Alaska Sustainable Salmon Fund
Statement of Work
I.
Project Title: Linkages Between Habitat Quality and Productivity of Afognak Lake
Sockeye
II.
Project Number: 44912
III.
Principal Investigator
Anne Beaudreau, Assistant Professor
University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)
School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (SFOS)
17101 Point Lena Loop Road
Juneau, AK 99801
907-796-5454
abeaudreau@alaska.edu
Co-Principal Investigator
Heather Finkle, Fishery Biologist III
Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G)
Division of Commercial Fisheries (CF)
351 Research Court
Kodiak, AK 99615
907-486-1848
heather.finkle@alaska.gov
IV.
Project Period: 7/1/14 – 6/30/15
V.
AKSSF Objective: 2A-4
VI.
Project Description
1. Synopsis
The recent decline in Afognak Lake sockeye salmon productivity is a serious concern
for subsistence users, as this salmon run has historically supported the largest
subsistence salmon fishery on Afognak Island and the second largest in the Kodiak
Archipelago. This project will analyze three decades of limnological and biological
data to evaluate drivers of Afognak sockeye salmon population productivity. Results
will benefit the maintenance and conservation of Afognak sockeye salmon by
identifying the importance of lake rearing habitats for marine survival, mediated by
habitat quality effects on juvenile sockeye condition and growth, which will assist in
the development of escapement goals on this important subsistence stock.
2. Introduction
The Afognak Lake sockeye salmon run is of critical importance to residents of Port
Lions, Ouzinkie, Afognak Village, and the city of Kodiak. In the 2000s, the number
of sockeye salmon returning to Afognak River diminished substantially, resulting in
closures to commercial, sport, and subsistence fishing in Afognak Bay. Following
PCSRF Objective: RM&E
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these limitations, local subsistence users, represented by the Kodiak-Aleutians
Regional Advisory Council, Kodiak Fish and Game Advisory Committee, and
Kodiak Tribal Council, stressed the importance of Afognak sockeye salmon to local
subsistence users and contended that continued closures would make it more difficult
for local residents to meet their sockeye salmon subsistence needs.
Lake-rearing habitat quantity and quality have been identified as potentially important
limiting factors for sockeye production. Previous studies of Afognak Lake sockeye
salmon have been limited to separately reporting the results of limnological
investigations, adult returns, or smolt projects. It was not until 2011 that ecological
studies of smolt diet and energy content were initiated by the Alaska Department of
Fish and Game (ADF&G). These ongoing investigations have highlighted the need
for an historical synthesis to characterize changes in the Afognak Lake ecosystem and
to quantify linkages between sockeye salmon production and their freshwater habitat.
This project will use a time series of limnological and ecological data to examine
three decades of change in Afognak Lake rearing habitat, zooplankton community
structure, and sockeye salmon abundance, growth, and survival. It will provide an
improved quantitative understanding of the relationships between lake habitat and
Afognak sockeye population productivity and will aid managers in evaluating and
setting escapement goals.
3. Location
Site: Afognak Lake
Latitude: 58.114219 N
Longitude: 152.922675 W
VII.
Objectives
1. Examine changes in the zooplankton community in response to changes in
environmental conditions and primary production in Afognak Lake from 1987 to
present
2. Assess relationships between patterns in lake habitat quality and juvenile sockeye
size-at-age and body condition from 1989 to present
3. Assess the extent to which sockeye may be food-limited in Afognak Lake by
comparing monthly sockeye fry consumption rates, determined using a bioenergetics
model, with patterns of zooplankton prey supply
4. Identify relationships between freshwater juvenile salmon production, as measured by
abundance, size, and body condition of outmigrating smolts, and marine (smolt-toadult) survival
VIII. Methods
Variability in the quality of rearing habitats can translate into changes in growth,
condition, and ultimately in survival of juvenile fishes. Habitat quality can be assessed in
terms of both abiotic factors, such as substrate and water quality, and biotic factors,
including prey and conspecific densities. This project will assess the quality of Afognak
Lake rearing habitat in terms of its contribution to size and body condition of
outmigrating sockeye smolt. An extensive limnological data set for Afognak Lake
collected over the past three decades affords the opportunity to evaluate the consequences
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of changes in lake habitat (nutrients and water quality) and zooplankton prey supply
(size, abundance, species composition) for juvenile sockeye.
