates relates to the forecast decline in 18-20 year olds expected until 2020. Studies by the
government and the Higher Education Policy Institute suggest that increasing participation from underrepresented social groups and meeting unfilled demand following the removal of the Student Number
Control in 2015/16 will offset the demographic downturn and lead to modest growth in the sector (see
Appendix 1, figure 4 for more details).
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2.4 HEU Undergraduate prospects: (b) other market factors. The removal of the Student Number
Control from 2015/16 will allow a larger share of HEU Undergraduates to be recruited by the upper tiers
of UK HE, and Sussex is likely to benefit more than it loses in market share terms. Sussex is also well
placed to take advantage of the forecast increased participation from under-represented groups with one
of the most successful scholarship packages currently offered in the sector. An improvement in League
Table rankings, based on some positive movements already in the pipeline, should increase applicant
numbers. The recovering demographic trend following the Strategic Plan period (see Appendix 1,
Figure 4) provides reassurance of a market continuing to grow in the long-term, and that the targeted
HEU undergraduate numbers can be sustained once achieved. However, 2014/15 will be a difficult
intake year with much resting on the efforts being made to improve conversion rates of prospective
students who have applied.
2.5 HEU Postgraduate prospects. In the context that HEU postgraduate sector numbers have
stalled, we have targeted only modest growth of 10% up to 2018. Sussex’s scholarships have been
well received, the course portfolio is constantly being reviewed and this still seems achievable.
2.6 Overseas Undergraduate prospects. Our targets imply the need to secure the largest market
share (1.8%) for this category of students. Looking at the continuing increases in Appendix 1 Figure 6
from 2006/07 and particularly 2010/11, the further increases required appear feasible as there is a
cumulative effect with recruited students studying for more than one year. However it should be noted
that the increases since 2010/11 coincided with the introduction of Business courses and good league
table position. To meet this target an improvement in League Table rankings will be important (as
discussed in other papers at this meeting). Of a similar order of importance will be the continued
effective development of ‘pathway’ entry routes which prepare overseas students for Sussex degree
study, where we have an established partnership with Study Group, combined with further portfolio
innovations, ideally by 2015/16.
2.7 Overseas Postgraduate prospects. This currently appears the least secure category of students
with UK sector numbers stalled (Appendix 1, Figure 7), and Sussex intakes and market share having
fallen in 2012 and 2013. Current market share is 1% while our targets imply almost 1.7%. League
table standing is important for this group, and there is anecdotal evidence that some overseas markets
are sensitive to ‘political’ media attention. The most conservative forecast for market growth
(Appendix 1 Figure 5) is felt most appropriate for this category of students (although the highest,
based on the 11 year trend, only reduces the required market share to 1.6%).
2.8 Overall summary. To meet overall Strategic Plan targets by 2018 the University’s sector market
share needs to increase from 0.7% currently to around 0.9%. This will be challenging and will require
an improved league table position and vigorously pursuing the range of developments/investments set
out in section 5 below, and we will also be prudently hedging risks by augmenting our portfolio range
with new developments in this period, also set out in section 5. Some key risks are covered in section 6.
3. Admissions – current cycle headlines as at end of February 2014
3.1 Undergraduate
Current HEU undergraduate applications are down 12%, compared to national +4%. This is spread
across subjects. Amongst the likely explanations are:


League table position. The fall in applications (both last year and this) has been largest in the early
part of the UCAS cycle when traditionally the strongest and most informed students are applying.
Changes to Student Number Controls leading to competitive evolution of recruitment tactics: as
part of intensifying competition for those with the highest grades, in 2013, Birmingham began
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
making unconditional offers to their top A level applicants (if they chose Birmingham as their Firm
choice). This year, a number of others (including Leicester, Nottingham and Queen Mary) have
adopted similar tactics. Section 4 details the immediate Sussex response.
Media attention related to protests, including negative media coverage of the violent demonstration
in March 2013, renewed by events in December 2013.
