Northwest Climate Science Digest: Science and Learning Opportunities Combined
August 2015 Issue
The Northwest Climate Science Digest is a monthly newsletter jointly produced by the
Northwest Climate Science Center and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation
Cooperative aimed at helping you stay informed about climate change science and upcoming
events and training opportunities relevant to your conservation work. Feel free to share this
information within your organization and networks, and please note the role the NW CSC
and NPLCC played in providing this service. Do you have a published article or upcoming
opportunity that you would like to share? Please send it our way to nwcsc@uw.edu. Many
thanks to those who have provided material for this edition, particularly the Pacific
Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, the Climate Impacts Group and the
Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change and Water News.
Subscribe to the NW CSC’s e-mail update list to receive periodic updates on Northwest
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SCIENCE: Recent climate change-relevant publications, special reports and science
resources.
UPCOMING EVENTS: Upcoming climate change-relevant webinars, workshops,
conferences, list servers and other learning opportunities.
PREVIOUS ISSUES: An archive of previous Northwest Climate Change Digest issues
developed by Region 1 of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Restored, open habitat leads to record run of Coho from Goldsborough Creek
Marine travellers best able to adapt to warming waters
Taking stock of the assisted migration debate
Maintaining species by translocating them to locations where climate is suitable
Feasibility of Reintroducing Native Fish: Case of Bull Trout
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
New Study on Sea Level Rise Points to Much Higher Projections Than Before
Ocean acidification may cause dramatic changes to phytoplankton
Aquatic Resources/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Using Air Temperature to Model Stream Warming
Projecting precipitation throughout the 21st century over North America
Groundwater slowly being depleted in the United States
Commentary on Heightened Risk of Drought due to Climate Change
Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western United States
Arid Ecosystems
How Projections for Drier Terrestrial Areas Vary Between Climate Models
Land Use
Impact of climate change and land use changes on national parks
Forests
Can forests rebound from severe drought
Fire
Dry Days Bring Ferocious Start to Fire Season
Area burned in the western United States unaffected by recent mountain pine beetle
outbreaks
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Building Resilience in Vulnerable Communities
Coastal Alaska natives face high shoreline erosion
Preserving Tribal Water Rights in the West
Taking Action
State Has Legal Obligation to Protect Climate
New National Research Council fast-track study on extreme weather events
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
NASA: California “Rain Debt” Equal to Average Full Year of Precipitation
State of the Climate Report for 2014 Released
Weather becoming more conducive to wildfires
Climate Prediction Center Releases New Report on El Nino
Special Reports/ Announcements
$2 Million Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE Announced
Expanded West Coast Guide to Olympia Oyster Restoration and Conservation
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Restored, open habitat leads to record run of Coho from Goldsborough Creek: Due to
extensive dam removal and habitat restoration, this year has brought record runs of juvenile
Coho salmon in Goldsborough Creek. The previous record was 61,000 Coho, and this year
113,000 juveniles were counted. This was a major success; fifteen years ago, the US Army
Corps of Engineers removed a dam on Goldsborough, and since then, the Squaxin Island
Tribe has worked closely with other partners to improve the habitat for fish. The dam
removal was significant, as it opened up access to wetlands. This is essential for the lifecycle
of Coho salmon, which spend an additional year in freshwater before going out to sea
(unlike most species of salmon). According to Andy Whitener, natural resources director for
the Squaxin Island Tribe, this year’s record points to the importance of habitat for salmon,
and to the potential for habitat restoration projects to lead to dramatic improvements.
http://nwifc.org/2015/07/recordgoldsborough/?utm_source=Eclips&utm_campaign=d7863d7187E_clips_July_31_20157_31_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c909fc207ad7863d7187-388501765
Marine travellers best able to adapt to warming waters: Researchers at the University of
Southampton and an international team of biodiversity experts found that marine species
with smaller migration ranges are at high risk due to climate change, while marine species
with large migration ranges face smaller risks due to being more adaptable. University of
British Columbia biodiversity research Jennifer Sunday, lead author of the study, showed
how marine species with higher adult mobility demonstrated the ability to adapt to warming
oceans by migrating to cooler waters. These same species are typically habitat generalists and
were at equilibrium with their environments, allowing them to respond to warming
temperatures by shifting their migration patterns. The study site was located off of
Australia’s east coast, where the ocean has been warming at four times the global average
rate. Marine species have been observed further south than ever before as a result of this.
