Supporting Information
Assessing species vulnerability to climate and land use change: the
case of the Swiss breeding birds
Ramona Maggini1,2,*, Anthony Lehmann2,3, Niklaus Zbinden1, Niklaus E.
Zimmermann4, Janine Bolliger4, Boris Schröder5,6, Ruud Foppen7, Hans Schmid1,
Martin Beniston2 and Lukas Jenni1
1
Swiss Ornithological Institute, CH-6204 Sempach, Switzerland
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Battelle D, CH-1227 Carouge, Switzerland
3
Forel Institute, University of Geneva, CH-1290 Versoix, Switzerland
4
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
5
Environmental Systems Analysis, Technical University of Braunschweig, D-38106 Braunschweig, Germany
6
Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), D-14195 Berlin, Germany
7
European Bird Census Council, NL-6503 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
* Correspondence:
Ramona Maggini, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED),
School of Biological Sciences, Goddard Building 8, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD
4072, Australia. Email: r.maggini@uq.edu.au
2
Appendix S1
Species distribution modelling and projection into the future
The current distribution within Switzerland of common and semi-rare breeding bird
species was modelled using three modelling techniques: generalized additive models (GAMs;
Hastie & Tibshirani, 1990), boosted regression trees (BRTs; Elith et al., 2008) and
multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS; Elith & Leathwick, 2007). We used
presence-absence data within 1km2 of different in-house databases: records from the second
Swiss Breeding Bird Atlas 1993-1996 (Schmid et al., 1998), the monitoring program for
common breeding birds (MHB; data recorded between 1999-2008; Schmid et al., 2004) and
observations from the monitoring program for rare breeding and visiting birds (SI; data
recorded over the period 1993-2008; Zbinden & Schmid, 1995). The database of the Swiss
Breeding Bird Atlas 1993-1996 provides presence-absence data for all breeding birds within
2,712 sampling units of 1km2 across the Swiss territory (approximately 41,301 km2). These
are complemented with 267 sampling units of 1km2 from the monitoring program for
common breeding birds. The survey is conducted on an annual basis and each square is
surveyed three times – twice above the treeline – per breeding season by skilled volunteers
who map all birds observed or heard along a square-specific route. Finally, the Information
Service is the database of the monitoring for rare breeding and visiting birds and gather
selected chance observations from volunteer birdwatchers. These observations data are also
stored at a 1 km resolution. The distribution of rare, nocturnal or particularly cryptic species
that do not have reliable absence data was modelled using Maxent, a presence-only technique
based on maximum entropy (Phillips et al., 2006).
-1-
Models goodness of fit was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver
operating characteristic plot (ROC, Fielding & Bell, 1997). Model stability was evaluated by
performing a 10-fold cross-validation. Sample sizes, model goodness of fit (AUC) and AUC
values for cross-validation (cvAUC) for each species are presented in Table S1. Only species
for which model fit was judged reasonably good and for which the maps of potential
distribution passed the test of a panel of experts were retained for the calculation of the index.
The panel of experts was composed by seven colleagues of the monitoring program of the
Swiss Ornithological Institute who have extensive knowledge of the distribution of the
different species within Switzerland, namely Dr Niklaus Zbinden, Dr Verena Keller, Hans
Schmid, Peter Knaus, Dr Martin Spiess, Dr Bernard Volet and Dr Marc Kéry. Species that
were discarded from the analysis are the Mew Gull (Larus canus), White-spotted Bluethroat
(Luscinia svecica cyanecula), Pallid Swift (Apus pallidus) and Grey Partridge (Perdix perdix).
These are rare species characterized by very localized distributions within Switzerland and
distributional data that do not allow proper modelling. For other 19 species the expert panel
judged that the modelled distribution was overall correct but too optimistic, i.e. showing the
potential rather than the actual distribution. This is inherent to the modelling and estimations
of the area of occupancy can’t be replaced with actual observations since we need to produce
projections for the future. As a consequence, however, the indicators related to the current and
future area of occupancy can be impacted and the final vulnerability index slightly
underestimated. These species have been highlighted in the table with the vulnerability
indices (symbol * in Table S3, Appendix S3, of the Supporting Information).
The distribution of the species was modelled as a function of environmental variables
that are thought to limit their current range, i.e. bioclimatic, topographic and land use related
predictors prepared at a 1 km2 resolution to match the resolution of species data. Collinearity
among predictors was tested in the preliminary phase of the study and only predictors
correlated at less than 0.7 were considered. Bioclimatic predictors finally retained for the
modelling were: annual degree-days calculated with a threshold of 5.56 °C, i.e. the sum of
daily mean temperatures above 5.56 °C over a year; mean moisture index over the breeding
season (April - June); potential direct solar radiation in March. The amount of solar radiation
in March is important for breeding birds in Switzerland because in sunny locations snow will
melt more rapidly thus allowing the breeding season to start earlier and to eventually count on
a second brood. The moisture index is defined as the difference between precipitation and
evapotranspiration and in our case it informs on how wet the breeding season is expected to
be, which is correlated to the survival rate of the chicks and an indicator of the reproductive
success. Land use predictors were calculated as the percentage of six main land use categories
(closed canopy forest; open canopy forest; overgrown areas; non intensively used open land;
intensively used open land; glaciers, rocks, sands and scree) within a square kilometre. These
are the categories used for projecting future land use (Bolliger et al., 2007), supplemented
with the category of glaciers-rocks-sands-scree. The latter was used to fill up the area above
the timberline in the scenario maps and was considered as constant through time. As a
consequence the estimation of the area of occupancy of alpine species in the future is
probably overestimated (i.e. only accounts for climate change impacts and not for the
probable change in habitat) and final vulnerability underestimated. Topographic predictors
describing the landscape were also defined at the 1 km2 resolution: percentage of landform
categories (canyons, U-shaped valleys, plains, open slopes, upper slopes, mountain tops), total
length of lake shore, total river length, marshy and reed bed surfaces within a square
kilometre.
