Justice Sector Forecast 2011-2021
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Justice Sector
2011-2021
Forecast Update
Quarter ending September 2011
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Table of contents
Published by the Ministry of Justice in November 2011 © Crown Copyright
ISSN 1178-1424 (online)
Page 2
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
About this update
The Justice Sector Forecast represents a key instrument for strategic planning within the justice sector. The forecast is prepared annually by Justice Sector Strategy within the Ministry of
Justice, in collaboration with representatives from across the sector, including: New Zealand
Police, the Department of Corrections, the Legal Services Group and Crown Law.
This report, which is the first update on the 2011 Justice Sector Forecast, compares actual outcomes against forecast outcomes for each of the following:
Numbers of summary and committal cases for 2011-2015.
Numbers of new cases and cases on hand requiring the participation of Crown Law solicitors.
Number of pre-sentence reports provided to courts by probation officers for 2011-2015.
Amount of fines imposed and the amount of payments received for police-originated cases in the criminal court.
Number of fine defaulters resentenced to Community Work.
Numbers of non-custodial sentences and orders for 2011-2015. The non-custodial sentences and orders included are those overseen by Community Probation Services
(CPS). Forecasts are presented for both numbers starting these sentences and orders, and for the numbers subject to them at any one time (the ‘muster’).
Numbers of reports from the CPS providing information to courts and to the Parole Board.
Remand and sentenced prison population for 2011-2021.
Accrued expenditure on Legal Aid for 2011-2016.
In addition, actual outcomes for each of the forecast’s key drivers are compared with the assumptions agreed to by the justice sector agencies.
This update is produced quarterly – that is, for the quarters ending 30 September, 31 December,
31 March, and 30 June each year. The explanatory notes in section 11 give details of the
assumptions underpinning the forecast and of all the conventions used in the graphs and tables in this update.
Page 3
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
1. Overview
1.1 Headlines
District Court summary cases are 5% below forecast, while committal cases are 13% above.
Crown Law case inflow is 6% above forecast, though their cases on hand are as forecast.
Written pre-sentence reports are 7% below forecast; oral reports are 2% above forecast.
Imposed fines are at the forecast value, while fine receipts are 1% below.
The number of fine defaulters remitted to Community Work sentences is 9% below forecast.
CPS sentences are 7% below forecast overall. The largest discrepancy is in Community
Work sentences (10% below forecast). Community Detention sentences are the only sentences within the forecast range; all other sentences are below forecast.
CPS sentence musters are generally slightly below forecast by 1-2%, with the exception of the Intensive Supervision muster, which is 1% above forecast.
Starts on court orders overseen by CPS are 12% below forecast, although musters are down by only 2%.
The numbers of reports by the CPS to the court and Parole Board are all well below their forecast values.
Remand prisoner population is 0.6% below forecast.
Sentenced prisoner population is 2.3% below forecast.
Total prison population is 1.9% below forecast.
Legal aid expenditure (excluding debt recovery) is 8% below forecast.
The first report against a new forecast contains limited information, as trends against the new forecast have yet to establish themselves. The principal points of interest this quarter are:
Most quantities are below forecast suggesting that overall trends continue to be downwards.
In some cases, such as CPS sentences, there is currently a greater shortfall in starts than in muster numbers. Muster numbers change more slowly than starts, so the current situation suggests that future reports will show a larger shortfall in muster numbers as the current fall in starts works its way through.
The key drivers of the forecast are generally following expected trends.
Committal cases in the District Court are 13% above forecast, which may also explain why
Crown Law case inflow is above forecast. These are the only items to show a notable increase, and will thus be kept under observation. However, the overall total of District
Court cases is 4.6% below expectations, so this represents a small quantity above forecast within an overall situation that is below forecast.
