JUSTICE SECTOR
Justice Sector Forecast
2012-2022
Forecast Update
Quarter ending September 2012
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
2012 © Crown Copyright
ISSN 1178-1424 (online)
Published by the Ministry of Justice
Although all reasonable steps have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this document, the
Ministry of Justice disclaims any and all responsibility for any inaccuracy, error, omission, or any other kind of inadequacy,
deficiency, or flaw in, or in relation to, the information; and fully excludes any and all liability of any kind to any person or
entity that chooses to rely upon the information.
Page 2
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Contents
1.
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 5
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.
3.
4.
5.
Focus: The fall in prosecutions .......................................................................................... 16
Historical and international context ................................................................................... 19
Summary graphs .................................................................................................................. 21
Forecast drivers .................................................................................................................... 24
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
6.
Written Reports ................................................................................................................... 37
Oral reports ......................................................................................................................... 38
Monetary penalties ............................................................................................................... 39
8.1
8.2
8.3
9.
Crown Law case inflow ....................................................................................................... 35
Crown Law active caseload ................................................................................................ 36
Pre-sentence reports............................................................................................................ 37
7.1
7.2
8.
Numbers in the court system .............................................................................................. 25
Proportion remanded in custody ......................................................................................... 26
Time on custodial remand ................................................................................................... 27
Proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction .............................................................. 28
Proportion of those convicted given different sentences .................................................... 29
Length of prison sentence imposed .................................................................................... 33
Proportion of prison sentence served ................................................................................. 34
Crown Law inflow and caseload ......................................................................................... 35
6.1
6.2
7.
Headlines .............................................................................................................................. 5
Summary of drivers ............................................................................................................... 6
Crown Law inflow and caseload ........................................................................................... 8
Pre-sentence reports ............................................................................................................. 9
Monetary penalties .............................................................................................................. 10
Community sentences and related workload ...................................................................... 11
Prison population ................................................................................................................ 15
Legal Aid ............................................................................................................................. 15
Amount imposed ................................................................................................................. 39
Amount received ................................................................................................................. 40
Remittals to Community Work sentences ........................................................................... 41
Community sentences and related workload .................................................................... 42
9.1
9.2
9.3
Community sentences ......................................................................................................... 42
Post-sentence management ............................................................................................... 49
Provision of Information ...................................................................................................... 54
10. Prison population ................................................................................................................. 58
11. Legal Aid ................................................................................................................................ 60
11.1 Legal aid expenditure .......................................................................................................... 61
12. Explanatory notes ................................................................................................................ 62
Page 3
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
About this update
The Justice Sector Forecast represents a key instrument for strategic planning within the justice
sector. The forecast is prepared annually by the Sector Group within the Ministry of Justice, in
collaboration with representatives from across the sector, including the Ministry itself, New
Zealand Police, the Department of Corrections and the Crown Law Office.
This report is the first quarterly update for the 2012-2013 fiscal year. It compares actual
outcomes against forecast outcomes for the quarter July to September 2012 for each of the
following:

Numbers of new cases and cases on hand requiring the participation of Crown Law
solicitors.

Number of pre-sentence reports provided to courts by probation officers.

Amount of fines imposed and the amount of payments received for police-originated
cases in the criminal court.

Number of fine defaulters resentenced to Community Work.

Numbers of non-custodial sentences and orders. The non-custodial sentences and
orders included are those overseen by the Department of Corrections. Forecasts are
presented for both numbers starting these sentences and orders, and for the numbers
subject to them at any one time (the ‘muster’).

Numbers of reports from the Department of Corrections providing information to courts
and to the Parole Board.

Remand and sentenced prison population.

Accrued expenditure on Legal Aid.
In addition, actual outcomes for each of the forecast’s key drivers are compared with the
assumptions agreed to by the justice sector agencies.
Each quarterly update includes a Focus section, looking in more detail at some aspect of the
forecast. The Focus section in this issue (section 2) looks at the reasons for the observed fall in
prosecutions, taking public order offending as an example. Readers are invited to submit
suggestions for topics to be covered, though we cannot guarantee to be able to cover everything.
This update is produced quarterly – that is, for the quarters ending 30 September, 31 December,
31 March, and 30 June each year. The explanatory notes in Section 12 give details of the
assumptions underpinning the forecast and of the conventions used in the graphs and tables in
this update.
Page 4
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.
Overview
1.1
Headlines
This update covers the first quarter of the 2012-2013 fiscal year. At this stage, trends against the
new forecast have yet to establish themselves, so there is limited ability to identify how they will
develop over the coming year.
The main points of interest include:

Most of the key drivers of the forecast are following or below expected trends. The
exceptions are:
o
proportion convicted: after several years of steady increase, this measure is
beginning to level off;
o
Proportions receiving monetary and community sentences: Monetary sentences
are lower than expected, while community sentences are higher, suggesting that
the shift between these sentences continues to grow;
o
proportion of sentence served: higher than expectations.

Crown Law case inflow is 9% below forecast.

The value of fines imposed remains ahead of expectations, against trends in the
number of cases in the system, and the fall in fine usage. This reflects an increase in the
average fine imposed.

The mix of community sentences continues to evolve with starts on Community
Detention sentences 15% above forecast, starts on Intensive Supervision sentences 10%
above forecast, and starts on Supervision sentences 5% above forecast. So far this
change in the use of non-custodial sentences has only flowed through to a higher than
expected number on the Community Detention muster, but it would seem likely that the
musters for Intensive Supervision and Supervision will also exceed their forecast values
in due course.

The remand prisoner population is 6% below forecast, reflecting a lower-than-expected
number of defendants remanded. There were fewer remands because the numbers in
the system were lower than forecast, and there was a particularly low remand rate in
August.