-2-
The distributions of the species were projected for the 21st century according to two
combined scenarios of climate and land use change. Regionalized (according to the
methodology described in Engler et al., 2011) IPCC climatic scenarios A1FI and B2 were
combined with land use scenarios specifically developed for Switzerland, ‘liberalization’
(LIB) and ‘lowered agricultural production (strong)’ (LAP) (Bolliger et al., 2007),
respectively. Under both climatic scenarios, annual degree-days will significantly increase
through time (median values for Switzerland, present: 10,669, B2-2050: 14,977, B2-2100:
18,432; A1-2050: 15,906; A1-2100: 26,009 [day*deg]), while the mean moisture index over
the breeding season will decrease and even become negative under the extreme scenario
indicating that evapotranspiration will exceed precipitation leading to a deficit of water
(median values for Switzerland, present: 426, B2-2050: 279, B2-2100: 137; A1-2050: 182;
A1-2100: -246 [1/10 mm]). Land use scenarios rely on two drivers of land use change: the
societal role of agricultural production and the public support for conservation issues
(Bolliger et al., 2007) and were spatially implemented using the Swiss land use statistics
1979/85 and 1990/1992 (Office fédéral de la statistique, 2003). The ‘liberalization’ scenario
(LIB) builds on the IPPC A1 scenario and assumes that the agricultural markets are no longer
subsidized with product payments or direct payments bound to agri-environmental schemes.
As a consequence, farming in the mountains is largely abandoned. This in turn favours
spontaneous reforestation. The ‘lowered agricultural production’ scenario (LAP) builds on the
IPPC scenario B2 and assumes large-scale adoption of agri-environmental schemes which
foster sustainable land use (details see Bolliger et al., 2007, 2008; Lütolf et al., 2009; Steck et
al., 2007). Projections for the 21st century were performed for two time frames: 2050 and
2100.
The mean probability of occurrence was chosen as consensus method to summarize
the ensemble of predicted probabilities for a given common species, scenario of change and
time frame (Marmion et al., 2009). The mean probability of occurrence was then transformed
into presence-absence according to a threshold allowing at least 95% of the presence records
used for the modelling to be correctly reclassified as presence (Lehmann et al., 2002). The
same type of threshold was used to transform the probabilities obtained with Maxent for rare
species. From these presence-absence maps, the area of occupancy (AO) of the species within
Switzerland was finally derived by counting the number of occupied 1-km2 squares. All the
modelling and subsequent analyses were performed using the statistical package R (v. 2.7.0, R
Development Core Team, 2008).
Table S1 Species sample size (N) and model predictive performance according to the area
under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a cross-validated AUC.
Latin Name
Accipiter gentilis
Accipiter nisus
Acrocephalus
arundinaceus
Acrocephalus palustris
Acrocephalus
scirpaceus
Actitis hypoleucos
Aegithalos caudatus
Aegolius funereus
Alauda arvensis
Alcedo atthis
Alectoris graeca
Anas platyrhynchos
Anas strepera
Anthus pratensis
Northern Goshawk
Eurasian Sparrowhawk
Great Reed Warbler
GAM
AUC cvAUC
0.674 0.661
0.654 0.643
0.962 0.947
MARS
AUC cvAUC
0.668 0.661
0.647 0.641
0.961 0.955
AUC
0.771
0.759
0.992
BRT
cvAUC
0.674
0.654
0.957
Marsh Warbler
Eurasian Reed Warbler
0.923
0.967
0.904
0.953
0.918
0.960
0.908
0.958
0.970
0.989
0.906
0.962
330
317
Common Sandpiper
Long-tailed Bushtit
Boreal Owl
Eurasian Skylark
Common Kingfisher
Rock Partridge
Mallard
Gadwall
Meadow Pipit
0.944
0.820
0.921
0.810
0.944
0.822
0.904
0.812
0.988
0.862
0.921
0.808
0.855
0.950
0.902
0.942
0.971
0.908
0.848
0.935
0.897
0.925
0.954
0.902
0.856
0.961
0.901
0.956
0.951
0.906
0.845
0.948
0.895
0.945
0.916
0.898
0.941
0.988
0.950
0.980
0.998
0.961
0.861
0.955
0.908
0.950
0.932
0.904
123
812
905
1117
881
716
807
17
296
English Name
MAXENT
AUC cvAUC
910
2148
280
0.917
-3-
N
0.897
Latin Name
Anthus spinoletta
Anthus trivialis
Apus apus
Apus melba
Aquila chrysaetos
Ardea cinerea
Asio otus
Athene noctua
Aythya ferina
Aythya fuligula
Bonasa bonasia
Bubo bubo
Buteo buteo
Caprimulgus
europaeus
Carduelis cabaret
Carduelis cannabina
Carduelis carduelis
Carduelis chloris
Carduelis spinus
Carpodacus
erythrinus
Certhia brachydactyla
Certhia familiaris
Charadrius dubius
Ciconia ciconia
Cinclus cinclus
Coccothraustes
coccothraustes
Columba oenas
Columba palumbus
Corvus corax
Corvus corone corone
Corvus frugilegus
Corvus monedula
Coturnix coturnix
Crex crex
Cuculus canorus
Delichon urbicum
Dendrocopos major
Dendrocopos medius
Dendrocopos minor
Dryocopus martius
Emberiza calandra
Emberiza cia
Emberiza cirlus
Emberiza citrinella
Emberiza hortulana
Emberiza schoeniclus
Erithacus rubecula
Falco peregrinus
Falco subbuteo
Falco tinnunculus
Ficedula hypoleuca
Fringilla coelebs
Fulica atra
Gallinago gallinago
Gallinula chloropus
Garrulus glandarius
Glaucidium
passerinum
Hippolais icterina
Hippolais polyglotta
Hirundo rustica
Ixobrychus minutus
Jynx torquilla
Lagopus muta