Because zooplankton are important prey for sockeye fry, this project will examine
changes in the zooplankton community in response to changes in environmental
conditions and primary production in Afognak Lake (Objective 1). Temporal variability
in abundance and body size for three zooplankton species will be modeled as a function
of five lake habitat parameters—temperature, euphotic zone depth, dissolved oxygen,
nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and chlorophyll-a concentration—using generalized linear
models (GLMs). A set of candidate models will be developed from all possible
combinations of predictor variables and compared using standard information-theoretic
model selection approaches. This project will also use a more sophisticated time series
modeling approach to examine temporal relationships between zooplankton
abundance/size and the same suite of lake habitat parameters described above. Using
similar statistical methods, relationships will be identified between juvenile sockeye
productivity (i.e., size-at-age and body condition) and lake habitat parameters (Objective
2). Mean size-at-age and body condition (Fulton’s K) of outmigrating smolt from
Afognak Lake will be modeled as a function of smolt abundance, stocked fry abundance,
biomass density and mean body size of zooplankton prey, lake temperature, and euphotic
zone depth. Model selection will be performed as described above.
To assess the potential that sockeye salmon fry are food-limited in their lake rearing
habitats, monthly consumption rates of sockeye fry and threespine stickleback, a potential
competitor, will be compared with monthly estimates of zooplankton prey supply
(Objective 3). Analysis will be focused on 2013 (May-August), for which high resolution
diet data are available for planktivores in Afognak Lake. A bioenergetics modeling
approach will be used to assess the relative importance of zooplankton and other prey to
the energy budget of sockeye fry in Afognak Lake and evaluate resource demand by
sockeye under different thermal conditions.
Finally, this project will identify relationships between freshwater juvenile salmon
production and marine (smolt-to-adult) survival to test the hypothesis that increased size
and condition of fry confers survival benefits to marine life stages of Afognak sockeye
(Objective 4). Marine (smolt-to-adult) survival will be determined based on the estimated
abundance of outmigrating smolts from mark-recapture and life history models and the
total number of returning adults (escapement + harvest). Marine survival rate will be
modeled as a function of smolt abundance, size, and condition using generalized linear
mixed effects models, with year included as a random effect. A set of candidate models
will be developed from all possible combinations of predictor variables and compared
using standard information-theoretic model selection approaches. Model(s) best
supported by the data will be used to generate predicted relationships between marine
survival and smolt productivity metrics.
IX.
Benefits
This project will provide an improved quantitative understanding of the relationships
between lake habitat, prey supply, and Afognak sockeye population productivity and will
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thereby aid managers in evaluating and setting escapement goals for an important
subsistence sockeye salmon stock.
X.
Products, Milestones, and Timelines
 July 2014: Compile data and begin preliminary analyses for Objectives 1, 2, and 4
 October 2014: Conduct investigator meeting by video conference
 October 2014-March 2015: Analyze data for Objective 3; prepare Master’s thesis;
continue analyses for Objectives 1, 2, and 4
 Spring 2015: Investigator meeting in Kodiak; defend Master’s thesis
 April-June 2015: Prepare manuscripts for publication; complete final reports for
ADF&G and AKSSF
 June 2015: Submit final reports to AKSSF; submit manuscripts to journals
XI.
Budget
Summary Budget
100 Personnel
200 Travel
300 Contractual
400 Supplies
500 Equipment
Subtotal
600 Indirect
Total
Total
$24,977
$3,937
$3,871
$200
$0
$32,985
$5,341
$38,326
This project funds the following entities:
 UAF: $18,239
 ADF&G CF: $20,087
UAF Budget
UAF Budget
100 Personnel
200 Travel
300 Contractual
400 Supplies
500 Equipment
Subtotal
Expenses subject to indirect
600 Indirect @ 25%
Total
Total
$10,117
$1,177
$3,871
$200
$0
$15,365
$11,494
$2,874
$18,239
UAF Budget Narrative:
Line 100: Personnel ($10,117)
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Dr. Anne Beaudreau will manage the project, prepare project reports, supervise the
graduate student, compile data, and contribute to analyses and manuscript preparation:
 Salary: 1 month @ $7,711/month including leave reserve and annual increase =
$7,711
 Benefits at 31.2%: $2,406
Line 200: Travel ($1,177)
Dr. Anne Beaudreau will make one trip from Juneau to Kodiak to discuss the project,
work on data analyses, and synthesize results with Kodiak based ADF&G collaborators
and the graduate student:
 Airfare: $825
 Meals and incidentals: 4 days @ $88/day = $352
Line 300: Contractual ($3,871)
Graduate student Natura Richardson will be responsible for completing Objective 3 as a
component of her Master’s thesis and will also contribute to other objectives:
 9 credit hours tuition: $3,871
Line 400: Supplies ($200)
Reference books and lab supplies: $200
Line 600: Indirect ($2,874)
UAF’s federally negotiated indirect rates through June 30, 2014, range from 35% to
49.5% excluding (among other costs) equipment, tuition, and subgrants and contracts
over the first $25,000; however, indirect will be recovered at a reduced rate of 25% for
this project.
