Local Government and Firm Innovation in China: The Case of the Clean Energy Sector Margaret Pearson, University of Maryland, Department of Government and Politics mpearson@umd.edu Paper presented at the China Initiative Research Seminar, Watson Institute, Brown University, November 12, 2015. Note to readers: while any feedback on this draft paper is welcome, I am particularly interested in the utility and formulation of the taxonomy suggested in the conclusion. Also, please do not cite or quote without explicit permission. I. Introduction1 How do local governments contribute to innovation and, by extension, development in China? While scholars disagree as to whether local governments are helpful or harmful, there is a consensus that they are relevant. 2 The link between local governments and growth is well-considered in scholarship. Similarly, literature on innovation by Chinese firms is extensive, 3 as is the question of how the PRC central government policy may foster innovation. (Contributions to these literatures are cited throughout this paper). Yet the influence of local government on firm innovation is curiously underexamined in studies of innovation and industrial upgrading in China. A major study of China’s innovation capacity by the OECD, for example, largely fails to mention the role of local government (OECD 2007).4 The role played by local government might be addressed in several ways. One approach would be to look at the efficiency and innovation outcomes of funds spent by local governments, in other words, to “follow the (local state) money” and track pro-innovation outcomes such as increase in patents or measures tied to market success. While this approach would have many advantages, the lack of a clear (or transparent) trail and other design and measurement 1 Thanks to representatives of a number of the local governments and firms discussed here for information and perspective, to Liu Wei for research assistance and to Tom Rawski, Loren Brandt, Eric Thun, Jennifer Hadden, Joanna Lewis, Yixin Dai, Ciqi Mei, and Zhilin Liu for comments on earlier drafts of this paper. 2 In the political science literature alone, for example, see Oi (1992, 1999); Yasheng Huang (2002); Heilmann (2008); Heilmann et al (2014); Gallagher (2014); Xu (2011); Chen Ling (2012, 2013). 3 As is referenced below, this literature tends to focus on market factors, including global value chains, have led to expanded innovative capacity in China. See, for example: Nahm and Steinfeld 2014; Brandt and Thun 2010. 4 Often industry studies fail to highlight the role of local governments except in passing, e.g., Bär (2013). Exceptions are OECD 2008 (ch. 7), Dai 2015, and Liu and Chen 2012. 1 issues at the local level would pose substantial difficulties. Alternatively, one might examine variation in innovative outcomes among in-country regions to try to assess what local political factors (among others) lead to greater or lesser innovation in a sector (e.g., Chen 2013, 2015; Breznitz and Murphree 2011; see Rithmire 2014). This paper takes a complementary approach. It considers how local governments in China typically do or do not foster an innovative ecosystem for firms. Under what circumstances do local governments create an environment that can enable firm-level upgrading or industry success, thereby contributing to the center’s goal of an innovative economy? In what ways might the ecosystem presented by local governments be a hindrance to firm innovation? Thus, rather than directly assessing whether innovation has occurred (a project that itself is subject to substantial debate about how “innovation” should be valued and defined), I examine how the local government ecosystem affects industries subject to industrial policy in areas Beijing hopes will be innovative.5 I draw on scholarship on PRC central-local relations and local officials’ behavior, as well as scholarship on “innovation systems,” to show patterns of behavior that affect industry structures and other firm outcomes in a given locality. The empirical focus is local government influence on the development of clean energy industries, specifically solar cells (PVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). Development of the clean energy sector has been a key theme of discussions on China’s response to environmental degradation and climate change. Yet clean energy has been not just an environmental policy; it is also, and perhaps foremost, an industrial policy. Despite high-level emphasis on sustainable development, the implementation of China’s clean energy industry – as a part of China’s push for innovation as well as sustainable development - has followed in the well-trod footsteps of Chinese industrial policies. It has been designated as one of the PRC’s “Strategic Emerging Industries” (SEIs) and fully incorporated into the Five-Year Plan process.6 While this is a natural and expected 5 As discussed below, both EV and PV panel industries have been designated Strategic Emerging Industries. Government policy has explicit goals for these “strategic” industries to be “innovative.” This is especially true of the EV industry, where foreign technology barriers to entry (particularly for hybrid vehicles) have been high. 6 “Strategic emerging industries” were introduced in 2006, but only gained momentum with the 2008 financial crisis. Beijing emphasized domestic self-reliance in order to: avoid royalty payments to foreign firms; avoid overdependence upon foreign sources including global value chains. (Kennedy, Suttmeier and Su, 2008) 2 process in the Chinese policy context, the envelopment of the sectors by industrial policy processes leaves a distinctive – and, I conclude, often deleterious - mark on the trajectory of China’s clean energy industry. More optimistically, it is clear that new energy industries in China have successfully upgraded, both in terms of cost and process, and perhaps product.7 Many Chinese manufacturing firms, including in new energy, have shown strong ability to upgrade, especially at the lower price and quality end of the market.8 Yet there is also quite a bit of variation in innovation by new energy firms. In electric vehicle sedans, for example, Chinese firms has been very slow to convert the country’s strong auto industry to be able to supply a nascent EV market. (Bernstein 2013) Consistent with this variation, we can imagine that local governments create both helpful and harmful impacts. Drawing on analysis of these varying outcomes in the empirical cases of solar cell and electric vehicles industries, I conclude by suggesting a simple taxonomy of how local governments treat industries in sectors in which China’s central government hopes to foster innovation. Background note on innovation literatures Parameters of the relationship between governments and firm innovation are set squarely in broad debates (in economics, business and policy literatures) characterized by two dominant strands, roughly categorized as market-based and state-supported. Marketbased theories on successful innovation depict the process primarily as a bottom-up one, originating with entrepreneurs, and often pivoting off firms’ access to and position in the global or regional value chain.9 While recognizing that it is desirable for states to provide a positive environment for technology development (through proper policy guarantees of, e.g., protection of physical and intellectual property, regulation, etc.), this model emphasizes that the main locus of innovation rests in society and particularly among non7 Scholars identify several basic categories of innovation, often distinguishing between product and process innovation. Many observers argue that China has made major strides in second generation, incremental process innovation, i.e., the incremental mixing of established technologies to come up with new solutions, often at lower cost. A primer on innovation policy is Fagerberg, Mowery and Nelson (2005). 8 Relevant studies include Nahm and Steinfeld 2013; Lewis 2013; Abrami and Brandt, ms.; and for other industries Brandt and Thun 2010, Dinh et al 2013. 9 A classic work on disruptive innovation based on Schumpeterian notions of creative destruction is Christensen (1997). 3 state economic actors. Private capital markets including venture capital, moreover, provide the most efficient means of allocating resources to inherently risky ventures. The dominant competing theoretical approach to the market-based model of innovation is, of course, a statist approach that places government policy at the center. One strand of the statist approach, the developmental state literature, draws its inspiration from Gershenkron’s (1962) argument with regard to late 19th century industrial development that state institutions can usefully aid industries in their efforts to acquire capital and technology.10 A highly capable bureaucracy at the nation’s administrative center works with major industrial firms to formulate a policy to leapfrog developmental stages that typically had been followed in Western advanced countries. A second strand of the statist approach focuses on the state’s role in ameliorating market failure, i.e., when market mechanisms do not adequately incentivize the funneling of resources into knowledge creation and innovation.11 Governments can therefore play a positive role not just in establishing institutions (rights to intellectual property, etc.) but also in directing public financing to firms, reducing the risk they face from failed innovation efforts. (Hall and van Reenen 2000) Similarly, governments may help produce demand for products, largely through demand-side subsidies or purchases. A third strand, the literature on national innovation systems, goes even further to suggest the benefit of more extensive government contributions, such as funding public research and development institutions, and expansive funding for public education. The statist literature pays less attention to the problem of political failure, when political concerns of government officials produce other incentives that may hinder innovation. (I find such political failure important in the cases analyzed below.) Each of these literatures suggests clear policy prescriptions, most of which are not mutually-exclusive. In turn, China’s own innovation-related policies over the past three decades represents each of these sets of policy prescriptions; indeed, innovationpromotion policy in China actually is quite diverse, combining efforts to foster some combination of top-down industrial policy and bottom-up market driven factors. The Gershenkron’s argument underpins the East Asian developmental state literature. See Johnson, 1982, Amsden, 1989, and Wade 1990. See also Wong 2011. 11 Arrow (1962) identifies how the market fails to invest when innovative knowledge is imperfectly excludable. Hall (2005) theorizes that funding for new untried ideas cannot ex ante identify successful ideas from failures. 