Topicality
Topicality 1NC- Oceans
A. Interpretation- the Earth’s Oceans are the 5 major oceans
NALMS 14 – North American Lake Management Society, “WATER WORDS GLOSSARY”,
http://www.nalms.org/home/publications/water-words-glossary/O.cmsx
OCEAN
Generally, the whole body of salt water which covers nearly three fourths of the surface of the globe.
The average depth of the ocean is estimated to be about 13,000 feet (3,960 meters); the greatest
reported depth is 34,218 feet (10,430 meters), north of Mindanao in the Western Pacific Ocean. The
ocean bottom is a generally level or gently undulating plain, covered with a fine red or gray clay, or, in
certain regions, with ooze of organic origin. The water, whose composition is fairly constant, contains on
the average 3 percent of dissolved salts; of this solid portion, common salt forms about 78 percent,
magnesium salts 15-16 percent, calcium salts 4 percent, with smaller amounts of various other
substances. The density of ocean water is about 1.026 (relative to distilled water, or pure H2O). The
oceans are divided into the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic, and Antarctic Oceans.
And, the federal government is the central government, distinguished from the states
OED 89 (Oxford English Dictionary, 2ed. XIX, p. 795)
b. Of or pertaining to the political unity so constituted, as distinguished from the separate states
composing it.
B. Violation- the IOOS is not limited to USFG action- it includes state, regional, and
private sectors
IOOS report to congress 13 [Official US IOOS report sent to congress. 2013, “U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) 2013
Report to Congress,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/about/governance/ioos_report_congress2013.pdf //jweideman]
U.S. IOOS works with its eyes on the future. The successes of U.S. IOOS are achieved through cooperation and
coordination among Federal agencies, U.S. IOOS Regional Associations, State and regional agencies, and the private
sector. This cooperation and coordination requires a sound governance and management structure. In 2011 and 2012, program milestones
called for in U.S. IOOS legislation were achieved, laying the groundwork for more success in the future. First, the U.S. IOOS Advisory Committee
was established. Second, the Independent Cost Estimate was delivered to Congress. As part of the estimate, each of the 11 U.S. IOOS Regional
Associations completed 10-year build-out plans, describing services and products to address local user needs and outlining key assets required
to meet the Nation’s greater ocean-observing needs.
And, the IOOS also applies to the Great Lakes
NOS and NOAA 14 [Federal Agency Name(s): National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department
of Commerce Funding Opportunity Title: FY2014 Marine Sensor and Other Advanced Observing Technologies Transition Project. “ANNOUNCEMENT OF FEDERAL
FUNDING OPPORTUNITY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdf //jweideman]
1. Marine Sensor Transition Topic: U.S.
IOOS seeks to increase the rate that new or existing marine sensor technologies are
transitioned into operations mode in order to facilitate the efficient collection of ocean, coastal and Great Lakes observations. The
Marine Sensor Transition topic is focused on transitioning marine sensors from research to operations mode to meet the demonstrated
operational needs of end-users. Letters of Intent (LOIs) are being solicited for this topic with particular emphasis on a) projects
comprised of multi-sector teams of partners, b) projects that will meet the demonstrated operational needs of end-users, and c) sensors that
are at or above TRL 6. Applicants with sensors for ocean acidification that are at or above TRL 6 are also eligible to apply to this topic if they
have strong commitments for operational transition
C. Voting issue for fairness and ground- extra topicality forces the neg to waste
time debating T just to get back to square one, and it allows the aff to gain
extra advantages, counterplan answers, and link turns to disads
2NC Impact-Education
Definitions are key to education about IOOS
IOOS report to congress 13 [Official US IOOS report sent to congress. 2013, “U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) 2013 Report to
Congress,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/about/governance/ioos_report_congress2013.pdf //jweideman]
The use of standard terms or vocabularies to describe ocean observations data is critical to facilitating
broad sharing and integration of data. Working closely SECOORA and the community-based Marine Metadata Interoperability
Project, U.S. IOOS has published nine recommended vocabularies over the past 12 months for review by the ocean
observing community including lists for platforms, parameters, core variables, and biological terms. These efforts are helping lead the ocean
observing community towards significantly improved levels of consistency via an improved semantic framework through
which users can adopt recommended vocabularies or convert their vocabularies to terms that are
perhaps used more widely.
2NC Cards- Oceans
IOOS includes monitoring the Great Lakes
IOOS report to congress 13 [Official US IOOS report sent to congress. 2013, “U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) 2013 Report to
Congress,” http://www.oos.noaa.gov/about/governance/ioos_report_congress2013.pdf //jweideman]
The IOOC recognizes that U.S. IOOS must be responsive to environmental crises while maintaining the regular
long-term ocean observation infrastructure required to support operational oceanography and climate
research. As a source of our Nation’s ocean data and products, U.S. IOOS often serves as a resource for the
development of targeted applications for a specific location or sector. At the same time, U.S. IOOS organizes
data from across regions and sectors to foster the national and international application of local data and
products broadly across oceans, coasts, and Great Lakes. Events over the last few years, including
Hurricane Sandy and the Deep Water Horizon oil spill have awakened U.S. communities to the value and
necessity of timely ocean information. IOOC commends U.S. IOOS for responsive and capable support to
the Nation in these events in addition to diverse everyday support to the Nation’s maritime economy.
We have much more work to do to build and organize the ocean-observing infrastructure of the Nateion and look forward to wrking with
congress on this continuing challenge.
Ocean exploration is distinct from Great Lakes observation
COR 01 ~ Committee On Resources, “OCEAN EXPLORATION AND COASTAL AND OCEAN OBSERVING
SYSTEMS”, Science Serial No. 107–26 Resources Serial No. 107–47, Accessed 7/3/14 //RJ
On a summer day, our eyes and ears can sense an approaching thunderstorm. Our senses are extended
by radar and satellites to detect advancing storm systems. Our senses are being extended yet again to
anticipate changing states affecting coasts and oceans, our environment, and our climate. To truly
understand the con- sequences of our actions on the environment and the environment’s impact on
us, data obtained through ocean exploration, coastal observations , and ocean observa- tions will be
critical.
‘‘Coastal observations’’ include observations in the Nation’s ports, bays, estuaries, Great
Lakes, the waters of the EEZ, and adjacent land cover . Some of the properties measured in coastal
zones, such as temperature and currents, are the same as those measured in the larger, basin-scale
ocean observation systems. However, the users and applications of those data can be quite different.
For those properties that are similar, there should be a consistent plan for deployment in the coastal
and open ocean systems so that coastal observations represent a nested hierarchy of observa- tions
collected at higher resolution than those from the open ocean.
“Oceans” are only the 5 major bodies of water – landlocked and adjacent lakes and
rivers are excluded.
Rosenberg 14 ~ Matt Rosenberg, Master's in Geography from CSU, “Names for Water Bodies”,
http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/waterbodies.htm, accessed 7/3/14 //RJ
Water bodies are described by a plethora of different names in English - rivers, streams, ponds, bays,
gulfs, and seas, to name a few. Many of these terms' definitions overlap and thus become confusing
when one attempts to pigeon-hole a type of water body. Read on to find out the similarities (and
differences) between terms used to describe water bodies.
We'll begin with the different forms of flowing water. The smallest water channels are often called
brooks but creeks are often larger than brooks but may either be permanent or intermittent. Creeks are
also sometimes known as streams but the word stream is quite a generic term for any body of flowing
water. Streams can be intermittent or permanent and can be on the surface of the earth, underground,
or even within an ocean (such as the Gulf Stream).
A river is a large stream that flows over land. It is often a perennial water body and usually flows in a
specific channel, with a considerable volume of water. The world's shortest river, the D River, in Oregon,
is only 120 feet long and connects Devil's Lake directly to the Pacific Ocean.
A pond is a small lake, most often in a natural depression. Like a stream, the word lake is quite a generic
term - it refers to any accumulation of water surrounded by land - although it is often of a considerable
size. A very large lake that contains salt water, is known as a sea (except the Sea of Galilee, which is
actually a freshwater lake).
A sea can also be attached to, or even part of, an ocean. For example, the Caspian Sea is a large saline
lake surrounded by land, the Mediterranean Sea is attached to the Atlantic Ocean, and the Sargasso Sea
is a portion of the Atlantic Ocean, surrounded by water.
Oceans are the ultimate bodies of water and refers to the five oceans - Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic,
Indian, and Southern . The equator divides the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Oceans into the North and
South Atlantic Ocean and the North and South Pacific Ocean.
The plan explodes ground- includes the great lakes
NOS and NOAA 14 [Federal Agency Name(s): National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of
Commerce Funding Opportunity Title: FY2014 Marine Sensor and Other Advanced Observing Technologies Transition Project. “ANNOUNCEMENT OF FEDERAL
FUNDING OPPORTUNITY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdf //jweideman]
1. Marine Sensor Transition Topic: U.S.
IOOS seeks to increase the rate that new or existing marine sensor technologies are
transitioned into operations mode in order to facilitate the efficient collection of ocean, coastal and Great Lakes observations. The
Marine Sensor Transition topic is focused on transitioning marine sensors from research to operations mode to meet the demonstrated
operational needs of end-users. Letters of Intent (LOIs) are being solicited for this topic with particular emphasis on a) projects
comprised of multi-sector teams of partners, b) projects that will meet the demonstrated operational needs of end-users, and c) sensors that
are at or above TRL 6. Applicants with sensors for ocean acidification that are at or above TRL 6 are also eligible to apply to this topic if they
have strong commitments for operational transition
2NC Cards- USFG
The data sharing components are the critical part of IOOS- they cant say they just
don’t do the extra-topical parts
IOOS report to congress 13 [Official US IOOS report sent to congress. 2013, “U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) 2013
Report to Congress,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/about/governance/ioos_report_congress2013.pdf //jweideman]
Observations are of little value if they cannot be found, accessed, and transformed into useful products.
The U.S. IOOS Data Management and Communications subsystem, or “DMAC,” is the central operational
infrastructure for assessing, disseminating, and integrating existing and future ocean observations data.
As a core functional component for U.S. IOOS, establishing DMAC capabilities continues to be a principal
focus for the program and a primary responsibility of the U.S. IOOS Program Office in NOAA. Importance and
Objectives of DMAC Although DMAC implementation remains a work in progress, a fully implemented DMAC
subsystem will be capable of delivering real-time, delayed-mode, and historical data. The data will
include in situ and remotely sensed physical, chemical, and biological observations as well as modelgenerated outputs, including forecasts, to U.S. IOOS users and of delivering all forms of data to and from
secure archive facilities. Achieving this requires a governance framework for recommending and
promoting standards and policies to be implemented by data providers across the U.S. IOOS enterprise,
to provide seamless long-term preservation and reuse of data across regional and national boundaries and across disciplines. The governance
framework includes tools for data access, distribution, discovery, visualization, and analysis; standards for metadata, vocabularies, and quality
control and quality assurance; and procedures for the entire ocean data life cycle. The DMAC design must be responsive to user needs and it
must, at a minimum, make data and products discoverable and accessible, and provide essential metadata regarding sources, methods, and
quality. The overall DMAC objectives are for U.S. IOOS data providers to develop and maintain capabilities to: • Deliver
accurate and
timely ocean observations and model outputs to a range of consumers; including government,
academic, private sector users, and the general public; using specifications common across all providers
• Deploy the information system components (including infrastructure and relevant personnel) for full
life-cycle management of observations, from collection to product creation, public delivery, system documentation, and
archiving • Establish robust data exchange responsive to variable customer requirements as well as routine feedback, which is not tightly bound
to a specific application of the data or particular end-user decision support tool U.S.
IOOS daia providers therefore are being
the following DMAC- specific objectives: • A standards-based foundation for DMAC capabilities: U.S.
IOOS partners must clearly demonstrate how they will ensure the establishment and maintenance of a
standards- based approach for delivering their ocean observations data and associated products to users through local,
regional and global/international data networks • Exposure of and access to coastal ocean observations: U.S. IOOS partners must describe
how they will ensure coastal ocean observations are exposed to users via a service- oriented architecture
and recommended data services that will ensure increased data interoperability including the use of
improved metadata and uniform quality-control methods • Certification and governance of U.S. IOOS data and products:
encouraged lo address
U.S. IOOS partners must present a description of how they will participate in establishing an effective U.S. IOOS governance process for data
certification standards and compliance procedures. This objective is part of an overall accreditation process which includes the other U.S. IOOS
subsystems (observing, modeling and analysis, and governance)
“Federal Government” means the United States government
Black’s Law 99 (Dictionary, Seventh Edition, p.703)
The U.S. government—also termed national government
National government, not states or localities
Black’s Law 99 (Dictionary, Seventh Edition, p.703)
A national government that exercises some degree of control over smaller political units that have
surrendered some degree of power in exchange for the right to participate in national political matters
Central government
AHD 92 (American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, p. 647)
federal—3. Of or relating
to the central government of a federation as distinct from the governments of its member
units.
IOOS includes state, regional, and private sectors
IOOS report to congress 13 [Official US IOOS report sent to congress. 2013, “U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) 2013 Report to
Congress,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/about/governance/ioos_report_congress2013.pdf //jweideman]
U.S. IOOS works with its eyes on the future. The successes of U.S. IOOS are achieved through cooperation and
coordination among Federal agencies, U.S. IOOS Regional Associations, State and regional agencies, and the private
sector. This cooperation and coordination requires a sound governance and management structure. In 2011 and 2012, program milestones
called for in U.S. IOOS legislation were achieved, laying the groundwork for more success in the future. First, the \U.S. IOOS Advisory Committee
was established. Second, the Independent Cost Estimate was delivered to Congress. As part of the estimate, each of the 11 U.S. IOOS Regional
Associations completed 10-year build-out plans, describing services and products to address local user needs and outlining key assets required
to meet the Nation’s greater ocean-observing needs.
Disads
Politics
1NC – Politics Link
Causes fights – anti-environmentalism
Farr 2013
Sam, Member of the House of Representatives (D-CA) Chair of House Oceans Caucus, Review&Forecast
Collaboration Helps to Understand And Adapt to Ocean, Climate Changes http://seatechnology.com/pdf/st_0113.pdf
The past year in Washington, D.C., was rife with infighting between the two political parties. On issue after issue, the opposing sides were unable to reach a compromise on meaningful legislation for the American people. This division was most
noticeable when dis- cussing the fate of our oceans. The widening chasm between the two political
parties resulted in divergent paths for ocean policy: one with Presi- dent Barack Obama pushing the National
Ocean Policy forward, and the other with U.S. House Republicans under- mining those efforts with opposing
votes and funding cuts. Marine, Environmental Policy Regression The 112th Congress was called the "most antienviron- mental Congress in history" in a report published by House Democrats and has been credited for undermining the ma- jor
environmental legislation of the past 40 years. After the Tea Party landslide in the congressional elections of 2010,
conservatives on Capitol Hill began to flex their muscles to roll back environmental protections. Since taking
power in January 2011, House Republicans held roughly 300 votes to undermine basic environmental protections that have existed for decades.
To put that in per- spective, that was almost one in every five votes held in Congress during the past two years. These were votes to al- low
additional oil and gas drilling in coastal waters, while simultaneously limiting the environmental review process for offshore drilling sites. There
were repeal attempts to un- dermine the Clean Water Act and to roll back protections for threatened fish and other marine species. There
were also attempts to block measures to address climate changes, ig- noring the consequences of
inaction, such as sea level rise and ocean acidification.
2NC – Obama PC Link
Costs political capital, requires Obama to push
Farr 2013
Sam, Member of the House of Representatives (D-CA) Chair of House Oceans Caucus, Review&Forecast
Collaboration Helps to Understand And Adapt to Ocean, Climate Changes http://seatechnology.com/pdf/st_0113.pdf
Bui while the tide of sound ocean policy was retreating in Congress, it was rising on the other end of
Pennsylvania Avenue. The National Ocean Policy Understanding the need for a federal policy to address
the oceans after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, President Obama used an executive order in 2010 to
create the Na- tional Ocean Policy. Modeled after the Oceans-21 legisla- tion I championed in Congress,
this order meant that the U.S. would have a comprehensive plan to guide our stew- ardship of the
oceans, coasts and Great Lakes. Despite push back from the House of Representatives, the president
continued implementing his National Ocean Policy this past year through existing law, prioritizing ocean
stewardship and promoting interagency collaboration to ad- dress the challenges facing our marine
environment. For in- stance, the National Oceans Council created the www.data. gov/ocean portal,
which went live just before the start of 2012 and has grown throughout the year to provide access to
data and information about the oceans and coasts. The U.S. Geological Survey and other National Ocean
Council agencies have been working with federal and state partners to identify the data sets needed by
ocean users, such as fish- eries and living marine resources data, elevation and shore- line information,
and ocean observations.
2NC – NOAA Link
Congress hates increased funding for NOAA programs---the plan would be a fight
Andrew Jensen 12, Peninsula Clarion, Apr 27 2012, “Congress takes another ax to NOAA budget,”
http://peninsulaclarion.com/news/2012-04-27/congress-takes-another-ax-to-noaa-budget
Frustrated senators from coastal states are wielding the power of the purse to rein in the N ational O ceanic and
A tmospheric A dministration and refocus the agency's priorities on its core missions.¶ During recent appropriations subcommittee hearings April 17, Sen. Lisa Murkowski
ensured no funds would be provided in fiscal year 2013 for coastal marine spatial planning, a key component of
President Barack Obama's National Ocean Policy.¶ Murkowski also pushed for an additional $3 million for regional fishery management councils and secured $15 million for the Pacific Salmon
Treaty that was in line to be cut by NOAA's proposed budget (for $65 million total).¶ On April 24, the full Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Commerce Department budget with
language inserted by Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, into NOAA's budget that would transfer $119 million currently unrestricted funds and require they be used
for stock assessments, surveys and monitoring, cooperative research and fisheries grants.¶ The $119 million is derived from Saltonstall-Kennedy funds, which are levies collected on seafood
imports by the Department of Agriculture. Thirty percent of the import levies are transferred to NOAA annually, and without Kerry's language there are no restrictions on how NOAA may use
the funds.¶
In a Congress defined by fierce partisanship, no federal agency has drawn as much fire from
both parties as NOAA and its Administrator Jane Lubchenco.¶ Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., has repeatedly demanded accountability for NOAA Office of Law Enforcement
abuses uncovered by the Commerce Department Inspector General that included the use of fishermen's fines to purchase a luxury boat that was only used for joyriding around Puget Sound.¶
There is currently another Inspector General investigation under way into the regional fishery management council rulemaking process that was requested last August by Massachusetts Reps.
John Tierney and Barney Frank, both Democrats.¶ In July 2010, both Frank and Tierney called for Lubchenco to step down, a remarkable statement for members of Obama's party to make
about one of his top appointments.¶ Frank introduced companion legislation to Kerry's in the House earlier this year, where it should sail through in a body that has repeatedly stripped out
tens of millions in budget requests for catch share programs. Catch share programs are Lubchenco's favored policy for fisheries management and have been widely panned after
implementation in New England in 2010 resulted in massive consolidation of the groundfish catch onto the largest fishing vessels.¶ Another New England crisis this year with Gulf of Maine cod
also drove Kerry's action after a two-year old stock assessment was revised sharply downward and threatened to close down the fishery. Unlike many fisheries in Alaska such as pollock, crab
and halibut, there are not annual stock assessment surveys around the country.¶ Without a new stock assessment for Gulf of Maine cod, the 2013 season will be in jeopardy.¶ "I applaud
Senator Kerry for his leadership on this issue and for making sure that this funding is used for its intended purpose - to help the fishing industry, not to cover NOAA's administrative overhead,"
Frank said in a statement. "We are at a critical juncture at which we absolutely must provide more funding for cooperative fisheries science so we can base management policies on sound
data, and we should make good use of the world-class institutions in the Bay State which have special expertise in this area."¶ Alaska's Sen. Mark Begich and Murkowski, as well as Rep. Don
Young have also denounced the National Ocean Policy as particularly misguided, not only for diverting core funding in a time of tightening budgets but for creating a massive new bureaucracy
that threatens to overlap existing authorities for the regional fishery management councils and local governments.¶ The first 92 pages of the draft policy released Jan. 12 call for more than 50
actions, nine priorities, a new National Ocean Council, nine Regional Planning Bodies tasked with creating Coastal Marine Spatial Plans, several interagency committees and taskforces, pilot
projects, training in ecosystem-based management for federal employees, new water quality standards and the incorporation of the policy into regulatory and permitting decisions.¶ Some of
the action items call for the involvement of as many as 27 federal agencies. Another requires high-quality marine waters to be identified and new or modified water quality and monitoring
protocols to be established.¶ Young hosted a field hearing of the House Natural Resources Committee in Anchorage April 3 where he blasted the administration for refusing to explain exactly
how it is paying for implementing the National Ocean Policy.¶ "This National Ocean Policy is a bad idea," Young said. "It will create more uncertainty for businesses and will limit job growth. It
will also compound the potential for litigation by groups that oppose human activities. To make matters worse, the administration refuses to tell Congress how much money it will be diverting
from other uses to fund this new policy."¶ Natural Resources Committee Chairman Doc Hastings, R-Wash., sent a letter House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers asking that
every appropriations bill expressly prohibit any funds to be used for implementing the National Ocean Policy.¶ Another letter was sent April 12 to Rogers by more than 80 stakeholder groups
from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bering Sea echoing the call to ban all federal funds for use in the policy implementation.¶ "The risk of unintended economic and societal consequences remains
high, due in part to the unprecedented geographic scale under which the policy is to be established," the stakeholder letter states. "Concerns are further heightened because the policy has
already been cited as justification in a federal decision restricting access to certain areas for commercial activity."¶
million in budget requests for NOAA in fiscal year 2012
implementation policy in January anyway.
Congress refused to fund some $27
to implement the National Ocean Policy, but the administration released its draft
Russian Oil
Russian Oil DA 1NC
Russia’s economy is at a tipping point- its holding on because of oil
The economist 14 [The economist is an economic news source. May 3 2014,
“The crisis in Ukraine is hurting an already weakening economy” http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21601536-crisis-ukraine-hurtingalready-weakening-economy-tipping-scales //jweideman]
WESTERN measures against Russia—asset freezes and visa restrictions aimed at people and firms close
to Vladimir Putin—may be pinpricks, but the crisis in Ukraine has already taken its toll on Russia’s
economy and financial markets. Capital flight in the first three months of 2014 is thought to exceed $60 billion. The stockmarket is
down by 20% since the start of the year and the rouble has dropped by 8% against the dollar. Worries about the devaluation feeding
through to consumer prices have prompted the central bank to yank up interest rates, from 5.5% at the
start of March to 7.5%. The IMF reckons the economy is in recession; this week it cut its growth forecast for 2014 from 1.3% to 0.2%. Despite
these upsets, Russia appears to hold strong economic as well as military cards. It provides 24% of the
European Union’s gas and 30% of its oil. Its grip on Ukraine’s gas and oil consumption is tighter still. That
makes it hard for the West to design sanctions that do not backfire.
Satellite mapping finds oil- it increases production capabilities
Short 11 [Nicholas M. Short, Sr is a geologist who received degrees in that field from St. Louis University (B.S.), Washington University (M.A.), and the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Ph.D.); he also spent a year in graduate studies in the geosciences at The Pennsylvania State University. In his early postgraduate career, he worked for Gulf Research & Development Co., the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and the University of Houston. During the 1960s he
specialized in the effects of underground nuclear explosions and asteroidal impacts on rocks (shock metamorphism), and was one of the original Principal
Investigators of the Apollo 11 and 12 moon rocks. 2011, “Finding Oil and Gas from Space” https://apollomapping.com/wpcontent/user_uploads/2011/11/NASA_Remote_Sensing_Tutorial_Oil_and_Gas.pdf //jweideman]
If precious metals are not your forte, then try the petroleum industry. Exploration
for oil and gas has always depended on surface
maps of rock types and structures that point directly to, or at least hint at, subsurface conditions favorable to
accumulating oil and gas. Thus, looking at surfaces from satellites is a practical, cost-effective way to
produce appropriate maps. But verifying the presence of hydrocarbons below surface requires two
essential steps: 1) doing geophysical surveys; and 2) drilling into the subsurface to actually detect and
extract oil or gas or both. This Tutorial website sponsored by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists is a simplified summary of the basics of
hydrocarbon exploration. Oil and gas result from the decay of organisms - mostly marine plants (especially microscopic algae and similar free-floating vegetation)
and small animals such as fish - that are buried in muds that convert to shale. Heating through burial and pressure from the overlying later sediments help in the
process. (Coal forms from decay of buried plants that occur mainly in swamps and lagoons which are eventually buried by younger sediments.). The decaying liquids
and gases from petroleum source beds, dominantly shales after muds convert to hard rock, migrate from their sources to become trapped in a variety of structural
or stratigraphic conditions shown in this illustration:The oil and gas must migrate from deeper source beds into suitable reservoir rocks. These are usually porous
sandstones, but limestones with solution cavities and even fractured igneous or metamorphic rocks can contain openings into which the petroleum products
accumulate. An essential condition: the
reservoir rocks must be surrounded (at least above) by impermeable (refers
to minimal ability to allow flow through any openings - pores or fractures) rock, most commonly shales.
The oil and gas, generally confined under some pressure, will escape to the surface - either naturally when the trap is intersected by downward moving erosional
surfaces or by being penetrated by a drill. If pressure is high the oil and/or gas moves of its own accord to the surface but if pressure is initially low or drops over
time, pumping is required.
Exploration for new petroleum sources begins with a search for surface manifestations
of suitable traps (but many times these are hidden by burial and other factors govern the decision to explore). Mapping of surface
conditions begins with reconnaissance, and if that indicates the presence of hydrocarbons, then detailed
mapping begins. Originally, both of these maps required field work. Often, the mapping job became easier by using aerial photos. After the mapping, much
of the more intensive exploration depends on geophysical methods (principally, seismic) that can give 3-D constructions of subsurface structural and stratigraphic
traps for the hydrocarbons. Then, the potential traps are sampled by exploratory drilling and their properties measured. Remote
sensing from
satellites or aircraft strives to find one or more indicators of surface anomalies. This diagram sets the framework for the
approach used; this is the so-called microseepage model, which leads to specific geochemical anomalies:
New US oil production collapses Russia’s economy
Woodhill 14 [Louis, Contributor at forbes, entrepenour and investor. 3/3/14, “It's Time To Drive Russia Bankrupt – Again”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2014/03/03/its-time-to-drive-russia-bankrupt-again/ //jweideman]
The high oil prices of 1980 were not real, and Reagan knew it. They were being caused by the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which had lost 94%
of its value in terms of gold between 1969 and 1980. Reagan immediately decontrolled U.S. oil prices, to unleash the supply
side of the U.S. economy. Even more importantly, Reagan backed Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s campaign to strengthen and stabilize the
U.S. dollar. By the end of Reagan’s two terms in office, real oil prices had plunged to $27.88/bbl. As Russia
does today, the old USSR depended upon oil exports for most of its foreign exchange earnings, and
much of its government revenue. The 68% reduction in real oil prices during the Reagan years drove the
USSR bankrupt. In May 1990, Gorbachev called German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and begged him for a loan of $12 billion to stave off financial disaster. Kohl
advanced only $3 billion. By August of 1990, Gorbachev was back, pleading for more loans. In December 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. President
Bill Clinton’s “strong dollar” policy (implemented via Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Wayne Angell’s secret commodity price rule system) kept real oil prices low
At real oil price levels
like this, Russia is financially incapable of causing much trouble. It was George W. Bush and Barack
Obama’s feckless “weak dollar” policy that let the Russian geopolitical genie out of the bottle. From the end of
during the 1990s, despite rising world oil demand. Real crude oil prices during Clinton’s time in office averaged only $27.16/bbl.
2000 to the end of 2013, the gold value of the dollar fell by 77%, and real oil prices tripled, to $111.76/bbl. It is these artificially high oil prices that are fueling Putin’s
mischief machine. The
Russian government has approved a 2014 budget calling for revenues of $409.6 billion,
spending of $419.6 billion, and a deficit of $10.0 billion, or 0.4% of expected GDP of $2.5 trillion. Unlike
the U.S., which has deep financial markets and prints the world’s reserve currency, Russia cannot run
large fiscal deficits without creating hyperinflation. Given that Russia expects to get about half of its
revenue from taxes on its oil and gas industry, it is clear that it would not take much of a decline in
world oil prices to create financial difficulties for Russia. Assuming year-end 2013 prices for crude oil ($111.76/bbl) and natural gas
($66.00/FOE* bbl) the total revenue of Russia’s petroleum industry is $662.3 billion (26.5% of GDP), and Russian’s oil and gas export earnings are $362.2 billion, or
14.5% of GDP. Obviously,
a decline in world oil prices would cause the Russian economy and the Russian
government significant financial pain.
Nuclear war
Filger ‘9 [Sheldon, founder of Global Economic Crisis, The Huffington Post,, 5.10.9, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-facesdis_b_201147.html // jweideman]
In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that is rarely
encountered in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of the former Soviet Union that
led to its political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably
alarmed at the prospect that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability,
achieved at great cost after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are occurring among rank and file workers
facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries. Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev are
eroding rapidly. Beyond
the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who have been forced to deleverage,
even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise cash. Should the
Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out of the question, the
impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be for the Global Economic Crisis. There is a
geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then the economic context . Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived
decline from superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear
arsenal of sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only President
Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and
destabilizing social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S.
UQ: econ
Russia’s economy is weak, but growth is coming
ITARR-TASS 7/3 [Russian news agency. 7/3/14, “Russia’s economic growth to accelerate to over 3% in 2017” http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/738849
//jweideman]
The Russian government expects the national economy to grow, despite the unfavorable economic scenario for this year, Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday. Medvedev chaired a government meeting on Thursday to discuss the
federal budget parameters and state program financing until 2017. “This scenario (of Russia’s social and
economic development) unfortunately envisages a general economic deterioration and slower
economic growth this year. Then, the growth is expected to accelerate gradually to 2% next year and to
over 3% in 2017,” Medvedev said. The 2015-2017 federal budget will set aside over 2.7 trillion rubles ($78
billion) for the payment of wages and salaries, the premier said, adding the government’s social obligations were a priority in the
forthcoming budget period. More than a half of federal budget funds are spent through the mechanism of state
programs. In 2015, the government intends to implement 46 targeted state programs to the amount of
over 1 trillion rubles (about $30 billion) in budget financing, the premier said. The same budget financing principle will now
be used by regional and local governments, including Russia’s two new constituent entities - the
Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, the premier said.
Russia will avoid recession
AFP 7/10 [Agence France-Presse is an international news agency headquartered in Paris. It is the oldest news agency in the world and one of the largest.
7/10/14, “Russia avoids recession in second quarter” https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/world/a/24425122/russia-avoids-recession-in-second-quarter/
//jweideman]
Moscow (AFP) - Russia
managed to avoid sliding into a recession in the second quarter, its deputy economy
minister said Wednesday, citing preliminary estimates showing zero growth for the three months ending June. The emerging giant was
widely expected to post a technical recession with two consecutive quarters of contraction, after
massive capital flight over the uncertainty caused by the Ukraine crisis. "We were expecting a possible technical recession in
the second quarter," Russia's deputy economy minister Andrei Klepach said, according to Interfax news agency.
But it now "appears that we will avoid recession, our preliminary forecast is one of zero growth after
adjusting for seasonal variations," he said. Official data is due to be published by the statistics institute
during the summer, although no specific date has been given. Russia's growth slowed down sharply in the first quarter as investors, fearing the impact of
Western sanctions over Moscow's annexation of Crimea, withdrew billions worth of their assets. In the first three months of the year, output contracted by 0.3
percent compared to the previous quarter. Klepach
estimated that on an annual basis, Russia's annual growth would
better the 0.5 percent previously forecast. "The situation is unstable, but we think... that the trend
would be positive despite everything," he said, adding however that it would be a "slight recovery rather than solid growth". The
government has until now not issued any quarter to quarter growth forecast. Economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev on Monday issued a year-on-year forecast, saying
output expanded by 1.2 percent in the second quarter of the year.
Russia is experiencing growth
AFP 7/7 [Agence France-Presse is an international news agency headquartered in Paris. It is the oldest news agency in the world and one of the largest. 7/7/14,
“Russian output expands 1.2% in second quarter: economy minister” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/140707/russian-output-expands-12-secondquarter-economy-minister-0 //jweideman]
Russia's economy minister said Monday that output expanded by 1.2 percent in the second quarter
compared to the same period last year, a preliminary figure that is "slightly better" than expected despite the Ukraine crisis. "The
results are slightly better than we predicted, with the emphasis on 'slightly'," economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. He added that the
"refined" official figure by Russia's statistics agency will be released later. The IMF said last month that Russia is already in recession, while the central bank said
growth in 2014 is likely to slow to just 0.4 percent. Ulyukayev
said that second quarter figure, up from 0.9 percent in the
first quarter and 0.2 percent better than his ministry's expectations, was likely bolstered by industrial
growth. "This year industry is becoming the main locomotive of growth," Ulyukayev told President Vladimir Putin in a
meeting, citing industrial growth reaching 2.5 percent, up from 1.8 percent in the first quarter.
UQ AT: sanctions
There won’t be more sanctions
Al Jazeera 14 [Al Jazeera also known as Aljazeera and JSC (Jazeera Satellite Channel), is a Doha-based broadcaster owned by the Al Jazeera Media Network,
June 5 2014. “G7 holds off from further Russia sanctions” http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/06/g7-hold-off-from-further-russia-sanctions20146545044590707.html //jweideman]
Leaders of the G7 group of industrial nations have limited themselves to warning Russia of another
round of sanctions as they urged President Vladimir Putin to stop destabilising Ukraine. On the first day of the
group's summit in Brussels on Wednesday, the bloc said that Putin must pull Russian troops back from his country's border with Ukraine and stem the pro-Russian
uprising in the east of the country."Actions to destabilise eastern Ukraine are unacceptable and must stop," said the group in a joint statement after the meeting.
"We stand ready to intensify targeted sanctions and to implement significant additional restrictive measures to impose further costs on Russia should events so
require." However,
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said that further sanctions would take effect
only if there had been "no progress whatsoever". Al Jazeera's James Bays, reporting from Brussels, said: "The G7 leader are
talking here again about tougher sanctions on Russia. But they are talking about the same tougher sanctions they have been
talking about for months now." Meanwhile, Putin reached out a hand towards dialogue, despite being banned from the
summit following Russia's annexation of Crimea in March, saying that he was ready to meet Ukraine's president-elect Petro Poroshenko and US President Barack
Obama.
U-Production decline
Oil production is declining
Summers 14 [Dave, author for economonitor, july 7 14, “Oil Production Numbers Keep Going Down” http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/07/oilproduction-numbers-keep-going-down/ //jweideman]
One problem with defining a peak in global oil production is that it is only really evident sometime after the event, when one can look in the rear view mirror and
see the transition from a
growing oil supply to one that is now declining. Before that relatively absolute point, there
will likely come a time when global supply can no longer match the global demand for oil that exists at
that price. We are beginning to approach the latter of these two conditions, with the former being increasingly probable
in the non-too distant future. Rising prices continually change this latter condition, and may initially disguise the arrival of the peak, but it is becoming inevitable.
Over the past two years there has been a steady growth in demand, which OPEC expects to continue at around the 1 mbd range, as has been the recent pattern.
The challenge, on a global scale, has been to identify where the matching growth in supply will come from, given the declining production from older oilfields and
the decline rate of most of the horizontal fracked wells in shale. At
present the United States is sitting with folk being relatively
complacent, anticipating that global oil supplies will remain sufficient, and that the availability of enough
oil in the global market to supply that reducing volume of oil that the US cannot produce for itself will
continue to exist. Increasingly over the next couple of years this is going to turn out to have created a false sense of security, and led to decisions on
energy that will not easily be reversed. Consider that the Canadians have now decided to build their Pipeline to the Pacific. The Northern Gateway pipeline that
Enbridge will build from the oil sands to the port of Kitimat.
Oil production is decreasing off the coast
Larino 14 [Jennifer, Staff writer for NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune covering energy, banking/finance and general business news in the greater New Orleans
area. 7/8/14, “Oil, gas production declining in Gulf of Mexico federal waters, report says”
http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2014/07/oil_gas_production_in_federal.html //jweideman]
Oil and gas found off the coast of Louisiana and other Gulf Coast states made up almost one quarter of all fossil
fuel production on federal lands in 2013, reinforcing the region's role as a driving force in the U.S. energy industry, according to updated
government data. But a closer look at the numbers shows the region's oil and gas production has been in
steady decline for much of the past decade. A new U.S. Energy Information Administration report shows
federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico in 2013 accounted for 23 percent of the 16.85 trillion British
thermal units (Btu) of fossil fuels produced on land and water owned by the federal government. That was
more than any other state or region aside from Wyoming, which has seen strong natural gas production in recent years. The report did not include data on oil and
gas production on private lands, which makes up most production in many onshore oil and gas fields, including the Haynesville Shale in northwest Louisiana. But
production in the offshore gulf has also fallen every year since 2003. According to the report, total fossil
fuel production in the region is less than half of what it was a decade ago, down 49 percent from 7.57 trillion Btu in 2003
to 3.86 trillion in 2013. The report notes that the region has seen a sharp decline in natural gas production as older offshore fields dry out and more
companies invest in newer gas finds onshore, where hydraulic fracturing has led to a boom production. Natural gas production in the offshore gulf was down 74
percent from 2003 to 2013. The region's oil production has declined, though less drastically. The offshore gulf produced about 447 million barrels of oil in 2013,
down from a high of 584 million barrels in 2010. Still, the region accounted for 69 percent of all the crude oil produced on all federal lands and waters last year.
Offshore well exploration is ineffective and expensive now
API 14 [The American Petroleum Institute, commonly referred to as API, is the largest U.S trade association for the oil and natural gas industry. January 2014,
“Offshore Access to Oil and Gas” http://www.api.org/policy-and-issues/policy-items/exploration/~/media/Files/Oil-and-Natural-Gas/Offshore/OffshoreAccessprimer-highres.pdf//jweideman]
Sometimes when a lease is not producing, critics claim it is “idle.” Much more often than not, non-producing leases are not idle at all; they are under geological
evaluation or in development and could become an important source of domestic supply. Companies
purchase leases hoping they will
hold enough oil or natural gas to benefit consumers and become economically viable for production.
Companies can spend millions of dollars to purchase a lease and then explore and develop it, only to
find that it does not contain oil and natural gas in commercial quantities. It is not unusual for a company
to spend in excess of $100 million only to drill a dry hole. The reason is that a company usually only has
limited knowledge of resource potential when it buys a lease. Only after the lease is acquired will the company be in a position to
evaluate it, usually with a very costly seismic survey followed by an exploration well. If a company does not find oil or natural gas in commercial quantities, the
company hands the lease back to the government, incurs the loss of invested money and moves on to more promising leases. If a company finds resources in
commercial quantities, it will produce the lease. But there sometimes can be delays — often as long as ten years — for environmental and engineering studies, to
acquire permits, to install production facilities (or platforms for offshore leases) and to build the necessary infrastructure to bring the resources to market.
Litigation, landowner disputes and regulatory hurdles also can delay the process .
Oil is getting harder to find
Spak 11 [Kevin, staff writer for newser. 2/16/11, “Exxon: Oil Becoming Hard to Find” http://www.newser.com/story/112166/exxon-oil-becoming-hard-tofind.html //jweideman]
Exxon Mobil Corp. is having trouble finding more oil, it revealed yesterday in its earnings call. The
company said it was depleting its reserves, replacing only 95 out of every 100 barrels it pumps. Though it tried
to put a positive spin on things by saying it had made up for the shortfall by bolstering its natural gas supplies, experts tell the Wall Street
Journal that’s probably a shift born of grim necessity. Oil companies across the board are drifting toward
natural gas, because oil is harder and harder to come by, according to the Journal. Most accessible fields are already tapped out,
while new fields are either technically or politically difficult to exploit. “The good old days are gone and not to be repeated,” says one analyst. Natural gas “is not
going to give you the same punch” as oil.
2NC Link Wall
Satellites prevent rig destroying eddys- empirically solves production
ESA 6 [European space agency, 1 March 2006, “SATELLITE DATA USED TO WARN OIL INDUSTRY OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS EDDY”
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Satellite_data_used_to_ warn_oil_industry_of_potentially_dangerous_eddy//jweideman]
Ocean FOCUS began issuing forecasts on 16 February 2006 – just in time to warn oil production
operators of a new warm eddy that has formed in the oil and gas-producing region of the Gulf of
Mexico. These eddies, similar to underwater hurricanes, spin off the Loop Current – an intrusion of warm surface
water that flows northward from the Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan Strait – from the Gulf Stream and can cause extensive and costly
damage to underwater equipment due to the extensive deep water oil production activities in the region.The Ocean
FOCUS service is a unique service that provides ocean current forecasts to the offshore oil production industry to give
prior warning of the arrival of eddies. The service is based on a combination of state-of-the-art ocean
models and satellite measurements. Oil companies require early warning of these eddies in order to
minimise loss of production, optimise deep water drilling activities and prevent damage to critical equipment. The Loop Current and eddies
shedding from it pose two types of problems for underwater production systems: direct force and induced vibrations, which create more stress than direct force
and results in higher levels of fatigue and structural failure. The
impact of these eddies can be very costly in terms of
downtime in production and exploration and damage to sub sea components.
IOOS leads to more effective production
NOAA 13 [U.S. Department of Commerce www.ioos.noaa.gov May 2013 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Ocean Observing
System (IOOS®) Program. May 2013, “IOOS®: Partnerships Serving Lives and Livelihoods”
http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/communications/handouts/partnerships_lives_livelihoods_flyer.pdf //jweideman]
IOOS supplies critical information about our Nation's waters. Scientists working to understand climate change, governments
adapting to changes in the Arctic, -nunicipalities monitoring local water quality, industries jnderstanding coastal and marine spatial planning all have the same need:
reliable and timely access to data and information that informs decision making. Improving Lives and Livelihoods IOOS
enhances our economy. Improved information allows offshore oil and gas platform and coastal operators,
municipal Dlanners, and those with interests n the coastal zone to minimize impacts of natural hazards,
sea level rise, and flooding. This infor- mation improves marine forecasts so mariners can optimize
shipping routes, saving time and reducing fuel expenses - translating into cost savings for consumers.IOOS
benefits our safety and environment. A network of water quality monitoring buoys on the Great Lakes makes beaches safer □y detecting and predicting the
Dresence of bacteria (E. coli). Mariners use IOOS wave and surface current data to navigate ships safely under bridges and in narrow channels.
Satellites are effective at finding new oil wells
DTU 9 [Technical University of Denmark (DTU) 2/27/9, “New Oil Deposits Can Be Identified Through Satellite Images”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090226110812.htm //jweideman]
A new map of the Earth’s gravitational force based on satellite measurements makes it much less
resource intensive to find new oil deposits. The map will be particularly useful as the ice melts in the oil-rich Arctic regions. Ole
Baltazar, senior scientist at the National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space),
headed the development of the map. The US company Fugro, one of the world’s leading oil exploration companies, is one of the companies
that have already made use of the gravitational map. The company has now initiated a research partnership with DTU Space. “Ole Baltazar’s gravitational
map is the most precise and has the widest coverage to date,” says Li Xiong, Vice President and Head Geophysicist with Fugro. “On account of its high resolution and
accuracy, the
map is particularly useful in coastal areas, where the majority of the oil is located.” Satellite
measurements result in high precision Ole Baltazar’s map shows variations in gravitational force across the
surface of the Earth and knowledge about these small variations is a valuable tool in oil exploration.
Subterranean oil deposits are encapsulated in relatively light materials such as limestone and clay and
because these materials are light, they have less gravitational force than the surrounding materials. Ole
Baltazar’s map is based on satellite measurements and has a hitherto unseen level of detail and accuracy. With this map in your hands, it is, therefore,
easier to find new deposits of oil underground. Climate change is revealing new sea regions The gravitational map from DTU Space is
unique on account of its resolution of only 2 km and the fact that it covers both land and sea regions. Oil companies use the map in the first phases of oil
exploration. Previously, interesting areas were typically selected using protracted, expensive measurements from planes or ships. The
interesting areas
appear clearly on the map and the companies can, therefore, plan their exploration much more
efficiently. “The map will also be worth its weight in gold when the ice in the Arctic seriously begins to melt, revealing large sea regions where it is suspected
that there are large deposits of oil underground. With our map, the companies can more quickly start to drill for oil in the right places without first having to go
through a resource-intensive exploration process,” explains Ole Baltazar. Based on height measurements instead of direct gravitation measurements The success of
the gravitational map is due in large part to the fact that it is not based on direct gravitation measurements but on observations of the height of the sea, which
reflects the gravitation. “Height
measurements have the advantage that it is possible to determine the
gravitational field very locally and thus make a gravitational map with a resolution of a few km. For
comparison, the resolution of satellite measurements of gravitational force is typically around 200 km. Satellite gravitation measurements are used, for example, to
explore conditions in the deeper strata of the Earth, but are not well suited to our purposes,” Ole Baltazar explains.
IL-Prices k2 russia’s economy
High oil prices are key to political and economic stability in Russia
Ioffe 12 [Julia, Foreign policy’s Moscow correspondant. 6/12/12, “What will it take to push russians over the edge”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/12/powder_keg?page=0,1 //jweideman]
There is also the economic factor to consider. The Russian economy is currently growing at a relatively
healthy 3.5 percent, but it's useful to recall the whopping growth rates Russia was posting just a few
years ago. In 2007, the year before the world financial crisis hit Russia, Russia's GDP growth topped 8 percent. It had been
growing at that pace, buoyed by soaring commodity prices, for almost a decade, and it was not accidental that
this was the decade in which Putin made his pact with the people: You get financial and consumer
comforts, and we get political power. It's hard to maintain such a pact when the goodies stop flowing.
Which brings us to the looming issue of the Russian budget deficit. To keep the people happy and out of politics, the Russian
government has promised a lot of things to a lot of people. (Putin's campaign promises alone are
estimated by the Russian Central Bank to cost at least $170 billion.) To balance its budget with such
magnanimity, Russia needs high oil prices, to the point where last month, the Ministry of Economic
Development announced that an $80 barrel of oil would be a "crisis." Keeping in mind that oil is now about $98 a barrel, and
that Russia used to be able to balance its budgets just fine with oil at a fraction of the price, this doesn't look too good for Putin. Factor in the worsening European
crisis -- Europe is still Russia's biggest energy customer -- and the fact that the state has put off unpopular but increasingly necessary reforms, like raising utility
prices, and you find yourself looking at a powder keg.
Russia’s economy and regime is oil dependent- reverse causal
Schuman 12 [Michael, is an American author and journalist who specializes in Asian economics, politics and history. He is currently the Asia business
correspondent for TIME Magazine. July 5 2012, “Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices” http://business.time.com/2012/07/05/why-vladimir-putin-needshigher-oil-prices/ //jweideman]
Falling oil prices make just about everyone happy. For strapped consumers in struggling developed nations, lower oil prices mean a smaller
payout at the pump, freeing up room in strained wallets to spend on other things and boosting economic growth. In the developing world, lower oil prices mean
reduced inflationary pressures, which will give central bankers more room to stimulate sagging growth. With the global economy still climbing out of the 2008
financial crisis, policymakers around the world can welcome lower oil prices as a rare piece of helpful news. But
Vladimir Putin is not one of
them. The economy that the Russian President has built not only runs on oil, but runs on oil priced
extremely high. Falling oil prices means rising problems for Russia – both for the strength of its economic
performance, and possibly, the strength of Putin himself. Despite the fact that Russia has been labeled
one of the world’s most promising emerging markets, often mentioned in the same breath as China and
India, the Russian economy is actually quite different from the others. While India gains growth benefits from an expanding
population, Russia, like much of Europe, is aging; while economists fret over China’s excessive dependence
on investment, Russia badly needs more of it. Most of all, Russia is little more than an oil state in
disguise. The country is the largest producer of oil in the world (yes, bigger even than Saudi Arabia), and Russia’s dependence on crude
has been increasing. About a decade ago, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s exports; in
recent years, that share has risen to two-thirds. Most of all, oil provides more than half of the federal
government’s revenues. What’s more, the economic model Putin has designed in Russia relies heavily not just on oil, but high oil prices. Oil
lubricates the Russian economy by making possible the increases in government largesse that have
fueled Russian consumption. Budget spending reached 23.6% of GDP in the first quarter of 2012, up from 15.2% four years earlier. What that
means is Putin requires a higher oil price to meet his spending requirements today than he did just a few
years ago. Research firm Capital Economics figures that the government budget balanced at an oil price of $55 a barrel in 2008, but that now it balances at
close to $120. Oil prices today have fallen far below that, with Brent near $100 and U.S. crude less than $90. The farther oil prices fall, the more pressure is placed
on Putin’s budget, and the harder it is for him to keep spreading oil wealth to the greater population through the government. With
a large swath of
the populace angered by his re-election to the nation’s presidency in March, and protests erupting on the streets of Moscow,
Putin can ill-afford a significant blow to the economy, or his ability to use government resources to firm up his popularity. That’s why
Putin hasn’t been scaling back even as oil prices fall. His government is earmarking $40 billion to support the economy, if necessary, over the next two years. He
does have financial wiggle room, even with oil prices falling. Moscow has wisely stashed away petrodollars into a
rainy day fund it can tap to fill its budget
needs. But Putin doesn’t have the flexibility he used to have. The fund has shrunk, from almost 8% of GDP
in 2008 to a touch more than 3% today. The package, says Capital Economics, simply highlights the weaknesses of Russia’s economy: This cuts
to the heart of a problem we have highlighted before – namely that Russia is now much more dependent on high and rising oil
prices than in the past… The fact that the share of ‘permanent’ spending (e.g. on salaries and pensions)
has increased…creates additional problems should oil prices drop back (and is also a concern from the perspective of
medium-term growth)…The present growth model looks unsustainable unless oil prices remain at or above $120pb.
IL-Production lowers prices
Production lowers oil prices
Leonardo 12 [Maugeri, Leonardo. “Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment.” Policy Brief, Belfer Center for
Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, June 2012.http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/maugeri_policybrief.pdf //jweideman]
Oil Prices May Collapse. Contrary to prevailing wisdom that increasing global demand for oil will increase
prices, the report finds oil production capacity is growing at such an unprecedented level that supply
might outpace consumption. When the glut of oil hits the market, it could trigger a collapse in oil prices.
While the age of "cheap oil" may be ending, it is still uncertain what the future level of oil prices might be. Technology may turn today's expensive oil into
tomorrow's cheap oil. The
oil market will remain highly volatile until 2015 and prone to extreme movements in
opposite directions, representing a challenge for investors. After 2015, however, most of the oil exploration and development
projects analyzed in the report will advance significantly and contribute to a shoring up of the world's production capacity. This could provoke
overproduction and lead to a significant, steady dip of oil prices, unless oil demand were to grow at a sustained yearly rate of at
least 1.6 percent trough 2020. Shifting Market Has Geopolitical Consequences. The United States could conceivably produce up to 65
percent of its oil consumption needs domestically, and import the remainder from North American
sources and thus dramatically affect the debate around dependence on foreign oil. However the reality will not
change much, since there is one global oil market in which all countries are interdependent. A global oil market tempers the meaningfulness of self- sufficiency, and
Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil may decide to export their oil and gas production to non- U.S. markets purely for commercial reasons. However, considering
the recent political focus on U.S. energy security, even the spirit of oil self-sufficiency could have
profound implications for domestic energy policy and foreign policy. While the unique conditions for the shale boom in the
United States cannot be easily replicated in other parts of the world in the short-term, there are unknown and untapped resources around the globe and the results
of future exploration development could be surprising. This combined with China's increasing influence in the Middle East oil realm will continue to alter the
geopolitics of energy landscape for many decades.
New production decreases global prices
Tallet et al 14 [Harry vidas, Martin Tallett Tom O’Connor David Freyman William Pepper Briana Adams Thu Nguyen Robert Hugman Alanna Bock ICF
International EnSys Energy. March 31, 2014. “The Impacts of U.S. Crude Oil Exports on Domestic Crude Production, GDP, Employment, Trade, and Consumer Costs”
http://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/LNG-Exports/LNG-primer/API-Crude-Exports-Study-by-ICF-3-31-2014.pdf //jweideman]
The increase
in U.S. crude production accompanied by a relaxation of crude export constraints would tend to increase the
overall global supply of crude oil, thus pulling downward pressure global oil prices. Although the U.S. is the second
largest oil producer in the world and could soon be the largest by 2015, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)48, the price impact of
crude exports is determined by the incremental production, rather than total production. For this study, ICF used
Brent crude as proxy for the global crude price as affected by forces of global crude supply and demand. The impact of lifting crude exports on Brent prices, as
shown in Exhibit 4-19, is relatively small, about $0.05 to $0.60/bbl in the Low- Differential Scenario and about $0.25 to $1,05/bbl in the High-Differential Scenario. It
should be noted that Brent prices are affected by various factors such as emerging supply sources, OPEC responses to
increasing U.S. and Canadian production, and geopolitical events. Changes in any of these factors could mean actual Brent prices would deviate significantly from
our forecasts. However, in general, higher global production leads to lower crude prices, all other factors being
equal.Allowing crude exports results in a Brent average price of $103.85/bbl over the 2015-2035 period, down S0.35/bbl from the Low-Differential Scenario without
exports and down $0.75/bbl from the High-Differential Scenario without exports.While global crude prices drop, domestic crude prices gain strength when exports
are allowed because lifting the restrictions helps relieve the U.S. crude oversupply situation and allows U.S. crudes to fully compete and achieve pricing in
international markets close to those of similar crude types. Exhibit 4-20 shows WTI prices increase to an average of $98.95/bbl over the 2015-2035 period in the
Low-Differential and High-Differential With Exports Cases as opposed to $96.70/bbl in the Low-Differential No Exports Case and $94.95/bbl in the High-Differential
No Exports Case. The range of increase related to allowing exports is $2.25 to $4.00/bbl averaged over 2015 to 2035.
Production decreases prices
Alquist and Guenette 13 [Ron Alquist and Justin-Damien Guénette work for the bank of Canada. 2013, “A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of
High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market,” http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/wp2013-23.pdf //jweideman]
The presence of these unconventional sources of oil throughout the world and the ability to recover them makes a large
expansion in the physical production of oil a possibility. Recent estimates suggest that about 3.2 trillion barrels of unconventional
crude oil, including up to 240 billion barrels of tight oil, are available worldwide (IEA 2012a). By 2035, about 14 per cent of oil production will consist of
unconventional oil, an increase of 9 percentage points.
The potential for unconventional oil extraction around the world has led
some oil industry analysts to describe scenarios in which the world experiences an oil glut and a decline
in oil prices over the medium term (Maugeri 2012).
Impact-Proliferaiton
Russia’s economy is key to stop proliferation
Bukharin 3 [Oleg, August, he is affiliated with Princeton University and received his Ph.D. in physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology
“The Future of Russia: The Nuclear Factor”, http://www.princeton.edu/~lisd/publications/wp_russiaseries_bukharin.pdf,//jweideman]
There are presently no definite answers about the future of the nuclear security agenda in Russia. The Russian nuclear legacy – its nuclear forces, the nuclear-weapons production and power-
What is
clear is that nuclear security and proliferation risks will be high as long as there remain their underlying
causes: the oversized and underfunded nuclear complex, the economic turmoil, and wide-spread crime and corruption. The magnitude of the
problem, however, could vary significantly depending on Russia’s progress in downsizing of its nuclear weapons complex; its ability to maintain core
competence in the nuclear field; availability of funding for the nuclear industry and safeguards and
security programs; political commitment by the Russian government to improve nuclear security; and
international cooperation. Economically-prosperous Russia, the rule of law, and a smaller, safer and more secure nuclear complex would
make nuclear risks manageable. An integration of the Russian nuclear complex into the world’s nuclear industry, increased transparency of nuclear operations, and
generation complex, huge stocks of nuclear-useable highly enriched uranium and plutonium, and environmental clean-up problems – is not going to go away anytime soon.
cooperative nuclear security relations with the United States and other western countries are also essential to reducing nuclear dangers and preventing catastrophic terrorism.
Proliferation is the worst – it destabilizes hegemony and all other nations and
escalates to nuclear war – deterrence doesn’t account for irrational actors
Maass 10 Richard Maass, working for his Ph. D. in political science at Notre dame University, and
currently teaches classes there on International Relations. 2010 “Nuclear Proliferation and Declining U.S.
