CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ANTHROPOENE ERA
A SECOND GREAT DIVIDE
Antarctic Ice core data show that every 100,000 years (for the last 800,000 years) massive amounts
of carbon dioxide and methane have surged into the atmosphere, (many times more than currently
being generated by burning fossil fuels). (1) These cycles are concurrent with the elliptical orbit of the
earth around the sun during which the earth cycles some 3 million miles closer to the sun. A 6.8%
increase in the intensity of radiation hitting the earth causes the warming and ends an Ice Age. As
glaciers melt, oceans rise about 400 feet and warm rainy weather results in the emergence of rudimentary civilizations. The existing few humans on Earth were not burning fossil duels.
Greenhouse gases are not the driver of this warming. These gases only begin to boil
out long after solar heating has warmed the oceans. (Solar energy hitting the earth
each hour is greater than all the energy used in the world in a year). (2)
When the earth then cycles back away from the sun into the next ice age, the greenhouse gasses redissolve into the oceans. Antarctic ice sheets again expand causing oceans levels to fall. Rudimentary
civilizations that have incubated are always lost. The most recent of these warming intervals ended
about 6,200 years ago and the earth should now be deep into another ice age.
(We should not be here).
However, quite fortuitously, about 5,500 years ago Antarctic Ice Core and many other redundant
sources of data reveal that a new 500 year pattern of warming and cooling abruptly appeared, which
reversed descent into another ice age. (3)
All the great civilizations of history have since emerged in the warming stages of
each 500 year cycle and then collapsed into serious droughts and starvation in the
cooling stages (Figure I)
FIGURE I
CIVILIZATION
Babylonian Empire
Greek Empire
Roman Empire
Dark Ages (Warming aborted)
Medieval Period
Renaissance Period
Current Period
PEAKING PERIOD
1000 BCE
500 BCE
1 CE
5 CE
1,000 CE
1,500 CE
2,000 CE
The 500 CE warming period was aborted by coincidence with a 2,000 year cooling cycle that collapsed
the Roman Empire and ushered in the Dark Ages. Only the Western Mesopotamian civilization then
survived to now dominate the Free World. The 2,000 year cooling cycle had also previously terminated
-2—
the great Chinese and Egyptian dynasties 4,200 years ago. It had also occurred 8.200, 6,200 4,200 and
2,200 years ago (200 C.E.), each time with devastating effects. (4) (It is next due again in about 180 years
in 2,200 CE (as apparently noted in the ancient Mayan calendar)
The earth is now in the 10th of these 500 year cycles, starting 5,000 years ago. Each one is redundantly
documented in peer reviewed journals from Ice core data taken from Antarctic and Greenland Ice Caps,
from sediments in the Sargasso Sea, from stalagmites in caves around the world, from Oxygen isotope
ratios and from carbon dating of archeological artifacts. They all tell the same story.
FIGURE II
INCREMENTAL ADVANCES IN CIVILIZATION (5)
Most remarkably, for the first time in history, the cooling stages in these repeating
cycles have been short enough that advances made in one warming stage were able
to be recaptured and further advanced in the next, resulting in an intermittent, but
cumulative rise of an advanced civilization on an insignificant rock in a vast galactic
universe. (Figure II)
Unfortunately, each cooling stage has been accompanied by severe droughts and starvation (5) and this
syndrome is now again repeating. Water shortages and serious droughts are now deepening on every
continent.
THE ANTHROPOCENE EPOCH
Since the late 1990’s, the sunspots have disappeared, global warming has ceased, tropical oceans have
cooled about 4.8 F, the magnetic field of the sun (which controls the intensity of solar radiation hitting
the earth) (6) has precipitously collapsed and only now it is becoming clear that this 500 year pattern
-3of warming and cooling that began about 5,500 years resulted from this shift in the magnetic field of
the Sun. (See Figure III below) Galileo first recognized this phenomenon about 500 years ago in 1631,
when Sunspots disappeared (8) concurrent with the appearance of severe droughts as the earth was
descending into a “Little Ice Age,” (now again repeating).