Legal aid expenditure (excluding debt recovery) is 10% below forecast.
Page 5
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.2
Summary of drivers
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
39,318
37,262
-5.2%
Proportion remanded
7.8%
7.5%
-3.4%
Average time on remand (days)
64.5
60.3
-6.4%
Proportion convicted
75.0%
73.1%
-2.5%
Proportion of convictions: custodial
8.4%
8.2%
-2.7%
Proportion of convictions: community
38.9%
40.6%
4.5%
Proportion of convictions: monetary
37.9%
37.0%
-2.3%
Proportion of convictions: other
14.8%
14.2%
-4.4%
Ave. sentence imposed: ≤ 2 years
269
260
-3.1%
Ave. sentence imposed: > 2 years
1,480
1,452
-1.9%
Proportion of sentence served
72.5%
73.9%
1.9%
Driver
Court disposals
Legend
= Actual exceeds forecast by more than 3%
= Actual is within +/-3% of forecast
= Actual is more than 3% below forecast
Page 6











Actual
Difference
40,893
-8.9%
7.5%
0.7%
55.4
8.9%
73.8%
-0.9%
8.2%
-0.8%
37.5%
8.5%
40.1%
-7.6%
14.2%
-0.6%
253
2.8%
1,520
-4.5%
71.1%
3.9%











JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
39,318
37,262
-5.2%
Proportion remanded
7.8%
7.5%
-3.4%
Average time on remand (days)
64.5
60.3
-6.4%
Proportion convicted
75.0%
73.1%
-2.5%
Proportion of convictions: custodial
8.4%
8.2%
-2.7%
Proportion of convictions: community
38.9%
40.6%
4.5%
Proportion of convictions: monetary
37.9%
37.0%
-2.3%
Proportion of convictions: other
14.8%
14.2%
-4.4%
Ave. sentence imposed: ≤ 2 years
269
260
-3.1%
Ave. sentence imposed: > 2 years
1,480
1,452
-1.9%
Proportion of sentence served
72.5%
73.9%
1.9%
Driver
Court disposals











Actual
Difference
40,893
-8.9%
7.5%
0.7%
55.4
8.9%
73.8%
-0.9%
8.2%
-0.8%
37.5%
8.5%
40.1%
-7.6%
14.2%
-0.6%
253
2.8%
1,520
-4.5%
71.1%
3.9%











Page 7
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.3
Crown Law inflow and caseload
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Crown Law case inflows
2,066
1,889
-8.6%
Crown Law active caseload*
4,029
3,734
-7.3%
Number


Actual
Difference
2,101
-10.1%
3,733
0.0%


Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Crown Law case inflows
2,066
1,889
-8.6%
Crown Law active caseload*
4,029
3,734
-7.3%
Number


Actual
Difference
2,101
-10.1%
3,733
0.0%


* Crown Law’s active caseload is measured at the date of the end of the quarter, so ‘Current quarter’ and ‘Year to date’ are identical.
Page 8
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.4
Pre-sentence reports
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Written reports
7,455
7,524
0.9%
Oral reports
5,747
4,775
-16.9%
Total pre-sentence reports
13,202
12,299
-6.8%
Number of reports



Actual
Difference
7,356
2.3%
7,193
-33.6%
14,549
-15.5%



Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Written reports
7,455
7,524
0.9%
Oral reports
5,747
4,775
-16.9%
Total pre-sentence reports
13,202
12,299
-6.8%
Number of reports



Actual
Difference
7,356
2.3%
7,193
-33.6%
14,549
-15.5%



Page 9
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.5
Monetary penalties
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Fines imposed
$13.6m
$14.1m
3.9%
Fine payments received
$11.1m
$11.3m
2.1%


1,694
1,696
0.1%

Value of
Actual
Difference
$12.9m
9.5%
$11.5m
-1.4%


1,787
-5.1%

Number of
Fines remitted to community sentences
Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Fines imposed
$13.6m
$14.1m
3.9%
Fine payments received
$11.1m
$11.3m
2.1%


1,694
1,696
0.1%

Value of
Actual
Difference
$12.9m
9.5%
$11.5m
-1.4%


1,787
-5.1%

Number of
Fines remitted to community sentences
Page 10
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.6
Community sentences and related workload
Numbers of starts on community sentences
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Difference
Forecast
Actual
964
932
-3.3%
Community Detention
1,570
1,814
15.6%
Intensive Supervision
603
664
10.1%
Supervision
3,075
3,240
5.4%
Community Work
10,153
9,675
-4.7%
Total starts on non-custodial sentences
16,364
16,325
-0.2%
Number of 'starts' on
Home Detention






Actual
Difference
875
6.5%
1,509
20.2%
646
2.8%
2,956
9.6%
10,352
-6.5%
16,338
-0.1%






Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Difference
Forecast
Actual
964
932
-3.3%
Community Detention
1,570
1,814
15.6%
Intensive Supervision
603
664
10.1%
Supervision
3,075
3,240
5.4%
Community Work
10,153
9,675
-4.7%
Total starts on non-custodial sentences
16,364
16,325
-0.2%
Number of 'starts' on
Home Detention






Actual
Difference
875
6.5%
1,509
20.2%
646
2.8%
2,956
9.6%
10,352
-6.5%
16,338
-0.1%






Page 11
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Community sentence musters
At end of current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Home Detention
1,672
1,645
-1.6%
Community Detention
1,837
2,194
19.4%
Intensive Supervision
2,514
2,515
0.0%
Supervision
8,345
8,408
0.8%
Community Work
Total muster on non-custodial
sentences
18,418
18,647
1.2%
32,786
33,409
1.9%
Muster numbers






Actual
Difference
1,470
11.9%
1,782
23.1%
2,537
-0.9%
7,969
5.5%
21,679
-14.0%
35,437
-5.7%






Numbers of starts on post-sentence management
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Difference
Forecast
Actual
Parole
534
535
0.2%
Release on Conditions
964
975
1.1%
Post-Detention Conditions
596
604
1.3%
2,094
2,114
0.9%
Number of 'starts' on
Total starts on non-custodial orders
Page 12




Actual
Difference
512
4.5%
1,070
-8.9%
590
2.4%
2,172
-2.7%




JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Difference
Forecast
Actual
Parole
534
535
0.2%
Release on Conditions
964
975
1.1%
Post-Detention Conditions
596
604
1.3%
2,094
2,114
0.9%
Number of 'starts' on
Total starts on non-custodial orders
Actual




Difference
512
4.5%
1,070
-8.9%
590
2.4%
2,172
-2.7%




Musters on post-sentence management
At end of current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Parole
2,177
2,143
-1.6%
Release on conditions
3,378
3,316
-1.8%
Post-Detention Conditions
1,220
1,220
0.0%
Extended Supervision
195
205
5.1%
Life Parole
Total muster on non-custodial
orders
256
258
0.8%
7,226
7,142
-1.2%
Muster numbers