10 4 emphasis of the past decade on “commercialization” and the core role of technology firms in innovation recognizes that market-based sources will be key, including firms already deeply engaged in global value chains. At the same time, the Chinese government clearly sees a role for the state in innovation.12 As in the developmental state model, the party has taken pains to develop – and has been largely successful (despite tendencies for corruption) at developing - a highly capable bureaucracy at both the central and local levels.13 Beijing pays massive attention to industrial development, using instruments consistent with the developmental state, market failure, and national innovation system strands of statist policy literature. Such attention is at the core of the Strategic Emerging Industries initiative. Local governments play a key role in China’s SEI policies. Local state involvement revolves around local governments’ efforts to use the institutional infrastructure of industrial policy, and to respond to the center’s signals to use industrial policy instruments. At the same time, local officials attempt to respond to conditions they face on the ground. These may include “market conforming” efforts directed at helping firms build on existing capabilities found within enterprises. Alternatively, their efforts may be directed at the political benefits local officials stand to gain from showing a loyal response to the center’s signals to produce “innovation,” especially enhancing the prospects for cadre promotion. Still further, local officials are keen to have development of these industries serve other economic needs, particularly employment and taxes.14 While the consequence of local officials’ desire to meet their political and development goals need not always be negative, this dynamic can provide a breeding ground for political failure in industries Beijing hopes will be innovative. The local government - new energy industry nexus: the key roles of industry characteristics and Beijing’s signals 12 Beijing also has increased its emphasis on providing support for innovation with domestic origins, socalled “indigenous innovation.” The implicit innovation policy of Deng Xiaoping’s “opening to the outside world” incorporated foreign technology; a mix of foreign investment and purchasing technology on international markets using export earnings served as a key force for industrial upgrading. (Ernst 2009). See also OECD (2008), ch. 10. 13 The PRC’s comparative advantage in this area is emphasized in Bardhan and Mukherjee eds. (2006). 14 Dai’s (2015) interviews in the solar and wind sectors illustrate clearly that employment and tax concerns were paramount in local officials’ attitudes toward creating an ecosystem for firms in these sectors. 5 The two sectors examined here, solar cells and electric vehicles, are subject to Chinese industrial policy, but they differ in industry-level outcomes. In brief, the low end of the EV sector (low speed vehicles) has been quite dynamic, despite Beijing’s efforts to discourage it, whereas the high end of the EV sector (passenger sedans and buses) has been relatively moribund. The solar panel sector has seen substantial cost innovation, but also tremendous waste. Exploring these differences is instructive for analysis of the local government role. I focus on two clusters of variables, both of which set the context for local officials, and that appear in sync with different outcomes: industry characteristics (inter-related qualities of barriers to entry, fragmentation of the market and presence of strong incumbents) and strength of signals sent by Beijing. In terms of industry characteristics, the solar panel industry in its developing years was characterized by relatively low technological barriers to entry, and despite the presence of some large firms (such as Suntech, Trina and Yingli), also contained many small and very local firms. This sector also has been characterized by deep ties to the global value chain. Given extensive market competition, the main type of innovation has been in terms of cost and pace of production (Nahm and Steinfeld 2013). The electric vehicle sector is divided into large vehicles (sedans and buses) and small low-speed vehicles. The former have depended heavily on large incumbent auto companies in China, including joint ventures. In this part of the EV market, technological and sometimes protectionist barriers to entry are high; for example, many of the main technologies are foreign (especially Japanese and Korean, involving high IP costs), and in general the cost of a key component – lithium-based batteries – is high. These cost and market entry barriers have not successfully been reduced. (Bernstein 2013) The low-speed and ebicycle segment of the EV market are quite different, and have more in common with the solar cell market although from the start they have produced mainly for the domestic market. Firms (such as Kandi and Shifeng, as discussed below) have built on manufacturing and cost advantages in their regions, and lack of foreign competition, to supply the low end of the market. This has allowed consumers who cannot afford sedans to upgrade from bicycles and motorcycles to small vehicles. It has led in some cities to new business models, such as promoting a rental and battery switching model. (These in 6 turn are being tried for EV sedans.) Neither technology nor cost barriers to entry are as high as in the sedan sector. The second dimension, the strength and nature of industrial policy signals – meaning primarily the level of priority in Beijing’s strategic hierarchy - also varies across these sectors.15 The central government has pressed a “green energy” agenda that includes both solar and EVs as new energy strategic industries. As noted, this agenda is implemented primarily through the channels of China’s industrial policy, and also have been seen as venues for possible “indigenous innovation” (especially in the case of EV sedans). Local officials can benefit from showing responsiveness to Beijing’s SEI agenda. Despite these similarities, in practice Beijing has been much less supportive of low-speed EVs and bikes than EV sedans. The central government’s treatment of the solar industry has been more supportive than for low-end EVs, and for example has made limited subsidies for solar available, but in some respects has signaled its displeasure with this industry over runaway investment, particularly after export markets collapsed.16 But, as is well known, local governments have been more keen than the center to subsidize the establishment of new solar panel firms for purposes of local industrial development than for innovation. Similarly, despite electric vehicles’ place as a specified SEI industry, the NDRC actively tried to squelch the development of the low-speed segment. For solar panels and low-speed EVs, local governments had more leeway to respond in ways that were market-conforming. In contrast, signals for higher-end electric sedans and public vehicles were strong, including extensive subsidies to consumers and encouragement of local governments to provide demand and infrastructure; in other words, Beijing was much more active in addressing market failure in this arena. Local governments were quite keen to respond to Beijing’s signal, and to help create the market, even as they also wished to leverage the opportunities new auto manufacturing locations would have for local growth and employment. But while needing to respond to Beijing’s signals, producers of EV sedans and buses had less opportunity to be market conforming, as there 15 This dimension draws in particular on the literature by scholars of Chinese politics on central-local relations and local government behavior. 16 In particular, with the collapse of international export markets as a result of the 2012 international trade dispute over solar panels, NDRC officials were not supportive of bail outs for ailing Chinese solar panel firms. 7 was not a market! As a result of these varying dynamics, at least in part, key differences in the local ecosystems emerge. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The second section discusses the ways in which Chinese local governments might ideally provide an environment that fosters innovation, including being well positioned to play positive roles in overcoming market failure. The third section dives into what are essentially mini-case studies in the solar and electric vehicles industries that illustrate how local governments have in fact served to enable firms in innovation-related industries. It then considers examples of problematic local behavior, notably problems of wasted local investment of land and funds, extensive local protectionism and fragmentation of efforts, and problematic firm responses to subsidies and lack of adequate private financing. The final section concludes with suggesting a simple taxonomy as to how local governments may provide (or not) an innovative ecosystem. II. Intersection Points for Local Governments in Promoting Innovative Industries What role might local governments ideally play in fostering new and innovative industries? How might pro-innovation incentives set by the center be channeled down to local governments to produce industrial innovation and upgrading? Scholars of innovation have identified a clear role for local governments. The “regional innovation systems” approach (a subset of Nelson’s classic concept of “national innovation systems”) emphasizes that innovation – as a collective enterprise – is frequently best served when collaboration is promoted between governments, firms, and research organizations such as universities and institutes. Much as occurs with industrial production clusters, the co-location of these actors may create synergies. (Asheim and Gertler 2005; Sagar and Zwaan 2006) In theory, regional proximity can open the door for local governments to help coordinate the circulation of knowledge as well as in the promotion of strong systemic relationships between firms and a given region’s knowledge infrastructure. Moreover, to the extent that different regions contain 8 distinctive “regional cultures,” it may be crucial for local institutions (including governments) to help coordinate central policy.17 Local governments also often channel economic resources from the national government to the cluster or firm. (Asheim and Gertler 2005) Yet the vision of localgovernment-as-coordinator is not limited to implementing policy from the national level. Local coordination can help overcome lack of trust that may be inherent between actors – actors in competing firms, institutes, and funding organizations. (Powell and Grodal 2005) Coordination can direct resources to where they are most effectively used, and prevent wasteful duplication. Local governments also are crucial for setting a proper local policy environment, particularly for market entrance and exit of firms, but also in tax policy (e.g., tax incentives related to technology zones), promotion of effective allocation schemes for funds (including public and private lending) and land, among other standard policy instruments.18 Local governments in China often play these facilitating roles, consistent with the regional innovation system perspective. First, as part of China’s unitary system of government, local governments are expected - and have authority - to carry out central policy, including industrial policy. Particularly when central and local government incentives align, or can be made to align, local governments are well-positioned to carry out central policy. (Dai 2015; Kostka and Hobbs 2012) Second, also due to the unitary system, local governments contain institutionalized pockets of expertise (a remnant of China’s central planning system) that might help facilitate the support of innovative enterprises. For example, local offices of provincial and municipal-level institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, local Science and Technology bureaus of MOST, local offices of the Development Research Center (DRC), and even SASAC (with its recently acquired mandate to help achieve an innovative society) are available to provide appropriate knowledge-input. Indeed, many of these sub-national bureaus have provided input into the formulation of innovation policies at the national level, such as the SEIs. 17 Chen Ling (2012) traces the differences in regional business cultures in China to innovation outcomes in Sunan and Guangdong. 18 On sub-national governments’ roles in provision of these public goods in Europe, see OECD (2007), p. 48. With regard to China, Breznitz and Murphree (2011) compare the different models employed in three Chinese regions – Beijing, Shanghai and the Pearl River Delta – and how each succeeded in promoting second order (primarily process) innovation. Earlier works on regional differences in a single sector include, for IT, Segal (2003) and for the automobile industry (Thun 2006). 