Hegemony” http://www.hamilton.edu/documents//levitt-center/Maass_article.pdf
On August 29, 1949, The Soviet Union successfully tested its first nuclear fission bomb, signaling the end
of U.S. hegemony in the international arena. On September 11th, 2001, the world’s single most
powerful nation watched in awe as the very symbols of its prosperity fell to rubble in the streets of New
York City. The United States undisputedly “has a greater share of world power than any other country in
history” (Brooks and Wolforth, 2008, pg. 2). Yet even a global hegemon is ultimately fallible and vulnerable to rash acts
of violence as it conducts itself in a rational manner and assumes the same from other states. Conventional
strategic thought and military action no longer prevail in an era of increased globalization. Developing states and irrational actors play
increasingly influential roles in the international arena. Beginning with the U.S.S.R. in 1949, nuclear proliferation has
exponentially increased states’ relative military capabilities as well as global levels of political instability.
Through ideas such as nuclear peace theory, liberal political scholars developed several models under
which nuclear weapons not only maintain but increase global tranquility. These philosophies assume
rationality on the part of political actors in an increasingly irrational world plagued by terrorism,
despotic totalitarianism, geo-political instability and failed international institutionalism. Realistically,
“proliferation of nuclear [weapons]…constitutes a threat to international peace and security” (UN Security
Council, 2006, pg. 1). Nuclear security threats arise in four forms: the threat of existing arsenals, the emergence
of new nuclear states, the collapse of international non-proliferation regimes and the rise of nuclear
terrorism. Due to their asymmetric destabilizing and equalizing effects, nuclear weapons erode the
unipolarity of the international system by balancing political actors’ relative military power and security.
In the face of this inevitable nuclear proliferation and its effects on relative power, the United States must accept a position of
declining hegemony. Despite nuclear proliferation’s controversial nature, states continue to develop the technologies requisite for constructing nuclear
weapons. What motivates men to create “the most terrifying weapons ever created by human kind…unique in their destructive power and in their lack of direct
military utility”(Cirincione, 2007, pg. 47)? Why then do states pursue the controversial and costly path of proliferation? To states, nuclear
weapons
comprise a symbolic asset of strength and “as a prerequisite for great power status” (Cirincione, 2007, pg. 47). On a
simplistic level, nuclear weapons make states feel more powerful, respected and influential in world politics. When it is in their best interest, states
develop
nuclear capabilities to ensure their own sovereignty and to potentially deter other states from attacking.
According to realist thinkers, nuclear weapons provide the “ultimate security guarantor” in an anarchic
international system (Cirincione, 2007, pg. 51). Proliferation optimists and rational deterrence theorists, such as
Kenneth Waltz, argue proliferation stabilizes international security and promotes peace. Rational
deterrence theory states that nations refrain from nuclear conflict because of the extraordinarily high
cost. Arguably the most powerful military technology ever developed by man, nuclear weapons have only twice been deployed in actual conflict, due to the
devastation they incur. Nuclear weapons increase the potential damage of any given military conflict due to their immense destructive capabilities. Summarizing
rational deterrence framework, Waltz asserts “states are deterred by the prospect of suffering severe damage and by their inability to do much to limit it” (Sagan
and Waltz, 2003, pg 32). According to the rational deterrence framework, political actors refrain from both conventional and nuclear conflict because of the
unacceptably high costs. Ultimately an assumption, rational deterrence theory lacks any empirically tested evidence. Nuclear
proliferation
exponentially increases the possibility of non-proliferation regime collapse and nuclear conflict, reducing
all states’ relative power. Nuclear peace theory seems plausible, but like any mathematical model it may
only marginally apply to world politics and the dynamics of nuclear proliferation, due to the fact that
“international security is not reducible to the theory of mathematical games” (Bracken, 2002, pg. 403). Rather, the
spread of nuclear weapons exponentially decreases the stability of regional and global politics by
intensifying regional rivalries and political tensions, both of which may potentially catalyze a nuclear
catastrophe. Frustrated with a lack of results through conventional conflict, desperate states may look to nuclear arsenals as a source of absolute resolution
for any given conflict. The use of nuclear weapons, even in a limited theater, could plausibly trigger chain
reactions rippling across the globe. With their interests and sovereignty threatened, other nuclear states
will eventually use their own weapons in an effort to ensure national security. President Kennedy warned of the danger
of nuclear proliferation in 1963: I ask you to stop and think for a moment what it would mean to have nuclear weapons in so many hands, in the hands of
countries…there would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real security…there would only be the increased chance of accidental war, and an increased
necessity for the great powers to involve themselves in what otherwise would be local conflicts (Cirincione, 2007, pg. 103). Proliferation
decreases
the relative security of all states not only through the possibility of direct conflict, but also by
threatening foreign and domestic interests. As the sole international hegemon, the U.S. seeks to use its
power to insure its security and influence international politics in a way that reflects its own interests
and values (Huntington, 1993, pg. 70). In addition to creating a direct security threat, further proliferation
jeopardizes the United States’ ability to project its primacy and promote its interests internationally
Impact-Relations
US-Russia tensions high now
Labott 14 [Elise Labott, CNN Foreign Affairs Reporter. 3/11/14, “Ukraine impasse stirs U.S.-Russia tensions”
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/world/europe/ukraine-us-russia-tensions/ //jweideman]
Tensions between the United States and Russia over the crisis in Crimea have exploded into an open
row as Russia rejects U.S. diplomatic efforts to solve the impasse. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday that
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss American proposals, which Moscow has
effectively rejected, on solving the crisis. The
meeting, which Russia said was supposed to happen Monday, would have
marked the highest-level contact between the two countries since Russian troops took up positions in
Crimea, and would have come ahead of Sunday's potentially explosive vote on whether Crimea should
split from Ukraine and join Russia. But Kerry told Lavrov he needed to know Moscow would engage seriously on a diplomatic solution before
meeting with the Russian leader. He also wanted to see and end to Russia's "provocative steps" before traveling to
Russia. Expert: We need a 'Plan B' for Ukraine Pro-Russian forces muscle into base What Bush admin. got wrong on Russia Relations between Russia and the
West have grown increasingly tense since Russian soldiers seized effective control of the pro-Russian region. The United
States and other European powers have threatened possible sanctions in response to Russia's moves,
but Moscow has shown little sign of backing down.
At: dutch disease
Russia doesn’t have dutch disease, but oil still matters
Adomanis 12 [Mark, contributer to forbes, specializes in Russian economics. 6/22/12, “Is Russia Suffering From Dutch Disease?”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/06/22/is-russia-suffering-from-dutch-disease///jweideman]
Part of the
reason that Russia is not experiencing Dutch Disease (which is something you would normally expect in a country that
that the world economy has been in turmoil for most
of the past 4 years: there has been a “flight” to quality in “safe” assets and currencies which has surely
worked to weaken the ruble and depress its value. The “new normal” is actually a pretty bizarre state of affairs, and is characterized by
any number of things, such as negative real interest rates on German Bunds and US treasuries, that ten years ago would have seemed impossible. Russia’s
economy faces an awful lot of risks, and its over-dependence on natural resources is extremely
dangerous, particularly at a time that global growth is slamming to a halt. Buckley is right that Russia needs to diversify, and that its government
will find this process to be an extremely difficult and complicated one. But, at the present time, one of the very few economic
risks that Russia doesn’t face is Dutch Disease: its currency isn’t overvalued and, if anything, is actually trending lower against the main
has earned such an enormous pile of money from selling oil and natural gas) is
reserve currencies.
No Russian dutch disease
Dobrynskaya and Turkisch 9 [Victoria Dobrynskaya & Edouard Turkisch
CEPII. September 2009, “Is Russia sick with the Dutch disease?” http://www.cepii.com/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-20.pdf//jweideman]
The fear that the Russian economy may become too dependent on the energy sector and not
sufficiently diversified has influenced monetary policy over the last ten years. This policy was aimed at preventing the
nominal appreciation of the rouble in order to maintain industrial competitiveness. In this paper, using Rosstat and CHELEM databases, we
study whether Russia suffered the Dutch disease in 1999-2007. We do find some symptoms of it in
Russia: there was a strong real appreciation of the rouble, real wages increased, employment decreased
in manufacturing industries and rose in services sector. However, there was no sign of a deindustrialisation, what contradicts the theory of the Dutch disease. Indeed, industrial production increased significantly.
Furthermore, the symptoms present in Russia can be the consequences of other factors than the existence of
natural resources. The appreciation of the rouble in real terms came partly from the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The quick development of the services was
partly due to the fact that services were not put forward during the Soviet Union limes. The outflow of labour from the manufacturing industries resulted in inflow
of labour in services sector rather than in the energy sector.
AT: China turn
The US and china cooperate over energy
ECP 13 [US China Energy Cooperation Project. 2013-11-20, “U.S.-China Energy Cooperation Program (ECP) and Chinese Institute of Electronics (CIE) Launch Joint
U.S.-China Green Data Center Industrial Initiative,” http://www.uschinaecp.org/en/News/NewsDetail.aspx?nid=f74ebbdf-f9be-418a-8147a12a7e31088b&cid=d952ba0f-3ba2-4372-8b26-ef635b67d638 //JWEIDEMAN]
On November 20, 2013, with support of the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
(MIIT) and the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), the U.S.-China Energy Cooperation
Program (ECP) and Chinese Institute of Electronics (CIE) jointly launched the U.S.-China Green Data
Center Industry Partnership at the US China Green Data Center Workshop at the Xiyuan Hotel in Beijing. The key
related issues of the development of the energy efficient/green data center sector, which includes:
market, needs, opportunities, challenges, technology solutions and best practices, evaluation methods
and etc, have been addressed and discussed at the workshop. At the workshop, the two sides on behalf of the participating U.S.
and Chinese industries, signed a MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING For Cooperation on Green Data
Center to promote US-China Industry cooperation in China’s green data center sector. Senior officials from the Department of Energy
Efficiency and Resources Utilization of MIIT, USTDA, Foreign Commercial Service and the U.S. Department of Energy China Office of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing
witnessed the signing ceremony. Industry experts from Intel, UTC, Caterpillar, Cisco, Emerson, Fuxing Xiaocheng, NewCloud, Neusoft, Huawei, Inspur, ZTE attended
the workshop. The three-year joint program between ECP
and CIE aims to provide valuable reference and living best
practices for green data center development in China through deeply cooperation between both US and
China industries. Specifically, these include: 1. Green data center technical guideline, technology catalogue, and green data center best practice portfolio.
2. Green data center related incentive plan, business model, monitoring and evaluation method and system and etc. 3. Green data center energy saving
demonstration projects, needs assessment, and industry entry study etc. 4. Capacity building: green data center expert committee establishment, practical training,
and certificate training and study tour.
The US and China are committed to cooperation over energy
Department of energy 11 [United states department of energy. January 2011, “U.S.-China Clean Energy Cooperation A Progress rePort by the U.s.
DePArtment of energy” http://www.us-china-cerc.org/pdfs/US_China_Clean_Energy_Progress_Report.pdf//jweideman]
The United States and the People’s Republic of China have worked together on science and technology
for more than 30 years. Under the Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement of 1979, signed soon after
normalization of diplomatic relations, our two countries have cooperated in a diverse range of fields, including basic
research in physics and chemistry, earth and atmospheric sciences, a variety of energy-related areas,
environmental management, agriculture, fisheries, civil industrial technology, geology, health, and
natural disaster planning. More recently, in the face of emerging global challenges such as energy
security and climate change, the United States and China entered into a new phase of mutually
beneficial cooperation. In June 2008, the U.S.-China Ten Year Framework for Cooperation on Energy and
the Environment was created and today it includes action plans for cooperation on energy efficiency,
electricity, transportation, air, water, wetlands, nature reserves and protected areas. In November 2009, President Barack Obama and President
Hu Jintao announced seven new U.S.- China clean energy initiatives during their Beijing summit. In doing so,
the leaders of the world’s two largest energy producers and consumers affirmed the importance of the transition to a clean and low-carbon economy—and the vast
opportunities for citizens of both countries in that transition.the following joint initiatives were announced in november 2009: • U.S.-China Clean Energy Research
Center. Scientists
and engineers from both countries are working together to develop clean energy
technologies, initially focusing on building energy efficiency, clean coal and clean vehicles. Both
countries are contributing equally to $150 million in financial support from public and private sources
over five years. • Electric Vehicles Initiative. This initiative includes the joint development of standards for charging plugs and testing protocols of batteries
and other devices, demonstration projects in paired cities to collect and share data on charging patterns and consumer preferences, joint development of technical
roadmaps, and public education projects. • Energy Efficiency Action Plan. Both governments are working together with the private sector to develop energy
efficient building codes and rating systems, benchmark industrial energy efficiency, train building inspectors and energy efficiency auditors for industrial facilities,
harmonize test procedures and performance metrics for energy-efficient consumer products, and exchange best practices in energy efficiency labeling systems.
Energy innovation in one country accelerates clean energy deployment in all countries. And the combined
research expertise and market size of the U.S. and China provide an unprecedented opportunity to develop clean energy solutions that will reduce pollution and
improve energy security while enhancing economic growth globally.
AT: Oil shocks
Oil shocks don’t collapse the economy
Fels, Pradhan, and Andreopoulos 11 [By Joachim Fels, Manoj Pradhan, Spyros Andreopoulos: Write for Morgan Stanley- economic institution.
March 4, 2011. “This Time Is Different” http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2011/20110304-Fri.html //jweideman]
Will elevated oil prices generate a sharp slowdown? The recent run-up in oil prices has investors worried
that a sharp slowdown in global growth lies ahead. Worse, with the oil market increasingly pricing the
risk that the shock may be permanent - the Dec 2012 futures contract trades at around US$109 per barrel - there is even talk of
the possibility of a global recession. We think not, for two broad reasons. First, oil prices constitute
wealth redistribution, not wealth destruction. And second, this time is different: as things stand, we
think that the current oil shock is unlikely to harm growth much. Higher oil prices redistribute wealth
rather than destroying it. From a global perspective, higher oil prices do not mean that wealth is
destroyed. Rather, it is redistributed - from net oil importers to net exporters (see below on The Effects of Oil Price
Shocks). While this wealth transfer can be substantial, much of it is, over time, recycled back into net oil-importer
economies: •· Oil exporters will spend some of their newly gained oil wealth on imports from net importers; hence, increased import demand
replaces some of the domestic demand lost due to the wealth transfer; •· Oil exporters will also purchase
assets in net importer economies, providing support for asset markets there. Even so, oil shocks have
always been redistributive - yet arguably they have done considerable damage to the global economy in the past. The 1970s, when oil price spikes
preceded two successive recessions, are held up as the prime examples of the harm that oil can do to the economy. So, it is tempting to look at the effects of
previous oil shocks in order to infer the consequences of the current one. We would urge caution, however, as all else is not equal. Many things are different this
time, so a given increase in the price of oil should be less harmful now than it would have been in the 1970s: 1. Nature
of the Shock It is worth
bearing in mind that the increase in the oil price since September has been due to a mixture of demand
and supply influences. Much of the rise in the price of Brent since September from a level of about US$80 per barrel to about US$100 was due to
demand, in our view, with the oil market repricing the global growth and inflation trajectory. It is only the recent rise, due to events in the Middle East, that
constitutes a supply shock. That is, supply has accounted for less than half of the oil price increase since September. Why does the distinction matter? Oil
demand shocks due to strength in the real economy are endogenous; they are unlikely to derail growth.
The price of oil merely acts like an elastic leash on the dog that is the global economy. If the dog surges
ahead too quickly, the constricting effect of the leash will make sure it slows down - but it will not stop.
Between 2003 and 2007, the real price of oil roughly doubled, with little evident harm to the global economy. But exogenous, supply-induced shocks tend to be
stagflationary in nature. In the dog metaphor, an oil supply shock could act as a jerk on the leash, which could bring the dog to a halt. 2. Initial Conditions This
recovery is still in relatively early stages and thus more robust than a late-cycle recovery. This is partly because personal savings rates are higher early in the cycle
than late in the cycle, providing more of a cushion for consumer spending. Also, corporate profit margins are usually higher early on in the cycle than late in the
cycle, and companies can thus more easily absorb the cost push from higher oil prices. Most importantly, global monetary conditions are very loose, providing a
cushion to the real economy. 3. Structure of the Economy •· The
oil intensity of global GDP is lower. That is, less oil is used
today to produce a dollar of GDP. Hence, a given percentage increase in the inflation-adjusted price of
oil will do less damage to the economy now. •· Labour markets are more flexible: The effect of an oil supply shock on
employment and output is larger, the less real wages adjust in response. More flexible labour markets make real wages more responsive to supply shocks, thus
dampening the effects on production and employment. •· Monetary policy is more credible: A more credible central bank needs to act less, all else equal, to achieve
a given objective. In the case of an oil shock, the implication is that monetary policy needs to do less harm to the real economy to achieve a given dampening effect
on inflation. 4. Policy Response in Net Importing Economies: ‘Rational Inaction' Means Central Banks Will Keep Rates on Hold The policy response to an oil shock is
an important determinant of the overall economic effect. If central banks were to tighten in response to inflation, the dampening effect of the initial oil shock on
the economy would be amplified. We have just argued, in very general terms, that a more credible monetary policy requires less of a response to achieve a desired
effect. In this particular case, however, we do not expect much of a response in the first place: in our view, most central banks will not tighten policy aggressively in
response to the recent surge in oil prices. This is likely to be true for both DM and EM monetary authorities. Again, this reaction - or rather, the lack of one - is
rational: it is virtually impossible to forecast whether the current supply worries will abate or not, so a ‘wait and see' stance makes sense. 5. Oil Exporters' Behaviour
May Be Materially Different •· Oil exporters will likely spend more of the wealth transfer than usual: With the risk of social unrest increasing, governments will be
inclined to increase spending and transfers in order to maintain stability. This suggests that a larger part of the initial wealth transfer from net exporters to net
importers will be reversed, over time, through goods imports of the former from the latter. •· At current prices, oil producers will probably want to make up a
meaningful part of the Libyan production shortfall over the medium term - not least because doing so will generate additional revenue with which social stability
can be bought. Our commodity strategy team thinks that there is enough spare capacity to do so (see Crude Oil: MENA Turm-OIL, February 25, 2011).
Farms DA
1NC
Water pollution from runoff on US farms has avoided regulation so far but continued
exemption is not guaranteed
David C. Roberts 9, assistant professor in the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics at
North Dakota State University; Christopher D. Clark, associate professor in the Department of
Agricultural Economics at the University of Tennessee; and Burton C. English, William M. Park and
Roland K. Roberts, professors in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of
Tennessee, “Estimating Annualized Riparian Buffer Costs for the Harpeth River Watershed,” Appl. Econ.
Perspect. Pol. (Winter 2009) 31 (4): 894-913, oxford journals
Since the passage of the Clean Water Act (CWA), largely unregulated nonpoint sources (NPS) of pollution have
contributed to an increasing share of the nation’s water quality problems (Copeland). While the amount of agricultural land in the United States has remained
relatively constant over the past thirty years, agricultural production has increased because of technological advances and increasingly fertilizer-intensive agricultural practices. These fertilizerintensive practices have been a major contributor to a threefold increase in the nitrate load in the Mississippi River entering the Gulf of Mexico (Greenhalgh and Sauer). When the states and
territories surveyed the nation’s rivers and streams, they found 39% of the segments surveyed impaired for one or more uses. Agriculture was listed as a contributor to 48% of these
impairments—more than twice as much as any other source (USEPA 2002).¶ Reducing environmental externalities associated with agriculture poses a number of difficult policy challenges. In
the context of water quality,
NPS runoff from agricultural lands has proven to be relatively resistant to regulation .
the CWA imposes effluent limitations on point sources but not on NPS and explicitly exempts
“agricultural stormwater discharges” from the definition of point sources (Houck).1 The void created by the absence of federal
regulation has been filled with a variety of voluntary programs (Houck). More recently, it has been filled by the promotion of policies that would
For example,
allow point sources subject to the CWA’s effluent limitations to satisfy some of these restrictions by leasing effluent reductions from NPS. This has come to be known as “water quality trading”
(USEPA 2003b, 1996). States, attracted by the possibility of reducing pollution abatement costs, have implemented a number of water quality trading (WQT) programs (Breetz et al.).¶
States have also stepped into the void by enacting statutes that address NPS pollution by requiring landowners to observe mandatory “setback” or “buffer”
requirements along waterways. These statutes tend to be limited in their application to specific activities or waterways, or both. For example, while
the Georgia Erosion and Sedimentation Control Act prohibits land-disturbing activities within 7.6 meters (25 feet) of the banks of any state water, it exempts a fairly
extensive list of activities from the prohibition, including “agricultural practices, forestry land management practices, dairy operations, livestock and poultry
management practices, construction of farm buildings…” (Georgia Department of Natural Resources). North Carolina has adopted regulations designed to protect a 15.2-meter (50-feet)
riparian buffer along waterways in the Neuse and Tar-Pamlico River Basins (North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources). Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay Preservation Act
provides for 30.4-meter (100-feet) buffer areas along specifically designated “Resource Protection Areas,” but allows encroachments into buffer areas for agricultural and silvicultural activities
under certain conditions (Chesapeake Bay Local Assistance Board).¶ Riparian buffer strips—areas of trees, shrubs, or other vegetation along surface water bodies—have also played a
prominent role in federal and state voluntary programs to reduce NPS pollution. For example, the Conservation Reserve Program has supported the use of buffer strips since 1988 (Prato and
Shi) and funds made available to states through the CWA’s Section 319 program are often used to subsidize buffer strip installation (Nakao and Sohngen). Buffer strips are proving an attractive
policy option because of their effectiveness in intercepting and removing nutrients, sediment, organic matter, and other pollutants before these pollutants enter surface water and because of
the other environmental benefits they provide, including improved terrestrial and aquatic habitat, flood control, stream bank stabilization, and esthetics (Qiu, Prato, and Boehm).¶
NPS
pollution has typically avoided the type of regulation imposed on point sources. However, its prominent role in the impairment of
surface and ground water quality means that water quality cannot be meaningfully improved without addressing agricultural NPS pollutant loadings. The possibility that the
costs of abating pollution from NPS are lower than costs of abating pollution from point sources (Faeth)
may also make NPS an attractive target . In any event, buffer strips are proving to be a relatively popular means of controlling NPS discharges. Although
agriculture has often been excluded from regulation, there is no guarantee that the agricultural sector
will continue to enjoy this treatment. For example, North Carolina’s Department of Water Quality
drafted, but did not adopt , regulations that would have required all crop farms adjacent to streams to
install buffer strips (Schwabe). In the absence of regulation of agricultural NPS, it seems likely that alternatives to regulation will continue, if not increase. Many of these will
promote the installation of buffer strips through subsidies of one form or another. For example, the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program, which subsidizes conservation-oriented
practices by landowners, has established a goal of installing 157,000 miles of riparian buffers, filter strips, and wetlands in states in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (Bonham, Bosch, and Pease).
IOOS leads to new policies to prevent harmful algal blooms---results in stricter
regulation on non-point sources of nutrient pollution like agriculture
Dr. Donald Anderson 8, Senior Scientist in the Biology Department of the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution and Director of the U.S. National Office for Marine Biotoxins and Harmful Algal Blooms, Phd
in Aquatic Sciences from MIT, Written testimony presented to the House Committee on Science and
Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, July 10 2008,
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=8915&tid=282&cid=46007
These are but a few of the advances in understanding that have accrued from ECOHAB regional funding. Equally important are the discoveries that provide management tools to reduce the
Management options for dealing with the impacts of 8 HABs include reducing their
incidence and extent (prevention), stopping or containing blooms (control), and minimizing impacts (mitigation). Where possible, it is preferable to prevent HABs rather than
to treat their symptoms. Since increased pollution and nutrient loading may enhance the growth of some HAB
species, these events may be prevented by reducing pollution inputs to coastal waters, particularly industrial,
agricultural, and domestic effluents high in plant nutrients. This is especially important in shallow, poorly flushed coastal
waters that are most susceptible to nutrient-related algal problems. As mentioned above, research on the links between certain HABs and nutrients has highlighted
the importance of non-point sources of nutrients (e.g., from agricultural activities , fossil-fuel combustion, and animal
feeding operations). ¶ The most effective HAB management tools are monitoring programs that involve sampling and testing of wild or
cultured seafood products directly from the natural environment, as this allows unequivocal tracking of toxins to their site of origin and
impacts of HABs on coastal resources.
targeted
regulatory action . Numerous monitoring programs of this type have been established in U.S. coastal waters, typically by state agencies. This monitoring has become
quite expensive, however, due to the proliferation of toxins and potentially affected resources. States are faced with flat or declining budgets and yet need to monitor for a growing list of HAB
toxins and potentially affected fisheries resources. Technologies are thus urgently needed to facilitate the detection and characterization of HAB cells and blooms.¶ One very useful technology
that has been developed through recent HAB research relies on species- or strain-specific “probes” that can be used to label only the HAB cells of interest so they can then be detected visually,
electronically, or chemically. Progress has been rapid and probes of several different types are now available for many of the harmful algae, along with techniques for their application in the
rapid and accurate identification, enumeration, and isolation of individual species. One example of the direct application of this technology in operational HAB monitoring is for the New York
and New Jersey brown tide organism, Aureococcus anophagefferens. The causative organism is so small and non-descript that it is virtually impossible to identify and count cells using
traditional microscopic techniques. Antibody probes were developed that bind only to A. anophagefferens cells, and these are now used routinely in monitoring programs run by state and
local authorities, greatly improving counting time and accuracy.¶ These probes are being incorporated into a variety of different assay systems, including some that can be mounted on buoys
and left unattended while they robotically sample the water and test for HAB cells. Clustered with other instruments that measure the physical, chemical, and optical characteristics of the
water column, information can be collected and used to make “algal forecasts” of impending toxicity. These instruments are taking advantage of advances in ocean optics, as well as the new
A clear need has been
identified for improved instrumentation for HAB cell and toxin detection, and additional resources are needed in this regard. This can be
accomplished during development of the Integrated Ocean Observing System ( IOOS ) for U.S. coastal waters, and through a targeted research program
on HAB prevention, control, and mitigation (see below). These are needed if we are to achieve our vision of future HAB
monitoring and management programs – an integrated system that includes arrays of moored instruments as sentinels along the U.S. coastline, detecting HABs as they
molecular and analytical methodologies that allow the toxic cells or chemicals (such as HAB toxins) to be detected with great sensitivity and specificity.
develop and radioing the information to resource managers. Just as in weather forecasting, this information can be assimilated into numerical models to improve forecast accuracy.
That wrecks farm productivity without reducing nutrient pollution
Carl Shaffer 14, President of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau, TESTIMONY TO THE HOUSE COMMITTEE
ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE SUBCOMMITTEE ON WATER RESOURCES AND
ENVIRONMENT REGARDING NUTRIENT TRADING AND WATER QUALITY, March 25 2014,
http://transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2014-03-25-shaffer.pdf
Fifth, the underlying assumption that it is easy and inexpensive for farmers and nonpoint sources to reduce
nutrient loading is a myth. ¶ Concept of Water Quality Trading ¶ Farm Bureau policy supports the concept of water quality trading; implicit in that is the notion that
participation by farmers is voluntary and that the system reflects the realities of agriculture. Farm Bureau has a long history of supporting market-based approaches to improving the
environment. We have also encouraged states to include trading in their toolbox to help implement state water quality programs because trading and offsets can reduce costs associated with
achieving environmental improvements. ¶ Even with that history of support, however, farmers and ranchers remain skeptical of trading programs in general and those associated with water
quality specifically, and for good reason. Farmers grow things and understand that nutrient enrichment is a predictable outcome of all human activities – not just farming and ranching
activities. Farmers understand that agricultural activities – like those in virtually every other part of life, such as shopping malls, golf courses, residential areas to name just a few – can affect
the amount of nutrients that reach our waters. The fact is, each and every one of us plays a role in water quality; we all contribute to nutrient loading, either directly or indirectly, through the
EPA’s environmental strategies too often focus more
on affixing blame for problems or regulating some activity or person, rather than finding solutions that recognize and seek balance.
food we consume, the products we purchase, and the way we live our lives. ¶ Unfortunately,
EPA’s toolbox is both limited and dominated by an approach that focuses heavily on pollution prevention and reduction based on the concept of polluter pays. For conventional pollutants, this
there is an ongoing misperception that agriculture
chronically over-applies nutrients. Nutrients, however, are not conventional pollutants – they are a combination of
pollutants from point sources and pollution from nonpoint sources . The fact is, nutrients are critical for optimal productivity
approach has resulted in costly controls and restrictive permits on point sources. At the same time,
in agriculture even though farmers and ranchers are striving for the best possible ecosystem function.
Managing nutrients is extremely complicated because there is not one practice, technology or approach
that can optimize nutrient utilization throughout the environment. Therefore, we need policy options that are balanced. We must
develop solutions that optimize outcomes. We all want: 1) safe, affordable and abundant food, fiber and fuel; 2) vibrant and growing communities with jobs and expanding economic activity;
and 3) fishable and swimmable waters. ¶ The challenges presented by trading and offset programs are the complex interplay of economic scenarios that could play out over time when such
regulatory offsets
programs are taken to their logical conclusions. For example, if
are required for any new development or for expanding economic activity, one would expect a
regulatory offsets process to trade low-value economic activity for high-value activity. In real life, however, such a program would not be likely to require an old home to be torn down before a
new home could be constructed. Likewise, the construction and operation of a new manufacturing facility and the jobs inherent to that economic activity would not likely come at the expense
result will undoubtedly be a shift in development
activities out of lower value areas, likely rural areas and farmland , into high value urban areas. The downside of such an offsets
of other high-value economic activity. But trading programs will allow “tradeoffs” and the
program can be represented by simple math. For example, within an urban area, land suitable for building a factory could be valued at $100,000 or more per acre, while land in the same
geographic area suitable to produce corn or soybeans could be valued at $10,000 per acre. In a market-based system, it would appear to be only rational to extinguish the environmental
externalities generated by the farmland to offset the externalities associated with the higher value economic activity of manufacturing. While this may be an extreme example, the reality is
The long-run reality for
farmers and ranchers would be that, over time, rural areas will have fewer and fewer means to sustain
themselves. ¶ Trading and Offsets are Creatures of State Statutes ¶ The Clean Water Act leaves the task of controlling water pollution largely to the states; it expressly recognizes,
that the nation has never used water quality as a mechanism to cap or, in some cases like the Chesapeake Bay, reduce economic activity.
preserves and protects “the primary responsibilities and rights of States to prevent, reduce, and eliminate pollution [and] to plan the development and use … of land and water resources.”
Authorized federal involvement in state actions is carefully limited. Under no circumstances does the act authorize EPA to assume state responsibility to develop a planning process or a Total
Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) implementation plan. It is within these contexts that trading programs are often contemplated. As such, states may implement trading and offsets programs
established under state laws. In addition, states retain the flexibility to choose both if and how to use trading in the implementation of state water quality programs.¶ Nutrient Standards May
Not be Affordable or Attainable Without Trading ¶ Optimizing nitrogen and phosphorus utilizations through trading may hold potential, but there are significant scientific, market and
regulatory challenges. First, from a scientific standpoint, there is no direct relationship between agricultural nutrient management practices and nutrient loss. If the relationship were direct,
trading would be straightforward, transparent and enable orderly operations of markets. ¶ Second, under the Clean Water Act, states establish and EPA approves water quality standards and
criteria. States are currently feeling pressure from EPA to adopt default numeric nutrient standards and criteria based on the level of nutrients found in pristine waters. Such an approach holds
If EPA is successful, cities,
agriculture and other sources of nutrients will incur significant regulatory costs without any guarantee that water
quality improvements will match the required level of investment. Restrictive state standards that are not based on reference waters can be unachievable and
the prospect of establishing standards that force states to adopt costly control measures that, in the end, are not realistically attainable.
require costly control and management measures. ¶ EPA and States Are Imposing Barriers for Markets and Trading ¶ Achieving the environmental and economic goals of point source nonpoint source (PS-NPS) water quality trading depends on having understandable rules that clearly define what is being traded and the parameters of the exchange. Trading rules and
procedures establish who can trade, what is traded (credit definition), duration of a credit, baseline requirements (for calculating credits), accepted procedures for calculating credits, how the
trade occurs, trading ratios, verification, liability rules, and enforcement procedures. ¶ In theory, trading assumes market participants have full information about the cost and effectiveness of
their nutrient reduction options and can instantly and, at little-to-no-cost, obtain information on credit market prices and quantities. However, in the real world people are faced with limited
time, resources, skills and acquaintance with markets. Complex rules and inadequate institutional design can result in poor buyer or seller participation, coordination failures and lack of
desired outcomes. (Shortle, 2013). ¶ In fact, ex-post assessments of PS-NPS water quality trading programs already in existence have generally been negative about their performance. Most
have seen little or no trading activity, with the expected role for nonpoint sources unrealized. A number of reasons have been presented including a lack of trading partners (due to limited
regional scale or underlying economics), inadequate regulatory incentives, uncertainty about trading rules and practice performance, excessively high PS-NPS trading ratios (increasing the cost
of nonpoint credits), legal and regulatory obstacles (including liability concerns), high transaction costs, and participant unfamiliarity and inexperience. ¶ Pennsylvania’s experience with water
quality trading illustrates a number of the challenges I have mentioned. For example, the rules underlying Pennsylvania’s nutrient credit trading program, created in large part in response to
an EPA mandate to reduce pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, are the product of a multi-year stakeholder negotiation process that was codified in regulation in 2010. However,
shortly thereafter, EPA announced that it would undertake a review of the offset and trading program in each Chesapeake Bay jurisdiction. EPA’s assessment included questions about whether
or not Pennsylvania’s agricultural trading baseline met the requirements of TMDL—in spite of the fact that trades had already taken place under the program rules in place at the time. Further,
the assessment included EPA’s expectations that Pennsylvania would demonstrate that the existing baseline was sufficient to meet the TMDL, or otherwise make “necessary adjustments” to
the baseline acceptable to EPA. ¶ In response to EPA’s review, Pennsylvania has since proposed a number of possible changes to its trading program that have raised serious questions among
existing and potential credit generators and users about what the rules governing the market for credits will look like going forward. Specifically, many are concerned about what happens to
non-point source credit generators, primarily farmers, who have generated and sold credits under Pennsylvania's existing program, and who may have long-term commitments to provide
credits for years into the future. The uncertainty is not conducive to sustaining a successful, transparent, long-term water quality ¶ trading program. ¶ The Myths –
Easy Nor Inexpensive
It’s Neither
¶ It is often assumed that agriculture can supply credits less expensively than other nonpoint and point sources. Whether or not this is true depends
heavily on the trading rules and procedures described previously. Baseline requirements represent one trading rule that has an important impact on agriculture’s ability to be the low-price
supplier of credits. ¶ Baseline requirements establish the level of stewardship farmers and ranchers perform on a parcel of land before they are eligible to participate in the trading program
and actually produce credits for sale. Any abatement necessary to meet the baseline cannot be sold as credits, but is instead credited to meeting the load allocation for agriculture. When
baselines are more stringent than current practices, a farmer would only be willing to create and sell credits if the expected credit price were high enough to cover the cost of meeting the
baseline plus the cost of any measures taken to produce additional abatement. This increases the cost of supplying credits, and ¶ reduces the amount of credits purchased by point sources.¶
Current research suggests that concerns about baseline requirements are well founded. Stephenson et al. (2010) found that when the baseline is more stringent than current practices,
agricultural credit costs for nitrogen can surpass costs per pound (for marginal abatement) for point sources because the baseline has claimed the lowest-cost pollutant reductions. Ghosh et al.
(2011) found that Pennsylvania’s baseline requirements significantly increased the cost of entering a trading program, making it unlikely that nonpoint sources that could reduce nutrient
losses for the lowest unit costs would enter the market. Wisconsin has expressed concern that EPA’s approach to defining baselines could obstruct agricultural sources’ participation in trading
programs and possibly impede water quality improvements (Kramer, 2003). The impact of baseline requirements is a crucial matter and fundamental to the successful operation of any trading
program, though its impact is not unique. Any trading rule or requirement that is incorrectly developed can have similar effects: fewer nonpoint source credits purchased by point sources, and
total abatement costs for regulated sources higher than they could have been. ¶ As a regulatory agency, EPA appears to have difficulty appreciating the realities of how markets function. The
agency is not necessarily tasked with creating private markets and most people would probably agree that the agency has difficulty appreciating the realities of how real markets function. As a
result, environmental markets are suffering from a significant creditability crisis. This ultimately results in skeptical farmers and ranchers who then take a cautious approach to nutrient trading.
if it were easy and inexpensive for farmers and ranchers to reduce nutrient
loadings, they would have already figured out a way to capture the benefit associated with
incremental nutrients lost to the environment. Farmers today use some of the most advanced
technology in the world to optimize their productivity. From precision application using 4R nutrient stewardship to GPS technology, farmers
and ranchers are committed to improving their production efficiencies, a fact that allows them in turn to
reduce their environmental footprint. 4R nutrient stewardship is an effective concept that allows a farmer to use the right fertilizer source, at the right rate, at
¶ Regarding the cost of reducing nutrient loads,
the right time and with the right placement to optimize nutrient utilization, while precision agriculture is a farming system that uses technology to allow closer, more site-specific management
of the factors affecting crop production. ¶ For example, in precision agriculture, utilizing GPS and yield monitors, farmers can measure their output more precisely by matching yield data with
the location in the field. Special computer-driven equipment can change the rate at which fertilizers, seeds, plant health products and other inputs are used, based on the needs of the soil and
crop in a particular portion of a field. ¶ Farmers have embraced precision agriculture and the 4R philosophy because it is an innovative and science-based approach that enhances
environmental protection, expands production, increases farmer profitability and improves sustainability. ¶ Conclusion ¶ Your
constituents want affordable and
abundant food , fiber and fuel, and the members of Farm Bureau want the chance to provide them. Farmers are
concerned about the environment. As technology evolves so do farmers. We take advantage of technology, new practices and programs in order to not only provide safe, affordable and
abundant food, fiber and fuel, but also to protect our land, water and air resources.
Extinction
Richard Lugar 2k, Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of
the Senate Agriculture Committee “calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and
reduce world instability,” http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning nuclear threats and other crises, it is easy to lose sight of the long-range
challenges. But we do so at our peril. One of the most daunting of them is meeting the world’s need for food and energy in this century. At stake is not only
preventing starvation and saving the environment, but also world peace and security. History tells us that states may go
to war over access to
resources, and that poverty and famine have often bred fanaticism and terrorism. Working to feed the world will
minimize factors that contribute to global instability and the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction . With the world population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion by mid-century, the
demand for affordable food will increase well beyond current international production levels. People in rapidly
developing nations will have the means greatly to improve their standard of living and caloric intake. Inevitably, that means eating more meat. This will raise
demand for feed grain at the same time that the growing world population will need vastly more basic food to eat. Complicating a solution to this problem is a
dynamic that must be better understood in the West: developing
countries often use limited arable land to expand cities to
good land disappears, people destroy timber resources and even rainforests as
they try to create more arable land to feed themselves. The long-term environmental consequences could be disastrous
for the entire globe. ¶ Productivity revolution ¶ To meet the expected demand for food over the next 50 years, we in the United
States will have to grow roughly three times more food on the land we have. That’s a tall order. My farm in Marion County, Indiana, for
house their growing populations. As
example, yields on average 8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare – typical for a farm in central Indiana. To triple our production by 2050, we will have to produce an
annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we possibly boost output that much? Well, it’s been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water,
improved machinery and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 – on our farm back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3
tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases. But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again. Given the urgency
of expanding food production to meet world demand, we must invest much more in scientific research and target that money toward projects that promise to have
significant national and global impact. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and fund agricultural science. Fundamental research
will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world. The
success at increasing
United States
can take a leading position in a productivity revolution. And our
food production may play a decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of
people and the health of our planet.
AT Political Opposition
Their evidence overestimates the farm lobby’s clout---the farm bill proves it’s too
weak to influence policies
Ron Nixon 13, NY Times, July 3 2013, “Farm Bill Defeat Shows Agriculture’s Waning Power,”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/us/politics/farm-bill-defeat-shows-agricultures-waningpower.html
WASHINGTON — The startling failure of the farm bill last month reflects the declining clout of the farm lobby and the oncepowerful committees that have jurisdiction over agriculture policy,
economists and political scientists said
this week.¶ Although a number
of factors contributed to the defeat of the bill — including Speaker John A. Boehner’s failure to rally enough Republican support and Democratic opposition to $20
billion in cuts to the food stamps program — analysts said the 234 to 195 vote also illustrated
the shift in the American population
and political power to more urban areas.¶ “There are a small number of Congressional districts where farming continues to carry much sway,”
said Vincent H. Smith, a professor of agricultural economics at Montana State University. “ Especially in the House, the farm lobby has
been substantially weakened .Ӧ For much of American history, the agriculture sectors wielded
tremendous political power. Farm groups were able to get key farm legislation passed by rallying millions of farmers in nearly every Congressional
district. Influential farm state legislators like Representative Jamie L. Whitten of Mississippi, a Democrat who was chairman of the Appropriations Committee and its
subcommittee on agriculture, brought billions in agriculture financing to their states and fought off attempts to cut subsidy programs despite pressure from both
liberals and conservatives.¶ Mr. Whitten died in 1995 after 53 years in Congress. ¶ But
as Americans have moved to the cities and
suburbs, farmers and lawmakers representing districts largely dependent on agriculture have seen their
political muscle steadily decline . Just 2.2 million people now work in farming in the United States, or about 2.5 percent of the total work
force.¶ Farming now accounts for about 1 percent of gross national product, down from a high of about 9 percent in 1950.
Only 40 lawmakers
represent largely farming districts, according to research by Mr. Smith in 2006. He said that number was probably smaller today.
Political opposition is insufficient to stop environmental regulation---greenhouse gas
regulations prove
Jonathan H. Adler 13, Prof of Law and Director of the Center for Business Law & Regulation at Case
Western Reserve University School of Law, Oct 3 2013, “Conservatives and Environmental Regulation,”
http://www.volokh.com/2013/10/03/conservatives-environmental-regulation/
Anti-regulatory rhetoric may be pervasive, but federal environmental regulation has continued to
expand , under Democratic and Republican presidents alike. Anti-regulatory conservatives have been able to stem the tide of
regulatory initiatives, but only for a time . The failure to develop and advance non-regulatory alternatives to environmental problems has compromised
efforts to constrain the EPA’s regulatory authority. There are plenty of Americans who are suspicious of federal regulation, but they
nonetheless prefer federal environmental regulation to no environmental protection at all.¶ The failure of antiregulatory conservatism is on display in the current fight over federal regulation of greenhouse gases. House Republicans
oppose such regulation (and for good reason), but they have not put forward any alternatives (and many refuse to accept that climate change could be a problem).
Nonetheless , federal regulation of GHGs marches on. The EPA just proposed another set of rules last month. Blanket opposition to
federal GHG regulation failed to
prevent (or
even appreciably slow) such regulation , and time is running out. As GHG emission
controls get imposed, and companies invest in the necessary control technologies, the political support for constraining EPA authority over GHGs will decline. Utilities may not want to give up
coal or install costly carbon capture technologies, but once they’ve made these investments they will hardly want to see the regulations removed. If these rules are not stopped soon, it will be
too late. This is a reason even those who refuse to accept the likelihood of climate change should consider alternatives to command and control regulation. Shouting “No” is insufficient to
ensure success.
AT Labor Shortages
Farm labor shortages are a myth that repeatedly fail to pan out
John Carney 12, CNBC, “More Data on The Phony Farm Labor Crisis,” 30 Aug 2012,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48847903
It’s become something of an annual tradition.¶ Every summer , newspapers around the country roll out stories of a
labor shortage on farms. The fruit is going to rot in the orchards, crops will go unpicked, agricultural
communities will be devastated unless something is done, the stories predict.¶ Here’s a pretty typical version of the story, as told by the San Francisco Chronicle:¶
But the American Farm Bureau Federation and its California chapter believe there is plenty of reason to worry.¶ "There have been instances in which growers had to disc up whole crops
because they didn't have the workforce to harvest," said Kristi Boswell, the Farm Bureau's director of congressional relations. She points to Georgia, where whole tomato fields were plowed
under last year. "The workforce has been decreasing in the last two to three years, but last year it was drastic."¶ And farmers are saying this year is even worse.¶ In recent years, we’ve seen
You’d think the idea of a labor shortage in the midst of on ongoing job drought
would be laughed out of town. (Read more: When Are You Retiring?...How Does Never Sound?)¶ But somehow the story keeps getting
told and taken seriously. According to the Farm Labor Shortage Mythologists, American citizens are just
too lazy and would rather go jobless than work on a farm.¶ Here’s how the Chronicle puts it:¶ Growers have tried to hire more domestic
just how resilient this narrative really is.
workers and had hoped that with unemployment rates so high, they'd find local labor.¶ "But domestic workers don't stick around to finish the job," Boswell said. "It's labor-intensive and often
the
flunked the test of reality . As it turned out, 2011 was one of
involves hand-picking in grueling conditions."¶ Earlier this summer, as these stories started up once again, I tried to introduce some sanity into the discussion by pointing out that
dire farm labor shortage forecasts of 2011 had absolutely
the best years on record for American farms.¶ One of the criticisms of my reading of the farm data was that the data about national farm income might
have been concealing more local crises. Perhaps the national numbers had come in well despite the alleged “farm crisis,” because fields of soy and corn in the Midwest had done well, while
State-by-state data released by the Department of Agriculture
Wednesday has pretty much destroyed that critique.¶ Let’s start with California. The San Francisco Chronicle had warned:¶
Farmers across California are experiencing the same problem: Seasonal workers who have been coming for decades to help with the harvest,
planting and pruning have dropped off in recent years. With immigration crackdowns, an aging Mexican population, drug wars at the border and a weakened job market in the
the apples of Washington, peanuts of Georgia, and California fruits and vegetables went unpicked.¶ Not quite.
United States, the flow of migrants has stopped and may actually have reversed, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research firm that has been
So what happened?¶ Farm profits, what the Ag Department calls “net cash income,” in California rose from $11.1 billion in 2010
to $16.1 in 2011, an eye-popping 45 percent growth.¶ In Washington, the apple harvest was going to be devastated by a labor
studying the trend.¶
Farm profits instead rose from $1.98 billion to $3.14 billion, a 58 percent rise.¶ Georgia was going to have a “rancid
harvest” due to its farm labor shortage, according to The Georgia Report. I guess those peanuts picked themselves, because farm profits in the state rose from
$2.5 billion to $2.6 billion.¶ The mythological Arizona farm labor shortage was supposedly “ destroying” its farm sector .
shortage.
Somehow or another , farm profits rose from $734 million to $1.3 billion.¶ Not every state saw profits boom. Farms in Arkansas, Delaware, Hawaii,
Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Rhode Island and South Carolina did less well in 2011 than 2010. Alabama’s farms saw net cash income fall off a cliff, from $1.2 billion to $773
million.¶ But
clearly this national epidemic of farm labor shortages just never happened.
Farmers can just raise wages to attract more workers
John Carney 13, CNBC, 5/24/13, “Famers Solve Labor Shortage by Raising Pay,”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/24/famers-solve-labor-shortage-by-raising-pay.html
Farm owners have responded to fears of a labor shortage by actually raising wages by a little bit.¶ The
Department of Agriculture reports:¶ Farm operators paid their hired workers an average wage of $11.91 per hour during
the April 2013 reference week, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Field workers received an average of $10.92 per hour, up 4 percent
from a year earlier. Livestock workers earned $11.46, up 51 cents. The field and livestock worker combined wage rate, at $11.10 per hour, was
up 48 cents from a year earlier. Hired
laborers worked an average of 40.3 hours during the April 2013 reference
week, compared with 39.2 hours a year earlier.¶ Maybe someone should tell the Partnership for a New American Economy
about this. It's just crazy enough that it may work!¶ By the way, don't worry about this bankrupting the great
American farmer . Farm profits are expected to rise by more than 13 percent this year—to more than
double what they were as recently as 2009.
AT Brazil Solves
Brazil doesn’t solve---lack of infrastructure
Alistair Stewart 13, South America Correspondent for DTN/The Progressive Farmer, 8/6/13, “Brazilian
Farming's Biggest Problem,”
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/view/blog/getBlog.do;jsessionid=2F48BC2D3422FCE86B5
624EA3DE307B4.agfreejvm1?blogHandle=southamerica&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3e43976e014055b03e6
41466
Everybody knows the biggest problems facing Brazilian agribusiness. It's logistics .¶ When the cost of transporting soybeans
from the fields in central Mato Grosso to a China-bound ship reach 40% of the commodity's value, you have a serious problem. ¶ Brazil more or less
stopped heavy infrastructure investment in the 1970s. So when grain production began to ramp in the
center-west, in areas thousands of miles from the sea, during the 1990s and 2000s, the roads, rail and port facilities eventually
became overrun .¶ The situation gradually deteriorated before descending into chaos over the last year .¶
The freight cost from Sorriso (center-north Mato Grosso) to Paranagua port rose 50% this season, reaching $3.19 per bushel at the peak of the soybean harvest,
while ships were waiting for up to 70 days to load beans at Paranagua. With demurrage costs (basically ship rental) at $15,000 to $20,000, that wait can be very
expensive.¶ "While we don't resolve the logistics questions, we are inviting other players to enter into the game," said Julio Toledo Piza, chief executive at
BrasilAgro, a corporate farm, at an industry conference to discuss logistics in Sao Paulo Monday. ¶ Brazil
is the only major grain producer
with substantial arable land available to exploit and so is in a great position to feed a growing world
population over the next thirty years, as long as it works out a cheap way of delivering the grain, feed and meat .
If not, alternative producers in South America, Africa and Asia will grow. ¶ "This is a huge opportunity that we can't let slip through our grasp," said Jorge Karl,
director of OCEPAR, the farm coops association in Parana state. ¶ Governors have belatedly woken up to the logistical chaos that surrounds them and the federal
government has recently given greater priority to infrastructure development. ¶ As a result, a series of plans to improve infrastructure have started moving forward
and progress has been made on key grain corridors, such as the North-South railway, which will eventually connect the new eastern Cerrado soybean fields to ports
in the North.¶ "The situation is vastly improved ... We hope that in six to seven years we can clear the logistics deficit," said Bernardo Figueiredo, head of EPL, the
government's new infrastructure plan overseer. ¶ But
farmer leaders point out that
while more attention is now being paid to the infrastructural shortcomings,
chronic delays are still the norm .¶ For example, farmers have been waiting for asphalt along the BR163 highway,
which connects central Mato Grosso with northern Amazon ports, for a decade. Work has progressed over the last two years, leading many to believe the Transport
Ministry forecast that it will be ready in 2014. However, just this week the Ministry admitted that the asphalt may only be completed in 2015, or after. ¶ Similarly, an
East-West railway that will connect the soy and cotton fields of western Bahia to the sea is due to be complete in 2015, but work is yet to start on many stretches
and, realistically, beans will flow along this route in 2018 at the earliest. ¶ Many other projects
have been similarly delayed or suspended
due to problems with implementation.¶ Faced with spiraling freight costs, the patience of farm leaders has been wearing thin for a while.¶
"We are told that things are improving but we can't wait. The inability of the government to deliver projects on time is unacceptable," according to Carlos Favaro,
president of the Brazilian Soybean and Corn Growers Association (APROSOJA-MT).¶ None of the major new grain infrastructure projects will be ready for upcoming
2013-14 season, and with soybean area set to grow by 5% or more, the logistical chaos could deepen next year.¶ "We are going to have to
muddle through next season," said Luis Carlos Correa Carvalho, president of the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG). ¶ "Realistically, the situation is only likely
to improve in 2016-17," he added.¶ The high
logistics costs will likely slow growth in Brazilian grain production
over the next
couple of years, but there remains so much pent up demand for logistics in Brazil that any new export corridor will be inundated as soon as it opens.¶ Speakers at
the conference agreed that the fault for the current situation lies with government incompetence, as there are ample funds to invest. ¶ "Credit is everywhere. The
money isn't the problem. The government has to allow it to be invested," said Ingo Ploger, president of the Business Council of Latin America (CEAL).¶ So why is
government so sluggish?¶ For years, the problem was a lack of political will. Simply, farm infrastructure was not a vote winner. ¶ More recently, the realization that
Brazil needs farm revenues to underpin the foreign accounts led President Dilma Rousseff to prioritize infrastructure. ¶ However, after
30 years of
neglect, the know-how and systems to implement big rail, road and port projects just aren't there ,
explained EPL's Figueiredo.¶ "We suffer because plans drawn up are often of poor quality and environmental and other authorities don't have expertise in assess
corruption remains rife in
Brazil's construction industry. As a result, suspicion of graft is widespread. That means government auditors
are quick to suspend projects when suspicions arise.¶ Until these problems are solved, Brazil will continue to
have production costs 10% above its competitors in the U.S. and Argentina, noted CEAL's Ploger.
them in a timely manner. That's a big reason why processes are delayed," he explained to the conference. ¶ Meanwhile,
US is the world’s key food producer
Brown 11 (The world is closer to a food crisis than most people realise Lester R. Brown guardian.co.uk,
Tuesday 24 July 2012 07.21 EDT• Lester R. Brown is the president of the Earth Policy Institute and
author of Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity, due to be published in
October
The United States is the leading producer and exporter of corn, the world's feedgrain. At home, corn accounts
for four-fifths of the US grain harvest. Internationally, the US corn crop exceeds China's rice and wheat harvests
combined. Among the big three grains – corn, wheat, and rice – corn is now the leader, with production well above that of wheat and
nearly double that of rice. The corn plant is as sensitive as it is productive. Thirsty and fast-growing, it is vulnerable to both
extreme heat and drought. At elevated temperatures, the corn plant, which is normally so productive, goes into thermal shock. As spring
turned into summer, the thermometer began to rise across the corn belt. In St Louis, Missouri, in the southern corn belt, the temperature in
late June and early July climbed to 100F or higher 10 days in a row. For the past several weeks, the corn belt has been blanketed with
dehydrating heat. Weekly drought maps published by the University of Nebraska show the drought-stricken area spreading across more and
more of the country until, by mid-July, it engulfed virtually the entire corn belt. Soil moisture readings in the corn belt are now among the
lowest ever recorded. While temperature, rainfall, and drought serve as indirect indicators of crop growing conditions, each week the US
Department of Agriculture releases a report on the actual state of the corn crop. This year the early reports were promising. On 21 May, 77% of
the US corn crop was rated as good to excellent. The following week the share of the crop in this category dropped to 72%. Over the next eight
weeks, it dropped to 26%, one of the lowest ratings on record. The other 74% is rated very poor to fair. And the crop is still deteriorating. Over
a span of weeks, we have seen how the more extreme weather events that come with climate change can affect food security. Since the
beginning of June, corn prices have increased by nearly one half, reaching an all-time high on 19 July. Although the
world was
hoping for a good US harvest to replenish dangerously low grain stocks, this is no longer on the cards.
World carryover stocks of grain will fall further at the end of this crop year, making the food situation even more precarious. Food prices,
already elevated, will follow the price of corn upward, quite possibly to record highs. Not only is the current food situation
deteriorating, but so is the global food system itself. We saw early signs of the unraveling in 2008
following an abrupt doubling of world grain prices. As world food prices climbed, exporting countries
began restricting grain exports to keep their domestic food prices down. In response, governments of
importing countries panicked. Some of them turned to buying or leasing land in other countries on
which to produce food for themselves. Welcome to the new geopolitics of food scarcity. As food
supplies tighten, we are moving into a new food era, one in which it is every country for itself. The
world is in serious trouble on the food front. But there is little evidence that political leaders have yet
grasped the magnitude of what is happening. The progress in reducing hunger in recent decades has
been reversed. Unless we move quickly to adopt new population, energy, and water policies, the goal of eradicating hunger will remain
just that. Time is running out. The world may be much closer to an unmanageable food shortage –
replete with soaring food prices, spreading food unrest, and ultimately political instability– than most
people realise.