Species observed included the tiger shark, short-tail stingray and barren-forming urchin,
along with a number of notoriously invasive omnivore fish species.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150720092438.htm?utm_source=feedburn
er&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fplants_animals+%28
Plants+%26+Animals+News+--+ScienceDaily%29
Sunday, J.M; Pecl, G.T.; Frusher, S.; Hobday, A.J.; Hill, N.; Holbrook, N.J.; Edgar, G.J.;
Stuart-Smith, R.; Barrett, N.; Wernberg, T.; Watson, R.A.; Smale, D.A.; Fulton, E.A.;
Slawinski, D.; Feng, M.; Radford, B.T.; Thompson, P.A.; Bates, A.E. 2015. Species traits and
climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot. Ecology
Letters. Doi: 10.1111/ele.12474
Taking stock of the assisted migration debate: A study from 2011 evaluates the
academic and policy conversations around assisted migration for species most at risk from
climate change impacts. Assisted migration involves the intentional relocation of species
outside of their historic ranges of migration in order to mitigate losses of biodiversity that
have already occurred or are anticipated to occur. The authors conducted a meta-analysis of
the literature on assisted migration and found a general lack of biophysical research on the
topic. For the debate to be well informed, or for proposed policies to be actionable, there
must be a sufficient number of case studies and more general scientific studies that look at
the potential impacts of migration on species behavior and biodiversity. The authors
recommended further research as well as more extensive academic and policy conversations
on the topic.
Hewitt, N., Klenk, N, Smith, A.L., Bazely, D.R., Yan, N., Wood, S., MacLellan, J.I., LipsigMumme, C., Henriques, I. 2011. Taking stock of the assisted migration debate. Biological
Conservation. DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2011.04.031
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/232361203_Taking_stock_of_the_assisted_migrat
ion_debate
Maintaining species by translocating them to locations where climate is suitable:
University of York researcher Chris Thomas argues that the only viable way to deal with
species at high risk from climate impacts is to relocate them to other areas where the climate
is suitable. Many species are unable to relocate themselves for a variety of factors (slow
dispersal rates, unable to surmount human and natural obstacles, etc.), and these species
need to be intentionally relocated to areas where they can survive. For example, some
species are endemic to the summit of a particular mountain range, and as temperatures
warm, the temperature may no longer be cold enough for them to survive, thus they would
need to be relocated. Thomas argues that this is the most effective way to reduce the
extinction rates that are projected due to climate change impacts, thus it is currently the most
viable method of reducing biodiversity losses.
Thomas. 2011. Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate
past ecological communities. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26:216-221.
http://post.queensu.ca/~biol310/thomas%202011%20translocations.pdf
Feasibility of Reintroducing Native Fish: Case of Bull Trout: In contrast to the
previous article, this study shows how relocating threatened species can be problematic
without sufficient attention to feasibility prior to implementation. The authors develop a
feasibility framework that should be used to assess a relocation project prior to
implementing it. The framework has two basic components: the ability for new habitats to
support reintroduction and the potential for available donor populations in the new habitat
to support reintroduction. The authors then applied this framework to the reintroduction of
bull trout into the Clackamas River in Oregon.
Dunham J., Gallo, K., Shively D., Allen, C., Goehring, B. 2011. Assessing the feasibility of
native fish reintroductions: A framework applied to threatened bull trout. North American
Journal of Fisheries Management 31:106-111.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02755947.2011.559830
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
New Study on Sea Level Rise Points to Much Higher Projections Than Before: A
new study by acclaimed NASA climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues claims that sea
level rise will occur much more rapidly than forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Hansen and colleagues project a sea level rise of 5 – 9 meters in 50, 100 or
200 years if fossil fuel emissions continue on a ‘business-as-usual’ course (meaning that
emissions as they are now would continue in the future). The rate of sea level rise would be
accelerated by parts of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets melting, and this melting
would bring about a number of climate change ‘feedbacks’, which would in turn increase the
rate of melting. However, this study has generated considerable controversy and criticism.