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JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
1.2 Summary of drivers
Current quarter
Driver
Court disposals
Proportion remanded
Time on remand (days)
Proportion convicted
Proportion of convictions resulting in a custodial sentence
Proportion of convictions resulting in a CPS sentence
Proportion of convictions resulting in a monetary sentence
Proportion of convictions resulting in other sentences
Av. sentence imposed (days): less than or equal to 2 years
Av. sentence imposed (days): greater than 2 years
Proportion of sentence served including remand
Expectation
38,915
7.2%
57
74.0%
8.2%
38.0%
39.0%
14.8%
261
1,559
62.0%
Year to date
Driver
Court disposals
Proportion remanded
Time on remand (days)
Proportion convicted
Proportion of convictions resulting in a custodial sentence
Proportion of convictions resulting in a CPS sentence
Proportion of convictions resulting in a monetary sentence
Proportion of convictions resulting in other sentences
Av. sentence imposed (days): less than or equal to 2 years
Av. sentence imposed (days): greater than 2 years
Proportion of sentence served including remand
Expectation
38,915
7.2%
57
74.0%
8.2%
38.0%
39.0%
14.8%
261
1,559
62.0%
Actual
40,894
7.1%
60
73.9%
7.8%
38.1%
38.0%
16.1%
253
1,520
63.0%
Actual
40,894
7.1%
60
73.9%
7.8%
38.1%
38.0%
16.1%
253
1,520
63.0%
Difference
5.1%
-1.9%
5.7%
-0.2%
-5.2%
0.3%
-2.5%
8.5%
-3.1%
-2.5%
1.6%
Difference
5.1%
-1.9%
5.7%
-0.2%
-5.2%
0.3%
-2.5%
8.5%
-3.1%
-2.5%
1.6%
Legend
= Actual exceeds forecast by more than 3%
= Actual is within +/-3% of forecast
= Actual is more than 3% below forecast
Note
This is the first quarterly report against a new forecast. The numbers for ‘Current quarter’ and
‘Year to date’ are therefore identical.
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JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
1.3 Prosecutions
District Court Cases
Current quarter
Number
District Court summary cases
District Court committal cases
Year to date
Number
District Court summary cases
District Court committal cases
Crown Law cases
Current quarter
Number
Crown Law case inflows
Crown Law active caseload
Year to date
Number
Crown Law case inflows
Crown Law active caseload
1.4 Pre-sentence reports
Current quarter
Number of reports
Written reports
Oral reports
Total pre-sentence reports
Year to date
Number of reports
Written reports
Oral reports
Total pre-sentence reports
Expectation
46,058
2,007
Expectation
46,058
2,007
Expectation
1,670
3,516
Expectation
1,670
3,516
Expectation
7,893
7,042
14,934
Expectation
7,893
7,042
14,934
Actual
43,568
2,266
Actual
43,568
2,266
Actual
1,763
3,432
Actual
1,763
3,432
Actual
7,356
7,193
14,549
Actual
7,356
7,193
14,549
Difference
-5.4%
12.9%
Difference
-5.4%
12.9%
Difference
5.6%
-2.4%
Difference
5.6%
-2.4%
Difference
-6.8%
2.2%
-2.6%
Difference
-6.8%
2.2%
-2.6%
Page 6
1.5 Monetary penalties
Current quarter
Value of
Fines imposed
Fine payments received
Number of
Fines remitted to Community Work sentences
Year to date
Value of
Fines imposed
Fine payments received
Number of
Fines remitted to Community Work sentences
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Expectation
$13.6m
$11.7m
Actual
$13.6m
$11.6m
1,970 1,787
Expectation
$13.6m
$11.7m
Actual
$13.6m
$11.6m
1,970 1,787
Difference
-0.2%
-1.0%
-9.3%
Difference
-0.2%
-1.0%
-9.3%
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JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
1.6 Community Probation Service
Numbers of starts on community sentences
Current quarter
Number of ‘starts’ on
Home Detention
Community Detention
Intensive Supervision
Supervision
Community Work
Total starts on community sentences
Year to date
Number of ‘starts’ on
Home Detention
Community Detention
Intensive Supervision
Supervision
Community Work
Total starts on community sentences
Community sentence musters
At end of current quarter
Muster numbers
Home Detention
Community Detention
Intensive Supervision
Supervision
Community Work
Total muster on community sentences
Expectation
868
1,447
669
2,989
11,099
17,072
Expectation
868
1,447
669
2,989
11,099
17,072
Expectation
1,514
1,785
2,519
8,154
22,048
36,020
Actual
837
1,454
630
2,885
9,998
15,804
Actual
837
1,454
630
2,885
9,998
15,804
Actual
1,470
1,782
2,537
7,969
21,679
35,437
Difference
-3.6%
0.5%
-5.8%
-3.5%
-9.9%
-7.4%
Difference
-3.6%
0.5%
-5.8%
-3.5%
-9.9%
-7.4%
Difference
-2.9%
-0.2%
0.7%
-2.3%
-1.7%
-1.6%
Page 8
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Numbers of starts on post-sentence management
Current quarter
Number of ‘starts’ on
Parole
Release on Conditions
Post-Detention Conditions
Total starts on orders
Expectation
548
1,202
663
2,413
Year to date
Number of ‘starts’ on
Parole
Release on Conditions
Post-Detention Conditions
Total starts on orders
Expectation
548
1,202
663
2,413
Musters on post-sentence management
At end of current quarter
Muster numbers
Parole
Release on Conditions
Post-Detention Conditions
Extended Supervision
Life Parole
Total muster on orders
Expectation
2,051
3,609
1,296
173
247
7,376
Actual
514
1,049
560
2,123
Actual
514
1,049
560
2,123
Actual
2,045
3,497
1,256
187
257
7,242
Difference
-6.3%