Ext UQ
Nutrient runoff from farms is currently unregulated
Ken Kirk 12, Executive Director at the National Association of Clean Water Agencies, JD from
Georgetown University Law Center and Master’s in Environmental Law from GWU Law School, June 20
2012, “Is the Clean Water Act Broken and Can We Fix It?” http://blog.nacwa.org/is-the-clean-water-actbroken-and-can-we-fix-it/
Much has been written and will continue to be written about the Clean Water Act this year as we celebrate the
Act’s 40th anniversary. I don’t think anyone would argue the fact that the Act has been great for our waterways or that we would be much
worse off without it.¶ But now we’ve entered a much more difficult and complex period in the history of the Clean Water Act. Federal money
continues to dry up. Costs continue to increase. And requirements have become more stringent. We also have many new challenges to deal
with including climate change, altered weather patterns, and population growth, to name just a few.¶ And we’re still struggling
how to address wet weather and related runoff, particularly
as this relates to
with
nutrients —arguably one of our biggest clean
water issues right now. And
yet, nonpoint sources remain unregulated . How has this been allowed to continue?¶ Let’s look
back in time for a minute. Before the Clean Water Act, discharge was largely unregulated. We know this was not a good
thing. Then, during the first 20 years of the Act, the focus was on wastewater treatment from domestic
and industrial point sources and the broad use of secondary treatment to accomplish the Act’s goals. I believe this was the right thing
to do at the time.¶ Unfortunately, this entire time, nonpoint sources— including agricultural operations—have
completely avoided regulatory responsibility for their share of the water pollution problem. If we continue
to ignore this very major source of water quality impairment, then it will come at great cost to all taxpayers.
Despite water regulations, agricultural runoff is not restricted
Neila Seaman 13, Director, Sierra Club Iowa Chapter, “IOWA LEADERS STILL NOT PROTECTING WATER
QUALITY,” http://iowa.sierraclub.org/CAFOs/IALeadersStillNotProtectingWaterQuality.htm
There are two sources of water pollution. Point sources are cities, towns and industries that treat their
wastewater before it’s piped into a receiving water resource. They are heavily regulated. Non-point sources
are primarily agricultural runoff from fertilizer and manure and there are basically no regulations on
those sources . The point sources and non-point sources pointing their fingers at each other as the problem has
created a huge logjam that has
spanned decades. As a result, the point sources are now highly regulated and the non-
point sources remain unregulated .
Ext Food Insecurity -> War
Food shortages cause nuclear world war 3
FDI 12, Future Directions International, a Research institute providing strategic analysis of Australia’s
global interests; citing Lindsay Falvery, PhD in Agricultural Science and former Professor at the
University of Melbourne’s Institute of Land and Environment, “Food and Water Insecurity: International
Conflict Triggers & Potential Conflict Points,” http://www.futuredirections.org.au/workshoppapers/537-international-conflict-triggers-and-potential-conflict-points-resulting-from-food-and-waterinsecurity.html
There is a growing appreciation that the conflicts in the next century will most likely be fought over a
lack of resources.¶ Yet, in a sense, this is not new. Researchers point to the French and Russian revolutions as
conflicts induced by a lack of food. More recently, Germany’s World War Two efforts are said to have been
inspired, at least in part, by its perceived need to gain access to more food. Yet the general sense among those that attended FDI’s
recent workshops, was that the scale of the problem in the future could be significantly greater as a result of population
pressures, changing weather, urbanisation, migration, loss of arable land and other farm inputs, and increased affluence in the developing world.¶ In his book, Small
Farmers Secure Food, Lindsay
Falvey, a participant in FDI’s March 2012 workshop on the issue of food and conflict, clearly expresses the
problem and why countries across the globe are starting to take note. .¶ He writes (p.36), “…if people are hungry, especially in cities, the
state is not stable – riots, violence, breakdown of law and order and migration result.” ¶ “Hunger feeds anarchy.”¶ This view is also shared by Julian
Cribb, who in his book, The Coming Famine, writes that if “large regions of the world run short of food, land or water in the
decades that lie ahead, then wholesale, bloody wars are liable to follow.” ¶ He continues: “An increasingly credible
scenario for World War 3 is not so much a confrontation of super powers and their allies, as a festering , self-perpetuating
chain of resource conflicts.” He also says: “The wars of the 21st Century are less likely to be global conflicts with sharply defined sides and huge
armies, than a scrappy mass of failed states, rebellions, civil strife, insurgencies, terrorism and genocides, sparked by bloody competition over dwindling
resources.Ӧ As another workshop participant put it, people do not go to war to kill; they go to war over resources, either to protect or to gain the resources for
themselves.¶ Another observed that hunger results in passivity not conflict. Conflict is over resources, not because people are going hungry. ¶ A
study by
the I nternational P eace R esearch I nstitute indicates that where food security is an issue, it is more
likely to result in some form of conflict. Darfur, Rwanda, Eritrea and the Balkans experienced such
wars. Governments, especially in developed countries, are increasingly aware of this phenomenon. ¶ The UK Ministry of Defence, the CIA,
the US C enter for S trategic and I nternational S tudies and the Oslo Peace Research Institute, all identify famine as a
potential trigger for conflicts and possibly even nuclear war .
Ext IOOS Causes Regulation
Improved ocean observation would allow for regulation of agricultural runoff
Mark J. Kaiser 4, PhD, professor and director of the Research & Development Division at the Center for
Energy Studies at Louisiana State University, PhD and Allan G. Pulsipher, Professor of Energy Policy in
the Center for Energy Studies and Professor in the Department of Environmental Studies at Louisiana
State University, PhD in Economics from Tulane University, “The potential value of improved ocean
observation systems in the Gulf of Mexico,” Marine Policy 28 (2004) 469–489, Science Direct
Waterways draining into the GOM transport wastes from 75% of US farms and ranches, 80% of US cropland,
hundreds of cities, and thousands of industries located upstream of the GOM coastal zone. Urban and agricultural runoff contributes large
quantities of pesticides, nutrients , and fecal coliform bacteria. ¶ Activities that have contributed or are still contributing to the degradation of coastal
water conditions along the Gulf Coast include the petrochemical, industrial, agricultural, power plants, pulp and paper mills, fish processing, municipal wastewater
treatment, maritime shipping, and dredging. Nonpoint
sources are difficult to regulate and currently have the greatest
impact on the GOM coastal water quality. Nonpoint pollutant sources include agriculture , forestry, urban runoff, marinas,
recreational boating, and atmospheric deposition. ¶ One
of nutrients
of the greatest concerns for GOM coastal water quality is an excess
which can lead to noxious algal blooms, decreased seagrasses, fish kills, and oxygen-depletion events.
Improved ocean
observation systems is expected to allow environmental activity in the region to be better understood
and monitored .
Regulation is currently impossible because it’s hard to determine the cause of blooms--the plan allows for attribution that makes regulations possible
David Caron 7, Professor of Biological Sciences at USC, PhD in Biological Oceanography from MIT and
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., and Burt Jones, Adjunct Professor of Biological Sciences at USC, PhD in
Biological Oceanography from Duke, “Making Use of Ocean Observing Systems: Applications to Marine
Protected Areas and Water Quality,” Sept 25-26 2007,
http://calost.org/pdf/resources/workshops/OceanObserving_Report.pdf
Recent summaries of available information have indicated that coastal ecosystems have witnessed a general increase in the occurrence
and severity of harmful and toxic algal blooms. The coastline of California is no exception, with powerful neurotoxins such as saxitoxin and domoic acid now commonly
observed throughout the state. Numerous factors have been implicated as possible contributors to these coastal algal blooms. Harmful blooms can result from natural, seasonal supply of
nutrients to coastal waters during upwelling and from anthropogenic inputs of nutrients in river discharges and land runoff.¶ Unfortunately, quantifying
the contribution of the many potential sources of nutrients that can support algal blooms is a daunting task because of the
difficulty of maintaining continuous observations in the ocean. Harmful algal blooms are ephemeral events
that can develop quickly and dissipate before their causes can be adequately characterized.
Efforts by municipalities, counties and the state to provide responsible environmental stewardship
are often thwarted by the lack of sufficient observational capabilities to document water quality, let alone determine
the cause(s) of adverse events such as harmful algal blooms. Partnerships are desperately needed between ocean observing programs, research/academic institutions, coastal managers and monitoring programs
(including both government and nonprofit) to grapple with the increasing number of environmental influences on algal population growth and toxin production in coastal marine ecosystems. ¶ Ocean observing
systems provide a tool for monitoring, understanding and ultimately predicting harmful algal blooms. Sophisticated sensing instruments installed on piers, deployed from ocean
of coastal waters
buoys, or carried by mobile surface and underwater vehicles provide a ‘constant presence’ in the ocean that assists scientists to detect impending or emerging events, and guide their sampling effort. Aquatic sensors can provide
information on salinity (which can identify sources of freshwater input to the coastal ocean), temperature (which yields information on the physical structure of the water column, a primary factor affecting algal growth in nature),
chlorophyll fluorescence (which documents the biomass of algae in the water) and dissolved oxygen (which indicates biological activity and ecosystem health). A variety of ever-improving nutrient sensors can quantify specific
substances that may stimulate algal growth (e.g., ammonium, nitrate, phosphate). In addition, new sensors that can detect specific microorganisms and/or toxins produced by these species are under development and eventually
will increase the capabilities of ocean observing systems. These
observing systems fill a fundamental gap in our ability to document harmful or
toxic events, and aid our attempts to attribute these events to specific environmental causes.
Ext Regulations Hurt Farms
Even a small link is enough---farms operate on thin margins that make the cost of
regulation devastating
Daniel R. Mandelker 89, Stamper Professor of Law, Washington University in St. Louis, June 1989,
“Controlling Nonpoint Source Water Pollution: Can It Be Done,” Chicago-Kent Law Review Vol. 65, Issue
2, http://scholarship.kentlaw.iit.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2776&context=cklawreview
Another obstacle to controlling nonpoint pollution is that the nonpoint source may be unable to
internalize the cost of the control or pass it on to consumers. 53 This problem particularly arises with
controls on agricultural nonpoint sources . These controls can be expensive in an industry marked by
thin margins and low profitability . Nor are farmers, as an unorganized production group, able to pass
the costs of these controls on to consumers. 54 In contrast, nonpoint source land use controls applied to urban development may not
present this problem. Urban developers may be able to pass the cost of these controls on to their consumers,55 and local governments can use density bonuses to
offset the cost of controls necessary to reduce nonpoint pollution.
Regulations would be ineffective and wreck the economic viability of farms
AFT 13, American Farmland Trust’s Center for Agriculture in the Environment, August 2013,
“Controlling Nutrient Runoff on Farms,” http://www.farmland.org/documents/FINALControllingNutrientRunoffonFarms.pdf
Direct regulation of nutrient runoff from farms is highly unlikely in the United States (Williams 2002). The geographic dimensions make
“federally designed, nationally uniform technology based performance and emissions standards” difficult to implement without a marked increase in
budgeting for individual farm permitting, monitoring and enforcement. Local variations in weather, soil salinity, and soil erosion
potential, leaching potential, and freshwater availability present further challenges to an effective national
regulatory regime. Variations in crop type, production practices, livestock type and concentration, use of
irrigation, tillage practices, sediment runoff and fertilizer runoff all contribute to the difficulty of “ one
size fits all” regulation . Social factors like proximity to metropolitan area, and surrounding land use also influence farm practices. EPA has noted that
a program of this breadth would make it very difficult to implement and enforce regulations. ¶ The
economic dimensions of agriculture also pose barriers to regulation. Agriculture in the U nited S tates
has vast economic value , yet is dispersed widely across the country and by landowner. Faced with the rising costs of
inputs and equipment, the farm industry is quickly consolidating. Increased environmental regulation
of farms may reduce their economic viability due to compliance costs . And the political dimensions, mentioned earlier,
that make regulation of agriculture difficult include a consolidated voting block, strong lobbying and political pressure.
The cost of complying would be prohibitive
John Leatherman 4, Associate Professor in the Dept of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State, PhD
from the University of Wisconsin, Craig Smith, Graduate Research Assistant in the Dept of Agricultural
Economics at Kansas State, and Jeffrey Peterson, Assistant Professor in the Dept of Agricultural
Economics at Kansas State, Agu 19-20 2004, “An Introduction to Water Quality Trading,”
http://www.agmanager.info/events/risk_profit/2004/LeathermanPeterson.pdf
A significant share of the current water quality problems in Kansas stem from nonpoint source pollution,
such as urban storm water and agricultural runoff (KDHE, 2002). Applying the same “command and control” regulatory
approach to nonpoint source pollution would be problematic
for a number of reasons. The widely
distributed
nature of nonpoint source pollution would make regulation and compliance costs frighteningly
prohibitive . It’s also likely there would be significant public opposition to broad regulation of the many activities contributing nonpoint source pollution.
Counterplans
Europe
1NC Europe CP
Counterplan: The European Union should fully develop and implement an integrated
European Ocean Observation System.
Integrated European observation is key to broader data – tech is world class, just a
question of implementation.
EMD 2014
REPORT FROM THE JOINT EUROGOOS/EMODNET/EMB/JRC WORKSHOP AT THE EUROPEAN MARITIME
DAY IN BREMEN,The importance of an integrated end-to-end European Ocean Observing System: key
message of EMD 2014 http://eurogoos.eu/2014/06/09/eoos-at-emd-bremen-2014/
Ocean observations are essential for marine science, operational services and systematic assessment of
the marine environmental status. All types of activities in the marine environment require reliable data
and information on the present and future conditions in which they operate. Many maritime economic sectors (e.g. oil and gas
exploration, maritime transport, fisheries and aquaculture, maritime renewable energy) directly benefit from easily accessible
marine data and information in several ways: improved planning of operations, risk minimization though increased safety, improved
performance and overall reduced cost. Other activities, such as deep sea mining and marine biotechnology, also benefit from specialized deepsea observations that were not feasible until recently. The
complexity and high density of human activities in European
seas and oceans result in a high demand for marine knowledge in the form of data, products and
services to support marine and maritime activities in Europe, stressing the need for an integrated
European approach to ocean observation and marine data management (Navigating the Future IV, European Marine
Board 2013). While Europe already has a relatively mature ocean observing and data management
infrastructure capability , this is largely fragmented and currently not addressing the needs of multiple
stakeholders. Mechanisms for coordinating existing and planned ocean observations using a system
approach are needed for more integrated, efficient and sustained observations under the framework of
a “European Ocean Observing System” (EOOS) following international practice (systems developed by USA, Australia and Canada) and the
call of the EurOCEAN 2010 Conference Declaration . The integration of different national and local marine data
systems into a coherent interconnected whole which provides free access to observations and data, as
pursued by the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) is of key importance for maritime sectors like
fisheries, the environment, transport, research, enterprise and industry. However, much work still needs to be
done in close collaboration with end-users, in particular industry, to further develop EMODnet into a fully functional, fit for
purpose gateway to European marine data and data products taking into account requirements of multiple users. There is a need for scienceindustry partnerships to stimulate innovation and develop a successful EOOS that will further enhance the contribution of marine observations
to economic activities relevant for Blue Growth in Europe. Innovative
technologies, developed in collaboration between research
given several solutions during the past years for more robust, multi-parametric
and systematic observations. This, in turn, is leading to new and more reliable operational services that
support a wide range of maritime economic activities: fisheries and aquaculture, offshore oil and gas, marine renewable
energy, maritime transport, tourism etc. Other services address the sectors of marine safety, climate and weather
applications, as well as marine environmental assessment. At the end of the marine observations, data to knowledge
scientists and the industry, have
cycle, activities and tools are needed to create added value products for specific stakeholders, including the wider public, such as the European
Atlas of the Seas which allows professionals, students and anyone interested to explore Europe’s seas and coasts, their environment, related
human activities and European policies. At the same time, it is critical to evaluate whether we are monitoring/observing what we actually need.
Regional assessments such as performed by the newly established EMODnet sea-basin “checkpoints” could provide relevant information,
among others to advise Member States about requirements for essential and optimal observation capability.
Infrastructure for data sharing already exists
Paris and Schneider et al 2013
Jean-Daniel Paris, Nadine Schneider Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/IPSL Data
sharing across the Atlantic: Gap analysis and development of a common understanding
http://www.coopeus.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Carbon-data-sharing-gaps-06-12-2013-D31.pdf
The global need to develop large, cross continental environmental datasets has been recognized*'. To
address this issue, COOPEU5 is a joint US National Science Foundation (*4SF) and European Commission
FP7 (in the frame of the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures, ESFRI) supported project
initiated in September 2012s. Its main goal is creating a framework to develop interoperable einfrastructures across several environmental and geoscience observatories in Europe and US. The
National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON in the US, www.neoninc.org) and the Integrated
Carbon Observatory System (ICOS in the EU, http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/) are two of these
governmental supported observatories. Here, the data products from these two observatories are
centered around greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration, carbon and energy flux observations, and the
surface micrometeorology surrounding these measurements. The objective of COOPEUS is to coordinate
the integration plans for these carbon observations between Europe and the US. Even though both ICOS
and NEON have the ability to collaborate on effective issues, we fully recognize that this effort cannot be
effectively accomplished without the engagement of many other partners, such as; National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration's Global Monitoring Division (US NOAA GMD), the Group on Earth
Observations (GEO, www.earthobservations.org) and the Group of Earth Observations System of
Systems (GEOSS), World Meteorological Organization (WMO, www.wmo.int), the Belmont Forum
(www.igfagcr.org), ^SF- supported EarthCube (earthcube.ning.com)and DataOne (www.dataone.org)
projects, and a wide variety of regional-pased flux networks (i.e., AmeriFlux, Fluxnet). Of course as
COOPEUS continues to advance, this list of partners are not exclusive and are expected to increase.
COOPEUS aims to strengthen and complement these partnerships through a variety of governance
mechanisms, some informal and others formalized (e.g. Memorandum of Understanding), tailored to
each individual organizational governance structure. Several of these organizations (mentioned above)
have a history of collaborating and sharing of data. In this historical context, we also have recognized
what has worked, exiting limitations, and what can be improved in terms of data sharing and
interoperability. This COOPEUS work task is building upon these relationships and working history to
strengthen these approaches and collaboration.
Yes Data Sharing
Europe will share data with the US – solves the aff
COOPEUS 2013
Project CoopEUS WP 4 – Ocean Observation Deliverable D4.1- Fact Finding Report
http://www.coopeus.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/D4_1_Facts_Finding_10_03_FIN.pdf
Sharing scientific data can be the 'playing-field' for an easy and profitable commencement of the
scientific structured collaboration while complementing respective expertise. This approach also meet
the recent trend of EU and US funding agencies moving towards more openness and more sharing. The
analysis and definition of the basic principles and requirements for a shared data policy can be a first
step for a long-term transatlantic cooperation and can pave the ground for the data integration on a
global scale diminishing significant misalignment in the data issues. Besides, the adoption and
implementation of common data standards can facilitate the development of infrastructure and data
infrastructures that will be largely interoperable. The international ICT collaborative frame for the
interoperability of scientific data and infrastructures has to be leveraged to take advantages of the
continuous progresses and specialized skills. Parallel initiatives and projects at global and continental
scale have to be exploited with the aim of supporting the on-going networking process of the Ocean
Scientists and ICT engineers and specialists European ODIP, EUDAT iCORDI GENESI-DEC, GEOwow GPOD, TATOO and worldwide Research Data Alliance, DAITF( http://www.daitf.ore/ ) to mention some.
The present development status of the research infrastructures for ocean observations 001 and EMSO
enable, as they are now, to outline data sharing practices and protocols across borders and disciplines
although with some limitations. Limiting factors for an easy and extensive data use out of the respective
data production frame and user community can be misalignment of vocabularies and ontology,
metadata Incompleteness and heterogeneities, non standardized QC/QA practices. These issues shall be
the subjects of deepening discussion in CoopEUS to achieve reciprocal understanding and smooth data
interoperability and exchange.
EU Tech Good
European sensors are cutting edge and real time – no distinction between them and
the aff.
COOPEUS 2013
Project CoopEUS WP 4 – Ocean Observation Deliverable D4.1- Fact Finding Report
http://www.coopeus.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/D4_1_Facts_Finding_10_03_FIN.pdf
EMSO will pioneer in delivering multidisciplinary real-time data from the sea by providing data from the
ocean surface through the water column to the benthos and sub-seafloor. It will be facilitated, in part,
by advancements made on Eulerian (fixed) observatory infrastructures during the ESONET Network of Excellence,
EuroSITES programs and the potential follow-on project Fixed- point Open Ocean Observatories (Fix03). And it will work alongside
other key ESFRI infrastructures such as Euro-Argo, SIOS and EPOS. The implementation and
management of EMSO infrastructure are based on an European transnational integration effort at EU
Members State Governments level and on the commitment of research institutions from thirteen
countries. The long-term sustainability and the close interaction with the reference European scientific
community, coordinated through the ESONET- Vision upcoming association, is ensured through the
establishment of a European Consortium (ERIC). Science objectives guide observatory design and dictate the ability to collect
data without employing traditional means, such as research vessels. However, the latter are intended to complement the EMSO network, which
will be serviced by a combination of research vessels and ROVs operations provided by EU Member States in a coordinated network established
by EUROFLEETS. EMSO nodes include cabled and stand-alone observatories with moorings and benthic instruments, while communicating in
real time or in delayed mode, and being serviced through periodic maintenance cruises. Mobile systems, such as ROVs and AUVs will improve
the potential of some of the observatories by expanding their spatial extent. EMSO nodes are conceived as an integration of local and regional
seafloor and water column in situ infrastructures equipped for both generic and science oriented approach (Ruhl et al., 2011). Generic sensor
module While not all scientific questions can be addressed by each individual infrastructure, specific set of variables measured at all EMSO sites
and depths are considered, including temperature, conductivity (salinity), pressure (depth), turbidity, dissolved oxygen, ocean currents, and
passive acoustics. These generic sensors can be used to directly address a wide range of geo-hazard warning and scientific applications related
to understanding natural and anthropogenic variation and the possible impacts of climate change. In the observatory setting, these data can
then be relayed back to shore via seafloor cable (real-time) or satellite telemetry (delayed time). The use of salinity and conductivity sensors
spaced regularly along strings and additional ADCP coverage can capture the themes related to ocean physics. These include understanding
wind- driven and deep-ocean circulation, planetary waves, and interactions between the Benthic Boundary Layer and the seabed.
Solves Environment
Europe solves ecosystem management – academic, government, industry partnerships
ESF 2014
European Science Foundation, Arctic 2050: Towards ecosystem-based management in a changing Arctic
Ocean, March 12 2014, http://www.esf.org/media-centre/ext-single-news/article/arctic-2050-towardsecosystem-based-management-in-a-changing-arctic-ocean-1011.html
About 150 scientists, policy makers and members of industry are gathering today at the 4th European Marine
Board Forum in Brussels to discuss how best to manage the consequences of a changing Arctic Ocean for human
health and well-being. The European Marine Board has convened this flagship event in collaboration with the European Polar Board, working in
association with the European Science Foundation, in the knowledge that industry
and science must work together to
achieve sustainable management of resources such as fishing and oil and gas exploration while at the
same time, protecting and conserving the Arctic environment. Dramatic changes, largely attributed to anthropogenic
activity, have taken place in the Arctic in recent decades. These changes include melting of glaciers and sea ice, altered oceanic current
patterns, movement and accumulation of contaminants and range shifts in many species. As a result of these changes the Arctic region is being
transformed, with wide-ranging impacts and opportunities including the potential for ice-free shipping routes in the future, increased activity in
oil and gas exploration, changes to Arctic fisheries and biodiversity, and impacts on residents’ livelihoods. “At present we are unprepared for
the environmental and societal implications of increased human access to the Arctic that will come with the receding ice” explains Professor
Peter Haugan from the University of Bergen and vice-Chair of the European Marine Board. “We
have not fully anticipated the
consequences of an increase in activities like hydrocarbon exploration, mineral extraction,
bioprospecting and pelagic and demersal fisheries”. The 4th EMB Forum, recognized as an official ICARP III event,
promotes the need for an ecosystem-based management approach in the Arctic Ocean, in order to adapt to
and manage rapid environmental change and commercial exploitation, supporting a key recommendation of the
recently published Arctic Biodiversity Assessment.[1] Moderated by David Shukman, BBC Science Editor, forum sessions include, ‘Living with a
Changing Arctic Ocean’, ‘Utilizing and managing Arctic Ocean resources’ and a session on ‘Arctic Ocean Observation’, building on the European
Marine Board call in 2013 for urgent action to increase our observational capacity across the entire Arctic Ocean (EMB, 2013).[2] Speakers will
include industry representatives from Shell, the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers and the International Maritime Organisation.
The forum provides a platform to address ecosystem-based management in the Arctic Ocean by stimulating
dialogue across sectors to aid common understanding, collaborative actions and sustainability targets.
Later today the forum will culminate with an open panel discussion on the roles of industry and science in achieving sustainable management
of the Arctic Ocean.
Solves Acidification
Europe can develop acidification solutions – experimentation. Data is sufficient.
Riebesell 2009
Ulf, professor of marine biogeochemistry and Head, biological Oceanography, leibniz institute of marine
sciences, eXperimeNtAl ApprOAcHes iN OceAN AcidiFicAtiON
reseArcHhttp://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/22-4_gattuso.pdf
Progress in our ability to make reliable predictions of the impacts of ocean acidification on marine biota
critically depends on our capability to conduct experiments that cover the relevant temporal and spatial
scales. One of the greatest challenges in this context will be scaling up biotic responses at the cellular
and organismal level to the ecosystem level and their parameterization in regional ecosystem and global
biogeochemical models. EPOCA employs a suite of experimental approaches to assess marine biota's
ocean acidification sensitivities, ranging from single species culture experiments to field surveys of the distribution of potentially
sensitive caxa In relation to seawacer carbonate chemistry (Figure BS). Each of these approaches has its distinct strengths and weaknesses.
3ottle and microcosm experiments allow for high replication of multiple CO?/pH treatments jndei well-controlled experimental conditions,
thereby yielding high statistical power. However, they typically lack genetic and species diversity, competitive interac- tion, and the trophic
complexity of natural systems, which complicates extrapolation of results to the real world. Field observations, on the other hand, cover the full
range of biological Interactions and environmental complexities, but they generally provide only a snapshot In time, with little or no
information on the history of the observed biota and environmental conditions prior to sampling. The interpretation of fi eld data In terms of
dose/response relationships Is often obscured by multiple environmental factors simultaneously varying in time and space and by the lack of
replication. Mesocosms, experimental enclosures
that are designed to approximate natural conditions and
that allow manipulation of environmental factors, provide a powerful tool to link small-scale single
species laboratory experiments with observational and correla* tlve approaches applied In field surveys.
A mesocosm study has an advantage over standard laboratory tests In that It maintains a natural community under close to natural selfsustaining conditions, taking Into account relevant aspects of natural systems such as indi- rect effects, biological compensation and recovery,
and ecosystem resilience. Replicate enclosed populations can be experimentally manipulated and the same populations can be sampled
repeatedly over time. Further advantages of flexible-wall. In
situ enclosures are that a large volume of water and most
of its associated organisms can be captured with minimal disturbance. The mesocosm approach is
therefore often considered the experimental ecosystem closest to the real world, without losing the advantage of
reliable reference conditions and replication. To Improve understanding of the under- lying mechanisms of observed responses, which are often
difficult to infer from mesocosm results, and to facilitate scaling up mesocosm results, large-scale enclosure experiments should be closely integrated with well-controlled laboratory experiments and modeling of ecosystem responses. Taking advantage of a recently developed mobile,
flexible wall mesocosm system. EPOCA
will conduct a joint mesocosm CO, perturbation experiment In the high
Arctic, involving marine and atmospheric chemists, molecular and cell biologists, marine ecolo- gists.
and biogeochemists. A total of nine mesocosm units 2 m In diameter and lS-m deep, each containing approximately 45,000 liters of
water, will be deployed In Kongsfjord off Ny-Alesund on Svalbard. The carbonate chemistry of the enclosed water will Initially be manipulated
to cover a range of pCO_, levels from pre-lndustrlal to projected year 2100 values (and possibly beyond) and will be allowed to float freely
during the course of the experiment to mimic varia- tions naturally occurring due to biological activity. The high level of scientific Integration
and cross-disciplinary collaboration of this study Is expected to generate a comprehensive data set that lends itself to analyses of communitylevel ocean acidification sensitivities and ecosyscem/biogeochemical model parameterizations
User Fees
1NC Commercialization CP
Text
The United States Federal Government should adopt a user fee system of commercialization for the
Integrated Ocean Observing System.
Observation One: Competition
It’s is possessive-Commercialization is not USFG exploration or development
Nguyen and Kim 08 (Ngan L.T. Nguyen, graduate from the University of Natural Sciences, Vietnam
and pursuing Masters in Computer Sciences at the University of Tokyo, and Jin-Dong Kim, Senior
research Associate at University of Manchester, Project Lecturer at University of Tokyo, PhD and
Masters in Computer Seicnce at Korea University, Department of Computer Science, University of Tokyo.
2008, Licensed under the Creative CommonsAttribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported,
Exploring Domain Differences for the Design of Pronoun Resolution Systems for Biomedical Text, page
631.
http://www.nltg.brighton.ac.uk/home/Roger.Evans/private/coling2008/cdrom/PAPERS/pdf/PAPERS079.
pdf)
The combination of C netype and P semw features exploits the co-ocurrence of the semantic type of the candidate antecedent and the
context word, which appears in some relationship with the pronoun. This combination feature uses the information similar to
the semantic compatibility features proposed by Yang (Yang et al., 2005) and Bergsma (Bergsma and Lin, 2006). Depending on the pronoun
type, the feature extractor decides which relationship is used. For example,
the resolver successfully recognizes the
antecedent of the pronoun its in this discourse: “HSF3 is constitutively expressed in the erythroblast cell
line HD6 , the lymphoblast cell line MSB , and embryo fibroblasts , and yet its DNA-binding activity is
induced only upon exposure of HD6 cells to heat shock ,” because HSF3 was detected as a Protein entity, which
has a strong association with the governing head noun activity of the pronoun. Another example is the correct anaphora link
between “it” and “the viral protein” in the following sentence, which the other features failed to detect. “Tax , the viral protein , is thought to
be crucial in the development of the disease , since it transforms healthy T cells in vitro and induces tumors in transgenic animals.” The correct
antecedent was recognized due to the bias given to the association of the Protein entity type, and the governing verb, “transform” of the
pronoun. The experimental results show the contribution of the domain knowledge to the pronoun resolution, and the potential combination
use of such knowledge with the syntactic features. Parse features (parg) The combinations of the primitive features of grammatical roles
significantly improved the performance of our resolver. The following examples show the correct anaphora links resulting from using the parse
features: • “By
comparison, PMA is a very inefficient inducer of the jun gene family in Jurkat cells. Similar to
its effect on the induction of AP1 by okadaic acid, PMA inhibits the induction of c-jun mRNA by okadaic
acid.” In this example, the possessive pronoun “its” in the second sentence corefers to “PMA”, the
subject of the preceding sentence. Among the combination features in this group, one noticeable feature is the combination of C
parg, Sdist, and P type which contains the association of the grammatical role of the candidate, the sentence-based distance, and the pronoun
type. The idea of adding this combination is based on the Centering theory (Walker et al., 1998), a theory of discourse successfully used in
pronoun resolution. This simple feature shows the potential of encoding centering theory in the machine learning features, based on the parse
information.
Observation Two: Net Benefits-The CP solves the case avoids spending related
arguments-Creating a system of user fees incentivizes commercialization
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Since its inception, IOOS has operated in much the same way as federal government agencies
traditionally have - set policy, identify requirements, prioritize within those requirements, secure
federal funding , and allocate the funding via the RAs, which in turn fund the organizations that actually
perform the required tasks. The organizations funded by the RAs to perform the desired tasks have
included universities, research institutions, and private sector companies. This has resulted in a loose
organizational structure, in which federal (and sometimes state) agencies provide policy, coordination,
and funding; RAs and their member organizations conduct the science, process data, and operate
observing and other systems; products and services are generated and provided (usually free of charge)
to end users. Fig. 1 illustrates this functional structure. Ideally, funding for these programs follows the
“traditional” trajectory: a large sum at the beginning to start the program up, and then some fraction of
that annually to support ongoing Operations and Maintenance (O&M). Fig. 2 depicts this “traditional”
funding profile. While significant progress has been made recently, the unfortunate fact is that funding
for both initial start up costs and O&M have been less than anticipated. As a result, worthy new projects
remain on the sidelines, and viable observing assets funded previously are beginning to be
decommissioned or inactivated due to inadequate O&M funding. In response to this situation, some
have called for a retreat from the IOOS organizational concept and a return to individual efforts by
member organizations. Others retain faith in the IOOS concept, but argue that the enterprise simply
needs to be more effective at articulating the requirements and hazards of inaction to the appropriate
members of Congress. This paper proposes a third option - the embrace of commercialization as a
program objective for IOOS the RAs, and the oceanography enterprise. The active participation of
universities and research institutions in IOOS and the RAs has been a cornerstone of their success to
date and is a logical extension of previous practices in the academic arena. The avoidance of redundancy
in effort and the benefits of cooperation have long been recognized in establishing and operating
successful programs in the academic community, and participation in IOOS by university and research
institutions has been high. However, the participation of private sector businesses has been less
widespread . A partial list of reasons would include the lack of a clear answer to why it is in a company's
interest to participate, a business environment that is generally more competitive than cooperative, and
a desire to protect proprietary information. Unfortunately, the current structure and functionality of
the RAs does little to address or correct those concerns, and in many ways actually exacerbates
them. The linchpins to this proposal are the embrace of commercialization using private sector
businesses as an organizational goal and the imposition of appropriate fees on the end users for the
products and services they receive . Aside from attracting more business members to IOOS and the
RAs, the imposition of fees would immediately establish a two-way market feedback mechanism
between the end users and the IOOS/RA community. This feedback mechanism is the most effective
means available to help identify those projects that truly add value and address significant end user
needs - if no one is willing to pay for a particular product or service (or pay enough to cover the costs of
generation), then by definition it is not worth the money being spent on it.
A2: CP Illegitimate
---Literature supports the counterplan and makes it predictable. Our Woll evidence
contrast the plan with the CP which proves it’s germane and educational
---Test “Its” which is a core source of negative ground on the topic
---Net benefits check abuse and provide a germane policy warrant for voting negative.
They shouldn’t get to pick and choose which parts of the plan to defend.
---Doesn’t waste the 1AC-The affirmative still sets the the initial grund for the debate.
The negative must still find some aspect of the affirmative plan with which to
compete. The negative isn’t obligated to run arguments that were preempted in the
1AC. It’s more fair to let both teams partially determine ground for the debate.
---Don’t trivialize the debate-If the difference between the plan and the counterplan is
large enough to generate a net benefit, than it’s worth debating. This argument isn’t
unique as many affirmatives are only a small departure from the status quo.
---Risk-Reward-The affirmative generates offense from the way their plan would be
implemented. That reward should be offset by allowing the negative to test the plan.
---Punishment doesn’t fit the crime-The judge should evaluate theory like extratopicality. The counterplan should be judged outside their jurisdiction and a lost
option for the negative to advocate.
A2: Conditionality
---Real World-Policy makers do consider multiple options at once. Their argument guts one
of the core elements of policy discussion.
---Best policy justifies-Multiple options make it more likeley that the best policy will be found. The
role of the judge is to endorse the best policy at the end of the round. If a conditional counterplan has
been proven to be the best policy, it’s perverse not to allow it to be endorsed.
---Education-Argument breadth has benefits. If depth were the only value, teams wouldn’t be allowed
to debate more than one advantage or disadvanatge per round. Exploring the range of issues on a
subject is also intellectualy important.
---Time limits aren’t an answer
A. Time is finite in debate. Running one argument inherently trades off with another.
B. Other arguments make this non-unique. Multipe topicality arguments, two card disads, or kritiks
equally distort time.
C. Creating time pressure and making time based decisions is an inherent part of debate strategy. It’s an
acceptable part of all other debate arguments.
---Counterplans don’t introduce unique complexity into the round. The counterplan may
just be a minor alteration of the plan. Disadvantage s also raise multiple issues.
---Permutations justify-Retaining the status quo as an option is reciprocal to the affirmative’s ability
to advocate the plan or permutation.
---Conditionality is reciprocal to the affirmative’s ability to select a case . Since the
affirmative selects the ground for the debate they enjoy a huge preparation advantage. Allowing
hypothetical negative arguments helps to defeat this edge.
---Advocacy concerns aren’t decisive.
A. In the real world, policies are attacked from avariety of perspectives. In debate there is only one
negative team, so to encompass the true range of potential counter-affirmative advocacy, multiple
positions must be allowed.
B. Most debate practice isn’t consistent with the advocacy paradigm. Strategic concessions by the
affirmative and permutations allow the affirmative to advocate multiple positions.
---Not a voting issue. Emphasis on punishment incentivizes a race to bottom discouraging
substsantive debates.
2NC A2 Perm-Do the CP
---Severs it’s-Extend our Kim evidence-Commercialization is not USFG exploration or
development-Severance permutations are illegitimate because no counterplan would
compete if the 2AC could pick and choose which parts of the plan to defend.
---Severs increase-exploration doesn’t increase unless the private sector fills in via
user fees. The CP doesn’t fiat an expansion of exploration. We read solvency evidence
that commercialization would naturally expand the program
---Privatization is distinct from federal government
Barbier 7 (Carl, US District Judge, TIEN VAN COA, ET AL VERSUS GREGORY WILSON, ET AL CIVIL ACTION
NO: 07-7464 SECTION: J(1) UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF LOUISIANA
2007 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 87653)
However, in their motion to remand, Plaintiffs argue that as an independent contractor, P&J is not an
employee of the federal government, and consequently does not enjoy derivative immunity and cannot
invoke the FTCA. Plaintiffs cite United States v. New Mexico in support of the notion that private
contractors, whether prime or subcontractors, are not government employees nor are they agents of
the federal government. 455 U.S. 720, 102 S. Ct. 1373, 71 L. Ed. 2d 580 (1982). According to the Court,
"[t]he congruence of professional interests between the contractors and the Federal Government is not
complete" because "the contractors remained distinct entities pursuing private ends, and their actions
remained [*4] commercial activities carried on for profit." Id. at 740; see also Powell v. U.S. Cartridge
Co., 339 U.S. 497, 70 S. Ct. 755, 94 L. Ed. 1017 (1950).
---That explodes limits and allows for the thousands of private actors to become
individual plan mechanisms – destroys core generics like agent counterplans or politics
and explodes the neg research burden – that’s a key internal link to clash which
allows for research skills and decisionmaking.
---Independently, The word “substantially” means that the government must play the
main role.
CFR No Date (Code of Federal Regulations, Subpart 3.1—Safeguards,
http://www.acquisition.gov/far/html/Subpart%203_1.html)
(3) “Participating substantially” means that the official’s involvement is of significance to the matter.
Substantial participation requires more than official responsibility, knowledge, perfunctory
involvement, or involvement on an administrative or peripheral issue. Participation may be substantial even though
it is not determinative of the outcome of a particular matter. A finding of substantiality should be based not only on the
effort devoted to a matter, but on the importance of the effort. While a series of peripheral
involvements may be insubstantial, the single act of approving or participating in a critical step may
be substantial. However, the review of procurement documents solely to determine compliance with
regulatory, administrative, or budgetary procedures, does not constitute substantial participation in a
procurement.
A2: Perm-Do Both
Links to our spending based net benefits or it severs out of it’s
2NC Solvency
The CP solves the case
A. Economic incentives-User fees encourage the private sector to take on a larger role
for the financing of IOOS-fills in for current funding gaps-That’s Woll from the 1NC
B. Re-allocation-Commercialization allows the government to spend scare resources
on other IOOS related projects-solves better than the aff
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A major side benefit to this construct is that it provides a second significant source of funding for the
enterprise . Obviously, end users are not going to pay fees for a prospective product or service, so there
will remain a need for government funding to start projects up. However, the fees should be set at a
level that will provide a large portion ( ideally all) of the O&M funding required to sustain projects over
time. This second source of funding has the net effect of freeing up previous government O&M funds
to be re-applied to start other new projects - such that the government funding truly becomes a type of
seed funding, helping worthy projects get off the ground and turning them over to operational
organizations. Fig. 3 depicts how the funding profile could change over time under this proposal.
C. This is the most effective funding strategy
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SECTION IVCONCLUSION
The IOOS program offers an unparalleled opportunity for all members of the oceanography enterprise to
take part in a collaborative effort - one that provides the best possible stewardship of taxpayer dollars
while helping advance practical scientific knowledge about the world's oceans. With the breadth and
scope of challenges facing the ocean environment, such an approach is not only prudent - it offers
the only reasonable chance of success in the future fiscal environment.
Quite simply, the federal government will not be able to fund every worthy project, so it is
incumbent on IOOS and the oceanography enterprise to make the most of every dollar. That means
cooperating to make choices from an enterprise perspective, making the hard choices to eliminate once
promising projects that have not panned out as expected, and being willing to challenge and change
habits that have been successful in years past.
D. Their authors support the CP
U.S. IOOS SUMMIT REPORT 13
A New Decade for the Integrated Ocean Observing System
http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/about/governance/summit2012/usioos_summit_report.pdf
Step 8. Increase Advocacy. There is a need to develop and maintain advocacy for U.S. IOOS. Challenge.
U.S. IOOS is a line item in the NOAA budget, but it remains a largely unfunded federal mandate. The
existing approach of individual agency ocean observing programs addressing agency- unique missions
with uncoordinated agency budgets is inadequate. This fragmented Federal approach .ies at the hea't of
the U.S. IOOS challenge to thrive. Advocacy will develop naturally if stakeholders and users are actively
engaged and their requirements are being met. But a proactive advocacy strategy is also needed. There
are many users that have come to rely on U.S. IOOS products without providing any support for the
system. The ocean observing community is not adept at turning that supportive relationship into
advocacy for continued or expanded funding. Significant, well-qualified human resources are necessary
to maintain effective user engagement. U.S. IOOS must recognize the importance of this process and
support implementation of a user engagement infrastructure in order to meet the vision of U.S. IOOS
for the next decade .
A2: Obstacles to Commericalization
The CPs restructuring solves
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SECTION IIIADDITIONAL CHANGES TO OPTIMIZE ENTERPRISE EFFORT Commercializing the products and
services provided to end users by IOOS and its member organizations would provide a clear definition of
successful projects - those that can garner sustainment O&M funding from user fees. However, for the
enterprise to be most effective and most efficient, one further step must be considered. Specifically, a
realignment of organizational responsibilities to take maximum advantage of the strengths of the
differing types of member organizations would yield additional benefits. There are four broad categories
of IOOS participants: government, academic (university/research institution), business, and RA/IOOS
staff. A summary of each of their strengths, weaknesses, and proposed roles is provided in Table 1.
These proposed roles are reflected graphically in Fig. 4, which depicts a more structured and hierarchical
organization than is currently in place. In this type of structure, the government actors (federal and
state) would provide policy, coordination, and funding. The academic sector would focus on science,
research, and providing high quality review and technical advice to regulators and other government
actors. Businesses would focus on execution and serve as the bridge to the end user. The IOOS and RA
staffs would coordinate between all of the levels, provide project oversight, and administer a data
repository. This is admittedly a significant realignment - one which would ask some member
organizations to forgo activities at which they have been very successful. However, when approached
from an enterprise perspective, the benefits become clear. Table 2 summarizes some of the major cost
benefit comparisons between the existing organizational structure and that proposed in this paper.
Drones
Drones/Robots Solvency
T-rex AUV’s are effective, high tech, and solve data collection in all areas of the globe
McGann et al 8 [Conor McGann, Frederic Py, Kanna Rajan, Hans Thomas, Richard Henthorn, Rob McEwen Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.
2008, “A Deliberative Architecture for AUV Control,” http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=04543343 PDF //jweideman]
Oceanography has traditionally relied on ship-based observations. These have recently been augmented
by robotic platforms such as Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV) [1-3], which are untethered
powered mobile robots able to carry a range of payloads efficiently over large distances in the deep
ocean. A common design relies on a modular tube-like structure with propulsion at the stern and various sensors, computers and batteries taking up the bulk of
the tube (Fig. 1). AUVs have demonstrated their utility in oceanographic research in gathering time series data
by repeated water-column surveys [4], detailed bathymetric maps of the ocean floor in areas of tectonic
activity [5,6] and performed hazardous under-ice missions [7].Typically AUVs do not communicate with the support ship or shore
while submerged and rely on limited stored battery packs while operating continuously for tens of hours. Current AUV control systems [8]
are a variant of the behavior-based Subsumption architecture [9]. A behavior is a modular encapsulation of a specific control task and includes acquisition of a GPS
fix, descent to a target depth, drive to a given waypoint, enforcement of a mission depth envelope etc. An operator defines each plan as a collection of behaviors
with specific start and end times as well as maximum durations, which are scripted a priori using simple mission planning tools. In practice, missions predominantly
consist of sequential behaviors with duration and task specific parameters equivalent to a linear plan with limited flexibility in task duration. Such an approach
becomes less effective as mission uncertainty increases. Further, the architecture offers no support to manage the potentially complex interactions that may result
amongst behaviors, pushing a greater cognitive burden on behavior developers and mission planners. This
paper describes an automated
onboard planning system to generate robust mission plans using system state and desired goals. By
capturing explicit interactions between behaviors as plan constraints in the domain model and the use
of goal oriented commanding, we expect this approach to reduce the cognitive burden on AUV
operators. Our interest in the near term is to incorporate decision-making capability to deal with a range of dynamic and episodic ocean phenomenon that
cannot be observed with scripted plans. The remainder of this paper is laid out as follows. Section II lays out the architecture of our autonomy system, section III
details the experimental results to date, related work follows in section IV with concluding remarks in section V.II. THE T-REX ARCHITECTURE T-REX
(TeleoReactive EXecutive) is a goal-oriented system, with embedded automated planning [14,15] and adaptive
execution. It encapsulates the long-standing notion of a sense-deliberate-act cycle in what is typically
considered a hybrid architecture where sensing, planning and execution are interleaved. In order to
make embedded planning scalable the system enables the scope of deliberation to be partitioned
functionally and temporally and to ensure the current state of the agent is kept consistent and complete
during execution. While T-REX was built for a specific underwater robotics application, the principles behind its design are
applicable in any domain where deliberation and execution are intertwined.Fig. 2 shows a conceptual view of a Teleo-Reactive Agent. An agent is viewed as the
coordinator of a set of concurrent control loops. Each control loop is embodied in a Teleo-Reactor (or reactor for short) that encapsulates alldetails of how to
accomplish its control objectives. Arrows represent a messaging protocol for exchanging facts and goals between reactors: thin arrows represent observations of
current state; thick arrows represent goals to be accomplished. Reactors are differentiated in 3 ways: • Functional scope: indicating the state variables of concern
for deliberation and action. • Temporal scope: indicating the look-ahead window over which to deliberate. • Timing requirements: the latency within which this
component must deliberate for goals in its planning horizon. Fig. 2 for example, shows four different reactors; the Mission Manager provides high-level directives to
satisfy the scientific and operational goals of the mission: its temporal scope is the whole mission, taking minutes to deliberate if necessary. The
Navigator
and Science Operator manage the execution of sub-goals generated by the Mission Manager. The
temporal scope for both is in the order of a minute even as they differ in their functional scope. Each refines
high-level directives into executable commands depending on current system state. The Science Operator is able to provide local directives to the Navigator. For
example if it detects an ocean front it can request the navigation mode to switch from a Yo-Yo pattern in
the vertical plane to a Zig-Zag pattern in the horizontal plane, to have better coverage of the area.
Deliberation may safely occur at a latency of 1 second for these reactors. The Executive provides an interface to a modified version of the existing
AUV functional layer. It encapsulates access to commands and vehicle state variables. The Executive is reasonably approximated as having zero latency within the
timing model of our application since it will accomplish a goal received with no measurable delay, or not at all; in other words it does not deliberate.
AUV tech provides effective mapping capabilities
Yoerger et al. 7 [Dana R. Yoerger1, Michael Jakuba1, Albert M. Bradley1, and Brian Bingham2 1 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 2 Franklin W. Olin
College of Engineering. 1/1/2007, “Techniques for Deep Sea Near Bottom Survey Using an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle,”
http://business.highbeam.com/437280/article-1G1-156721474/techniques-deep-sea-near-bottom-survey-using-autonomous //jweideman]
This paper reports navigation
algorithms that enable an underwater vehicle to accomplish fully autonomous
scientific surveys in the deep sea. These algorithms allow the vehicle to determine its position, to
bottom-follow (maintain a constant height above sea oor terrain) and avoid obstacles, and to
autonomously focus on the highest value parts of a survey. Scientific exploration of the deep sea has
traditionally been performed using inhabited submersibles, towed vehicles, and tethered remotely
operated vehicles (ROVs). Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have begun to replace these
vehicles for mapping and survey missions. Autonomous vehicles complement the capabilities of these
existing systems, offering superior mapping capabilities, improved logistics, and improved utilization of
the surface support vessel. AUVs are particularly well suited to systematic preplanned surveys using
sonars, in situ chemical sensors, and cameras in the rugged deep sea terrain that is the focus of many
scienti c expeditions. Inhabited submersibles and ROVs remain the only option for manipulation tasks such as sampling, deploying and
recovering experiments on the sea oor, detailed inspection, and servicing subsea instruments; however, high resolution maps from
AUVs can facilitate these tasks.Figure 1 shows the Autonomous Benthic Explorer (ABE), a 6000 m autonomous underwater vehicle
that our team has been developing and deploying for ne-scale quantitative survey and mapping of the sea floor. ABE can survey at constant
depth or bottom-follow even in rugged terrain, and it can autonomously determine its position and drive track lines with a precision on the
order of several meters. ABE
carries a variety of sensors, including scanning and multibeam sonars; a
magnetometer; a digital still camera; two sets of pumped conductivity and temperature probes; an acoustic
Doppler current pro ler (ADCP); several chemical sensors for hydrothermal plume mapping; and occasional
mission-specific instrumentation. ABE's shape and thruster placement allow it to maintain control over a wide range of speed, and
to stop or back up if necessary to avoid obstacles. ABE descends to the sea oor with the aid of a descent weight. ABE glides in a controlled spiral
trajectory to ensure that it reaches the desired starting point without consuming signi cant battery energy. After reaching the sea oor and
performing a series of checks, ABE releases its descent weight to become neutrally buoyant and begins its survey. Throughout the dive,
including descent, ABE uses acoustic long-baseline (LBL) transponder navigation and, when in range of the bottom (< 300 m), bottom-lock
acoustic Doppler measurements to determine its position and velocity.A dive can consist of a mix of hydrothermal plume survey at constant
depth, sonar and magnetics survey following the sea oor (at heights of 50{ 200 m), and digital photography (height of 5 m). ABE usually surveys
until its batteries are depleted (between 15 and 30 hours depending on sensor payload and terrain). At the end of its dive, ABE releases its
ascent weight to become positively buoyant and returns to the surface. The remainder of this report is organized as follows: Sect. 2 summarizes
scienti c survey tasks that have motivated our AUV work, Sect. 3 reports an algorithm for acoustic positioning, Sect. 4 reports methods for
terrainfollowing and obstacle avoidance, Sect. 5 reports a technique for automated nested survey, and Sect. 6 presents a brief summary and
conclusion.2 Precisely Navigated, Coregistered AUV Surveys Proximity to the sea oor, precise navigation, robust control, and
coregistered
sensors permit an AUV to characterize the sea floor and the near-bottom environment with
complementary sensing modalities on the meter-scale. This section summarizes scienti c work in which ABE-derived
bathymetric maps, magnetics maps, digital photos, and hydrographic maps have played critical enabling roles. Meter-scale
bathymetric and magnetic maps made using ABE have provided geologists and geophysicists with new perspectives on important sea oor
processes. Combined
magnetics and bathymetric maps show crustal magnetization, which permits the age
and thickness of lava flows to be determined. Combined maps have also been used to identify volcanic features such as lava
flow units [1], delimit their fronts, and estimate their thicknesses [2, 3]. Meter-scale bathymetric maps show tectonic
features such as faults with great clarity, even enabling them to be resolved into multiple components
[4]. In other cases, these maps have revealed the relationship between tectonic features and morphology, such as volcanic domes [3], and
hydrothermal vents [1]. ABE bathymetric maps have proved to be of su cient detail and precision for one collaborator to reconstruct the
tectonic history of a rift valley by computationally removing faults [5]. The result revealed a dome-like structure from which the valley evolved.
On a recent cruise to the Atlantis Massif, detailed renderings of faults and the hydrothermal structures provided critical clues as to the
mechanisms controlling the hydro-geology at the newly discovered Lost City hydrothermal vent site [6]. Digital photographs of the sea oor from
ABE have provided details of lava ow types and e usion rates [3], sediment cover, and the distribution of benthic organisms. Water column data
from ABE yields indications of hydrothermal plume activity and has been used to estimate heat ux from known hydrothermal vent sites, and to
locate undiscovered sites on the sea oor. To estimate the heat ux from vent elds on the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Northeast Paci c (47 540 N,
129 100 W) [7], ABE measured temperature, salinity, and threeaxis water velocity while repeatedly executing a tight grid pattern above the eld
[8]. Recently ABE located and preliminarily characterized several previously unmapped hydrothermal sites on the Eastern Lau Spreading Center
(ELSC) south of Tonga (21 080 S, 175 120 W) [9]; and on the Southern Mid Atlantic Ridge (SMAR) north of Ascension Island (7 570 S, 14 220 W)
[10]. In each case, we started with clues provided by towed systems that indicated a vent site within several kilometers. ABE then executed a
three-dive sequence [9, 10] of grid patterns at increasing ner scales and increasingly close to the sea oor. To plan each dive, the scienti c party
carefully scrutinized the data from the previous dive along with any available ancillary data.These vent prospecting missions capitalized on
ABE's ability to conduct precisely navigated surveys at scales O (m{km), to operate over rugged terrain, and relied on nearly all of ABE's sensing
modalities. Figure 2 shows tracklines from sequence of dives designed to locate and survey a vent site on ELSC along with a sampling of the
variety of data products acquired and used to plan each stage of the dive sequence. ABE mapped plume activity (temperature, optical
backscatter, and reduction-oxidization potential (eH) [11]) to pinpoint the locations of plumes emanating from the eld, built ne-scale
bathymetric maps of the vent elds and surrounding environment, and nally photographed the vent structures and animal populations. The
remainder of this paper presents the underlying algorithms that enabled ABE to perform this work.This paper reports navigation algorithms
that enable an underwater vehicle to accomplish fully autonomous scienti c surveys in the deep sea. These algorithms allow the vehicle to
determine its position, to bottom-follow (maintain a constant height above sea oor terrain) and avoid obstacles, and to autonomously focus on
the highest value parts of a survey. Scienti c exploration of the deep sea has traditionally been performed using inhabited submersibles, towed
vehicles, and tethered remotely operated vehicles (ROVs). Autonomous
underwater vehicles (AUVs) have begun to
replace these vehicles for mapping and survey missions. Autonomous vehicles complement the capabilities of these
existing systems, o ering superior mapping capabilities, improved logistics, and improved utilization of the surface support vessel. AUVs are
particularly well suited to systematic preplanned surveys using sonars, in situ chemical sensors, and cameras in the rugged deep sea terrain that
is the focus of many scienti c expeditions. Inhabited submersibles and ROVs remain the only option for manipulation tasks such as sampling,
deploying and recovering experiments on the sea oor, detailed inspection, and servicing subsea instruments; however, high resolution maps
from AUVs can facilitate these tasks.Figure 1 shows the Autonomous Benthic
Explorer (ABE), a 6000 m autonomous
underwater vehicle that our team has been developing and deploying for ne-scale quantitative survey
and mapping of the seafloor. ABE can survey at constant depth or bottom-follow even in rugged terrain, and it can autonomously
determine its position and drive tracklines with a precision on the order of several meters. ABE carries a variety of sensors, including scanning
and multibeam sonars; a magnetometer; a digital still camera; two sets of pumped conductivity and temperature probes; an acoustic Doppler
current pro ler (ADCP); several chemical sensors for hydrothermal plume mapping; and occasional mission-speci c instrumentation. ABE's shape
and thruster placement allow it to maintain control over a wide range of speed, and to stop or back up if necessary to avoid obstacles. ABE
descends to the sea oor with the aid of a descent weight. ABE glides in a controlled spiral trajectory to ensure that it reaches the desired
starting point without consuming signi cant battery energy. After reaching the sea oor and performing a series of checks, ABE releases its
descent weight to become neutrally buoyant and begins its survey. Throughout the dive, including descent, ABE uses acoustic long-baseline
(LBL) transponder navigation and, when in range of the bottom (< 300 m), bottom-lock acoustic Doppler measurements to determine its
position and velocity.A dive can consist of a mix of hydrothermal plume survey at constant depth, sonar and magnetics survey following the sea
oor (at heights of 50{ 200 m), and digital photography (height of 5 m). ABE usually surveys until its batteries are depleted (between 15 and 30
hours depending on sensor payload and terrain). At the end of its dive, ABE releases its ascent weight to become positively buoyant and returns
to the surface. The remainder of this report is organized as follows: Sect. 2 summarizes scienti c survey tasks that have motivated our AUV
work, Sect. 3 reports an algorithm for acoustic positioning, Sect. 4 reports methods for terrainfollowing and obstacle avoidance, Sect. 5 reports
a technique for automated nested survey, and Sect. 6 presents a brief summary and conclusion.2 Precisely Navigated, Coregistered AUV
Surveys Proximity to the sea oor, precise navigation, robust control, and coregistered sensors permit an AUV to characterize the sea oor and
the near-bottom environment with complementary sensing modalities on the meter-scale. This section summarizes scienti c work in which ABEderived bathymetric maps, magnetics maps, digital photos, and hydrographic maps have played critical enabling roles. Meter-scale bathymetric
and magnetic maps made using ABE have provided geologists and geophysicists with new perspectives on important sea oor processes.