Overseas undergraduate applications show an 8% fall; offers made are down by slightly less (6%). It
is important to note that these figures do not include the 50% of overseas undergraduate students who
are admitted via our on-campus pathway courses run by Study Group, where numbers remain solid.
3.2 Postgraduate Taught
Although the raw number of HEU PGT applications is significantly down (36%), this is skewed by
changes to the way that PGCE applications are handled; if this is set aside the numbers are actually
up 8% on last year, with growth in BMEc, Psychology, Global and LifeSci and for Social Research
Methods. Numbers of students accepting offers are also currently slightly up on last year.
However, overseas PGT applications are down 25%. The decline is across most Schools, with the
largest drop in BMEc, and is due mainly to a drop in applications from China. Figures for other key
markets have remained similar to last year (with growth for Pakistan, Japan, Saudi Arabia and, especially,
Thailand). More encouragingly, numbers of accepted offers are the same as last year at this point.
The reasons for the drop in overseas PGT applications appear again to be led by league table
movements, along with the sensitivity of some overseas markets to ‘political’ media attention. Ongoing visa complexities (and continuing negative publicity in international markets about the generally
unwelcoming UK immigration regime) are also a factor in some regions.
3.3 Postgraduate Research
HEU applications for PGR are up substantially on 2013, and overseas numbers are holding steady.
This HEU growth is in part due to the success of the new Neuroscience 4 year PhD, which has
attracted large numbers of applications, but there has been a general increase in PGR HEU
applications across all Schools and in almost every discipline area. HEU PGR offers have also more
than trebled on the same date last year, with growth in overseas offers as well.
4. Short-term conversion actions in hand
4.1 Conversion actions targeting HEU entrants
4.1.1. Sussex Unconditional Offer Scheme (SUOS) and Sussex Excellence Scholarships
In order to counter the tactical use of unconditional offer-making by competitors, we have introduced
the Sussex Unconditional Offer Scheme: current applicants have been reviewed by the Schools to
select the ‘best’ (15-20%), who were written to explaining that if they choose Sussex as Firm choice,
we will match this commitment by changing their offer to unconditional (in recognition of their
exceptional academic performance to date). To counter the criticism that this approach by HEIs may
undermine student achievement in A levels, we are also offering – distinctively - a new Sussex
Excellence Scholarships worth £3,000 in the first year for those students admitted with AAA or higher
in A level (or equivalent grades in BTEC or IB). The initial response to this initiative has been very
positive. In terms of conversion rate (from offer to firm acceptance) the current ratio is 28% of
applicants firmly accepting, compared to 24% at the same point last year.
4.1.2 Guaranteed acceptance at ABB for firm choice applicants
We have also written to current applicants holding offers who are not included in the SUOS
scheme above, reassuring them that if they accept Sussex as their firm choice we will guarantee
accepting them if they achieve at least ABB grades in August 2014 (even if that involves having
narrowly missed the conditions of their offer). This is intended primarily to reduce the risk of
applicants with medium-good grade expectations placing Sussex as ‘insurance’ choice.
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4.1.3 Other relevant actions and information




Applicant Visit Day arrangements – visitor numbers are being maximised by telephone and email
chasing, and every effort is going into optimising arrangements on these days;
Departments and admissions office are carefully managing offer-making, with borderline candidates
being invited for interviews and checking other possible courses before any rejections. New conversionoriented ‘portfolio review’ interviews have been introduced for Product Design and Drama;
We will reprise the very effective enhanced Clearing arrangements implemented in 2013, involving rapid
response by a team of on-call admissions tutors;
Following the autumn government announcement of 30,000 extra HE places for 2014 entry, we have
been allocated an additional 150 SNC quota (i.e. those with grades below ABB), giving us 1268 SNC
places in total. We will use this full allocation – although we will need to carefully manage it because
HEFCE have confirmed that any 2014/15 SNC overshoot will be fined at £8000 per student for every
year of expected duration of their study (i.e. £24K+).