Other prominent climate scientists, such as Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, have strongly criticized the study,
arguing that Hansen and colleagues made too many assumptions and extrapolations for the
study to be taken seriously. However, the IPCC has been criticized in the past for making
overly conservative projections, including for sea level rise. Greg Holland, also at NCAR,
argues that the actual amount of sea level rise that will occur is probably somewhere between
the amount projected by this study and the IPCC.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G.,
Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Velicogna, I., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P.,
Legrande, A.N., Bauer, M., Lo, K.-W. 2015. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms:
evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 degrees
C global warming is highly dangerous. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 20059-20179.
doi:10.5194/acpd-15-20059-2015
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energyenvironment/wp/2015/07/23/controversial-sea-level-rise-paper-is-now-published-online/
Ocean acidification may cause dramatic changes to phytoplankton: The uptake of
carbon dioxide in the oceans has resulted in a drop of the global average pH from 8.2 to 8.1.
By 2100, it is projected to drop further to around 7.8, which is significantly lower than any
pH levels seen anywhere in open ocean marine communities around the world. The authors
of this study show how ocean acidification by 2100 is projected to affect phytoplankton.
Phytoplankton species are projected to exhibit a wide range of responses: some will die out,
while others will flourish. Thus the balance of plankton species will be fundamentally altered.
Some species will even grow faster than previously, while others will be significantly harmed,
perhaps going extinct. Warming temperatures will also significantly affect the locations of
phytoplankton. Many species will shift toward the poles as the planet warms. However, the
most significant changes will occur from ocean acidification.
Dutkiewicz, S., Jeffrey Morris, J., Follows, M.J., Scott, J., Levitan, O., Dyhrman, S.T.,
Berman-Frank, I. 2015. Impact of ocean acidification on the structure of future
phytoplankton communities. Nature Climate Change. Doi: 10.1038/nclimate2722
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Using Air Temperature to Model Stream Warming: A new U.S. Forest Service Southern
Research Station study demonstrates how long-term historic air temperature data can be
used in conjunction with short-term stream temperature data to project future warming in
streams. Peter Caldwell, a research hydrologist at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, led
the study. Caldwell and his colleagues showed how only 18 months of stream temperature
observations could be used to explain variability in stream temperature for up to 37 years.
They used these findings to model historical stream temperatures at 61 sites in the
Southeastern United States from 1961 to 2010, and then used these models to project future
temperatures from 2011 through 2060. They found that stream temperatures had already
increased during the historical period, and those streams located in the Appalachian
ecoregion were predicted to be most vulnerable to climate change. These findings were seen
as a significant breakthrough, as before it was very difficult to project long-term climate
change impacts on stream temperature.
Caldwell, P., Segura, C., Gull, S., Sun, G., McNulty, S.G., Sandercock, M., Boggs J., James,
M. 2015. Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of
potential climate change impacts. Hydrological Processes 29, 2196-2211.
http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/compass/2015/01/06/the-future-of-streams-using-airtemperature-to-model-stream-warming/
Projecting precipitation throughout the 21st century over North America: In this new
study, high spatial resolution (12 km) simulations were performed using the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The purpose of the simulations was to explore
mean and extreme precipitation projections for the mid to late 21st century. Because of the
higher spatial resolution of the simulations, the study allowed for resolving precipitation in
ways that had not previously been possible (such as over mountain ranges). The authors
found that among 10 subregions they studied, the Pacific Northwest showed the greatest
increase in the number of days each year when extreme precipitation occurs. This was the
case for both emissions scenarios studied, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, but there was a higher
increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation for RCP 8.5.
Wang, J. and V.R. Kotamarthi 2015. High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of
precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America. Earth’s Future, 3,
doi:10.1002/2015EF000304.