Lanius collurio
Lanius senator
English Name
Water Pipit
Tree Pipit
Common Swift
Alpine Swift
Golden Eagle
Grey Heron
Long-eared Owl
Little Owl
Common Pochard
Tufted Duck
Hazel Grouse
Eurasian Eagle-Owl
Common Buzzard
European Nightjar
GAM
AUC cvAUC
0.983 0.980
0.914 0.908
0.836 0.824
0.893 0.850
0.871 0.845
0.871 0.850
MARS
AUC cvAUC
0.985 0.983
0.917 0.910
0.838 0.823
0.892 0.849
0.860 0.829
0.870 0.836
AUC
0.994
0.959
0.887
0.974
0.947
0.943
BRT
cvAUC
0.984
0.915
0.829
0.849
0.853
0.868
0.974
0.945
0.880
0.900
0.918
0.862
0.973
0.941
0.894
0.859
0.912
0.873
1.000
0.992
0.946
0.949
0.922
0.880
0.873
0.866
0.880
0.870
0.915
0.876
MAXENT
AUC cvAUC
0.831
0.973
0.805
0.961
0.874
0.785
0.981
0.894
N
839
1212
810
152
336
576
1186
122
16
156
957
269
1825
73
Lesser Redpoll
Common Linnet
European Goldfinch
European Greenfinch
Eurasian Siskin
Common Rosefinch
0.936
0.762
0.864
0.895
0.861
0.920
0.930
0.743
0.858
0.888
0.848
0.868
0.937
0.767
0.870
0.917
0.858
0.914
0.923
0.742
0.858
0.909
0.838
0.877
0.956
0.844
0.897
0.936
0.907
0.973
0.929
0.760
0.862
0.912
0.847
0.887
565
1030
1847
1916
452
155
Short-toed Treecreeper
Eurasian Treecreeper
Little Ringed Plover
White Stork
White-throated Dipper
Hawfinch
0.916
0.840
0.931
0.978
0.829
0.807
0.911
0.835
0.918
0.966
0.815
0.798
0.914
0.844
0.931
0.974
0.825
0.799
0.908
0.835
0.912
0.959
0.809
0.785
0.949
0.871
0.979
0.999
0.870
0.847
0.918
0.837
0.925
0.960
0.819
0.792
1261
1330
306
103
553
586
Stock Dove
Common Wood Pigeon
Northern Raven
Carrion Crow
Rook
Western Jackdaw
Common Quail
Corn Crake
Common Cuckoo
Common House Martin
Great Spotted
Woodpecker
Middle Spotted
Woodpecker
Lesser Spotted
Woodpecker
Black Woodpecker
Corn Bunting
Rock Bunting
Cirl Bunting
Yellowhammer
Ortolan Bunting
Common Reed Bunting
European Robin
Peregrine Falcon
Eurasian Hobby
Common Kestrel
European Pied
Flycatcher
Common Chaffinch
Eurasian Coot
Common Snipe
Common Moorhen
Eurasian Jay
Eurasian Pygmy Owl
0.852
0.910
0.741
0.883
0.964
0.906
0.855
0.892
0.757
0.857
0.869
0.846
0.905
0.723
0.874
0.947
0.893
0.850
0.871
0.744
0.849
0.860
0.840
0.918
0.745
0.914
0.956
0.906
0.853
0.882
0.768
0.854
0.886
0.839
0.911
0.719
0.904
0.939
0.884
0.845
0.845
0.756
0.846
0.879
0.931
0.943
0.826
0.949
0.990
0.950
0.911
0.966
0.858
0.911
0.914
0.863
0.916
0.725
0.911
0.950
0.890
0.858
0.869
0.772
0.856
0.880
940
1792
759
2224
231
320
1119
250
1649
1021
2170
0.913
0.902
0.907
0.893
0.964
0.911
309
0.862
0.855
0.856
0.847
0.898
0.859
1027
0.826
0.946
0.941
0.878
0.901
0.904
0.976
0.890
0.847
0.864
0.698
0.836
0.822
0.935
0.933
0.870
0.895
0.868
0.964
0.883
0.823
0.860
0.681
0.822
0.830
0.942
0.940
0.871
0.899
0.911
0.964
0.952
0.847
0.861
0.698
0.842
0.821
0.938
0.925
0.866
0.891
0.856
0.956
0.945
0.810
0.855
0.671
0.824
0.872
0.975
0.973
0.957
0.948
0.998
0.995
0.970
0.938
0.907
0.752
0.916
0.824
0.944
0.935
0.891
0.899
0.902
0.970
0.950
0.835
0.862
0.687
0.848
960
351
277
606
1390
89
209
2662
725
1461
1092
737
0.967
0.985
0.999
0.948
0.894
0.958
0.979
0.697
0.936
0.886
0.991
0.989
0.956
0.919
0.984
0.982
0.945
0.912
0.994
0.999
1.000
0.986
0.938
0.989
0.984
0.998
0.955
0.918
2915
337
5
799
2223
527
Icterine Warbler
Melodious Warbler
Barn Swallow
Little Bittern
Eurasian Wryneck
Rock Ptarmigan
Red-backed Shrike
Woodchat Shrike
0.890
0.923
0.923
0.967
0.840
0.955
0.834
0.970
0.924
0.873
0.918
0.919
0.952
0.833
0.952
0.824
0.922
-4-
0.890
0.928
0.929
0.963
0.841
0.950
0.834
0.954
0.873
0.917
0.926
0.949
0.831
0.946
0.824
0.905
0.967
0.962
0.946
0.990
0.912
0.969
0.888
0.988
0.898
0.935
0.926
0.955
0.850
0.953
0.823
0.917
0.899
229
336
1511
226
1175
755
959
62
Latin Name
Larus michahellis
Larus ridibundus
Locustella luscinioides
Locustella naevia
Loxia curvirostra
Lullula arborea
Luscinia
megarhynchos
Luscinia svecica
svecica
Mergus merganser
Merops apiaster
Milvus migrans
Milvus milvus
Monticola saxatilis
Monticola solitarius
Montifringilla nivalis
Motacilla alba
Motacilla cinerea
Motacilla flava
Muscicapa striata
Netta rufina
Nucifraga
caryocatactes
Numenius arquata
Oenanthe oenanthe
Oriolus oriolus
Otus scops
Panurus biarmicus
Parus ater
Parus caeruleus
Parus cristatus
Parus major
Parus montanus
Parus palustris
Passer domesticus
Passer montanus
Pernis apivorus
Phoenicurus ochruros
Phoenicurus
phoenicurus
Phylloscopus bonelli
Phylloscopus collybita
Phylloscopus sibilatrix
Phylloscopus trochilus
Pica pica
Picoides tridactylus
Picus canus
Picus viridis
Podiceps cristatus
Podiceps nigricollis
Porzana porzana
Prunella collaris
Prunella modularis
Ptyonoprogne
rupestris
Pyrrhocorax graculus
Pyrrhocorax
pyrrhocorax
Pyrrhula pyrrhula
Rallus aquaticus
Regulus ignicapilla
Regulus regulus
GAM
AUC cvAUC
0.987 0.957
0.988 0.920
MARS
AUC cvAUC
0.980 0.974
0.969 0.933
AUC
0.997
0.996
BRT
cvAUC
0.974
0.952
0.975
0.931
0.967
0.916
0.972
0.926
0.962
0.907
0.995
0.973
0.971
0.922
147
291
0.839
0.888
0.936
0.831
0.873
0.934
0.838
0.897
0.927
0.830
0.879
0.926
0.891
0.971
0.964
0.837
0.899
0.940
896
280
1044
Red-spotted Bluethroat
0.979
0.852
0.979
0.893
0.999
0.919
19
Common Merganser
European Bee-eater
Black Kite
Red Kite
Rufous-tailed Rock
Thrush
Blue Rock-Thrush
White-winged
Snowfinch
White Wagtail
Grey Wagtail
Western Yellow