4.1.3 Converting HEU PG Taught applicants
In addition to our normal focus on effective web-marketing, open day opportunities and fast processing
of offers, the main new conversion tool for this group are the Chancellor's Masters Scholarships, worth
£3000 to students achieving a 1st class degree from a UK university. We expect this scheme, which
was introduced part-way through the 2013 cycle, to be even more effective in the full 2014 entry cycle.
4.2 Conversion actions targeting Overseas students
4.2.1 Online conversion communications/facilities
We are trialling a new online conversion programme utilising Skype, Webinars, E-shots, Chat
Lives and other social media opportunities for applicants to engage virtually with academic staff.
This will be rolled out from April 2014. Applicants will also have flagged to them a range of
support information that will build towards enrolment, including access to International Student
Support, Accommodation, Skills Hub information and the Students’ Union.
4.2.2 English Language requirements for overseas postgraduates.
In consultation with Schools and the Sussex Language Institute we have reviewed and where
appropriate adjusted some IELTS English Language requirements that were unnecessarily high.
5. Medium-term opportunities and developments
5.1 Removal of student number controls on HEU undergraduates
As rehearsed in section 2.4, the removal of government student number controls from 2015/16 will
allow a larger share of HEU Undergraduates to be recruited by the upper tiers of UK HE, and although
competition will be strong, Sussex is likely to benefit more than it loses in market share terms.
Sussex is also well-placed to take advantage of the forecast increased participation from underrepresented groups with a strong reputation for widening access and one of the most successful
scholarship packages currently offered in the sector.
5.2 Portfolio developments and opportunities
Work is ongoing to continue to enhance the general attractiveness of our current portfolio. Within
our undergraduate degrees a key strand is to build up the size and coherence of options for students
to broaden their experience via the options within the Sussex Choice package, i.e.:
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



Electives (free-standing modules that most students can sample outside their major)
Pathways (leading to a named subsidiary award, many interdisciplinary)
Placement opportunities
Study Abroad opportunities
Attractive new interdisciplinary courses are also being developed within and across existing
subject areas, e.g. China Studies.
New developments not assumed within current growth targets
In addition we are actively pursuing the introduction of a major new offering in the biomedical/
pharmacy area, and during the planning period we will develop a new platform for online and
distance learning (ODL), identify opportunities and roll out new ODL offerings.
5.3 Marketing and recruitment developments in hand
5.3.1 Understanding our prospective students: surveying accepters and decliners
We need a timely and granular understanding of why applicants choose to accept or decline our
offers. Hitherto we have periodically conducted ‘accepter and decliner’ surveys through external
agents. This yielded some information, but its usefulness was limited by being retrospective and
based on low response rates. We have now decided to implement an internally-run system whereby
all applicants are routinely asked for feedback at the point that they make their initial decision (to
accept or decline our offer), and also asked further questions if they accept our offer but then do not
actually register as expected. (This was a particular feature of our unexpectedly low 2013 overseas
PG Taught intake.) This approach will apply to all applicant groups, with appropriate variations in
questions and timing. The new system is currently being implemented and is expected to yield
useful intelligence over coming months, leading up to September 2014 entry.
5.3.2 Other UK-oriented developments
a) Brand perceptions work
A major piece of work has begun with a marketing agency in the form of a brand perceptions
audit. This is a large-scale piece of market research to understand stakeholder perceptions of the
University’s brand. The work will include quantitative and qualitative work, encompassing current staff
and students, prospective students, student influencers and external stakeholders. It will provide
learnings to inform our positioning and student recruitment strategy through the planning period. The
work will seek to understand what people perceive to be our underlying brand values and how we best
communicate those values. An interim report in May 2014 will aim to provide remedial actions we can
put in place to drive traffic this year and next. The final report in June will set out clearly where our
opportunities and challenges are, and will provide a roadmap as to how we tackle them.
b) Extension of recruitment radius
Within the UK, according to Youthsight data, our core recruitment radius is currently 54 miles. Our
priority is to grow our recruitment radius in order to steal market share from other institutions. In
practice what does this mean? We will adopt an evidence-based approach, working with a large data
collection agency to understand where we are underperforming geographically and where the
opportunities are for stealing market share and engaging with students who fit our sociodemographic. We expect to factor this in to work planning for Summer 2014.