-12.7%
-15.5%
-12.0%
Difference
-6.3%
-12.7%
-15.5%
-12.0%
Difference
-0.3%
-3.1%
-3.1%
8.1%
4.0%
-1.8%
Page 9
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Provision of Information
Current quarter
Number of
Court Servicing Hours
Pre-release Enquiries
Home Leave Reports
Parole Progress Reports
Year to date
Number of ‘starts’ on
Court Servicing Hours
Pre-release Enquiries
Home Leave Reports
Parole Progress Reports
1.7 Prison population
At end of current quarter
Number of
Remand prisoners
Sentenced prisoners
Total population
1.8 Legal Aid
Current quarter
Expenditure
Excluding debt recovery
Year to date
Expenditure
Excluding debt recovery
Expectation
28,186
1,717
58
124
Expectation
28,186
1,717
58
124
Expectation
1,836
6,929
8,765
Actual
26,106
1,567
55
85
Actual
26,106
1,567
55
85
Actual
1,825
6,770
8,595
Expectation
$41.5m
Actual
$38.2m
Expectation
$41.5m
Actual
$38.2m
Difference
-7.4%
-8.8%
-4.9%
-31.2%
Difference
-7.4%
-8.8%
-4.9%
-31.2%
Difference
-0.6%
-2.3%
-1.9%
Difference
-8.0%
Difference
-8.0%
Page 10
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
2. Historical and international context
The following graph looks at the forecast in the context of a three decade trend in actual prisoner numbers. Key legislative items are highlighted. The Criminal Justice Act of 1985 was followed by Criminal Justice Amendment Acts in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1998, 1999 and 2001.
Prison population 1981 - 2021
Sentencing and Parole
Acts 2002
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Actual
Monthly data
Forecast
Page 11
150
100
50
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
The following graph compares the incarceration rates per 100,000 people for a selection of
Commonwealth and European countries. A further comparison country – the USA – currently has a rate of 743 people incarcerated per 100,000 people (2009 figures). Showing this value on the above graph would change the scale and hide the detail between the other comparison countries.
1
Comparative incarceration rates per 100,000 people
250
200
Australia
Scotland projected
NZ
England/Wales
Canada
NZ projected
Annual data
England/Wales projected
Sweden
Scotland
Netherlands
1 Projections of the incarceration rate from 2010 onwards are shown for UK countries: these projections are based on average values for projections of the relevant prison and total populations.
Page 12
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
3. Summary graphs
Total prisoner numbers
Total prison population
9,500
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
Total Actual
Monthly data
Total Forecast
Remand prisoner numbers
Remand prisoner numbers
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Remand Actual
Monthly data
Remand Forecast
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JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Sentenced prisoner numbers
Sentenced prisoner numbers
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Sentenced Actual
Monthly data
Sentenced Forecast
Legal aid expenditure
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
Expenditure without debt recovery
Quarterly data
Expenditure without debt recovery forecast
Page 14
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4. Forecast drivers
Assumptions
Driver
1: Numbers entering the court system
(number of charging events)
2: Prosecutions
3: Proportion of people remanded in custody
4: Average time spent on custodial remand
5: Proportion of people convicted
6: Proportion of those convicted given custodial and community sentences
7: Length of sentence imposed
8: Proportion of sentence served
Assumption (base case) Comparison with
2010 Forecast
The number of charging events will fall
5.8% in 2011/12, 0.5% in each of 2012/13,
2013/14 and 2014/15, and 1% per annum thereafter.
The number of summary prosecutions will fall in accordance with base case for first driver.
The number of indictable prosecutions lags other measures: will stay at current level to
2012/13, then fall in accordance with lagged base case.
Lower than 2010 assumption
Lower than 2010 assumption
Proportion remanded in custody will remain level at 7.2% throughout forecast period
Higher than 2010 assumption
The average time spent on custodial remand will remain constant at current level
Slightly lower than
2010 assumption
Higher than 2010 assumption
The proportion of people convicted will rise to 75% in 2012-13 and stay at that level throughout the remainder of the forecast period
Outcomes of deferment or conviction and discharge: constant at 14.8% of total; monetary sentences: declining to 37.5%;
CPS sentences rising to 39.5%; prison sentences constant at 8.2%
The length of sentence imposed will remain constant.
Proportion served (including remand) constant at about 72%
CPS and prison sentences higher proportions, monetary lower
Same
Higher than 2010 assumption
Page 15
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.1 Numbers in the court system
Analysis
The number of people in the courts system (as measured by the number of court disposals) is above expectations by 5.1%. Although this is higher than expected, it remains well below the peaks of 2009 and 2010.
