Report 38,
March 5,
2013
Statement of the Early
Warning Information
Working Group of the
Food Security and
Agriculture Cluster
Early Warning Update
This issue
Climate P.1
Ea rly W a rnin g
Market Situation P.2
Inform a tion
W ork ing G roup
Data Annexes P.3
The Early Warning Information Working
Group (EWIWG) under the Food
Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC)
is an inter-institutional mechanism to
promote synergy among cluster
members. Its function is to gather,
share and analyze food security and
agriculture early warning information,
and prepare recommendations to the
FSAC.
Precipitation:
Principles
1.
Member institutions are committed
to timely information sharing.
2.
The EWI WG does not replace or
substitute any partner institution
mandate.
3.
Core Messages:
On March 5, Early Warning Information Working Group meeting, FEWS-NET, ACF, OCHA,
FAO, Agromet, MAIL, MEDAIR, WFP, USAID, MoEW/Water Resource department were
in participation. A details report of Agromet is attached to this bulletin.
The group discusses and approves
its recommendations, for further
Comparison of accumulated rainfall data during the reported time indicates that there is
an increased rainfall (mm) in some parts of the country. According to the Agromet, only 3
provinces recorded equal rainfall figures when comparing with the last year recoding
timeframe. However, significant part of the country recorded less rainfall figures and it
indicated that there might be a mild drought in the coming months or probably during
summer 2013. Nevertheless, overall prediction from the Agromet was that the
precipitation was normal and sufficient for spring cultivation.
discussion of the FSAC.
4.
The group reports and analyses are
based on internal consensus.
5.
Institutions participating in the
EWIWG can establish task forces to
undertake specific activities, not
being necessary the participation of
all members.
6.
FSAC membership will discuss and
Snow Cover:
Heavy snowfall in early February 2013 helped to fill the more extreme deficits.
Comparison of accumulated snowfall data from February 16 – March 2, 2013 with the
same period of last Year (2012) indicates that there is a slightly variation in some parts of
the country. In the meantime, final computed analysis indicates a decrease of snowfall
within the central highlands, but when comparing with the last year, it had increased
significantly. The increased snowfall/snow cover is sufficient for the irrigated cultivation
for the next agriculture season, which means, summer cultivation.
decide on a follow up to the
Temperature:
recommendations.
Partners
ACF
Agromet
FAO
FEWSNET
iMMAP
MAIL
OCHA
Solidarités Int.
WFP
MEDAIR
During February 2013, temperature gradually increased in most parts of the country,
where minimum temperature recorded between -20°C to -22°C in the Central highlands
and the Northeastern higher regions. Also recorded that temperature had positive
departure around 4 - 6C. When comparing the monthly average of temperature for
February 2013 with the same month in 2012, it indicates that temperature had increase
in the entire country.
Weather Forecasts
Precipitation:
Contact
Cyril Lekiefs, FSAC Coordinator
Cyril.Lekiefs@fao.org
0798 000 131
Forecast of long-term data on precipitation for Afghanistan is only available from
International Research Institute for Climate & Society (IRI) and results indicate “near-toaverage” precipitation for coming three months. In all means, if predictions are accurate
until such time, normal weather condition will prevail in the country.
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Temperature:
Close to normal across the country’s lowlands, meanwhile below-average temperatures (2 to 4 degrees Celsius) were
recorded across the central highlands and northwest mountains of Afghanistan. However during the coming week,
above-average temperatures are forecasted across south Central Asia except higher elevations in central and
northeastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan and western Tajikistan, where below-average temperatures are
forecasted with the minimum temperature below -20°C.
Potential Impact of Weather Conditions on Food Security
Irrigated wheat:
Snow falls ensures sufficient water storage for irrigation cropping especially for the primary growing season of March
to July, 2013. Current snow cover is sufficient to support the irrigated grain crop.
Rain-fed wheat:
Rain-fed crops mostly depends on spring rainfall, rather than on snow melting. According to weather forecasts, yields
for rain-fed wheat are likely to be “near to normal”. Yet, the weather conditions may be different from predictions,
and rain-fed wheat may fail because of insufficient water.