Actual
Difference
2,045
4.8%
3,497
-5.2%
1,256
-2.9%
187
9.6%
257
0.4%
7,242
-1.4%






Page 13
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Provision of Information
Current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Court Servicing Hours
25,695
28,036
9.1%
Pre-release enquiries
1,456
1,632
12.1%
Home Leave reports
54
65
20.9%
Parole Progress Reports
119
83
-30.2%
Number of




Actual
Difference
26,106
7.4%
1,567
4.1%
55
18.2%
85
-2.4%




Year to date
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Court Servicing Hours
25,695
28,036
9.1%
Pre-release enquiries
1,456
1,632
12.1%
Home Leave reports
54
65
20.9%
Parole Progress Reports
119
83
-30.2%
Number of
Page 14




Actual
Difference
26,106
7.4%
1,567
4.1%
55
18.2%
85
-2.4%




JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.7
Prison population
At end of current quarter
2012-2013
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Remand prisoners
1,931
1,807
-6.4%
Sentenced prisoners
6,779
6,855
1.1%
Total population
8,710
8,662
-0.6%
Number of
1.8



Actual
Difference
1,825
-1.0%
6,770
1.3%
8,595
0.8%



Legal Aid
Current quarter
2012-2013
Expenditure
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
$35.6m
$32.1m
-9.8%

Difference
Actual
$38.2m
-16.0%

Year to date
2012-2013
Expenditure
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
Difference
$35.6m
$32.1m
-9.8%

Actual
$38.2m
Difference
-16.0%

Page 15
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
2.
Focus: The fall in prosecutions
Purpose
The last two years have seen a drop of greater than 20% in the number of prosecutions. The
key implication for a forecast is whether, and for how long, this trend will continue. To decide on
what trend we assume for the future we need to look at what is causing the drop, and whether it
can be sustained.
The fall in prosecutions is due partly to the alternative resolution strand of the police initiative
‘Policing Excellence’ introduced in 2009. There is also an ongoing fall in recorded crime (seen
both in New Zealand and internationally) which is contributing to the fall in prosecutions.
The overall fall in prosecutions from all causes is the key driver of the forecast for the rest of the
system. It has occurred across nearly all offence categories, but not to the same extent in every
type of offence. Looking at the different falls in different offence categories can tell us something
about the progress of the drop in prosecutions, and whether it can be sustained in the future.
Offence categorisation
Crimes in New Zealand are grouped under the Australia and New Zealand Standard Offence
Classification (ANZSOC). ANZSOC has 16 divisions, beginning with Homicide and working
through to Miscellaneous Offences.1 Each individual division includes a range of offences of
varying degrees of seriousness – for example, ‘Acts Intended to cause Injury’ splits offending as
to whether or not injury was caused in a serious assault, and adds a subdivision of Common
Assault for all less serious assaults. The offences covered by ‘Acts intended to cause Injury’ will
result in a range of sentences from lengthy prison terms to conviction and discharge.
If we assume that the appropriate use of alternatives to prosecution will generally lead to minor
offences not being prosecuted and that all ANZSOC divisions bar Homicide include such
relatively minor offending, then we can expect any division other than Homicide to show a
reduction.2
Differences between offence divisions
Sexual Offences is the only ANZSOC division to show a rise (7% between 2009-2010 and 20112012). It is a division particularly subject to fluctuations in reporting, and it is impossible to tell
whether this small rise reflects a change in the amount of offending or an increase in the amount
of reporting.
1
A full list of offence divisions and more
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/1234.0.
2
The Homicide division has fallen from a peak of 476 in 1988-1989 to 121 in 2011-2012, as part of the ongoing
fall in recorded crime.
Page 16
details
about
ANZSOC
can
be
found
at:
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Table 1 shows that in some divisions (such as Dangerous Acts or Drugs) we observe falls of 2030%. The total fall in charges between the two years is 21%, with the largest single fall – in the
Public Order division – three times that. A closer look at Public Order offending may give more
information about how much the alternative resolution initiative and the ongoing drop in recorded
crime have variously contributed to the fall in charges.
Table 1: Numbers of charges per annum by ANZSOC division
ANZSOC Division
2009-10
2011-12
Difference
190
121
-36%
22,901
18,853
-18%
1,678
1,793
7%
12,365
8,859
-28%
Abduction
2,791
2,304
-17%
Robbery
1,541
1,402
-9%
Burglary
7,032
6,611
-6%
Theft
19,094
15,346
-20%
Fraud
4,060
3,728
-8%
Drugs
10,988
7,991
-27%
Weapons
3,322
2,698
-19%
Property damage
7,361
5,896
-20%
Public order
23,796
8,922
-63%
Traffic
48,834
43,792
-10%
Against justice
42,416
37,195
-12%
Miscellaneous
2,160
1,799
-17%
210,529
167,310
-21%
Homicide
Injury causing
Sexual
Dangerous acts
Total
Public Order offending
ANZSOC defines Public Order offences as “Offences relating to personal conduct that involves,
or may lead to, a breach of public order or decency, or that is indicative of criminal intent, or that
is otherwise regulated or prohibited on moral or ethical grounds.” It is a very broad division, but
there are some key offences within it that provide clear indications of how a policy to use
alternatives to prosecution is being applied.
Figure 1 shows the trends in three main subdivisions of Public Order charges, plus a more
general ‘Other’ group that gathers together all other charges in the division. The key elements of
the fall in public order charges:

Disorderly behaviour: recorded crimes down 7.2%, and charges down 75% since 2009.
Police increasingly intervene before situations become serious, and warn rather than
prosecute where some more formal response is required.
Page 17
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update

Sale of liquor: recorded crimes down 8.4%, and charges down 86% since 2009.
Prosecutions increased substantially through aggressive enforcement of ‘liquor ban’
breaches – the use of alternatives to prosecution has reversed that trend. This offence
will be dealt with by infringement notice rather than prosecution from 2013, but numbers
are already so low that any further reduction in prosecutions will be minor.