Court disposals
Monthly data
Court disposals Forecast
Data notes
Numbers in the court system measures the number of people passing through the court system by the number of ‘charging events’, defined as one person being dealt with for one or more offences on a single day. This is a disposal measure, chosen because of the need to relate court workload to numbers of people entering the courts to the numbers moving on to various sentences. Cases split and merge during their progress through the courts system, so the number of disposals is not the same as the number of prosecutions. However, the two behave very similarly, so the quantity in the above graph is also a measure of the numbers entering.
Changes in numbers charged could reflect changes in any or all of offending patterns, activities of enforcement agencies, and charging practices. Volatility in numbers charged reflects the range of factors influencing it.
Page 16
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.2 Proportion remanded in custody
Analysis
The proportion remanded in custody is close to the expected value.
Proportion remanded in custody
Monthly data
Remand rate Forecast
Data notes
Proportion remanded in custody measures the number of new remand prisoners as a proportion of court disposals in a given month. A new remand prisoner is one received at a prison establishment (i.e. remand prisoners in police cells are excluded). The decision to remand in custody instead of releasing on bail depends on the nature of offences and the characteristics of individual defendants. Decisions on whether to release are affected by existing case law as well as legislation. External events, such as high-profile crimes committed while on bail, may also influence decisions on whether to grant or refuse bail.
Page 17
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
70
65
60
55
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.3 Time on custodial remand
Analysis
The time spent on remand is currently above forecast by 4 days.
Time on remand
Monthly data
Average time on remand Forecast
Data notes
Time on custodial remand is shown as the average length of time for all people who complete their remand period in a given month. Other measures of time spent on remand are also monitored.
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JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.4 Proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction
Analysis
The proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction is very close to its forecast value.
Proportion Convicted
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
Proportion convicted Forecast
Data notes
The proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction is considered a minor driver, because it has been relatively stable over time. This driver has a seasonal element of a peak in
January. This seems to be a reflection of the increased number of drink-drive offences that are cleared up at that time of year. These offences have a higher rate of conviction because the use of breathalysers at roadside stops means the cases are identified and effectively resolved at the same moment.
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JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.5 Proportion of those convicted given different sentences
Overview
The driver behind the numbers of different types of sentence imposed is the most complex.
In effect, it is multiple drivers, one for each of the four main types of sentence (Prison,
Community, Monetary and Other). All four drivers must be combined to give a result that fits with the number of people being convicted, which has of course been fixed by the drivers earlier in the system. We work with proportions, although ultimately we will revert to actual numbers of people in order to calculate muster numbers and numbers of starts.
The process, then, is to make assumptions about trends in usage of three individual sentence types. This constrains the fourth, and a key ‘sanity check’ is to examine that constrained trend to see whether it is credible. If not, then the other three trends must be revisited, new assumptions made, and the process repeated.
Sentence distribution
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Imprisonment
Monthly data
CPS Monetary Other
This graph shows the actual proportions of the four types of sentence over time, along with the projection for the forecast. It is clear that the introduction of new types of community sentence in 2007 had a clear impact on CPS sentences, increasing the proportion of these at the expense of both fines (particularly) and prison sentences. Another key pattern (and one the forecast assumptions maintain) is that the total proportion of monetary and community sentences is quite stable, between about 75% and 80%.
The next four graphs look at each sentence type in turn. We attempt to count individuals as much as possible, so it is the most serious sentence someone receives on a given day that determines the category they fall into in this section. For example, someone receiving, on the same day, sentences of community work, supervision and a fine would appear here once, under ‘CPS sentence’.
Page 20
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Analysis
After a spike in August, the proportion of offenders receiving sentences classified as Other finished the quarter close to expectations.
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of an other sentence
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
%age other Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a monetary sentence as their most severe sanction is in line with expectations.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of a monetary sentence
Monthly data
%age fined Forecast
Page 21
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
The proportion of offenders receiving a CPS sentence as their most severe sanction is in line with expectations.
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
45%
40%
35%
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of a CPS sentence
Monthly data
%age CPS Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a custodial sentence is in line with expectations.
Proportion sentenced to a maximum sentence of a prison sentence
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
%age jailed Forecast
Page 22
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Data notes
Proportion of those convicted measures those offenders who are given different types of sentence in the categories: custodial, CPS, monetary and other (in decreasing order of seriousness). ‘Other’ sentences are principally ‘conviction and discharge’ – it is possible that some of these offenders may be required to pay reparation, but that does not count as a monetary penalty for these graphs. Offenders may be given more than one type of sentence if they face more than one charge – in these graphs, only the most serious charge counts.
Offenders may also be given more than one sentence in a given category at a single sentencing event.
Page 23
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.6 Length of sentence imposed
Analysis
In general, imposed sentences are in line with expectations.