Wagtail
Spotted Flycatcher
Red-crested Pochard
Spotted Nutcracker
0.952
0.969
0.872
0.857
0.915
0.941
0.919
0.863
0.843
0.908
0.963
0.942
0.871
0.847
0.908
0.956
0.842
0.861
0.837
0.904
0.990
0.996
0.914
0.914
0.945
0.961
0.871
0.866
0.843
0.911
498
21
766
535
620
0.991
0.965
0.959
0.962
0.988
0.966
0.966
0.965
0.998
0.973
0.971
0.963
53
769
0.849
0.817
0.915
0.834
0.808
0.904
0.897
0.816
0.943
0.890
0.803
0.933
0.929
0.853
0.981
0.897
0.806
0.947
2433
1158
113
0.835
0.981
0.920
0.829
0.957
0.917
0.836
0.977
0.922
0.828
0.957
0.915
0.880
0.999
0.946
0.836
0.970
0.917
1584
139
806
Eurasian Curlew
Northern Wheatear
Eurasian Golden Oriole
Eurasian Scops Owl
Bearded Reedling
Coal Tit
Blue Tit
European Crested Tit
Great Tit
Willow Tit
Marsh Tit
House Sparrow
Eurasian Tree Sparrow
European Honey
Buzzard
Black Redstart
Common Redstart
1.000
0.976
0.919
0.590
0.972
0.917
0.999
0.976
0.920
0.635
0.970
0.917
1.000
0.988
0.953
0.997
0.974
0.928
0.991
0.887
0.938
0.865
0.955
0.910
0.883
0.950
0.944
0.742
0.934
0.879
0.934
0.860
0.949
0.904
0.878
0.945
0.938
0.733
0.977
0.928
0.958
0.869
0.976
0.913
0.887
0.962
0.944
0.738
0.955
0.923
0.951
0.861
0.971
0.908
0.876
0.958
0.942
0.728
1.000
0.961
0.971
0.923
0.986
0.945
0.908
0.978
0.971
0.812
0.988
0.932
0.957
0.869
0.974
0.910
0.882
0.958
0.945
0.746
6
562
1230
92
45
2477
1928
1568
2401
1037
1558
1655
1107
1279
0.584
0.772
0.540
0.759
0.805
0.771
0.757
0.750
0.913
0.891
0.803
0.764
2907
829
Western Bonelli's
Warbler
Common Chiffchaff
Wood Warbler
Willow Warbler
Eurasian Magpie
Eurasian Three-toed
Woodpecker
Grey-headed
Woodpecker
European Green
Woodpecker
Great Crested Grebe
Black-necked Grebe
Spotted Crake
Alpine Accentor
Dunnock
Eurasian Crag Martin
0.853
0.839
0.849
0.835
0.904
0.840
631
0.839
0.839
0.841
0.866
0.904
0.824
0.829
0.830
0.856
0.896
0.920
0.831
0.860
0.866
0.913
0.908
0.817
0.834
0.855
0.901
0.959
0.872
0.906
0.898
0.960
0.923
0.829
0.842
0.858
0.906
2613
735
1056
1165
303
0.866
0.860
0.868
0.864
0.944
0.879
637
0.789
0.781
0.788
0.778
0.866
0.789
1426
0.968
0.973
0.959
0.867
0.972
0.960
0.959
0.855
0.996
0.997
0.967
0.925
0.980
0.833
0.860
0.975
0.823
0.855
0.977
0.849
0.850
0.973
0.835
0.847
0.992
0.898
0.922
0.976
0.849
0.863
166
20
33
384
2040
1510
Alpine Chough
Red-billed Chough
0.957
0.937
0.947
0.916
0.954
0.928
0.947
0.895
0.973
0.986
0.950
0.908
311
195
Eurasian Bullfinch
Water Rail
Firecrest
Goldcrest
0.873
0.961
0.860
0.870
0.868
0.951
0.852
0.862
0.876
0.965
0.867
0.878
0.869
0.955
0.861
0.868
0.908
0.982
0.942
0.928
0.872
0.953
0.879
0.880
1506
363
1955
1987
English Name
Yellow-legged Gull
Common black-headed
Gull
Savi's Warbler
Common Grasshopper
Warbler
Red Crossbill
Woodlark
Common Nightingale
MAXENT
AUC cvAUC
80
25
0.981
0.961
-5-
N
0.951
0.904
Latin Name
Riparia riparia
Saxicola rubetra
Saxicola torquatus
Scolopax rusticola
Serinus citrinella
Serinus serinus
Sitta europaea
Sterna hirundo
Streptopelia decaocto
Streptopelia turtur
Strix aluco
Sturnus vulgaris
Sylvia atricapilla
Sylvia borin
Sylvia communis
Sylvia curruca
Sylvia nisoria
Tachybaptus ruficollis
Tetrao tetrix
Tetrao urogallus
Tichodroma muraria
Troglodytes
troglodytes
Turdus merula
Turdus philomelos
Turdus pilaris
Turdus torquatus
Turdus viscivorus
Tyto alba
Upupa epops
Vanellus vanellus
English Name
Sand Martin
Whinchat
Eurasian Stonechat
Eurasian Woodcock
Citril Finch
European Serin
Eurasian Nuthatch
Common Tern
Eurasian Collared Dove
European Turtle Dove
Tawny Owl
Common Starling
Eurasian Blackcap
Garden Warbler
Common Whitethroat
Lesser Whitethroat
Barred Warbler
Little Grebe
Black Grouse
Western Capercaillie
Wallcreeper
Winter Wren
Common Blackbird
Song Thrush
Fieldfare
Ring Ouzel
Mistle Thrush
Barn Owl
Eurasian Hoopoe
Northern Lapwing
GAM
AUC cvAUC
0.935 0.924
0.892 0.884
0.885 0.877
MARS
AUC cvAUC
0.933 0.910
0.893 0.878
0.877 0.870
AUC
0.972
0.940
0.951
BRT
cvAUC
0.921
0.895
0.901
0.935
0.849
0.900
0.977
0.900
0.903
0.929
0.840
0.893
0.969
0.888
0.898
0.934
0.848
0.920
0.978
0.898
0.905
0.928
0.838
0.912
0.946
0.885
0.900
0.965
0.900
0.954
0.996
0.940
0.945
0.934
0.845
0.918
0.963
0.887
0.909
0.955
0.938
0.796
0.850
0.888
0.999
0.931
0.928
0.928
0.883
0.834
0.949
0.928
0.785
0.841
0.879
0.851
0.919
0.925
0.902
0.870
0.830
0.971
0.968
0.797
0.841
0.892
0.991
0.947
0.927
0.927
0.884
0.912
0.967
0.961
0.779
0.834
0.880
0.899
0.935
0.924
0.907
0.868
0.907
0.980
0.982
0.854
0.891
0.909
0.999
0.978
0.945
0.971
0.912
0.970
0.968
0.968
0.795
0.853
0.883
0.876
0.940
0.927
0.911
0.871
0.950
0.948
0.887
0.825
0.962
0.875
0.940
0.882
0.817
0.958
0.866
0.973
0.927
0.825
0.965
0.893
0.969
0.915
0.813
0.960
0.885
0.989
0.965
0.874
0.981
0.935
0.976
0.928
0.821
0.964
0.890
0.940
0.975
0.931
0.965
0.950
0.977
0.934
0.967
0.984
0.997
0.942
0.972
MAXENT
AUC cvAUC
0.914
0.897
0.798
0.777
0.924
0.912
N
267
520
657
355
581
1341
2108
25
420
639
1868
1709
2567
1863
740
596
15
706
1331
389
439
2739
2642
2376
1823
956
2068
765
429
329
REFERENCES
Bolliger J., Hagedorn, F., Leifeld, J., Böhl, J., Zimmermann, S., Soliva, R. & Kienast, F. (2008)
Potential carbon-pool changes under various scenarios of land-use change in a mountainous
region (Switzerland). Ecosystems, 11, 895-907.