This connects with giving further thought to how we extend our brand reach. This will involve creating
more opportunities to visit from inward schools visit programmes to more Open Days. It may also lead
to a member of staff being based outside of the South East to raise awareness of the Sussex brand in
schools and colleges outside the region
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c) Partnership working
To give ourselves every chance of meeting our targets, we are also working to develop a long term
marketing strategy in partnership to achieve objectives and segmenting our student audiences as we
currently do to maximise growth. We know that other HEIs, e.g. the OU, have taken a similar
approach. We are currently soft market testing this partnership concept and are working towards a
clear framework and tender process by summer 2014, to inform our work in the 2014/15 cycle.
5.3.3 Overseas-oriented developments
Broad themes of our strategy are:




Diversifying markets, especially mitigating the risk of disproportionate reliance on China;
Investment in in-country operations and partnership arrangements;
Competitive scholarship offer
Leading-edge web, social media and digital marketing.
Specific areas of development include:
a) Enhancing working relationships with agents
We are expanding our existing network of 285 offices in 35 territories, into previously unrepresented areas such as the Middle East, parts of Africa and South-East Asia. We are building
on the success of our Representative Conference in 2013, with 360 degree review of agency
performance and enhanced communications and resource zone for agents. A joined up approach
to co-marketing has been undertaken with some of our trusted agencies targeting specific markets
with good recruitment potential and stretch bonuses put in place where appropriate.
b) In-country staff
Having in-country staff working just for Sussex ensures that recruitment reach is extended and
enhances relationships with agents and partner institutions by regular contact. On the ground
support provides vital market intelligence, and in-country officers will filter applications to
maximise conversion. A China desk officer has been appointed, working from the Beijing China,
Britain Business Council, and an educational counsellor solely dedicated to Sussex is now
working in one of the leading Chinese agents. South East Asia is targeted as a key region for
growth and plans are underway to establish a Kuala Lumpur Office for the University in this cycle.
The office, in the same building as the British Council and a key agent, will be a recruitment hub
for the South East Asian region (including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam).
Study Group are well established in Nigeria (Lagos and Abuja) and having successfully piloted an
arrangement with an SG member of staff focusing on converting Sussex offer holders, we are
extending this model to our agency network in Nigeria and Ghana. Direction over activities will be
given from the University. This potentially provides a successful model for joint approaches to
recruitment and marketing activities in the Middle East and Latin America in particular.
c) International Office in-country recruitment, working in partnership with Schools
Overseas recruitment visits undertaken by International Office staff will continue to increase, and
be made more effective by closer work with the Schools. Visits from academics help to drive
student number growth (and to spot opportunities establishment of undergraduate articulations
etc.). This is being facilitated by international travel awards to co-fund academic staff travel for
recruitment purposes, which can be combined with attending academic conferences. We are also
working with Schools to develop and embed international recruitment action plans.
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d) Developing and promoting international scholarships
In the last two years our range of scholarships available to international scholarships has
been re-calibrated and we now have a very attractive offer, including;
Postgraduate focused:
- Chancellor’s scholarships for International Masters and Doctoral students (for students
coming from any overseas university)
- Chancellors Masters Scholarship scheme (available to international students graduating
from UK universities with a 1st class degree)
- Sussex Graduate Scholarship scheme (available to Sussex students obtaining at least a
2.1 degree and progressing immediately to Masters degree here)
- Sussex Country Scholarships (for students from India, Nigeria, Pakistan
Undergraduate focused:
- Sussex Excellence Scholarships (For undergraduate entrants, including international,
who obtain AAA at A Level)
e) Web, social media and digital marketing
We have transitioned country-specific Facebook groups into one consistent international portal
where prospective students can meet online other prospective students. Stories of interest to
international students are presented, including emphasis on Brighton and other UK Higher
Education stories that may help prepare students for study in the UK. This activity is also
replicated on relevant platforms in China where social media is restricted.