Food security:
Lower elevation areas in the country are emerging from the lean season and most households in those regions will be
food secured than last year except communities living in extreme northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor. Due
to the prevalence of above normal temperature, spring wheat cultivation started 15-20 days early, which resulted in
provision of labor opportunities earlier than normal labor season in lower elevation areas of the country. As a result,
this could lead to an early harvest. Dietary diversity and also access to markets are increasing significantly and seasonal
labor opportunities have resumed in lower elevation areas.
Market Prices Highlight
Average wheat grain retail price was decreasing during July 2011 - July 2012. However, it was increasing from August
2012 through January 2013. On the international market, a decreasing trend of wheat price was continuously
observed from October 2011 to May 2012, but has been increasing from June 2012 to February 2013. A sharp
increased price of wheat grain in international markets (June - August 2012) was slightly transmitted to main city
markets of Afghanistan during September 2012. The current wheat prices are significantly higher by 11 and 14 percent
in comparison to the same time last year and last five years average price of February months. Following the wheat
grain price trend, wheat flour average price was also decreasing during July 2011 - May 2012, but was increasing in
June 2012 - January 2013 in main urban cities of Afghanistan. Current wheat flour prices are significantly higher by 25
percent in comparison to the same time last year and higher by 26 percent compared to five years average price of
February months.
Market Situation:
WFP: Annex I: WFP
Retail Price of Wheat Grain in Main Urban Cities:




Monthly average price of wheat in the main urban markets was 21.9Afs/Kg. Compared to January 2013, the
average price was not changed. The variation in all main cities was normal (-2.7 to 2.6 percent).
Compared to the same month one year ago (February 2012) the average price increased by 11.4 percent. The
highest increase occurred in Jalalabad (28.6), Nili (21.6), Kabul (17), Hirat (14.7) and Mazar (13.4) percent. The
variation in other main cities was normal (-2.7 to 4.1 percent).
On the two-year comparison (February 2011), the average price of wheat was higher by 22 percent.
Compared to five years average price of February months (February 2008 to 2012), the price increased by 14
percent. The highest increase occurred in Jalalabad (27), Maimana (18), Nili (17), Mazar and Kabul (15), Hirat and
Kandahar (9) and Faizabad (5) percent.
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Retail Price of Wheat Flour in the Main Urban Cities:
Monthly average price of wheat flour in main urban markets was 30.8 Afs/Kg in February 2013, which shows 0.4
percent increase compared to January 2013. The variation in all main cities was normal (-3 to 3.6 percent). Main
reason for the increase was daily market fluctuation.
Compared to the same month one year ago (February 2012), the average price increased by 25.4 percent. The
highest increase was noticed in Maimana (46.6), Mazar (46.2), Kabul (33.3), Jalalabad (32.7), Hirat (32) and Nili
(22.9) percent. The variation in other main cities was normal (1.2 to 2.5 percent). Main reason was increase in global
Wheat price and depreciation of Afghan currency against US dollar.
Compared to the same month two years ago (February 2011), average price of Wheat Flour increased by 20.4
percent. The highest increase occurred in Kabul (35.4), Nili (34.4), Mazar (22.6), Maimana (21.8), Hirat (20.3) and
Jalalabad (11.7). An increase within a normal range is seen in Faizabad (9.3) and Kandahar (3.5).
Compared to five years average price of February months (2008 to 2012), current average price increased by 26
percent. The highest increase occurred in Kabul (41), Mazar (36), Maimana (34), Nili (33), Hirat (31), Jalalabad (21)
and Faizabad (14) percent. Meanwhile, a five percent decrease occurred in Kandahar.
Terms of Trade (ToT):
Casual Labor and Wheat: The Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual Labor and wheat is a proxy indicator or the
purchasing capacity of households relying on casual labor as main income, and purchase of wheat in the market. This
ToT reveal how many Kilograms of wheat can be purchased with one day of casual labor wage, but do not say how
many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.
 Wage labor-Wheat ToT average for the reporting month was 14.5 Kgs of wheat against one day labor wage.
 On average, this ToT was slightly deteriorated by 0.1% from January - February 2013. The variation in all
markets was normal (-2.6% to 2.9%).