Bolliger, J., Kienast, F., Soliva, R. & Rutherford, G. (2007) Spatial sensitivity of species habitat
patterns to scenarios of land use change (Switzerland). Landscape Ecology, 22, 773-789.
Elith, J. & Leathwick, J. (2007) Predicting species distributions from museum and herbarium records
using multiresponse models fitted with multivariate adaptive regression splines. Diversity and
Distributions, 13, 265-275.
Elith, J., Leathwick, J.R. & Hastie, T. (2008) A working guide to boosted regression trees. Journal of
Animal Ecology, 77, 802-813.
Engler, R., Randin, C., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Araújo, M.B., Pearman, P.B.,
Albert, C.H., Choler, P., de Lamo, X., Dirnböck, T., Gómez-García, D., Grytnes, J.-A.,
Heegard, E., Høistad, F., Le Lay, G., Nogués-Bravo, D., Normand, S., Piédalu, C., Puşcaş, M.,
Sebastià, M.-T., Stanisci, A., Theurillat, J.-P., Trivedi, M., Vittoz, P. & Guisan, A. (2011)
Climate change impacts on European mountain plant diversity. Global Change Biology, 17,
2330-2341.
Fielding, A.H. & Bell, J.F. (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in
conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38–49.
Hastie, T. & Tibshirani, R.J. (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman and Hall, London.
Lehmann, A., Overton, J.M. & Leathwick, J.R. (2002) GRASP: generalized regression analysis and
spatial prediction. Ecological Modelling, 157,189-207.
-6-
Lütolf, M., Bolliger, J., Kienast, F. & Guisan, A. (2009) Scenario-based assessment of future land-use
change on butterfly species distributions. Biodiversity and Conservation, 18, 1329-1347.
Marmion, M., Parviainen, M., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R.K. & Thuiller, W. (2009) Evaluation of
consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions,
15, 59-69.
Office fédéral de la statistique (OFS) (2003) GEOSTAT: Manuel de l'utilisateur. Office Fédéral de la
Statistique, Berne, Switzerland.
Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species
geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
Schmid, H., Luder, B., Naef-Daenzer, B., Graf, R. & Zbinden, N. (1998) Schweizer Brutvogelatlas.
Verbreitung der Brutvögel in der Schweiz und im Fürstentum Liechtenstein 1993-1996.
Schweizerische Vogelwarte, Sempach, Switzerland.
Schmid, H., Zbinden, N. & Keller, V. (2004) Überwachung der Bestandsentwicklung häufiger
Brutvögel in der Schweiz. Schweizerische Vogelwarte, Sempach, Switzerland.
Steck, C.E., Bürgi, M., Bolliger, J., Kienast, F., Lehmann, A. & Gonsetz, Y. (2007) Conservation of
grasshopper diversity in a changing environment. Biological Conservation, 138, 360-370.
Zbinden, N. & Schmid, H. (1995) Das Programm der Schweizerischen Vogelwarte zur Überwachung
der Avifauna gestern und heute. Der Ornithologische Beobachter, 92, 39-58.
-7-
Appendix S2
Figure S2 The European reservoir was defined as the 72 grid cells (mostly squares of 50×50
km) of the Atlas of European breeding birds (Hagemeijer & Blair, 1997) surrounding
Switzerland (approximately a 100 km-buffer around the Swiss territory).
REFERENCES
Hagemeijer, E.J.M. & Blair, M.J. (1997) The EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds: their
distribution and abundance. T & A.D. Poyser, London.
-8-
Appendix S3
Table S3 Vulnerability indices for all regular breeding bird species of Switzerland under the
two combined scenarios of climate and land use change, A1FI×LIB (extreme) and B2×LAP
(moderate), and for the two time frames 2050 and 2100 (denoted VIa1.50, VIa1.00, VIb2.50 and
VIb2.00). The reference vulnerability index (VIref) referring to the initial level of vulnerability
is also given. It is calculated on the basis of the present-time values of the indicators IReCH,
IReEU and ITrend and by assuming AO´=AO (as a consequence IAO was set to 0.5 and IOverlap to
0). Symbol * indicates species with a vulnerability index that is potentially slightly underestimated since the
modelled distribution for these species was too optimistic according to the evaluation of an expert panel (see
Appendix S1).