Groundwater slowly being depleted in the United States: Between 1900 – 2008, the
volume of groundwater stored below the United States decreased by almost 1000 cubic
kilometers. The areas with the highest amount of storage depletion include the High Plains
aquifer the Mississippi Embayment section of the Gulf Coastal Plain aquifer system, and the
Central Valley in California. The rate of depletion has accelerated since 2000. Leonard
Konikow, the author of the study, introduces a new parameter for studying groundwater
depletion, ‘depletion intensity’, to understand how storage changes are occurring
geographically. He found that the Central Valley in California had the highest depletion
intensity. Groundwater depletion can have a wide range of harmful effects, including
reduced well yields, reduced base flow to springs, streams and other surface water bodies,
and loss of wetlands. It is also responsible for sea level rise, and Konikow found that
groundwater depletion in the United States could explain 1.4% of observed sea level rise that
occurred during the study period.
Konikow, L.F. 2015. Long-Term Groundwater Depletion in the United States. Groundwater
53, 1, 2-9.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gwat.12306/full
Commentary on Heightened Risk of Drought due to Climate Change: In this
commentary piece, Pacific Institute Director Peter Gleick and Pennsylvania State University
Meteorologist Michael Mann discuss the state of current literature on drought and climate
science. They discuss a new study published in PNAS by Diffenbaugh et al., which shows
accumulating evidence that climate change is influencing the frequency, magnitude and
duration of drought in California. An increasing number of dry years along with warm years
raise the risk of drought, despite the lack of a strong trend in precipitation. These results
point to the significance of warming temperatures to changing the availability of water and
increasing drought intensity. It is important to note, however, as the authors do, that this is
not uncontested. A number of recent studies (some of which focused on a lack of trend in
precipitation) concluded that a link between ocean temperatures and drought could not yet
be established. Part of the debate, however, has occurred because there are many ways in
which drought can be defined. A drought can be meteorological, hydrological, agricultural,
and/or socioeconomic. Other parts of the debate stem from attribution. Some studies argue
that low levels of precipitation cannot be tied to climate change, while others argue that
while this may be true, the low levels of precipitation are caused by an unusually strong
‘atmospheric ridge’ in the Western United States, which was most likely stronger due to
climate change.
Mann, M.E. and P.H. Gleick 2015. Climate change and California drought in the 21st
century. PNAS 112, 13, 3858-3859. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1503667112
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MannGleickPN
AS2015.pdf
Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western
United States: A new study suggests that elevation dependent warming may not be
occurring as is suggested by observational data. Observations from the mountain climate
station network in the Western United States suggest that some higher elevation areas are
warming faster than lower elevation areas. This study evaluates temperature observations
from the climate network sites and finds that the extreme warming observed at higher
elevations is a result of systematic artifacts and not climatic conditions. The authors find that
climate data that is widely used for model simulations propagate these temperature trends,
which impacts the ability for studies to accurately model climate change impacts in
mountainous parts of the Western US.
Oyler, J.W., Dobrowski, S.Z. Ballantyne, A.P., Klene, A.E., Running, S.W. 2015. Artificial
amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western United States.
Geophysical Research Letters 42, 153-161. doi:10.1002/2014GL062803.
Arid Ecosystems
How Projections for Drier Terrestrial Areas Vary Between Climate Models: The
degree of aridity of a terrestrial climate is typically evaluated by using the relative magnitudes
of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). This study uses an aridity index
of P/PET and looks at how this index varies in 16 different global climate models from
CMIP5. The authors find that the index agrees between climate models in most of Eurasia
and North Africa, but disagree dramatically in large areas of North America, Sub-Saharan
Africa and South Asia. The same areas can be represented as semiarid-to-arid or quite
humid, depending on the climate model. This is in contrast to the climate adage “wet areas
get wetter, dry areas get drier”.
Scheff, J. and D.M.W. Frierson. 2015. Terrestrial aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse
Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 28. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-1400480.1
Land Use
Impact of climate change and land use changes on national parks: A new study looks
at the impact of air quality between the present and a 2050 future period and quantifies
effects of air quality projections on national parks and wilderness areas. The authors find
that if emissions occur as projected in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, air quality will improve
significantly across the US. However, this improvement will occur unevenly. In the western
US, national parks such as Yellowstone may not achieve target visibility conditions.
Moreover, climate-driven fires may be a significant issue for air quality, and particularly
visibility, for parks such as Crater Lake National Park in Oregon. Results suggest that the US
National Park Service may need to develop air quality management plans to further mitigate
air pollution.