Category
Less than or equal to three months
Greater than three months to six months
Greater than six months to one year
Greater than one year to two years
Greater than two years to three years
Greater than three years to five years
Greater than five years
Expectation
54
145
274
542
911
1,425
2,939
Actual
53
146
275
549
920
1,414
2,937
Difference
-1.7%
1.1%
0.4%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.8%
-0.1%
Year to date
Sentence lengths are expressed as an average number of days within a range of categories.
Imposed sentence length: actual vs forecast
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
Sentence length category
Data notes
Length of sentence imposed has been broken down into a number of categories looking at sentences of different length. An average value for each category is forecast, and the actual value over the year to date for that category is compared to it. The percentage difference from the forecast value for each category is shown in the bar chart. It is not possible to show the change in these quantities with time. The summary table at the start of the report will contain the value for the latest quarter, while the charts here will show the values for the year to date.
Page 24
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
4.7 Proportion of sentence served
Analysis
The total proportion of sentence served, including time spent on remand, had been increasing for several years but since 2008 it has reached a plateau. It is currently close to the forecast level.
Proportion of sentence served excluding time on remand
Monthly data
Proportion served Forecast
Data notes
Proportion of sentence served measures the average proportion of the sentence imposed that is served including remand for sentences longer than two years (sentences of two years or less are subject to automatic release at the 50% point). The driver used to develop the forecast tracks the average proportion served (excluding remand) for different sentence lengths separately. In this update the driver is represented as an aggregate (including remand) over all sentence lengths greater than two years.
Page 25
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
5. Prosecutions
5.1 District Court summary cases
Analysis
District Court summary cases are 5% below the forecast level.
Number of District Court summary cases
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Monthly data
DC Summary DC Summary forecast
Data notes
District Court summary and committal cases are a measure of the seriousness of the workload passing through the court. Summary cases are high-volume and comparatively less serious.
Committal cases are generally more serious, and will be heard by a jury. This distinction also identifies cases that are more likely to involve Crown Law. The classification of a case may change as it proceeds through the court; it may be laid summarily, but the defendant may elect committal for jury trial. The classification used here is based on the way the case is finally heard, not how it is originally laid.
Page 26
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
5.2 District Court committal cases
Analysis
District Court committal cases are 13% above the forecast level. This is one of the few quantities where the current value is above the forecast rather than below. As the graph shows, this is not a return to previously seen levels, but at this stage appears more like the number of cases settling at a higher-than-anticipated level.
Number of District Court committal cases
Monthly data
DC Committal DC Committal forecast
Data notes
Page 27
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
5.3 Crown Law case inflow
Analysis
Crown Law case inflow is above the forecast level. This is likely to be related to the higher than expected number of committal cases in the District Court.
Crown Law case inflow
Monthly data
Crown Law case inflow Crown Law case inflow forecast
Data notes
Crown Law inflow and caseload measure the number of more serious cases that are handled by
Crown Law solicitors. These include, for example, all indictable-only cases and appeals. The different types of case handled by Crown Law take different lengths of time, and an inflow measure alone does not give a full indication of the workload faced. The active caseload measure is obtained by combining projections of both inflow and time taken for the different types of case.
Page 28
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
5.4 Crown Law active caseload
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Analysis
Crown Law active caseload is very close to the forecast level. As the increase in case inflow works its way through the system, the number of active cases may become higher than forecast.
Crown Law active caseload
Monthly data
Crown Law active caseload
Crown Law active caseload forecast
Data notes
Page 29
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
6. Pre-sentence reports
6.1 Written Reports
Analysis
Written reports are below forecast, which reflects the overall fall in numbers in the system. The total number of reports – oral and written – is below expectations.
Number of written pre-sentence reports
Monthly data
Written report Written report forecast
Data notes
Number of written pre-sentence reports is a count of the number of such reports completed in the given month. At present, this is split between short and full reports, but these are expected to be combined into a single written report format in early 2012.
Number of oral pre-sentence reports is a count of the number of such reports completed in the given month. An oral report occurs when a judge requests information to be provided immediately.
Page 30
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
6.2 Oral reports
Analysis
Oral reports are above forecast. The total number of reports – oral and written – is below expectations.
Number of oral pre-sentence reports
Oral report
Monthly data
Oral report forecast
Data notes
Page 31
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
7. Monetary penalties
The forecast quantities are monetary penalties imposed and the amount of money collected from those penalties.
The forecast currently concentrates on the criminal courts. The monetary penalties included are those fines associated with police-originated prosecutions in the criminal courts.
7.1 Amount imposed
Analysis
The amount of fines imposed is very close to the forecast level.