Latin Name
English Name
VI ref
VI b2.50
VI b2.00
VI a1.50
VI a1.00
Accipiter gentilis
Northern Goshawk
0.281
0.282
0.282
0.263
0.255
Accipiter nisus
Eurasian Sparrowhawk
0.254
0.255
0.258
0.247
0.247
Acrocephalus arundinaceus
Great Reed Warbler
0.393
0.336
0.317
0.332
0.293
Acrocephalus palustris
Marsh Warbler
0.329
0.467
0.536
0.374
0.576
Acrocephalus scirpaceus
Eurasian Reed Warbler
0.339
0.343
0.357
0.334
0.345
Actitis hypoleucos
Common Sandpiper
0.365
0.371
0.362
0.363
0.305
Aegithalos caudatus
Long-tailed Bushtit
0.224
0.202
0.200
0.187
0.176
Aegolius funereus
Boreal Owl
0.376
0.492
0.627
0.507
0.717
Alauda arvensis
Eurasian Skylark
0.299
0.443
0.412
0.406
0.357
Alcedo atthis
Common Kingfisher
0.339
0.320
0.315
0.300
0.259
Alectoris graeca
Rock Partridge
0.422
0.421
0.439
0.471
0.558
Anas platyrhynchos
Mallard
0.300
0.337
0.331
0.301
0.294
*Anas strepera
Gadwall
0.448
0.616
0.601
0.556
0.521
Anthus pratensis
Meadow Pipit
0.411
0.487
0.551
0.648
0.722
Anthus spinoletta
Water Pipit
0.360
0.418
0.486
0.495
0.662
Anthus trivialis
Tree Pipit
0.309
0.323
0.364
0.378
0.511
Apus apus
Common Swift
0.269
0.344
0.339
0.286
0.291
Apus melba
Alpine Swift
0.355
0.237
0.212
0.290
0.265
Aquila chrysaetos
Golden Eagle
0.379
0.409
0.433
0.415
0.521
Ardea cinerea
Grey Heron
0.355
0.370
0.363
0.354
0.334
Asio otus
Long-eared Owl
0.283
0.340
0.352
0.343
0.321
Athene noctua
Little Owl
0.351
0.313
0.274
0.281
0.239
*Aythya ferina
Common Pochard
0.492
0.656
0.688
0.643
0.676
Aythya fuligula
Tufted Duck
0.415
0.464
0.521
0.471
0.580
Bonasa bonasia
Hazel Grouse
0.336
0.461
0.586
0.412
0.683
Bubo bubo
Eurasian Eagle-Owl
0.364
0.481
0.453
0.341
0.288
Buteo buteo
Common Buzzard
0.255
0.303
0.350
0.276
0.406
Caprimulgus europaeus
European Nightjar
0.416
0.289
0.253
0.323
0.219
Carduelis cabaret
Lesser Redpoll
0.359
0.429
0.497
0.445
0.665
Carduelis cannabina
Common Linnet
0.273
0.294
0.308
0.342
0.356
Carduelis carduelis
European Goldfinch
0.280
0.298
0.273
0.282
0.228
Carduelis chloris
European Greenfinch
0.262
0.276
0.254
0.269
0.221
Carduelis spinus
Eurasian Siskin
0.332
0.406
0.479
0.408
0.631
Carpodacus erythrinus
Common Rosefinch
0.502
0.673
0.721
0.637
0.749
Certhia brachydactyla
Short-toed Treecreeper
0.284
0.285
0.296
0.278
0.268
Certhia familiaris
Eurasian Treecreeper
0.249
0.365
0.443
0.366
0.379
-9-
Latin Name
English Name
VI ref
VI b2.50
VI b2.00
VI a1.50
VI a1.00
*Charadrius dubius
Little Ringed Plover
0.337
0.331
0.330
0.323
0.286
Ciconia ciconia
White Stork
0.439
0.555
0.675
0.683
0.735
Cinclus cinclus
White-throated Dipper
0.295
0.331
0.351
0.324
0.361
Coccothraustes coccothraustes
Hawfinch
0.307
0.316
0.337
0.310
0.337
Columba oenas
Stock Dove
0.359
0.395
0.387
0.373
0.353
Columba palumbus
Common Wood Pigeon
0.233
0.250
0.252
0.238
0.224
Corvus corax
Northern Raven
0.279
0.307
0.327
0.309
0.350
Corvus corone corone
Carrion Crow
0.220
0.279
0.336
0.292
0.475
Corvus frugilegus
Rook
0.379
0.420
0.447
0.517
0.562
Corvus monedula
Western Jackdaw
0.332
0.331
0.329
0.319
0.265
Coturnix coturnix
Common Quail
0.279
0.401
0.392
0.360
0.321
Crex crex
Corn Crake
0.396
0.579
0.606
0.552
0.592
Cuculus canorus
Common Cuckoo
0.242
0.225
0.226
0.230
0.220
Delichon urbicum
Common House Martin
0.305
0.356
0.302
0.316
0.252
Dendrocopos major
Great Spotted Woodpecker
0.223
0.219
0.213
0.202
0.194
Dendrocopos medius
Middle Spotted Woodpecker
0.385
0.451
0.474
0.418
0.491
Dendrocopos minor
Lesser Spotted Woodpecker
0.318
0.292
0.276
0.279
0.235
Dryocopus martius
Black Woodpecker
0.249
0.310
0.359
0.341
0.315
Emberiza calandra
Corn Bunting
0.385
0.476
0.389
0.352
0.293
Emberiza cia
Rock Bunting
0.383
0.322
0.306
0.343
0.277
Emberiza cirlus
Cirl Bunting
0.343
0.292
0.271
0.278
0.214
Emberiza citrinella
Yellowhammer
0.274
0.358
0.340
0.336
0.273
Emberiza hortulana
Ortolan Bunting
0.489
0.450
0.420
0.502
0.385
Emberiza schoeniclus
Common Reed Bunting
0.367
0.521
0.583
0.475
0.636
Erithacus rubecula
European Robin
0.231
0.226
0.237
0.227
0.281
Falco peregrinus
Peregrine Falcon
0.308
0.283
0.262
0.264
0.236
Falco subbuteo
Eurasian Hobby
0.326
0.321
0.321
0.313
0.400
Falco tinnunculus
Common Kestrel
0.221
0.211
0.208
0.255
0.234
Ficedula hypoleuca
European Pied Flycatcher
0.364
0.566
0.633
0.551
0.652
Fringilla coelebs
Common Chaffinch
0.226
0.233
0.233
0.231
0.241
Fulica atra
Eurasian Coot
0.362
0.391
0.403
0.381
0.404
*Gallinago gallinago
Common Snipe
0.523
0.528
0.525
0.528
0.530
Gallinula chloropus
Common Moorhen
0.339
0.314
0.314
0.300
0.289
Garrulus glandarius
Eurasian Jay
0.235
0.223
0.224
0.216
0.216
Glaucidium passerinum
Eurasian Pygmy Owl
0.421
0.566
0.688
0.564
0.734
Hippolais icterina