9 (Interviews; and OECD 2008: 363) Locally funded research institutes (or branches of national institutes) since the mid-1990s have been instructed to contribute to the technology and social and human capital needed for commercialization of innovation. They have, often for a licensing fee, provided key technology to firms.. Moreover, local offices of industrial, commerce and trade bureaus have proved valuable in connecting local firms with international market actors - linking local firms with global value chains.19 Finally, despite the possibility of direct central intervention, local discretion in implementation of – and experimentation with – policy has long been an integral part of the Chinese political system. A well-established tradition of local policy experimentation in China lends itself to the promotion of innovation by local political actors, or to their support of firm innovation efforts that could to benefit the local jurisdiction. (Oi 1992; Heilmann 2008; Xu 2011) Thus, local governments, as experimenters, are expected to put their own stamp on central policies, making them appropriate to local conditions.20 Reform-era decentralization measures have enhanced local autonomy in implementation, as well as sub-national discretion over some aspects of spending and promotion of growth and development measures. Despite much waste and corruption, local governments are widely seen to have been a key factor in the promotion of local entrepreneurship and, more generally, in promoting China’s remarkable post-Mao growth. (Bardhan 2010; Montinola et al 1995). Scholars have found ample evidence that local governments around China have played roles highlighted in the regional innovation systems literature.21 In particular, local governments have played a coordination role, as evident in the proliferation of high technology development zones (HTDZs), science parks, and other “incubators.” The rapid development of small, technology firms in China in the past decade is in part a reflection of the huge investment made by local governments in science parks, often in conjunction with local universities and research institutes. (Zhou 2008; OECD 2008 p. 19 On the importance of global value chains in innovation, see Humphrey and Schmitz 2002; Gereffi, Humphrey and Sturgeon 2005; Baldwin and Clark 1997; Berger 2006. 20 On how provincial and province-level municipalities have modified Beijing’s call for SEIs to support their own local conditions, see USCBC 2013. 21 These roles are discussed only briefly in this paper, as they are well covered elsewhere (e.g., Breznitz and Murphree 2011, ch. 2). 10 369f). These parks were to be developed under the auspices of MOST’s overarching Torch program, and yet control over their establishment and management (as well as funding) were given to local governments, which also have donated the land and other resources.22 In other words, a local government may be able to spur an anchor firm that can then attract complementary industries to the region to create an “innovation cluster.” For example, in the solar sector, Yingli Solar (a private firm) was given a prominent anchor location in the HTDZ in Baoding. Linked closely to the coordination function is the provision of significant local funding for potentially innovative firms. Indeed, it is difficult to overstate how important local funding has been for innovation programs in China. According to OECD (2007, 56), “For programmes to support the commercialization of research, such as Torch and Spark, the [central] government accounts for no more than 2 to 5% of total funding, while local governments and enterprises typically provide large shares of funding for programs related to innovation and dissemination of technologies.” Liu and Chen (2012) report that the total amount of R & D investment by regional governments is larger than that of the central government. The bulk of this local investment is in wealthy provinces such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang.23 Supports have come in the form of direct grants, low interest bank loans, and state-backed venture capital. Chinese local governments also commonly provide subsidies, on both the producer and the demand sides (see examples below), but especially on the former.24 Direct subsidies, such as those channeled through government-run “incubators,” are a means to respond to the central government’s guidance to direct resources to innovative industries. HTDZs – and the Torch program projects - were not intended to support basic research but, rather, innovation that could rapidly be commercialized and therefore produce jobs. In this sense, though promoted as directed at “high-technology” goods, attention went to already mature technologies for which business plans could be quickly rolled out. Breznitz and Murphree (2011, p. 81) point to the Shenzhen HTDZ as a successful example of local (provincial in this case) governmental coordination by streamlining procedures and ensuring access for firms to a complete value chain. Heilmann et al (2013) have argued that the Torch program for high technology zones has had a very positive feedback effect in central policy. 23 On significant regional disparities in R & D expenditures (from all sources, including local governments) and R & D intensity (expenditures as a percentage of GDP) see OECD 2008, p. 43. Chapter 7 of this report examines the differences in the regional systems of Shanghai, Liaoning, and Sichuan. Each region has its own plan for how to meet innovation goals, with each plan to some degree reflecting the local context and comparative advantage. A similar study is Sigurdson (2004). 24 National subsidies, such as – for clean energy – feed in tariffs, stimulate demand. Incentives geared toward producers tend to be more the purview of local governments and hence tend to favor particular firms. 22 11 In recent years, local governments, particularly in wealthy regions, have not only given direct grants, but also have coordinated private local venture capital (VC) to invest in tech start-ups. Although some VC may come from international firms, the further away from Beijing and Shanghai the more the funding has come from localized sources.25 Liu and Chen (2012) point to the emergence of government-coordinated VC firms in Jiangsu in which officials do not directly manage the capital but instead hire a professional commercial organization to run it. Wuxi in particular, in the mid-2000s, began a high risk-high return government venture capital fund (无锡市创业投资基金) to help fund innovative firms. (He[a] 2006) This may be a creative way to mobilize local funds where private institutional capital is not readily available. III. A Balance Sheet of Local Government Involvement in the Solar and Electric Vehicles Sectors Local governments in China endeavor to carry out the policies as mandated or signaled by the central government in Beijing, often using some degree of discretion to tailor their response to their own situation. In doing so, they may succeed at ameliorating market failures. But the Chinese political system also creates situations of political failure – i.e., officials take actions that could in principle create net benefits but fail to deliver in reality because political concerns push implementation in unfortunate directions.26 The sections that follow discuss cases from solar panel and electric vehicle industries to illustrate the positive and negative elements of the local ecosystem for green energy firms. While the positive benefits are largely consistent with mechanisms specified in the national/regional innovations systems literature, the negative elements are better explained by literature on central-local relations in China. Helpful Local Government Participation 25 Based on network analysis by the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship/China 2.0 project, Stanford University School of Business. 26 Actions of Chinese local governments are clearly not unique in this regard. The US government, for example, has dozens of overlapping conflicting, duplicative programs to encourage policy goals, including for green energy. 12 The PRC government has provided resources and government signals to help encourage innovative firms in the clean energy sector. It is not difficult to find evidence of local government initiatives that have helped create a positive ecosystem for innovative firms in solar and electric vehicles, and in turn appear to have bolstered firm success. As we shall see, such efforts do not exclude the fact that in some of these same cases the local government role simultaneously was – or became - problematic. Moreover, local officials have particular goals in mind, to which local firm actions should align themselves. Primary among these goals are the provision of jobs, revenues, and a positive reputation for both the locale and the official(s) involved.27 When such positive political payoffs are at stake, we can expect local officials to become active advocates for and negotiators on behalf of local firms – for better (illustrated in this section) or for worse (in the next). In the solar industry, the photovoltaic solar cell producer Suntech, in part due to support by the Wuxi government, has often been pointed to as a model of business and innovation success. (He 2006) (These successes –including in innovation28 - were most notable before 2006, i.e., prior to the firm’s financial problems and the 2012 embroilment of the whole Chinese solar panel industry in international trade disputes.) As is wellknown, the Wuxi municipal and Jiangsu provincial governments helped lure the firm and its entrepreneurial founder, Shi Zhengrong, an overseas Chinese engineer living in Australia. The Wuxi government provided sizable initial start-up grants and subsidies, taking a major equity stake in the firm by providing US$ 6 million in return for a 75% equity stake. The city later helped Suntech search for additional funding from national and local sources, for example, from the provincial Science and Technology department. Some of these loans did not need to be repaid. Wuxi officials further helped organize a sizable package of loans from banks and local venture capital groups; notably, former official turned board chair Li Yanren helped arrange for 5 billion yuan in low-interest loans. Subsequently, and in anticipation of Suntech’s 2006 listing on the NY Stock Exchange, the Wuxi government offloaded its shares to other investors – including local Dai’s (2015) interviews show this clearly in the wind and solar cell industries. Suntech made efficiency improvements in low-cost solar cells, improved wafer technology, and obtained 55 patents. (He 2006; Ahrens 2013) More recently it has moved into thin-film technology, that will allow further diversification of its business to higher margin areas. Suntech also made some favorable strategic moves, including the securing of long term upstream contracts for silicon supplies. 