Considerable work has gone into re-developing the University’s international web pages to
encourage applicant engagement online, with a planned launch for late Spring 2014.
Benchmarking of key competitor sites has been undertaken looking at both the look and content
provided. Agents, staff, current and prospective students have fed back into the re-design
which will incorporate clearer sign-posting of information and greater use of video and social
media content to make the international zone more dynamic.
The International Student Ambassador scheme has been re-engineered to provide better
training and incentive for students to work with the International Office on a longer term
basis. The International Ambassadors will also support blogs; instagram and Facebook
posts and will conduct two telephone campaigns targeting applicants in May and July.
Finally, the University has undertaken to partner with the Guardian newspaper in a year-long
‘Student hub’ with the theme of the ‘Global student.’ The Guardian reach is significant within
UK student demographics and globally is second only to the BBC in terms of British website
international readership. The partnership is planned to be launched after the completion of
One World Week with the opportunity for the University to showcase Sussex Choice and
overseas study opportunities to potentially benefit home student recruitment.
6. Key Risks

For all student groups: the need to improve league table position;

HEU Undergraduates: Russell Group competition - can we grow to target and keep high entry quality;

Overseas UG and PGT - in addition to perceptions of institutional ranking, risks include: the UK visa
system and costs (which may be worsened by current Immigration Bill: NHS costs, landlord vetting
etc.); possible slow-down in numbers of students from China and India studying in the UK; Global
economic /currency movements
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7. Recommendation
Senate is asked to CONSIDER this report.
Prof Clare Mackie, PVC (Teaching & Learning)
Marcus Williams, Director of Student Recruitment
Rob Evans, Head of Admissions
Richard Fairbank, Senior Planning Officer
Owen Richards, Academic Secretary
March 2014
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Appendix 1 Forecasting UK Higher Education Sector populations
For each student category of student (HEU/Overseas and Undergraduate/Postgraduate) and elven
year time series of Sector student full-time equivalents (FTEs) were extracted from HESA1. Figure 3
below shows actual FTEs (denoted by the solid lines) and a continuing trend for the Strategic Plan
period (dashed lines, based on the eleven years of actual data).
Figure 3. Sector FTEs to 2018/19 (trend analysis, solid line = actuals, dashed = forecast)
The latest published data (2012/13 was available in February 2014) shows a falling back in three of the
four categories in the last two three years. Basing trends on shorter time series would give different
forecasts so each of the four categories is looked at in greater detail and by making use of published
studies where available.
HEU Undergraduates. Demographic data for England forecasts a decline in 18-20 year olds until 2020,
followed by a rise up to and above the recent 2010 peak.2 Simply looking at demographic data does not
take account of increased participation rates (particularly from under-represented social groups) or
unfilled demand. Robbins Revisited: Bigger and Better Higher Education3 estimates a 4% growth in
English UG entrants between 2011/12 and 2020/21 after taking account of the declining 18-20 year old
population during that period, social demographic changes and unmet demand which could be
accommodated following the removal of the Student Number Control. While the demographic and
1
Higher Education Statistics Agency’s HE Information Database for Institutions, www.heidi.ac.uk (subscription only)
Demand for Higher Education Supply to 2029 (Higher Education Policy Institute, Dec 2008, www.hepi.ac.uk)
3
Rt Hon David Willetts MP, 21 October 2013, www.smf.co.uk/research/category-two/robbins-revisited/, p31.
2
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participation data applies to English students they form by far the largest cohort of HEU undergraduates
and assuming overall HEU growth mirrors that for English students is not considered distorting. If
anything it may lead to an understatement of the sector HEU undergraduate total as there are not the
same demographic trends in the EU and since 2008/09 sector EU Undergraduate FTEs have increased
on average 3% per annum compared to 0.5% for UK. Four percent growth from 2011/12 to 2020/21
takes the HEU Undergraduate population to just over 1.5 million FTEs. Movements in the intervening
years are not specified, nor whether the sharp fall in 2012/13 was anticipated. To achieve 1.5 million
FTEs in 2020/21 annual increases of about 15,000 FTEs have been assumed. HM Treasury4 has based
calculations on the cost of removing the Student Number Control as ‘allowing 60,000 young people a
year who have the grades to enter higher education but cannot currently secure a place’, with half that
number made available within SNC in 2014/15. HEPI5 point out that this is double the level of untapped
demand identified in the Browne Review of 2010.