Combined magnetics and bathymetric maps show crustal magnetization, which permits the age and thickness of lava ows to be determined.
Combined maps have also been used to identify volcanic features such as lava ow units [1], delimit their fronts, and estimate their thicknesses
[2, 3]. Meter-scale bathymetric maps show tectonic features such as faults with great clarity, even enabling them to be resolved into multiple
components [4]. In other cases, these maps have revealed the relationship between tectonic features and morphology, such as volcanic domes
[3], and hydrothermal vents [1]. ABE bathymetric
maps have proved to be of sufficient detail and precision for one
collaborator to reconstruct the tectonic history of a rift valley by computationally removing faults [5]. The
result revealed a dome-like structure from which the valley evolved. On a recent cruise to the Atlantis Massif, detailed renderings of faults and
the hydrothermal structures provided critical clues as to the mechanisms controlling the hydro-geology at the newly discovered Lost City
hydrothermal vent site [6]. Digital photographs of the sea oor from ABE have provided details of lava ow types and e usion rates [3], sediment
cover, and the distribution of benthic organisms. Water column data from ABE yields indications of hydrothermal plume activity and has been
used to estimate heat ux from known hydrothermal vent sites, and to locate undiscovered sites on the sea oor. To estimate the heat ux from
vent elds on the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Northeast Paci c (47 540 N, 129 100 W) [7], ABE measured temperature, salinity, and threeaxis water
velocity while repeatedly executing a tight grid pattern above the eld [8]. Recently ABE located and preliminarily characterized several
previously unmapped hydrothermal sites on the Eastern Lau Spreading Center (ELSC) south of Tonga (21 080 S, 175 120 W) [9]; and on the
Southern Mid Atlantic Ridge (SMAR) north of Ascension Island (7 570 S, 14 220 W) [10]. In each case, we started with clues provided by towed
systems that indicated a vent site within several kilometers. ABE then executed a three-dive sequence [9, 10] of grid patterns at increasing ner
scales and increasingly close to the sea oor. To plan each dive, the scienti c party carefully scrutinized the data from the previous dive along
with any available ancillary data.These vent prospecting missions capitalized on ABE's
ability to conduct precisely navigated
surveys at scales O (m{km), to operate over rugged terrain, and relied on nearly all of ABE's sensing
modalities. Figure 2 shows tracklines from sequence of dives designed to locate and survey a vent site on ELSC along with a sampling of the
variety of data products acquired and used to plan each stage of the dive sequence. ABE mapped plume activity (temperature, optical
backscatter, and reduction-oxidization potential (eH) [11]) to pinpoint the locations of plumes emanating from the eld, built ne-scale
bathymetric maps of the vent elds and surrounding environment, and nally photographed the vent structures and animal populations. The
remainder of this paper presents the underlying algorithms that enabled ABE to perform this work.
Inherency
SQ IOOS/Data solves
IOOS already did enough mapping
IOOS report to congress 13 [Official US IOOS report sent to congress. 2013, “U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) 2013 Report to
Congress,” http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/about/governance/ioos_report_congress2013.pdf //jweideman]
Gliders are used to monitor water currents, temperature, and biological information such as dissolved oxygen
and nitrate. This information offers a more complete picture of what is happening at and below the ocean surface,
and may allow scientists to detect trends that otherwise might have gone undetected. Gliders are assuming a prominent and
growing role in ocean science due to their unique capabilities for collecting data safely and at relatively low cost in
remote locations, both in deep water and at the surface. An advantage of gliders is that they can be quickly deployed to areas of greatest need.
A National Glider Asset Map was deployed by the U.S. IOOS program in 2012 and will include all historic
and current glider flights once it is completed. The map shown on the right includes data from glider
missions since 2005 from Southern California (SCCOOS), the Pacific Northwest (NANOOS), Central and
Northern California (CeNCOOS) and the Mid- Atlantic (MARACOOS) regional glider operations. The glider
asset map can be viewed at: http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/observ jng/observing assets/glider asset
_map.html.
Squo solves satellite and other environmental data
Rogers and Gulledge 10 [Will Rogers is a Research Assistant at the Center for a New American Security. Dr. Jay Gulledge is a Non-Resident Senior
Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and is the Senior Scientist and Science and Impacts Program Director at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
April 2010. “Lost in Translation: Closing the Gap Between Climate Science and National Security Policy”
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/Lost%20in%20Translation_Code406_Web_0.pdf //jweideman]
The intelligence community continues to declassify one-meter resolution images taken from its satellite
systems, giving climate scientists access to images 15 to 30 times sharper than the next- best systems
controlled by NASA and commercial entities such as Google.25 These and a plethora of other
advancements have produced a greater understanding of the Earth's climate system as well as the
affects of human activities (or anthro- pogenic influences) on the climate system. The amount of observational data and
output from climate models is growing quickly. For example, there are terabytes of highly credible
climate change projections now available from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report that have never
been examined in detail - particularly with regard to local and near-term projections, by decade, to the end of the
century and beyond. The sheer vol- ume of available but unanalyzed data creates the potential for many policyrelevant questions to be answered today, if only decision makers were aware of the data, knew how to access it and could make sense of it and if more scientists understood the needs of decision makers and were motivated to provide it to them in a more useful form. In the future, as even more data
the National Polarorbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). Which will orbit the Earth every 100 minutes, "provid- ing
global coverage, monitoring environmental conditions, collecting, disseminating and process- ing data
about the Earth's weather, atmosphere, oceans, land and near-space environment."26 The private sector
has started to contribute to the flow of new information as well. For example, there are new publicprivate partnerships to advance climate science data collection and analysis with new satel- lite
systems.27 Meanwhile, other private companies arc embarking on similar solo endeavors, in part, in recognition of the likelihood that there will be a surge in
become available, new efforts are emerging to handle the onslaught of information. NOAA is leading one public sector effort,
the demand for collection and analysis of climate information. Given the proliferation of new tools (e.g., climate satellites and advanced computer models) and data
acquisition systems, there will be no short- age of climate information (especially data related to present conditions and short-term trends). The question for the
national security community is whether its unique needs will be met. Since the community has not traditionally based decisions on climate change projections or
assessments, there are few processes in place to ensure that the necessary information will be available when it is needed and in a form that is useful.
Solvency
Satellites
Can’t solve without new satellites
Parthemore and Rogers 11 [Christine Parethemore, Senior Advisor at United States Department of Defense Adjunct Professor, Security Studies
Program at Johns Hopkins University Past Fellow, CNAS at Center for a New American Security Research Assistant at Bob Woodward Education Georgetown
University The Ohio State University. Will Rogers, works at cnas. July 2011, “Blinded: The Decline of U.S. Earth Monitoring Capabilities and Its Consequences for
National Security” http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Blinded_ParthemoreRogers_0.pdf //jweideman]
Networks of satellites, ground-based sensors and unmanned aerial vehicles - the assets America uses to
monitor and understand environmental change and its consequences - are going dark. By 2016, only
seven of NASA's current 13 earth monitoring satellites are expected to be operational, leaving a crucial
information gap that will hinder national security planning.1 Meanwhile, efforts to prevent this capability gap
have been plagued by budget cuts, launch failures, technical deficiencies, chronic delays and poor
interagency coordination. Without the information that these assets provide, core U.S. foreign policy
and national security interests will be at risk. The United States depends on satellite systems for managing the unconventional challenges
of the 21st century in ways that are rarely acknowledged. This is particularly true for satellites that monitor climate change
and other environmental trends, which, in the words of the Department of Defense's (DOD's) 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, "will shape the
operating environment, roles, and missions" of DOD and "may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and
militaries around the world.'- Examples abound of how climate change is shap- ing the strategic environment and of why the U.S. government needs continued
access to earth moni- toring data: • The opening of the Arctic is requiring the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard to execute new missions in the High North, including more
frequent search and rescue missions. • The receding Himalayan glaciers and related reduced river flows to South Asia may shape the future relationship between
India and Pakistan. Defense planners and diplomats will need to monitor changes in the glaciers that supply rivers in Pakistan in order to determine whether access
to water will exacerbate existing military and diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan - states that have longstanding grievances over how they share water.
• In
the South China Sea, changing ocean conditions are altering fish migration, leading neighboring
countries to compete over access to billions of dol- lars in fish resources; this situation could escalate
into serious conflict in contested territorial waters. • DOD and development agencies rely on earth
monitoring systems to monitor urbanization, migration patterns and internal population displacement. Several government agencies also rely on earth
monitoring capabilities to analyze compliance with deforestation and emissions measures in international climate change treaties, just as the government
relies on space-based capabilities to monitor and verify compliance with non-proliferation treaties. Responding to
environmental and climate change trends requires a steady stream of reliable information from earth
monitoring satellites that is quickly becoming unavailable. Ideally, the U.S. government would replace its aging earth moni- toring
satellites. Yet the current political and fiscal environments constrain available resources, making it less likely that Congress will appropri- ate funds to wholly replace
old systems. Given this reality, U.S. policymakers should use existing systems more efficiently, improve information sharing among interagency partners and
leverage international partners' investments in their own systems in order to bolster U.S. climate and envi- ronmental data collection capabilities. The Capability
Gap Policymakers have known about the challenges stemming from America's declining earth moni- toring capabilities for years. In 2005,
a report by the
National Research Council warned that America's "system of environmental satellites is at risk of
collapse."1 Key U.S. government agencies, including the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO),
have recently reiter- ated those warnings. According to an April 2010 report by the GAO, "gaps in coverage ranging from 1 to 11 years are expected beginning as
soon as 2015" and "are expected to affect the continuity of important climate and space weather measure- ments, such as our understanding of how weather cycles
impact global food production."4 These gaps will include key environmental and climate monitoring functions, from radar altimeters that measure changes in land
and ocean surfaces (such as sea level rise and desertification) to aerosol polarimetry sensors that can measure and distin- guish between sulfates, organic and black
carbon and other atmospheric particles. "Meteorologists,
oceanographers, and climatologists reported that these gaps
will seriously impact ongoing and planned earth monitoring activities," according to the GAO.s One recent interagency
effort to close such gaps has fallen short. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) was designed to translate climate and
environmental data (including data from exten- sive existing databases) into products and analysis for DOD, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). However, after lone delays, cost overruns and inadequatecoordination among the partners in the interagency working group, the project
was split into two components (as an alternative to being cancelled completely); DOD and the civilian agencies are moving forward separately with their own
projects in order to sustain the capabilities that NPOESS was intended to provide.
Tech can’t solve-political will
Technology can’t resolve governance problems.
Malone et al. 2014
Thomas C., University of Maryland Professor of Marine Biology, A global ocean observing system
framework for sustainable development, Marine Policy 43 (2014) 262–272
As emphasized by Browman et al. [291, governance,
not the science and technology behind ocean observing
systems, is the weak link in the implementation chain for EBAs. Historically, governments have responded to
changes in ecosystem states and their impacts in an ad hoc fashion focusing on sector by sector
management (environmental protection and the management of fisheries, water, transportation, oil and gas extraction, wind energy,
tourism and recreation, etc) rather than on an integrated, holistic strategy for managing human uses of
ecosystem services [4262734]- Limitations of this sector-based approach to govern- ance are compounded
by inherent complexities in managing a growing number of activities across different levels of
government, across agencies (ministries) within governments, and (for multi- national regional entities such as the European Union) among
governments. As a result, competition for funding among govern- ment agencies often inhibits needed
collaborations and can result in policy choices that are detrimental to ecosystems and their services and
dependent coastal communities. The limitations of sector-specific 'stove pipe" approaches to the stewardship of ecosystem services have been
recognized for decades and are reflected in national and international calls for EBAs to managing human uses and adapting to climate change
"3.4.28.153). An effective set of institutional
responses to achieve sustainable development must address the
reality that current governance arrangements are not well tuned to the challenges of formulating,
implementing and improving EBAs that are guided by lEAs and the sustained provision of the required data on pressures, states
and impacts. Conventional approaches to sustainable devel- opment incorporate current socio-political systems that limit the use of lEAs.
Needed is the development of institutional frame- works that promote a shift from sector by sector
management of human uses to a more holistic approach that considers the diversity of pressures on
ecosystems, changes in ecosystem states and their impacts through integrated governance. Cross-cutting stove pipes must
involve a system of integrated ocean governance that oversees and enables efficient linkages among
three interdependent and sustained activities: (1) establish- ment of an integrated coastal ocean observing
system to monitor pressures, states and impacts simultaneously; (2) routine and repeated lEAs based on these observations: and (3) the use of
lEAs to help guide the sustainable implementation of EBAs (Fig. 31 The flow of data and information among these activities must enable an
iterative process of evaluating performance against objectives that leads to more effective observing systems and EBAs.
The primary
impediments to institutionalizing these activities interactively are stable funding, capacity building,
international collaboration, and timely data exchange among countries . Stable funding for sustained observations
is critical to the establishment of EBAs for sustainable development Sustained capacity building is critical because most coastal waters are
under the jurisdiction of developing countries and emerging economies. International col- laboration is essential to establish priorities based on
issues of mutual concern, to attract funding, to effect timely data exchange among coastal states for comparative ecosystem analyses, and to
develop systems that are interoperable globally (common stan- dards and protocols for comparative analyses of multidisciplinary data streams
from sentinel sites). Of these, timely exchange of ecological data and information on pressures, states and impacts Is likely to be most
challenging and will require international agreements that are codified in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Holistic, integrated
responses have the potential to effectively address issues related to ecosystem services and human well-being simultaneously. If there is any
chance of developing and maintain- ing effective EBAs for sustainable development (and the sustained and integrated observing systems
needed to inform them), the process of integrated ocean governance must be overseen by a diversity of stakeholders. These include integrated
coastal zone managers, marine spatial planners and managers of CEOBON, LME programs. Marine Protected Areas 11511, Regional Seas
Conventions |149|. and international maritime operations |154|. In addition to these practitioners, important stakeholders include data
providers (scientists and technicians involved in ocean observing and pre- diction systems), analysts (natural, social and political scientists and
economists), and journalists all working for the common good. This body of stakeholders might be called the "Integrated Govern- ance Forum
for Sustaining Marine Ecosystem Services" and would function as a "Community of Practice* |155|. However, sustained engagement of such a
diversity of stakeholders on a global scale to guide the establishment of EBAs on the spatial scales needed to sustain ecosystem services
(Section 2) is not feasible. Developing COOS to provide the data and information needed to inform EBAs (Section 3) depends on enhancing the
CCN locally and regionally based on priorities established by stakeholders and articulated in national and regional ocean policies |2S|. The E.U.
Marine Strategy Framework Directive [156| and the U.S. National Policy for the Stewardship of the Ocean. Our Coasts, and the Great Lakes
1157] are important examples of emerging regional scale approaches to integrated ocean governance. How effective these policies will be
remains to be seen.
Warming
Solvency
No Solvency-Satellites
Can’t solve without new satellites
Parthemore and Rogers 11 (Christine Parthemore, Senior Advisor at United States Department of Defense Adjunct Professor,
Security Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University, Will Rogers, a Research Assistant at the Center for a New American Security, “Blinded:
The Decline of U.S. Earth Monitoring Capabilities and Its Consequences for National Security,” Center for a New American Security, July 2011,
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Blinded_ParthemoreRogers_0.pdf)
Networks of satellites, ground-based sensors and unmanned aerial vehicles - the assets America uses to monitor
and understand environmental change and its consequences - are going dark. By 2016, only seven of NASA's current 13
earth monitoring satellites are expected to be operational, leaving a crucial information gap that will hinder national
security planning.1 Meanwhile, efforts to prevent this capability gap have been plagued by budget cuts, launch
failures, technical deficiencies, chronic delays and poor interagency coordination. Without the
information that these assets provide, core U.S. foreign policy and national security interests will be at
risk. The United States depends on satellite systems for managing the unconventional challenges of the
21st century in ways that are rarely acknowledged. This is particularly true for satellites that monitor climate change
and other environmental trends, which, in the words of the Department of Defenses (DOD's) 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, "will
shape the operating environment, roles, and missions" of DOD and "may act as an accelerant of
instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world."3 Examples abound of
how climate change is shaping the strategic environment and of why the U.S. government needs
continued access to earth monitoring data: • The opening of the Arctic is requiring the U.S. Navy and
Coast Guard to execute new missions in the High North, including more frequent search and rescue missions. • The
receding Himalayan glaciers and related reduced river flows to South Asia may shape the future
relationship between India and Pakistan. Defense planners and diplomats will need to monitor changes
in the glaciers that supply rivers in Pakistan in order to determine whether access to water will exacerbate existing military and
diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan - states that have longstanding grievances over how they share water. • In the South
China Sea, changing ocean conditions are altering Ash migration, leading neighboring countries to
compete over access to billions of dollars in fish resources; this situation could escalate into serious
conflict in contested territorial waters. • DOD and development agencies rely on earth monitoring systems to monitor
urbanization, migration patterns and internal population displacement. Several government agencies also rely on earth
monitoring capabilities to analyze compliance with deforestation and emissions measures in international climate
change treaties, just as the government relies on space-based capabilities to monitor and verify compliance with non-proliferation treaties.
Political Will
Trying to solve for warming does nothing. It’s politically controversial and links to
politics
Speath 12 (Ryu Speath, deputy editor at TheWeek.com, “Why it's probably too late to roll back global warming,” The Week, December 5,
2012, http://theweek.com/article/index/237392/why-its-probably-too-late-to-roll-back-global-warming)
Two degrees Celsius. According to scientists, that's the rise in global temperature, measured against pre-industrial times,
that could spark some of the most catastrophic effects of global warming. Preventing the two-degree bump has been the goal of every
international treaty designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including a new one currently being hammered out at a United Nations
summit in Doha, Qatar. But a
new study published by the journal Nature Climate Change shows that it's incredibly unlikely
that global warming can be limited to two degrees. According to the study, the world in 2011 "pumped
nearly 38.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and
oil," says Seth Borenstein at The Associated Press: The total amounts to more than 2.4 million pounds (1.1 million
kilograms) of carbon dioxide released into the air every second. Because emissions of the key greenhouse
gas have been rising steadily and most carbon stays in the air for a century, it is not just unlikely but
"rather optimistic" to think that the world can limit future temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6
degrees Fahrenheit), said the study's lead author, Glen Peters at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo,
Norway. What
happens when the two-degree threshold is crossed? Most notably, that's when the polar
ice caps will begin to melt, leading to a dangerous rise in sea levels. Furthermore, the world's hottest regions will be
unable to grow food, setting the stage for mass hunger and global food inflation. The rise in
temperature would also likely exacerbate or cause extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and
droughts. There is a very small chance that the world could pull back from the brink. The U.N. could still limit
warming to two degrees if it adopts a "radical plan," says Peters' group. According to a PricewaterhouseCoopers study, such a plan would entail
cutting carbon emissions "by 5.1 percent every year from now to 2050, essentially slamming the breaks on growth starting right now," says
Coral Davenport at The National Journal, "and keeping the freeze on for 37 years." However, the U.N. has set a deadline of ratifying a new
treaty by 2015, and implementing it by 2020, which means the world is already eight years behind that pace. There are still major
disagreements between the U.S. and China over whether the developed world, which industrialized first, should bear the bulk of the cost of
reducing carbon emissions. And
there is, of course, a large contingent of Americans who don't even believe
climate change exists, putting any treaty's ratification at risk. Climate change is so politically toxic in America that
Congress has prioritized the fiscal cliff over — no exaggeration — untold suffering and the end of the
world as we know it. In other words, it isn't happening. And if that's not bad enough, keep in mind that
the two-degree mark is just the beginning, says Davenport: Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international
affairs at Princeton University and a member of the Nobel Prize-winning U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says that a 2degree rise is not itself that point, but rather the beginning of irreversible changes. "It starts to speed
you toward a tipping point," he said. "It's driving toward a cliff at night with the headlights off. We don't
know when we'll hit that cliff, but after 2 degrees, we're going faster, we have less control. After 3, 4, 5
degrees, you spiral out of control, you have even more irreversible change." Indeed, at the current
emissions rate, the world is expected to broach the four-degree mark by 2100 — at which point, we can
expect even worse environmental catastrophes. Some analysts say that the best possible scenario is
preventing the Earth from warming up by three or four degrees. That means instead of focusing solely on preventing global warming,
governments around the world should begin preparing for the major environmental upheavals, starting
with protections for coastal cities.
No Warming
No warming
Global warming theory is false – 5 warrants
Hawkins 14 (John Hawkins, runs Right Wing News and Linkiest. He's also the co-owner of the The Looking Spoon. Additionally, he does
weekly appearances on the #1 in it's market Jaz McKay show, writes two weekly columns for Townhall and a column for PJ Media. Additionally,
his work has also been published at the Washington Examiner, The Hill, TPNN, Hot Air, The Huffington Post and at Human Events, “5 Scientific
Reasons That Global Warming Isn't Happening,” Town Hall, February 18, 2014, http://townhall.com/columnists/johnhawkins/2014/02/18/5scientific-reasons-that-global-warming-isnt-happening-n1796423/page/full)
How did global warming discussions end up hinging on what's happening with polar bears, unverifiable predictions of what will happen in a
hundred years, and whether people are "climate deniers" or "global warming cultists?" If this is a scientific topic, why aren't we spending more
time discussing the science involved? Why aren't we talking about the evidence and the actual data involved? Why aren't we looking at the
predictions that were made and seeing if they match up to the results? If this is such an open and shut case, why
are so many people
who care about science skeptical? Many Americans have long since thought that the best scientific
evidence available suggested that man wasn't causing any sort of global warming. However, now, we
can go even further and suggest that the planet isn't warming at all. 1) There hasn't been any global
warming since 1997: If nothing changes in the next year, we're going to have kids who graduate from
high school who will have never seen any "global warming" during their lifetimes. That's right; the
temperature of the planet has essentially been flat for 17 years. This isn't a controversial assertion
either. Even the former Director of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, Phil
Jones, admits that it's true. Since the planet was cooling from 1940-1975 and the upswing in temperature afterward only lasted 22
years, a 17 year pause is a big deal. It also begs an obvious question: How can we be experiencing global
warming if there's no actual "global warming?" 2) There is no scientific consensus that global warming is
occurring and caused by man: Questions are not decided by "consensus." In fact, many scientific
theories that were once widely believed to be true were made irrelevant by new evidence. Just to name
one of many, many examples, in the early seventies, scientists believed global cooling was occurring.
However, once the planet started to warm up, they changed their minds. Yet, the primary "scientific"
argument for global warming is that there is a "scientific consensus" that it's occurring. Setting aside the fact
that's not a scientific argument, even if that ever was true (and it really wasn't), it's certainly not true anymore. Over 31,000 scientists
have signed on to a petition saying humans aren't causing global warming. More than 1000 scientists signed on
to another report saying there is no global warming at all. There are tens of thousands of well-educated, mainstream scientists who do not
agree that global warming is occurring at all and people who share their opinion are taking a position grounded in science. 3)
Arctic ice is
up 50% since 2012: The loss of Arctic ice has been a big talking point for people who believe global warming is occurring. Some people
have even predicted that all of the Arctic ice would melt by now because of global warming. Yet, Arctic ice is up 50% since 2012. How much
Arctic ice really matters is an open question since the very limited evidence we have suggests that a few
decades ago, there was less ice than there is today, but the same people who thought the drop in ice was noteworthy
should at least agree that the increase is important as well. 4) Climate models showing global warming have been wrong
over and over: These future projections of what global warming will do to the planet have been based
on climate models. Essentially, scientists make assumptions about how much of an impact different factors will have; they guess how
much of a change there will be and then they project changes over time. Unfortunately, almost all of these models showing huge temperature
gains have turned out to be wrong. Former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer says that climate models used by government agencies to create
policies “have failed miserably.” Spencer analyzed 90 climate models against surface temperature and satellite temperature data, and found
that more than 95 percent of the models “have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their
own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).” There's an old saying in
programming that goes, "Garbage in, garbage out." In
other words, if the assumptions and data you put into the
models are faulty, then the results will be worthless. If the climate models that show a dire impact
because of global warming aren't reliable -- and they're not -- then the long term projections they make are
meaningless. 5) Predictions about the impact of global warming have already been proven wrong: The
debate over global warming has been going on long enough that we've had time to see whether some of
the predictions people made about it have panned out in the real world. For example, Al Gore predicted all the
Arctic ice would be gone by 2013. In 2005, the Independent ran an article saying that the Artic had entered a death spiral. Scientists fear that
the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the
climate stable for thousands of years....The
greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a “tipping point” beyond which
will raise sea levels
dramatically. Of course, the highway is still there. Meanwhile, Arctic ice is up 50% since 2012. James Hansen
of NASA fame predicted that the West Side Highway in New York would be under water by now because of global warming. If the climate
models and the predictions about global warming aren't even close to being correct, wouldn't it be more
scientific to reject hasty action based on faulty data so that we can further study the issue and find out
what's really going on?
nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which
No warming – History and scientific study prove. Scientists exaggerate studies to get
research grants.
Jaworowski 08 (Prof. Zbigniew Jaworowski, Chairman of Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in
Warsaw, Chair of UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, “Fear Propaganda”
http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/chap3.htm)
Doomsayers preaching the
horrors of warming are not troubled by the fact that in the Middle Ages, when for
a few hundred years it was warmer than it is now, neither the Maldive atolls nor the Pacific archipelagos
were flooded. Global oceanic levels have been rising for some hundreds or thousands of years (the causes of this
phenomenon are not clear). In the last 100 years, this increase amounted to 10 cm to 20 cm, (24) but it does not seem to be
accelerated by the 20th Century warming. It turns out that in warmer climates, there is more water that
evaporates from the ocean (and subsequently falls as snow on the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps) than there is water
that flows to the seas from melting glaciers. (17) Since the 1970s, the glaciers of the Arctic, Greenland, and the
Antarctic have ceased to retreat, and have started to grow. On January 18, 2002, the journal Science published the results
of satellite-borne radar and ice core studies performed by scientists from CalTech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at
Santa Cruz. These results indicate that the Antarctic
ice flow has been slowed, and sometimes even stopped, and that this
has resulted in the thickening of the continental glacier at a rate of 26.8 billion tons a year . (25) In 1999, a
Polish Academy of Sciences paper was prepared as a source material for a report titled "Forecast of the Defense Conditions for the Republic of
Poland in 2001-2020." The paper implied that the increase of atmospheric precipitation by 23 percent in Poland, which was presumed to be
caused by global warming, would be detrimental. (Imagine stating this in a country where 38 percent of the area suffers from permanent
surface water deficit!) The same paper also deemed an extension of the vegetation period by 60 to 120 days as a disaster. Truly, a possibility of
doubling the crop rotation, or even prolonging by four months the harvest of radishes, makes for a horrific vision in the minds of the authors of
this paper. Newspapers continuously write
about the increasing frequency and power of the storms. The
facts, however, speak otherwise. I cite here only some few data from Poland, but there are plenty of data from all over
the world. In Cracow, in 1896-1995, the number of storms with hail and precipitation exceeding 20
millimeters has decreased continuously, and after 1930, the number of all storms decreased. (26) In 1813 to
1994, the frequency and magnitude of floods of Vistula River in Cracow not only did not increase but, since 1940, have
significantly decreased. (27) Also, measurements in the Kolobrzeg Baltic Sea harbor indicate that the number of gales has not
increased between 1901 and 1990. (28) Similar observations apply to the 20th Century hurricanes over the Atlantic
Ocean (Figure 4,) and worldwide.
Emissions are currently being released into space. Proves warming is actually
reversing
Taylor 11 (James Taylor, managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly publication devoted to sound science and
free-market environmentalism. He is also senior fellow for The Heartland Institute, focusing on energy and environment issues, “New NASA
Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism,” Forbes, July 27, 2011, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasadata-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-holdin-global-warming-alarmism/)
NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to
be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote
Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer
models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide
trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the
University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua
satellite, reports
that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into
alarmist computer models. “The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space
during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release.
“There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the
oceans .” In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have
predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before
United Nations computer models predicted.
No Consensus
97 percent consensus claims are false
Taylor 13, (James, Writer for forbes. 5/30/13, “Global Warming Alarmists Caught Doctoring '97-Percent Consensus' Claims,”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/30/global-warming-alarmists-caught-doctoring-97-percent-consensus-claims/ //jweideman)
Global warming alarmists and their allies in the liberal media have been caught doctoring the results of a
widely cited paper asserting there is a 97-percent scientific consensus regarding human-caused global
warming. After taking a closer look at the paper, investigative journalists report the authors’ claims of a 97-pecent
consensus relied on the authors misclassifying the papers of some of the world’s most prominent global
warming skeptics. At the same time, the authors deliberately presented a meaningless survey question so
they could twist the responses to fit their own preconceived global warming alarmism. Global warming alarmist
John Cook, founder of the misleadingly named blog site Skeptical Science, published a paper with several other global warming alarmists
claiming they reviewed nearly 12,000 abstracts of studies published in the peer-reviewed climate literature. Cook reported that he and his
colleagues found that 97 percent of the papers that expressed a position on human-caused global warming “endorsed the consensus position
that humans are causing global warming.”
As is the case with other ‘surveys’ alleging an overwhelming scientific
consensus on global warming, the question surveyed had absolutely nothing to do with the issues of
contention between global warming alarmists and global warming skeptics. The question Cook and his
alarmist colleagues surveyed was simply whether humans have caused some global warming. The
question is meaningless regarding the global warming debate because most skeptics as well as most
alarmists believe humans have caused some global warming. The issue of contention dividing alarmists
and skeptics is whether humans are causing global warming of such negative severity as to constitute a
crisis demanding concerted action.
Warming slow
Worst case scenario warming will only be 1.5 degrees
Freitas ‘2 (C. R., Associate Prof. in Geography and Enivonmental Science @ U. Aukland, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, “Are
observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous?” 50:2, GeoScienceWorld)
In any analysis of CO2 it is important to differentiate between three quantities: 1) CO2 emissions, 2) atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and 3)
greenhouse gas radiative forcing due to atmospheric CO2. As for the first, between 1980 and 2000 global CO2 emissions increased from 5.5 Gt
C to about 6.5 Gt C, which amounts to an average annual increase of just over 1%. As regards the second, between 1980 and 2000 atmospheric
CO2 concentrations increased by about 0.4 per cent per year. Concerning the third, between 1980 and 2000 greenhouse gas forcing increase
due to CO2 has been about 0.25 W m–2 per decade (Hansen, 2000). Because
of the logarithmic relationship between CO2
concentration and greenhouse gas forcing, even an exponential increase of atmospheric CO2
concentration translates into linear forcing and temperature increase; or, as CO2 gets higher, a constant annual increase
of say 1.5 ppm has less and less effect on radiative forcing, as shown in Figure 3 . Leaving aside for the moment the satellite temperature data
and using the surface data set, between 1980 and 2000 there has been this linear increase of both CO2 greenhouse gas forcing and
temperature. If
one extrapolates the rate of observed atmospheric CO2 increase into the future, the observed
would only lead to a concentration of about 560 ppm in 2100, about double the
concentration of the late 1800’s. That assumes a continuing increase in the CO2 emission rate of about 1% per
year, and a carbon cycle leading to atmospheric concentrations observed in the past. If one assumes, in addition, that the increase of surface
atmospheric CO2 increase
temperatures in the last 20 years (about 0.3 °C) is entirely due to the increase in greenhouse gas forcing of all greenhouse gas, not just CO2,
that would translate into a temperature increase of about 1.5 °C (or approximately 0.15 °C per decade). Using the
satellite data, the temperature increase is correspondingly lower. Based on this, the temperature increase over the next 100 years might be less
than 1.5 °C, as proposed in Figure 19.
Too late
Warming is too fast for adaption
Willis et al 10 (K.J. Willis1,3,4 , R.M. Bailey2 , S.A. Bhagwat1,2 and H.J.B. Birks1,2,3 1 Institute of Biodiversity at the James Martin 21st Century School,
University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK 2School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK 3Department of
Biology, University of Bergen, Post Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway 4Department of Zoology, University of Oxford. 2010, “Biodiversity baselines, thresholds and
resilience: testing predictions and assumptions using palaeoecological data”
http://users.ugent.be/~everleye/Ecosystem%20Dynamics/papers%20assignment/Willis%20et%20al%20TREE%202010.pdf//jweideman)
Another critical question relating to future climate change is whether rates of predicted change will be
too rapid for ecological processes to react and so prevent species and communities persisting. There is
also the question of whether species will be able to migrate quickly enough to new locations with a
suitable climate. Studies based on data from extant populations and modelling suggest that rapid rates
of change could pose a serious threat for many species and communities unable to track climate space
quickly enough, resulting in extensive extinctions [9,31]. But it is also known from fossil records that there have been
numerous previous intervals of abrupt climate change [32,33]. What were the responses of past biodiversity to these previous intervals of rapid
climate change? The existence of highly detailed evidence from ice-core records (Box 2) spanning the last full glacial cycle provides an ideal
opportunity to examine biodiversity responses to rapid climate change. For example, ice-cores indicate that temperatures in mid to high
latitudes oscil- lated repeatedly by more than 4°C on timescales of decades or less 134) (Box 2). Numerous records of biodiversity
response from North America and Europe across this time-interval reflect ecological changes with a decadal resolution [35-37).
While they demonstrate clear evidence for rapid turnover of communities (e.g. Figure 2), novel assemblages, migrations
and local extinctions, there is no evidence for the broad-scale extinctions predicted by mod- els; rather there is strong evidence for
persistence |25). However, there is also evidence that some species expand- ed their range slowly or largely failed to expand from their refugia
in response to this interval of rapid climate warm- ing 138). The challenge now is to determine which specific respect, in particular information
on alternative stable states, rates of change, possible triggering mechanisms and systems that demonstrate resilience to thresholds. In a study
from central Spain, for example, it has been demonstrated that over the past 9000 years, several threshold changes occurred, shifting from one
stable forest type to another (pine to deciduous oak and then evergreen oak to pine) (52). The trigger appears to have been a combination of at
least two abiotic variables; in the first shift, an interval of higher precipitation combined with less evaporation and in the second, increased
aridity combined with increased fire frequency. A similar 'double-trigger' was also found to be important in regime shifts along the south-east
coastline of Madagascar |53| where a threshold shift from closed littoral forest to open Erica- dominated heathland occurred in response to
the combined effects of aridity and sea-level rise. Neither of the variables occurring alone resulted in a shift but the combination of the two did.
Nothing can be done to stop global warming
Skeptical Science 13 (Skeptical Science, “Global warming: Not reversible, but stoppable,” Raw Story, April 27, 2013,
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/04/27/global-warming-not-reversable-but-stoppable/)
Global warming is not reversible but it is stoppable. Many people incorrectly assume that once we stop
making greenhouse gas emissions, the CO2 will be drawn out of the air, the old equilibrium will be re-established and
the climate of the planet will go back to the way it used to be; just like the way the acid rain problem was solved once scrubbers were put on
smoke stacks, or the way lead pollution disappeared once we changed to unleaded gasoline. This
misinterpretation can lead to
complacency about the need to act now. In fact, global warming is, on human timescales, here forever. The
truth is that the damage we have done—and continue to do—to the climate system cannot be undone. The
second question reveals a different kind of misunderstanding: many mistakenly believe that the climate
system is going to send more warming our way no matter what we choose to do. Taken to an extreme, that
viewpoint can lead to a fatalistic approach, in which efforts to mitigate climate change by cutting emissions are seen as futile: we should
instead begin planning for adaptation or, worse, start deliberately intervening through geoengineering. But this is wrong. The inertia is not in
the physics of the climate system, but rather in the human economy. This is explained in a recent paper in Science Magazine (2013, paywalled
but freely accessible here, scroll down to "Publications, 2013") by Damon Matthews and Susan Solomon: Irreversible Does Not Mean
Unavoidable. Since
the Industrial Revolution, CO2 from our burning of fossil fuels has been building up in
the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 is now approaching 400 parts per million (ppm), up from 280 ppm prior
to 1800. If we were to stop all emissions immediately, the CO2 concentration would also start to decline
immediately, with some of the gas continuing to be absorbed into the oceans and smaller amounts being taken up by carbon sinks on land.
According to the models of the carbon cycle, the level of CO2 (the red line in Figure 1A) would have dropped to about 340 ppm by 2300,
approximately the same level as it was in 1980. In the next 300 years, therefore, nature will have recouped the last 30 years of our emissions.
So, does this mean that some of the climate change we have experienced so far would go into reverse,
allowing, for example, the Arctic sea ice to freeze over again? Unfortunately, no. Today, because of the
greenhouse gas build-up, there is more solar energy being trapped, which is warming the oceans,
atmosphere, land and ice, a process that has been referred to as the Earth's energy imbalance. The energy flow will continue to be
out of balance until the Earth warms up enough so that the amount of energy leaving the Earth matches
the amount coming in. It takes time for the Earth to heat up, particularly the oceans, where approximately 90% of the thermal energy
ends up. It just so happens that the delayed heating from this thermal inertia balances almost exactly with the drop in CO2 concentrations,
meaning the temperature of the Earth would stay approximately constant from the minute we stopped adding more CO2, as shown in Figure
1C. There is bad news and good news in this. The
bad news is that, once we have caused some warming, we can’t go
back, at least not without huge and probably unaffordable efforts to put the CO2 back into the ground, or
by making risky interventions by scattering tons of sulphate particles into the upper atmosphere, to shade us from the Sun. The good news is
that, once we stop emissions, further warming will immediately cease; we are not on an unstoppable path to oblivion. The
future is not
out of our hands. Global warming is stoppable, even if it is not reversible.
Too late to solve warming
Adam 08 (David Adam, environment correspondent for the Guardian between 2005 and 2010, before which he was science
correspondent for two years. He previously worked at the science journal Nature after a PhD in chemical engineering, “Too late? Why scientists
say we should expect the worst,” The Guardian, December 8, 2008, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/dec/09/poznancopenhagen-global-warming-targets-climate-change)
Despite the political rhetoric, the scientific warnings, the media headlines and the corporate promises, he would say, carbon
emissions were soaring way out of control - far above even the bleak scenarios considered by last
year's report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Stern review. The battle against
dangerous climate change had been lost, and the world needed to prepare for things to get very, very
bad. "As an academic I wanted to be told that it was a very good piece of work and that the conclusions were sound," Anderson said. "But as
a human being I desperately wanted someone to point out a mistake, and to tell me we had got it
completely wrong." Nobody did. The cream of the UK climate science community sat in stunned silence as Anderson pointed out
that carbon emissions since 2000 have risen much faster than anyone thought possible, driven mainly by the coalfuelled economic boom in the developing world. So much extra pollution is being pumped out, he said,
that most of the climate targets debated by politicians and campaigners are fanciful at best, and
"dangerously misguided" at worst. In the jargon used to count the steady accumulation of carbon
dioxide in the Earth's thin layer of atmosphere, he said it was "improbable" that levels could now be
restricted to 650 parts per million (ppm). The CO2 level is currently over 380ppm, up from 280ppm at the time of the industrial
revolution, and it rises by more than 2ppm each year. The government's official position is that the world should aim to cap this rise at 450ppm.
Even a cut in emissions will accelerate global warming
Dye 12 (Lee Dye, science expert for ABC News, “It May Be Too Late to Stop Global Warming,” ABC News, October 26, 2012,
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/late-stop-global-warming/story?id=17557814)
Here's a dark secret about the earth's changing climate that many scientists believe, but few seem eager to discuss: It's too
late to stop global warming . Greenhouse gasses pumped into the planet's atmosphere will continue to
grow even if the industrialized nations cut their emissions down to the bone. Furthermore, the severe
measures that would have to be taken to make those reductions stand about the same chance as that
proverbial snowball in hell. Two scientists who believe we are on the wrong track argue in the current issue of the journal Nature
Climate Change that global warming is inevitable and it's time to switch our focus from trying to stop it to
figuring out how we are going to deal with its consequences. "At present, governments' attempts to limit greenhousegas emissions through carbon cap-and-trade schemes and to promote renewable and sustainable energy sources are probably too
late to arrest the inevitable trend of global warming," Jasper Knight of Wits University in Johannesburg, South Africa, and
Stephan Harrison of the University of Exeter in England argue in their study. Those efforts, they continue, "have little relationship to the real
world." What is clear, they contend, is a profound lack of understanding about how we are going to deal with the loss of huge land areas,
including some entire island nations, and massive migrations as humans flee areas no longer suitable for sustaining life, the inundation of
coastal properties around the world, and so on ... and on ... and on. That doesn't mean nations should stop trying to reduce their carbon
emissions, because any reduction could lessen the consequences. But
the cold fact is no matter what Europe and the
United States and other "developed" nations do, it's not going to curb global climate change, according to
one scientist who was once highly skeptical of the entire issue of global warming. "Call me a converted skeptic," physicist Richard A. Muller says
in an op-ed piece published in the New York Times last July. Muller's latest book, "Energy for Future Presidents," attempts to poke holes in
nearly everything we've been told about energy and climate change, except the fact that "humans
are almost entirely the cause"
of global warming. Those of us who live in the "developed" world initiated it. Those who live in the
"developing" world will sustain it as they strive for a standard of living equal to ours. "As far as global
warming is concerned, the developed world is becoming irrelevant," Muller insists in his book. We could set an
example by curbing our emissions, and thus claim in the future that "it wasn't our fault," but about the only thing that could stop it would be a
complete economic collapse in China and the rest of the world's developing countries.
We are already passed the tipping point
Thomas 14 (Andrew Thomas, writer for the American Thinker, “The Global Warming Tipping Point is Near,” American Thinker, January 2,
2014, http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/01/the_global_warming_tipping_point_is_near.html)
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory has been dominant for the past three decades as absolute fact in
the public mind. In the last several years, however, cracks in the fortress of "settled science" have appeared, and public opinion has begun to
shift. Increasingly, alarmist predictions have failed to come to fruition. In
2004, NASA's chief scientist James Hansen authoritatively
announced that there is only a ten-year window to act on AGW (presumably by transferring mass quantities of taxpayer
funds to global warmist causes) before climate Armageddon destroys humanity. Well, that window has now shut
tight, and AGW is AWOL. Al Gore, the high priest of AGW theory, has closed all of his Alliance for Climate Protection field offices, and laid off
90% of his staff. Contributions have all but dried up since 2008. Australia's conservative government has
severely curtailed the country's climate change initiatives and is in the process of repealing its business-killing carbon tax.
A group of German scientists predicts dramatic global cooling over the next 90 years toward a new "little ice age." Of course, even many "low
information" folks have an awareness of the record increase in Arctic sea ice, as well as the current highly-publicized predicament of the cadre
of wealthy global warmists stuck in record-high sea ice while on a cruise to the Antarctic to prove the absence of sea ice. Now the UN's
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has quietly downgraded their prediction for global warming for the next 30 years in the final
draft of their landmark "Fifth Assessment Report." The effect of this is that they are tacitly admitting that the computer models they have
religiously relied-upon for decades as "proof" of AGW theory are dead wrong. The tipping
point is near. I can smell it.
Warming will never be reversible – vote NEG on presumption that the AFF creates
worse that the status quo
Romm 13 (Joe Romm, founding editor for Climate Change, “”The Dangerous Myth That Climate Change Is Reversible,” Climate Progress,
March 17, 2013, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/17/1731591/the-dangerous-myth-that-climate-change-is-reversible/)
Memo to Nocera: As a
NOAA-led paper explained 4 years ago, climate change is “largely irreversible for 1000 years.” This
notion that we can reverse climate change by cutting emissions is one of the most commonly held
myths — and one of the most dangerous, as explained in this 2007 MIT study, “Understanding Public Complacency
About Climate Change: Adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter.” The fact is that, as RealClimate has
explained, we would need “an immediate cut of around 60 to 70% globally and continued further cuts over
time” merely to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 – and that would still leave us with a
radiative imbalance that would lead to “an additional 0.3 to 0.8ºC warming over the 21st Century.” And
that assumes no major carbon cycle feedbacks kick in, which seems highly unlikely. We’d have to drop
total global emissions to zero now and for the rest of the century just to lower concentrations enough to
stop temperatures from rising. Again, even in this implausible scenario, we still aren’t talking about reversing
climate change, just stopping it — or, more technically, stopping the temperature rise. The great ice
sheets might well continue to disintegrate, albeit slowly.
Warming Natural
Scientific study and consensus validates warming is a natural phenomenon
McClintock 09 (Ian C. McClintock, has held many positions in the NFF and in the NSW Farmers Association where he currently serves
on the Climate Change Task Force, the Business Economic & Trade Committee, and on the Executive Council. He has served on the NFF s
Economic Committee, Conservation Committee, and as the NFF's representative on the National Farm Forestry Round Table, “Proof that CO2 is
not the Cause of the Current Global Warming,” Lavoisier, June 2009, http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climatechange/mcclintock-proofnotco2-2009.pdf)
A careful study of these Reports reveals that there is in fact no empirical evidence that supports the main
theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) (this has now been changed to the all inclusive terminology ‘climate change’2 ).
Some 23 specialized computer models provide the only support for the IPCC theory. There is considerable uncertainty, as a result
of a fundamental lack of knowledge about the causes of ‘climate change’, admitted by the IPCC. “There is still an incomplete
physical understanding of many components of the climate system and their role in climate change. Key
uncertainties include aspects of the roles played by clouds, the cryosphere, the oceans, land use and
couplings between climate and biogeochemical cycles.” Significantly, our Sun provides 99.9% of the
energy that drives the worlds climate systems and its varying Solar Wind protects us from galactic cosmic rays that have been
shown to influence global cloud cover (and therefore temperature), and so this should be added to the list in the above quotation as this
material is now largely ignored by the IPCC. It has been common in recent times to claim that there is a scientific consensus about the causes of
climate change, however it has become evident that this is clearly not the case. Amongst
many other examples there are now
well over 31,000 scientists who have signed a petition disagreeing, on scientific grounds, with the IPCC’s
claims. Science is never settled. The object of this paper is to cite a number of examples that conclusively demonstrate and prove
that the claims that CO2 is the principle driver of climate change are false. Once this fact is accepted, it makes the whole objective of
attempting to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere a total waste of time, effort, financial and other resources,
all of which can be better directed towards tackling real problems. PROOF’S 1. LACK OF CORRELATION There is no
correlation between levels of CO2 3 in the atmosphere and global temperature, in short, medium or
long term historic time scales. There is a scientific truism that says, “Correlation can not prove causation,
but a failure to correlate can prove non-causation”. If anthropogenic CO2 were the major climate driver
(as claimed), warming would have continued to increase in synchronization with the increase in CO2 levels.
(i) Short Term. The graph below indicates the present cooling period we are now experiencing. This shows the Hadley UK ground based
(pink) and the satellite (blue) temperature record and the simultaneously increasing CO2 levels (green line). lack of correlation with
CO2 increases and the inability to predict climate even in the very short term, let alone for 100 or more years into
the future. With the Sun now entering a ‘quiet’ phase, it is anticipated that this cooling trend is likely to
continue until Sun activity increases. (ii) Medium Term. This graph shows the temperature recovery (warming) that has
occurred since the last gasp of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the mid 1800’s. It shows three warmings and two coolings, in fact there are now three
coolings with details of the latest one (shown on p4) not included on this graph. Again
there is no correlation with CO2 levels
in the atmosphere. It is worth noting that the rate of increase in the latest warming period (1975 – 1998) is
similar to the rate of increase in the previous two warmings (sloping parallel bars), despite significantly higher levels of CO2 being present
during the last warming. There appears to be a clear cyclical signature evident in these temperature perturbations that is absent in the CO2
data. It
is very obvious that other influences are dominating (iii) Long Term. For the first 4 billion years of
Earth history, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has been from 3 to 100 times the current level (Plimer. I.
2009), without any 'tipping point* leading to a runaway greenhouse effect, as predicted by the alarmists. The historical record
indicates that CO2 levels have been significantly higher than they are now, being 25 times at 545 Ma, (million years
ago) (Veizer. J. et al 2000). The killer proof that CO2 does not drive climate is to be found during the Ordovician- Silurian (450-420 Ma) and the
Jurassic-Cretaceous periods (151-132 Ma), when CO> levels were greater than 4000 ppmv (parts per million by volume) and about 2000 ppmv
respectively4. If
the IPCC theory is correct there should have been runaway greenhouse induced global
warming during these periods, but instead there was glaciation. This unequivocally proves that CO2
does not drive climate, it can only be a minor player, swamped by other far more powerful influences. This proves three
things. Firstly, CO2 did not, and could not, have caused the warmings. Secondly, rising global
temperatures were responsible for increasing levels of both CO2 and CH4 (Methane) and also Nitrous Oxide
(N2O), not shown. The physics of how this might occur are well established and beyond dispute. Thirdly,
increased levels of CO2
did not inhibit in any way the subsequent fall in temperatures that regularly occurred, plunging the
world into another ice age.
It occurs naturally
Ferrara 12 (Peter Ferrara, senior fellow for entitlement and budget policy at The Heartland Institute, a senior fellow at the Social Security
Institute, and the general counsel of the American Civil Rights Union, “Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling,” The Heartland
Institute, June 1, 2012, http://blog.heartland.org/2012/06/sorry-global-warming-alarmists-the-earth-is-cooling/)
Check out the 20th century temperature record, and you will find that its up and down pattern does not
follow the industrial revolution’s upward march of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the supposed
central culprit for man caused global warming (and has been much, much higher in the past). It follows instead the up
and down pattern of naturally caused climate cycles . For example, temperatures dropped steadily
from the late 1940s to the late 1970s. The popular press was even talking about a coming ice age. Ice ages
have cyclically occurred roughly every 10,000 years, with a new one actually due around now. In the late 1970s, the natural cycles
turned warm and temperatures rose until the late 1990s, a trend that political and economic interests
have tried to milk mercilessly to their advantage. The incorruptible satellite measured global
atmospheric temperatures show less warming during this period than the heavily manipulated land
surface temperatures. Central to these natural cycles is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Every 25 to 30
years the oceans undergo a natural cycle where the colder water below churns to replace the warmer
water at the surface, and that affects global temperatures by the fractions of a degree we have seen.
The PDO was cold from the late 1940s to the late 1970s, and it was warm from the late 1970s to the late
1990s, similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In 2000, the UN’s IPCC predicted that global temperatures would rise by 1
degree Celsius by 2010. Was that based on climate science, or political science to scare the public into accepting costly anti-industrial
regulations and taxes? Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University, knew the answer. He publicly
predicted in 2000 that global temperatures would decline by 2010. He made that prediction because he knew the PDO had turned cold in 1999,
something the political scientists at the UN’s IPCC did not know or did not think significant.
Reducing emissions has no effects – empirics prove
Bethel 05 (Tom Bethel, senior editor of The American Spectator, “THE FALSE ALERT OF GLOBAL WARMING,” The American Spectator,
May 2005, http://spectator.org/articles/55208/false-alert-global-warming)
But whether man-made
carbon-dioxide emissions have caused measurable temperature increases over
the last 30 years is debated. Carbon dioxide is itself a benign and essential substance, incidentally. Without it, plants would
not grow, and without plant-life animals could not live. Any increase of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere causes plants, trees, and forests to grow more abundantly. It should be a treehugger's
delight. The surface data suggest that man-made carbon dioxide has not in fact increased global
temperatures. From 1940 to 1975, coal-fired plants emitted fumes with great abandon and without
restraint by Greens. Yet the Earth cooled slightly in that time. And if man-made global warming is real,
atmospheric as well as surface temperatures should have increased steadily. But they haven't. There
was merely that one-time increase, possibly caused by a solar anomaly. In addition, an "urban heat island effect" has
been identified. Build a tarmac runway near a weather station, and the nearby temperature readings will go up. Global warming
became the focus of activism at the time of the Earth Summit in Rio, in 1992. Bush the elder signed a
climate-change treaty, with signatories agreeing to reduce carbon dioxide emissions below 1990 levels. The details were worked out in
Kyoto, Japan. But America was the principal target, everyone knew it, and Clinton didn't submit the treaty to the Senate for
ratification. The 1990 date had been carefully chosen. Emissions in Germany and the Soviet Union were still high;
Germany had just absorbed East Germany, then still using inefficient coal-fired plants. After they were
modernized, Germany's emissions dropped, so the demand that they be reduced below 1990 levels had already been met and
became an exercise in painless moralizing. The same was true for the Soviet Union. After its collapse, in 1991,
economic activity fell by about one-third. As for France, most of its electricity comes from nuclear
power, which has no global-warming effects but has been demonized for other reasons. If the enviros
were serious about reducing carbon dioxide they would be urging us to build nuclear power plants, but
that is not on their agenda. They want windmills (whether or not they kill golden eagles). Under the Kyoto Protocol, U.S.
emissions would have to be cut so much that economic depression would have been the only certain
outcome. We were expected to reduce energy use by about 35 percent within ten years, which might have meant eliminating one-third of
all cars. You can see why the enviros fell in love with the idea.
Impact Defense
Adaption
IPCC consensus proves we can adapt
Rodgers 14 (Paul Rodgers, contributor of general sciences for Forbes, “Climate Change: We Can Adapt, Says IPCC,” Forbes, March 31,
2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrodgers/2014/03/31/climate-change-is-real-but-its-not-the-end-of-the-world-says-ipcc/)
Yet for
the first time, the IPCC is offering a glimmer of hope. It acknowledges that some of the changes
will be beneficial – including higher crop yields in places like Canada, Europe and Central Asia – and that in others cases,
people will be able to adapt to them. “The really big breakthrough in this report is the new idea of
thinking about managing climate change,” said Dr Chris Field, the global ecology director at the Carnegie Institution in
Washington and a co-chairman of the report. “We have a lot of the tools for dealing effectively with it. We just need
to be smart about it. “Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried,” said
Field. “Governments, firms, and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation.
This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more ambitious adaptations that will be important as
climate and society continue to change.” Adaptations could include better flood defences or building
houses that can withstand tropical cyclones. Vicente Barros, another co-chairman, said: “Investments in better
preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future.”
Cutting emissions will not help. Our only hope is to adapt to rising temperatures
Roach 13 (John Roach, contributing writer for NBC News, “It's time to adapt to unstoppable global warming, scientists say,” NBC News,
November 7, 2013, http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/its-time-adapt-unstoppable-global-warming-scientists-say-f8C11554338)
Even if the world's 7 billion people magically stop burning fossil fuels and chopping down forests today, the
greenhouse gases already emitted to the atmosphere will warm the planet by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit
by the end of this century, according to scientists who are urging a focused scientific effort to help humanity adapt to the changing climate.
And reality shows no sign of such a magic reduction in emissions. The amount of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere reached another new high in 2012, the World Meteorological Association announced Wednesday. In fact,
concentrations of carbon dioxide, the most abundant planet warming gas, grew faster last year than its
average growth rate of the past decade. "The fact is, we are not making a lot of progress in reducing
emissions," Richard Moss, a senior scientist with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research Institute at the
University of Maryland, told NBC News. "So it seems like we really do need to face up to the fact that there is
change that we can no longer avoid and we have to figure out how to manage." Moss is the lead author of an
article in Thursday's issue of Science calling for the development of a field of climate science that provides relevant, tangible information to
decision makers who are tasked to protect people and cities increasingly battered by extreme weather, flooded by rising seas, and nourished
with food grown on drought-prone lands. Science
which focuses on adapting to climate change — rather than just
preventing it — is nothing new. It's the need for more information that field of science can yield that's increasingly vital. Superstorm
Sandy and the onslaught of similar catastrophic events bear the fingerprint of climate change. Growing evidence that more of the same is on
the way brings a new urgency for information that people can actually use to prepare, survive, and even thrive on a changing planet, Moss
explained. Hope lost? The
push for adaptation science also represents a shift in climate policy circles away
from an agenda focused solely on cutting greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the impact of climate
change, according to Adam Fenech, a climate scientist at the University of Prince Edward Island in Canada who has studied adaptation
science for about 15 years. He did not contribute to the article in Science. For most of this time, "people wouldn't even consider
adaptation. It was a bad word. You couldn't bring it up," he told NBC News. "But now it has been
accepted probably because people have either abandoned completely or abandoned faith in the
international climate change negotiations." In addition, Fenech said, people are coming to grips with the fact
that the world is committed to a certain degree of climate change no matter what is done to cut
emissions. The thinking goes " we're going to have to live with it anyway," he explained. "And that's
adaptation." The Science article does not advocate abandoning mitigation efforts, but rather elucidates the need for
adaptation, noted Joe Casola, director of the science and impacts program at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, an
environmental think tank in Arlington, Va. "I think that both of them are going to be required," he told NBC News. "The more mitigation we do,
the less adaptation we'll need," added Casola, who was not involved with the Science article. "If we were to do no mitigation, then our
adaptation investments now are probably going to be made worthless or very, very limited as we have a lot of changes to deal with in the
climate system." Institute of adaptation Key to making adaptation work is an acknowledgement that climate is just one factor planners are
forced to wrestle with as they make decisions, noted Moss, whose lab is funded by the Department of Energy.
