CHAPTER 9 5. Suppose an initially flat term structure with all interest rates equal to 6 percent. Compute the price change for a one-year par bond if the interest rate increases by 2 percent. Then compute the price change on a perpetual par bond if the interest rate on this bond increases by 1 percent. Compute the Durations of each bond. Which bond has a greater percentage price change and why? 1-Year Par Bond: P0 C + Par 1 + R 0,1 100 = 6 + 100 1.06 Spot Rate rises to 8% P1 = 6 + 100 = 98.15 1.08 DUR = 1 % change = 1.85% Perpetual Bond: P0 = C R 100 = 6 0.06 Spot Rate rises to 7% P1 = 6 = 85.71 0.07 DUR = 1 + y 1.06 = = 17.67 y 0.06 % change = 14.29% 6. Suppose the one-period spot interest rate is 4 percent and the forward interest rate is 8 percent. Compute the holding period return over the next period for a two-period zerocoupon bond for each of the following values for next period’s spot interest rate: 5 percent, 8 percent, 12 percent. R0,1 = 4% P0 = Par (1 + R 0,1)(1 + f 0,2) P1 = Par 1 + R 0,1 f0,2 = 8% HPR = P1 P0 P0 P0 = 100 = 89.03 (1.04)(1.0 8) R1,1 = 5%: P1 = 100 = 95.24 1.05 HPR = 95.24 89.03 = 6.97% 89.03 R1,1 = 8%: P1 = 100 = 92.59 1.08 HPR = 92.59 - 89.03 = 4% 89.03 R1,1 = 12%: P1 = 100 = 89.29 1.12 HPR = 89.29 - 89.03 = .29% 89.03 7. You observe the following term structure. What term structure theories are consistent with it? Maturity (Years) 1 2 3 4 Spot Rate 0.12 0.14 0.05 0.04 f0,2: (1.14)2 = (1.12)(1 + f0,2) f0,2 = 16.04% f0,3: (1.05)3 = (1.14)2(1 + f0,3) f0,3 = -10.92% f0,4: (1.04)4 = (1.05)3(1 + f0,4) f0,4 = 1.06% No term structure theories have negative forward rates. 8. Assume the combined theory explains the term structure. The one-period spot rate is 5 percent, the expected spot rate next period is 7 percent and the liquidity premium is 2 percent. Compute the forward interest rate. R0,1 = 5% E(R1,1) = 7% L = 2% f0,2 = 7% + 2% = 9% 9. Suppose that we observe the following prices on strips with $100 par values: S1 = $97.09; S2 = $92.46; S3 = $86.38; S4 = $79.21. Which term structure theories are consistent with these strips prices? par = 100 S1 = 97.09 S1 = 100 1 + R 0,1 S2 = 92.46 f 0,2 = R 0,1 = 3% S1 1 = 5% S2 S3 = 86.38 f 0,3 = S2 1 = 7.04% S3 S4 = 79.21 f 0,4 = S3 1 = 9.05% S4 All of the theories are consistent with these strip prices because the forward rates are increasing. 10. Suppose that we observe the following prices on strips with $100 par values: S1 = $97.09; S2 = $92.46; S3 = $86.38; S4 = $85.48. Which term structure theories are consistent with these strips prices? S1 = 97.09 S1 = 100 1 + R 0,1 R 0,1 = 3% S2 = 92.46 f 0,2 = S1 1 f 0,2 = 5% S2 S3 = 86.38 f 0,3 = S2 1 f 0,3 = 7.04% S3 S4 = 85.48 f 0,4 = S3 1 f 0,4 = 1.05% S4 Segmented markets, expectations hypothesis, combined theory. 11. Suppose that the combined theory explains the term structure of interest rates. The current one-period spot interest rate is 4.50%. The market expects interest rates next period to increase by x%. There is a liquidity premium of 1.5%. The two-period spot interest rate is current 5.74%. What is the expected increase in the spot interest rate over the next period? (1 R 0, 2 ) 2 (1 R 0,1 )(1 f 0, 2 ) (1.0574) 2 (1.0450)(1.0450 x 0.015) (1.0574) 2 1.06 x 1.0450 (1.0574) 2 x 1.06 1.0540 x 0.009947 0.99% 12. Suppose that we observe the following prices on strips with $100 par values. S1 = $93.46; S2 = $82.64; S3 = $79.38; S4 = $79.21. This is consistent with which term structure theories? 1 + R0,1 = 100 , R0,1 = 6.9976% ≈ 7.00% 93.46 1 + f0,2 = 93.46 , f0,2 = 13.09% 82.64 1 + f0,3 = 82.64 , f0,3 = 4.1068% ≈ 4.11% 79.38 1 + f0,4 = 79.38 , f0,4 = 0.2146% ≈ 0.21% 79.21 Humped term structure, expectations hypothesis, combined theory, segmented markets.