During that “Little Ice Age”, the Baltic Ocean, the Venetian Canals and the Thames all froze over, Swiss
villages were crushed by descending glaciers and it was possible to walk across the ice from Manhattan
to Staten Island. About a third of world populations were lost in starvation and disease. Now 500 years
later, this syndrome is also disrupting weather patterns and increasing their intensity. Serious droughts
and increased frequency of earthquakes also have appeared on every continent.
FIGURE III
COLLAPSE OF THE SUN’S MAGNEIC FIELD (4)
Five hundred years ago in the Renaissance period, the earth’s population was about 500,000 (now seven
billion. About 80% of world populations still live in under developed agrarian countries. Water and food
shortages now occurring on every continent may result in mass migrations and tribal chaos in these
-4developing countries. Fortunately, advanced food technology, water desalination and waste water
recycle systems already developed can be scaled up to mitigate the problem, but a much accelerated
effort will be necessary, requiring strong U.S leadership.
SUMMARY, THE COMING ERA
The world is currently in turmoil, connected in real time by some seven billion cell phones. This historic
phenomenon has triggered the “Arab Spring Syndrome,” which has only begun and will progressively
disrupt many authoritarian regimes over the next decade or two. Incipient droughts appearing on every
continent will deepen, requiring free world intervention to mitigate widespread hunger in its seven
billion people to feed.
On the positive side, the combination of the Internet, computers and those seven billion
cell phones have changed world civilizations. Capital and information now flow with the
speed of light to every corner of the Earth, by-passing bureaucratic, regulatory, language
and cultural barriers.
Digital Education is already bringing advanced curricula (FREE) to millions of people in every
developing country (soon billions), initiating perhaps the greatest advance in education since
invention of the printing press in 1456. About 90% of all scientific knowledge has been generated over just the last two decades (7), enabling the accelerated economic development of
many emerging countries, and potentially the accelerated renewal of others. It could be the best
of times.
Rescue is robbery however.. Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. But teach him to fish....The U.S. as
the un-sought leader of the Free-World has the “unsought” responsibility (in its own enlightened selfinterest), to mitigate serious consequences of global restructure, impending food shortages and other
issues of rapid change and to help accelerate the internal economic development of all emerging
countries Remarkably successful models for doing this have been developed. (7)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------REFERENCES
(1) Ice Core Data; D.R MacAyeal, Professor of Physics, University of Chicago, Pesonal
Communication, Original Data; A.V Federof, P.S. Denkins et al, “”The Pliocene Paradox,”
Science, Vol 312, June 8, 1996, pp 1485-9. “Sargasso Sea Data.” j. Vousel et al, Orbital and
Millenial Antarctiv Variability Over the Last 800,000 Years, Science Vo; 317, August 10,
2007.
(2) Earth’s Radiant Energy; Science.Vol3, No 2, (2011 pp 1603-13; Laurence Hecht, “Studies
Show Weakening Sun, Possible New Ice Age;” Science. June 24, 2011, pp 48-9.
-5(3) Magnetic Field of the Sun; Gregory F.Forget; “Earth on the Brink of an Ice Sage” PravdaRu/Science/Earth/11/01/2009.106922-earth-ice-age. Slumping Sun;
http:www.//wettsupwhthat.com/1012/09/13/the_sun_is_still_slipping.
(4) Google, 2000 Year Cooling Cycles.
(5) Intermittent rise of civilization; Charles Murray, “Human Accomplishments” (2003) Harper
Collins Publisher, pp 351.
(6) Slumping Sun; http:ww.com.wettsupwhthat.com/1012/09/13/the sun is still slipping;
(7) The International Program for Acceleration of Economic Development. D. Bruce Merrifield;
“A Modern Marshall Plan for Developing Economies.” J. Business Venturing, Vol.6 No. 2 pp
231.
_______________________________________________________________
Hon. D. Bruce Merrifield, PhD
Former Undersecretary of Commerce, Technology and Economic
Affairs, Reagan Administration; Chaired Professor of Management,
for Entrepreneurship, Emeritus, Wharton School of Business, University
of Pennsylvania.