27 28 13 state backed “venture capital.” (Ahrens 2013, 2) In addition, the government was instrumental in setting up a regional cluster for the PVC industry in Jiangsu, completing a relatively full value chain in a few years. It also set up an R&D center that has led to manufacturing and efficiency improvements – though the commoditization of solar cells in recent years have rendered it more price and quality-driven than innovation driven. Nevertheless, at least in part as a result of these activities, higher-tech silicon slicing technology could be developed and commercialized in the region. (Liu and Chen 2012) Wuxi government officials also sought to help on the demand side, finding projects that Suntech could supply. In short, the “Wuxi Model” of financial support from the city government has been touted as a major reason for Suntech’s success, with the implication that Suntech was an innovative firm. Suntech was, furthermore, the prototype for Wuxi’s 2006 “530 Plan,” designed to supply between 1 and 3 million RMB per approved project, the major criterion for approval being that the project is technologically promising. The number of registered companies under this program has reached 876, with a total registered capital of 2.5 billion RMB.29 The role of the Baoding municipal officials (Hebei Province) was similarly important for the emergence of the private Yingli Solar (英利太阳能). Key supports are in the provision of land, tax reductions, and aid in obtaining building permits. Local officials also have supported the firm in its applications for central government funding. (Local government contributions are generally required to be awarded central funds.) Local government approval of bank loans remains necessary, and also is considered a de facto government guarantee for the repayment of loans. Local government help has not been limited to that supplied by Baoding. Yingli Solar began to diversify away from PV production toward downstream power generation, and has developed a provincial government-based organizational strategy.30 Yingli planned to substantially decentralize operations away from its Baoding headquarters, to build independent generating stations 29 http://www.1000plan.org/qrjh/channel/11 30 This strategy was pursued vigorously in part by the collapse of international markets for solar panels and the US-China trade war in this area, and the PRC central government’s subsequent efforts to limit bank loans for the production of solar panels. On this strategy, see http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20140220/492008.shtml. On CDB loans, see http://www.china5e.com/news/news-336467-1.html. 14 for solar power, especially in western and southwestern provinces (e.g., Xinjiang, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi). Building new branches in other provinces meant courting close ties with those provincial governments, as Yingli needed substantial funds for these generating stations come from local governments. The firm also wished for these governments to contribute land and facilitate loans from other sources including provincial branches of the China Development Bank and Bank of Transportation. Yingli also expanded to Hainan, where it was necessary to work with local government as well. Representatives attribute the ability to build the production facility within three months to positive coordination between the firm’s CEO and the Hainan provincial government. In similar fashion, the founder of LDK Solar (江西赛维 Jiangxi saiwei), Peng Xiaofeng, shopped around to find the most favorable city government, one that would provide financial support and generally mobilize around the industry. Peng found his answer in the small city of Xinyu (Jiangxi Province). (Wang 2007) yet although LDK gained the support of the Xinyu government, and despite LDK’s ability claim itself part of a strategic emerging industry, there is little apparent innovation involved in the company – a problem discussed below. Turning to the second case, note that China’s auto industry structure has been characterized by the emergence of a few national firms (many a mix of SOE and privateforeign joint ventures. Beijing’s EV policy seems to have assumed these large firms would lead the foray into EV sedans. At the same time, many provinces have homegrown local auto industries, many of which have been beneficiaries of barriers to entry via local (provincial) protectionism. These local firms often produce lower quality and price vehicles This dual structure illustrates keenly how the two core variables – industry structure and policy signals from Beijing – play out. In the EV sector, Shenzhen’s BYD Auto (比亚迪), has been at the forefront of China’s electric vehicles industry. BYD exemplifies how local government behavior has intersected the emergence of this sector. Subsidies on the supply and demand sides alike have been important.31 BYD’s income statements show government grants of 400-500 Central subsidies to consumers for EV passenger vehicles on the MIIT’s approved list have been between 35,000 and 60,000 yuan, though these were scaled back starting in 2014. In addition, substantial reductions or exemptions from purchase taxes are also applied to EVs. Local subsidies in some places as 31 15 million RMB. BYD also enjoys large revolving lines of bank credit, for example, a 10 bil RMB line of credit from the China Development Bank. The 2011 interim financial report by the Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission shows total subsidies of 1 bil. RMB.32 The Shenzhen municipal government also provided coordination between the firm, banks and other SOEs, while the Guangdong provincial government issued official documents showing clear support for BYD electric car projects. (Chen Zhijie 2008) Perhaps most important, the Shenzhen municipal government agreed to purchase BYD electric vehicles for its municipal taxi and public security bureau fleets. So did other governments where BYD agreed to invest, including Tianjin, Xian, Kunming, and Chengdu. This “demand pull” support became a central pillar of BYD’s business plan. Shenzhen municipality also subsidized the purchase of BYD electric vehicles for individual consumers,33 and facilitated the establishment of a number of charging stations for electric cars, though as we shall see these have been insufficient. (A similar story can be told for Xiangfan New Energy Vehicles in Xiangfan, Hubei. Li 2010.) Discretion by local governments – to tailor policies to local characteristics or opportunities – is often characterized as “experimentation,” and as noted is typically viewed as a positive, flexible aspect of Chinese policy-making. In the EV arena, Beijing has authorized local experimentation as well through the 2009 “10 Cities, 1000 Vehicles” program.34 Cities such as Guangzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou were granted leeway to decide how to best promote the expansion of electric vehicle usage in their cities, and tended to develop strategies that centered on their ‘local’ industry (for example, BYD in much as double this one-time purchase subsidy. See Mock and Yang (2014) and “China Offers Billions to Subsidize Electric Cars on Gas,” Bloomberg News, December 10, 2014. 32 For these figures, see: http://business.sohu.com/20111024/n323217435.shtml, and http://money.163.com/11/1025/16/7H7P6V4T00253G87.html. 33 “BYD Leverages the “Power” of the Shenzhen Government” [“Jiè lì shēnzhèn zhèngfǔ bǐyǎdí lái “diàn”le Jiè lì Lái “diàn”] Auto World [Qìchē dà shìjiè] January 4, 2010 http://news.mycar168.com/2010/01/151898.html 34 The June 2009 plan for the industry was to have 500,000 electric vehicles deployed by 2015, and 5 million by 2020. (The number of cities was subsequently expanded from 10 in 2009 to 25 in 2011.) A recent report notes that “by the end of 2012, only about 17,400 EVs were deployed nationwide. Official figures put the number of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles (which include but are not limited to EVs) combined at 27,400; only 16% were sold to private buyers, underscoring public sector dominance in this developing market. (China Greentech Report 2013) See also Gallagher (2014). 16 Shenzhen).35 Hangzhou, for example, built on its past positive experiences with bicycle rentals to build electric battery rental and mini-bus rental models, and to promote “battery switching” as a remedy for the lack of a charging infrastructure. Kandi Automotive (康 迪汽车), traditionally a manufacturer of small vehicles such as ATVs, go-karts, and golf carts, was at the forefront of these efforts. Kandi worked closely with the Hangzhou and Zhejiang Province governments36 and, subsequently, Shanghai governments. These major municipal governments have participated extensively by providing land for rental locations and charging stations operated by a Kandi JV, ZZY (左中右)37. Kandi also was greatly benefited by forming a joint venture with the large private Shanghai firm Geely. This JV was important for Kandi to be able to switch from the use of lead acid batteries to lithium iron phosphate batteries. Geely also facilitated Kandi’s attempts in 2013 to gain approval from the central NDRC of its low-speed models, resulting in these models being listed in the MIIT directory as approved and qualifying for consumer EV subsidies from the national government, not just from provinces. The combination of business model innovation, cooperation with other major market actors, and positive support from local governments allowed Kandi to lead sales of all EVs in China in the 2012-14 period, and facilitated the firm’s entrance to major markets outside of Zhejiang Province, such as Shanghai and Nanjing.38 These sorts of experiments, when aligned with Beijing’s intentions, are therefore seen as a relatively positive and unique part of China’s policy process. (Marquis et al, 2013).39 As will be discussed below, however, there is a significant downside to these local experiments insofar as they can promote 35 Guangzhou municipality has advocated the adoption of electric vehicles for taxis, providing charging locations for taxicabs. 36 Jinhua, Zhejiang, the home city of Kandi, was named a provincial pilot city for new energy by the Zhejiang government. 37 Rentals are not yet profitable; as of late 2014 the company is only renting half of the 6 hours per day needed to break even. Huátài zhèngquàn yán jiù bàogào [Huatai Securities research report], “Xīn néngyuán qìchē chǎnyè liàn diàoyán zhī kāng dí chē yè: Wēi gōngjiāo móshì diǎnrán shìchǎng” [“New energy automotive industry survey of Condi Auto: Micro-bus mode ignites the market." http://finance.qq.com/a/20140827/054110.htm. 38 Kandi’s success at topping sales is reported in http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/27/china-electric-carsales-reach-record-high-charts/. 39 When Beijing approves of the outcomes of local discretion the practice is seen as positive experimentation. When the outcomes are negative, Beijing often deems the behavior “defiance.” How to encourage positive discretion and avoid the negative is a major issue for China’s central government. See Mei and Pearson (2014). 17 protectionism and hinder the adoption of nationwide standards that might better facilitate EV adoption. Beijing views other local experimentation to meet local conditions as more problematic, although the impact may be better for innovation in the sector and, ultimately, EV adoption in the local market. The promotion of low-speed electric vehicles in Shandong Province is a case in point. Local economic development agents and auto firms in Shandong - notably Shifeng Automotive Group (山东时风汽车集团), traditionally a producer of trucks and tractors - lobbied hard beginning in 2009 for the provincial government to approve a pilot for producing low-speed, light weight vehicles particularly suited for rural areas.40 Local (county and municipal) support included not only lobbying but also provision of investment funds and land for industrial parks. These vehicles would be upgrades from bicycles, electric scooters, and three wheel motorcycles, and could be offered affordably to rural businesses and families.41 Part of the low cost was due to use of lead acid batteries as opposed to the lithium batteries preferred by Beijing. Low-speed EVs were even more affordable because, as until recently the vehicles were not classified as “automobiles,” consumers required no license and therefore could avoid licensing fees. However, as the vehicles are very lightweight, and because their low speed capacity could disrupt regular traffic, safety concerns persisted. NDRC officials in Beijing publicly called such vehicles “junk technology” (垃圾技术), saying they failed to meet national standards.42 Despite the absence of central approval, and with the backing of the provincial government, this local pilot has been relatively successful at putting affordable electric vehicles on the roads, especially in rural areas; 40 Shandong Provincial government development officials viewed low-speed vehicles as part of development of a new industry in electric vehicles, hoping that by 2014 the province’s EV industry sales would reach 100 billion yuan, with 300,000 vehicles. NetEase Auto 网易汽车, http://auto.163.com/13/1024/16/9BVE5VFD00084TV1.html (Oct. 24, 2013). 41 As Brandt and Thun (2010) argue, domestic firms that cannot compete with large SOEs or foreign firms often innovate by targeting low quality, low price-points segments. Thus, these EV firms’ success may be due more to market position and strategy than their special treatment by the provincial government. 