Imposed monetary penalties
Monthly data
Impositions Impositions Forecast
Data notes
Monetary penalties: amount imposed and amount received measure the total dollar value of monetary penalties imposed and collected during the quarter. The totals are made up of: fines, court costs, enforcement costs, confiscation costs, offender levy and payments made to a third party. The penalties involved are those associated with police-originated cases in the criminal court, as this is the part of Collections business involved in the remainder of the forecast.
Monetary penalties are frequently paid off by instalments so the receipts in a given month will not precisely relate to the amounts imposed in that month.
Page 32
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
7.2 Amount received
Analysis
The amount of fine receipts is slightly below the forecast level.
Receipts of monetary penalties
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Receipts
Monthly data
Receipts Forecast
Data notes
Page 33
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
7.3 Remittals to Community Work sentences
Analysis
The number of monetary penalties remitted to Community Work sentences is below forecast.
Remittals to Community Work sentences
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Remittals Remittals Forecast
Data notes
Remittals to Community Work sentences measures an additional source of workload for the
Department of Corrections that does not appear via standard sentencing data.
People who do not pay fines may have them remitted to other sentences. We are interested here in the sentence of Community Work. Offenders whose fines are remitted to more serious sentence types will be receiving a separate sentence of that type for subsequent offending and will thus be counted in the forecast under that sentence. (The sentence for fine default will be an additional amount to be served consecutively.)
Fine defaulters remitted to Community Work sentences, however, generally have not re-offended
and are thus not picked up in the court disposals counted in section 4.1. Numbers of these
remittals are thus also forecast, as they produce a substantial number of people with sentences to be managed by the Department of Corrections.
Page 34
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
8. Community Probation Service (CPS)
Community Probation Service (CPS) quantities are split into three categories:
CPS Sentences
Post-sentence management
Provision of Information
8.1 CPS sentences
Projections are made for ‘starts’ and musters in the following Community Probation Service supervised sentences:
Home Detention
Community Detention
Intensive Supervision
Supervision
Community Work
The data for a number of these outcomes are problematic for a variety of reasons, including high volatility, small sample size, and limited historical data. These reasons can make projection difficult.
The discussion in section 4.5 looked at the proportion of individual convicted offenders receiving
CPS sentences. This analysis is essential in maintaining an overview of the numbers of people passing through the system. Once the actual operation of sentences is being forecast, the number of starts on each sentence becomes more important. That is because individual offenders are frequently given more than one CPS sentence on a single occasion. This may be because they are facing more than one charge and different sentences are given for each convicted charge. But single charges can also attract multiple sentences, most commonly the pairing of Community Work and Supervision. Each start of a sentence represents a unit of work for the CPS, which the forecast needs to reflect.
Thus the forecast projects the number of ‘starts’ on CPS sentences. From 2011, it also projects a ‘muster’ for each sentence (and for the post-sentence management orders).
Page 35
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Home Detention Analysis
Both the number of starts and the muster on Home Detention are below their forecast values.
Home Detention starts
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Home Detention
Monthly data
Home Detention Forecast
Home Detention muster
Home Detention
Monthly data
Home Detention Forecast
Page 36
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Community Detention Analysis
Both the number of starts and the muster on Community Detention are very close to their forecast values.
Community Detention starts
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Community Detention Forecast
Community Detention muster
Community Detention
Monthly data
Community Detention Forecast
Page 37
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Intensive Supervision Analysis
The number of starts on Intensive Supervision is below the forecast value. The muster number is very close to the forecast value.
Intensive Supervision starts
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Intensive Supervision
Monthly data
Intensive Supervision Forecast
Intensive Supervision muster
Intensive Supervision
Monthly data
Intensive Supervision Forecast
Page 38
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Supervision Analysis
Both the number of starts and the muster on Supervision are below their forecast values.
Supervision starts
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Supervision starts
Monthly data
Supervision Forecast
Supervision muster
Supervision
Monthly data
Supervision Forecast
Page 39
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Community Work Analysis
Both the number of starts and the muster on Community Work sentences are below their forecast values. The number of starts is nearly 10% below expectations and, as Community
Work is by some way the largest single component of community sentences, then the overall number of starts on non-custodial sentences is also down. The impact on the total muster is smaller.
Community Work starts
Community Work
Monthly data
Community Work Forecast
Community Work muster
Community Work
Monthly data
Community Work Forecast
Page 40
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Data notes
Starts and muster values each comprise a count of new sentences of the relevant type commenced in the given month, and a count of the number of offenders actively serving such a sentence at the end of the month respectively. Home Detention, Community Detention and
Intensive Supervision sentences were introduced in October 2007, which means there are limited historical data, and that the future projections and seasonality components are not as reliable as those for Community Work and Supervision.