Figure 4 shows four possible outcomes for Sector HEU UGs: an eleven year trend from 2002/03, a five
year trend from 2008/09, mirroring the demographic decline (which then reverses) and 4% steady
growth from 2011/12 to 2020/21 taking account of increased participation. It is proposed to use the
latter for modelling purposes.
Figure 4. Sector HEU Undergraduate FTE forecasts
HEU Postgraduates. Sector HEU Postgraduate FTEs have declined since 2009/10 following a period of
steady if generally unspectacular growth (see figure 5). There are likely to be several conflicting factors
that will influence future recruitment. These relate to the number of students getting a first degree (in turn
influenced by demographics/participation), the state of the jobs market and issues around student funding.
The effect of students graduating with large debts might dampen demand for PG courses but this could be
offset by the need to have a further qualification to enhance employment prospects. Increasing numbers
of attractive scholarship packages are likely to be available but with a more buoyant jobs market further
study might be a less attractive short term prospect. Some of these factors will offset each other and the
overall effect is unknown and perhaps best disregarded. It is proposed that for modelling purposes a level
of growth matching that for HEU Undergraduates is assumed. This might be unduly pessimistic as it
assumes that only part of the 10,000 FTE fall from 2011/12 will be recovered by 2018/19 despite there
being 4% more potential undergraduates to feed into PG courses.
4
5
HM Treasury Autumn Statement 2013, Dec 2013, www.gov.uk, p54.
Unfinished Business?: Higher education legislation (HEPI, Feb 2014, www.hepi.ac.uk), pp4-5
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Figure 5. Sector HEU Postgraduate FTE forecasts
Overseas Undergraduates. Sector FTEs have grown steadily throughout the period with the more
rapid growth of recent years slightly curtailed in 2012/13. There is no reason to suppose that similar
growth will not continue and in July 2013 International Education Strategy – Global Growth and
Prosperity forecast overall growth in international students of 15-20% over the next 5 years6. This was
based on average growth over the past three years (2008/09-2011/12) of 3.7% per annum and was
stated to fall midway between reports from HEFCE and the British Council. The growth forecast by
BIS is not differentiated between UG and PG or non-EU and other EU, but HESA data for the same
period shows non-EU Overseas Undergraduate FTEs increasing more than other EU and at twice the
rate of Postgraduates. It is most likely that this higher level of growth will continue.
Figure 6 shows forecasts based on 11 and 5 year trends and overall growth of 15% and 20%. The
latter reflect the ranges forecast by BIS for international students. The lower (longer) trend and the
20% growth lines are very similar. It is proposed that the latter, equivalent to 4% per annum, is used
for modelling purposes.
Figure 6. Sector Overseas Undergraduate FTE forecasts
Page 35 of International Education Strategy – Global Growth and Prosperity. BIS, July 2013.
6
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Overseas Postgraduates. The steady growth to 2010/11 has since been curtailed, unlike the
situation for Overseas Undergraduates. It is therefore likely that BIS’s overseas growth forecasts
will not apply evenly to both category of students and to be consistent with recent HESA FTEs
growth ranges of 10% and 15% have been used. Figure 7 shows forecasts based on 11 and 5
year trends and 10% and 15% growth (2% and 3% per annum). It is proposed to assume the
lower (2% growth per annum) for forecasting purposes.
Figure 7. Sector Overseas Postgraduate FTE forecasts
Had higher (or lower) estimates of Sector FTEs been made then a smaller (or higher) market share
would be required to meet Strategic Plan targets. The Sector estimates used here are considered to be
prudent. However using the highest rather than lowest Overseas PG forecast would only reduce market
share from this category of students required to meet Strategic Plan target from 1.7% to 1.6%.
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