Martin, M.V., Heald, C.L., Lamarque, J.-F., Tilmes, S., Emmons, L.K., Schichtel, B.A. 2015.
How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the
United States: a focus on effects at national parks. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 15, 2805-2823.
doi:10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015
Forests
Can forests rebound from severe drought: A new study questions whether or not forests
can recover from extended drought periods. The study suggests that trees can take years to
go back to normal growth after experiencing a drought. Lead author William Anderegg
found that trees took an average of two to four years to recover from drought, with two
exceptions: trees in California and the Mediterranean actually grow more quickly after a
drought. This could be explained by the dominance of oak forests in these regions. Instances
of this have already occurred, and the Western US has been particularly hard hit in terms of
tree mortality, according to Anderegg. Restoring the natural density of trees could be an
important step in the right direction for forests in the Western US.
Anderegg, W.R.L., Schwalm, C., Biondi, F., Camarero, J.J., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K.,
Shaw, J.D., Shevliakova, E., Williams, A.P., Wolf, A., Ziaco, E., Pacala, S. 2015. Pervasive
drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models. Science
349, no. 6247, 528-532. DOI: 10.1126/science.aab1833
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2015/0730/Can-forests-rebound-from-severe-drought
Fire
Dry Days Bring Ferocious Start to Fire Season: Record-breaking drought this summer
has set off a number of expensive wildfires this summer across the Western United States.
Although wildfires used to be predominantly confined to range lands, this summer has
brought wildfires even in the rain forests of the Olympic Peninsula, which is one of the
wettest regions of the world. The drought has penetrated as far north as Alaska, where 399
fires burned in June, which is twice the number recorded in 2004, the state’s worst recorded
fire year. Previously, fires in Alaska had burned tundra, but this year fires destroyed or
damaged hundreds of homes. Projections of the nationwide cost of fighting this year’s
wildfires are around $2.1 billion. In the Pacific Northwest, recent fires in and near Walla
Walla, WA and Wenatchee, WA have already devastated homes and crops. With the current
El Nino projections, bleak prospects are ahead – drier temperatures for most of the Pacific
Northwest.
http://nyti.ms/1JY98sR
Area burned in the western United States unaffected by recent mountain pine beetle
outbreaks: Mountain pine beetles have been a serious scourge in the Western US, leading to
the death of pine trees across 71,000 cubic kilometers of forestland since the mid-1990s. As
a result, it has been widely perceived that an abundance of dead fuels from the death of the
pine trees might exacerbate fire behavior and lead to a wider area being burned. The authors
of the study examined the effects of beetle outbreaks during the three peak years of wildfire
activity since 2002 in the Western US and found that the effect was negligible. Although
both fires and beetle outbreaks have increased due to warming temperatures, the occurrence
of one does not seem to reinforce occurrence of the other.
Hart, S.J., Schoennagel, T., Veblen, T.T., Chapman, T.B. 2015. Area burned in the western
United States is unaffected by recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks. PNAS 112, 14, 43754380.
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Building Resilience in Vulnerable Communities: The White House is releasing a
progress report that highlights some of the actions taken by the Administration to support
the Task Force’s recommendations. The Task Force in question is the State, Local, and
Tribal Leaders Task Force on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, which was established in
2013 as part of the Climate Action Plan. Some of these actions include: 1) the Bureau of
Indian Affairs is announcing $11.8 million in Tribal Climate Preparedness Grants to support
tribes in preparing for climate change impacts, 2) increasing energy security in Native
American tribes, 3) hosting a webinar series through the Minorities in Energy initiative to
discuss regional impacts of climate change on minority and tribal communities.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/Press_Releases/July_09_2015
Coastal Alaska natives face high shoreline erosion: Alaska is experiencing one of the
highest rates of shoreline erosion in the world, according to a recent USGS study. More than
a yard of coast is being washed off from the coast every year, and in extreme cases, nearly 30
yards of coast has already disappeared. Erosion is threatening Native Alaskan villages and
large tracts of both Native Alaskan and federally managed land. According to a 2009 report,
86% of Alaskan native villages are suffering from erosion and flooding. There is talk of
relocating some of these villages to safer areas. Coastal erosion in Alaska is due to a number
of factors, including loss of Arctic sea ice, sea level rise and warming ocean temperature.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/02/coastalalaska-natives-face-some-of-the-highest-shoreline-erosion-in-the-world/
Gibbs, A.E. and Richmond, B.M. 2015. National assessment of shoreline change –
Historical shoreline change along the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy
Cape: U.S. Geological Survey Open-Fire Report 2015-1048.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151048
Preserving Tribal Water Rights in the West: The July 2015 of the American Water
Resources Association’s ‘Water Resources IMPACT’ series focuses on water resources issues
facing Native Americans. It highlights the issue of preserving water rights for tribes as water
shortages grow in Western river basins and discusses the hydrologic impacts of climate
change on Native American water rights. According to First Peoples Worldwide, water rights
are the fastest growing risk for indigenous peoples around the world, particularly in waterstressed areas.