Page 41
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
8.2 Post-sentence management
Projections are made for ‘starts’ and musters in the following Community Probation Service supervised post-sentence orders:
Parole
Release on Conditions
Post-detention Conditions
Life Parole
Extended Supervision
Parole Analysis
The number of starts on Parole is below its forecast value, while the muster is very close to its forecast value.
Parole starts
Monthly data
Parole Parole Forecast
Page 42
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Parole muster
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Parole Parole Forecast
Release on conditions Analysis
The number of new Release on Conditions orders is some way below the forecast value, while the muster on the order is below its forecast value to a lesser degree.
Release on Conditions starts
300
200
100
0
600
500
400
Release on Conditions
Monthly data
Release on Conditions Forecast
Page 43
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Release on Conditions muster
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Release on Conditions Release on Conditions Forecast
Post-detention Conditions Analysis
The number of new Post-detention Conditions orders is below the forecast value. The muster is below its forecast value to a lesser degree.
Post-detention Conditions starts
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Post Detention Conditions
Monthly data
Post Detention Conditions Forecast
Page 44
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Post-detention Conditions muster
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Post Detention Conditions Post Detention Conditions Forecast
Life Parole and Extended Supervision Analysis
Life Parole releases are ahead of expectations, and Extended Supervision releases are below their projected value. Both musters are higher than expectations. The upward step in the
Extended Supervision muster is as a result of a data review that revealed a small amount of under-recording. The number is likely to remain at the new level. The scale of the discrepancy is strongly linked to the small numbers involved – the difference in the Life Parole starts comes down to the difference between an average of three a month and an average of four a month.
Order
Life Parole
Extended Supervision
Expected annual numbers
37
27
12 months to date
49
24
Page 45
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Life parole and Extended Supervision musters
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Life Parole Life Parole Forecast Extended Supervision Extended Supervision Forecast
Data notes
Starts and muster values each comprise a count of new orders of the relevant type commenced in the given month, and a count of the number of offenders actively serving such an order at the end of the month respectively.
Released on Conditions: The vast majority of cases are for sentences of less than two years, with conditions being set by the judge. These are the cases counted here. A small number of cases subject to a process called ‘release on conditions’ are for longer sentences. These are cases where the Parole Board has no discretion to release an offender. The offender must be released by law, and the Board’s only role is to set the conditions of the offender’s release.
These cases are treated as parole cases by CPS, and are counted in Parole at the start of this section.
Life Parole and Extended Supervision: these two outcomes occur only a few times a month, in quantities too small to be used in time series analysis. Aggregating monthly values to a yearly total provides a larger value, but drastically shortens the time series. The projection therefore consists of the average value of recent years. Consequently starts on these orders are likely to exhibit a large amount of fluctuation. Because many of these released prisoners spend a considerable time on these orders, the muster numbers are more easily forecast, although the available data for the life parole muster is the shortest, and therefore most limiting, used in the forecast. Offenders were first put on Extended Supervision orders in 2007, with orders being for up to ten years. Very few offenders have completed these orders to date.
Page 46
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
8.3 Provision of Information
Projections are made for numbers or hours for the following Community Probation Service information provision processes:
Court Servicing Hours
Pre-release Enquiries
Home Leave Reports
Parole Condition Progress Reports
Court Servicing Hours Analysis
Court Servicing Hours are below their forecast value.
Court Servicing Hours
Monthly data
Court Servicing Hours Court Servicing Hours Forecast
Data notes
Court Servicing Hours are a measure of the time probation officers spend at court. Important court functions include appearing as a prosecutor for CPS breaches and applications, providing information to the judges/court users, and attendance at any court where Home Detention sentencing is taking place to receive instructions in regard to the immediate activation of the sentence.
Page 47
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Pre-release Enquiries Analysis
Pre-release Enquiries are below their forecast level.
Pre-release Enquiries
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Pre-release enquiries Pre-release enquiries Forecast
Data notes
Pre-release Enquiries are reports to prepare for an offender’s appearance before the Parole
Board.
Page 48
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Home Leave Reports Analysis
Home Leave Reports are below their expected value, although the quarterly numbers are small and, as a result, volatile. The comparatively high numbers in April and May 2011 are not expected to recur.
Home Leave Reports
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Monthly data
Home Leave reports Home Leave reports Forecast
Data notes
Home Leave Reports assess a prisoner’s suitability for a three-day period of home release prior to the conclusion of their prison sentence.
Page 49
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Parole Condition Progress Reports Analysis
Parole Condition Progress Reports are more than 30% below their expected value for the quarter. The principal cause of the shortfall is the lowest monthly number of reports on record in
July 2011, which is against the seasonal pattern. The remaining months of the quarter were closer to their expected values.
Parole Condition Progress Reports
Monthly data
Parole Progress Reports Parole Progress Reports Forecast
Data notes
Parole Condition Progress Reports help the Parole Board to assess how well a paroled offender is meeting any conditions the Board has imposed.