42 NDRC Department of Industry Director Li Gang’s declaration that EVs are “junk technology” is at: 耿慧 丽: “低速电动车争议再起 发改委官员公开否定, 2011 年 07 月 29 日,经济观察网。[Geng Huili: "Controversy Over Low-Speed Electric Vehicles has Arisen Again, as NDRC Officials Publicly Reject,” July 29, 2011, Economic Observer Online.] http://auto.qq.com/a/20110729/000199.htm. Protectionism for major incumbent auto-makers was also likely involved in the efforts of both NDRC (responsible for setting SETI policy) and MIIT (responsible for setting standards in the EV sector) to squelch low-speed EV manufacturing. 18 whereas China has underperformed its target for putting 500,000 hybrids and EVs in use by the end of 2015, in 2012 Shifeng delivered about 30,000 low speed vehicles to dealers.43 Beijing eventually relented in its opposition, and in the fall of 2014 allowed subsidies to be applied to these vehicles, suggesting such innovation is no longer “illegal.”44 Distortive Influences of Local Government Local governments clearly have substantial opportunities to take on coordination roles in support of the development of clean energy technology as a public good. Beyond the cases discussed briefly in the previous section, there are myriad examples where, on the surface, local governments have pursued coordination and financing mechanisms to support prospective innovators. Yet local government participation often has failed to create a positive ecosystem for new energy firms. This section lays out several patterns of local government behavior that hinder and at times even overshadow what otherwise might be their positive catalytic function. The Interplay between Central “Signals” and Tangible Local Results Local governments in China must be conduits of central government policy. Despite the shift from directive planning to “guidance” planning in which central statements serve more as a guide, localities are still expected to respond to the center, including to both broad five-year plans and sector-specific policies. First and foremost, the central guidance, such as in the SEI initiative in general, and new energy industry promotion specifically, are signals of the center’s policy preferences, to which local officials must show some degree of responsiveness, as if they comply. Not only is this to be expected as a function of the unitary political system, but also the promotion system for local officials is tied to responsiveness to signals. The top-down cadre management system produces career incentives for local officials to show responsiveness. This occurs “Rural Chinese Flock to Tiny Electric Cars,” New York Times, April 19, 2012. In 2013, only 17,000 hybrid and EVs (cars and buses) were sold across the country. 44 In 2014 Guangdong and Hebei provinces followed suit, with provincial pilot programs to support lowspeed lead acid battery vehicles. 43 19 through the regular performance evaluation, rotation, and turnover.45 Furthermore, the cadre management system – in addition to and supportive of a norm of local “experimentation” – helps protect local cadres’ promotion ambitions as they creatively experiment with how to align their concrete governance interests with the signals of the center. Officials’ creativity was aided by 1984 reforms according to which the central party organization only manages the careers of officials of the immediate lower (provincial) level. This change helped insulate local leaders if their experiments come to be deemed contrary to central directives.46 If we accept, as most of the literature on Chinese local governance does, that local cadres are much concerned with how their performance affects their prospects for promotion, and understand the local flexibility to develop specific plans for innovation, then it becomes clear how well-known cracks in the alignment between central guidance and local interests might affect local governments’ innovation incentives. Local officials in the state’s nomenklatura system typically have quite short time horizons.47 As their terms in office often are shorter than the official 5 years, their promotion prospects – the ability to show results from their leadership –are quite short. The incentive to make an impression on immediate superiors in the short-term (2 or 3 years) is strong. This short time horizon in and of itself is a problem when technological innovations may require a longer term to come to fruition, especially when commitments to innovation projects are being used by a particular leader to demonstrate political results.48 On the relationship between cadres’ performance and the criteria for career advancement, see Mei (2009), Landry (2008) and Li and Zhou (2005). 46 The implication is that local officials can feel more emboldened in carrying out localized interests as long as they can plausibly be argued to be aligned with central interests. Not all local officials are subject to promotion, and some remain in the same locale for long periods. In this situation, two other, complementary, views of how local officials work to align interests with the center are useful: Kostka and Hobbs (2012) on “interest bundling”; and Ahlers and Schubert (2009) on “strategic groups.” Similarly, Chen Jinjin (2011, 5082) argues that “some local governments believe that only through deviations from the central directives can economic growth be achieved. . .” 47 Chinese local officials are not the only local officials with short time horizons. Two year election cycles for the US Congress shorten representatives’ time horizons as well. However, Chinese style industrial policy, a mainstay of the PRC’s policy instruments for investment in key policies, is intended to work over a much longer time horizon than is practical for most local officials. 48 According to Landry (2008), while the formal term of mayors is five years, the average duration of Chinese mayors’ terms in 2000 was 2.2 years, even though the formal term is 5 years. It is also the case that heads of SOEs, themselves subject to the nomenklatura system, also have a short time horizon that may be contrary to investment in innovation activities. 45 20 How might local officials demonstrate short-term “innovation results” to superiors? The establishment of a HDTZ or the launch (and early success) of an innovative industry – particularly one that is the focus of national level policy, such as an SEI – can bring positive attention to officials who can claim responsibility. For example, snagging one of the 54 “national” label high-tech zones (as of 2011) would be a coup. A second marker is the ability for local firms to snag the designation of “National Key Lab,” suggesting that this firm has been singled out by the center for its innovation. Third, the potential to create jobs and local growth through the attraction of industries that can be labeled “innovative” also is a powerful incentive for local officials. (Dai 2015) Local government officials are well trained to jump onto this bandwagon, and even be seen as “ahead of the curve.” Jiangsu Province attempted to get a head start on the competition in terms of its reputation as an innovative region. Whereas the central government set the goal that China should be an “innovative country” by 2020, Jiangsu set the provincial goal at 2015. Similarly, in response to the central government’s emphasis in 2009 on SEIs, governments from some cities proposed they would carry out “100 major projects” related to SEIs during each year of the 12th FYP. (Liu and Chen 2012). Such goal-setting compels governments to meet the numeric goal regardless of the quality of projects. These dynamics were evident in Wuxi, where the ability of entrepreneurial officials to attract and support Suntech, and create a local value chain, led it to promote the “Wuxi” model. The multiplier effect of a solar industry value chain centered around Suntech held tremendous value not only for Wuxi but for Jiangsu province as a whole. According to Suntech’s founder Shi Zhengrong, the Jiangsu PV industry can be valued at 200 billion RMB, and employs 170,000 local workers. Such enticements would be attractive to any local leader in any country.49 In addition, the Wuxi mayor, prior to the collapse of the PV export market, was able to leverage this and other “pro-innovation” activities into a promotion to Jiangsu party secretary. Even if not achieving the notoriety 49 In the US, the Obama administration has often pointed to the desirability of developing green technology as a jobs stimulus. However, green technology has created relatively few jobs. Indeed, although statistical categories are rather fuzzy, it would appear that the post-2008 emphasis on green technology, while producing payoffs in energy conversion, have created virtually no new jobs. (Johnson 2013) 21 of Wuxi, this dynamic is repeated in localities across China. By showing support for an innovation project, a local government increases its prospects of gaining coveted central governmental “support” – as in the case of Shenzhen’s (BYD) and Hangzhou (Kandi), noted above – or gaining attention as an experimental site (shidian). This dynamic may be even more accentuated outside of major cities, where officials strive to compete with more developed locales. In pursuit of a chunk of the low-speed EV industry, officials in small cities with access to rural markets have set up many “new energy automotive industry parks,” and contributed millions of yuan in funds to support investment, and many acres of land.50 Being designated a model city by the center is itself a signal that may encourage other firms to invest in its jurisdiction – it helps the city to create an innovation “brand.” Baoding City (Hebei) leveraged early successes in promoting solar technology firms into its label as a “Green City,” despite having horrendous air quality. Indeed, these green energy successes were likely a result of earlier efforts by key leaders in Baoding, including the mayor, in leveraging central funds as well as local human capital to build “Baoding Electronics Valley.”51 And Baoding has in fact been home to successful “green” industries, notably Yingli Solar. Model status can allow local leaders to gain access to additional central government resources (such as from NDRC and the Ministry of Finance, or for low interest loans from the China Development Bank), as well as foreign investment. At the same time, to the extent that leaders need quick payoffs from an industry or firm they support, that can lead them to construct financing mechanisms that require quick pay-outs – something also potentially distortive of a firm’s rational growth. This criticism has been made of the implementation of the Torch program and establishment of HTDZs by local governments; funding went to mature technologies that could be rolled out to 50 As recently as May, 2014, Linfen government in Shanxi agreed with Mei Year Group to invest 14.8 billion yuan (US$2.3 billion) to build a new energy automotive industrial park. (Linfen has the informal designation of China’s most polluted city.) Similar investments in such parks also were planned in Inner Mongolia, Luoyang, Ningbo, Changde, and Guizhou. “Dīsù diàndòng chē jù zī háodǔ xīn néngyuán qìchē chǎnyè yuán” [“Low-speed electric vehicles heavily gamble new energy automotive industry park."] 21 Shìjì jīngjì bàodào [21st Century Business Herald] October 15, 2014.,http://auto.cnr.cn/qczcjj/201410/t20141015_516598395.shtml . 51 Similarly, Baoding government responded quickly to the central government’s signals to promote rapid expansion of wind power firms. 