Icterine Warbler
0.449
0.547
0.610
0.612
0.694
Hippolais polyglotta
Melodious Warbler
0.382
0.346
0.344
0.335
0.295
Hirundo rustica
Barn Swallow
0.296
0.355
0.324
0.317
0.292
Ixobrychus minutus
Little Bittern
0.405
0.355
0.333
0.348
0.291
Jynx torquilla
Eurasian Wryneck
0.311
0.284
0.263
0.253
0.233
Lagopus muta
Rock Ptarmigan
0.436
0.539
0.628
0.574
0.756
Lanius collurio
Red-backed Shrike
0.279
0.263
0.239
0.266
0.218
Lanius senator
Woodchat Shrike
0.483
0.523
0.472
0.413
0.350
*Larus michahellis
Yellow-legged Gull
0.386
0.335
0.310
0.329
0.270
*Larus ridibundus
Common black-headed Gull
0.527
0.679
0.691
0.665
0.702
*Locustella luscinioides
Savi's Warbler
0.433
0.551
0.695
0.623
0.714
Locustella naevia
Common Grasshopper Warbler
0.371
0.406
0.426
0.375
0.383
Loxia curvirostra
Red Crossbill
0.269
0.407
0.506
0.403
0.620
- 10 -
Latin Name
English Name
VI ref
VI b2.50
VI b2.00
VI a1.50
VI a1.00
Lullula arborea
Woodlark
0.343
0.413
0.457
0.458
0.449
Luscinia megarhynchos
Common Nightingale
0.335
0.289
0.267
0.275
0.214
Luscinia svecica svecica
Red-spotted Bluethroat
0.426
0.622
0.681
0.649
0.687
Mergus merganser
Common Merganser
0.419
0.394
0.455
0.421
0.622
Merops apiaster
European Bee-eater
0.400
0.405
0.298
0.346
0.250
Milvus migrans
Black Kite
0.261
0.353
0.391
0.292
0.319
Milvus milvus
Red Kite
0.356
0.531
0.601
0.453
0.652
Monticola saxatilis
Rufous-tailed Rock Thrush
0.417
0.378
0.364
0.475
0.474
Monticola solitarius
Blue Rock-Thrush
0.476
0.413
0.361
0.397
0.288
Montifringilla nivalis
White-winged Snowfinch
0.423
0.512
0.584
0.538
0.726
Motacilla alba
White Wagtail
0.252
0.268
0.267
0.297
0.305
Motacilla cinerea
Grey Wagtail
0.263
0.276
0.290
0.282
0.288
*Motacilla flava
Western Yellow Wagtail
0.380
0.325
0.270
0.284
0.209
Muscicapa striata
Spotted Flycatcher
0.271
0.272
0.281
0.264
0.254
*Netta rufina
Red-crested Pochard
0.384
0.375
0.435
0.411
0.599
Nucifraga caryocatactes
Spotted Nutcracker
0.340
0.452
0.567
0.443
0.698
*Numenius arquata
Eurasian Curlew
0.486
0.762
0.787
0.723
0.787
Oenanthe oenanthe
Northern Wheatear
0.363
0.430
0.528
0.501
0.637
Oriolus oriolus
Eurasian Golden Oriole
0.319
0.302
0.291
0.283
0.240
Otus scops
Eurasian Scops Owl
0.445
0.401
0.321
0.349
0.233
*Panurus biarmicus
Bearded Reedling
0.527
0.703
0.662
0.666
0.479
Parus ater
Coal Tit
0.259
0.310
0.377
0.338
0.464
Parus caeruleus
Blue Tit
0.247
0.222
0.205
0.214
0.175
Parus cristatus
European Crested Tit
0.243
0.315
0.411
0.349
0.497
Parus major
Great Tit
0.243
0.220
0.205
0.209
0.175
Parus montanus
Willow Tit
0.226
0.268
0.347
0.292
0.454
Parus palustris
Marsh Tit
0.256
0.258
0.272
0.252
0.284
Passer domesticus
House Sparrow
0.309
0.435
0.582
0.359
0.625
Passer montanus
Eurasian Tree Sparrow
0.285
0.368
0.304
0.262
0.226
Pernis apivorus
European Honey Buzzard
0.261
0.256
0.267
0.249
0.245
Phoenicurus ochruros
Black Redstart
0.228
0.332
0.424
0.418
0.528
Phoenicurus phoenicurus
Common Redstart
0.295
0.281
0.283
0.265
0.260
Phylloscopus bonelli
Western Bonelli's Warbler
0.310
0.340
0.372
0.334
0.357
Phylloscopus collybita
Common Chiffchaff
0.234
0.246
0.256
0.261
0.298
Phylloscopus sibilatrix
Wood Warbler
0.304
0.331
0.345
0.297
0.303
*Phylloscopus trochilus
Willow Warbler
0.350
0.410
0.458
0.403
0.473
Pica pica
Eurasian Magpie
0.257
0.342
0.390
0.296
0.380
Picoides tridactylus
Eurasian Three-toed Woodpecker
0.468
0.635
0.749
0.613
0.763
Picus canus
Grey-headed Woodpecker
0.304
0.396
0.460
0.361
0.490
Picus viridis
European Green Woodpecker
0.236
0.221
0.225
0.213
0.208
*Podiceps cristatus
Great Crested Grebe
0.400
0.442
0.485
0.450
0.511
*Podiceps nigricollis
Black-necked Grebe
0.501
0.602
0.559
0.586
0.460
Porzana porzana
Spotted Crake
0.432
0.669
0.671
0.516
0.529
Prunella collaris
Alpine Accentor
0.419
0.480
0.539
0.531
0.681
Prunella modularis
Dunnock
0.256
0.303
0.417
0.403
0.631
Ptyonoprogne rupestris
Eurasian Crag Martin
0.359
0.344
0.307
0.333
0.266
Pyrrhocorax graculus
Alpine Chough
0.379
0.400
0.409
0.442
0.482
*Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax
Red-billed Chough
0.439
0.508
0.485
0.537
0.470
- 11 -
Latin Name
English Name
VI ref
VI b2.50
VI b2.00
VI a1.50
VI a1.00
Pyrrhula pyrrhula
Eurasian Bullfinch
0.286
0.401
0.490
0.404
0.608
Rallus aquaticus
Water Rail
0.368
0.353
0.359
0.340
0.337
Regulus ignicapilla
Firecrest
0.281
0.406
0.502
0.397
0.658
Regulus regulus
Goldcrest
0.250
0.337
0.426
0.335
0.546
*Riparia riparia
Sand Martin
0.388
0.439
0.415
0.376
0.354
Saxicola rubetra
Whinchat
0.335
0.471
0.542
0.505
0.653
Saxicola torquatus
Eurasian Stonechat
0.320
0.328
0.317
0.310
0.272
Scolopax rusticola
Eurasian Woodcock
0.349
0.412
0.525
0.441
0.653