Trespass: recorded crimes down 14.4%, and charges down 37% since 2009. This may
be linked to disorderly behaviour – if someone is apprehended after entering private
property while drunk, then both charges may be brought. Again a move away from
prosecution as a preferred response is strongly suggested.
Figure 1: Changes in numbers of Public Order charges
3,500
ANZSOC Public Order charges
3,000
Number of charges
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Jun 1990
Jun 1996
Jun 2002
Jun 2008
Quarter
Disorderly behaviour
Sale of liquor
Trespassing
All others
The future
It is unlikely that the use of alternatives to prosecution will generate falls of this size in the future.
But Public Order is only one category of offence, and it is particularly affected by the alternative
resolution initiative. Other categories of offence will continue to be affected by the anticipated
ongoing longer-term fall in recorded crime. The Policing Excellence initiative is now focusing on
crime prevention rather than alternative resolution, so future falls will derive from a drop in crime
rather than a change in prosecution practice. A further consideration is the ongoing change in
demographics towards an older population. Taken together these trends justify the continued
assumption of a fall in prosecutions that underpins the 2012-2022 Justice Sector Forecast.
Page 18
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
3.
Historical and international context
The following graph looks at the prison population forecast in the context of a three decade trend
in actual prisoner numbers. Key legislative items are highlighted. The Criminal Justice Act of
1985 was followed by Criminal Justice Amendment Acts in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1998, 1999 and
2001.
Prison population 1980 - 2022
10,000
9,000
Sentencing
and Parole
Acts 2002
Prison population
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Criminal
Justice Act
1985
New non-custodial
sentences 2007
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Monthly data
Actual
Forecast
Page 19
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
The following graph compares the incarceration rates per 100,000 people for a selection of
Commonwealth and European countries. A further comparison country – the USA – currently
has a rate of 730 people incarcerated per 100,000 people (2010 figures). Showing this value on
the above graph would change the scale and hide the detail between the other comparison
countries.3
Comparative incarceration rates per 100,000 people
250
Incarceration rate
200
150
100
50
0
Annual data
Australia
3
England/Wales
Scotland
Canada
Sweden
Netherlands
NZ
Projections of the incarceration rate from 2010 onwards are shown for UK countries: these projections are
based on average values for projections of the relevant prison and total populations.
Page 20
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
4.
Summary graphs
Total prisoner numbers
Total prison population
9,500
Persons incarcerated
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
Monthly data
Total Actual
Forecast
Page 21
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Remand prisoner numbers
Remand prisoner numbers
Persons incarcerated
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Monthly data
Remand Actual
Forecast
Sentenced prisoner numbers
Sentenced prisoner numbers
7,500
Persons incarcerated
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Monthly data
Sentenced Actual
Page 22
Forecast
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Starts on community sentences
Total starts on community sentences
7,000
Number of starts
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Monthly data
Total community sentences
Forecast
Legal aid expenditure
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
50
45
40
$m
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Quarterly data
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
Forecast
Page 23
5.
Forecast drivers
Assumptions
Driver
2012 assumption
2011 assumption
Numbers entering the courts
system (number of charging
events)
Change in number of charging events:
Change in number of charging events:
-1.7% in 2012-2013
-1.3% in 2013-2014
-1.3% in 2014-2015
-1.9% per annum thereafter
 Lower than 2011 assumption
Reflects numbers entering the courts system
-5.8% in 2011-2012
-0.5% in 2012-2013
-0.5% in 2013-2014
-0.5% in 2014-2015
-1.0% per annum thereafter
Reflects numbers entering the courts system
Prosecutions (disposals)
 Lower than 2011 assumption
Proportion of people remanded in Level at 7.5% throughout the forecast period
custody
 Higher than 2011 assumption
Average time spent on custodial Rise to 65-66 days by end 2012, remain there for a year, then
remand
fall to 58 days over a two-year period
 Higher than 2011 assumption
Proportion of people convicted
Rise to 79% by 2016-2017 and stay at that level throughout
the remainder of the forecast period
 Higher than 2011 assumption
Proportion of those convicted
Other: constant at 14.8%
given each sentence type
Monetary: declining to 35.4% over four years
CPS: rising to 41.4% over four years
Prison: constant at 8.4%
 Continuing swap between CPS and Monetary; prison
slightly higher than 2011 assumption
Length of sentence imposed
Constant
 Same as 2011 assumption
Proportion of prison sentence
Constant at 74%
served (including remand)
 Higher than 2011 assumption
Page 24
Level at 7.2% throughout the forecast period
Remain constant at current level (56.5 days)
Rise to 75% in 2012-2013 and stay at that level throughout
the remainder of the forecast period
Other: constant at 14.8%
Monetary: declining to 37.5% over four years
CPS: rising to 39.5% over four years
Prison: constant at 8.2%
Constant
Constant at 72%
5.1
Numbers in the court system
Analysis
The number of people in the courts system (as measured by the number of court disposals) is
5% below expectations for the first quarter of the 2012-2013 fiscal year. The total for the quarter
is 9% down on the same period last year.
Court disposals
20,000
Numbers disposed
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
Monthly data
Court disposals
Forecast
Data notes
Numbers in the court system measures the number of people passing through the criminal court
system by the number of ‘charging events’, defined as one person being dealt with for one or
more offences on a single day. This is a disposal measure, chosen because of the need to relate
court workload to numbers of people entering the courts to the numbers moving on to various
sentences. Cases split and merge during their progress through the courts system, so the
number of disposals is not the same as the number of prosecutions. However, the two behave
very similarly, so the quantity in the above graph is also a measure of the numbers entering.
Changes in numbers charged could reflect changes in any or all of offending patterns, activities
of enforcement agencies, and charging practices. Volatility in numbers charged reflects the range
of factors influencing it. The updates for the 2012-2013 forecast include a simple expression of
the seasonal behaviour of this quantity in the forecast numbers.
Page 25
5.2
Proportion remanded in custody
Analysis
The proportion remanded in custody is lower than the expected value, and the overall reduction
in numbers in the system means the absolute number of remand ‘starts’ is also down. The
average remand rate over the quarter has been 7.5% against an expected value of 7.8%. The
rate for the same period last year was also 7.5%.
Proportion remanded in custody
Numbers remanded
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
Remand rate
Forecast
Data notes
Proportion remanded in custody measures the number of new remand prisoners as a proportion