22 market quickly, but were not often very “high-tech” or very “innovative.” (Breznitz and Murphree 2011, 77-8) Jiangxi’s LDK Solar faced this issue with the financial support it got from the local (city) government: if the firm did not pay out profits and reimburse the government within a short period of time, then the cost of the capital would be increased.52 While these behaviors have led to some positive results, in other cases they have created political failures, including wasted and duplicative investment (with attendant opportunity costs of capital), shady land deals, corruption, and other ills. The desirability of being seen as responsive to central signals and help build the local brand often leads to a shallow or even a “false” response. And the competition to gain the “doorplate” label of, e.g., “Green City,” has often led local officials to act with great alacrity. This is especially true with the contributions of land, which in capital-short areas in particular have been a major form of contribution by local governments to industrial innovation. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, funds flowed quickly from the central government to localities. Indeed, such funds created the first real push in favor of SEIs since the program was announced in 2006. Localities that suddenly had reason to hope for a flood of central funds had to find where to quickly spend them, and too often the use of SEI categories such as the “internet of things” was the excuse to set up new development parks that supposedly focused on such high-tech industries. Instead, however, the result was simply new, often empty, office parks and other industrial real estate projects. This problem was frequently observed in Wuxi; one example is the “Internet of Things Office Park,” a real estate development project, sponsored by Wuxi government.53 BYD provides a related example of wasted effort. Local governments in which BYD invested outside Shenzhen attempted to create additional favorable conditions for electric car sales in the form of setting up charging stations. However, once a few stations had been set up – enough to demonstrate political support of electric vehicles but not enough to spur consumer demand in any meaningful way – local leaders are said to have lost “PV Impulse.” Jiangxi’s interest in LDK was in part because it is an SEI, but not so much due to its innovation potential. 53 The son of a high ranking official who runs an RFID consortium was likely instrumental in bringing these funds to Wuxi. 52 23 their interest and moved on to line up behind other projects.54 The provision of charging stations is a major hurdle for EV firms, especially in space-deprived first-tier cities (a problem not just in China). A contribution by government is to convert city-controlled land to charging stations.55 The point is not that local governments have created the charging hurdle but, rather, that they have been unable – despite major efforts – to ameliorate it. A similar dynamic surrounds “National Key Labs.” In firm visits, managers touted they had received the designation, but there was not evidence of significant activity going on in the lab. This was the case, for example, in the wind turbine sector, at Guodian Wind Turbine (Baoding). A tour of the key lab – welladvertised on plates but kept behind locked doors - revealed broken equipment, and virtually to no activity. Similarly, Yingli Solar in Baoding showed that it had designations for a “State Key Lab of Photovoltaic Materials and Technology” (2010) and “State Key Lab of National Energy Photovoltaic Technology” (2011), yet little obvious evidence of outputs ongoing from these labs.56 Two issues should be emphasized. First, the dynamic in which local officials are incentivized to respond to central signals and the resulting effort to create a “brand” for a locality – in order to bring in other cognate industries – has not always served to create a negative environment for firms in industries picked by the center for growth and innovation. Baoding is often pointed to as a positive example. However, that local government involvement is dominated by these incentives, and evidence of wasted efforts and establishment of firms that are not successful, much less innovative, is problematic. Hence, the longstanding criticism (within China) that the Chinese system’s propensity to incentivize wasteful investment is repeated in the clean energy sector. Second, it is clear that local governments are keen for market entry of new firms, as symbols of and perhaps Compounding the likelihood that the establishment of charging stations would be a “political task” was the fact that there was no clear business model for them, such that the business sector was unlikely to take on the problem. (“BYD Leverages” 2010) 55 Consumers are reluctant to buy EV sedans if they do not have convenient mechanisms for charging them. Provision of charging stations has been taken on as a public good in other economies, including in the US, as market actors have been unsure of the economics of this service beyond at-home plug in connection. Without out-of-home stations, consumers are often reluctant to invest in pure EVs, especially given the price premium, and government efforts to prop up demand have not worked well as of yet. This dynamic is one reason e-taxis have been an obvious industry for local governments to support (despite its own problems surrounding the need for daytime charging). 56 This does not mean Yingli has not shown innovative capacity; rather, the point is that the key labs designation may not be very relevant, hence “wasteful.” 54 24 the reality of growth. Yet, as examples below will further illustrate, local governments are not keen to allow market exit of local firms, especially those that they have supported with funds in the past. Protectionism, Fragmentation, and Stovepiping While we can observe successful examples of local government generated coordination (e.g., Suntech in its heyday), local politics in China is often characterized by three interrelated factors that run counter to coordination: protectionism, fragmentation and stovepiping.57 Competition between regions to attract firms for local development has been intense through the reform era, and continues to result in efforts to gain advantages.58 Indeed, China’s nascent post-Mao market economy was marked by significant local protectionism (Wedeman 2003; Cai 2004; Bai et al 2004). To this day, local government officials remain willing and able to try to sustain local advantage. Despite much progress in the development of national markets, and central government efforts to rein in local protectionism, local officials often continue to erect internal market barriers. Firms are often complicit. BYD’s reliance on local government jurisdictions to purchase electric vehicles provides a good illustration of the impact of local protectionism. Local governments can often be relied upon to provide a demand pull for new technologies. To this end, several subnational governments, including Shenzhen (the BYD headquarters), Tianjin, Xian, Yunnan, Changsha, and Chengdu, agreed to buy BYD vehicles for their municipal fleets. But these local officials would only purchase if from a “local” company. BYD therefore had to invest in local outlets in order to make these sales as a political rather than a business strategy decision. Local officials could then claim these investments as their own “pro-innovation” industries, demonstrating their responsiveness to Beijing’s signal. More broadly, governments in the “Ten Cities” EV pilot often have endeavored to protect their own local auto companies. Most of these cities allowed just two auto 57 These factors are not unique to China. But I argue they are more severe, and are overcome with greater difficulty, in the Chinese context. 58 Many scholars attribute this competition, and efforts to gain local notoriety through protectionism, as a function (at least in part) of the aforementioned cadre promotion system. On inter-jurisdictional competition, see Lü and Landry (2014). 25 companies to sell EVs, with one of these firms being a local company.59 Even when the NDRC directed that these cities needed to allow 30% of sales from other provinces, the province seeking protection would make a deal with another province that the whole of that outside 30% would come only from that other locality. Local governments often subsidize more generously purchases of EVs from local auto firms. Fragmentation between actors within a jurisdiction also can have deleterious effects on coordination. Multiple funding sources at the central and provincial levels may be used for local innovation projects – such as from NDRC, Ministry of Finance, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and MOST and their local branches – yet these sources often are poorly coordinated. Thus, local efforts to snag resources and then show results from the investment often mean not just competition between local projects, but also wasteful duplicative investment sponsored by different agencies within a location. Particularly in an environment where market exit is discouraged by local governments as a sign of political failure, duplicative investment can be presumed to be especially harmful. Recent efforts to criticize and eliminate overexpansion of technology parks, particularly those related to the SEI industry of cloud computing, reflect recognition of this problem by the center.60 Yet as long as local bureaus of national ministries are more likely to serve horizontal interests than their vertical masters, the problem will remain. (OECD 2008, p. 363-4) Related to the stovepiping of the local bureaucracy is that each bureaucracy within a local jurisdiction may feel compelled to respond to the center’s signal, exacerbating wasteful duplication. Indeed, even SASAC has taken on the mantle of promoting S & T at the local level. (Naughton 2012) Duplication of efforts is not the only problem to grow out of fragmentation and stovepiping; such a structure creates barriers to diffusion of technology that is seen as crucial to creating effective innovative “clusters.” (OECD 2007, 41) Also detrimental is the stifling of development of national The cities with existing strong auto firms – such Shenzhen and Shanghai – often were chosen by MOST as pilot cities. This choice has the obvious advantage of placing resources where infrastructure already exists (a hallmark of China’s experimentation policy). But local firms, especially when owned by the local government, also may be better equipped to benefit from local protectionism. 60 There have been multiple campaigns to avoid wasteful investment by local governments and firms, such as in iron and steel, and real estate development. Yet these campaigns often are in a “macro-retrenchment” environment, whereas it seems projects tied to the “innovation” silo may be protected from such campaigns. 59 26 standards for new industries. As local governments focus on developing standards that benefit their own specific location, and local companies, rather than working toward national (or even international) standards. Similarly, while the development of locallyoriented technologies is rational from one perspective, it can hinder the development of a more robust national market.61 Chongqing municipality’s deployment of a fast-charging battery model - the only pilot city to do so – is a prime example. This model was based on the unique characteristics of proximity to the Three Gorges dam and relatively reliable power grid. A battery-swapping model a la Hangzhou and Shenzhen relies on relatively flat geography, and hence is not feasible in hilly Chongqing, whereas the energy supply intensity and reliability needed to make a fast-charge model succeed is not available elsewhere. (Marquis et al 2013) Local Governments as a Source of Sustainable Demand? Local firms have relied heavily on governments at all levels to help create or stimulate demand for new energy industries. Local governments often have been channels to promote central tax breaks and subsidies for consumer purchases in the solar, wind, and electric vehicle sectors.62 Local governments also have responded to Beijing’s directive to promote EVs in government procurement; in 2014, Beijing set a target for new government vehicle procurement (sedans and buses) to reach at least 30%. (Economy 2014) Beyond this promotion of national level policy, local governments have made supplemental efforts to develop local markets. A weak consumer market has led the central government to promote public demand by local governments as a major stimulus for EV sales. BYD’s aforementioned experience with various local government deals to purchase their electric vehicles illustrates local protectionism, but also exemplifies how new firms often rely on local governments to create a demand pull. Shenzhen municipality offered further support to BYD to overcome the huge marketdiffusion hurdle posed by the establishment of charging stations (discussed above), and this has become a core program of support for all major municipalities. In China, moreover, local government efforts to promote charging stations have run up against not Hangzhou’s battery switching model is more transferable. On tax supports in wind, see Lewis (2013, 56-7) and Gallagher (2014, ch. 4). Many central subsidies to consumers for the purchase of electric vehicles were eliminated in 2011. 