Decision Rationale Example We (FS, BLM, & DNRC on behalf of Gallatin & Madison Counties) have decided to manage this incident with a Long Type 2 IMT organization, which differs from the ONA because, although multiple jurisdictions & several resource objectives, fire weather is predicted to moderate, decreasing the complexity of fire containment. A T2 Long IMT should be able to manage this fire. In addition to the Planning Area Values, listed in the Assessment Content, other Values at Risk are: Wilderness values in the Bear Trap Management Unit Madison River aquatic & economic values (fishing & rafting) Of these Values, the highest priorities for protection are: Private property & public safety Infrastructure (electric transmission lines & sub-stations, comm. towers, oil/gas pipeline) BLM campgrounds, dispersed recreation sites, & wilderness values These priorities are consistent with the Incident Objectives and Requirements to: Protect firefighter & public safety Protect infrastructure Prevent the spread of noxious weeds (terrestrial & aquatic) The Incident Objectives and Requirements tier from the Strategic Objectives(S.O.s) & Management Requirements (M.R.s) for the Gallatin, East Madison, & Madison Valley FMUs included within the Planning Area. Accordingly, the defined Course of Action to use aggressive suppression strategies, commensurate with firefighter & public safety, will accomplish these objectives & requirements. The estimated final fire size used was 20,000 acres. Because a T2 IMT is being assigned, which is somewhat atypical for a grass/brush fire, the 90% value cost of $88/acre was used, for a total cost estimate of $1,760,000. Risk Assessment 1. What are the critical values at risk? Private property, infrastructure, BLM campgrounds 2. What is the chance the critical values will be impacted and, if so, what are the consequences? High; some private structures & BLM campgrounds have already burned; has burned under electric transmission line with some wooden poles impacted with the potential for the line to fail (power company opted not to shut down); in the event of failure, numerous customers would be without power 3. What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan objectives? 1 Decision Rationale Example 4. None What are the possible low probability/high consequence events? 5. Electric transmission line failure Oil/gas pipeline encroachment Communication site encroachment Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision? FS (as protecting agency for BLM), BLM, DNRC on behalf of Gallatin & Madison Counties, County Commissioners, Sheriff's Departments Risk Decision 1. What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered? Aggressive suppression strategies (direct & indirect) using crews, engines, heavy equipment, & aviation resources, commensurate with firefighter & public safety and the values at risk 2. What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered? Steep, rocky terrain in the river canyon; rattlesnakes; hot, dry, windy conditions; smoke exposure & causing hazardous road conditions 3. What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being considered? Moderate to high, depending on the weather (wind) conditions 4. What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and exposure to responders? Aggressive suppression minimizes firefighter & public exposure to smoke, driving, & operational hazards 5. What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed alternative and how will they be monitored? M.A.P. for winds exceeding 30 mph M.A.P. for movement of the fire to the south in the wilderness toward the Madison Powerhouse Approaching Estimated Cost or Planning Area boundary All thresholds will be monitored and documented by Daily Assessment of this Decision. 2