Only adaptation solves
IPCC 14 (IPCC, “Adaptation to Global Warming - IPCC Report,” Climate UU, 2014, http://climate.uu-uno.org/topics/view/23692/)
Adaptation to climate change / global warming will be needed along with mitigation. Because impacts are already
being observed and because the ocean takes a long time to heat up, mitigation - although crucial - will not be
enough. Adaptation unfortunately will not be a simple matter. The human race is no longer composed of small groups of
hunter-gatherers, but billions of people generally living in highly arranged societies with limited mobility. The worse the impacts of
global warming, the more difficult adaptation will be. We should start planning for adaptation now,
along with mitigation to try to lessen the impact of global warming. However, adaptation should not be
used as an excuse not to mitigate global warming. The most complete compendium on adaptation is the
2014 IPCC Report, Vol WGII (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability).
Mitigation and adaptation are possible
Pearson 11 (Charles S. Pearson, “Senior Adjunct Professor of International Economics and Environment at the Diplomatic Academy of
Vienna and Professor Emeritus at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC,” “Economics
and the Challenge of Global Warming,” pg. 106, 2011,
http://books.google.com/books?id=MDFQX2w7N5EC&pg=PA106&lpg=PA106&dq=%22global+warming%22+AND+%22no+adaptation%22&sou
rce=bl&ots=Ki4SHTBz5-&sig=NQs_hBA1qjfowQITf0GsEZeXC_g&hl=en&sa=X&ei=qNu9U8riMIqpyASvYCADA&ved=0CEAQ6AEwBA#v=onepage&q=no%20adaptation&f=false)
Bosello et al. (2010) also conclude that mitigation and adaptation are strategic complements. They fold into
an optimization model three types of adaptation measures - anticipatory, reactive, and adaptation R&D - to sort out the relative contributions
and timing of mitigation and adaptation expenditures in an optimal climate policy.
The results appear to depend heavily on
two factors: uncertainty regarding a catastrophic outcome, and the discount rate. The lower the dis- count rate
and the greater the concern for catastrophic outcomes, the greater the role for mitigation relative to adaptation. These
are not surprising because of the delay between expenditure and damages prevented with mitigation, and because adaptation
copes poorly with catastrophic outcomes. They also conclude that expenditures should be tilled toward
mitigation in the short run. These analyses are informative, but one should remember we are far from a
world in which governments cooperate in a globally efficient mitigation effort, where all adaptation opportunities
are recognized and acted on, and where allocations for mitigation and adaptation expenses are drawn from a single purse.
No Extinction
Warming won’t lead to complete extinction
Green 11 (Roedy, PHD from British Colombia, “Extinction of Man”, http://mindprod.com/environment/extinction.html//umich-mp)
Mankind is embarking on a strange ecological experiment. Over a couple of centuries, man
is burning the carbon accumulated
over millions of years by plants. The CO₂ levels are now at the level of the Permian extinction. There have
been two mass extinctions in earth history, the Permian, 230 million years ago, was the worst. 70% of all species were lost. It was caused by
natural global warming when volcanoes released greenhouse gases. (The other extinction event more familiar to most people was the more
recent KT Cretaceous-Tertiary Mass Extinction event, 65 million years ago. It was caused when an asteroid plunged into the earth at Chicxulub
Mexico wiping out the dinosaurs and half of earth’s species.) We
are re-experiencing the same global warming
conditions that triggered the more devastating Permian extinction, only this time it is man made. When
it gets too hot, plants die. When it gets too hot and dry, massive fires ravage huge areas. When plants die, insects and herbivores die. When
insects die, even heat-resistant plant’s don’t get pollinated and die. Birds die without insects to eat. Carnivores die without herbivores to eat, all
triggered by what seems so innocuous — heat. Similarly, in the oceans, when they get just a few degrees too warm, corals expel their symbiotic
algae and die soon thereafter. When coral reefs die, the fish that live on them die, triggering extinction chains. Satellites can chart the loss of
vegetation over the planet. We are losing 4 species per hour, a rate on the same scale as the Permian and KT extinction events. Man has no
ability to live without the support of other species. We are committing suicide and killing the family of life on earth along with us. The question
is, will
we wipe ourselves out along with the rest of the planet’s ecology? Man is very adaptable. He
will destroy his food supply on land and in the oceans as a result, but some people will survive. That is
not complete extinction.
Their impacts are all empirically denied ---- past temperatures were substantially
warmer than the present
Idso and Idso in ‘7 (Sherwood, Research Physicist @ US Water Conservation laboratory, and Craig, President of Center for the Study
of Carbon Dioxide and Global change and PhD in Geography, “Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Separating Scientific Fact from Personal
Opinion”, 6-6, http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/hansen/HansenTestimonyCritique.pdf)
In an attempt to depict earth's current temperature as being extremely high and, therefore, extremely dangerous,
Hansen focuses almost exclusively on a single point of the earth's surface in the Western Equatorial Pacific, for which he and others (Hansen et al., 2006) compared modern sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) with paleo-SSTs that were derived by Medina-Elizade and Lea (2005) from the Mg/Ca ratios of shells of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides rubber
concluded that “this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole [our italics], is
as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ~1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years [our italics].” Is
there any compelling reason to believe these claims of Hansen et al. about the entire planet? In a word, no, because there are a
multitude of other single-point measurements that suggest something vastly different. Even in their own paper, Hansen
that they obtained from an ocean sediment core. In doing so, they
approximately
et al. present data from the Indian Ocean that indicate, as best we can determine from their graph, that SSTs there were about 0.75°C warmer than they are currently some 125,000 years ago
during the prior interglacial. Likewise, based on data obtained from the Vostok ice core in Antarctica, another of their graphs suggests that temperatures at that location some 125,000 years
ago were about 1.8°C warmer than they are now; while data from two sites in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific indicate it was approximately 2.3 to 4.0°C warmer compared to the present at
about that time. In fact, Petit et al.’s (1999) study of the Vostok ice core demonstrates that large periods of all four of the interglacials that preceded the Holocene were more than 2°C warmer
we don’t have to go nearly so far back in time to demonstrate the nonuniqueness of current temperatures. Of the five SST records that Hansen et al. display, three of them
indicate the mid-Holocene was also warmer than it is today. Indeed, it has been known for many years that the central portion of the current
than the peak warmth of the current interglacial. But
interglacial was much warmer than its latter stages have been. To cite just a few examples of pertinent work conducted in the 1970s and 80s – based on temperature reconstructions derived
from studies of latitudinal displacements of terrestrial vegetation (Bernabo and Webb, 1977; Wijmstra, 1978; Davis et al., 1980; Ritchie et al., 1983; Overpeck, 1985) and vertical displacements
of alpine plants (Kearney and Luckman, 1983) and mountain glaciers (Hope et al., 1976; Porter and Orombelli, 1985) – we note it was concluded by Webb et al. (1987) and the many COHMAP
Members (1988) that mean annual temperatures in the Midwestern United States were about 2°C greater than those of the past few decades (Bartlein et al., 1984; Webb, 1985), that summer
temperatures in Europe were 2°C warmer (Huntley and Prentice, 1988) – as they also were in New Guinea (Hope et al., 1976) – and that temperatures in the Alps were as much as 4°C warmer
(Porter and Orombelli, 1985; Huntley and Prentice, 1988). Likewise, temperatures in the Russian Far East are reported to have been from 2°C (Velitchko and Klimanov, 1990) to as much as 46°C (Korotky et al., 1988) higher than they were in the 1970s and 80s; while the mean annual temperature of the Kuroshio Current between 22 and 35°N was 6°C warmer (Taira, 1975). Also,
the southern boundary of the Pacific boreal region was positioned some 700 to 800 km north of its present location (Lutaenko, 1993). But we needn’t go back to even the mid-Holocene to
the Medieval Warm Period, centered on about AD 1100, had lots of them. In fact, every single week since 1 Feb 2006,
testifies to the existence of this severalcenturies-long period of notable warmth, in a feature we call our Medieval Warm Period Record of the Week. Also, whenever it has been possible to make
encounter warmer-than-present temperatures, as
we have featured on our website (www.co2science.org) a different peer-reviewed scientific journal article that
either a quantitative or qualitative comparison between the peak temperature of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period (CWP), we have
a quick perusal of these ever-growing
databases (reproduced below as of 23 May 2007) indicates that, in the overwhelming majority of cases, the peak warmth
of the Medieval Warm Period was significantly greater than the peak warmth of the Current Warm Period.
included those results in the appropriate quantitative or qualitative frequency distributions we have posted within this feature; and
Global warming is nearing its end
Solomon 09 (Lawrence Solomon, writer for the Financial Post, “The end is near; The media, polls and even scientists suggest the global
warming scare is all over but the shouting,” National Post, October 3, 2009, http://www.lexisnexis.com/hottopics/lnacademic/)
The great global warming scare is over -- it is well past its peak, very much a spent force, sputtering in fits and starts to a
whimpering end. You may not know this yet. Or rather, you may know it but don't want to acknowledge it until every one else does, and that won't happen until the
press, much of which also knows it, formally acknowledges it. I
know that the global warming scare is over but for the shouting
because that's what the polls show, at least those in the U.S., where unlike Canada the public is polled extensively on global warming. Most
Americans don't blame humans for climate change -- they consider global warming to be a natural
phenomenon. Even when the polls showed the public believed man was responsible for global warming,
the public didn't take the scare seriously. When asked to rank global warming's importance compared to
numerous other concerns -- unemployment, trade, health care, poverty, crime, and education among
them -- global warming came in dead last. Fewer than 1% chose global warming as scare-worthy. The
informed members of the media read those polls and know the global warming scare is over, too. Andrew Revkin, The New York Times reporter entrusted with the
global warming scare beat, has for months lamented "the public's waning interest in global warming." His colleague at the Washington Post, Andrew Freedman,
does his best to revive public fear, and to get politicians to act, by urging experts to up their hype so that the press will have scarier material to run with. The experts
do their best to give us the willies. This week they
offered up plagues of locusts in China and a warning that the 2016 Olympics "could be the last
for mankind" because "the earth has passed the point of no return." But the press has also begun to tire
of Armageddon All-The-Time, and (I believe) to position itself for its inevitable attack on the doomsters.
In an online article in June entitled "Massive Estimates of Death are in Vogue for Copenhagen," Richard Cable of the BBC, until then the most stalwart of scaremongers, rattled off the global warnings du jour -they included a comparison of global warming to nuclear war and a report from the former Secretary General of
the UN, Kofi Annan, to the effect that "every
year climate change leaves over 300,000 people dead, 325-million people
seriously affected, and economic losses of US $125 -billion." Cable's conclusion: "The problem is that once
you've sat up and paid attention enough to examine them a bit more closely, you find that the means by
which the figures were arrived at isn't very compelling... The report contains so many extrapolations
derived from guesswork based on estimates inferred from unsuitable data." The scientist-scare-mongers, seeing the
diminishing returns that come of their escalating claims of catastrophe, also know their stock is falling. Until now, they have all toughed it out when the data
disagreed with their findings -as it does on every major climate issue, without exception. Some
scientists, like Germany's Mojib Latif,
have begun to break ranks. Frustrated by embarrassing questions about why the world hasn't seen any
warming over the last decade, Latif, a tireless veteran of the public speaking circuits, now explains that
global warming has paused, to resume in 2020 or perhaps 2030. "People understand what I'm saying but then
basically wind up saying, 'We don't believe anything,'" he told The New York Times this week. And why should they believe anything
that comes from the global warming camp? Not only has the globe not warmed over the last decade but the Arctic ice
is returning , the Antarctic isn't shrinking, polar bear populations aren't diminishing, hurricanes aren't
becoming more extreme. The only thing that's scary about the science is the frequency with which doomsayer data is hidden from public scrutiny,
manipulated to mislead, or simply made up. None of this matters anymore, I recently heard at the Global Business Forum in Banff, where a fellow panelist from the
Pew Centre on Global Climate Change told the audience that, while she couldn't dispute the claims I had made about the science being dubious, the rights and
wrongs in the global warming debate are no longer relevant. "The train has left the station," she cheerily told the business audience, meaning that the debate is
over, global warming regulations are coming in, and everyone in the room -- primarily business movers and shakers from Western Canada --had better learn to
adapt.
CO2 GOOD (AG DA)
1NC (USE AS CASE TURNS)
High levels of CO2 are key to environmental prosperity
Carlisle 01 (John Carlisle, national policy analyst, “Carbon Dioxide is Good for the Environment,” National Policy Analysis, April 2001,
http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA334.html)
Carbon dioxide is good for the environment.
That simple fact must be restated to counter environmentalists' baseless
allegations that the accumulation of man-made carbon dioxide, produced by cars, power plants and other human activities, is causing
dangerous global warming. Indeed, far from being a poisonous gas that will wreak havoc on the planet's ecosystem, carbon
dioxide is
arguably the Earth's best friend in that trees, wheat, peanuts, flowers, cotton and numerous other
plants significantly benefit from increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Dr. Craig Idso of the Center
for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, one of the nation's leading carbon dioxide research centers,
examined records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and air temperature over the last
250,000 years. There were three dramatic episodes of global warming that occurred at the end of the last three ice ages. Interestingly,
temperatures started to rise during those warming periods well before the atmospheric carbon dioxide started to increase. In fact, the carbon
dioxide levels did not begin to rise until 400 to 1,000 years after the planet began to warm. Concludes Dr. Idso, "Clearly, there is no way that
these real-world observations can be construed to even hint at the possibility that a significant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will
necessarily lead to any global warming."1 On the other hand, scientists have
lots of evidence demonstrating that
increased carbon dioxide levels leads to healthier plants. A team of scientists in Nevada conducted a five-year
experiment in which they grew one group of ponderosa pine trees at the current carbon dioxide atmospheric level of about 360 parts per
million (ppm) and another group of pines at 700 ppm. The doubled carbon dioxide level increased tree height by 43
percent and diameter by 24 percent. Similarly, a team of scientists from Virginia Tech University
reported that growing loblolly pine trees in a greenhouse with a carbon dioxide concentration of 700 ppm increased
average tree height 9 percent, diameter by 7 percent, needle biomass by 16 percent and root biomass by 33 percent.2 Increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide doesn't just make a plant bigger. Carbon dioxide also makes plants more
resistant to extreme weather conditions . In a study discussed in the journal Plant Ecology, a team of scientists subjected the
Mojave Desert evergreen shrub to three different concentrations of carbon dioxide - the current level of 360 ppm and at 550 ppm and 700
ppm. The plants, which were being grown in simulated drought conditions, responded more favorably
in the carbon dioxiderich environments. Photosynthetic activity doubled in the 550 ppm environment and tripled at 700 ppm.
Increased photosynthetic activity enables plants to withstand drought better.3 Likewise, a team of biologists grew
seedlings of three yucca plants in cooler greenhouse environments at the 360 ppm and 700 ppm concentrations. The yucca plants
exposed to the enhanced carbon dioxide concentration showed a greater resistance to the colder
temperatures. Dr. Robert Balling, a climatologist at Arizona State University, notes that by making plants healthier
and more resistant to extreme weather conditions, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide expands
the habitat of many plants, improves rangeland in semi-arid areas and enhances agricultural
productivity in arid areas.4 Another benefit of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide is that it helps the
tropical rainforests. Scientists from Venezuela and the United Kingdom grew several species of tropical trees and
other plants in greenhouse conditions at carbon dioxide concentrations double the current level. The plants
responded favorably, showing an increase in photosynthetic activity. The scientists concluded that, "In a
future atmosphere with a higher carbon dioxide concentration, these species should be able to show a
higher productivity than today."5 Another team of British and New Zealand researchers grew tropical trees for 119 days at
elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. They found that the enriched carbon dioxide environment stimulated
the trees' root growth by 23 percent. Expanded root systems help tropical trees by increasing their
ability to absorb water and nutrients.6 Bigger trees, increased resistance to bad weather, improved
agricultural productivity and a boon to rainforests are just some of the many benefits that carbon dioxide
bestows on the environment. With little evidence that carbon dioxide triggers dangerous global warming but lots of evidence
showing how carbon dioxide helps the environment, environmentalists should be extolling the virtues of this benign
greenhouse gas.
CO2 good for the environment
Idso and Idso 10 (Keith Idso, Vice President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Craig Idso, founder,
former president and current chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “Feeding the Future
World ,” CO2 Science, September 29, 2010, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N39/EDIT.php)
In terms of confronting this daunting challenge, Zhu et al. say that "meeting
future increases in demand will have to come
from a near doubling of productivity on a land area basis," and they opine that "a large contribution will have to
come from improved photosynthetic conversion efficiency," for which they estimate that "at least a 50%
improvement will be required to double global production." The researchers' reason for focusing on
photosynthetic conversion efficiency derives from the experimentally-observed facts that (1) increases
in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration increase the photosynthetic rates of nearly all plants, and that
(2) those rate increases generally lead to equivalent -- or only slightly smaller -- increases in plant productivity on a land area
basis, thereby providing a solid foundation for their enthusiasm in this regard. In their review of the matter, however, they
examine the prospects for boosting photosynthetic conversion efficiency in an entirely different way: by
doing it genetically and without increasing the air's CO2 content. So what is the likelihood that their goal can be
reached via this approach?
High levels of atmospheric CO2 spur plant growth
Idso and Idso 14 (Dr. Sherwood B. Idso, president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Dr. Keith E. Idso,
, Vice President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “CO2 to the Rescue ... Again!,” CO2 Science, 2014,
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V5/N22/COM.php)
Atmospheric CO2 enrichment has long been known to help earth's plants withstand the debilitating effects of
various environmental stresses, such as high temperature, excessive salinity levels and deleterious air pollution, as well as the negative
consequences of certain resource limitations, such as less than optimal levels of light, water and nutrients (Idso and Idso, 1994). Now, in
an
important new study, Johnson et al. (2002) present evidence indicating that elevated levels of
atmospheric CO2 do the same thing for soil microbes in the face of the enhanced receipt of solar
ultraviolet-B radiation that would be expected to occur in response to a 15% depletion of the earth's stratospheric ozone layer. In
addition, their study demonstrates that this phenomenon will likely have important consequences for soil
carbon sequestration. Johnson et al. conducted their landmark work on experimental plots of subarctic heath located close to the
Abisko Scientific Research Station in Swedish Lapland (68.35°N, 18.82°E). The plots they studied were composed of open canopies of Betula
pubescens ssp. czerepanovii and dense dwarf-shrub layers containing scattered herbs and grasses. For
a period of five years, the
scientists exposed the plots to factorial combinations of UV-B radiation - ambient and that expected to result from a
15% stratospheric ozone depletion - and atmospheric CO2 concentration - ambient (around 365 ppm) and enriched (around 600
ppm) - after which they determined the amounts of microbial carbon (Cmic) and nitrogen (Nmic) in the soils of the plots. When the plots were
exposed to the enhanced UV-B radiation level expected to result from a 15% depletion of the planet's stratospheric ozone layer, the
researchers found that the amount of Cmic in the soil was reduced to only 37% of what it was at the ambient UV-B level when the air's CO2
content was maintained at the ambient concentration. When
the UV-B increase was accompanied by the CO2 increase,
only was there not a decrease in Cmic, there was an actual increase of fully 37%. The story with
respect to Nmic was both similar and different at one and the same time. In this case, when the plots were exposed to the
enhanced level of UV-B radiation, the amount of Nmic in the soil experienced a 69% increase when the
air's CO2 content was maintained at the ambient concentration. When the UV-B increase was
accompanied by the CO2 increase, however, Nmic rose even more, experiencing a whopping 138%
increase. These findings, in the words of Johnson et al., "may have far-reaching implications ... because the productivity of many semihowever, not
natural ecosystems is limited by N (Ellenberg, 1988)." Hence, the 138% increase in soil microbial N observed in this study to accompany a 15%
reduction in stratospheric ozone and a concomitant 64% increase in atmospheric CO2concentration (experienced in going from 365 ppm to 600
ppm) should do wonders in enhancing the input of plant litter to the soils of these ecosystems, which phenomenon represents the first half of
the carbon sequestration process, i.e., the carbon input stage.
Biodiversity
Mapping Can’t Solve
Can’t solve, too many regional differences for one machine to cover
Rosenfeld 12 (Dr. Leslie Rosenfeld is currently a Research Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and an oceanographic consultant. She has a Ph.D. in Physical
Oceanography, and is a recognized expert on the California Current System, specializing in circulation over the continental shelf. December 2012. Synthesis of Regional IOOS Build-out Plans ¶
for the Next Decade from the Integrated Ocean Observing System Association.
http://www.ioosassociation.org/sites/nfra/files/documents/ioos_documents/regional/BOP%20Synthesis%20Final.pdf July 6, 2014.)
Types of hazards and needed products have many common elements throughout the country but ¶ also
unique regional differences. For example, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the ¶ southeastern U.S.
experience more frequent and more intense hurricanes than other regions of ¶ the country. Substantial
improvements in the NWS forecasts of storm intensity, track, and ¶ timing of passage are necessary for
timely evacuations of communities and offshore facilities in ¶ the path of the storm, while avoiding
evacuations that are unnecessary. Long-term plans for ¶ these regions include close coordination of
data productS with the needs of hurricane modelers, ¶ including providing information on ocean heat
content via air-deployed sensors during hurricane ¶ approach and passage, and autonomous underwater
vehicles to monitor the water column. ¶ With the rapid loss of sea ice, Arctic weather and ocean
conditions are increasingly endangering ¶ Alaska Native coastal communities. In a statewide assessment,
flooding and erosion affects 184 ¶ out of 213 Native villages (GAO, 2003). This presents unique
challenges in forecasting and ¶ effectively communicating conditions for small communities in isolated
locations. These and ¶ many other types of regional differences must be considered when tailoring and
refining ¶ common information needs.
Regional Differences just make it to hard for the aff to solve in its entirety
Rosenfeld 12 (Dr. Leslie Rosenfeld is currently a Research Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and an oceanographic consultant. She has a Ph.D. in Physical
Oceanography, and is a recognized expert on the California Current System, specializing in circulation over the continental shelf. December 2012. Synthesis of Regional IOOS Build-out Plans ¶
for the Next Decade from the Integrated Ocean Observing System Association.
http://www.ioosassociation.org/sites/nfra/files/documents/ioos_documents/regional/BOP%20Synthesis%20Final.pdf July 6, 2014.)
Water quality issues also exhibit a variety of regionally unique differences. For example, water ¶ quality
contamination in the Great Lakes is not only an issue for wildlife, but also for 40 million ¶ consumers of
public drinking water in the region. To address this concern, GLOS will provide a ¶ decision support tool
to track the movement of drinking water contaminants, and will provide 19 ¶ model output that helps
county officials manage drinking water intake systems to avoid ¶ contamination. ¶ ¶ Tracking of water
quality plumes and impacts also has unique challenges in the Gulf of Mexico. ¶ Drainage from urban
development, industries and farmland comes into the Gulf from the ¶ enormous Mississippi River
watershed, covering 1,245,000 square miles and 41% of the 48 ¶ contiguous states of the U.S. This
drainage leads to hypoxic conditions (low dissolved oxygen ¶ content) in summertime over the TexasLouisiana shelf waters, and delivers large loads of ¶ sediment and associated pollutants to nearshore
environments such as recreational waters and ¶ shellfish beds. Informed management decisions require
a broad distribution of platforms, ¶ sensors and derived products to track this plume and its impacts
through estuaries, nearshore and ¶ offshore habitats.
Mapping can’t solve—too difficult to perfect and maintain
Rosenfeld 12 (Dr. Leslie Rosenfeld is currently a Research Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and an oceanographic consultant. She has a Ph.D. in Physical
Oceanography, and is a recognized expert on the California Current System, specializing in circulation over the continental shelf. December 2012. Synthesis of Regional IOOS Build-out Plans ¶
for the Next Decade from the Integrated Ocean Observing System Association.
http://www.ioosassociation.org/sites/nfra/files/documents/ioos_documents/regional/BOP%20Synthesis%20Final.pdf July 6, 2014.)
Effective utilization of the observing system requires translation of the data and model outputs ¶ into
targeted products and decision support tools for a variety of users. The process of product ¶
development ultimately links management decisions to desired products, to the information ¶ needed
to produce the products, to data and models required to create that information and ¶ finally to the
essential observing system requirements. ¶ ¶ Successful engagement with users and the resultant
product development is at the heart of ¶ ultimate success of the 10-year build-out plan. The 27 key
products identified as part of the ¶ build-out plans include products that have already been successfully
developed and utilized by ¶ one or more RAs as well as many cases where development is either not
underway or is in the ¶ early stages. Successful completion of development for these 27 products for all
the regions, and ¶ completion of additional unique regional products will involve multiple components,
as outlined ¶ below. Sufficient funding needs to be identified to carry the process for a given product
need ¶ through to completion, to ensure effective management and meeting of user expectations. ¶ ¶
Iterative two-way engagement with users is required for effective product development, often ¶ based
on small group discussions with key decision makers and technical staff in the user ¶ community. It may
also include surveys, user advisory panels, targeted workshops, and ¶ discussions at existing forums of
the targeted users. This provides an understanding of the user’s ¶ objectives, the scope of the issue and
the decision processes they use. Those user decisions or ¶ management needs that could most benefit
from IOOS products can then be identified and ¶ prioritized, including products involving data, processed
information, visualizations, models and ¶ decision support tools. ¶ ¶ Product development teams focused
on specific priority needs should be created, including RA ¶ staff, key partners and users. The RAs should
act as intermediaries that can translate between ¶ researchers and users, and should stay engaged
throughout the process. After fully ¶ understanding user needs, the teams evaluate the variables,
temporal and spatial scale and ¶ resolution, and data quality required to meet those needs. They
evaluate current coastal IOOS, or ¶ other, products that could be used or modified, or new products
that could be developed to meet ¶ needs. This should include evaluation across all 11 RAs and federal
agencies to identify useful 26 ¶ building blocks and approaches for products. Identification of any gaps
between the user’s ¶ information requirements and current coastal IOOS capabilities can then be
identified, and, ¶ where possible, technical means to fill them can be developed. This should include
engaging ¶ partners who may provide critical data or fulfill specific modeling needs, and pursuit of
funding ¶ sources to fill gaps, if not already obtained. ¶ ¶ In addition to addressing technical issues, the
team should identify any institutional issues among ¶ users that must be overcome to fully utilize IOOS
products, and where possible work with them ¶ to develop approaches to overcome these barriers.
Institutional issues include agency and ¶ industry policies and practices, regulations and permit
procedures, perspectives and ¶ communication patterns, staff expertise, training and workload, and/or
governance structures that ¶ could impede full use of IOOS information in decision-making. Addressing
these issues will ¶ likely require engagement with management representatives of the user agency or
organization. ¶ ¶ Development of the initial product includes software development to access and
integrate data, ¶ and any necessary documentation and instructions, including description of the
metadata. ¶ Testing and evaluation of the product must be conducted with a subset of the user group, ¶
followed by training for a larger user group, along with refinement of the product as needed. ¶ ¶ Product
development also includes evaluation of the most effective means to package and ¶ distribute the
information, e.g. through websites, e-mail notifications, use of existing channels ¶ already favored by the
user, reports, etc. Product release should be prefaced by an evaluation to ¶ ensure that the product is
ready to move from the developmental stage to full operational use and ¶ broad implementation, and a
notification system for the targeted user group. Operational ¶ implementation of the product should
include ongoing engagement with the users to adapt and ¶ modify products as needed as experience
builds with product use, conditions or requirements ¶ change, or new data becomes available. ¶ ¶ As is
evident from the above list, development of effective user products is a critical but costly ¶ and timeconsuming endeavor, and often includes work that is different from what is involved in ¶ the modeling
and data management subsystems. Staff needs for product development and user ¶ engagement
typically range from five to six full-time equivalents (FTE)s for each RA, and ¶ involve multiple types of
staff including technical, outreach and management needed at various ¶ times during the activities
outlined above. Meeting the need for adequate product development ¶ funding and staff time, and
achieving coordination and synergism among the RAs in creating the ¶ common products will be an
essential component of success in implementing the build-out plan ¶ over the next 10 years.
SQ Solves-Mapping
Data Insufficiency is being fixed in the Status Quo—the plan isn’t needed
Piotroski 14 (Jon Piotroski is known for his articles on the science development website. He has written numerous articles pertaining to oceanography, climate change, and other
environmental issues. 03/20/14 from SciDev. Tidal wave of ocean data leaves scientists swamped. http://www.scidev.net/global/data/news/tidal-wave-of-ocean-data-leaves-scientistsswamped.html July 3, 2014)
A lack of data curators and managers capable of cleaning up observational measurements, particularly in
less developed nations, is limiting the scale and scope of ocean research, researchers have said on the
sidelines of an oceans science meeting.¶ To deal with the challenge, the Ocean Sciences Meeting in
Hawaii last month (23-28 February) heard proposals for creating a comprehensive, quality controlled
database.¶ This would help overcome limited scientific capacity and allow under-resourced researchers
to better participate in efforts to understand pressing issues such as climate change, scientists said.¶ The
complexities involved in transforming raw oceanographic data into a useable state means researchers
with limited data skills or financial resources are less able to meet the necessary standard, said Stephen
Diggs, a data manager at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, in the United States.¶ The explosion of
ocean data being collected through modern methods exceeds scientists’ capacity to deal with it, he told
SciDev.Net on the fringes of the conference.¶ “There definitely needs to be workforce development to
get more data curators and managers that come out of their training ready to deal with this,” he said.¶
Interdisciplinary work that is crucial for answering questions such as what effect climate change is
having on marine environments is especially sensitive to reliability issues, he added.¶ This is because,
when faced with data sets from various disciplines, researchers often lack the expertise to spot and
correct all the biases created by the idiosyncrasies of different regions and collection methods, he said.¶
Providing researchers with rigorously quality controlled data from outside their immediate field was the
motivation behind a proposed initiative, which called for scientists’ support at a town hall meeting
during the conference.¶ The International Quality-Controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) would combine
automated, large-scale data cleaning done by computers with finer-grained expert analysis. The goal
would be to produce a definitive database of the data from the 13 million locations with sea surface
temperature records — some dating back to the eighteenth century — scattered across various
institutions.¶ According to Diggs, this would significantly improve on the oceanographic database hosted
at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Oceanographic Data
Center. Even though NOAA's only conducts limited automated quality control its repository of marine
datasets is the world’s most comprehensive.¶ Other variables, such as salinity and oxygen concentrations
in the water, could be added to the temperature data as the IQuOD project progresses, said Diggs.
IOOS and other tech already solve
National Academy 11 (provide a public service by working outside the framework of government to ensure independent advice on matters of
¶
science, technology, and medicine. They enlist committees of the nation’s top scientists, engineers, and other experts— all of whom volunteer their time to study
specific concerns. 08/24/2011. Ocean Exploration from the National Academies. http://oceanleadership.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Ocean_Exploration.pdf
July 6, 2014).
¶
U.S. and international efforts have made significant progress in recent years to-¶ ward establishing
ocean observatories. The Integrated Ocean Observing System ¶ (IOOS), the U.S. contribution to the
international Global Ocean Observing Sys-¶ tem, is designed as a large network that collects highresolution data along the ¶ entire U.S. coast. This information supports a wide range of operational
services, ¶ including weather forecasts, coastal warning systems, and the monitoring of algal blooms. ¶
The Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), a National ¶ Science Foundation program, will enable landbased ¶ exploration and monitoring of processes throughout the ¶ seafloor, water column, and
overlying atmosphere by ¶ real-time, remote interactions with arrays of sensors, in-¶ struments, and
autonomous vehicles. For the first time, ¶ The world’s first underwater cabled observatory to span an
entire ¶ plate will be installed as part of a collaborative effort between the ¶ U.S. Ocean Observatories
Initiative (OOI) and U.S. and Canadian ¶ institutions. Fiberoptic cables will extend high bandwidth and
power ¶ to a network of hundreds of sensors across, above, and below the ¶ seafloor, allowing in situ,
interactive monitoring of the ocean and ¶ seafloor for the next 20 to 30 years. Image courtesy University
of ¶ Washington Center for Environmental Visualization.¶ Discover scientists, educators and ¶ the public
will have real-¶ time access to the data and ¶ imagery being collected, so that ¶ they can learn about
events such as ¶ underwater volcanic eruptions and anoxia ¶ events as they happen, even if there are
no ships ¶ in the area.
SQ Conservation Solves
Status Quo Solves -- US already implementing conservation programs to prevent
impacts
Tullo 14 (Michelle Tulo is a writer for various news magazines, in particular IPS. IPS is a reputable communication institution that specializes in global news. U.S. Turns Attention to
Ocean Conservation, Food Security from IPS (Inter Press Service) on 06/19/14. http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/06/u-s-turns-attention-to-ocean-conservation-food-security/ July 7, 2014.)
A first-time U.S.-hosted summit on protecting the oceans has resulted in pledges worth some 800
million dollars to be used for conservation efforts.¶ During the summit, held here in Washington, the
administration of President Barack Obama pledged to massively expand U.S.-protected parts of the
southern Pacific Ocean. In an effort to strengthen global food security, the president has also announced
a major push against illegal fishing and to create a national strategic plan for aquaculture.¶ “If we drain
our resources, we won’t just be squandering one of humanity’s greatest treasures, we’ll be cutting off
one of the world’s leading sources of food and economic growth, including for the United States,”
President Obama said via video Tuesday morning.¶ The “Our Ocean” conference, held Monday and
Tuesday at the U.S. State Department, brought together ministers, heads of state, as well as civil society
and private sector representatives from almost 90 countries. The summit, hosted by Secretary of State
John Kerry, focused on overfishing, pollution and ocean acidification, all of which threaten global food
security.¶ In his opening remarks, Kerry noted that ocean conservation constitutes a “great necessity”
for food security. “More than three billion people, 50 percent of the people on this planet, in every
corner of the world depend on fish as a significant source of protein,” he said.¶ Proponents hope that
many of the solutions being used by U.S. scientists, policymakers and fishermen could serve to help
international communities.¶ “There is increasing demand for seafood with diminished supply … We need
to find ways to make seafood sustainable to rich and poor countries alike,” Danielle Nierenberg, the
president of FoodTank, a Washington think tank, told IPS.
No Impact-Species
No species snowball
Roger A Sedjo 2k, Sr. Fellow, Resources for the Future, Conserving Nature’s Biodiversity: insights from
biology, ethics & economics, eds. Van Kooten, Bulte and Sinclair, p 114
As a critical input into the existence of humans and of life on earth, biodiversity obviously has a very high value (at least to humans). But, as
with other resource questions, including public goods, biodiversity
is not an either/or question, but rather a question of
“how much.”
Thus, we may argue as to how much biodiversity is desirable or is required for human life (threshold) and how much is
desirable (insurance) and at what price, just as societies argue over the appropriate amount and cost of national defense. As discussed by
Simpson, the value of water is small even though it is essential to human life, while diamonds are inessential but valuable to humans. The
reason has to do with relative abundance and scarcity, with market value pertaining to the marginal unit. This water-diamond paradox can be
applied to biodiversity. Although
biological diversity is essential, a single species has only limited value, since
the global system will continue to function without that species. Similarly, the value of a piece of
biodiversity (e.g., 10 ha of tropical forest) is small to negligible since its contribution to the functioning of the
global biodiversity is negligible. The global ecosystem can function with “somewhat more” or
“somewhat less” biodiversity, since there have been larger amounts in times past and some losses in
recent times. Therefore, in the absence of evidence to indicate that small habitat losses threaten the
functioning of the global life support system, the value of these marginal habitats is negligible. The “value
question” is that of how valuable to the life support function are species at the margin. While this, in principle, is an empirical question, in
practice it is probably unknowable. However, thus
far, biodiversity losses appear to have had little or no effect on the
functioning of the earth’s life support system, presumably due to the resiliency of the system, which
perhaps is due to the redundancy found in the system. Through most of its existence, earth has had far less biological
diversity. Thus, as in the water-diamond paradox, the value of the marginal unit of biodiversity appears to be very small.
No extinction
Easterbrook 2003
Gregg, senior fellow at the New Republic, We're All Gonna Die!
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=2&topic=&topic_set=
If we're talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply don't measure up. A single
nuclear bomb ignited by terrorists, for example, would be awful beyond words, but life would go on. People and machines might converge in
ways that you and I would find ghastly, but from the standpoint of the future, they would probably represent an adaptation.
Environmental collapse might make parts of the globe unpleasant, but considering that the biosphere
has survived ice ages, it wouldn't be the final curtain. Depression, which has become 10 times more prevalent in Western
nations in the postwar era, might grow so widespread that vast numbers of people would refuse to get out of bed, a possibility that Petranek
suggested in a doomsday talk at the Technology Entertainment Design conference in 2002. But Marcel Proust, as miserable as he was, wrote
Remembrance of Things Past while lying in bed.
No Impact-Exaggerated
Environmental threats exaggerated
Gordon 95 - a professor of mineral economics at Pennsylvania State University [Gordon, Richard,
“Ecorealism Exposed,” Regulation, 1995, http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv18n3/reg18n3readings.html
Easterbrook's argument is that although environmental problems deserve attention, the
environmental movement has
exaggerated the threats and ignored evidence of improvement. His discontent causes him to adopt and incessantly
employ the pejoratively intended (and irritating) shorthand "enviros" to describe the leading environmental organizations and their admirers.
He proposes-and overuses-an equally infelicitous alternative phrase, "ecorealism," that seems to mean that most environmental initiatives can
be justifited by more moderate arguments. Given the mass, range, and defects of the book, any review of reasonable length must be selective.
Easterbrook's critique begins with an overview of environmentalism from a global perspective. He then turns to a much longer (almost 500page) survey of many specific environmental issues. The overview section is a shorter, more devastating criticism, but it is also more speculative
than the survey of specific issues. In essence, the overview argument is that human
impacts on the environment are minor,
easily correctable influences on a world affected by far more powerful forces. That is a more penetrating criticism
than typically appears in works expressing skepticism about environmentalism. Easterbrook notes that mankind's effects on nature
long predate industrialization or the white colonization of America, but still have had only minor
impacts. We are then reminded of the vast, often highly destructive changes that occur naturally and
the recuperative power of natural systems.
Prefer our evidence – Environmental apocalypse scenarios are always overblown and
recent human advancements solve.
Ronald Bailey 2k, science correspondent, author of Earth Report 2000: Revisiting the True State of the
Planet, former Brookes Fellow in Environmental Journalism at the Competitive Enterprise Institute,
member of the Society of Environmental Journalists, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, May 2000,
Reason Magazine, “Earth Day, Then and Now,” http://reason.com/0005/fe.rb.earth.shtml
Earth Day 1970 provoked a torrent of apocalyptic predictions. “We have about five more years at the outside to do something,” ecologist
Kenneth Watt declared to a Swarthmore College audience on April 19, 1970. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end
within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens
the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in
the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment. The day after Earth Day, even the staid New York Times editorial page warned, “Man
must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and
possible extinction.” Very Apocalypse Now. Three decades later, of course, the world hasn’t come to an end; if anything, the planet’s ecological
future has never looked so promising. With half a billion people suiting up around the globe for Earth Day 2000, now is a good time to look back
on the predictions made at the first Earth Day and see how they’ve held up and what we can learn from them. The short answer: The
prophets of doom were not simply wrong, but spectacularly wrong. More important, many
contemporary environmental alarmists are similarly mistaken when they continue to insist that the
Earth’s future remains an eco-tragedy that has already entered its final act. Such doomsters not only fail
to appreciate the huge environmental gains made over the past 30 years, they ignore the simple fact
that increased wealth, population, and technological innovation don’t degrade and destroy the
environment. Rather, such developments preserve and enrich the environment. If it is impossible to
predict fully the future, it is nonetheless possible to learn from the past. And the best lesson we can learn from
revisiting the discourse surrounding the very first Earth Day is that passionate concern, however sincere, is no substitute for rational analysis.
No Impact-Resilient
No impact --- Ocean ecosystems are resilient
CO2 Science 2008
Marine Ecosystem Response to "Ocean Acidification" Due to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment, Vogt, M.,
Steinke, M., Turner, S., Paulino, A., Meyerhofer, M., Riebesell, U., LeQuere, C. and Liss, P. 2008.
Dynamics of dimethylsulphoniopropionate and dimethylsulphide under different CO2 concentrations
during a mesocosm experiment. Biogeosciences 5: 407-419,
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V11/N29/B2.php
Vogt et al. report that they detected no significant phytoplankton species shifts between treatments, and that " the ecosystem
composition, bacterial and phytoplankton abundances and productivity, grazing rates and total grazer
abundance and reproduction were not significantly affected by CO2 induced effects," citing in support of this
statement the work of Riebesell et al. (2007), Riebesell et al. (2008), Egge et al. (2007), Paulino et al. (2007), Larsen et al. (2007), Suffrian et al.
(2008) and Carotenuto et al. (2007). In addition, they say that "while DMS stayed elevated in the treatments with elevated CO2, we observed a
steep decline in DMS concentration in the treatment with low CO2," i.e., the ambient CO2 treatment. What it means With respect to their
many findings, the eight
researchers say their observations suggest that "the system under study was
surprisingly resilient to abrupt and large pH changes," which is just the opposite of what the world's
climate alarmists characteristically predict about CO2-induced "ocean acidification." And that may be
why Vogt et al. described the marine ecosystem they studied as "surprisingly resilient" to such change: it
may have been a little unexpected.
Nature sustains damage and recovers.
Easterbrook 95 Distinguished Fellow, Fulbright Foundation (Gregg, A Moment on Earth)
Nature is not ending, nor is human damage to the environment “unprecedented.” Nature has repelled
forces of a magnitude many times greater than the worst human malfeasance. Nature is no ponderously slow. It’s
just old. Old and slow are quite different concepts. That the living world can adjust with surprising alacrity is the
reason nature has been able to get old. Most natural recoveries from ecological duress happen with
amazing speed. Significant human tampering with the environment has been in progress for at least ten millennia and perhaps longer. If
nature has been interacting with genus Homo for thousands of years, then the living things that made it to the present day may be ones whose
genetic treasury renders them best suited to resist human mischief. This
does not ensure any creature will continue to
survive any clash with humankind. It does make survival more likely than doomsday orthodox asserts. If
nature’s adjustment to the human presence began thousands of years ago, perhaps it will soon be complete. Far from reeling
helplessly before a human onslaught, nature may be on the verge of reasserting itself. Nature still rules much
more of the Earth than does genus Homo. To the statistical majority of natures creatures the arrival of men and women goes unnoticed.
No Impact-long TF
Their impact has a three hundred year timeframe
CO2 Science 2005
The Fate of Fish in a High-CO2 World, Ishimatsu, A., Hayashi, M., Lee, K.-S., Kikkawa, T. and Kita, J. 2005.
Physiological effects of fishes in a high-CO2 world. Journal of Geophysical Research 110:
10.1029/2004JC002564, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V8/N42/B3.php
Although this conclusion sounds dire indeed, it represents an egregious flight of the imagination in terms of what
could realistically be expected to happen anytime in earth's future. Ishimatsu et al. report, for example, that
"predicted future CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are lower than the known lethal concentrations
for fish," noting that "the expected peak value is about 1.4 torr [just under 1850 ppm] around the year 2300 according to
Caldeira and Wickett (2003)." So just how far below the lethal CO2 concentration for fish is 1.4 torr? In the case
of short-term exposures on the order of a few days, the authors cite a number of studies that yield
median lethal concentrations ranging from 37 to 50 torr, which values are 26 and 36 times greater than
the maximum CO2 concentration expected some 300 years from now!
No solvency-Past Tipping Point
We’re passed the tipping point.
AFP, Agence France Presse, September 15, 1999, “Outlook Grim For World’s Environment Says UN,”
http://www.rense.com/earthchanges/grimoutlook_e.htm
The United Nations warned Wednesday that the world’s environment was facing catastrophic damage as the new millennium nears, ranging
from irreversible destruction to tropical rainforests to choking air pollution and a threat to the polar ice caps. In a lengthy report, the UN
Environment Programme painted a grim tableau for the planet’s citizens in the next millennium, saying time was fast running out to devise a
policy of sustainable human development. And for some fragile eco-systems and vulnerable species, it is already too late, warns the report,
called GEO-2000. “Tropical
forest destruction has gone too far to prevent irreversible damage. It would take many
generations to replace the lost forests, and the cultures that have been lost with them can never be replaced,” it warns. “Many of the
planet’s species have already been lost or condemned to extinction because of the slow response times
of both the environment and policy-makers; it is too late to preserve all the bio-diversity the planet had.” Sounding the
alarm, the UNEP said the planet now faced “full-scale emergencies” on several fronts, including these: -- it is probably
too late to prevent global warming, a phenomenon whereby exhaust gases and other emissions will raise the temperature of the
planet and wreak climate change. Indeed, many of the targets to reduce or stabilise emissions will not be met, the
report says. -- urban air pollution problems are reaching “crisis dimensions” in the developing world’s mega-cities, inflicting damage to the
health of their inhabitants. -- the
seas are being “grossly over-exploited” and even with strenuous efforts will
take a long time to recover.
Too many alt causes to solve
Pynn 07 – Journalist for the Vancouver Sun [Larry Pynn. “Global warming not biggest threat: expert.”
The Vancouver Sun. January 27, 2007.
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=6e2988da-31ab-4697-810d7a008306d571]
The biggest immediate threat to the vast majority of endangered species in Canada is not global warming, but
issues such as habitat loss, pollution and overexploitation. "We all worry about climate change, as we should, but it
doesn't mean we shouldn't worry about protecting habitat," says James Grant, a biology professor at Concordia University in Montreal and coauthor of a new report on threats to endangered species in Canada. "The
really immediate causes right now for many
species are things like farming, urbanization and habitat loss caused by the direct things we do." Research
by Grant and his pupils shows the biggest threat is habitat loss at 84 percent, overexploitation 32 percent, native
species interactions 31 percent, natural causes 27 percent, pollution 26 percent, and introduced species
22 percent. On average, species are threatened by at least two of the six categories. Human activities representing the biggest source of
habitat loss and pollution are not industrial resource extraction, but agriculture at 46 per cent and urbanization at 44 per cent. "Farming is
huge," Grant said in an interview. "The Prairies are one of the most affected habitats in the world. We've turned them into wheat fields."The
southern Okanagan-Similkameen is another example, home to about one-third of species at risk in B.C. as well as a thriving agricultural
industry, including vineyards, and increased urban development.
No Solvency-Overpopulation swamps
Population growth makes biodiversity loss inevitable
Gaston 5 [Kevin J. Gaston Biodiversity and Macroecology Group, Department of Animal and Plant
Sciences, University of Sheffield. Progress in Physical Geography 29, 2 (2005) pp. 239–247. “Biodiversity
and extinction: species and people” http://www.epa.gov/ncer/biodiversity/pubs/ppg_vol29_239.pdf
//jweideman]
The human population is predicted to grow by 2 to 4 billion people by 2050 (United Nations, 2001). While it took
until about 1800 to attain a global population of I billion people, a medium projection is that it may take just 13 to 14
years to add another billion to the pres- ent total (Cohen, 2003). All else remaining equal, which it seldom does, a
number of pre- dictions would seem to follow from the work that has been conducted to date on the
rela- tionships between human densities and the numbers of native species, numbers or pro- portions of
threatened species, and the numbers or proportions of introduced species. First, the spatial scale at which
relationships between overall numbers of native species and human density become hump-shaped or at least gain marked negative phases
seems likely to increase, even when species numbers and human density are mapped at a low spa- tial resolution. Increased
human
densification will mean that the maintenance and conservation of tracts of natural or semi-natural
vegetation will become more difficult in areas of higher human density. Secondly, the numbers and proportions
of threatened species in different areas will tend to increase. McKee et al. (2003) have used existing
relationships between numbers of threatened species and numbers of people in different areas to
predict the consequences for biodiversity of continued increases in the human population. They found
that the num- ber of threatened bird and mammal species across 114 continental nations is expected to
increase in the average nation by 7% by 2020 and 14% by 2050, on the basis of human pop- ulation growth alone. Such aggregate estimates
provide no indication of precisely what this is likely to do for the overall propor- tion of species that are globally threatened with extinction, but
these increases can only serve to increase the 12% of bird species and the 23% of mammals currently listed as such (lUCN, 2003). Likewise,
the proportion of species that have become globally extinct will increase.
No Impact-Tech Solves
Tech solves the impact
Stossel 2007
John, Investigative reporter for Fox news, Environmental Alarmists Have It Backwards
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/04/how_about_economic_progress_da.html
Watching the media coverage, you'd
think that the earth was in imminent danger -- that human life itself was on
the verge of extinction. Technology is fingered as the perp. Nothing could be further from the truth. John Semmens of
Arizona's Laissez Faire Institute points out that Earth Day misses an important point. In the April issue of The Freeman magazine, Semmens says
the environmental movement overlooks how hospitable the earth has become -- thanks to technology. "The
environmental alarmists
have it backwards. If anything imperils the earth it is ignorant obstruction of science and progress. ... That
technology provides the best option for serving human wants and conserving the environment should
be evident in the progress made in environmental improvement in the United States. Virtually every
measure shows that pollution is headed downward and that nature is making a comeback." (Carbon dioxide
excepted, if it is really a pollutant.) Semmens describes his visit to historic Lexington and Concord in Massachusetts, an area "lush with trees
and greenery." It wasn't always that way. In 1775, the land was cleared so it could be farmed. Today, technology makes farmers so efficient that
only a fraction of the land is needed to produce much more food. As a result, "Massachusetts farmland has been allowed to revert back to
forest." Human ingenuity and technology not only raised living standards, but also restored environmental amenities. How about a day to
celebrate that?
No Impact-Acidification
No ocean acidification problem – it’s natural
Idso et al 2009
Sherwood, founder and former President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global
Change and currently serves as Chairman of the Center's board of directors, The Ocean Acidification
Fiction Volume 12, Number 22: 3 June 2009
There is considerable current concern that the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content is causing a
significant drop in the pH of the world's oceans in response to their absorption of a large fraction of each year's anthropogenic
CO2 emissions. It has been estimated, for example, that the globe's seawater has been acidified (actually made less basic) by about 0.1 pH unit
relative to what it was in pre-industrial times; and model calculations imply an additional 0.7-unit drop by the year 2300 (Caldeira and Wickett,
2003), which decline is hypothesized to cause great harm to calcifying marine life such as corals. But just how valid are these claims?
Whenever the results of theoretical calculations are proposed as the basis for a crisis of some kind or
other, it is always good to compare their predictions against what is known about the phenomenon in
the real world. In the case of oceanic pH, for example, Liu et al. (2009) write in an important new paper that "the history of ocean
pH variation during the current interglacial (Holocene) remains largely unknown," and that it "would
provide critical insights on the possible impact of acidification on marine ecosystems." Hence, they set about to
provide just such a context. Working with eighteen samples of fossil and modern Porites corals recovered from the South China Sea, the nine
researchers employed 14C dating using the liquid scintillation counting method, along with positive thermal ionization mass spectrometry to
generate high precision δ11B (boron) data, from which they reconstructed the paleo-pH record of the past 7000 years that is depicted in the
figure below. As can be seen from this figure, there
is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about the two
most recent pH values. They are neither the lowest of the record, nor is the decline rate that led to them
the greatest of the record. Hence, there is no compelling reason to believe they were influenced in any
way by the nearly 40% increase in the air's CO2 concentration that has occurred to date over the course of the Industrial
Revolution. As for the prior portion of the record, Liu et al. note that there is also "no correlation between the atmospheric CO2 concentration
record from Antarctica ice cores and δ11B-reconstructed paleo-pH over the mid-late Holocene up to the Industrial Revolution." Further
enlightenment comes from the earlier work of Pelejero et al. (2005), who developed a more refined history of seawater pH spanning the period
1708-1988 (depicted in the figure below), based on δ11B data obtained from a massive Porites coral from Flinders Reef in the western Coral
Sea of the southwestern Pacific. These researchers also found that "there
is no notable trend toward lower δ11B values."
Instead, they discovered that "the dominant feature of the coral δ11B record is a clear interdecadal
oscillation of pH, with δ11B values ranging between 23 and 25 per mil (7.9 and 8.2 pH units)," which they say "is synchronous
with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Going one step further, Pelejero et al. also compared their results with coral extension
and calcification rates obtained by Lough and Barnes (1997) over the same 1708-1988 time period; and as best we can determine from their
graphical representations of these two coral growth parameters, extension rates over the last 50 years of this period were about 12% greater
than they were over the first 50 years, while calcification rates were approximately 13% greater over the last 50 years. Most recently, Wei et al.
(2009) derived the pH history of Arlington Reef (off the north-east coast of Australia) that is depicted in the figure below. As can be seen there,
there was a ten-year pH minimum centered at about 1935 (which obviously was not CO2-induced) and a
shorter more variable minimum at the end of the record (which also was not CO2-induced); and apart from
these two non-CO2-related exceptions, the majority of the data once again fall within a band that exhibits no longterm trend, such as would be expected to have occurred if the gradual increase in atmospheric CO2
concentration since the inception of the Industrial Revolution were truly making the global ocean less
basic. In light of these several diverse and independent assessments of the two major aspects of the
ocean acidification hypothesis -- a CO2-induced decline in oceanic pH that leads to a concomitant decrease in coral growth rate -- it
would appear that the catastrophe conjured up by the world's climate alarmists is but a wonderful work
of fiction.
Seagrasses solve the impact – acidification refuge.
CO2 Science 2013
Seagrasses Enable Nearby Corals to Withstand Ocean Acidification, v16 n10
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V16/N10/B2.php
Background The authors state that although
many people expect future ocean acidification (OA) due to rising
atmospheric CO2 concentrations to reduce the calcification rates of marine organisms, they say we have little
understanding of how OA will manifest itself within dynamic, real-world systems, because, as they correctly note,
"natural CO2, alkalinity, and salinity gradients can significantly alter local carbonate chemistry, and thereby create a
range of susceptibility for different ecosystems to OA." What was done "To determine if photosynthetic CO2 uptake associated with seagrass
beds has the potential to create OA refugia," as they describe it, Manzello
et al. repeatedly measured carbonate chemistry
across an inshore-to-offshore gradient in the upper, middle and lower Florida Reef Tract over a two-year period. What was learned During
times of heightened oceanic vegetative productivity, the five U.S. researchers found "there is a net uptake of
total CO2 which increases aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) values on inshore patch reefs of the upper Florida Reef Tract," and they say
that "these waters can exhibit greater Ωarag than what has been modeled for the tropical surface ocean during preindustrial times, with mean
Ωarag values in spring equaling 4.69 ± 0.10." At the same time, however, they report that Ωarag values on offshore reefs "generally represent
oceanic carbonate chemistries consistent with present day tropical surface ocean conditions." What it means Manzello et al. hypothesize that
the pattern described above "is caused by the photosynthetic uptake of total CO2 mainly by seagrasses and, to
a lesser extent, macroalgae in the inshore waters of the Florida Reef Tract." And they therefore conclude that these inshore
reef habitats are "potential acidification refugia that are defined not only in a spatial sense, but also in time, coinciding with
seasonal productivity dynamics," which further implies that "coral reefs located within or immediately downstream of
seagrass beds may find refuge from ocean acidification." And in further support of this conclusion, they cite the work of
Palacios and Zimmerman (2007), which they describe as indicating that "seagrasses exposed to high-CO2 conditions for one
year had increased reproduction, rhizome biomass, and vegetative growth of new shoots, which could
represent a potential positive feedback to their ability to serve as ocean acidification refugia."