61 62 27 only price and consumer anxiety but also against the power of electric grid monopolies. The provision of plug in electric stations is decided primarily by provincial offices of State Grid, and the grid company has been reluctant to make this investment.63 While government supports for the EV industry have led some companies to jump on the bandwagon, others have assessed the fact that the industry is extremely reliant on government support rather than market demand as reason to wait to enter the sector. Representatives of the private firm Chang Cheng (长城) Motor (Baoding) indicated that while they had explored entering the market (including with a failed cooperation scheme with a California battery company), they at least temporarily decided to hold back. They indicate that the market is not mature, that the push is completely led by the government, but with insufficient and unreliable financial supports. They reiterated the common complaint that there is poor interconnection with the grid and that there are insufficient charging stations. Chang Cheng has a stronger interest in hybrid technology, and its 200person “new energy team” has participated in studies with the central Ministry of Finance (though the firm ultimately withdrew). Problems with interconnection also have hindered China’s solar industry. Solar cell manufacturers large and small have been frustrated by efforts to sell electricity on the domestic grid. Local governments have contributed land and housing to huge but solar farms projects, many of which sit idle for reasons already discussed. But in addition, local governments have been unable to guarantee connectivity to the grid. Consumers have faced similar frustrations. Some consumers have invested in solar cells, partly spurred by the national “Golden Sun” and “Golden Rooftop” program subsides for installation of solar cells, and partly spurred by prospects of not only providing a source of power for their own use but also of selling the electricity they generate at home to the grid. Yet state power grid monopolies have been unwilling, despite directives from the regulator (China Electricity Regulatory Commission), to facilitate interconnection for The three main aspects of the provision of electric power – generation, dispatch, and grid interconnection – are all controlled in significant ways at the local level in China. For example, there are myriad local independent power producers (IPPs) that generate electricity, and dispatch is heavily localized. The 2002 breakup of State Power Corporation’s monopoly led to the regionalization of the grid. These features of the industry create an extra local dynamic to national efforts to develop clean electric power sources, as local business actors have an incentive to do what is in their interest with regard to the industry. Local governments must compete with these local business actors. See Huang and Taplin (2012). 63 28 households or solar farms without burdensome forecasts of generation and at a reasonable price.64 Local Governments as Financiers Successful entrepreneurs in solar and EV industries often cite the importance of local government financing. Yet two main problems with China’s model of local government support can be identified: the questionable ability of local governments to make wise investments in the absence of market based mechanisms, and the creation of firms dependent on government funding. Criticism of local governments’ failures to effectively “pick winners” is common in the Chinese press. Local government is on the front line of choosing which firms to reward, and yet there often is a structural expertise gap. Or where expertise does exist, such as in local S & T bureaus, these expert opinions must compete with other considerations, such as the need for quick returns by local officials who are seeking ways to respond to the center’s signals, as discussed previously. Political decisions often must substitute for market-based decisions as to worthy funding recipients. Well-functioning venture capital would act as a funnel, withdrawing funding from ventures that have failed to show promise (or live up to promise), while continuing funding for viable ventures. But there remains a gap in such market-based institutions in China. As noted, there has been a push to establish locally-capitalized venture capital firms to (help) fund innovative ideas. More market-based VC firms are generally uninterested in clean energy because there is not enough money to be made. Local VCs that have invested in clean energy have come under increased scrutiny for making poor decisions, being too closely tied to the government, and even helping to create too much government risk when they gain implicit government guarantees. Wuxi Venture Capital Fund, an integral part of the Wuxi “Model” has met criticism for failing to assemble a “professional team to carry out project selection, due diligence, post-monitoring, intellectual property investigations, business partner surveys, communications platform, and other procedures.” (He[a] 2006) Other “risk-reward” loan systems also exist, as in the case of 64 Beijing has largely ended subsidies for solar installation, in part in response to such waste. (Interview 612-2014, Beijing.) 29 the “gamble” (duì dǔ, 赌) agreement between solar firm Jiangxi LDK and “statebackground” lenders, in which the loans had to be repaid very quickly or else face extremely high interest rates. (“PV Impulse” 201265) At the same time, when local governments are faced with the prospect of a failure by a firm around which they have tried to create a “brand,” particularly when huge amounts of resources have been poured into not just the firm but also supportive supply industries, they may be tempted to throw good money after bad. Such is the case with Xinyu government in Jiangxi Province, the backer of LDK Solar. As with Wuxi’s Suntech adventure (though for different reasons), local officials have felt compelled to use government funds and help ensure the availability of funds from elsewhere (such as local banks) in order to bail out the firms.66 Thus, in light of this gap in expertise and market institutions to pick worthy “winners,” it is not surprising that local officials’ choices might then be made based on other considerations, such as political connections. Altogether, there remain a host of moral hazard problems. And, as w/ Xinyu LDK and Suntech, local governments have been compelled to bail out firms so as not to shoulder a black mark to its brand. A second problem with the model of financial support is its impact on industry. Rather than spurring innovative industries such support seems to promote waste. The solar panel industry is perhaps the most well-known example. Many local governments saw export of solar panels as a lucrative business, and so – responding to international market demand and drawing on national policy incentives – too many localities invested in solar cell production, creating a glut on the international market, and helping precipitate a collapse of that market.67 Yet extensive government supports also have created a tendency for firms to depend on government supports, and to use this support to go in business directions they might better have avoided. LDK Solar, given extensive support from the entrepreneurial Xinyu government, made aggressive forays into ancillary businesses, though as a family-run company it lacked expertise to do so. Similarly, BYD Auto expanded into the solar industry largely based on government supports. In the EV industry, two of the “10 Cities” pilot cities with little existing 65 See also http://money.163.com/12/0723/15/874080K500254O2B.html. Ibid. 67 As is well-known, other problems have beset the Chinese PV industry, including the global financial crisis and declines in PV prices, collapse of key international markets (notably Spain), and the international trade dispute surrounding allegations of “dumping” of Chinese solar cells in Western markets. 66 30 infrastructure in the auto industry (Xiangfan and Nantong) have been accused of strategies that focus on “receiving preferential policies and financial resources, as opposed to developing their EV adoption capability.” (Marquis et al, 2013) Reports of similar dynamics have appeared for clean energy sectors of wind, LEDs, and bioimass. (“PV Industry Incubators”) Interviewees have also suggested there is a class of smaller firms that have been established and remain in existence due solely to government IV. Conclusion The broad literature on innovation suggests that local governments in China have a potentially positive role to play in creating a favorable ecosystem for innovative firms through mechanisms such as coordination and funding. The influential position of local governments in the Chinese political system, including as a conduit for central “proinnovation” policy, reinforces that expectation. This role could be expected especially in clean energy industries, which have been given a high profile role in China’s planning process. It is evident from the previous discussion that innovation by firms does occur. Cost and process innovation results from deep competition among solar panel producers, many of whom survived the export industry shake-out. When firms have been able to draw on existing infrastructure and expertise in their location, they have moved forward, as has been the case with EV manufacturers Kandi in Zhejiang, Shifeng in Shandong, and to a lesser extent BYD in Guangdong. It also can be argued that local governments have contributed to some successes, at least initially, through use of traditional industrial policy tools. Subsidies (direct funds, tax breaks, preferential access to loans from state banks, contributions of land, etc.) appear to have helped some solar producers, such as Suntech and Yingli, get off the ground. More interestingly, local governments have protected firms that have chosen to innovate in ways to which Beijing has been unfriendly. Shifeng low speed autos benefited massively from the advocacy of the Shandong provincial government. As a result, innovation occurred at the low end of the market, and this segment is the most successful portion of China’s entire EV market. 