Serinus citrinella
Citril Finch
0.389
0.522
0.651
0.571
0.746
Serinus serinus
European Serin
0.267
0.299
0.277
0.284
0.234
Sitta europaea
Eurasian Nuthatch
0.257
0.252
0.249
0.237
0.227
*Sterna hirundo
Common Tern
0.436
0.502
0.507
0.511
0.515
Streptopelia decaocto
Eurasian Collared Dove
0.296
0.269
0.243
0.263
0.205
Streptopelia turtur
European Turtle Dove
0.350
0.328
0.302
0.309
0.253
Strix aluco
Tawny Owl
0.274
0.283
0.299
0.291
0.347
Sturnus vulgaris
Common Starling
0.281
0.341
0.324
0.297
0.270
Sylvia atricapilla
Eurasian Blackcap
0.233
0.212
0.200
0.203
0.172
Sylvia borin
Garden Warbler
0.263
0.353
0.449
0.369
0.612
Sylvia communis
Common Whitethroat
0.277
0.351
0.330
0.297
0.248
Sylvia curruca
Lesser Whitethroat
0.269
0.270
0.319
0.350
0.449
Sylvia nisoria
Barred Warbler
0.627
0.724
0.662
0.730
0.515
*Tachybaptus ruficollis
Little Grebe
0.367
0.354
0.356
0.335
0.323
Tetrao tetrix
Black Grouse
0.416
0.478
0.577
0.531
0.702
*Tetrao urogallus
Western Capercaillie
0.406
0.577
0.698
0.560
0.723
Tichodroma muraria
Wallcreeper
0.405
0.412
0.419
0.410
0.428
Troglodytes troglodytes
Winter Wren
0.224
0.230
0.243
0.232
0.262
Turdus merula
Common Blackbird
0.235
0.218
0.211
0.209
0.192
Turdus philomelos
Song Thrush
0.265
0.340
0.428
0.312
0.507
Turdus pilaris
Fieldfare
0.292
0.523
0.630
0.504
0.694
Turdus torquatus
Ring Ouzel
0.375
0.510
0.634
0.555
0.709
Turdus viscivorus
Mistle Thrush
0.253
0.323
0.425
0.359
0.540
Tyto alba
Barn Owl
0.337
0.475
0.539
0.339
0.375
Upupa epops
Eurasian Hoopoe
0.338
0.289
0.256
0.267
0.209
Vanellus vanellus
Northern Lapwing
0.410
0.640
0.723
0.646
0.728
- 12 -
Appendix S4
The effect of different weightings of the indicators on the vulnerability index
The weighting of the different indicators is admittedly arbitrary. For the vulnerability index
presented here, we weighted the three operational aspects of vulnerability (change in
distribution, reservoirs and population trend) equally (see Fig. 1 in the main text).
We explored the effects of seven other weightings (see Table S4.1) on the resulting
vulnerability index. VI-2 is the vulnerability index proposed in this paper. VI-1 is simply the
average of the 5 base indicators. VI-3 and VI-4 give more weight to ITrend, while VI-5 gives a
higher weight to the change in distribution and VI-6 gives a higher weight to the reservoirs.
VI-7 and VI-8 represent subsets of the index: VI-8 considers the change in distribution and
reservoirs, while VI-7 only considers the change in distribution.
Table S4.1 Various weightings of the indicators to explore the effect of weightings on the
final vulnerability index (VI). VI-2 is the vulnerability index proposed in this paper.
Index
Index calculation
VI-1
[IAO + IOverlap + IReCH + IReEU + ITrend]/5
VI-2
[(IAO + IOverlap)/2 + (IReCH + IReEU)/2 + ITrend]/3
VI-3
[(IAO + IOverlap)/2 + (IReCH + IReEU)/2 + 2*ITrend]/4
VI-4
[(IAO + IOverlap)/2 + (IReCH + IReEU)/2 + 1.5*ITrend]/3.5
VI-5
[IAO + IOverlap + (IReCH + IReEU)/2 + ITrend]/4
VI-6
[(IAO + IOverlap)/2 + IReCH + IReEU + ITrend]/4
VI-7
(IAO + IOverlap)/2
VI-8
[(IAO + IOverlap)/2 + (IReCH + IReEU)/2]/2
The ranking of the species according to the vulnerability index proposed in this paper, VI-2, is
highly correlated (correlation coefficients >= 0.974) to the ranking of the tested alternative
indices VI-1 to VI-6 for all the four scenarios considered (VIa1.50, VIb2.50, VIa1.00, and VIb2.00)
as shown in Table S4.2. A reasonably good correlation also exist with indices that only
integrates a subsample of the base indicators: correlations with VI-7 (only 2 indicators
expressing the change in distribution) starts from 0.742, and correlations with VI-8 (indicators
on distributional change and reservoirs) are higher than 0.975 for the different scenarios and
time horizons. These results suggest that the integration of the reservoirs does significantly
modify the sequence of the species along the vulnerability gradient but without
revolutionizing it, and that population trend only has a marginal effect on the final ranking.
- 13 -
Table S4.2 Spearman's rank correlation between the proposed index (VI-2) and different
alternative indices calculated applying different weighting to the base indicators (see table
S4.1 for description). Correlations are calculated for the four scenarios VIa1.50, VIb2.50, VIa1.00,
and VIb2.00.
Comparison
VI-2 – VI-1
VI-2 – VI-3
VI-2 – VI-4
VI-2 – VI-5
VI-2 – VI-6
VI-2 – VI-7
VI-2 – VI-8
VIb2.50
VIb2.00
VIa1.50
VIa1.00
0.993
0.975
0.993
0.979
0.978
0.752
0.975
0.995
0.984
0.996
0.986
0.983
0.832
0.983
0.993
0.974
0.993
0.977
0.979
0.742
0.979
0.996
0.989
0.996
0.984
0.986
0.830
0.984
- 14 -