Adaptation will solve acidification
Knappenberger 10 (Chip Knappenberger is the assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute, and coordinates the scientific and outreach
activities for the Center. He has over 20 years of experience in climate research and public outreach. January 6, 2010. Ocean Acidification: Another Failing Scare Story from Master Resource.
http://www.masterresource.org/2010/01/ocean-acidification-another-failing-scare-story/ July 6, 2014.)
The folks over at the Science and Public Policy Institute have taken it upon themselves to look a bit more
closely into the ocean acidification story and see just what the scientific literature has to say about how
organisms are actually responding to changes in ocean pH rather than just talk about how they may
respond.¶ What SPPI finds is neither newsworthy nor catastrophic, simply that, as has always been the
case, the aquatic organisms of the world’s oceans are very adaptable and are able to respond to
environmental changes in such a way as to avoid large-scale detrimental impacts.¶ -
Rising CO2 can’t cause acidification – 4 warrants and history proves
SPPI 10 (The Science and Public Policy Institute provide research and educational materials dedicated to sound public policy based on sound science. Only through science and factual
information, separating reality from rhetoric, can legislators develop beneficial policies without unintended consequences that might threaten the life, liberty, and prosperity of the citizenry.
(SPPI). 01/05/10.
A New Propaganda Film by Natl. Resources Defense Council Fails the Acid Test of Real World Data from SPPI. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/acid_test.html July 6, 2014.)
First, because it has not done so before. During the Cambrian era, 550 million years ago, there ¶ was 20
times as much CO2 in the atmosphere as there is today: yet that is when the calcite ¶ corals first
achieved algal symbiosis. During the Jurassic era, 175 million years ago, there was ¶ again 20 times as
much CO2 as there is today: yet that is when the delicate aragonite corals first ¶ came into being. ¶ ¶
Secondly, ocean acidification, as a notion, suffers from the same problem of scale as “global ¶
warming”. Just as the doubling of CO2 concentration expected this century will scarcely change ¶ global
mean surface temperature because there is so little CO2 in the atmosphere in the first ¶ place, so it will
scarcely change the acid-base balance of the ocean, because there is already 70 ¶ times as much CO2 in
solution in the oceans as there is in the atmosphere. Even if all of the ¶ additional CO2 we emit were to
end up not in the atmosphere (where it might in theory cause a 4 ¶ ¶ very little warming) but in the ocean
(where it would cause none), the quantity of CO2 in the ¶ oceans would rise by little more than 1%, a
trivial and entirely harmless change. ¶ ¶ Thirdly, to imagine that CO2 causes “ocean acidification” is to
ignore the elementary chemistry ¶ of bicarbonate ions. Quantitatively, CO2 is only the seventh-largest of
the substances in the ¶ oceans that could in theory alter the acid-base balance, so that in any event its
effect on that ¶ balance would be minuscule. Qualitatively, however, CO2 is different from all the other
¶ substances in that it acts as the buffering mechanism for all of them, so that it does not itself ¶ alter
the acid-base balance of the oceans at all. ¶ ¶ Fourthly, as Professor Ian Plimer points out in his excellent
book Heaven and Earth (Quartet, ¶ London, 2009), the oceans slosh around over vast acreages of rock,
and rocks are pronouncedly ¶ alkaline. Seen in a geological perspective, therefore, acidification of the
oceans is impossible.
SQ data solves acidification
Status quo efforts solve ocean acid data
OAP 12 [NOAA ocean acidification program. March 12, DATA COLLECTION AND MANAGEMENT
http://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/AreasofFocus/DataCollectionandManagement.aspx//jweideman]
OAP scientists collect a variety of data to understand changing ocean chemistry and its impacts on
marine organisms and ecosystems. The National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) serves as the NOAA
Ocean Acidification data management focal point through its Ocean Acidification Data Stewardship
(OADS) project. OA data will be archived at and available from an ocean acidification data stewardship
system at NODC. Ocean acidification data can generally be classified as either physio-chemical or biological. Physio-chemical parameters include, among
others, pCO2 (measurement of carbon dioxide gas both in the air and dissolved in seawater), pH, total alkalinity, total inorganic carbon, temperature, salinity,
dissolved oxygen and current speed. Physio-chemical
data from the field are collected either by remote observing
methods (buoys, gliders) or through direct measurement from ships (hydrographic cruises or volunteer
observing ships). Biological data from the field can be collected in similar ways, either by remote
collection techniques or through direct measurement by scientists. For example, data about primary
production (photosynthesizing activity) can be collected from buoys through measurement of
chlorophyll a, nutrient levels and oxygen. Biologists have many techniques for collecting biological data
in the field, both from ships and on shorelines. These collections can be instantaneous or from gear placed to collect organisms over time for later retrieval
and analysis. During laboratory experiments on marine organisms, scientists can measure calcification rates, shell growth, behavior, otolith growth (for fish),
metabolic rate, reproduction, among others parameters. Original datasets from all OAP research and the papers which analyze the data will be available through
the OA Program and NODC. The
National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) is serving as the NOAA OA data
management focal point by providing online data discovery, access to NODC-hosted and distributed
data sources, and long-term archival for a diverse range of OA data. The OAP and NODC will build a collaborative
relationship with shared responsibilities among scientists, data managers, and NODC staff towards the
implementation of an OA data stewardship system (OADS). CURRENT EFFORTS In March 2012, the
Ocean Acidification Program in collaboration with the University of Washington held an ocean
acidification data management workshop in Seattle, WA which brought together a wide array of
scientists and data managers from across US. Given that successful and integrated OA data management
requires looking beyond just the NOAA program, we convened researchers and program managers from
across the spectrum of US funded OA research. Representatives from NOAA, NSF, DOE, USGS and NASA
attended as did academic researchers from a range of institutions. The workshop generated both a
Declaration of Data Interdependence and a longer Draft Integrated Data Management Plan.
No Impact-Coral Reefs
Coral Reef’s Resilient as long as there is some Biodiversity—how much doesn’t matter
Grimsditch and Salm 06 (Gabriel D Grimsditch holds the post of Programme Officer for oceans and climate change for the UNEP Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
Branch in Nairobi, Kenya. Before joining UNEP, Gabriel worked for the IUCN Global Marine Programme where he coordinated the IUCN Climate Change and Coral Reefs Working Group. Rod
Salm has his dissertation in marine ecology. He has 35 years experience in international marine conservation and ecotourism. 2006. Coral Reef Resilience and Resistance to Bleaching from The
World Conservation Union. http://icriforum.org/sites/default/files/2006-042.pdf July 6, 2014)
The main ecological factor that affects coral reef ¶ resilience to bleaching is a balanced biological and ¶
functional diversity (see Glossary) within the coral ¶ reef. It is essential to have a balanced ecological ¶
community with sufficient species interactions ¶ for coral reefs to recover from disturbances, and ¶ this
applies not only to bleaching but to other ¶ disturbances as well (Nyström and Folke, 2001).¶ An
especially important functional group (see ¶ Glossary) for coral reef resilience is grazing animals,
comprising herbivorous fish and sea¶ urchins, among others. They enhance coral reef¶ resilience by
preventing phase shifts from coral-¶ dominated reefs to algal-dominated reefs by ¶ keeping algal growth
in check and allowing the¶ settlement of slower-growing coral recruits rather¶ than faster-growing algae.
Their importance is¶ highlighted in a classic example from Jamaica, ¶ where the overfishing of predators
and competitors ¶ (herbivorous fish) of the black-spined sea ¶ urchin Diadema antillarum led to an
explosion ¶ in its population, and thus to a reduction of the ¶ diversity within the herbivorous functional
group. ¶ Consequently, grazing by D. antillarum became ¶ the primary mechanism for algal control and
crucial ¶ to coral reef recovery after Hurricane Allen in 1981. ¶ However, in 1983-1984, a pathogen killed
off 95-¶ 99% of its population and enabled a phase shift ¶ as macroalgae out-competed coral. The extent
to ¶ which this phase shift is irreversible is still unclear ¶ (Nyström et al, 2000).
Adaptation and Resilience solve the coral reef scenario
Griffin 13 (Catherine Griffin is an environmental and science journalist. 10/30/13. Coral Reefs Resist Climate Change with Genetic Adaptations from Science World Report.
http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/10579/20131030/coral-reefs-resist-climate-change-genetic-adaptations.htm July 9, 2014)
As our climate changes, coral reefs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to degradation. Now, though,
scientists have discovered that corals may be more resilient than they thought. It turns out that coral
reefs may be able to adapt to moderate climate warming, spelling new hope for those that hope to
conserve these remarkable ecosystems.¶ Coral reefs are some of the most biodiverse areas in our
oceans. They host thousands of species and act as nurseries for larger fish. Yet as temperatures warm,
corals suffer from a process known as coral "bleaching." This occurs when reef-building corals eject
algae living inside their tissues. Since these algae supply the coral with most of its food, bleaching can be
fatal and leave vast swathes of a reef lifeless after one of these events.¶ Fortunately, though, it seems
that the corals are adaptive. Scientists have discovered that corals possess a range of adaptations that
can actually counteract the effects of warming. In order to come to these conclusions, though, the
scientists used global sea surface temperature output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model-2 for
the pre-industrial period through 2100. This allowed them to project rates of coral bleaching. The initial
results seemed to show that past temperature increases should have bleached reefs more often. The
fact that they didn't seemed to indicate that corals are adapting.
Overfishing
Advantage Defense
1NC Regs Can’t Solve
Literally no new regulations can solve overfishing- this card wrecks the advantage
Bratspies 09 (Rebecca M. Bratspies, Professor of Law at the CUNY School of Law in New York, has taught environmental law, Natural
Resources Law, International Environmental Law, Property, Administrative Law, and Lawyering, J.D. cum laude from the University of
Pennsylvania Law School and a B.A. in Biology from Wesleyan University “Why the Free Market Can't Fix Overfishing”,
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2009/08/why-the-free-market-cant-fix-overfishing/22524/, 8/9/09, SM)
Catch shares" are the latest fix-all solution to the world's overfishing crisis, and that's too bad. The idea was
recently promoted by Gregg Easterbrook here in The Atlantic, and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco has committed her agency to
"transitioning to catch shares as a solution to overfishing. Although
it's tempting to think that property rights will
transform fishing into an industry focused on long-term sustainability, catch-shares are really just a retread of
the same "markets will fix everything" thinking that has been thoroughly discredited. Catch-shares allocate portions
of the total catch within a fishery and give fishers a property-like right to a share of the fish. (These permits are freely tradable on the open
market.) The
alternative is open-access, in which anyone may catch fish until the total quota for the fishery
is reached. Not surprisingly, open-access fisheries often involve a mad scramble to capture as large a share of
fish as quickly as possible, the so-called "fisherman's dilemma." Catch-shares remove the incentive to catch all the
fish immediately, but the real management challenge is deciding how many fish should be caught in the first
place. Regardless of whether a fishery is open-access or allocates catch-shares, it is only sustainable if the total level of
fishing is low enough to allow fish populations to regenerate. Unfortunately, total catch limits are often
short-sighted. While setting the total allowable catch is theoretically a scientific decision, fishery managers
face intense pressure to interpret every ambiguity in favor of allowing more, rather than less fishing. Sustainable levels of
fishing fluctuate with environmental conditions: one year it might be fine to catch 100 tons of fish, while the next
year even 10 tons might be too much. But the fishing industry depends on predictable levels of catch.
Uncertainties inherent to estimating the "right" level of fishing makes it hard for managers to defend
decisions to reduce fishing. That brings us to the real problem with fisheries: overcapacity. There are simply too
many boats chasing too few fish . The catch-share approach tries to solve this problem by creating a permit
thinking is that the permits will consolidate in the hands of "rational and efficient"
producers who will voluntarily forego using a portion of their shares. That won't happen. The recent
financial crisis ought to give anyone pause about the claim that markets inherently promote choices that
are in everyone's long-term best interest . Regulators have sharply defined territorial jurisdictions, but fish
trading market. The
do not cooperate by staying in one place . Fish move between countries' Exclusive Economic Zones
(waters under the effective control of a coastal state) and
state's rigorously
under
the
set catch limits
the high seas. Boats on the high seas can undermine
(Spain and Canada almost went to war over this in the 1990s).
control of a single state,
most
a coastal
Even when a fishery is
governments don't have the capacity to make sure each boat
takes only its allotted catch-share. Catch-shares also fail to address bycatch , the dirty little secret of the fishing
industry. By most estimates, at least 40 percent of every catch is discarded as bycatch--fish other than the target
species, including at least half a million endangered marine mammals and an unknown number of endangered sea turtles. Catch-shares
will exacerbate this problem by creating a powerful incentive for fishing boats to discard not only
unwanted or uncommercial fish, but also any fish potentially subject to someone else's share.
Moreover, privatizing the ocean through catch-shares has troubling social justice implications. Catch-shares
are typically awarded to boat owners on the basis of fishing capacity, rather than to each fisher on a per capita basis.
Those with big boats benefit richly, but their workers are shut out of any ownership stake. This is the
same "give to the rich" dynamic that distorts privatization schemes around the world.
2NC Can’t solve
Regulations on overfishing are ineffective
Boon 08 (Kristen E. Boon, Director of International Programs, specializes in public international law and international organization,
Doctorate in law from Columbia Law School, a J.D. from New York University School of Law, M.A. in Political Science from McGill University
“OVERFISHING OF BLUEFIN TUNA: INCENTIVIZING INCLUSIVE SOLUTIONS”
http://www.louisvillelawreview.org/sites/louisvillelawreview.org/files/pdfs/printcontent/52/1/Boon.pdf, 2008)
While my proposals would not preclude a property rights approach, this Article proceeded on the assumption that introducing
property
rights on the high seas would not be sufficient to address problems of scarcity or to inform institutional design. A
final word justifying this presumption is in order. Advocates of property rights suggest that they would serve as a
corrective force for the negative impacts of overfishing. Essentially, a property rights solution would involve the
creation of a market for individual transferable quotas (ITQs). After a TAC has been set, either an RFMO like ICCAT could auction off
quotas to interested rights holders, including corporations and states, or rights could be granted to individual fishermen
directly who could then swap and sell their rights to others. Property rights to natural resources have never
been introduced on the high seas, largely due to the difficulties of regulating species outside of national
jurisdictions. When fisheries fall within one nation's enforcement jurisdiction, a public authority can institute a system of property rights
based on catch or fishing effort. Thus a state can create, allocate, and enforce the allocation of property rights to fish on the basis of ITQs. This
might involve setting a limit on the amount of fish that could be caught, and then auctioning off the fishing rights to those who want to
purchase them. On
the high seas, however, there is much more competition for the resource, and the role of
property rights becomes considerably more complex. Moreover, the costs of implementing, maintaining, and
enforcing a property rights solution becomes higher as the competition for resources increases.
Can’t solve overfishing- Other nations won’t co-operate
McDermott 10 (Mat McDermott, Writer about resource consumption for Treehugger, Masters from New York University’s Center for
global affairs on environmental and energy policy “How Bad Is Overfishing & What Can We Do To Stop It?”, http://www.treehugger.com/greenfood/how-bad-is-overfishing-what-can-we-do-to-stop-it.html, August 16th 2010, Date Accessed: 7/3/14, SM)
Enforcement is Key Though... The crucial variable in all this is enforcement. Though nations can control territorial waters--if they
choose to, Libya for example actively turns a blind eye to overfishing in its waters, as do a number of other
nations--in the open ocean things become much more difficult. Even with scientifically determined quotas, marine reserves and
catch share systems in place, if the rules are not enforced, it all falls apart. Going back to the bluefin example, if the
quota is 15,000 tons a year but the actual take, due to utter lack of enforcement, is 60,000 tons, you simply can't manage the
fishery well. And when, as is the case with certain fisheries, you have organized crime syndicates involved, it all gets that much more
complicated.
Cant solve overfishing- Other countries won’t cooperate
The House Of Ocean 13 (The House of ocean, “Big fishing nations that won’t stop overfishing”,
http://houseofocean.org/2013/12/13/big-fishing-nations-that-wont-stop-overfishing/, 12/13/13 SM)
A recent Guardian article exposes some of the figures behind industrial tuna fishing in the pacific. The article says that the
US, China,
South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan are responsible for 80% of bigeye tuna caught each year. The
remaining 20% is captured by vessels flagged to smaller fishing nations. Some of the smallest nations depend on their fisheries
for basic survival. In 2012, 2.6m tonnes of tuna were extracted from the Pacific – 60% of the global total. Scientists are in
agreement that tuna is being overfished at an alarming rate. Some species are practically on the brink, with bluefin tuna
populations being currently just 4% of what they were before industrial fishing commenced. Yet, the organisation that has been
entrusted by the international community to be the steward of tuna fisheries in the Pacific ocean, the Western and Central
Pacific Fisheries Commission, has failed to protect the fish for yet another year. In spite of clear scientific advice
regarding the need to reduce tuna quotas, the large fishing nations
that currently haul the most,
have
point-blank
refused to reduce their quota . Small Pacific nations have pointlessly warned of the consequences of overfishing – the big boys
won’t budge.
Unilateral fishing policies fail
Schlick 09 (Katharina Schlick, “Fishery agreements in view of the South China Sea Conflict: A regional cooperative approach to maritime
resource conflicts and territorial disputes”, http://www.victoria.ac.nz/chinaresearchcentre/publications/papers/19-katharina-schlick.pdf, 2009
SM)
Overexploitation of marine living resources is a problem of both science and governance (Zha 2001: 577). As the
example of Chinese domestic efforts in fisheries management show, many unilateral measures stay
inefficient in view of the South China Sea ecosystem as a whole. On the one hand institutional weakness and poor
implementation of regulations at the domestic level impairs any regional effort for sustainable resource
management, on the other hand, diverging national, regional and international interests lead to different objectives and outcomes. The
controversies over jurisdictional boundaries in many parts of the South China Sea and consequentially the absence of property rights over
maritime living resources has created the image of an open access resource pool. In this situation, no
one takes efforts to preserve
the resource at a sustainable level as others will free-ride and enjoy the benefits from the resources at the
expense of the others that put restrictions on their own use of the resource. The consequence is that the resource will
gradually be overexploited and in view of fisheries, face danger of extinction. Given the migrator nature of many
species of the sea, no single country would be able to manage or conserve these fish stocks (Wang 2001: 539-540).
Conservation and management issues within the territorial waters and the high sea areas must therefore be compatible with each other.
Nutall Goes neg- Can’t solve overfishing
Nutall 06 (Nick Nuttall, Head of Media Services, United Nations Environment Program, “Overfishing: a threat to marine biodiversity”,
http://www.un.org/events/tenstories/06/story.asp?storyID=800, 2006 ,SM)
According to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate, over 70% of the world’s fish species are either fully exploited or depleted. The
dramatic increase of destructive fishing techniques worldwide destroys marine mammals and entire ecosystems. FAO
reports that
illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing worldwide appears to be increasing as fishermen seek to avoid
stricter rules in many places in response to shrinking catches and declining fish stocks. Few, if any, developing countries and only a
limited number of developed ones are on track to put into effect by this year the International Plan of Action to Prevent,
Deter and Eliminate Unreported and Unregulated Fishing. Despite that fact that each region has its Regional
Sea Conventions, and some 108 governments and the European Commission have adopted the UNEP Global
Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land based Activities, oceans are
cleared at twice the rate of forests.
AT: Food prices I/L
Food prices ARE increasing but because of biofuels
Wahlberg 08 (Katarina Wahlberg, Advisor on Social and Economic Policy Program Coordinator, M.A. degree in political science from the
University of Stockholm, “Between Soaring Food Prices and Food Aid Shortage”
https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/217/46194.html, March 3rd 2008, SM)
Food prices have soared because agricultural production has not kept up with the rising demand of cereals
for food consumption, cattle feeding and biofuel production. For the first time in decades, worldwide scarcity of food is
becoming a problem. Global cereal stocks are falling rapidly. Some predict that US wheat stocks will reach a 60-year low in 2008.
Population growth in poor countries is boosting the grain demand for food consumption. But cereal demand for the
feeding of cattle is increasing even more rapidly as consumers in both rich countries and fast growing economies are eating more dairy and
meat. The most
important factor behind the sudden spike in food prices, however, is the rapidly growing
demand for biofuels, particularly in the EU and the US. Of total corn production, 12% is used to make biofuel, and
that share is growing fast. Concerns about global climate change and soaring energy prices have boosted demand
for biofuels. Until recently, few voices critical of biofuels were heard, but now an increasing number of policy makers and analysts strongly
oppose converting food into fuel. In addition to directly threatening food security, there are alarming examples of how biofuel production
causes environmental harm and speeds up global warming. US ethanol production uses large amounts of fuel, fertilizer, pesticides and water
and most analysts consider its environmental impact quite negative. And in Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil, companies have slashed thousands
of hectares of rain forests to cultivate palm oil or sugarcane for biofuel production. According
to the Food and Agricultural Organization
in 2007. But, prices will remain high or grow
even further in the coming years, as production is not growing fast enough to keep up with rising demand.
Production is increasing mainly in the US, the EU, China and India. Not counting China and India, cereal production in poor countries
decreased, due in part to climate change related emergencies such as droughts and floods. In addition to a tight supply and
demand situation, soaring petroleum prices contribute to higher food prices by raising costs of
transportation, fertilizers, and fuel for farm machinery. Moreover, financial investors speculating in commodity prices
(FAO), world production of cereal, vegetables, fruit, meat and dairy increased
aggravate prices and increase volatility in the market.
Impact Defense
Impact Defense
Squo solves overfishing
NOAA 11 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “The Road to End Overfishing: 35 Years of Magnuson Act”,
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/stories/2011/20110411roadendoverfishing.htm, 2011)
I want to acknowledge and highlight the 35 th anniversary of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. Simply called
“the Magnuson Act”, this law, its regional framework and goal of sustainability, has proven to be a visionary force in natural resource
management - both domestically and internationally. The Magnuson Act is, and will continue to be a key driver for NOAA as we deliver on our
nation’s commitment to ocean stewardship, sustainable fisheries, and healthy marine ecosystems Because of the Magnuson Act, the
U.S. is
on track to end overfishing in federally-managed fisheries, rebuild stocks, and ensure conservation and
sustainable use of our ocean resources. Fisheries harvested in the United States are scientifically monitored,
regionally managed and legally enforced under 10 strict national standards of sustainability. This anniversary year
marks a critical turning point in the Act’s history. By the end of 2011, we are on track to have an annual catch limit
and accountability measures in place for all 528 federally-managed fish stocks and complexes. The dynamic,
science-based management process envisioned by Congress is now in place, the rebuilding of our fisheries is underway, and we are beginning
to see real benefits for fishermen, fishing communities and our commercial and recreational fishing industries.
Squo solves overfishing- many species are recovering
The Economist 08 (The economist, “Grabbing it all”, http://www.economist.com/node/12798494, December 30
th
2008)
A variety of remedies have been tried, usually in combination. Thus regulations
have been issued about the size and type of fish
to be caught, the mesh of nets to be used, the number of days a month that boats may go to sea, the
permissible weight of their catch and so on. In some countries fishermen are offered inducements to give up fishing
altogether. Those that continue are, at least in theory, subject to monitoring both at sea and in port. Large areas are
sometimes closed to fishing, to allow stocks to recover. Others have been designated as marine reserves akin to national parks. And some of
the technology that fishermen use to find their prey is now used by inspectors to monitor the whereabouts of
the hunters themselves. Most of these measures have helped, as the recovery of stocks in various places has shown.
Striped bass and North Atlantic swordfish have returned along America's East Coast, for instance. Halibut have
made a comeback in Alaska. Haddock, if not cod, have begun to recover in Georges Bank off Maine. And herring come and go
off the coasts of Scotland. Those who doubt the value of government intervention have only to look at the waters off Somalia, a country that
has been devoid of any government worth the name since 1991. The ensuing free-for-all has devastated the coastal stocks, ruining the
livelihoods of local fishermen and encouraging them, it seems, to take up piracy instead.
Climate change proves marine bioD are resilient
Taylor 10 (James M. Taylor is a senior fellow of The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment and Climate News, “Ocean
Acidification Scare Pushed at Copenhagen,”
http://www.heartland.org/publications/environment%20climate/article/26815/Ocean_Acidification_Scare_Pushed_at_Copenhagen.html, Feb
10)
With global temperatures continuing their decade-long decline and United Nationssponsored global warming talks falling apart in Copenhagen, alarmists at the U.N. talks
spent considerable time claiming carbon dioxide emissions will cause catastrophic ocean
acidification, regardless of whether temperatures rise. The latest scientific data, however,
show no such catastrophe is likely to occur. Food Supply Risk Claimed The United Kingdom’s
environment secretary, Hilary Benn, initiated the Copenhagen ocean scare with a
high-profile speech and numerous media interviews claiming ocean acidification
threatens the world’s food supply. “The fact is our seas absorb CO2. They absorb about a
quarter of the total that we produce, but it is making our seas more acidic,” said Benn
in his speech. “If this continues as a problem, then it can affect the one billion people
who depend on fish as their principle source of protein, and we have to feed another
2½ to 3 billion people over the next 40 to 50 years.” Benn’s claim of oceans becoming “more
acidic” is misleading, however. Water with a pH of 7.0 is considered neutral. pH values lower than
7.0 are considered acidic, while those higher than 7.0 are considered alkaline. The world’s
oceans have a pH of 8.1, making them alkaline, not acidic. Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations
would make the oceans less alkaline but not acidic. Since human industrial activity first began
emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere a little more than 200 years ago, the pH of
the oceans has fallen merely 0.1, from 8.2 to 8.1. Following Benn’s December 14 speech
and public relations efforts, most of the world’s major media outlets produced stories
claiming ocean acidification is threatening the world’s marine life. An Associated Press
headline, for example, went so far as to call ocean acidification the “evil twin” of
climate change. Studies Show CO2 Benefits Numerous recent scientific studies show
higher carbon dioxide levels in the world’s oceans have the same beneficial effect on marine life as
higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have on terrestrial plant life. In a 2005 study published in
the Journal of Geophysical Research, scientists examined trends in chlorophyll concentrations,
critical building blocks in the oceanic food chain. The French and American scientists
reported “an overall increase of the world ocean average chlorophyll concentration by
about 22 percent” during the prior two decades of increasing carbon dioxide
concentrations. In a 2006 study published in Global Change Biology, scientists
observed higher CO2 levels are correlated with better growth conditions for oceanic
life. The highest CO2 concentrations produced “higher growth rates and biomass yields” than the
lower CO2 conditions. Higher CO2 levels may well fuel “subsequent primary production,
phytoplankton blooms, and sustaining oceanic food-webs,” the study concluded. Ocean Life
‘Surprisingly Resilient’ In a 2008 study published in Biogeosciences, scientists subjected marine
organisms to varying concentrations of CO2, including abrupt changes of CO2 concentration. The
ecosystems were “surprisingly resilient” to changes in atmospheric CO2, and “the ecosystem
composition, bacterial and phytoplankton abundances and productivity, grazing rates
and total grazer abundance and reproduction were not significantly affected by CO2induced effects.” In a 2009 study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, scientists reported, “Sea star growth and feeding rates increased with water
temperature from 5ºC to 21ºC. A doubling of current [CO2] also increased growth
rates both with and without a concurrent temperature increase from 12ºC to 15ºC.”
Another False CO2 Scare “Far too many predictions of CO2-induced catastrophes are treated by
alarmists as sure to occur, when real-world observations show these doomsday scenarios to be highly
unlikely or even virtual impossibilities ,” said Craig Idso, Ph.D., author of the 2009 book CO2,
Global Warming and Coral Reefs. “The phenomenon of CO2-induced ocean
acidification appears to be no different.
Science Leadership
Tech Leadership High
U.S. manufacturing dominates the market, manufacturing innovation solves tech
output
NIST 2009 National Institute of Standards and Technology, measurement standards laboratory,
government agency, 2009, “The Facts About Modern Manufacturing”,
http://www.nist.gov/mep/upload/FINAL_NAM_REPORT_PAGES.pdf
The 8th edition of the Facts gives a snapshot of the state of U.S. manufacturing, and exhibits its strengths and challenges. The Facts clearly show
that manufacturing
continues to play a vital role in the U.S. economy. This edition illustrates that the
quantity of manufactured goods produced in the United States has kept pace with overall economic
growth since 1947, as both GDP and manufacturing have grown by about seven times (Figure 2). The United
States still has the largest manufacturing sector in the world, and its market share (around 20 percent)
has held steady for 30 years (Figure 131. One in six private sector jobs is still in or directly tied to
manufacturing (Figure 8). Moreover, productivity growth is higher in manufacturing than in other
sectors of the economy (Figure 25). Due largely to outstanding productivity growth, the prices of
manufactured goods have declined since 1995 in contrast to inflation in most other sectors, with the
result that manufacturers are contributing to a higher standard of living for U.S. consumers (Figure 12).
Manufacturing still pays premium wages and benefits, and supports much more economic activity per
dollar of production than other sectors (Figure 9). Another major indicator of the importance of
manufacturing to the strength of the economy is its key role in driving innovation and technology. These
are crucial components of a productivity-driven, global competitiveness agenda, and also help explain the steady rise in our standard of living.
U.S. manufacturing accounts for 35 percent of value added in all of the world's high technology
production, and enjoys a trade surplus in revenues from royalties from production processes and
technology. U.S. inventors still account for more than one- half of all patents granted in the United
States (Figure 26), and the nation outpaces its rivals in terms of industrial research and development. Technology has aided U.S.
manufacturers to use less energy per unit or dollar of production (Figure 30) and to lead all other sectors in reducing C02 emissions in the last
two decades (Figure 29). Finally, the
technology and advanced processes developed in manufacturing
consistently spill over into productivity growth in the service and agriculture sectors. For this reason, it is
important to consider innovation in terms of processes as well as technologies.
Tech leadership inevitable – solves the advantage
Zakaria 2009 Fareed Zakaria, editor of Foreign Affairs, editor of Newsweek International, host of
CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, 11/14/09, Newsweek, "Can America Still Innovate?",
http://www.newsweek.com/id/222836
Government funding of basic research has been astonishingly productive. Over the past five decades it has led to
the development of the Internet, lasers, global positioning satellites, magnetic resonance imaging, DNA sequencing,
and hundreds of other technologies. Even when government was not the inventor, it was often the facilitator. One example:
semiconductors. As a study by the Breakthrough Institute notes, after the microchip was invented in 1958 by an engineer at Texas Instruments,
"the federal government bought virtually every microchip firms could produce." This was particularly true of the
Air Force, which needed chips to guide the new Minuteman II missiles, and NASA, which required advanced chips for the on-board guidance
computers on its Saturn rockets. "NASA
bought so many [microchips] that manufacturers were able to achieve
huge improvements in the production process—so much so, in fact, that the price of the Apollo
microchip fell from $1,000 per unit to between $20 and $30 per unit in the span of a couple years."
No Impact-Soft Power
Soft power doesn’t solve — everything turns it
Quinn 2011 Adam Quinn, Lecturer in International Studies at the University of Birmingham, previously
worked at the University of Leicester and the University of Westminster, focuses on the role of national
history and ideology in shaping US grand strategy, “The art of declining politely: Obama’s prudent
presidency and the waning of American power”, International Affairs 87:4 (2011) 803–824
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/87_4quinn.pdf
Nevertheless, this qualification demands two further qualifications of its own. The first is that if
we consider ‘soft power’ as a national
attribute then it is difficult to separate it with confidence from the economic and military dimensions of
power. Is it really likely that America’s ideological and cultural influence will endure undiminished in the absence of the platform of military and economic
primacy upon which it has been constructed? It may be overstatement to suggest that, borrowing Marxist terminology, hard power represents the ‘base’ and soft
power mere ‘superstructure’. But one could plausibly argue that even
America’s non-coercive power and political appeal are
inextricably entwined with the status conferred upon it by possession of a preponderance of material
resources. While vestigial soft power may delay or mitigate the consequences of relative material
decline, it is surely unrealistic to expect it to override them such as to allow the US to continue to
exercise the same influence in a multipolar or non-polar world as it did in a unipolar one.
No Impact-Hegemony
Hegemony fails – policy has shifted from helping other nations to focusing on
America’s domestic interests – increasing wealth, military power and influence don’t
solve
Kagan 5/26 Robert Kagan, PhD in American History, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a
member of the Council on Foreign Relations, 5/26/14, “Superpowers don’t get to retire”,
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117859/allure-normalcy-what-america-still-owes-world
Almost 70 years ago, a new world order was born from the rubble of World War II, built by and around
the power of the United States. Today that world order shows signs of cracking, and perhaps even
collapsing. The Russia-Ukraine and Syria crises, and the world’s tepid response, the general upheaval in
the greater Middle East and North Africa, the growing nationalist and great-power tensions in East Asia,
the worldwide advance of autocracy and retreat of democracy—taken individually, these problems are neither
unprecedented nor unmanageable. But collectively they are a sign that something is changing, and perhaps more
quickly than we may imagine. They may signal a transition into a different world order or into a world
disorder of a kind not seen since the 1930s. If a breakdown in the world order that America made is
occurring, it is not because America’s power is declining—America’s wealth, power, and potential
influence remain adequate to meet the present challenges. It is not because the world has become
more complex and intractable—the world has always been complex and intractable. And it is not simply
war-weariness. Strangely enough, it is an intellectual problem, a question of identity and purpose. Many
Americans and their political leaders in both parties, including President Obama, have either forgotten or
rejected the assumptions that undergirded American foreign policy for the past seven decades. In particular,
American foreign policy may be moving away from the sense of global responsibility that equated
American interests with the interests of many others around the world and back toward the defense of
narrower, more parochial national interests. This is sometimes called “isolationism,” but that is not the right word.
It may be more correctly described as a search for normalcy. At the core of American unease is a desire
to shed the unusual burdens of responsibility that previous generations of Americans took on in World
War II and throughout the cold war and to return to being a more normal kind of nation, more attuned to its
own needs and less to those of the wider world. If this is indeed what a majority of Americans seek today, then the current period of
retrenchment will not be a temporary pause before an inevitable return to global activism. It will mark a
new phase in the evolution of America’s foreign policy. And because America’s role in shaping the world
order has been so unusually powerful and pervasive, it will also begin a new phase in the international
system, one that promises not to be marginally different but radically different from what we have
known these past 70 years. Unless Americans can be led back to an understanding of their enlightened self-interest, to see again how
their fate is entangled with that of the world, then the prospects for a peaceful twenty-first century in which
Americans and American principles can thrive will be bleak.
S&T Add on Neg
S&T policy is effective now – US commitments and they’re legally binding
Dolan 2012 Bridget M. Dolan PhD, Research Scholar for the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, "Science and Technology Agreements as Tools for Science Diplomacy: A U.S. Case Study," Science &
Diplomacy, Vol. 1, No. 4 (December 2012). http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/science-andtechnology-agreements-tools-for- science-diplomacy.
A Formal and Legally Binding Agreement International
agreements to promote cooperation in scientific research
and development can be bilateral or multilateral, government-wide or at the level of individual technical
agencies (e.g., the National Science Foundation or the National Institutes of Health). The focus of this paper is on bilateral, government-wide
agreements, also referred to as umbrella agreements, framework agreements, or simply S&T agreements. Scientific cooperation
between the United States and other countries is undertaken using a variety of arrangements, from
informal scientist-to-scientist collaborations to cooperation between research institutions to formal
agreements between technical agencies. While S&T agreements are not necessary for these types of
interactions, other nations often seek S&T agreements with the United States because they carry the
weight of being legally binding and having been negotiated on behalf of the U.S. government. These
agreements endeavor to establish a framework to foster international science collaboration while
protecting intellectual property, establishing benefit sharing, and preventing taxation of research
equipment. The contents of an S&T agreement usually include common features such as types of cooperative activities and ways to
encourage access to facilities and personnel, as well as clarification that some information or equipment—such as those requiring protection
for national security reasons—are not covered under the agreement. There
are three areas where the agreement text
often varies: (1) the preamble, which is not legally binding and is often used to highlight the public motivations behind the agreement; (2)
the intellectual property rights annex, which delineates how the parties share and exploit intellectual
property generated; and (3) the implementation plan, including whether to establish a joint committee that would meet regularly to
review execution of the agreement.
They can’t solve – funding
Brown and Sarewitz 1998 George Brown Jr., former House representative, Daniel Sarewitz, CoDirector, Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes Associate Director, Fall 1998, Science and
Technology, Volume 15, Issue 1, “U.S. failure in international scientific cooperation”,
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/Issues-in-Science-Technology/53435944.html
In August 1991, we traveled to Mexico to meet with policymakers and scientists about the
establishment of a United States-Mexico science foundation devoted to supporting joint research on
problems of mutual interest. We encountered enthusiasm and vision at every level, including an
informal commitment by the Minister of Finance to match any U.S. contribution up to $20 million. At
about this time, our article "Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into Research" (Issues, Fall 1991) sought
to highlight three issues: 1) the pressing need for scientific partnerships between the United States and
industrializing nations, 2) the mechanism of bilateral or multilateral foundations for funding such
partnerships, and 3) the device of debt swaps for allowing debtor nations with limited foreign currency
reserves to act as full partners in joint research ventures. We returned from our visit to Mexico flush
with optimism about moving forward on all three fronts. Results, overall, have been disappointing. We
had hoped that the debt-for-science concept would be adopted by philanthropic organizations and
universities as a way to leverage the most bang for the research buck. This has not taken place. The
complexity of negotiating debt swaps and the changing dynamics of the international economy may be
inhibiting factors. But much more significant, in our view, is a general unwillingness in this nation to
pursue substantive international scientific cooperation with industrializing and developing nations.
Although the National Science Foundation and other agencies do fund U.S. scientists conducting
research in the industrializing and developing world, this work does not support broader partnerships
aimed at shared goals. Such partnerships can foster the local technological capacities that underlie
economic growth and environmental stewardship; we also view them as key to successfully addressing a
range of mutual problems, including transborder pollution, emerging diseases, and global climate
change. Yet there is a conspicuous lack of attention to this approach at all levels of the administration;
most important, the State Department continues to view scientific cooperation as a question of nothing
more than diplomatic process. Incredibly, through 1995 (the latest year for which data are available) the
United States has negotiated more than 800 bilateral and multilateral science and technology
agreements (up from 668 in 1991), even though virtually none of these are backed by funding
commitments. Nor is there any coordination among agencies regarding goals, implementation,
redundancy, or follow-up. A report by the RAND Corporation, "International Cooperation in Research
and Development," found little correlation between international agreements and actual research
projects. Moreover, although there are few indications that these agreements have led to significant
scientific partnerships with industrializing and developing nations, there is plenty of evidence that they
support a healthy bureaucratic infrastructure in the U.S. government. We cannot help but think that a
portion of the funds devoted to negotiating new agreements and maintaining existing ones might be
better spent on cooperative science.
No warming and not anthropogenic
Ferrara, 2012 (Peter, Director of Entitlement and Budget Policy for the Heartland Institute, Senior Advisor for Entitlement Reform and
Budget Policy at the National Tax Limitation Foundation, General Counsel for the American Civil Rights Union, and Senior Fellow at the National
Center for Policy Analysis, served in the White House Office of Policy Development, graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School ,
5/31/2012, "Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling," http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/05/31/sorry-globalwarming-alarmists-the-earth-is-cooling/)
Climate change itself is already in the process of definitively rebutting climate alarmists who think human use of fossil fuels is causing ultimately
catastrophic global warming. That is because natural
climate cycles have already turned from warming to cooling,
global temperatures have already been declining for more than 10 years , and global temperatures will
continue to decline for another two decades or more. That is one of the most interesting conclusions to come out of the seventh
International Climate Change Conference sponsored by the Heartland Institute, held last week in Chicago. I attended, and served as one of the
speakers, talking about The Economic Implications of High Cost Energy. The conference featured serious
natural science, contrary
to the self-interested political science you hear from government financed global warming alarmists seeking to justify
widely expanded regulatory and taxation powers for government bodies, or government body wannabees, such as the United Nations. See for
yourself, as the conference speeches are online. What you
will see are calm, dispassionate presentations by serious,
pedigreed scientists discussing and explaining reams of data. In sharp contrast to these climate realists, the climate
alarmists have long admitted that they cannot defend their theory that humans are causing catastrophic
global warming in public debate. With the conference presentations online, let’s see if the alarmists really do have any response. The
Heartland Institute has effectively become the international headquarters of the climate realists, an analog to the UN’s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It has achieved that status through these international climate conferences, and the publication of its Climate
Change Reconsidered volumes, produced in conjunction with the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). Those
Climate Change Reconsidered volumes are an equivalently thorough scientific rebuttal to the irregular Assessment Reports of the UN’s IPCC.
You can ask any advocate of human caused catastrophic global warming what their response is to Climate Change Reconsidered. If they have
none, they are not qualified to discuss the issue intelligently. Check out the 20th
century temperature record, and you will find that
and down pattern does not follow the industrial revolution’s upward march of atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2), which is the supposed central culprit for man caused global warming (and has been much, much higher in the past). It follows
its up
instead the up and down pattern of naturally caused climate cycles. For example, temperatures dropped
steadily from the late 1940s to the late 1970s. The popular press was even talking about a coming ice age. Ice ages have cyclically
occurred roughly every 10,000 years, with a new one actually due around now. In the late 1970s, the natural
cycles turned warm
and temperatures rose until the late 1990s, a trend that political and economic interests have tried to milk mercilessly to their
advantage. The incorruptible satellite measured global atmospheric temperatures show less warming during this period than the heavily
manipulated land surface temperatures. Central to these natural cycles is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Every 25 to 30
years the
oceans undergo a natural cycle where the colder water below churns to replace the warmer water at the
surface, and that affects global temperatures by the fractions of a degree we have seen. The PDO was cold from the
late 1940s to the late 1970s, and it was warm from the late 1970s to the late 1990s, similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In
2000, the UN’s IPCC predicted that global temperatures would rise by 1 degree Celsius by 2010. Was that based on climate science, or political
science to scare the public into accepting costly anti-industrial regulations and taxes? Don Easterbrook,
Professor Emeritus of
Geology at Western Washington University, knew the answer. He publicly predicted in 2000 that global
temperatures would decline by 2010. He made that prediction because he knew the PDO had turned cold in 1999, something the
political scientists at the UN’s IPCC did not know or did not think significant. Well, the results are in, and the winner is….Don
Easterbrook. Easterbrook also spoke at the Heartland conference, with a presentation entitled “Are Forecasts of a 20-Year Cooling Trend
Credible?” Watch that online and you will see how scientists are supposed to talk: cool, rational, logical analysis of the data, and full
explanation of it. All
I ever see from the global warming alarmists, by contrast, is political public relations,
personal attacks, ad hominem arguments, and name calling, combined with admissions that they can’t
defend their views in public debate. Easterbrook shows that by 2010 the 2000 prediction of the IPCC was wrong by
well over a degree , and the gap was widening . That’s a big miss for a forecast just 10 years away, when the same folks
expect us to take seriously their predictions for 100 years in the future. Howard Hayden, Professor of Physics Emeritus at the University of
Connecticut showed in his presentation at the conference that based on the historical record a doubling of CO2 could be expected to produce a
2 degree C temperature increase. Such a doubling would take most of this century, and the temperature impact of increased concentrations of
CO2 declines logarithmically. You can see Hayden’s presentation online as well. Because PDO cycles last 25 to 30 years, Easterbrook
expects the cooling trend to continue for another 2 decades or so. Easterbrook, in fact, documents 40 such
alternating periods of warming and cooling over the past 500 years, with similar data going back 15,000 years. He
further expects the flipping of the ADO to add to the current downward trend. But that is not all. We are also currently experiencing a
surprisingly long period with very low sunspot activity. That is associated in the earth’s history with even lower,
colder temperatures. The pattern was seen during a period known as the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, which saw temperature
readings decline by 2 degrees in a 20 year period, and the noted Year Without A Summer in 1816 (which may have had other contributing short
term causes). Even worse was the period known as the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715, which saw only about 50 sunspots during one 30
year period within the cycle, compared to a typical 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots during such periods in modern times. The Maunder Minimum
coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, which the earth suffered from about 1350 to 1850. The Maunder Minimum saw sharply
reduced agricultural output, and widespread human suffering, disease and premature death. Such impacts
of the sun on the
earth’s climate were discussed at the conference by astrophysicist and geoscientist Willie Soon, Nir J. Shaviv, of the
Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Sebastian Luning, co-author with leading German
environmentalist Fritz Vahrenholt of The Cold Sun. Easterbrook suggests that the outstanding question is only how cold
this present cold cycle will get. Will it be modest like the cooling from the late 1940s to late 1970s? Or will the paucity of sunspots
drive us all the way down to the Dalton Minimum, or even the Maunder Minimum? He says it is impossible to know now. But based on
experience, he will probably know before the UN and its politicized IPCC.
STEM Add on Neg
U.S. manufacturing dominates the market, manufacturing innovation solves tech
output
NIST 2009 National Institute of Standards and Technology, measurement standards laboratory,
government agency, 2009, “The Facts About Modern Manufacturing”,
http://www.nist.gov/mep/upload/FINAL_NAM_REPORT_PAGES.pdf
The 8th edition of the Facts gives a snapshot of the state of U.S. manufacturing, and exhibits its strengths and challenges. The Facts clearly show
that manufacturing
continues to play a vital role in the U.S. economy. This edition illustrates that the
quantity of manufactured goods produced in the United States has kept pace with overall economic
growth since 1947, as both GDP and manufacturing have grown by about seven times (Figure 2). The United
States still has the largest manufacturing sector in the world, and its market share (around 20 percent)
has held steady for 30 years (Figure 131. One in six private sector jobs is still in or directly tied to
manufacturing (Figure 8). Moreover, productivity growth is higher in manufacturing than in other
sectors of the economy (Figure 25). Due largely to outstanding productivity growth, the prices of
manufactured goods have declined since 1995 in contrast to inflation in most other sectors, with the
result that manufacturers are contributing to a higher standard of living for U.S. consumers (Figure 12).
Manufacturing still pays premium wages and benefits, and supports much more economic activity per
dollar of production than other sectors (Figure 9). Another major indicator of the importance of
manufacturing to the strength of the economy is its key role in driving innovation and technology. These
are crucial components of a productivity-driven, global competitiveness agenda, and also help explain the steady rise in our standard of living.
U.S. manufacturing accounts for 35 percent of value added in all of the world's high technology
production, and enjoys a trade surplus in revenues from royalties from production processes and
technology. U.S. inventors still account for more than one- half of all patents granted in the United
States (Figure 26), and the nation outpaces its rivals in terms of industrial research and development. Technology has aided U.S.
manufacturers to use less energy per unit or dollar of production (Figure 30) and to lead all other sectors in reducing C02 emissions in the last
two decades (Figure 29). Finally, the
technology and advanced processes developed in manufacturing
consistently spill over into productivity growth in the service and agriculture sectors. For this reason, it is
important to consider innovation in terms of processes as well as technologies.
Ocean policy is increasing now – status quo solves the advantage
Babb-Brott 2013 Deerin Babb-Brott, former director of the National Ocean Council, 7/19/13, “A
Guide for Regional Marine Planning”,http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/07/19/guide-regionalmarine-planning
Today, the
National Ocean Council released a Marine Planning Handbook to support the efforts of regions
that choose to engage marine industries, stakeholders, the public, and government to advance their
economic development and conservation priorities. Each coastal region of the country has its own interests and ways of doing
business, but all regions want to support their marine economies and coastal communities. Voluntary marine
planning is a science-based tool that provides regionally tailored information that all ocean interests can
use to reduce conflicts, grow ocean industries, and support the healthy natural resources that our
economy and communities depend on. Federal, state and local governments have a variety of roles and
responsibilities when it comes to the ocean, and make decisions every day that impact ocean resources, industries and coastal
communities. Regions that choose to do marine planning are guaranteeing that the public and marine stakeholders will shape these decisions early on, promoting
better outcomes for everyone. Regions can define what they want to address and how they do so, in ways that reflect their unique interests and priorities. At the
same time, some
components of planning – like making sure the public and stakeholders have a chance to engage – are common to all
regions. The Handbook provides guidance on how regions can address their priorities through a bottom-
up, transparent, science-based process. The Handbook reflects the extensive public and stakeholder input received in the development of the
National Ocean Policy and its Implementation Plan. We will update it as needed to reflect the lessons learned in regions and ensure it continues to be a useful guide
for successful, collaborative planning.
New programs don’t generate interest and STEM is inevitable
Spudis 2011 Paul Spudis, Senior Staff Scientist at the Lunar and Planetary Institute, 2011, The Once
and Future Moon Blog, Smithsonian Air and Space Blog, 5/14/11, “Young Visitors Inspire Old Scientist,”
http://blogs.airspacemag.com/moon/2011/05/young-visitors-inspire-old-scientist/
A perennial hand-wringing topic among policy geeks is America’s decline in math and science proficiency. This sentiment has been expressed
the entire 30 years I’ve worked on space science and exploration – new generations don’t care about space, can’t do math and science, can’t
think properly and the country’s going to hell in a hand basket. Complaint about the decline in our ability is something passed from one
generation to the next. Today’s youth are being corrupted by iPods, Facebook and hip-hop; when I was a kid, it was Frisbees, MAD magazine
and the Beatles. There
is a continuous stream of doom-laden reports outlining the decline of American youth
in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math (called STEM). In this country, most Ph.D.s in science and
technology are now foreign-born (these reports don’t mention that most often, they stay here, adding to our technical knowledge base).
Multiple factors are suggested as contributors to this decline, with the lack of an inspiring, exciting space
program long believed to be important by many advocates. This meme, of long currency in space policy circles, has
some flaws. Origins of the association between space exploration and science education go back to the days of Sputnik –the “ping” that
shocked and alarmed the country. This event prompted loud public cries for somebody to “do something” about the educational decline of
America’s youth (corrupted then by ’57 Chevys, hula-hoops and Elvis). Congress responded in the usual manner – they threw money at the
problem. The National Defense Education Act of 1958 (interesting wording that) created a huge infrastructure largely dependent upon federal
funding that directly answered the Soviet challenge in space. The number of science graduates exploded over the next couple of decades,
leading many to conclude that 1) the excitement generated by the Apollo program inspired these students to aspire to careers in science; 2)
huge amounts of federal money can solve any problem. Although
Apollo is now a distant memory (or for many, a distant,
confluence of space and education is taken as a
historical event that they’ve only read about in third-hand accounts), the
given by many in the business. NASA spends a designated fraction of their budget on a process called “EPO” (Education and Public
Outreach), designed to inform and inspire the next generation of scientists and explorers. As you might expect, these efforts range from the
interesting and innovative to the embarrassing (though well intentioned). A
perception has emerged that the problem lies
not with the methodology, but with the product – because we are not doing anything in space that is
“exciting,” we aren’t producing quality scientists and engineers. This may well account for what sensible students – with
an eye toward putting food on the table after they graduate – choose to study. Then too, perhaps there are too many in the field already. But
with effort, excellence will find productive work; self-esteem and entitlement will not cut it in the long run, no matter what your field of
endeavor. Recently, I
had the opportunity to directly interact with students at two ends of the education
pipeline and found the experience highly encouraging. In the first case, the father of a local second-grader asked if his son could visit and
interview me. The boy had chosen to write a semester paper (in second grade??) about the Moon. The child was both well spoken
and well informed. He asked relevant and very intelligent questions. What is the value of the Moon? What do we want to know about it
and how do we find these things out? Can people live there? I found his questions and understanding of the problems and benefits of exploring
the Moon to be at a very high level (much higher than many adult reporters who call me). Then he asked me an unexpected question: How fast
does the Moon travel through space? After initially drawing a complete blank, I suggested that we find out together and went on to calculate it
on the spot. We concluded that the Moon flies around the Earth at over 2200 miles per hour (much faster than he traveled down the freeway
to visit me). He was delighted by this episode of “science in action.” I was delighted to be challenged by his understanding and his interest in
the topic. Around the same time, a
high school debate coach contacted me. He told me that next year’s debate question is
asked if I could assist his team, as they were collecting information for their
briefing books. Once again, I was pleasantly surprised by their level of knowledge and their understanding
of complex issues. We reviewed the history of the space program, and why and how the current policy confusion has developed.
These students were informed and sharp. They had already read and digested a great deal of information – drawing insight and
conclusions about issues the space community is embroiled in. Their questions were both penetrating and logical, and
sent a clear message of their desire to fully understand the technical and programmatic issues involved.
What did I conclude from my encounter with a sample of today’s youth? Mostly, that reports of the demise of our Republic are
premature. These kids were smart and well informed. They could assimilate new information and apply
it to other topics in clever ways. They had an enthusiasm for their subject that was both gratifying and surprising. And, they
are interested in space, regardless of the current “uninspiring” nature of the program. Inspiration is great, but
“Should humans explore space?” and
it’s a highly personal factor and its impact and importance are difficult to measure. The
current STEM/outreach process at
NASA conflates excitement and inspiration, but they are two different things. The circus entertains us
but we find inspiration elsewhere. We need to focus on building a stable space program that will give us long-term benefits – a
step-wise, incremental program that gradually increases the extent of our reach into space. Compared to the current policy chaos, it just might
be inspirational too.
Growth is not a strong enough predictor of war to matter
Blackwill 2009 Robert Blackwill, former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and
Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning, “The
Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP275.html
Did the economic slump lead to strategic amendments in the way Japan sees the world? No. Did it slow the pace of India’s
emergence as a rising great power? No. To the contrary, the new Congress-led government in New Delhi will accelerate that process. Did it alter Iran’s
apparent determination to acquire a nuclear capability or something close to it? No. Was it a prime cause of the recent domestic crisis and instability in Iran
after its 2009 presidential election? No. Did it slow or accelerate the moderate Arab states intent to move along the nuclear path? No. Did it affect
North Korea’s destabilizing nuclear calculations? No. Did it importantly weaken political reconciliation in Iraq? No, because there is almost none in any case.
Did it slow the Middle East peace process? No, not least because prospects for progress on issues between Israel and the Palestinians are the most unpromising in
25 years. Did it substantially affect the enormous internal and international challenges associated with the growth of Jihadiism in Pakistan? No. But at the
same time, it is important to stress that Pakistan, quite apart from the global recession, is the epicenter of global terrorism and now represents potentially the most
dangerous international situation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Did the global economic downturn systemically affect the future of Afghanistan? No.
The fact that the United States is doing badly in the war in Afghanistan has nothing to do with the economic deterioration. As Henry Kissinger observes, “The
conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” And NATO is not winning in Afghanistan. Did it change in a major way the future of
the Mexican state? No. Did the downturn make
Europe, because of its domestic politics, less willing and able over time to join the U.S. in
effective alliance policies? No, there will likely be no basic variations in Europe’s external policies and no serious evolution in transatlantic relations. As President
Obama is experiencing regarding Europe, the problems with European publics in this regard are civilizational in character, not especially tied to this recession—in
general, European publics do not wish their nations to take on foreign missions that entail the use of force and possible loss of life. Did the downturn slow further
EU integration? Perhaps, at the margin, but in any case one has to watch closely to see if EU integration moves like a turtle or like a rock. And so forth. To
be
clear, there will inevitably be major challenges in the international situation in the next five years. In fact, this will be the most
dangerous and chaotic global period since before the 1973 Middle East war. But it is not obvious that these disturbing
developments will be primarily a result of the global economic problems. It is, of course, important to be alert to primary
and enduring international discontinuities. If such a convulsive geopolitical event is out there, what is it? One that comes to mind
is another catastrophic attack on the American homeland. Another is the collapse of Pakistan and the loss of government control of its nuclear arsenal to Islamic
extremists. But again, neither of these two geopolitical calamities would be connected to the current economic decline. Some
argue that, even though
geopolitical changes resulting from the current global economic tribulations are not yet apparent, they are occurring beneath the
surface of the international system and will become manifest in the years to come. In short, causality not perceptible now will
become so. This subterranean argument is difficult to rebut. To test that hypothesis, the obvious analytical method is to seek tangible data that demonstrates that it
is so. In short, show A, B, and/or C (in this case, geopolitical transformations caused by the world slump) to have occurred, thus substantiating the contention. One
could then examine said postulated evidence and come to a judgment regarding its validity. To
instead contend that, even though no such
data can be adduced, the assertion, nevertheless, is true because of presently invisible occurrences
seems more in the realm of religious conviction than rigorous analysis. But it is worth asking, as the magisterial American
soldier/statesman George Marshall often did, “Why might I be wrong?” If the global economic numbers continue to decline next year and the year after, one must
wonder whether any region would remain stable— whether China would maintain internal stability, whether the United States would continue as the pillar of
international order, and whether the European Union would hold together. In that same vein, it is unclear today what effect, if any, the reckless financial lending
and huge public debt that the United States is accumulating, as well as current massive governmental fiscal and monetary intervention in the American economy,
will have on U.S. economic dynamism, entrepreneurial creativity, and, consequently, power projection over the very long term. One can only speculate on that issue
at present, but it is certainly worth worrying about, and it is the most important “known unknown”27 regarding this subject.28 In addition, perhaps the Chinese
Communist Party’s grip on China is more fragile than posited here, and possibly Pakistan and Mexico are much more vulnerable to failed-state outcomes primarily
because of the economic downturn than anticipated in this essay. While
it seems unlikely that these worst-case scenarios will
eventuate as a result of the world recession, they do illustrate again that crucial uncertainties in this analysis are the global downturn’s
length and severity and the long-term effects of the Obama Administration’s policies on the U.S. economy. Finally, if not, why not? If the world is in the
most severe international economic crisis since the 1930s, why is it not producing structural changes in
the global order? A brief answer is that the transcendent geopolitical elements have not altered in
substantial ways with regard to individual nations in the two years since the economic crisis began. What
are those enduring geopolitical elements? For any given country, they include the following: • Geographic location, topography,
and climate. As Robert Kaplan puts it, “to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to
qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate.”29 In this connection, see in particular the works of Sir Halford John Mackinder and his The
Geographical Pivot of History (1904)30, and Alfred Thayer Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783 (1890).31 • Demography—the size, birth
rate, growth, density, ethnicity, literacy, religions, migration/emigration/ assimilation/absorption, and industriousness of the population. • The histories, foreign and
defense policy tendencies, cultural determinants, and domestic politics of individual countries. • The size
and strength of the domestic
economy. • The quality and pace of technology. • The presence of natural resources. • The character, capabilities, and policies of neighboring
states. For the countries that matter most in the global order, perhaps unsurprisingly, none of these decisive variables have changed
very much since the global downturn began, except for nations’ weaker economic performances. That single factor is not
likely to trump all these other abiding geopolitical determinants and therefore produce international structural change.