First Peoples and Water: Water Resource Issues for Native Americans, 2015, American
Water Resources Association Water Resources IMPACT 17, 4, 1-36.
http://www.awra.org/tools/members/Impact_Editions/1507impact.pdf
Taking Action
State Has Legal Obligation to Protect Climate: In March of 2015, a group of lawyers,
professors and judges from around the world released the Oslo Principles on Global Climate
Change Obligations, which stated that an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas
emissions was not necessary to compel governments to reduce emissions. Instead,
governments are required to do so based on existing human rights and a combination of
environmental and tort laws, and a failure to enact such laws will cause serious harm to
citizens and the earth. This was the precursor to last month’s order, when King County
Superior Court Judge Hollis Hill ordered the Washington Department of Ecology to
reconsider a petition that was filed in 2014. The petition called for a reduction in carbon
dioxide emissions to ‘protect the climate by considering the best available science when
setting emission reduction goals’. In Washington, the state’s Clean Air Act is the primary
legal vehicle for enforcing air quality.
http://registerguard.com/rg/opinion/33300412-78/teaching-old-laws-new-tricks-onclimate-front.html.csp
New National Research Council fast-track study on extreme weather events: The
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the National Research Council has
announced a new fast-track study on extreme weather events. Specifically, the study
examines attributing extreme weather events to anthropogenic induced climate change
versus natural variability.
http://dels.nas.edu/Study-In-Progress/Extreme-Weather-Events-Climate-Change/AUTO6-73-33-J
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
NASA: California “Rain Debt” Equal to Average Full Year of Precipitation: A new
NASA study concluded that California has accumulated a debt of around 20 inches of
precipitation from 2012 through 2015. This is approximately the amount of precipitation
that typically falls in the state in a given year. Between 20-50 percent of California’s
precipitation comes from atmospheric rivers, which move over the Pacific Ocean and are
responsible for precipitation falling in others of the West Coast as well. The study authors
attribute the majority of the precipitation debt to a high-pressure system in the atmosphere
over the eastern Pacific Ocean that has prevented the formation of atmospheric rivers since
2011.
http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/california-rain-debt-equal-to-average-full-year-ofprecipitation
Savtchenko, A.K., Huffman, A., Vollmer B. 2015. Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in
California Using TRMM and MERRA data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
10.1002/2015JD023573
State of the Climate Report for 2014 Released: The American Meteorological Society has
released its State of the Climate Report for 2014. Key findings from the report include: 1)
greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, reaching historic high values; 2) 2014 was
the warmest year on record; 3) the tropical Pacific Ocean is moving toward El Nino
Southern Oscillation conditions; 4) sea surface temperatures reached a record high; 5) global
average sea level rose to a record high; 6) sea ice extent in the Antarctic reached a record
high (that is not a typo!); 7) the number of tropical cyclones was well above the historical
yearly average.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/071615-international-report-confirms-2014was-earths-warmest-year-on-record.html
For the full report: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2014.php
Weather becoming more conducive to wildfires: A new study argues that fire risks across
the planet are rising as a result of climate change. Wildfire risk may be partially due to a
decreasing ability of land and vegetation to extract carbon from the atmosphere and thus
partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, wildfires are acting as a positive
feedback – in other words, fires are getting worse because of climate change, while also
making climate change worse. Matt Jolly, lead author of the study and a researcher with the
U.S. Forest Service’s Fire Sciences Laboratory in Missoula, Montana, found that the duration
of weather most conducive to fires has increased by 18.7% between 1979 to 2013. Jolly also
found that the area burned increased as well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/15/wildfirerisks-are-rising-due-to-climate-change-which-may-be-worsening-climate-change/
Jolly, W.M., Cochrane, M.A., Freeborn, P.H., Holden, Z.A., Brown, T.J., Williamson, G.J.,
Bowman, D.M.J.S. 2015. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to
2013. Nature Communications 6, 7537. doi:10.1038/ncomms8537
Climate Prediction Center Releases New Report on El Nino: The Climate Prediction
Center has released a new report on the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The report issues an
‘El Nino Advisory’, stating ‘El Nino conditions are present’, ‘Positive equatorial sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean’ and that ‘There is a
greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter
2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.”