of court disposals in a given month. A new remand prisoner is one received at a prison
establishment (i.e. remand prisoners in police cells are excluded). The decision to remand in
custody instead of releasing on bail depends on the nature of offences and the characteristics of
individual defendants. Decisions on whether to release are affected by existing case law as well
as legislation. External events, such as high-profile crimes committed while on bail, may also
influence decisions on whether to grant or refuse bail.
Since determining the assumption for the 2012-2022 forecast, we have further improved the
model’s handling of remanded offenders. This has had the effect of increasing the historical
numbers by around 0.3 percentage points on average. The original assumption of a remand rate
of 7.5% (which was based on pre-improvement data) has been increased by the same amount to
7.8%. Future assumptions will be set using the new data.
Page 26
5.3
Time on custodial remand
Analysis
The average time spent on remand during the quarter is 60.3 days, below the forecast value of
64.5 days. It is about five days higher than the average time for the same period last year.
Time on remand
70
65
60
Days
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Monthly data
Average time on remand
Forecast
Data notes
Time on custodial remand is shown as the average length of time for all people who complete
their remand period in a given month. Other measures of time spent on remand are also
monitored.
Page 27
5.4
Proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction
Analysis
The proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction is below expectations, and is also below
the value for the same period last year. There are indications that the long-term steady increase
in this quantity may be easing off.
Proportion Convicted
100%
Proportion (%)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
Proportion convicted
Forecast
Data notes
The proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction is considered a minor driver, because it has
been relatively stable over time. This driver has a seasonal element of a peak in January. This
seems to be a reflection of the increased number of drink-drive offences that are cleared up at
that time of year. These offences have a higher rate of conviction because the use of
breathalysers at roadside stops means the cases are identified and effectively resolved at the
same moment.
Page 28
5.5
Proportion of those convicted given different sentences
Overview
The driver behind the numbers of different types of sentence imposed is the most complex.
In effect, it is multiple drivers, one for each of the four main types of sentence (prison,
community, monetary and other). All four drivers must be combined to give a result that fits
with the number of people being convicted, which has been fixed by the drivers earlier in the
system. We work with proportions, although ultimately we will revert to actual numbers of
people in order to calculate muster numbers and numbers of starts.
The process, then, is to make assumptions about trends in usage of three individual
sentence types. This constrains the fourth, and a key ‘sanity check’ is to examine that
constrained trend to see whether it is credible. If not, then the other three trends must be
revisited, new assumptions made, and the process repeated.
Sentence distribution
100%
90%
Proportion (%)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
Imprisonment
Community
Monetary
Other
This graph shows the actual proportions of the four types of sentence over time, along with
the projection for the forecast. It is clear that the introduction of new types of community
sentence in 2007 had a clear impact on community sentences, increasing the proportion of
these at the expense of both fines (particularly) and prison sentences. Another key pattern
(and one the forecast assumptions maintain) is that the total proportion of monetary and
community sentences is quite stable, between about 75% and 80%.
The next four graphs look at each sentence type in turn. We attempt to count individuals as
much as possible, so it is the most serious sentence someone receives on a given day that
determines the category they fall into in this section. For example, someone receiving, on
the same day, sentences of community work, supervision and a fine would appear here
once, under ‘community sentence’.
Page 29
Analysis
The proportion of offenders receiving sentences classified as ‘other’ is below expectations.
18%
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of an other
sentence
Proportion (%)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
%age other
Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a monetary sentence as their most severe sanction
remains slightly below expectations, continuing the long-term decline.
Proportion (%)
70%
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of a monetary
sentence
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
%age fined
Page 30
Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a community sentence as their most severe sanction
continues to be above expectations. Community and monetary sentences are closely linked with
a rise in one generally mirrored by a similarly-sized fall in the other.
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of a Community
sentence
Proportion (%)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Monthly data
%age Community
Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a prison sentence as their most severe sanction is in line
with expectations.
Proportion sentenced to a maximum sentence of a prison sentence
14%
Proportion (%)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
%age jailed
Forecast
Page 31
Data notes
Proportion of those convicted measures those offenders who are given different types of
sentence in the categories: custodial, community, monetary and other (in decreasing order of
seriousness). ‘Other’ sentences are principally ‘conviction and discharge’ – it is possible that
some of these offenders may be required to pay reparation, but that does not count as a
monetary penalty for these graphs. Offenders may be given more than one type of sentence if
they face more than one charge – in these graphs, only the most serious charge counts.
Offenders may also be given more than one sentence in a given category at a single sentencing
event.
Page 32
5.6
Length of prison sentence imposed
Analysis
The average lengths imposed for both longer (greater than two years) and shorter (two years or
less) prison sentences are close to expectations.
The average time imposed in sentences of greater than two years has been steadily declining for
some years, and the current quarter is 4.5% down on the same period last year. Such sentences
are the sentences covered by the assumption regarding proportion served (see section 5.7) –
that proportion has increased substantially over the same period. The consequence is that
actual time served has increased.
Average length of sentence imposed
2,500
Days
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Av sentence more than 2 years
Av sentence more than 2 years - forecast
Av sentence 2 years or less
Av sentence 2 years or less - forecast
Data notes
Length of sentence imposed has been broken down into a number of categories looking at
sentences of different length. An average value for each category is forecast, and the actual
value over the year to date for that category is compared to it. For reporting purposes, these
figures are aggregated to give values for all sentences of two years or less and for sentences
greater than two years.
Page 33
5.7
Proportion of prison sentence served