ADF&G CF Budget
ADF&G CF Budget
100 Personnel
200 Travel
300 Contractual
400 Supplies
500 Equipment
Subtotal
600 Indirect @ 14%
Total
Total
$14,860
$2,760
$0
$0
$0
$17,620
$2,467
$20,087
ADF&G CF Budget Narrative:
Line 100: Personnel ($14,860)
Salaries were estimated using the state salary calculator.
Natura Richardson, Fish & Wildlife Technician III (PCN 11-1312), will consolidate data,
conduct a literature review, assist with data analysis and reporting, and present results.
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taking primary responsibility for Objective 3 as a component of her Master’s thesis (see
UAF budget narrative): 2.5 months @ $5,944/month = $14,860.
Line 200: Travel ($2,760)
Heather Finkle and Natura Richardson will travel from Kodiak to Juneau to present
project findings:
 Airfare: 2 tickets @ $750/ticket = $1,500
 Hotel: 3 nights @ $150/night x 2 people = $900
 Meals per diem: 6 days @ 60/day = $360
Line 600: Indirect ($2,467)
ADF&G’s federally negotiated indirect rate through June 30, 2014, is 14.93% excluding
equipment and pass-through funds; however, indirect will be recovered at a reduced rate
of 14% for this project.
XII.
Match Budget
Summary Match Budget (35%)
100 Personnel
200 Travel
300 Contractual
400 Supplies
500 Equipment
Subtotal
600 Indirect
Total
Total
$11,273
$0
$0
$0
$0
$11,273
$2,141
$13,414
The following entities will provide match:
 UAF: $6,388
 ADF&G CF: $7,026
UAF Match Budget
UAF Match Budget
100 Personnel
200 Travel
300 Contractual
400 Supplies
500 Equipment
Subtotal
600 Indirect @ 25%
Total
Total
$5,110
$0
$0
$0
$0
$5,110
$1,278
$6,388
UAF Match Budget Narrative:
Line 100: Personnel ($5,110)
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Dr. Anne Beaudreau will manage the project, prepare project reports, supervise the
graduate student, compile data, and contribute to analyses and manuscript preparation:
 Salary: 0.51 months @ $7,711/month including leave reserve and annual increase:
$3,895
 Benefits: $1,215
Line 600: Indirect ($1,278)
UAF’s federally negotiated indirect rates through June 30, 2014, range from 35% to
49.5% excluding (among other costs) equipment, tuition, and subgrants and contracts
over the first $25,000; however, indirect will be recovered at a reduced rate of 25% for
this project.
ADF&G CF Match Budget
ADF&G Match Budget
100 Personnel
200 Travel
300 Contractual
400 Supplies
500 Equipment
Subtotal
600 Indirect @ 14%
Total
Total
$6,163
$0
$0
$0
$0
$6,163
$863
$7,026
ADF&G CF Match Budget Narrative:
Line 100: Personnel ($6,163)
Salaries were estimated using the state salary calculator.
Heather Finkle, Fishery Biologist III (PCN 11-1332), will assist with data requests,
analysis, and authoring reports and publications: 0.8 months @ $7,710/month = $6,163.
Line 600: Indirect ($863)
ADF&G’s federally negotiated indirect rate through June 30, 2014, is 14.93% excluding
equipment and pass-through funds; however, indirect will be recovered at a reduced rate
of 14% for this project.
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