Moreover, the fundamental power relationships between and among the world’s foremost countries
have also not altered, nor have those nations’ perceptions of their vital national interests and how best to promote and defend them. To sum up this
pivotal concept, in the absence of war, revolution, or other extreme international or domestic disruptions, for nation-states, the
powerful abiding conditions just listed do not evolve much except over the very long term, and thus neither do countries’
strategic intent and core external policies— even, as today, in the face of world economic trials. This point was made earlier about Russia’s enduring national
security goals, which go back hundreds of years. Similarly, a Gulf monarch recently advised—with respect to Iran—not to fasten on the views of President
Ahmadinejad or Supreme Leader Khamenei. Rather, he counseled that, to best understand contemporary Iranian policy, one should more usefully read the
histories, objectives, and strategies of the Persian kings Cyrus, Darius, and Xerxes, who successively ruled a vast empire around 500 BC.32 The American filmmaker
Orson Welles once opined that “To
give an accurate description of what never happened is the proper occupation of the
of pundits. ■
historian.” 33 Perhaps the same is occasionally true
Disease
No Solvency
They can’t solve disease – anti-vaccination movement gives disease a foothold within
communities and spreads from there
Kollipara 5/5 Puneet Kollipara, Journalist for the Washington Post, 5/5/2014, “How the Anti-Vaccine
Movement is Endangering Lives”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/05/how-the-anti-vaccine-movement-isendangering-lives/
Infectious diseases that we normally think of as rare in the United States are making a comeback. In recent
years, pertussis -- also known as whooping cough -- has returned to the headlines. A measles outbreak that struck a Texas megachurch community late last summer
sickened 21 people. And just recently, at least 16 people got sick during a measles outbreak in Ohio. In fact, the
Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention recently reported 13 measles outbreaks so far in 2014 -- the most since 1996. The diseases are highly
contagious, but they are also preventable; two of the many recommended childhood vaccinations
protect against measles and pertussis. And measles had been considered effectively eliminated in the United States. What's going on, exactly?
Here are some answers. Why are so many outbreaks happening? Although it's a complex problem, health officials say one key culprit is that more and
more people are choosing not to get their kids vaccinated against these diseases. For instance, in California parents
are increasingly seeking personal or religious exemptions from vaccination requirements for their kids to attend schools. Substandard vaccination
rates create an opening for outbreaks, which often start when an unvaccinated person catches the
disease while traveling abroad and spreads the illness to friends and family upon returning. But aren't overall
vaccination rates really high? Nationally, yes, though it wasn't always this way. Before the 1990s, rates languished below 80 percent for most childhood vaccines at
the time. In 1993, after the 1989-1991 measles outbreak, Congress enacted the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program to promote childhood vaccinations. CDC data
show that vaccination rates are now above 90 percent range for several routine vaccines, including the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) and whooping cough
vaccines. Public health officials target a 90 percent vaccination rate for most routine childhood vaccines. Experts
say that a population has
"herd immunity" when enough people are vaccinated to prevent a disease from taking hold. This chart shows
how vaccination rates climbed after VFC's enactment: If vaccination rates are high, why are we seeing so many outbreaks? That's because vaccination
rates aren't geographically uniform. Public-health experts say that high non-vaccination or exemption
rates can occur among pockets of people, particularly at the county or city level. And some research has
found that outbreaks are far more likely to happen in these areas, such as during the recent whooping cough outbreaks in
California. Why are people not vaccinating their kids? There are a number of factors at play. Many of the diseases we vaccinate against are so rare here now that
the public's awareness of vaccination might have decreased. But the one reason that has most alarmed public-health experts lately has been the rise of the antivaccine movement. Groups
and activists such as celebrity Jenny McCarthy have repeatedly claimed that
vaccines cause autism. This vaccine-autism concern may be causing a drop in childhood vaccination
rates in many communities, including in affluent, well-educated ones. Do vaccines cause autism? Science gives a resounding
no. Anti-vaccine activists often hang their case on a study published in the British journal The Lancet in 1998. This study, which posited a link between the MMR
vaccine and autism, was widely discredited by the scientific community and eventually retracted. But the anti-vaccine movement has still gained steam. Anti-
vaccine activists have also raised concerns about vaccines made with the mercury-based preservative
known as thimerosal, which they worry could cause brain damage in developing kids. It's true that vaccines once
routinely contained thimerosal, which government officials recognized as generally safe. But this preservative has been phased out of nearly all vaccines as a
precautionary measure. Anti-vaccine activists also worry that the CDC's recommended vaccination schedule could overwhelm infants' immune systems by packing
too many doses into a short period of time. Although the number of vaccinations that kids receive now is higher than it used to be, the main ingredients in the
vaccines have actually decreased in amount. Even if these ingredient amounts hadn't decreased, research has found no relationship between those amounts and
autism risk. Vaccines do carry a risk of side effects, but they are usually minor. The CDC has concluded from reviewing the scientific evidence that there's no causal
link between childhood vaccinations and autism.
No Solvency-Cant contain
The aff can’t solve, containment is impossible
Blancou et al 2005 Jean Blancou, former General Director of OEI, Bruno Chomel, Researcher for
WHO/PAHO Collaborating Center on New and Emerging Zoonoses, Albino Belotto, Researcher for
Veterinary Public Health Unit, Pan American Health Organization, François Meslin, Researcher for
Strategy Development and Monitoring of Zoonoses, Food-borne Diseases and Kinetoplastidae (ZFK),
Communicable Diseases Control Prevention and Eradication “Emerging or re-emerging bacterial
zoonoses: factors of emergence, surveillance and control,” Vet. Res. 36, pg 507-522, http://hal.archivesouvertes.fr/docs/00/90/29/77/PDF/hal-00902977.pdf
The main obstacles that are encountered in the control of bacterial zoonoses are the same as those opposed to the control of any infectious
disease, that is most often finan- cial and human obstacles rather than tech- nical limitations.
The financial resources needed to
effi- ciently fight against zoonotic agents are not available for all countries. Only the international
community’s financial support, could, notably, allow developing countries to organize a proper control
of zoonotic dis- eases, but it is rare that this is materialized as a financial gift and mobilization of specific funds, even by well-known interna- tional organizations (such as WHO, FAO, OIE), is limited for such diseases. Due to all these
difficulties, many sanitary authorities of these countries have given up the estab- lishment of such prevention programs. Oth- ers manage, with
a lot of perseverance, to elaborate complicated multilateral financial arrangements. This allows punctual projects to be realized, but rarely to
establish the long-term prophylaxis plans that they really need. When financial and material problems are supposedly solved,
humanrelated dif- ficulties should not be underestimated. These difficulties can originate within the services in charge of applying
the national prophy- laxis plans, when these services are not themselves convinced of the good use of these plans, or when they do not seem to
get specific benefits from it. The
obstacles sometimes result from a lack of cooperation between specific
professional categories, amongst which figure breeders, as well as livestock brokers or even veterinarians
bothered by the application of certain pro- grams of control or the limited incentive given by the health
authorities for perform- ing prophylaxis tasks. Finally, the obstacle to such plans may be caused by the
active opposition of the public opinion to certain methods of control. This is notably the case for the
hostility of some groups to the mass slaughtering of animals during epizootics, or to the use of vaccines
issued from genetic engineering. By lack of an appropriate con- sensus, the control of some zoonotic dis- eases may simply be
impossible in some countries.
No Extinction
---Super viruses won’t cause extinction
(A.) Burnout.
Lafee 2009
Scott, Union-Tribune Staff Writer, “Viruses versus hosts: a battle as old as time”, May 3rd,
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/may/03/1n3virus01745-viruses-versus-hosts-battle-old-time/?uniontrib
Generally speaking, it's not in a virus's best interest to kill its host. Deadly viruses such as Ebola and SARS are self-limiting
because
they kill too effectively and quickly to spread widely.
Flu viruses do kill, but they aren't considered especially deadly. The
fatality rate of the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic was less than 2.5 percent, and most of those deaths are now attributed to secondary bacterial
infections. The historic fatality rate for influenza pandemics is less than 0.1 percent. Humans make
“imperfect hosts” for the nastiest flu viruses, Sette said. “From the point of view of the virus, infecting humans can be a
dead end. We sicken and die too soon.”
(B.) Genetic diversity.
Sowell 2001
Thomas, Fellow @ Hoover Institution, Jewish World Review, “The Dangers of “Equality””, 3-5,
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell030501.asp
People have different vulnerabilities and resistances to a variety of diseases.
That is why one disease is
unlikely to wipe out the human species, even in one place. An epidemic that sweeps through an area may leave
some people dying like flies while others remain as healthy as horses.
(C.) Co-evolution.
Posner 2005
Richard, Judge, 7th Circuit court of Appeals, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, pg. 22
AIDS illustrates the further point that despite the progress made by modern medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases, developing a
vaccine or cure for a new (or newly recognized or newly virulent) disease may be difficult, protracted, even impossible. Progress has been made
in treating ATDS, but neither a cure nor a vaccine has yet been developed. And because the virus's mutation rate is high, the treatments may not
work in the long run.7 Rapidly mutating viruses are difficult to vaccinate against, which is why there is no vaccine for the common cold and why
flu vaccines provide only limited protection.8 Paradoxically, a treatment that is neither cure nor vaccine, but merely reduces the severity of a
disease, may accelerate its spread by reducing the benefit from avoiding becoming infected. This is an important consideration with respect to
AIDS, which is spread mainly by voluntary intimate contact with infected people. Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every
disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its existence is a source of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction events. There
have been enormously destaictive plagues, such as the Black Death, smallpox, and now AIDS, but none has come close to destroying the entire
human race. There is a biological reason. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter in an
evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too
quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by lying dormant yet infectious in its host for years maximizes its
spread. Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human race. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would
cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times,
when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider human contacts that make it more
difficult to localize an infectious disease. The reason is improvements in medical science. But the comfort is a small one. Pandemics can still
impose enormous losses and resist prevention and cure: the lesson of the AIDS pandemic. And there is always a first time.
No Impact-Zoonotic disease
Zoonotic diseases are less threatening than others — they are contained now
Torres 1999 Alfonso Torres, D.V.M., M.S., Ph.D., Deputy Administrator, USDA, Animal Plant and Health
Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, 2/6/99, “International Economic Considerations Concerning
Agricultural Diseases and Human Health Costs of Zoonotic Diseases,” Annals of the New York Academy
of Sciences 894:80-82, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1999.tb08047.x/abstract
Animal diseases can negatively affect the number and availability of animals, their productivity, or their appearance. 1 A few centuries ago,
animal diseases affected mostly individual owners or herdsmen, but did not have serious consequences on the larger community. A similar
event today will not only have a negative impact on the animal owners, but more importantly, will significantly affect the general economy of
the region, the entire nation, even a group of nations. The importance of animal
diseases as an element affecting international
trade of animals and animal products has reached its full impact level with the recent designation by the World
Trade Organization (WTO) of the International Office of Epizootics (OIE) as the international agency in charge of
establishing animal health standards upon which international commerce can institute restrictions to
prevent the spread of animal diseases from one nation to another. It is important to point out that while the spread of
human diseases around the world is due to the unrestricted movement of people across political
boundaries, animal diseases are, for the most part, restricted to defined geographic areas of the world due to
the implementation of animal importation requirements, quarantines, animal movement regulations, and
by disease control measures that include mass vaccination campaigns and animal depopulation
practices. A number of animal diseases have been eradicated from countries or even from continents around the
world by aggressive, well-coordinated, long-term animal health campaigns. This is in contrast to the relatively few human
diseases successfully eradicated from large areas of the world.
Warming DA turns Disease
Warming turns the diseases advantage – climate change allows diseases to spread
more effectively
NRDC 2011 National Resources Defense Council, environmental protection group, 8/3/11, “Infectious
Diseases: Dengue Fever, West Nile Virus, and Lyme Disease”,
http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/disease.asp
While many
infectious diseases were once all but eliminated from the United States, there's evidence that
climate change is a factor that could help them expand their range and make a comeback. Mosquitoes
capable of carrying and transmitting diseases like Dengue Fever, for example, now live in at least 28
states. As temperatures increase and rainfall patterns change - and summers become longer - these
insects can remain active for longer seasons and in wider areas, greatly increasing the risk for people
who live there. The same is true on a global scale: increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity can allow tropical
and subtropical insects to move from regions where infectious diseases thrive into new places. This, coupled
with increased international travel to and from all 50 states, means that the U.S. is increasingly at risk for becoming home to
these new diseases. Nearly 4,000 cases of imported and locally-transmitted Dengue Fever were
reported in the U.S. between 1995 and 2005, and that number rises to 10,000 when cases in the Texas-Mexico border region
are included. In Florida, 28 locally-transmitted cases were reported in a 2009-2010 outbreak, the first there in more than 40 years. Dengue
Fever, also known as "Breakbone Fever", is characterized by high fever, headaches, bone and joint aches, and a rash. Recurrent infection can
lead to bleeding, seizures, and death. Lyme
disease - transmitted primarily through bites from certain tick species - could expand
throughout the United States and northward into Canada, as temperatures warm, allowing ticks to move into new
regions. West Nile virus, which first entered the U.S. in 1999, expanded rapidly westward across the
country. By 2005, over 16,000 cases had been reported. Warmer temperatures, heavy rainfall and high
humidity have reportedly increased the rate of human infection.
Sea Power
1NC—Sea Power Now
The navy is extremely powerful—the loss of information systems wouldn’t hurt it
Mizokami 14(Kyle, June 6, The Five Most-Powerful Navies on the Planet, Kyle Mizokami is a writer based in San
Francisco who has appeared in The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and The Daily Beast. In 2009 he
cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch., The National Intrest, The Five Most-Powerful Navies
on the Planet, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-five-most-powerful-navies-the-planet-10610)
First place on the list is no surprise: the United States Navy. The U.S. Navy has the most ships by far of any
navy worldwide. It also has the greatest diversity of missions and the largest area of responsibility.¶ No
other navy has the global reach of the U.S. Navy, which regularly operates in the Pacific, Atlantic and
Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and the Horn of Africa. The U.S. Navy also
forward deploys ships to Japan, Europe and the Persian Gulf.¶ The U.S. Navy has 288 battle force ships, of
which typically a third are underway at any given time. The U.S. Navy has 10 aircraft carriers, nine
amphibious assault ships, 22 cruisers, 62 destroyers, 17 frigates and 72 submarines. In addition to ships, the
U.S. Navy has 3,700 aircraft, making it the second largest air force in the world. At 323,000 active and
109,000 personnel, it is also the largest navy in terms of manpower.¶ What makes the U.S. Navy stand out
the most is its 10 aircraft carriers—more than the rest of the world put together. Not only are there
more of them, they’re also much bigger: a single Nimitz-class aircraft carrier can carry twice as many
planes (72) as the next largest foreign carrier. Unlike the air wings of other countries, which typically
concentrate on fighters, a typical U.S. carrier air wing is a balanced package capable of air superiority, strike,
reconnaissance, anti-submarine warfare and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief missions.¶ The U.S. Navy’s
31 amphibious ships make it the largest “gator” fleet in the world, capable of transporting and landing on
hostile beaches. The nine amphibious assault ships of the Tarawa and Wasp classes can carry helicopters to
ferry troops or act as miniature aircraft carriers, equipped with AV-8B Harrier attack jets and soon F-35B
fighter-bombers.¶ The U.S. Navy has 54 nuclear attack submarines, a mix of the Los Angeles, Seawolf, and
Virginia classes. The U.S. Navy is also responsible for the United States’ strategic nuclear deterrent at sea,
with 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines equipped with a total of 336 Trident nuclear missiles. The
USN also has four Ohio-class submarines stripped of nuclear missiles and modified to carry 154 Tomahawk
land attack missiles.¶ The U.S. Navy has the additional roles of ballistic missile defense, space operations
and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief. As of October 2013, 29 cruisers and destroyers were
capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, with several forward deployed to Europe and Japan. It also
monitors space in support of U.S. military forces, tracking the satellites of potential adversaries. Finally,
the U.S. Navy’s existing aircraft carriers and amphibious vessels, plus the dedicated hospital ships USNS
Mercy and USNS Comfort, constitute a disaster relief capability that has been deployed in recent years to
Indonesia, Haiti, Japan and the Philippines.
2NC—Sea Power Now
US naval power is decades ahead of the nearest competitor—plan doesn’t matter
Bloomberg 14(April 9, China's Aircraft Carrier Is Nothing to Fear,
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-09/china-s-aircraft-carrier-is-nothing-to-fear)
China’s plans for a blue-water navy centered on aircraft carriers follow a course the U.S. Navy plotted
more than half a century ago. This head start gives the U.S. an insurmountable lead in operational
experience and military hardware. The Liaoningis a refurbished Soviet warship with a conventional (not
nuclear) power plant and a tilted deck that severely limits the range and payload of its aircraft. It would be no
match for any of the U.S. Navy's 11 nuclear-powered carriers, each carrying twice as many aircraft and stateof-the-art catapults for launching them.¶ China’s planned new carriers will be far more capable than the
Liaoning -- but at a crippling price. The newest U.S. carrier will cost $13 billion. Add roughly 60 aircraft,
6,700 sailors, and other vessels to support and protect it, and a single U.S. carrier strike group costs roughly
$6.5 million a day to operate. Such outlays are a questionable investment even for the U.S., let alone
China. China's blue-water ambitions will drain a significant portion of its military budget to a sphere it
cannot hope to dominate.¶ Better still, the strategic aims that China can reasonably advance with a
carrier-based navy are relatively benign. Such a force could protect China’s energy lifeline of oil tankers
stretching to the Middle East, which is occasionally threatened by pirates. It could more effectively respond
to humanitarian disasters and, if the need arose, evacuate Chinese citizens working in far-flung locations.¶ In
addition, of course, China's government wants its blue-water navy for prestige, as a symbol of the country's
rise to great-power status. That's fine, too -- so long as it poses no threat to U.S. naval dominance. When it
comes to Chinese military power, aircraft carriers are the least of the world's concerns.
1NC—Information Dominance Now
Lockheed Martin solves data collection integration now
Lockheed Martin 14(June 30, Lockheed Martin Awarded Contract to Enhance U.S. Navy C4ISR Collection and
Dissemination Capabilities, http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2014/june/isgs-navyC4ISR0630.html)
Lockheed Martin [NYSE:LMT] will work to enhance how the Navy exchanges C4ISR data throughout the
space, air, surface, subsurface, and unmanned sensor domains under a contract with Space and Naval
Warfare Systems Center Pacific. This IDIQ contract has a ceiling value of $35 million over five years.¶ “For
the Navy, every platform is a sensor, and every sensor must be networked,” said Dr. Rob Smith, vice
president of C4ISR for Lockheed Martin Information Systems and Global Solutions. “We’ll leverage our
more than 30 years developing and fielding signals intelligence systems to increase the Navy’s intelligence
sharing capability across the full spectrum of maritime and littoral missions.”¶ Lockheed Martin codeveloped the Navy’s Distributed Information Operations-System, which addresses the Navy’s need for
network-centric intelligence to improve interoperability and enhance battlespace awareness. For that
effort, Lockheed Martin connected disparate Navy signals intelligence systems facilitating tactical data
exchange and allowing commanders to better understand their operational environment.¶ Building upon
those capabilities, Lockheed Martin will to continue to enhance the Navy’s signals intelligence collection,
data fusion, and intelligence processing and dissemination capabilities. This could involve integrating and
deploying capabilities that monitor the status of all sensors registered in the network; then displaying the
input from those sensors in support of real-time planning. Network integration of sensors will be designed
to accomplish cross-cueing, cooperative sensing and, where feasible and prudent, automated target
recognition or classification. The workscope for this contract also includes analyzing ways to enhance the
Navy’s use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for surface combatant land attacks.
Lockheed Martin solves information dominance
Tradingcharts.com 14(July 1, Lockheed Martin gets contract to enhance US Navy C4ISR collection,
dissemination capabilities,
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/Lockheed_Martin_gets_contract_to_enhance_US_Navy_C4ISR_col
lection__dissemination_capabilities_216288980.html)
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) said it will work to enhance how the Navy exchanges C4ISR data
throughout the space, air, surface, subsurface, and unmanned sensor domains under a contract with
Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific. This IDIQ contract has a ceiling value of USD35m over
five years.¶ Lockheed Martin co-developed the Navy's Distributed Information Operations-System, which
addresses the Navy's need for network-centric intelligence to improve interoperability and enhance
battlespace awareness. For that effort, Lockheed Martin connected disparate Navy signals intelligence
systems facilitating tactical data exchange and allowing commanders to better understand their
operational environment.
2NC—Information Dominance Now
Lockheed Martin solves any problems with sensors
Cheng 14(Joey, June 30, Navy awards $35M contract to boost C4ISR info sharing, Defense Systems, Joey Cheng is a
writer for Defense Systems Magazine, http://defensesystems.com/articles/2014/06/30/spawar-dio-s-unpgradeslockheed.aspx)
In an effort to improve information sharing from its multitude of sensors, the Navy has awarded Lockheed
Martin a contract to enhance the service’s C4ISR data exchange capabilities.¶ The indefinite
delivery/indefinite quantity contract with the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific has a ceiling
of up to $35 million over five years, and would upgrade how the Navy’s space, air, surface, subsurface and
unmanned sensors would collect and disseminate data, according to a Lockheed Martin release. ¶
SPAWAR is the Navy’s Information Dominance system command, and is responsible for the development
of communications and information capabilities for warfighters.¶ The Navy’s Distributed Information
Operations-System, originally co-developed by Lockheed, was designed to improve interoperability and
enhance battlespace awareness through network-centric intelligence, and connects a variety of signals
intelligence systems for tactical data exchange.¶ Leveraging its experience with DIO-S, Lockheed may be
working to implement a monitoring system capable of checking the statuses of all of the sensors registered in
its network in the future. The same system would then display the input from the sensors for real-time
planning.¶ Further integration of the sensors would allow cross-cueing and cooperative sensing, as well
as automated target recognition. The scope of the contract also includes possible enhancements of the
Navy’s use of unmanned aerial vehicles for ground attacks. ¶ Lockheed Martin also is a co-developer of the
Distributed Common Ground System, which seeks to integrate multiple intelligence, surveillance and
reconnaissance (ISR) sensors from different services and agencies into a common network. The Navy’s
version, DCGS-N, is the service’s primary ISR&T (the “T” is for Targeting) support system and provides
processing, exploitation, and dissemination capabilities for the operational and tactical level. These systems
are designed to allow modularity, flexibility, and standardization for integrating data sources,
transformation services, and user interfaces, according to Lockheed Martin.¶ “For the Navy, every
platform is a sensor, and every sensor must be networked,” said Dr. Rob Smith, vice president of C4ISR
for Lockheed Martin Information Systems and Global Solutions. “We’ll leverage our more than 30 years
developing and fielding signals intelligence systems to increase the Navy’s intelligence sharing capability
across the full spectrum of maritime and littoral missions.”
Current navy sensors solve
USNIDC 13(US Navy Information Dominance Corps, March, US Navy Dominance Information Dominance
Roadmap 2013-2028,
http://defenseinnovationmarketplace.mil/resources/Information_Dominance_Roadmap_March_2013.pdf)
A number of changes are programmed to improve the Navy's ability to manage¶ collect, process and
disseminate essential information to Navy units afloat and¶ ashore. Near-term BA capabilities to be addressed
during this timeframe are as¶ follows:¶ ' Centralized fleet collection management (CM) and tasking to support
both¶ standing and ad hoc requirements across diverse intelligence disciplines will¶ be developed and will
include: integrated collection plans, a consolidated¶ collection requirements database, and the means
to visualize available¶ collection assets;¶ ' Manned, unmanned and other diverse platforms will be fielded to
extend¶ orgnic sensor capability and capacity; commercial space-based imaging and¶ Automatic lnformation
Systems (AIS) collection systems will proliferate,¶ and an emergent capability to task, plan and direct
organic and other¶ sensors will be developed;¶ ' The transformation to distributed network
environments will begin to¶ emerge; high-performance computing will better understand and predict¶
the physical and virtual environments; automation of multiple intelligence¶ source (multi-INT)
data/information fusion and correlation will evolve and¶ adopt common data models and standards;
and service-based architectural¶ frameworks will be developed to enhance information sharing;¶ ' An
emerging system-of-systems approach fiir providing a Common¶ Operational Picture (COP) and a Common
Maritime Picture (CMP) will¶ begin to shape tactics, techniques and procedures to enhance multi-domain¶
awareness, and enterprise services and visualization tools will be developed¶ to help understand information,
depict actions and trends in near real-time,¶ ' Data sharing will be enhanced, enterprise solutions will be
pursued fiir¶ data purchasing and cross-domain solutions will be developed to begin¶ consolidating
Top Secret and Secret networks into a single classified¶ domain;¶ MOCs will remain as the centers
ofgravity for Fleet BA coordination and¶ will serve as central nodes for the C2 of Navy ISR assets
and resultant in-¶ theater analysis, and fleet commanders and TAOs will be able to establish¶ and
share a maritime COP that is periodically updated;¶ ' Planning tools with Theater Security Cooperation
capabilities and mission¶ partner capability information sources will become better integrated;¶ ' Improved
BA training fi)r all operators and watchstanders will be developed.
1NC—Information Overload
IOOS fails—overloads system with too much data
RAND 14(The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that ¶ helps improve policy and decisionmaking through
research and analysis, Data Flood Helping the Navy Address the Rising ¶ Tide of Sensor Information,
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR315/RAND_RR315.pdf)
¶
Despite the bat"t1e—tested¶ value of ISR systems, however, the large amount of data diey gener-¶ ate
has become overwhelming to Navy analysts. As the Intelligence¶ Science Board wrote in 2008, referring
to d'1C entire Department of¶ Defense (DoD), “the number of images and signal intercepts are well¶
beyond the capacity of the existing analyst community, so there are¶ huge bacldogs For tra.nslators and image
interpreters, and much of the¶ collected data are never reviewed." This is a good description of the¶
Navy’s big data challenge.
2NC—Information Overload
IOOS doesn’t solve—information overload
RAND 14(The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that ¶ helps improve policy and decisionmaking through
research and analysis, Data Flood Helping the Navy Address the Rising ¶ Tide of Sensor Information,
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR315/RAND_RR315.pdf)
¶
U.S. Navy intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) func-¶ tions have become critical to
U.S. national security over the last two¶ decades.1 Within the Navy, there is a growing demand for ISR
data¶ from drones and other souroes that provide situational awareness,¶ which helps Navy vessels avoid
collisions, pinpoint targets, and per-¶ form a host of odier mission-critical tasks.¶ The amount of data
generated by ISR systems has, however,¶ become overwhelming. All of the data collected by the Navy—and¶
available from other sources, both government and commercial—are¶ potentially useful, but processing them
and deriving useful knowledge¶ from them are severely taxing die analytical capabilities of the Navy's¶
humans and networks. As the Navy aoquires and fields new and addi-¶ tional sensors for collecting data, this
“big data” challenge will con-¶ tinue to grow. Indeed, if the Navy continues to field sensors as planned¶
but does not change the way it processes, exploits, and disseminates¶ information, it will reach an ISR
“tipping point"—the point at which¶ intelligence analysts are no longer able to complete a minimum
number¶ of exploitation tasks within given time constraints—as soon as 2016.1
IOOS would fail—too much data collection
Sarkar 14(Dibya, May 21, Navy must deal with rising tide of sensor data, writer for GCN,
http://gcn.com/Articles/2014/05/21/RAND-Navy-cloud.aspx?Page=1)
“We’re only now at the point where we’re starting to put up new UAVs with incredible sensors, so the
problem is only going to get worse,” said Isaac R. Porche III, a senior researcher with RAND and co-author
of the report.¶ Porche said the Navy had argued for more manpower to deal with the growing volumes of
data, but budgetary pressures forced it to seek other options to improve efficiency. RAND, which was hired
to do a quantitative assessment, looked at the imagery, video and audio that the Navy was collecting from
UAVs, studying how long it took for its analysts to process data from several siloed databases using different
desktop applications.¶ The report, Data Flood: Helping the Navy Address the Rising Tide of Sensor
Information, concluded that the Navy may reach a tipping point as early as 2016 when “analysts are no
longer able to complete a minimum number of exploitation tasks within given time constraints.” In
other words, analysts will be much less effective than they are now in finding value in the exponentially
increasing data if the Navy doesn’t change the way it collects, processes, uses, and distributes that data.
IOOS doesn’t solve—sensors collect too much data
Ungerleider 14(Neal, May 23, Neal Ungerleider covers science and technology for Fast Company, Will Drones
Make The U.S. Navy Migrate To The Cloud?, http://www.fastcolabs.com/3031082/will-drones-make-the-us-navymigrate-to-the-cloud)
The U.S. Navy loves sensors. The same gyrometers and motion detectors that fuel smartphones and
Microsoft’s Kinect also keep drones in the skies and aircraft carriers in sharp order. But the Navy--which is
the size of a large global megacorporation and also saddled with a huge bureaucracy--also has problems
dealing with the flood of data that sensors create. The RAND Corporation is arguing for something
unorthodox to deal with that data influx: A cloud for the Navy (PDF).What do you think?¶ In a paper
called, succinctly, “Data Flood,” think tank analyst Isaac R. Porche argues that the United States Navy needs
a private cloud service to cope with the influx of data created by sensors on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
and other smart military devices. Porche and his coauthors argue that there’s a precedent for creating a
private cloud service for the military--the little-known fact that the NSA, CIA, and other American
intelligence agencies are building their own cloud. In late October, Amazon Web Services reportedly
sealed a $600 million, 10-year deal with the CIA to develop a custom cloud infrastructure for U.S.
intelligence agents.¶ Porche and his team argue that if the Navy doesn’t adopt a cloud infrastructure,
there will be a tipping point as early as 2016 where analysts will become less and less effective because
bandwidth choke will prevent access to the information they need. “2016 is the year when the number
of UAS (drone) systems will be high enough and generating enough sensor data/imagery to overwhelm
human analysts,” Porche told Co.Labs by email.¶
Increasing the amount of information available does not increase military
effectiveness
USNI 9, US Naval institute blog, September 2009, “Information Dominance!? Say WHAT?”
http://blog.usni.org/2009/09/18/information-dominance-say-what
“ Information Dominance ?” Who was the Legion-of-Merit wearing 05 or 06 who thought THAT one up? Do we actually think we dominate the information spectrum?¶
Nothing against VADM Dorsett, but this type of terminology represents a badly flawed understanding of “information” as it pertains
to warfighting. This seems like the Cult of Cebrowski. Network-Centric Warfare as a concept is found very much wanting where the rubber meets the road. It might work if the
enemy we are fighting is the United States Navy, who has elevated information technology to a place on Olympus.¶ But for the rest of the world, our obsession
with a flattened information hierarchy is much more of a vulnerability than an advantage. That obsession treats
information like a drug. The more we have, the more we want. We are convinced that the key gem of
information that will clear away all the fog MUST be coming in the next data dump. Except the data dump is
increasingly difficult to sift through to find the critical information, if we are even aware of what is
critical
in light of so much unfiltered and unverified gatherings. The effort required to produce pertinent and
actionable intelligence, or even timely and worthwhile
suffers from such an approach to information and intelligence gathering.¶ Without launching a long dissertation regarding NCW and the
problems created by “information inundation” resulting from a sensor/shooter marriage across a massive battlefield, I believe such a term as “Information Dominance”
pays short shrift to a less sophisticated enemy whose extensive low-tech networks of informants are capable
of negating billions of dollars of maritime “stealth” technology (or finding the right merchant ship in a 400-mile long shipping lane) by using the eyeball, the
messenger, the motor scooter, or the sandal.¶ Such an enemy, I would argue, has a much clearer and simpler set of information
requirements, and is far more skilled, more disciplined, and much more successful at meeting those requirements than we are. So, who is
dominant in the information game? One could argue very effectively that it is not us.¶ Terms such as “Information Dominance” ring of a grandiose bit of
self-delusion that is part plan and part capability, with a large measure of wishful thinking. In the words of a certain retired Marine Corps General, “words mean things”. They also
information, oftentimes
reveal a lot about who uses them, and how. The term “Information Dominance” gives me the willies. Can we call it something a little less presumtuous?
1NC—Sea Power Not K2 Deterrence
Naval power is irrelevant—there are no emerging threats
Gerson and Russell 11(Michael and Allison Lawler, Michael Gerson is a nationally syndicated columnist who
appears twice weekly in the Washington Post. Michael Gerson is the Hastert Fellow at the J. Dennis Hastert Center for
Economics, Government, and Public Policy at Wheaton College in Illinois., Russell is also an assistant professor of
Political Science and International Studies at Merrimack College in North Andover, Massachusetts. Russell holds a Ph.D.
from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, an M.A. in International Relations from American
University in Washington, D.C., and a B.A. in Political Science from Boston College., American Grand Strategy and Sea
Power,
https://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/American%20Grand%20Strategy%20and%20Seapower%202011%20Conf
erence%20Report%20CNA.pdf)
According to Dr. John Mueller, the United States has been – and will continue to be – ¶ substantially free
from threats that require a great deal of military preparedness. In his view, ¶ there are no major threats to U.S.
security, and there have been none since the end of the ¶ Second World War. During the Cold War, the
United States spent trillions of dollars to deter ¶ a direct military threat that did not exist, since the Soviet
Union had no intention of ¶ launching an unprovoked attack on Europe or the United States. ¶ Despite the
continued absence of significant threats today, the United States is still engaged ¶ in a number of conflicts in
an effort to make the world look and act the way we want. In ¶ reality, however, most modern security issues
are not really military in nature; rather, they are ¶ policing and diplomatic activities that do not require
substantial U.S. military involvement. ¶ While isolationism is not a viable policy, the United States does not
need to use its military to ¶ solve all of the problems in the world. 158¶ 17¶ Dr. Mueller argued that the
absence of war among developed countries since 1945 is the ¶ greatest single development about war in
history. The end of the Cold War ushered in a New ¶ World Order, and from 1989 to 2000 the United States
was engaged in what Dr. Mueller ¶ called “policing wars.” There was very little domestic support for most of
these ventures, ¶ however, because there was a strong U.S. public aversion to nation building, a low tolerance ¶
for casualties, and a lack of concrete political gains from success.
Navy power is irrelevant—future conflicts will use ground forces
Till 6(Geoffrey, December, NAVAL TRANSFORMATION, GROUND ¶ FORCES, AND THE
EXPEDITIONARY IMPULSE:¶ THE SEA-BASING DEBATE, GEOFFREY TILL is the Professor of Maritime
Studies ¶ at the Joint Services Command and Staff College,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub743.pdf)
Recent experience suggests that the lessons learned¶ with such difficulty by the allies when they confronted¶
the chaos ensuing from the sudden collapse of Nazi¶ Germany in 1945 were major casualties of the Cold¶
War.‘ In Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States and¶ its allies are being reminded painfully that
stabilization¶ and reconstruction require larger numbers of troops¶ on the ground for much longer than
preintervention¶ planners might have thought necessary, and that the¶ soldiers in question need much
more than "mere"¶ warlighting skills. To relearn these lessons will likely¶ require a shift in the organizational
cultures of the¶ armed services?¶ Navies and air forces around the world have¶ drawn from this experience the
obvious conclusion that future defense priorities in countries with similar¶ interventionist aspirations are
likely to reflect a grow-¶ ing relative emphasis on the provision of intelligently¶ trained and responsive
"boots on the ground." With¶ resources being finite, defense expenditure on those¶ aspects of air and
naval forces whose function seems¶ less than wholly related to this central aim seem likely¶ to be
limited.3
2NC—Sea Power Not Key to Deterrence
Naval power not key—ground forces are sufficient
Rhodes 99(Edward, Spring, Naval War College Review, “. . . From the Sea”and Back Again
Naval Power in the Second American Century, Dr. Rhodes is associate professor of international relations and director
of the Center for Global Security and Democracy at Rutgers University.,Volume 42, No. 2, http://fas.org/man/dod101/sys/ship/docs/art1-sp9.htm#AUTHOR)
On the other hand, it also suggests the possibility that the Army is right and that if forward presence is to
matter it needs to be on the ground, that an offshore presence of a potent but limited force, with only
the implicit threat of surged ground forces, is less likely to have an impact, at least if the potential
aggressor has limited goals. It also suggests the possibility that the symbolism of naval forward presence,
serving as a reminder of the full weight and power the United States could ultimately bring to bear, may not
be that important. In war, the argument that forward naval forces operating with a littoral strategy can have
an important impact in the initial phases of the conflict, thereby preparing the ground for later U.S. successes,
is doubtless true. While true, however, it may well be relevant in only a limited range of cases. Most
potential conflicts or contingencies involve adversaries who are too small for this effect to matter much.
Short of a major regional conflict (¶ MRC¶ ), the superiority of U.S. military forces is sufficiently overwhelming that initial setbacks are not likely to be critically important. At the other extreme, in the case of
a regional near-peer competitor—a Russia or a China—it is hard to imagine a littoral strategy having much
of an impact: the amount of (nonnuclear)power that can be projected from the sea is trivial compared
to the size of the adversary’s society or military establishment.
Deterrence fails—multiple studies prove
Rhodes 99(Edward, Spring, Naval War College Review, “. . . From the Sea”and Back Again
Naval Power in the Second American Century, Dr. Rhodes is associate professor of international relations and director
of the Center for Global Security and Democracy at Rutgers University.,Volume 42, No. 2, http://fas.org/man/dod101/sys/ship/docs/art1-sp9.htm#AUTHOR)
In crisis, the forward-deployed capacity to project power "from the sea" is touted as having an
immediate deterrent effect—that is, dissuading an adversary who is tentatively considering going to war
from following through on that idea. Here we do have some evidence; at very best, however, it must be
regarded as offering mixed support for the Navy's advocacy of a littoral approach. A variety of studies of
conventional deterrence have been undertaken.60 While the research questions, underlying theoretical
assumptions, and research methods have varied, several general findings emerge.¶ The principal one is that
immediate extended deterrence with conventional means—that is, using threats of conventional
response to deter an adversary who is considering aggression against a third party—regularly fails, even
in cases where commitments are "clearly defined, repeatedly publicized and defensible, and the
committed [gives] every indication of its intentions to defend them by force if necessary."61 Unlike
nuclear deterrence, conventional deterrence does not appear to result in a robust, stable stalemate but in
a fluid and competitive strategic interaction that, at best, buys time during which underlying disputes or
antagonisms can be resolved. The possession of decisive conventional military superiority and the visible
demonstration of a resolve will not necessarily permit the United States to deter attacks on friends and
interests.¶ There are three reasons why immediate extended conventional deterrence is so problematic. First,
potential aggressors are sometimes so strongly motivated to challenge the status quo that they are
willing to run a high risk, or even the certainty, of paying the less-than-total costs of losing a war. Second,
potential aggressors frequently conclude, correctly or incorrectly, that they have developed a military
option that has politically or militarily "designed around" the deterrent threat. Third, there is
considerable evidence that, particularly when they are under severe domestic stress, potential
aggressors are unable to understand or respond rationally to deterrent threats. "Wishful thinking" by
leaders who find themselves caught in a difficult situation appears to be an all-too-common pathology.¶
Further, and more germane to the issue of naval forward presence as a crisis deterrent tool, there is some
evidence that because of the general insensitivity of potential aggressors to information, efforts to "signal"
resolve through measures such as reinforcing or redeploying forces have limited effectiveness. If force
movements are large enough to foreclose particular military options, they may forestall aggression. But as a
means of indicating resolve and convincing an aggressor of the credibility of deterrent commitments,
they do not generally appear to have an impact.
Naval power irrelevant—it can’t effectively project power
Rhodes 99(Edward, Spring, Naval War College Review, “. . . From the Sea”and Back Again
Naval Power in the Second American Century, Dr. Rhodes is associate professor of international relations and director
of the Center for Global Security and Democracy at Rutgers University.,Volume 42, No. 2, http://fas.org/man/dod101/sys/ship/docs/art1-sp9.htm#AUTHOR)
The first and most immediate danger is from competitors to the littoral strategy: there are, as Army and Air
Force voices have noted, a variety of ways besides projecting power "from the sea" to support a liberalinternationalist foreign policy and to fight a transoceanic-countermilitary war. While budgetary realities have
stimulated this strategic competition between the services and are likely to continue to serve as the spur, it
would be wrong to dismiss this challenge to the littoral strategy as mere interservice rivalry or budgetary
gamesmanship. Rather, what has developed is a serious, if admittedly parochially grounded, intellectual debate
over alternative national military strategies—over alternative ways to use America's military potential in
support of "engagement and enlargement." While a littoral naval strategy is consistent with a liberalinternationalist vision of national security and a transoceanic-countermilitary image of war, it is not the only
military strategy of which that can be said, and the Army and Air Force have successfully articulated
alternative military strategies that call into question the need for significant naval effort in the littorals.¶
The second danger, linked to the first, is that the Navy may be unable to develop a workable operational
concept for putting the littoral strategy into effect. Indeed, the Navy has found it remarkably difficult to
script a convincing story about precisely how a littoral strategy works—that is, the Navy has had a hard
time identifying what it is about naval operations in the littorals that yields political-military leverage
and what forces and activities are therefore required. The failure of "Forward . . . from the Sea" to address
the issue of alternative force packages is illustrative in this regard: continued insistence that carrier battle
groups and amphibious ready groups are needed at all times in all theaters reflects the conceptual and
bureaucratic difficulty of determining the actual requirements of a littoral strategy. Any decision to change
deployment patterns, mixes, or timetables would at least implicitly require a prioritization of peacetime, crisis,
and wartime duties; it would also represent a reallocation of resources within the service. But without a clear
understanding of the process by which littoral operations generate the peacetime, crisis, and wartime
outcomes sought, the Navy will find it impossible to make the difficult tradeoffs demanded by budgetary
pressures. Indeed, as budgetary pressures, the need to moderate personnel and operational tempos, and the
need to modernize become greater, the imperative for a clearer understanding of the relative value of (for
example) forward peacetime presence, forward peacetime presence by carriers and amphibious forces, rapid
crisis response, and massive wartime strike capacity will increase. Ultimately the danger is that a littoral
strategy will become unworkable through an inability of the Navy to make the required tradeoffs, in
which case it will find itself with forces that are too small, too overstretched, too poorly maintained, too
poorly trained or manned, too obsolescent, or simply improperly configured to meet what prove to be the
essential demands of a littoral strategy.¶ The third danger, more basic and more beyond the control of the
Navy than the first two, is that the vision of warfare underlying the littoral strategy will be abandoned by
the nation. The DESERT STORM image of war as a transoceanic countermilitary encounter is
increasingly vulnerable, and as the elite and public begin to imagine war in other, more traditional
terms, the attractiveness and importance of projecting power "from the sea" will become less apparent.
To stay in harmony with national leadership and national strategy, the Navy will be called upon to offer
a revised account of the utility of naval power.
Large militaries are irrelevant in deterrence--empirics
Mueller 11(John, “Embracing threatlessness: ¶ Reassessing U.S. military spending, John Mueller is Adjunct Professor
of Political Science and Senior Research Scientist at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies.,
https://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/American%20Grand%20Strategy%20and%20Seapower%202011%20Conf
erence%20Report%20CNA.pdf)
Over the course of the last several decades, the United States has variously sensed threat from ¶ small counties
led by people it found to be decidedly unpleasant. These rogue states (as they ¶ came to be called in the 1990s)
were led by such devils de jour as Nasser, Sukarno, Castro, ¶ Qaddafi, Khomeini, Kim Il-Sung, and Saddam
Hussein, all of whom have since faded into ¶ history’s dustbin. ¶ Today, such alarmed focus is directed at
teetering Iran, and at North Korea, the most ¶ pathetic state on the planet. Except in worst-case
fantasies, however, neither country presents ¶ a threat of direct military aggression – Iran, in fact, has
eschewed the practice for several ¶ centuries. Nonetheless, it might make some sense to maintain a capacity to
institute ¶ containment and deterrence efforts carried out in formal or informal coalition with ¶ concerned
neighboring countries – and there are quite a few of these in each case. However, ¶ neither country is
militarily impressive and the military requirements for effective ¶ containment are far from
monumental and do not necessarily need large forces-in-being. ¶ Moreover, the Iraq syndrome seems
already to be having its effect in this area. Despite nearly ¶ continuous concern about Iranian nuclear
developments, proposals to use military force to ¶ undercut this progress have been persistently undercut. ¶
The Gulf War of 1991 is an example of military force being successfully applied to deal with a ¶ rogue venture
– the conquest by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq of neighboring Kuwait. This ¶ experience does not necessarily
justify the maintenance of substantial military forces, ¶ however. First, Iraq’s invasion was rare to the point
of being unique: it has been the only case ¶ since World War II in which one UN country has invaded another
with the intention of ¶ incorporating it into its own territory. As such, the experience seems to be much
more of an ¶ aberration than a harbinger. Second, in a case such as that, countries do not need to have a
¶ large force-in-being because there is plenty of time to build a force should other measures to ¶
persuade the attacker to withdraw, such as economic sanctions and diplomatic forays, fail. ¶ And third, it
certainly appears that Iraq’s pathetic forces – lacking strategy, tactics, leadership, ¶ and morale – needed the
large force thrown at them in 1991 to decide to withdraw.18
Naval power fails
Till 6(Geoffrey, December, NAVAL TRANSFORMATION, GROUND ¶ FORCES, AND THE
EXPEDITIONARY IMPULSE:¶ THE SEA-BASING DEBATE, GEOFFREY TILL is the Professor of Maritime
Studies ¶ at the Joint Services Command and Staff College,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub743.pdf)
Even so, at least three problems remain. First, there ¶ may be a tendency to focus force protection too
much 1613¶ on the sea lines of communication and not enough ¶ on the security of sea ports, both of
embarkation and ¶ arrival. There also is a natural tendency to concentrate ¶ on the safe and timely
arrival of soldiers and their ¶ equipment in the theater, neglecting the dangers that, ¶ in these
asymmetrical days, may be posed to their ¶ collection and dispatch at home. In the Iraq operation, ¶
Greenpeace attempted to interfere with the loading of ¶ military supplies for the British forces at the military ¶
port of Marchwood in Southampton Water. They were ¶ ineffective and harmless, but nonetheless
represented ¶ a useful reminder of the vulnerability at the supplier’s ¶ end of the supply chain. ¶ Second, many
would doubt the permanence of the ¶ shift of naval priorities away from oceanic sea control ¶ and
towards its coastal force-protection variant. The ¶ emergence of new maritime powers such as Japan ¶ and
China, or the recovery of Russia, might lead to ¶ a resurgence of peer competition and old-fashioned ¶
maritime rivalry on the high seas. The U.S. Navy’s ¶ current wariness about the prospective maritime ¶
expansion of China later in the century may be used to ¶ justify investment in more conventional forms of
naval ¶ power. ¶ Third, the ability of naval forces to maintain an ¶ operational posture against relatively
unsophisticated ¶ shore-based opposition can be exaggerated. The ¶ vulnerability of ships to coastal
mines, small, quiet ¶ diesel submarines, terrorists on jet skis, or radical ¶ weaponry of the kind recently
demonstrated by the ¶ Iranians, has to be taken seriously.24
1NC—Sea Power Not K2 Trade
Naval power is not key to trade—there are no credible threats
Mueller 11(John, “Embracing threatlessness: ¶ Reassessing U.S. military spending, John Mueller is Adjunct Professor
of Political Science and Senior Research Scientist at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies.,
https://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/American%20Grand%20Strategy%20and%20Seapower%202011%20Conf
erence%20Report%20CNA.pdf)
Particularly in an age of globalization and expanding world trade, many, especially in the ¶ Navy, argue that
a strong military force is needed to police what is portentously labeled the ¶ “global commons.”
However, there seems to be no credible consequential threat, beyond ¶ those to worldwide shipping.
There have been a few attacks by pirates off Somalia, exacting ¶ costs in the hundreds of millions of
dollars a year from a multi-billion dollar industry which, ¶ surely, has the capacity to defend itself from
such nuisances – perhaps by the application on ¶ decks of broken glass, a severe complication for barefoot
predators. In the unlikely event that ¶ the problem should become severe, it would not need forces-inbeing; it could be dealt with ¶ by newly formulated forces designed for the specific purpose
2NC—Sea Power Not K2 Trade
Naval power not key to trade
Hultin & Blair 6(Jerry MacArthur HULTIN and Admiral Dennis BLAIR, Naval Power and Globalization: ¶ The
Next Twenty Years in the Pacific, Jerry M. Hultin is former president of Polytechnic Institute of New York University
From 1997 to 2000 Mr. Hultin served as Under Secretary of the Navy., Dennis Cutler Blair is the former United States
Director of National Intelligence and is a retired United States Navy admiral who was the commander of U.S. forces in
the Pacific region, http://engineering.nyu.edu/files/hultin%20naval%20power.pdf)
Technology has fundamentally changed the relationship between national naval power ¶ and economic
prosperity from the simplistic mercantilist tenets of Alfred Thayer Mahan almost ¶ two hundred years ago. No
longer does trade simply follow the flag, no longer is a strong ¶ national Navy required to support strong
national trade relationships. With the economies of ¶ many countries interdependent in sectors such as energy
and raw materials, and with ¶ globalization increasing interdependence in manufacturing and services, military
security is ¶ becoming increasingly a shared responsibility.
1NC—Alt Causes
Alt causes to navy power decline that IOOS can’t solve for
Hultin & Blair 6(Jerry MacArthur HULTIN and Admiral Dennis BLAIR, Naval Power and Globalization: ¶ The
Next Twenty Years in the Pacific, Jerry M. Hultin is former president of Polytechnic Institute of New York University
From 1997 to 2000 Mr. Hultin served as Under Secretary of the Navy., Dennis Cutler Blair is the former United States
Director of National Intelligence and is a retired United States Navy admiral who was the commander of U.S. forces in
the Pacific region, http://engineering.nyu.edu/files/hultin%20naval%20power.pdf)
As successful as this transformation has been, there are new technological, geo-political, ¶ and warfighting
challenges on the horizon that require solutions. The three most noteworthy are ¶ missile defense,
irregular warfare – peace operations, counter-insurgency warfare, stability ¶ operations and military
operations against non-state organizations using terrorist tactics – and the ¶ integration of all factors of
political-military influence. ¶ ¶ First, missile defense: in the future increasing numbers of littoral countries,
organizations ¶ such as Hezbollah that are sponsored by countries, and even unsponsored militant
organizations ¶ will field ballistic and cruise missiles up to intermediate ranges. These weapons will
threaten ¶ deployed US naval expeditionary forces, military forces and civilian populations of U.S. allies, ¶
and ultimately the United States itself. Thus, it is imperative that the United States and its allies ¶ develop and
deploy a highly effective capacity to defend against such attacks8¶ . There is not a ¶ single system solution to
this threat – the Navy must continue developing more capable sensors, ¶ communications networks,
offensive weapons to take out enemy missiles and their support ¶ systems, along with both hard-kill and softkill defensive systems that can defeat enemy missiles ¶ once they have been launched.
No uq to undersea warfare – shortage of subs and china military modernization
Eaglen and Rodeback 2010
Mackenzie Eaglen Research Fellow for National Security Studies, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies
Jon Rodeback Editor, Research Publications Heritage Submarine Arms Race in the Pacific: The Chinese
Challenge to U.S. Undersea Supremacy http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/02/submarinearms-race-in-the-pacific-the-chinese-challenge-to-us-undersea-supremacy
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is rapidly emerging as a regional naval power and a potential global
power, which "raises the prospect of intensifying security competition in East Asia both between the
United States and China and between China and Japan."[2] Other Pacific countries in the region have
also taken note of the changing security environment as evidenced in particular by their planned
submarine acquisitions. Australia's military buildup includes doubling its submarine fleet from six
submarines to 12 larger, more capable submarines.[3] In addition, "India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Indonesia,
Singapore, Bangladesh and South Korea are planning to acquire modern, conventional submarines."[4]
Both Australia and India have explicitly described their naval buildups as responses, at least in part, to
China's naval buildup. In contrast, the U.S. submarine fleet is projected to continue shrinking through
2028, further limiting the U.S. ability to shape and influence events in the Pacific. The U.S. attack
submarine serves an important part in establishing sea control and supremacy, and it is not
interchangeable with other assets. Its unique capabilities make it a force multiplier and allow it to
"punch above its weight." To protect U.S. interests in East Asia and the Pacific, and to support and
reassure U.S. allies, the U.S. must halt and then reverse the decline of its submarine fleet as a critical
component of a broader policy to maintain the military balance in the Pacific.
Budget cuts destroy readiness
Ron Ault 13, Executive Assistant to the President for Metal Trades Department, AFL-CIO, “Navy Budget
Cuts Sinking America’s Military Readiness,” Feb 15 2013,
http://www.metaltrades.org/index.cfm?zone=/unionactive/view_blog_post.cfm&blogID=1390&postID=
6618
While many in Washington are focused on the rapidly-approaching March 1st sequestration deadline, few seem to be paying much attention to the massive
cuts that will go into effect this week across our military – cuts that will have an equally devastating impact on our
economy and security.¶ As the result of the continuing resolution (CR) that was agreed upon in the final hours of 2012, a deal that averted the so-called fiscal
cliff, the U.S. Navy was forced to accept $6.3 billion in cuts for the remainder of the force’s Fiscal Year 2013 (FY13) budget. If sequestration goes into effect, that
number could grow to $10 billion.¶ As the representative of 80,000 workers employed at U.S. shipyards and naval bases – workers who take great pride in the role
they play in supporting our military – I would like to shed some light on the severity and senselessness of the Navy budget cuts and implore the 113th Congress to
take prudent and expeditious action to avoid further Defense spending cuts in FY13. ¶ Lawmakers
have already taken a hatchet to the
Defense budget; we simply cannot sustain any further cuts this year.¶ The $6.3 billion in Navy budget
reductions cut too deeply . For example, Navy Fleet Commanders have been ordered to cancel 3rd and 4th Quarter
surface ship maintenance. That’s a very tall order considering our shipyards are already fully loaded with
high priority work on extremely tight schedules to support fleet deployment. Once scheduled maintenance on a
ship is missed, there is no capacity to make it up later without causing delays elsewhere. The well-oiled
machine breaks down.
With the cuts contained in the CR alone, it is conceivable that aircraft
carriers, destroyers, nuclear
submarines, and other Navy vessels would be tied up at piers awaiting critical repairs without the
ability to move , much less support our national defense. If we allow our fleet to collect barnacles in harbor for six
months, we would significantly disrupt our military’s access to the ships they need to defend our
country.