Analysis
The total proportion of prison sentence served had been increasing for several years but reached
a plateau around 2008. It has continued above the forecast level for the first quarter, which may
represent a further small step upwards.
Proportion of sentence served excluding time on remand
80%
75%
70%
Proportion (%)
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
Monthly data
Proportion served
Forecast
Data notes
Proportion of sentence served measures the average proportion of the sentence imposed that is
served for sentences longer than two years (sentences of two years or less are subject to
automatic release at the 50% point). The driver used to develop the forecast tracks the average
proportion served (excluding remand) for different sentence lengths separately. In this update the
driver is represented as an aggregate over all sentence lengths greater than two years. The
proportion served including remand has stayed around 10 percentage points higher than that
excluding remand over a long period of time. For technical reasons associated with producing a
separate remand population, the forecast model decouples the remand and sentenced periods,
and thus is based on the proportion excluding remand.
Since determining the assumption for the 2012-2022 forecast, we have further improved the
model’s handling of offenders formally recalled to prison after early release. This has had the
effect of increasing the historical numbers by around 8.5 percentage points on average. The
original assumption of 64% served (which was based on pre-improvement data) has been
increased by the same amount to 72.5%. Future assumptions will be set using the new data.
Page 34
6.
6.1
Crown Law inflow and caseload
Crown Law case inflow
Analysis
Crown Law case inflow was 9% below the forecast level for the quarter, and 10% down on the
same period last year.
Crown Law case inflow
1,200
Number of cases
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Crown Law case inflow
Forecast
Data notes
Crown Law inflow and caseload measure the number of more serious cases that are handled by
Crown Law solicitors. These include, for example, all indictable-only cases and appeals. The
different types of case handled by Crown Law take different lengths of time, and an inflow
measure alone does not give a full indication of the workload faced. The active caseload
measure is obtained by combining projections of both inflow and time taken for the different types
of case.
Page 35
6.2
Crown Law active caseload
Analysis
Crown Law active caseload is 7% below the forecast level, and the number of active cases at the
end of the quarter was almost exactly the same as at the same date a year earlier.
Crown Law active caseload
4,500
Number of cases
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Crown Law active caseload
Data notes
Refer to section 6.1
Page 36
Forecast
7.
7.1
Pre-sentence reports
Written Reports
Analysis
Written reports are very close to the forecast value, and a little down on the same period last
year.
Number of written pre-sentence reports
3,500
Number of reports
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Written reports
Forecast
Data notes
Number of written pre-sentence reports is a count of the number of such reports completed in the
given month. The total includes the ‘Provision of Advice’ (PoA) report to court, phased in since
November 2011. (The December 2011 and March 2012 updates did not include PoA report
numbers, and thus the numbers from November 2011 are higher in this report than in its
predecessors.) The PoA report has almost entirely replaced the pre-existing full and short
reports, and will be the basis for the forecast from now on.
Number of oral pre-sentence reports is a count of the number of such reports completed in the
given month. An oral report is prepared when a judge requests information to be provided
immediately.
Page 37
7.2
Oral reports
Analysis
Oral reports for the quarter are well below forecast, and substantially below the figures for the
same period last year. The total number of reports – oral and written – is below expectations.
Number of oral pre-sentence reports
3,000
Number of reports
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Oral reports
Data notes
Refer to section 7.1
Page 38
Forecast
8.
Monetary penalties
The forecast quantities are monetary penalties imposed and the amount of money collected from
those penalties. The forecast currently concentrates on the criminal courts. The monetary
penalties included are those fines associated with police-originated prosecutions in the criminal
courts.
8.1
Amount imposed
Analysis
The amount of fines imposed is 4% above the forecast level for the quarter, and almost 10% up
on the same period last year. This is despite the continuing drop in cases passing through the
system (section 1.1), and the drop in the use of fines as a sentence (section 5.5). The total
amount imposed is being kept higher by an increase in the average amount of fine imposed.
Imposed monetary penalties
7
6
$m
5
4
3
2
1
0
Monthly data
Impositions
Forecast
Data notes
Monetary penalties: amount imposed and amount received measure the total dollar value of
monetary penalties imposed and collected during the quarter. The totals are made up of: fines,
court costs, enforcement costs, confiscation costs, offender levy and payments made to a third
party. The penalties involved are those associated with police-originated cases in the criminal
court, as this is the part of Collections business involved in the remainder of the forecast.
Monetary penalties are frequently paid off by instalments so the receipts in a given month will not
precisely relate to the amounts imposed in that month. The database supplying these data is a
live one, and one quarter’s values may change in subsequent quarters as the imposition and
collection processes are carried through to completion. The latest data should therefore always
be treated as provisional.
Page 39
8.2
Amount received
Analysis
The amount of fine receipts is a little higher than the forecast level, though slightly down on the
same period last year.
Receipts of monetary penalties
5.0
4.5
4.0
$m
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Monthly data
Receipts
Data notes
Refer to section 8.1
Page 40
Forecast
8.3
Remittals to Community Work sentences
Analysis
The number of monetary penalties remitted to Community Work sentences is almost exactly the
forecast value (1,696 as opposed to a forecast of 1,694) and 5% below the number for the same
period last year.
Remittals to community work sentences
1,000
Number of remittals
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Remittals
Forecast
Data notes
Remittals to Community Work sentences measures an additional source of workload for the
Department of Corrections that does not appear via standard sentencing data.
People who do not pay fines may have them remitted to other sentences. We are interested here
in the sentence of Community Work. Offenders whose fines are remitted to more serious
sentence types will be receiving a separate sentence of that type for subsequent offending and
will thus be counted in the forecast under that sentence. (The sentence for fine default will be an
additional amount that may be served concurrently or cumulatively.)
Fine defaulters remitted to Community Work sentences, however, generally have not re-offended
and are thus not picked up in the court disposals counted in section 1.1. Numbers of these
remittals are thus also forecast, as they produce a substantial number of people with sentences
to be managed by the Department of Corrections.
Page 41
9.
Community sentences and related workload
This section is split into three categories:

Community sentences

Post-sentence management

Provision of Information
9.1
Community sentences
Projections are made for starts and musters in the following Department of Corrections
supervised sentences:

Home Detention

Community Detention

Intensive Supervision

Supervision

Community Work
The data for a number of these outcomes are problematic for a variety of reasons, including high
volatility, small sample size, and limited historical data. These reasons can make projection
difficult.
The discussion in section 5.5 looked at the proportion of individual convicted offenders receiving
community sentences. This analysis is essential in maintaining an overview of the numbers of
people passing through the system. Once the actual operation of sentences is being forecast,
the number of starts on each sentence becomes more important. That is because individual
offenders are frequently given more than one community sentence on a single occasion. This
may be because they are facing more than one charge and different sentences are given for
each convicted charge. But single charges can also attract multiple sentences, most commonly
the pairing of Community Work and Supervision. Each start of a sentence represents a unit of
work for the Department of Corrections, which the forecast needs to reflect.
For this reason, the forecast projects the number of starts on community sentences as well as a
‘muster’ for each sentence. This also applies to the post-sentence management orders.
Page 42
Home Detention Analysis
Home Detention starts are below forecast for the quarter, but higher than the same period last
year.
Home Detention starts
450
Number of starts
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Home Detention
Forecast
Home Detention muster
2,000
Number on muster
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Home Detention
Forecast
Page 43
Community Detention Analysis
The forecast for Community Detention sentences was adjusted upwards in the 2012-2022
forecast, but the number of starts and the muster on Community Detention continue to be above
their new forecast values. The current numbers are already at the level expected to be reached
early in 2014.
Community Detention starts
800
Number of starts
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Community Detention
Forecast
Community Detention muster
3,000
Number on muster
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Community Detention
Page 44
Forecast
Intensive Supervision Analysis
The number of starts on Intensive Supervision is above its forecast value, and ahead of the same
period last year. The muster number is almost exactly the forecast value, and slightly down on
the same time last year.
Intensive Supervision starts
300
Number of starts
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Intensive Supervision
Forecast
Intensive Supervision muster
3,000
Number on muster
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Intensive Supervision
Forecast
Page 45
Supervision Analysis
The number of starts on Supervision sentences is both ahead of its forecast value and also
greater than the number of starts in the same period last year. The Supervision muster is close
to expectations.
Supervision starts
1,600
Number of starts
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Supervision starts
Forecast
Supervision muster
12,000
Number on muster
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Monthly data
Supervision
Forecast
Community Work Analysis
The number of starts on Community Work sentences is below its forecast value and down on the
same period last year. The Community Work muster is falling, but is close to its forecast value.
Page 46
Only Home Detention and Community Work starts are below forecast, but as Community Work is
by some way the largest single component of community sentences, the overall number of starts
on community sentences is very close to its forecast value for the quarter. The overall community
sentence muster is also very close to its expected value.
Community Work starts
4,500
Number of starts
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Community Work
Forecast
Community Work muster
30,000
Number on muster
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Monthly data
Community Work
Forecast
Data notes
Starts and muster values each comprise a count of new sentences of the relevant type
commenced in the given month, and a count of the number of offenders actively serving such a
sentence at the end of the month respectively. Home Detention, Community Detention and
Page 47
Intensive Supervision sentences were introduced in October 2007, which means there are limited
historical data, and that the future projections and seasonality components are not as reliable as
those for Community Work and Supervision.
Page 48
9.2
Post-sentence management
Projections are made for starts and musters in the following post-sentence orders:

Parole

Release on Conditions

Post-detention Conditions

Extended Supervision

Life Parole
Parole Analysis
The number of starts on Parole is very close to its forecast value, as is the muster number.
Parole starts
300
Number of starts
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Parole
Forecast
Page 49
Parole muster
3,000
Number on muster
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Parole
Forecast
Release on Conditions Analysis
The number of new Release on Conditions orders in the quarter was very close to the forecast
value, and down on the same period last year. The muster was slightly below forecast, and also
below last year’s level.
Release on Conditions starts
600
Number of starts
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Release on Conditions
Page 50
Forecast
Release on Conditions muster
4,500
Number on muster
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Release on Conditions
Forecast
Post-Detention Conditions Analysis
The number of new Post-detention Conditions orders was above forecast for the quarter, and
also above the number for the same period last year. The muster number was exactly the same
as forecast, and below the number at the same time last year.
Post-detention Conditions starts
350
Number of starts
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Post Detention Conditions
Forecast
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Post-detention Conditions muster
1,600
Number on muster
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Post Detention Conditions
Forecast
Life Parole and Extended Supervision Analysis
Releases on Life Parole releases are ahead of expectations, while those on Extended
Supervision are below the forecast value. The Life Parole muster is close to expectations, while
the Extended Supervision muster is higher than expected.
There are very small numbers involved in these categories, and the orders involved are generally
for very long periods. Small changes in the periods involved can affect the muster more than the
number of starts.
Order
Life Parole
Extended Supervision
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Expected annual
numbers
12 months
to date
41
49
36
27
Life Parole and Extended Supervision musters
400
Number on muster
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Life Parole
Life Parole Forecast
Extended Supervision
Extended Supervision Forecast
Data notes
Starts and muster values each comprise a count of new orders of the relevant type commenced
in the given month, and a count of the number of offenders actively serving such an order at the
end of the month respectively.
Release on Conditions: The vast majority of cases are for sentences of less than two years, with
conditions being set by the judge. These are the cases counted here. A small number of cases
subject to a process called ‘release on conditions’ are for longer sentences. These are cases
where the Parole Board has no discretion to release an offender. The offender must be released
by law, and the Board’s only role is to set the conditions of the offender’s release. These cases
are treated as parole cases by the Department of Corrections, and are counted in Parole at the
start of this section.
Life Parole and Extended Supervision: these two outcomes occur only a few times a month, in
quantities too small to be used in time series analysis. Aggregating monthly values to a yearly
total provides a larger value, but drastically shortens the time series. The projection therefore
consists of the average value of recent years. Consequently starts on these orders are likely to
exhibit a large amount of fluctuation. Because many of these released prisoners spend a
considerable time on these orders, the muster numbers are more easily forecast, although the
available data for the Life Parole muster is the shortest, and therefore most limiting, used in the
forecast. Offenders were first put on Extended Supervision orders in 2007, with orders being for
up to ten years. Very few offenders have completed these orders to date. The upward step in
the Extended Supervision muster shortly after June 2011 is as a result of a data review that
revealed a small amount of under-recording during 2011.
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9.3
Provision of Information
Projections are made for numbers or hours for the following information provision processes:

Court Servicing Hours

Pre-release Enquiries

Home Leave Reports

Parole Condition Progress Reports
Court Servicing Hours Analysis
Court Servicing Hours are ahead of expectations in the latest quarter, and also above the value
for the same period last year.
Court Servicing Hours
12,000
Hours
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Monthly data
Court Servicing Hours
Forecast
Data notes
Court Servicing Hours are a measure of the time probation officers spend at court. Important
court functions include appearing as a prosecutor for breaches of community sentences and
other applications by the Department of Corrections, providing information to the judges/court
users, and attendance at any court where Home Detention sentencing is taking place to receive
instructions in regard to the immediate activation of the sentence.
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Pre-release Enquiries Analysis
Pre-release Enquiries are above expectations in the latest quarter and slightly above the number
for the same period last year.
Pre-release Enquiries
700
Number of reports
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Pre-release enquiries
Forecast
Data notes
Pre-release Enquiries are reports to prepare for an offender’s appearance before the Parole
Board.
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Home Leave Reports Analysis
Home Leave Reports in the latest quarter were ahead of their expected value, and also ahead of
the number in the same period last year. There are relatively few such reports each month,
which often leads to unusually volatile behaviour as seen here, where the extremely high
numbers in October and November 2011 do not correspond to seasonal behaviour in the
available data. The numbers for the current quarter are within the values seen in previous
months – it is the seasonality (or lack of it) that is proving difficult to capture in the forecast.
Home Leave Reports
60
Number of reports
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monthly data
Home Leave reports
Forecast
Data notes
Home Leave Reports are reports to assess a prisoner’s suitability for a three-day period of home
release prior to the conclusion of their prison sentence.
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Parole Condition Progress Reports Analysis
Parole Condition Progress Reports continue to be volatile, and have currently dropped so that
the most recent quarter is about 30% below expectations. The number of reports in the current
quarter is very close to that in the same quarter last year. That low level was not, however,
sustained last year, and we will need further data to determine whether the current level is to
become the new trend.
Parole Condition Progress Reports
60
Number of reports
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monthly data
Parole Condition Progress Reports
Forecast
Data notes
Parole Condition Progress Reports are reports to the Parole Board to assess how well a paroled
offender is meeting any conditions the Board has imposed.
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10. Prison population
Analysis
The prison population was less than 1% below its forecast value at the end of September 2012.
This was a combination of the sentenced population being 1.1% above forecast and the remand
population 6.4% below forecast. The remand population is down due to the combination of fewer
disposals (see section 5.1) and an unusually low remand rate in August (see section 5.2).
Remand Population
Remand prisoner numbers
Persons incarcerated
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Monthly data
Remand Actual
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Forecast
Sentenced Population
Sentenced prisoner numbers
7,500
Persons incarcerated
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Monthly data
Sentenced Actual
Forecast
Total Population
Total prison population
9,500
Persons incarcerated
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
Monthly data
Total Actual
Forecast
Data notes
Prison numbers are counts of the numbers incarcerated. The monthly figure reported uses the
maximum total population figure in the last week of the relevant month, and the sentenced and
remand components are based on that figure.
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11. Legal Aid
The legal aid forecast is built up from projecting trends in component ‘matter categories’. In the
criminal jurisdiction, these categories are types of offence. Family jurisdiction categories include
matters such as care of children or mental health, while the categories in the civil jurisdiction
include ACC and refugee cases. It is important to work at this level of detail because costs,
numbers and trends vary greatly between categories (for example, a homicide case costs much
more, on average, than a property offence, although the latter is much more common).
When it comes to monitoring actual values against the forecast, it is impractical to report on
every single category (there are eighteen different categories across the criminal, family and civil
jurisdictions – monitoring grants, average costs and accrued expenditure for each would mean
54 separate graphs). Even monitoring at jurisdiction level would result in more than a dozen
graphs.
This report therefore monitors overall expenditure, while using information at jurisdiction and
matter category level to inform commentary on trends. Accrued expenditure for Waitangi
Tribunal cases, the duty solicitor scheme, and the police detention legal aid (PDLA) scheme also
inform the commentary.
Legal aid quantities were first added to the forecast in 2011, and we expect how we forecast and
monitor them to continue to develop as we learn more about their behaviour. The forecast
should be read with caution at this point as the full picture will not be clear until the end of the
financial year.
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11.1
Legal aid expenditure
Analysis
Legal aid expenditure (excluding the contribution from debt recovery) is about 10% below its
forecast value for the quarter and 16% below the amount for the same quarter last year. The
family jurisdiction was 11% below forecast for the quarter, the criminal jurisdiction 14% below
forecast for the quarter, with other grants (covering the civil jurisdiction, Waitangi Tribunal legal
aid and the duty solicitor and police detention legal aid (PDLA) schemes) 1.5% above forecast
for the quarter.
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
50
45
40
$m
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Quarterly data
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
Forecast
Data notes
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery is comprised of the total accrued and actual
expenditure. The total accrued expenditure is made up of the total expenditure under each
jurisdiction (criminal, family and civil) plus expenditure on Waitangi Tribunal cases, the duty
solicitor scheme, and the police detention legal aid (PDLA) scheme.
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12. Explanatory notes
Assumptions agreed between sector agencies
The assumptions for drivers underpinning the forecast were agreed by senior officials from the
New Zealand Police, Crown Law, the Ministry of Justice and the Department of Corrections in
June 20124.
Dates
The prison population numbers are based on the maximum number recorded in the week
containing the last day of the last month of the quarter.
Other numbers are based on the data from Police, Courts or Corrections for the calendar quarter.
Provisional data
We aim to circulate this update as soon as possible after the end of the quarter, but we have to
wait for regular data feeds and other processes to be completed.
These processes mean that this update should be published within eight weeks of the end of the
month in its title. For example, the December update should appear before the end of February.
Several databases supplying data are live ones, and one quarter’s values may change in
subsequent quarters as recording processes are carried through to completion. The latest data
should therefore always be treated as provisional.
Graph conventions
The 2012-2022 forecast incorporates various data quantities. The data sources for these
quantities cover a wide range of periods. It is not practical to standardise all graphs in the update
to cover the same period. Graphs within a single section will cover the same period.
Comparisons to driver expectations
For the drivers, the difference indicators (,and) are calculated from the expected values.
On occasion, where there is a point estimate (rather than a quarterly average or total) of a
volatile quantity, this may lead to an exaggerated difference, and the graph showing the overall
trend should always be consulted as well.
Note that where the driver is expressed as a rate, the divergence is expressed as a proportion of
that rate, not in terms of the absolute number of percentage points. For example, if the expected
rate is 50% and the actual is 52%, then the difference will be 4%, the difference between 52 and
50.
4
Subject to subsequent minor amendments, leading to the forecast being approved in September 2012.
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