In comparison to same month one year ago (February 2012), this ToT deteriorated by 6.9%. The highest
deterioration occurred in Jalalabad (35.1 %), Mazar (18.1 %), Kabul (14.5 %) and Hirat (12.8 %). Meanwhile, an
improvement occurred in Maimana (23 %). The variation in other main cities was normal (-1.3 % to 8.7 %).
 On the 2 years comparison (February 2011), it deteriorated by 1.7%. The highest deterioration was in Jalalabad
(40 %), Kandahar (16.9 %) and Mazar (15.2 %). While improvement occurred in Maimana (58 %) and Faizabad
(28.6 %). The variation in other main cities was normal (-3.2% to 0.7%).
 Compared to the 5 years average of the February months (February 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the
average of this ToT improved by 15%. The highest improvement was reported in Maimana (41 %), Faizabad (40
%), Nili (16 %) and Hirat (13 %). Deterioration was found only in Jalalabad (20 %). The variation in other main
cities was normal (8% to 9%).
Sheep and Wheat (ToT): The Terms of Trade between a one year old female sheep and wheat is a proxy for the
purchasing capacity of those households that are mainly reliant on income from livestock (pastoralists). It says how
many kilograms of wheat can be obtained when selling a one year old female sheep.
The average Sheep-Wheat ToT for the reporting month was 281 Kgs of wheat against one year alive female sheep.
 On average, this ToT improved by 2% from January to February 2013. The highest improvement was observed
only in Mazar (9.9 %). Main reason for improvement was increased Sheep price and decreased Wheat price. The
variation in other main cities was normal (-2.4% to 3.3%).
 Compared to same month one year ago (February 2012), the average ToT improved by 0.9 %. The highest
improvement occurred in Faizabad (19.9 %), Jalalabad (18.9 %), Maimana (12.1 %) and Mazar (10.2 %). While
there was deterioration in Kandahar (23.4 %), Kabul (11.6 %) and Hirat (11.3 %). The variation in Nili was normal
(6.9 %).
 On the 2-year comparison (February 2011), the average sheep/wheat ToT was deteriorated by 3.5%.
Compared to 5 years average of the February months (February 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the current
average of this ToT improved by 8%. The highest improvement occurred in Jalalabad (34 %) and Maimana (11 %).
The variation in other main cities was normal (-5% to 9%).
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Data Annexes:
Annex I: WFP
Wheat prices in Main Cities (Afs/ Kg)
KABUL
KANDAHAR
JALALABAD
HIRAT
MAZAR
FAIZABAD
MAIMANA
NILI
Average
35
30
25
20
15
2011
2012
4
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Feb
5
Mar
10
2013
Wheat Flour Price in Main Cities (Afs/ Kg)
KABUL
KANDAHAR
JALALABAD
HIRAT
MAZAR
FAIZABAD
MAIMANA
NILI
Average
45
40
35
30
25
20
2011
2012
5
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Feb
10
Mar
15
2013
Casual Labour/Wheat in main Cities of Afghanistan
5 years avg
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
6
Nili
Maimana
Faizabad
Mazar
Herat
Jalalabad
Kandahar
0
Kabul
3
Sheep/Wheat in main cities of Afghanistan
5 years avg
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
7
Nili
Maimana
Faizabad
Mazar
Hirat
Jalalabad
Kandahar
Kabul
0
Source: WFP/VAM market data from Afghanistan main cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar, Jalalabad, Faizabad, Hirat, Maimana and Nili)
Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) – World Food Programme (WFP), Afghanistan
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Annex II: FEWSNET Data
Food Security Conditions:
Vegetation, February 2128, NDVI Anomaly from
2001 - 2010 Average.
Source: USGS/FEWSNET
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Food Security Conditions: Livestock
Livestock
10000
9000
AFN/one yr old female sheep
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Kabul
Jalalabad
Feb 12
Hirat
Mazar
5 yrs avg.
10
Faizabad
Maimana
Kandahar
Feb 13
Nili
Temperatures
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Short Term Forecast: More Precipitation is Coming
12
Short Term Forecast:
More Precipitation is
Coming
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Annex III: Agromet Data
A detailed Agromet report is attached to this current early warning bulletin. For further information about meteorology and rainfall data.
A detailed Agricultural Commodity Price Bulletin from is also attached to this bulletin. You can access the data always on our website:
http://afg.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/default/files/Agromet%20Input_February2013.pdf
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