Specifically wrecks undersea dominance
Hugh Lessig 13, Daily Press, 9/12/13, “U.S. Navy: Budget challenges threaten submarine program,”
http://articles.dailypress.com/2013-09-12/news/dp-nws-forbes-submarine-hearing-20130912_1_u-snavy-submarines-missile
The U.S. military touts its submarine program as an unqualified success, yet the fleet is expected to drop
by nearly 30 percent in coming years and one Hampton Roads lawmaker wants to pull money from outside the Navy's shipbuilding
program to ease the pressure on one key program.¶ Two Navy leaders on Thursday told a panel chaired by Rep. Randy Forbes, RChesapeake, that more budget cuts would dull the edge of the submarine program , where the U.S. enjoys
a distinct advantage over other superpowers. Forbes chairs the House Armed Service's subcommittee on sea power.¶ About 2,300 jobs
at Newport News Shipbuilding are tied to the U.S. submarine program. The shipyard builds them in partnership with General Dynamics Electric
Boat of Groton, Conn.¶ The U.S. military has three types of nuclear-powered submarines. First are the smaller fastattack submarines that fall primarily in two classes, the older Los Angeles class and the newer Virginia class. Last week, the Navy commissioned
the newest Virginia class sub at Naval Station Norfolk.¶ The second type are Ohio class ballistic missile submarines that roam the seas and
provide a nuclear strike capability.¶ The third type is an offshoot of the second: When the Cold War ended, the U.S. converted four of those
ballistic missile submarines into guided-cruise missile submarines.¶
All three types are scheduled to drop , said Rear Adm.
Richard P. Breckenridge and Rear Adm. David C. Johnson. who testified before the Forbes panel.
The huge national debt means cuts will continue---guarantees an ineffective navy
Seth Cropsey 10, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy,
“The US Navy in Distress,” Strategic Analysis Vol. 34, No. 1, January 2010, 35–45,
http://navsci.berkeley.edu/ma20/Class%208/Class%2012.%20Sea%20Power.%20%20Cropsey_US_Navy
_In_Distress.pdf
The most tangible result is the continued withering of the US
combat fleet which today numbers about 280 ships. This is less
than half the size achieved towards the end of the Reagan administration buildup and 33 ships short of
what the Navy says it needs to fulfill today’s commitments. Nothing suggests a substantive reversal . Most signs point
to additional decline over the long term. Four years ago the Navy’s projected fleet size had dwindled to 313 ships. There it has stayed . . . until May of
this year when a senior Navy budget official, commenting on the proposed 2010 budget, suggested that the new Quadrennial Review now
underway at the Defense Department will likely result in a smaller projected fleet size. Huge increases in current and
projected national debt and the vulnerability of the military budget to help offset it increase the chance
that without compelling events the nation’s sea services will experience additional and perhaps drastic reductions .
National indebtedness will grow from its current ratio of 40 per cent of GDP to 80 per cent of GDP in a decade. Servicing
this will cripple the nation’s ability to modernize and increase a powerful world-class fleet or drive us deeper into a
yawning financial hole.
1NC—No War (Escalation)
No escalation to great power war--empirics
Mueller 11(John, “Embracing threatlessness: ¶ Reassessing U.S. military spending, John Mueller is Adjunct Professor
of Political Science and Senior Research Scientist at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies.,
https://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/American%20Grand%20Strategy%20and%20Seapower%202011%20Conf
erence%20Report%20CNA.pdf)
A sensible place to begin the consideration is with an examination of the prospects for a ¶ major war like
World War II. ¶ Although there is no physical reason why such a war cannot recur, it has become fairly ¶
commonplace to regard such wars as obsolescent, if not completely obsolete.4¶ Leading or ¶ developed
countries continue to have disputes, but, reversing the course of several millennia, ¶ none seems likely
seriously to envision war as a sensible method for resolving any of these ¶ disputes. ¶ Europe, once the
most warlike of continents, has taken the lead in this. It was on May 15, ¶ 1984, that the major countries of the
developed world had managed to remain at peace with ¶ each other for the longest continuous stretch since
the days of the Roman Empire.5¶ That ¶ rather amazing record has now been further extended, and today one
has to go back more ¶ than two millennia to find a longer period in which the Rhine remained uncrossed by
armies ¶ with hostile intent.6¶ ¶ “All historians agree,” observed Leo Tolstoy in War and Peace in 1869, “that
states express ¶ their conflicts in wars and that as a direct result of greater or lesser success in war the political
¶ strength of states and nations increases or decreases.”7¶ Whatever historians may currently ¶ think, it
certainly appears that this notion has become substantially obsolete. Prestige now ¶ 4¶ For an early
examination of this proposition, see John Mueller, Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence ¶ of Major
War (New York: Free Press, 1989; reprinted and updated edition, edupublisher.com, 2009). ¶ See also
Fettweis, Dangerous Times. ¶ 5¶ Paul Schroeder, “Does Murphy’s Law Apply to History?” Wilson Quarterly,
New Year’s 1985: 88. The ¶ previous record, he notes, was chalked up during the period from the end of the
Napoleonic Wars ¶ in 1815 to the effective beginning of the Crimean War in 1854. The period between the
conclusion ¶ of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871 and the outbreak of World War I in 1914 – marred by a
major ¶ war in Asia between Russia and Japan in 1904 – was an even longer era of peace among major ¶
European countries. That record was broken on November 8, 1988. On some of these issues, see ¶ also Evan
Luard, War in International Society (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1986), 395-99; ¶ and James J.
Sheehan, Where Have All the Soldiers Gone? The Transformation of Modern Europe (Boston: ¶ Houghton
Mifflin, 2008). ¶ 6¶ Bradford de Long, “Let Us Give Thanks (Wacht am Rhein Department), November 12,
2004, ¶ www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004-2_arcives/000536.html. ¶ 7¶ (New York: Norton,
1966), 1145. 168¶ 49¶ comes from other factors, such as making economic progress and putting on a good ¶
Olympics. ¶ The Cold War did supply a set of crises and peripheral wars that engaged leading countries ¶ from
time to time, and it was commonly envisioned that doom would inevitably emerge from ¶ the rivalry. Thus,
political scientist Hans J. Morgenthau in 1979 said: “In my opinion the ¶ world is moving ineluctably towards
a third world war – a strategic nuclear war. I do not ¶ believe that anything can be done to prevent it. The
international system is simply too ¶ unstable to survive for long.”8¶ At about the same time, John Hackett
penned his distinctly ¶ non-prescient book The Third World War: August 1985.¶ 9¶ Such anxieties obviously
proved to be ¶ over-wrought, but to the degree that they were correctly focused on a potential cause of
¶ major war, that specific impetus no longer exists. ¶ World War III, then, continues to be the greatest
nonevent in human history, and that happy ¶ condition seems very likely to continue. There have been
wars throughout history, of course, ¶ but the remarkable absence of the species’ worst expression for twothirds of a century (and ¶ counting) strongly suggests that realities may have changed, and perhaps
permanently. ¶ Accordingly it may be time to consider that spending a lot of money preparing for a ¶
“conceivable” eventuality – or fantasy – that is of ever-receding likelihood is a highly ¶ questionable
undertaking.
1NC – South China Sea
No South China conflict-engagement will check miscalc and mistrust
Thayer, New South Wales emeritus professor, 2013
(Carlyle, “Why China and the US won’t go to war over the South China Sea”, 5-13,
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-southchina-sea/, ldg)
China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea is challenging US primacy in the Asia Pacific. Even before Washington announced its official policy of
rebalancing its force posture to the Asia Pacific, the United States had undertaken steps to strengthen its military posture by deploying more nuclear attack
submarines to the region and negotiating arrangements with Australia to rotate Marines through Darwin.Since then, the United States has deployed Combat Littoral
Ships to Singapore and is negotiating new arrangements for greater military access to the Philippines. But
these developments do not
presage armed conflict between China and the United States. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has
been circumspect in its involvement in South China Sea territorial disputes, and the United States has
been careful to avoid being entrapped by regional allies in their territorial disputes with China. Armed conflict between
appears unlikely . Another, more probable, scenario is that both
countries will find a modus vivendi enabling them to collaborate to maintain security in the South China
Sea. The Obama administration has repeatedly emphasised that its policy of rebalancing to Asia is not directed at containing China. For example, Admiral Samuel
China and the United States in the South China Sea
J. Locklear III, Commander of the US Pacific Command, recently stated, ‘there has also been criticism that the Rebalance is a strategy of containment. This is not the
case … it is a strategy of collaboration and cooperation’. However, a review of past US–China military-to-military interaction indicates that an agreement to jointly
manage security in the South China Sea is unlikely because of continuing strategic mistrust between the two countries. This is also because the currents of
regionalism are growing stronger. As such, a third
scenario is more likely than the previous two: that China and the
United States will maintain a relationship of cooperation and friction. In this scenario, both countries
work separately to secure their interests through multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Defence Ministers’
Meeting Plus and the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. But they also continue to engage each other on points of mutual
interest. The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three established bilateral mechanisms: Defense
Consultative Talks, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. On the one hand, these multilateral
mechanisms reveal very little about US–China military relations. Military-to-military contacts between the two countries have gone through repeated cycles of
cooperation and suspension, meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-to-military contacts from their political and strategic settings. On the
other hand, the
channels have accomplished the following: continuing exchange visits by high-level defence
officials; regular Defense Consultation Talks; continuing working-level discussions under the MMCA; agreement on the ‘7-point consensus’; and no serious naval
incidents since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. They have also helped to ensure continuing exchange visits by senior military officers; the initiation of a Strategic
Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic & Economic Dialogue process; agreement to hold meetings between coast guards; and agreement on a
new working group to draft principles to establish a framework for military-to-military cooperation. So
the bottom line is that, despite
ongoing frictions in their relationship, the United States and China will continue engaging with each
other. Both sides understand that military-to-military contacts are a critical component of bilateral
engagement. Without such interaction there is a risk that mistrust between the two militaries could spill
over and have a major negative impact on bilateral relations in general. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the
absence of greater transparency in military-to-military relations. In sum, Sino-American relations in the South China Sea are
more likely to be characterised by cooperation and friction than
scenario, armed conflict.
a modus vivendi of collaboration or,
a worst-case
2NC – South China Sea
No south china sea conflict-china would never engage
Carlson, Cornell government professor, 2013
(Allen, “China Keeps the Peace at Sea”, 2-21, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139024/allencarlson/china-keeps-the-peace-at-sea?page=show, ldg)
The fundamentals
of Deng's grand economic strategy are still revered in Beijing. But any war in the region
would erode the hard-won, and precariously held, political capital that China has gained in the last
several decades. It would also disrupt trade relations, complicate efforts to promote the yuan as an international currency, and
send shock waves through the country's economic system at a time when it can ill afford them. There is thus little
reason to think that China is readying for war with Japan. At the same time, the specter of rising Chinese nationalism,
although often seen as a promoter of conflict, further limits the prospects for armed engagement. This is because
Beijing will try to discourage nationalism if it fears it may lose control or be forced by popular sentiment to take an action it
deems unwise. Ever since the Tiananmen Square massacre put questions about the Chinese Communist Party's right to
govern before the population, successive generations of Chinese leaders have carefully negotiated a
balance between promoting nationalist sentiment and preventing it from boiling over. In the process, they
cemented the legitimacy of their rule. A war with Japan could easily upset that balance by inflaming nationalism that
could blow back against China's leaders. Consider a hypothetical scenario in which a uniformed Chinese military member is killed during a
firefight with Japanese soldiers. Regardless of the specific circumstances, the casualty would create a new martyr in China and, almost as quickly, catalyze popular
protests against Japan. Demonstrators would call for blood, and if the government (fearing economic instability) did not extract enough, citizens would agitate
against Beijing itself. Those in Zhongnanhai, the Chinese leadership compound in Beijing, would find themselves between a rock and a hard place. It is possible that
Xi lost track of these basic facts during the fanfare of his rise to power and in the face of renewed Japanese assertiveness. It is also possible that the Chinese state is
more rotten at the core than is understood. That is, party elites believe that a diversionary war is the only way to hold on to power -- damn the economic and social
consequences. But Xi
does not seem blind to the principles that have served Beijing so well over the last few
decades. Indeed, although he recently warned unnamed others about infringing upon China's "national core interests" during a foreign policy speech to
members of the Politburo, he also underscored China's commitment to "never pursue development at the cost of
sacrificing other country's interests" and to never "benefit ourselves at others' expense or do harm to
any neighbor." Of course, wars do happen -- and still could in the East China Sea. Should either side draw first blood through accident or an unexpected
move, Sino-Japanese relations would be pushed into terrain that has not been charted since the middle of the last century. However, understanding
that
war would be a no-win situation, China has avoided rushing over the brink. This relative restraint seems to
have surprised everyone. But it shouldn't. Beijing will continue to disagree with Tokyo over the sovereign status of the islands, and will
not budge in its negotiating position over disputed territory. However, it cannot
take the risk of going to war over a few rocks in
the sea. On the contrary, in the coming months it will quietly seek a way to shelve the dispute in return
for securing regional stability, facilitating economic development, and keeping a lid on the Pandora's box
of rising nationalist sentiment. The ensuing peace, while unlikely to be deep, or especially conducive to improving Sino-Japanese relations, will be
enduring.
China won’t get in a naval conflict
Holmes, Naval War College strategy professor, 2012
(James, “The Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012”, 8-20,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/20/the_sino_japanese_naval_war_of_2012?page=0,1,
DOA: 10-16-12, ldg)
Whoever forges sea, land, and air forces into the sharpest weapon of sea combat stands a good chance of prevailing. That could be Japan if its political and military
leaders think creatively, procure the right hardware, and arrange it on the map for maximum effect. After
all, Japan doesn’t need to defeat
China’s military in order to win a showdown at sea, because it already holds the contested real estate;
all it needs to do is deny China access. If Northeast Asian seas became a no-man’s land but Japanese forces hung on, the political victory would
be Tokyo’s. Japan also enjoys the luxury of concentrating its forces at home, whereas the PLA Navy is dispersed into three fleets spread along China’s lengthy
coastline. Chinese commanders face a dilemma: If they
concentrate forces to amass numerical superiority during hostilities with
risk leaving other interests uncovered. It would hazardous for Beijing to leave, say, the South
China Sea unguarded during a conflict in the northeast. And finally, Chinese leaders would be forced to consider how
far a marine war would set back their sea-power project. China has staked its economic and diplomatic
future in large part on a powerful oceangoing navy. In December 2006, President Hu Jintao ordered PLA commanders to construct “a
Japan, they
powerful people’s navy” that could defend the nation’s maritime lifelines — in particular sea lanes that connect Indian Ocean energy exporters with users in China
takes lots of ships. If it lost much of the fleet in a Sino-Japanese clash — even in a winning
effort — Beijing could see its momentum toward world-power status reversed in an afternoon. Here’s hoping China’s
— “at any time.” That
political and military leaders understand all this. If so, the Great Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012 won’t be happening outside these pages.
1NC—No Taiwan War
No China-Taiwan conflict—Chinese democratization and economic
interdependence
Mueller 11(John, “Embracing threatlessness: ¶ Reassessing U.S. military spending, John Mueller is Adjunct Professor
of Political Science and Senior Research Scientist at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies.,
https://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/American%20Grand%20Strategy%20and%20Seapower%202011%20Conf
erence%20Report%20CNA.pdf)
China’s oft-stated desire to incorporate (or re-incorporate) Taiwan into its territory and its ¶ apparent design on other offshore areas do create
problems – ones that world leaders ¶ elsewhere should sensibly keep their eyes on, and ones that could “conceivably” lead to an ¶ armed conflict to
which American military forces might appear relevant. But it is also ¶ conceivable, and far more likely, that the whole problem
will be worked out over the course ¶ of time without armed conflict. The Chinese strongly stress that their
perspective on this ¶ issue is very long term and that they have a historic sense of patience. Indeed, if China ¶
eventually becomes a true democracy, Taiwan might even join up voluntarily or, failing that, ¶ some sort of legalistic
face-saving agreement might eventually be worked out. Above all, ¶ China is increasing becoming a trading
state, in Richard Rosecrance’s phrase.11 Its integration ¶ into the world economy and its increasing dependence on it
for economic development and ¶ for the consequent acquiescent contentment of the Chinese people is likely
to keep the ¶ country reasonable. Armed conflict over the issue would be extremely – even overwhelmingly ¶
– costly to the country, and, in particular, to the regime in charge, and Chinese leaders seem ¶ to realize this.
2NC—No Taiwan War
China would not attack Taiwan—it destroys is position globally and there is no
certainty that it would be successful
Keck 13(Zachary, December 24, Why China Won't Attack Taiwan, Zachary Keck is Associate Editor of The
Diplomat., The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/why-china-wont-attack-taiwan/)
Although the trend lines are undoubtedly working in China’s favor, it is ultimately extremely unlikely
that China will try to seize Taiwan by force. Furthermore, should it try to do this, it is unlikely to
succeed.¶ Even assuming China’s military capabilities are great enough to prevent the U.S. from
intervening, there are two forces that would likely be sufficient to deter China from invading Taiwan.
The first and least important is the dramatic impact this would have on how countries in the region and
around the world would view such a move. Globally, China seizing Taiwan would result in it being
permanently viewed as a malicious nation. Regionally, China’s invasion of Taiwan would diminish any
lingering debate over how Beijing will use its growing power. Every regional power would see its own
fate in Taiwan. Although Beijing would try to reassure countries by claiming that Taiwan was part of
China already, and thus the operation was a domestic stability one, this narrative would be convincing to
none of China’s neighbors. Consequently, Beijing would face an environment in which each state was
dedicated to cooperating with others to balance against Chinese power.¶ But the more important
deterrent for China would be the uncertainty of success.
No escalation to China-US war
Lowther 14(William, Febuary 20, Independence ‘will not happen’, William Lowther is a staff writer for the
Taipei Times, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/02/20/2003583939/1)
In a fight over Taiwan, Mearsheimer says, US policymakers would be reluctant to launch major strikes
against Chinese forces in China, for fear it might precipitate nuclear escalation.¶ “The US is not going to
escalate to the nuclear level if Taiwan is being overrun by China. The stakes are not high enough to risk a
general thermonuclear war. Taiwan is not Japan, or even South Korea,” he says.¶ He says Taiwan is an
especially dangerous flashpoint, which could easily precipitate a Sino-US war that is not in the US’ interest.¶
US policymakers understand that the fate of Taiwan is a matter of great concern to China and there is a
“reasonable chance” US policymakers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to
abandon Taiwan and allow China to coerce it into accepting unification, Mearsheimer says.
Homeland Security
Terrorism
Better detection fails- terrorists can hide their HEU from radiation detectors.
de Rugy 05 (Veronique, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, “Is Port
Security Spending Making Us Safer?,”
http://cip.management.dal.ca/publications/Is%20Port%20Security%20Spending%20Making%20Us%20Safer.pdf)
Considering the extreme difficulty of interdicting drug smugglers, it seems that determined smugglers
with a nuclear device would have little trouble circumventing the nation’s border protection and
control, particularly because they would be able to leverage the techniques used successfully by drug
smugglers. Further lowering their probability of being caught is the fact that, according to a series of
experts testifying 11 before Congress in July 2005, terrorists could easily shield the highly enriched
uranium and avoid detection from radiation detectors. 34
Port security fails to solve terrorism
a. Other targets besides ports
Shie 04, Tamara Renee Shie, [former visiting fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, research assistant at the Institute
for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University (NDU) in Washington, D.C. ], “Ships and Terrorists –
Thinking Beyond Port Security”, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/pac0445a.pdf
Unfortunately, relying on these initiatives alone creates a false sense of security. They are inadequate to
deter terrorists from pursuing many maritime targets. The principal limitation of these two initiatives is
their specific focus on the security of major transshipment ports. Though these are essential to
international trade, securing only these ports will not protect them or a region from terrorist attacks.
First, the emphasis on upgrading the security of major ports neglects the fact that these represent only a
single link in the transportation chain. A shipping container may pass through some 15 physical locations
and some two dozen individuals and/or companies while traveling from departure point to destination.
Because containers are only searched at the major port, there is no guarantee they cannot be waylaid in
route after that point. Second, the CSI conducts security checks only on U.S. bound containers.
Therefore even if a tampered container arrives at a major port, if it is destined for a port other than the
U.S., it is more likely to escape notice. Containers between the major ports of Singapore and Shenzhen
or Pusan and Hong Kong are not subject to CSI requirements. Yet terrorist assaults on U.S. ships or
interests can occur outside the U.S. Third, as major ports increase security, terrorists will look for other
maritime targets or other means to target those ports. Terrorists are increasingly aiming at soft targets.
Attacking maritime targets has never been particularly easy, often requiring a greater sophistication in
planning, training, and coordination than those aimed at many land-based facilities. This is why maritime
terrorism is rather rare, and why terrorists are less likely to attack a more secure major port. Yet in
considering maritime terrorist threat scenarios – using a ship to smuggle goods or weapons, sinking a
vessel in a major shipping thoroughfare, using a ship as a weapon, or even targeting maritime vessels –
none require access to a major port or a shipping container to carry out a strike. There remain numerous
small ports and small vessels not covered under the new security initiatives. The ISPS Code for instance
only covers ships of 500 tons or more and port facilities that serve large international-bound vessels.
The Code would not have protected the USS Cole.
b. Effective nuclear detection is impossible
Rugy 07, Veronique de Rugy, [senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University],“Is Port Security
Funding Making Us Safer?”, MIT Center for International Studies, November 2007,
http://web.mit.edu/cis/pdf/Audit_11_07_derugy.pdf.
The Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) received $535 million in 2007.14 DNDO’s mission
addresses a broad spectrum of radiological and nuclear protective measures, but is focused exclusively
on domestic nuclear detection.15 The fundamental problem is that DNDO relies on radiation portal
monitors that have been proven unable to detect shielded nuclear material essentially rendering them
useless.16 Besides, even if the system could detect every dangerous item, it is ineffective unless the
nuclear material is brought through the fixed ports of entry where the monitors are located. With
thousand of miles of unguarded borders—and no cost effective way to address the issue—smugglers
can easily find positions to bring illicit goods inside the country. Consider the country’s long standing
War on Drugs and the inability to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the country.
c. Least cost-effective way
Rugy 07, Veronique de Rugy, [senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University],“Is Port Security
Funding Making Us Safer?”, MIT Center for International Studies, November 2007,
http://web.mit.edu/cis/pdf/Audit_11_07_derugy.pdf.
A close look at port security allocation decisions indicates that spending occurs without regard for risk
analysis let alone cost-benefit analysis, leading to a large array of misallocated spending. For instance,
why should the highest priorities—preventing terrorists from acquiring nuclear devices and material—
receive less money than much less cost-effective policies such as nuclear detection in the ports or postdisaster response activities. Because it rests mainly on domestic detection of WMD in ports—a task that
is not clear could be achieved—the port security model offers almost no value to the nation.6 Even if we
could seal our ports, America wouldn’t be safe. The only effective way to prevent nuclear attacks is to
deny terrorists access to weapons and material. Without nuclear materials there can be no nuclear
bombs.
d. Vulnerability between stops
Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz 2006- Director
of
the
Economy
Program
at
the
Public
Policy
Institute
of
California and Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
(Protecting the Nation’s Seaports: Balancing Security and Cost, Pg 30-31,
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/r_606jhr.pdf)
In Chapter 4, Stephen S. Cohen considers the security threat that¶ the container creates for the maritime
transportation system. Each day,¶ tens of thousands of containers flow through U.S. ports, largely¶
undisturbed in their trip from one part of the world to another. In¶ general, containers are loaded and
sealed, or perhaps only closed and not¶ sealed, well inland of a port. They are then transferred by truck,
or truck¶ and train, to a seaport, where they are loaded onto a ship. Following the¶ sea journey, they are
transferred to another truck, and perhaps another¶ train, for a further journey over land to the ultimate
destination.¶ Each container trip to the United States has, on average, 17 different¶ stops, or points at
which the container’s journey temporarily halts.14¶ The adage “goods at rest are goods at risk” readily
applies to the terrorist¶ threat. The container will be at rest at any point in the journey that¶ involves a
change in mode of transportation. While at rest, the container¶ is vulnerable to thieves and terrorists
alike. Providing port security¶ therefore involves closely scrutinizing activities not only at the port but at¶
points all along the shipping chain. The truck driver picking up the¶ container at the U.S. port, often
poorly paid and possibly an illegal¶ immigrant not well integrated into U.S. society, may himself
represent a¶ vulnerability in the system.¶ The issue is not merely that something could be put in a
container¶ illicitly for an attack on the port where it is unloaded but that nuclear weapons or radiological
material could be inserted, shipped to the¶ United States, moved inland without inspection, and then
unloaded into¶ the hands of terrorists. These objects could then be transported for use¶ in major
population centers—perhaps better targets than a port complex.¶ Likewise, explosive material could be
put in several containers and then¶ detonated at or near port complexes around the same time, leading
to a¶ security reaction that could shut down the entire maritime transportation¶ system until officials,
and port workers and management, were certain¶ the threat had passed.¶ There is no way to completely
inspect all of the millions of¶ containers entering the United States. They are about as large as a fullsize¶
moving van and are often tightly packed. Inspecting each¶ thoroughly would bring commerce to a halt,
exactly the kind of reaction¶ that terrorists hope to generate.
The risk of nuclear terrorism is vanishingly small -- terrorists must succeed at each of
twenty plus stages -- failing at one means zero risk
Mueller, ‘10 [John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for
International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from
the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. -- UCLA, “Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from
Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda,” Oxford University Press]
.Even
those who decidedly disagree with such scary-sounding, if somewhat elusive, prognostications
about nuclear terrorism often come out seeming like they more or less agree. In his Atomic Bazaar, William
Langewiesche spends a great deal of time and effort assessing the process by means of which a terrorist group could come up with a
bomb. Unlike
Allison—and, for that matter, the considerable bulk of accepted opinion —he concludes that it
"remains very, very unlikely . It's a possibility, but unlikely." Also: The best information is that no one has gotten
anywhere near this. I mean, if you look carefully and practically at this process, you see that it is an enormous undertaking full of risks for the would-be terrorists. And
so far there is no public case, at least known, of any appreciable amount of weapons-grade HEU [highly enriched uranium] disappearing. And that's the first step. If you don't have
that, you don't have anything. The first of these bold and unconventional declarations comes from a book discussion telecast in June 2007 on C-SPAN and the second from an interview on National Public Radio. Judgments in the book itself, however, while consistent with such conclusions, are expressed more ambiguously, even coyly: "at the extreme is the
possibility, entirely real, that one or two nuclear weapons will pass into the hands of the new stateless guerrillas, the jihad-ists, who offer none of the retaliatory targets that have so far
underlain the nuclear peace" or "if a would-be nuclear terrorist calculated the odds, he would have to admit that they are stacked against^ffen," but they are "not impossible."5 The
previous chapter arrayed a lengthy set of obstacles confront-: v ,„ ing the would-be atomic terrorist—often making use in the process of Langewlesche's excellent reporting. Those who
warn about the likelihood of a terrorist bomb contend that a terrorist group could, if often with great difficulty, surmount each obstacle—that doing so in each case is, in
Langewiesche's phrase, "not impossible."6 But it is vital to point out that, while it may be "not impossible" to surmount each individual step, the likelihood that a group
the odds are "stacked against" the terrorists,
as well as other material, helps us evaluate the many ways such a
quest—in his words, "an enormous undertaking full of risks"— could fail. The odds, indeed, are stacked
against the terrorists, perhaps massively so. In fact, the likelihood a terrorist group will come up with an
atomic bomb seems to be vanishingly small . ARRAYING THE BARRIERS Assuming terrorists have some
desire for the bomb (an assumption ques-tioned in the next chapter), fulfillment of that desire is obviously another
matter. Even the very alarmed Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier contend that the atomic terrorists' task "would clearly
be among the most difficult types of attack to carry out" or "one of the most difficult missions a terrorist group could
could surmount a series of them could quickly approach impossibility. If
what are they? Lange-wiesche's discussion,
hope to try" But, stresses the CIA's George Tenet, a terrorist atomic bomb is "possible" or "not beyond the realm of possibility." In his
excellent discussion of the issue, Michael Levi ably catalogues a wide array of difficulties confronting the would-be
atomic terrorist, adroitly points out that "terrorists must succeed at every stage, but the defense needs
to succeed only once ," sensibly warns against preoccupation with worst-case scenarios, and pointedly formulates "Murphy's Law
of Nuclear Terrorism: What can go wrong might go wrong." Nevertheless, he holds nuclear terrorism to be a "genuine possibility," and
concludes that a good defensive strategy can merely "tilt the odds in our favor."7 Accordingly, it might be useful to take a stab
at estimating just how "difficult" or "not impossible" the atomic terrorists' task, in aggregate, is— that is, how
far from the fringe of the "realm of possibility" it might be, how "genuine" the possibilities are, how tilted the odds actually are. After
all, lots of things are "not impossible." It is "not impossible" that those legendary monkeys with
typewriters could eventually output Shakespeare.8 Or it is "not impossible"—that is, there is a "genuine possibility"—
that a colliding meteor or comet could destroy the earth, that Vladimir Putin or the British could decide one
morning to launch a few nuclear weapons at Ohio, that an underwater volcano could erupt to cause a
civilization-ending tidal wave, or that Osama bin Laden could convert to Judaism, declare himself to be the
Messiah, and fly in a gaggle of mafioso hit men from Rome to have himself publicly crucified.9 As suggested, most
discussions of atomic terrorism deal in a rather piecemeal fashion with the subject—focusing separately on individual tasks such as
procuring HEU or assembling a device or transporting it. However, as the Gilmore Commission, a special advisory panel to the president
and Congress, stresses, setting off a nuclear device capable of producing mass destruction presents
"Herculean challenges," requiring that a whole series of steps be accomplished: obtaining enough fissile
material, designing a weapon "that will bring that mass together in a tiny fraction of a second" and figuring out some
way to deliver the thing. And it emphasizes that these merely constitute "the minimum requirements."
If each is not fully met, the result is not simply a less powerful weapon, but one that can't produce any
significant nuclear yield at all or can't be delivered.10 Following this perspective, an approach that seems appropriate is to catalogue
the barriers that must be overcome by a terrorist group in order to carry out the task of producing, transporting, and then successfully
detonating an improvised nuclear device, an explosive that, as Allison acknowledges, would be "large, cumbersome, unsafe, unreliable,
unpredictable, and inefficient." Table 13.1 attempts to do this, and it arrays some 20 of these— all of which must be surmounted by the
atomic aspirant. Actually, it would be quite possible to come up with a longer list: in the interests of keeping the catalogue of hurdles
down to a reasonable number, some of the entries are actually collections of tasks and could be divided into two or three or more. For
example, number 5 on the list requires that heisted highly enriched uranium be neither a scam nor part of a sting nor of inadequate
quality due to insider incompetence, but this hurdle could as readily be rendered as three separate ones. In contemplating the task before
them, woixftlsbe atomic terrorists effectively must go through an exercise that looks much like this. If and when they do so, they are
likely to find the prospects daunting and accordingly uninspiring or even terminally dispiriting. "
Economy
Terrorist attacks have a minimal effect on the economy
a. Ports aren’t key and empirics disprove
Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz 2006- Director
of
the
Economy
Program
at
the
Public
Policy
Institute
of
California and Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
(Protecting the Nation’s Seaports: Balancing Security and Cost, Pg 30-31,
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/r_606jhr.pdf)
In Chapter 2, Edward E. Leamer and Christopher Thornberg argue¶ that the actual costs of an attack on
the Los Angeles–Long Beach port¶ complex may not be as high as many fear. For example, if a port is¶
closed, many shippers will reroute their shipments through other ports.¶ In addition, displaced workers
will seek alternative employment. As a result, the economy will adjust. Some output will be lost, but it
may be¶ so small in magnitude that it will not reveal itself in data that track¶ national or even regional
macroeconomic trends.¶ The authors provide examples of other disruptions that might have¶ caused
severe economic damage but did not, such as the terrorist attacks¶ of September 11, 2001. Consumer
spending fell immediately after the¶ attacks but then rebounded sharply at the end of 2001, growing at
an¶ unprecedented, seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7 percent. Likewise,¶ although retail sales fell
immediately after the attacks, they returned to¶ trend in November, only two months later. Some
sectors did suffer,¶ most notably the airline industry, which had already been in deep¶ trouble before the
end of the technology boom in early 2001. But¶ consumer spending actually increased, suggesting that
people reallocated¶ the money that they would have spent on airline travel to other forms of¶
consumption. Similarly, the authors argue that other disruptions such as¶ hurricanes, earthquakes, and
even labor disputes at seaports did have¶ immediate negative economic effects but that these effects
dissipated¶ quickly as the economy adjusted. The message in this is that most such¶ disruptions lead to
business being delayed rather than business being¶ cancelled, which in turn results in much less
economic harm than would¶ be expected.
b. The economy’s resilience and excess physical capacity checks back
Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz 2006- Director
of
the
Economy
Program
at
the
Public
Policy
Institute
of
California and Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
(Protecting the Nation’s Seaports: Balancing Security and Cost, Pg 67-69,
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/r_606jhr.pdf)
A cursory look would seem to portend a dramatic, dangerous¶ scenario, but a closer look at the facts
suggests otherwise. From an¶ input-output perspective, a wide variety of holes would be quickly¶
created in the flow of production that would seem to lead to a very sharp¶ downturn in economic
activity. But our economy is not a mechanical¶ system; it is an organic self-healing system, much like that
of a human¶ being: Large injuries take time to heal, but for the most part they do¶ eventually heal. To
continue the analogy, a port attack is only a cut on the arm—quickly healed with little noticeable effect
on the day-to-day¶ functioning of the person.¶ Although the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
certainly¶ represent a primary infrastructure target in the United States, a complete¶ shutdown of the
ports is highly unlikely as a direct result of some¶ physical attack. There are two reasons for this: the
sheer physical scale of¶ the facilities and the large amount of excess physical capacity (as opposed¶ to
human capital capacity) currently in place. As shown in the port map¶ on p. xxiii, the two facilities take
up approximately 12 square miles of¶ space in a six-by-four-mile area. The complex is broken into a
number¶ of separate yards, each completely controlled by a number of¶ independent, competing major
shipping lines, each of which have¶ substantial investment in the physical cranes and equipment on
their¶ property. Some of these yards are on Terminal Island, connected to the¶ mainland by three road
bridges and a railroad; others are on the¶ mainland itself. There are multiple access points into the area
as the map¶ shows, including two highways. Even if these roads were shut down, it¶ would be relatively
simple to construct a temporary bridge to the island,¶ and although it might have some implications for
the movement of¶ ships, no yard would be effectively isolated.3¶ Conventional weapons would be able
to damage, at best, only a¶ small portion of the complex, and would be unable to isolate a¶ substantial
portion of the port given the multiple access routes into and¶ out of the area. Even a so-called “dirty
bomb” could cover only one or¶ two square miles of area with radioactivity. Given the location on the¶
water, winds would quickly blow most of the radioactive materials away,¶ leaving even most of the
initially affected area quickly reusable. The only¶ known weapon that could take out an area of this size
for an extended¶ period of time would be a nuclear weapon. It seems more likely that the¶ target of such
a horrific device would be a densely populated area, not a¶ port.
Terrorism doesn’t affect growth
Haveman and Shatz 06 (Jon and Howard, Public Policy Institute of California, “Protecting the
Nation’s Seaports: Balancing Security and Cost”
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_606JHR.pdf)
September 11 Did Not Cause the 2001 Recession There is a strong tendency to blame too many
secondary effects on disasters. A good example of this phenomenon is found in the September 11
attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. In the days after the attacks, the rhetoric regarding the
potential effect on the national economy was both loud and wrong. The theory proposed by
many analysts and journalists was that psychologically fragile consumers in the United States
would suffer a crisis and stop spending, driving the economy into a deeper recession. Support
for this theory came from the first Gulf War, which supposedly caused a similar consumer crisis of
confidence that in turn drove us into a recession in 1990. For example, the Wall Street Journal reported
on September 13, 2001: “Past shocks to America’s sense of security, such as the Oklahoma City bombing
or the Gulf War, have prompted consumers to pull back temporarily on major purchases and other
discretionary spending,” said Richard Curtin, director of surveys of consumers at the University of
Michigan. He expects a similar reaction now, which could mean a rough time in the next several weeks
for the economy, which was already struggling with rising jobless rates and high consumer debt
burdens. “We were teetering on the edge, and this might well push us over,” said Mr. Curtin. This
hypothesis ignores the facts and completely overstates the psychological fragility of American
consumers. The 1990 recession was not caused by the first Gulf War at all. Residential
investment and expenditures on consumer durables typically are leading indicators of the
economy. When spending on these items begins to fall as a percentage of gross domestic product
(GDP), this is a strong indication of an underlying weakness in the economy that will create a recession.
Expenditures in these two sectors had dropped from 14 percent of GDP to below 12 percent
of GDP in the three years preceding the 1990 downturn—and before the Gulf war. There has
never been such a drop that did not eventually lead to a recession, with one exception—in 1967,
when the economy was wobbling, appearing to be on the verge of recession, the sharp increase in
spending for the Vietnam War propelled the economy forward. This was just the reverse of what Mr.
Curtin suggested.
Economic growth causes extinction – we should allow the collapse to occur
Barry 08 [Dr. Glen Barry – PhD in Land Resources from Wisconsin-Madison University, January 14, 2008,
“Economic Collapse and Global Ecology”, http://www.countercurrents.org/barry140108.htm]
Bright greens take the continued existence of a habitable Earth with viable, sustainable populations of
all species including humans as the ultimate truth and the meaning of life. Whether this is possible in a
time of economic collapse is crucially dependent upon whether enough ecosystems and resources
remain post collapse to allow humanity to recover and reconstitute sustainable, relocalized societies.It
may be better for the Earth and humanity's future that economic collapse comes sooner rather than
later, while more ecosystems and opportunities to return to nature's fold exist. Economic collapse will
be deeply wrenching -- part Great Depression, part African famine. There will be starvation and civil
strife, and a long period of suffering and turmoil.Many will be killed as balance returns to the Earth.
Most people have forgotten how to grow food and that their identity is more than what they own. Yet
there is some justice, in that those who have lived most lightly upon the land will have an easier time of
it, even as those super-consumers living in massive cities finally learn where their food comes from and
that ecology is the meaning of life. Economic collapse now means humanity and the Earth ultimately
survive to prosper again.¶ Human suffering -- already the norm for many, but hitting the currently
materially affluent -- is inevitable given the degree to which the planet's carrying capacity has been
exceeded. We are a couple decades at most away from societal strife of a much greater magnitude as
the Earth's biosphere fails. Humanity can take the bitter medicine now, and recover while emerging
better for it; or our total collapse can be a final, fatal death swoon.
Economic decline doesn’t cause war
Tir 10 [Jaroslav Tir - Ph.D. in Political Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and is an
Associate Professor in the Department of International Affairs at the University of Georgia, “Territorial
Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict”, The Journal of Politics, 2010, Volume 72:
413-425]
Empirical support for the economic growth rate is much weaker. The finding that poor economic
performance is associated with a higher likelihood of territorial conflict initiation is significant only
in Models 3–4.14 The weak results are not altogether surprising given the findings from prior
literature. In accordance with the insignificant relationships of Models 1–2 and 5–6, Ostrom and Job (1986), for example, note that the likelihood that a
U.S. President will use force is uncertain, as the bad economy might create incentives both to
divert the public’s attention with a foreign adventure and to focus on solving the economic
problem, thus reducing the inclination to act abroad. Similarly, Fordham (1998a, 1998b), DeRouen (1995),
and Gowa (1998) find no relation between a poor economy and U.S. use of force. Furthermore, Leeds and
Davis (1997) conclude that the conflict-initiating behavior of 18 industrialized democracies is unrelated to
economic conditions as do Pickering and Kisangani (2005) and Russett and Oneal (2001) in global studies. In
contrast and more in line with my findings of a significant relationship (in Models 3–4), Hess and Orphanides (1995), for example, argue that economic recessions are linked with
forceful action by an incumbent U.S. president. Furthermore, Fordham’s (2002) revision of Gowa’s (1998) analysis shows some effect of a bad economy and DeRouen and Peake
(2002) report that U.S. use of force diverts the public’s attention from a poor economy. Among cross-national studies, Oneal and Russett (1997) report that slow growth increases
the incidence of militarized disputes, as does Russett (1990)—but only for the United States; slow growth does not affect the behavior of other countries. Kisangani and Pickering
(2007) report some significant associations, but they are sensitive to model specification, while Tir and Jasinski (2008) find a clearer link between economic underperformance and
increased attacks on domestic ethnic minorities. While none of these works has focused on territorial diversions, my own inconsistent findings for economic growth fit well with the
mixed results reported in the literature.15 Hypothesis 1 thus receives strong support via the unpopularity variable but only weak support via the economic growth variable.
These results suggest that embattled leaders are much more likely to respond with territorial
diversions to direct signs of their unpopularity (e.g., strikes, protests, riots) than to general
background conditions such as economic malaise. Presumably, protesters can be distracted via territorial diversions while fixing the
economy would take a more concerted and prolonged policy effort. Bad economic conditions seem to motivate only the most serious, fatal territorial confrontations. This implies
that leaders may be reserving the most high-profile and risky diversions for the times when they are the most desperate, that is when their power is threatened both by signs of
discontent with their rule and by more systemic problems plaguing the country (i.e., an underperforming economy).
No impact to economic decline
D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science
Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in
Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.
In this analysis, we focus on using economic conditions to understand when rivalries are likely to escalate or
end. Rivalries are an appropriate set of cases to use when examining substitutability both because
leaders in rival states have clearly substitutable choices and because rivalries are a set of cases in which
externalization is a particularly plausible policy option.7 In particular, when confronted with domestic
problems, leaders in a rivalry have the clear alternatives of escalating the conflict with the rival to divert
attention or to work to settle the rivalry as a means of freeing up a substantial amount of resources that
can be directed toward solving internal problems. In the case of the diversion option, rivals provide
logical, believable actors for leaders to target; the presence of a clear rival may offer unstable elites a
particularly inviting target for hostile statements or actual conflict as necessary. The public and relevant
elites already consider the rival a threat or else the rivalry would not have continued for an extended
period; the presence of disputed issues also provides a casus belli with the rival that is always present.
Rivals also may provide a target where the possible costs and risks of externalization are relatively
controlled. If the goal is diversion, leaders willwant to divert attention without provoking an actual (and
expensive)war. Over the course of many confrontations, rival states may learn to anticipate response
patterns, leading to safer disputes or at least to leaders believing that they can control the risks of
conflict when they initiate a new confrontation. In sum, rivals provide good targets for domestically
challenged political leaders. This leads to our first hypothesis, which is as follows: Hypothesis 1: Poor
economic conditions lead to diversionary actions against the rival. Conflict settlement is also a distinct
route to dealing with internal problems that leaders in rivalries may pursue when faced with internal problems.
Military competition between states requires large amounts of resources, and rivals require even more
attention. Leaders may choose to negotiate a settlement that ends a rivalry to free up important resources that
may be reallocated to the domestic economy. In a “guns versus butter” world of economic trade-offs, when a
state can no longer afford to pay the expenses associated with competition in a rivalry, it is quite rational for
leaders to reduce costs by ending a rivalry. This gain (a peace dividend) could be achieved at any time by
ending a rivalry. However, such a gain is likely to be most important and attractive to leaders when internal
conditions are bad and the leader is seeking ways to alleviate active problems. Support for policy change away
from continued rivalry is more likely to develop when the economic situation sours and elites and masses are
looking for ways to improve a worsening situation. It is at these times that the pressure to cut military
investment will be greatest and that state leaders will be forced to recognize the difficulty of continuing to pay
for a rivalry. Among other things, this argument also encompasses the view that the cold war ended
because the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics could no longer compete economically with the United
States. Hypothesis 2: Poor economic conditions increase the probability of rivalry termination. Hypotheses 1
and 2 posit opposite behaviors in response to a single cause (internal economic problems). As such, they
demand a research design that can account for substitutability between them.
Water
Water Wars-Solvency
Scarcity drives middle eastern cooperation
Sikimic 11 [Simona, author for the daily star, Lebanon news. Jan. 21, 2011, “Water scarcity can be source for regional cooperation: report”
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2011/Jan-21/61157-water-scarcity-can-be-source-for-regional-cooperation-report.ashx#axzz36jugkuUs
//jweideman]
BEIRUT: Water scarcity in the region can be channeled for a common good and used to reduce, rather than
ignite conflict, an environmental report released Thursday has claimed. “The Blue Peace: Rethinking
Middle East Water” launched at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, proposes radical
cooperation between the six concerned states: Lebanon, Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Iraq
and Turkey, and envisages the neighbors setting up a mutual monitoring system to guarantee
collaboration and more equal partitioning of resources. “The social and economic development of nations depends on water
availability in terms of quantity and quality,” said Fadi Comair, the president of Mediterranean Network of River Basin
Organizations. “It holds a major place on the diplomatic agenda of the [six] governments,” Comair said. River
flows in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan have been depleted by 50 to 90 percent in the last 50 years alone, while the vital Jordan River, which acts as a water
source for five of the concerned countries, has decreased its discharge by over 90 percent from 1960, the report said. “This is a serious problem,” said Sundeep
Waslekar, the president of the India-based think tank Strategic Foresight Group, which coordinated the report’s compilation. “Especially as water demand is rising
and consumption has gone up from [an estimated] 10-15 percent 50 years ago to 37 percent now.” With consumer requirements predicted to increase to 50-60
percent over the next decade, further pressure will be put on ever-dwindling supplies, he said. But “hydrodiplomacy” as outlined in the report has the potential to
alleviate “conflicts on trans-boundary watercourse between riparian states [which] will intensify more and more, especially in the Middle East,” Comair added.
Some moves toward cooperation have already been made, especially between Syria and Lebanon, which
have signed two important accords to partition resources from the Orontes and Nahr al-Kabir rivers.
Trade
No Solvency-Alt cause
Too many alt causes – trade is declining in the SQ
IEC 09 (The International Economy is a specialized quarterly magazine covering global financial policy, economic trends, and international trade. Spring of 2009. “Collapse in World
Trade” from The Magazine of International Economic Policy. http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp09_WorldTrade.pdf July 8, 2014)
The collapse of trade since the summer of 2008 has¶ been absolutely terrifying, more so insofar as we
lack¶ an adequate understanding of its causes. Murky protectionism has played a role. Disruptions to
the supply of¶ trade credit from international banks in particular have¶ negatively impacted some
countries. The most important¶ factor is probably the growth of global supply chains,¶ which has
magnified the impact of declining final demand¶ on trade. When a U.S. household decides not to buy a¶
$40,000 Cayenne sport utility vehicle from Germany,¶ German exports to the United States go down by
$40,000,¶ but Slovakian exports to Germany go down by perhaps¶ half that amount, since while the
final assembly is done in¶ Leipzig, the coachwork is done in Bratislava. All this said, it really is the case
that we don’t fully understand the rel-¶ ative importance of the effects.¶ If it is any consolation, there
are signs that trade will¶ rise with recovery every bit as fast as it fell with the onset¶ of the crisis.
Too many other reasons that prohibit economic growth.
IEC 09 (The International Economy is a specialized quarterly magazine covering global financial policy, economic trends, and international trade. Spring of 2009. “Collapse in World
Trade” from The Magazine of International Economic Policy. http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp09_WorldTrade.pdf July 8, 2014)
There are several reasons why international trade has collapsed faster than global GDP. First, the decline
in manufacturing output has exceeded the decline in real GDP. For example, U.S. industrial pro- duction
in the first quarter of 2009 was 14 percent lower than its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007. In contrast,
the level of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter of 2009 was only 3.2 percent below its
peak. Demand for tradable goods is largely derived from demand for manufactured goods, so the
collapse in trade reflects the collapse in manufacturing. Second, the decline in global trade has been
exacerbated by business efforts to conserve cash rather than build up inventories to prior levels. Trade
flows are being buffeted not only by a general decline in activity, but also by this temporary move to
lower inventories. Third, the decline in trade reflects the crisis in finance. Credit plays a critical role in
international trade, and the disruption in global credit markets has restricted flows of credit needed to
support trade. Finally, the boom in commodities-related trade has been replaced by gloom. Prices for
many commodities are falling and ports are packed with imports (think Houston and oil-country tubular
goods) for which there is currently limited demand. This new reality is forcing even hyperactive
exporters to cut back shipments dramatically.
No Trade War
Trade war won’t happen.
Fletcher 2010
Ian, Senior Economist of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, former Research Fellow at the U.S.
Business and Industry Council, The Mythical Concept of Trade War, April 2nd 2010,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/the-mythical-concept-of-t_b_523864.html
As Americans ponder how to get the U.S. out of its current trade mess, we are constantly warned to do nothing - like impose a tariff to
neutralize Chinese currency manipulation - that would trigger a "trade war." Supposedly, no matter how bad our problems with our trading
partners get, they are less bad than the spiraling catastrophe that would ensue if we walked a single inch away from our current policy of
unilateral free trade. But the
curious thing about the concept of trade war is that, unlike actual shooting war, it has no
historical precedent . In fact, the reality is that there has never been a significant trade war, "significant" in the
sense of having done serious economic damage. All history records are minor skirmishes at best. The standard example free
traders give is that America's Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 either caused the Great Depression or made it spread around the world.
But this canard does not survive serious examination, and has actually been denied by almost every
economist who has actually researched the question in depth--a group ranging from Paul Krugman on
the left to Milton Friedman on the right. The Depression's cause was monetary. The Fed allowed the money
supply to balloon during the late 1920s, piling up in the stock market as a bubble. It then panicked, miscalculated, and let it collapse by a third
by 1933, depriving the economy of the liquidity it needed to breathe. Trade
had nothing to do with it. As for the charge
that Smoot caused the Depression to spread worldwide: it was too small a change to have plausibly so
large an effect. For a start, it only applied to about one-third of America's trade: about 1.3 percent of our GDP.
Our average tariff on dutiable goods went from 44.6 to 53.2 percent--not a terribly big jump. Tariffs were higher in almost every year from 1821
to 1914. Our
tariff went up in 1861, 1864, 1890, and 1922 without producing global depressions, and the
recessions of 1873 and 1893 managed to spread worldwide without tariff increases. Neither does the myth of a death spiral of
retaliation by foreign nations hold water. According to the official State Department report on this question in 1931: With the
exception of discriminations in France, the extent of discrimination against American commerce is very
slight...By far the largest number of countries do not discriminate against the commerce of the United States in any way. "Notorious"
Smoot-Hawley is a deliberately fabricated myth, plain and simple. There is a basic unresolved paradox at the
bottom of the very concept of trade war. If, as free traders insist, free trade is beneficial whether or not one's
trading partners reciprocate, then why would any rational nation start one, no matter how provoked?
The only way to explain this is to assume that major national governments like the Chinese and the U.S.--governments
which, whatever bad things they may have done, have managed to hold nuclear weapons for decades without nuking each other over trivial
spats--are not players of realpolitik, but schoolchildren. When the moneymen in Beijing, Tokyo, Berlin, and the other nations
currently running trade surpluses against the U.S. start to ponder the financial realpolitik of exaggerated retaliation against the U.S. for any
measures we may employ to bring our trade back into balance, they will discover the advantage is with us, not them. Because they are the ones
with trade surpluses to lose, not us. So our position of weakness is actually a position of strength. Supposedly,
China can suddenly
stop buying our Treasury Debt if we rock the boat. But this would immediately reduce the value of the
trillion or so they already hold--not to mention destroying, by making their hostility overt, the fragile (and desperatelytended) delusion in the U.S. that America and China are still benign economic "partners" in a win-win economic relationship. At the end
of the day, China cannot force us to do anything economically that we don't choose to. America is still a nuclear power. We can--an
irresponsible but not impossible scenario--repudiate our debt to them (or stop paying the interest) as the ultimate countermove to anything
they might contemplate. More plausibly, we might simply restore the tax on the interest on foreign-held bonds that was repealed in 1984
thanks to Treasury Secretary Donald Regan. A
certain amount of back-and-forth token retaliation (and loud squealing) is
indeed likely if America starts defending its interests in trade as diligently as our trading partners have
been defending theirs, but that's it. After all, the world trading system has survived their trade barriers
long enough without collapsing.
Won’t be hot wars
Erixon and Sally, directors-ECIPE, 10 (Fredrik and Razeen, European Centre for International Political
Economy, TRADE, GLOBALISATION AND EMERGING PROTECTIONISM SINCE THE CRISIS,
http://www.ecipe.org/media/publication_pdfs/trade-globalisation-and-emerging-protectionism-since-thecrisis.pdf)
But in one other important respect the comparison with the 1930s is highly misleading. Then, tit-for-tat
trade protection rapidly followed the Wall Street Crash, and the world splintered into warring trade
blocs . This has not happened today, and it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. As we will discuss in the
next section, crisis-related protectionism today is remarkably restrained . Multilateral trade rules,
international policy cooperation and market-led globalisation provide defences against a headlong
descent into 1930s-style protectionism.
No retaliation
Erixon and Sally, directors-ECIPE, 10 (Fredrik and Razeen, European Centre for International Political
Economy, TRADE, GLOBALISATION AND EMERGING PROTECTIONISM SINCE THE CRISIS,
http://www.ecipe.org/media/publication_pdfs/trade-globalisation-and-emerging-protectionism-since-thecrisis.pdf)
Perhaps the biggest surprise is that the world has not hurtled into tit-for-tat protectionism. That spectre was real enough in
late 2008, given the scale of growth contraction and deglobalisation. The good news is documented in WTO updates on new trade measures in
2009. New
protectionist measures have appeared – what the WTO refers to as “policy slippage” – but they are
remarkably mild . They affect a maximum of 1 per cent of world trade in goods, and protectionism in
trade in services has not increased noticeably. New protectionism is concentrated in sectors that have long been protected:
textiles, clothing, footwear, iron, steel, consumer electronics and agriculture. Trade remedies have increased, as they do in
economic downturns. New antidumping (AD) investigations increased by 15 per cent from mid 2008 to mid 2009, and there has been a
marked pickup in new investigations for safeguards and countervailing duties. Signs are that trade-defence filings and
investigations are mounting quarter-by-quarter, which points to a sharp increase in imposed duties in
2010 and 2011. Nevertheless, new investigations affect a tiny share of world trade. For example, new AD
investigations affect 0.4 per cent of the value of US and EU imports. Finally, up to one-third of new trade
measures have been liberalising. These include tariff reductions, removal of export restrictions and FDI
liberalisation in several developing countries. 18
No Impact-Trade doesn’t solve war
Interdependence doesn’t solve war
Layne 8 (Christopher Layne is a professor at Texas A&M University’s George H. W. Bush School of
Government and Public Service. He is author of The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from
1940 to the Present (Cornell University Press, 2006), and (with Bradley A. Thayer) American Empire: A
Debate (Routledge, 2007). “China’s Challenge to US Hegemony”
http://acme.highpoint.edu/~msetzler/IR/IRreadingsbank/chinauscontain.ch08.6.pdf //Donnie)
Proponents of engagement have also argued that the United States can help foster political liberalization in China by integrating the country
into the international economy and embedding it in the complex web of international institutional arrangements. A
China so engaged,
it is said, will have strong interests in cooperation and will not be inclined to pursue security competition
with America or with its Asian neighbors. Engagement is a problematic strategy, however, because it rests on a shaky
foundation. The conventional wisdom notwithstanding, there is little support in the historical record for the idea
that economic interdependence leads to peace. After all, Europe never was more interdependent (not only
economically but also, among the ruling elites, intellectually and culturally) than before World War I. It was famously
predicted, on the eve of World War I, that the economic ties among Europe’s great powers had ushered
in an era in which war among them was unthinkable. Yet, as we know, the prospect of forgoing the economic gains of trade
did not stop Europe’s great powers from fighting a prolonged and devastating war. Beijing’s actual foreign policy furnishes a
concrete reason to be skeptical of the argument that interdependence leads to peace. China’s behavior
in the 1996 crisis with Taiwan (during which it conducted missile tests in waters surrounding the island in the run-up to Taiwan’s
presidential election) suggested it was not constrained by fears that its muscular foreign policy would
adversely affect its overseas trade. Of course, during the past decade, China has been mindful of its stake in international trade
and investment. But this does not vindicate the us strategy of engagement. China’s current policy reflects the fact that, for
now, Beijing recognizes its strategic interest in preserving peace in East Asia. Stability in the region, and in Sino-American relations, allows China
to become richer and to catch up to the United States in relative power. For a state in China’s position vis-à-vis the
United States, this
is the optimal realpolitik strategy: buying time for its economy to grow so that the nation can openly
balance against the United States militarily and establish its own regional hegemony in East Asia. Beijing
is pursuing a peaceful policy today in order to strengthen itself to confront the United States
tomorrow.