31 Kandi (also benefiting from its partnership with Geely) sells more EVs in China than any other manufacturer. Perhaps one reason for the slow takeoff of new energy sedans was the focus on pure electric vehicles, and the desire to avoid hybrids (due to the need to purchase foreign IP). This choice was made by the central government, but local governments followed. (Tillemann 2014) In 2014, however, some EV firms have gone their own way on this issue as well; similar to the situation with low-speed vehicles, local governments have supported the development and sale of hybrids, particularly in Shanghai. (Wang Tao 2015) Moreover, local governments have continued to encourage firms continue to engage deeply with the global value chain as a consumer of foreign technology, instead of making serious attempts to reinvent an “indigenous” wheel. On the other side of the ledger, however, while local governments have created experimental sites and pushed the development of industries along, there are myriad examples in which local governments have failed to contribute to vibrant local innovative ecosystems. This paper has pointed to a number categories of governance deficiencies. The incentives for local officials to respond to central signals, but to do so “creatively” in a way to support their political needs for quick payoffs in terms of branding and employment, has been a major contributor to wasted, duplicative, and sometimes “false” investment. The problem of waste is exacerbated by incentives for local governments to prevent exit of unsuccessful firms if it means harm to employment. Moreover, local governments in China face difficulty providing effective coordination due to longstanding problems of protectionism, stovepiping and fragmentation. Protectionism in turn harms efforts at standardization for a national market, such as when EV pilots have been encouraged to suit local conditions.68 Reliance on government demand (for EV sedans) has been unable to ameliorate the basic problem of market failure the efforts were intended to address. From the financial side, reliance on local governments to make sound investment decisions when private financing does not exist means officials have often lacked adequate signals about the quality of projects. Thus, incentives for local governments – a mixture of incentives to align with the center but also create their own image as innovative locations – too often block the creation of an environment in which 68 This has not been a problem in the solar panel sector, where technology is relatively standardized. 32 state-supported innovation can happen. Waste and the intolerance of firm failure and the consequences for market exit are particularly pernicious problems. In this context, some firms, as in the solar panel sector, have simply never become viable market actors apparently in part due to their expectations that government supports will continue, a phenomenon that cannot help the center’s innovation visions. In the EV sector, despite some obvious innovation at the low end of the market, and facing many of the same technical barriers this industry confronts around the world, all the supports and subsidies has not met the goals for sales set by Beijing’s industrial policy. Beijing acknowledged that, as of September 2014, China had met only 12% of its target for alternative-energy vehicles to be introduced by 2015.69 One study calculates that of all the cars produced in 2013 (the world’s largest auto producer), only .008% were high-way ready passenger vehicles. (Most of these were purchases by taxi and bus companies.) (Altenberg et al, 2015) Outside of the low-speed category (such as produced by Kandi and Shifeng), most sales were to local governments; 80% of new energy vehicles sales are in the public fleet, indicating failure thus far in the transformation from state support to a consumer market. (Howell et al, 2014) Although in the past few months the picture on sales has appeared brighter due to greater toleran of hybrids (Wang 2015), in general Chinese industrial policy on EVs has been unable to move the market for EVs forward on a par achieved by, for example, many European countries and California. (Mock and Yang, 2014) What can we conclude about the role of local government in these sectors? First, it is important to reiterate that it remains incumbent on local officials in China to play a role in potential economic development schemes, such as SEI industries. Especially when the signals from Beijing that industrial policy should be pursued, local officials cannot sit idly by and allow markets to work things out (even if private firms such as Chang Cheng Auto can). And yet the ability of local governments to respond to Beijing’s signals in a positive and conforming way has been shown here to be largely a function of industry and market conditions. In short, the interaction of the two categories of variables denoted in the introduction – industry characteristics and the strength and nature “China Offers Billions to Subsidize Electric Cars on Gas,” Bloomberg News, December 10, 2014. On China facing the same barriers as those encountered worldwide, such as high battery costs and generally high costs relative to combustion engines, see Bernstein 2013. 69 33 of Beijing’s signals - has affected the development of the two industries considered in this paper. A simple taxonomy helps to illustrate this relationship. Industry structure (high barriers to entry, strong incumbents, large-scale cognate industries) yes no strong EV sedans (pure electric) Moderate weak EV hybrids (post 2015) (locals pursue despite signals) Solar panels (lower priority signaled than EV sedans) Low-speed EV, electric bikes Need to respond to central signals (high priority of center) This taxonomy perhaps contains an (intuitive) endogeneity, namely, that large incumbents (e.g., auto producers) are likely to be favored in Beijing’s policy signals – as makes sense if we conceive of new energy policy as being largely about industrial policy. Local governments are likely to be more creative, as in the case of low-speed EVs, or to sponsor rapid market entry (as in EVs) where the signal from Beijing is not particularly strong. This may be create a context in which cost-innovation, and serving the low-end of the market, is most vibrant. On the other hand, we see a less innovative environment where barriers to market access are high and Beijing’s signals are strong. We cannot say this is the result primarily of local government; in the case of EV sedans, the problems China faces are the same as elsewhere in the world. However, local government efforts, particularly to create market demand through government purchases or to compete to produce standards that will not become national standards, do not help overcome these problems. Note that the taxonomy ignores (perhaps mistakenly) the role of firm and industry ties to global markets. In conclusion, then, when has local government involvement proven most helpful in the specific cases considered in this paper? When local market infrastructure and 34 conditions are favorable, especially where existing technology and value chains permit firms to serve the low end segment of the market, local governments have been instrumental. With low barriers to entry and extant industrial infrastructure, provincial and municipal officials have supported market entry by local firms, and presumably have gained some political benefits – employment, growth – for themselves. This dynamic was evident in the low-speed EV industry. Kandi, under the rubric of the 10 Cities pilot program and the help of Zhejiang and Hangzhou (and eventually Shanghai), and Shifeng, under the protection of Shandong government. Kandi in particular has engaged in business process innovation, with battery switching and rental models that grew out of Hangzhou’s previous experiences with bicycles. (Though not explored in this paper, the story may be similar in EV bicycles.) Early on in its development, China’s solar panel industry – also facing low barriers to entry and the absence of massive incumbents – in some cases appears to have benefited from local government help, especially in the form of subsidies, government facilitation of financing schemes, and contributions of land. When government behavior in the solar panel industry (as with low speed EVs) could support an existing market, i.e., be market conforming, local officials appeared helpful. Yet once the export market collapsed, and NDRC supported an end to many supports of solar firms (by limiting bank loans), local officials in some cases were reluctant to allow firms they had supported to fail, i.e., to allow market exit. In the higher end segment of the EV market, for sedans and buses, we have seen strong signals from Beijing – as in the 10 Cities pilot program - and efforts by local governments to respond. Yet efforts by local officials have been much less successful. In this segment, the technological barriers to entry by firms are high, and the sector is dominated by incumbents (such as BYD). Consumer demand is low, due to high costs and relatively poor quality compared to combustion engine sedans. Governments have not only provided supply side support through subsidies and contributions of land and loans, but also have made extensive attempts to stimulate the market through industrial policy tools on the demand side, in the form of major consumer subsidies from central and local governments, government procurement, and government support of infrastructure (in terms of charging stations). Despite these efforts to conform to 35 industrial policy signals – efforts that merely by virtue of being made can have political payoffs for local officials - the market has remained moribund.70 Indeed, local government behaviors have exacerbated problems long criticized by Beijing (even if caused by some of its policies): duplication of investment and local protectionism that hinders the growth of a more integrated national market. In the EV case, efforts by local governments to create a market, and thereby ameliorate market failure, could not succeed due to industry and market conditions (lack of access to technology, high cost relative to where market demand lies) not found uniquely in China but perhaps more difficult to overcome there. Some observers point out that local entrepreneurs are complicit in these failures. Local entrepreneurs, even if not parasites on government funding, often seek to exploit the funds available only through local governments (available only through local governments because that is how central support funding flows, and due to the absence of private capital). Indeed, some critics of Suntech’s failure do not single out Wuxi’s government as the problem but, rather, its founder Shi Zhengrong. Similarly there is equal criticism handed out to LDK’s founder Peng Xiaofeng and the Xinyu government. It is clear there is a symbiotic relationship between entrepreneurs and local governments. Others have suggested that the quality of local leadership is extremely important; Baoding possessed quite impressive leadership that created a better ecosystem, whereas Xinyu (in its treatment of LDK) did not. Moreover, many problems– such as the difficulty in generating consumer-driven markets for new energy – are far from unique to China, though in some respects (e.g., problems related to grid interconnection and the existence or private financing to substitute for local government financing) may be felt more intensively there. There are, then, many fingers to be pointed when looking to problems in the local ecosystem for innovation and upgrading (or even basic firm success) in clean technologies. Perhaps the most pertinent issue is that some sectors remain dominated by industrial policy concerns –seen especially in the EV sector – making Beijing just as complicit as the local government officials who respond to its signals. The previous discussion indicates that A comparison of problems in China’s EV market with more successful cases of Japan, and Korea is Tillemann (2015). 70 36 China’s industrial policy approach to the promotion of new energy and sustainability, and the intensive role played by local governments in this institutional structure, does not solve the problems of market failure. Local government’s deep involvement has not been able to correct for market failures in solar (in which failure is largely due to exogenous demand forces that forced local producers to try to create domestic demand) and EVs (where other barriers such as price and grid problems create little organic market demand). At the same time, local governments have participated in the political failures that have in turn have to tremendous waste (the pressure to create “false brands” and difficulties tolerating market exit) and to problems of developing a national market (local protectionism and an insufficient grid network). 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