Page 50
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
9. Prison Population
Analysis
The remand population is very close to its forecast value, and the sentenced population is a little below. The total population is slightly below its forecast value.
Remand Population
Remand prisoner numbers
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Remand Actual
Monthly data
Remand Forecast
Page 51
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
Sentenced Population
Sentenced prisoner numbers
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Sentenced Actual
Monthly data
Sentenced Forecast
Total Population
Total prison population
9,500
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
Monthly data
Total Actual Total Forecast
Data notes
Prison numbers are counts of the numbers incarcerated. The monthly figure reported uses the maximum total population figure in the last week of the relevant month, and the sentenced and remand components are based on that figure.
Page 52
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
10. Legal Aid
The legal aid forecast is built up from projecting trends in different categories. In the criminal jurisdiction, these categories are types of offence. Family jurisdiction categories include matters such as care of children or mental health, while the categories in the civil jurisdiction include ACC and refugee cases. It is important to work at this level of detail because costs, numbers and trends vary greatly between categories (for example, a homicide case costs more, on average, than a property offence, although the latter is more common).
When it comes to monitoring actual values against the forecast, it is impractical to report on every single category (there are eighteen different categories across the criminal, family and civil jurisdictions – monitoring grants, average costs and accrued expenditure for each would mean
54 separate graphs). Even monitoring at jurisdiction level would result in more than a dozen graphs.
This report therefore monitors overall expenditure, while using information at jurisdiction and matter category level to inform commentary on trends. Accrued expenditure for Waitangi
Tribunal cases, the duty solicitor scheme, and the police detention legal aid (PDLA) scheme also inform the commentary.
It is not always possible, at the time of awarding a legal aid grant, to be sure of the final cost of the case, and consequently overpayments sometimes occur. Debt recovery figures represent the repayment of excess grant amounts. Debt recovery is forecast and monitored for the criminal, family and civil jurisdictions. Combining expenditure and debt recovery allows us to monitor net legal aid expenditure.
Legal aid quantities are new to the forecast in 2011, and we expect to refine forecasting and monitoring them as we learn more about their behaviour. In addition, there are significant changes proposed for legal aid processes in the next few years.
Page 53
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
50
45
40
35
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
10.1 Legal aid expenditure
Analysis
Legal aid expenditure (excluding the contribution from debt recovery) is 8% below its forecast value. The family jurisdiction shows the largest shortfall (11%), with the criminal jurisdiction being 6% below expectations. Other grants (covering the civil jurisdiction, Waitangi Tribunal legal aid and the duty solicitor and police detention legal aid (PDLA) schemes) are also 6% below forecast.
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
Quarterly data
Expenditure without debt recovery Expenditure without debt recovery forecast
Data notes
Total net expenditure is the total accrued expenditure in each jurisdiction (criminal, family and civil) plus expenditure on Waitangi Tribunal cases, the duty solicitor scheme, and the police detention legal aid (PDLA) scheme. Information on debt recovery for the quarter ending 30
September 2011 was not available.
Page 54
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021
Quarter 1 Forecast Update
11. Explanatory notes
Assumptions agreed between sector agencies
The assumptions for drivers underpinning the forecast were agreed by senior officials from the
New Zealand Police, Crown Law, the Ministry of Justice and the Department of Corrections in
July 2011 2 .
Dates
The prison population numbers are based on the maximum number recorded in the week containing the last day of the last month of the quarter.
Other numbers are based on the data from Police, Ministry of Justice or Corrections for the calendar quarter.
Provisional data
We aim to circulate this update as soon as possible after the end of the quarter, but we have to wait for regular data feeds and other processes to be completed.
These processes mean that this update should be published within eight weeks after the end of the month in its title. For example, the December update should appear before the end of
February. Some data take longer still to reach a complete sample, so the latest data points should always be regarded as provisional.
Graph conventions
The 2011-2021 forecast incorporates several new data quantities. The data sources for these quantities cover a wide range of periods. It is thus not practical to standardise all graphs in the update to cover the same period. Graphs within a single section will cover the same period.
Comparisons to driver expectations
For the drivers, the difference indicators (
,
and
) are calculated from the expected values.
On occasion, where there is a point estimate (rather than a quarterly average or total) of a volatile quantity, this may lead to an exaggerated difference, and the graph showing the overall trend should always be consulted as well.
Note that where the driver is expressed as a rate, the divergence is expressed as a proportion of that rate, not in terms of the absolute number of percentage points. For example, if the expected rate is 50% and the actual is 52%, then the difference will be 4%, the difference between 52 and
50.
2 Subject to subsequent minor amendments, leading to the forecast being approved in September 2011.
Page 55