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolutionstatus-fcsts-web.pdf
Special Reports/Announcements
$2 Million Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE Announced: Sunburst Sensors, a
team of chemists and engineers from Montana, won the $2 million dollar Wendy Schmidt
Ocean Health XPRIZE, a global competition that aims to incentivize breakthroughs in pH
sensor technology in order to measure the acidification of oceans. Sunburst Sensors is a
small business in Missoula, Montana that develops chemical sensors for marine and
freshwater applications. To win the prize, they developed two new breakthrough sensors a
spectrophotometric process that uses a sample of ocean water, mixes it with purified dyes,
and then shines a laser on the water to determine the pH level. The sensor demonstrated
accuracy in both coastal and deep-ocean environments up to a depth of 3,000 meters.
http://oceanhealth.xprize.org/press-release/montana-team-takes-home-both-top-prizes-2million-wendy-schmidt-ocean
Expanded West Coast Guide to Olympia Oyster Restoration and Conservation:
NOAA and a number of other organizations have released a new guide on oyster
populations and restoration along the West Coast. The guide covers the entire geographic
range of the Olympia oyster, from Baja California to British Columbia. It discusses
important environmental conditions that affect the Olympia oyster and identifies areas at
risk due to low population sizes or unreliable recruitment. The most common stressors were
sedimentation and predation.
Full report: http://www.sfbaysubtidal.org/OYSTERGUIDE-FULL-LORES.pdf
UPCOMING EVENTS
8/9-8/14 – Conference, Baltimore, MD. Ecological Society of America Annual
Meeting
8/10-8/14 - Conference, Spokane, WA. 2nd Annual National Joint Tribal Emergency
Management Conference
8/11 11am (Pacific) – Webinar. Habitat Exchange—A market-based conservation
program for greater sage-grouse
8/11-8/13 – Conference, Reno, NV. Native American Fish and Wildlife Society
Southwest Regional Conference
8/13 10am (Pacific) –Webinar. OneNOAA Series: MPA Performance - Linking
Governance to Ecological Outcomes
8/16-8/20 – Conference, Portland, OR. American Fisheries Society 145th Annual
Meeting
8/16-8/21 – Eatonville, WA. Northwest Climate Science Center Climate Boot Camp
2015
8/17-8/20 – Conference, St. Paul, Minnesota. Tribal Lands and Environmental
Forum
8/21 – Workshop, Portland, OR. Beaver Restoration Workshop
8/21 1-2pm (Pacific), Webinar. August 2015 NWS Alaska Climate Forecast Briefing
8/24-8/25 – Conference, Sacramento, CA. California Climate Change Symposium
8/26 10am (Pacific) – Webinar. Tools to Plan for Hazards Resilience and Climate
Change by Lauren Long and David Betenbaugh of NOAA
8/29 10am (Pacific) – Call, PNW Tribal Climate Change Network Call (to join the
Network email list, email Kathy Lynn at mailto:kathy@uoregon.edu)
11/2-11/3 - Conference, Sacramento, CA. 2015 Southwest Climate Summit
11/4-11/5 – Conference, Coeur d'Alene, ID. Sixth Annual Northwest Climate
Conference http://pnwclimateconference.org
11/8-11/12 – Conference, Portland, OR. CERF 23rd Biennial Conference
11/12-11/13 – Conference, Cambridge, MA. 2015 Rising Seas Summit
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