UN LOGO
Climate change and
urban development in
Viet Nam
DRAFT -- 20 December 2010
Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Table of Contents
LIST OF ACRONYMS
III
1.
INTRODUCTION
1
1.1
Objective of this paper
1
1.2
The scope and structure of this paper
2
2.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN POLICY CHALLENGES
3
2.1
Climate change policy
3
2.2
Urban development policy
4
2.3
Migration policy
5
2.4
International climate change policy and cooperation
6
2.5
Policy recommendations
9
3. URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES AND
ADAPTATION
9
3.1 Urban climate change risks in Viet Nam
Climate change scenarios
Climate change primary effects
9
9
10
3.2 Climate change, urban vulnerabilities, and migration
Vulnerable people and living places
Migration to towns and cities
Governance, grass roots democracy and urban development
14
14
15
16
3.3 Urban economies at risk
Climate change threats to economic development
Climate change threats to urban infrastructure
Costs of climate change effects and benefits from early investment in adaptation
Urban planning
17
17
18
21
21
3.4 Conclusions and recommendations re urban adaptation
Develop urban adaptation policy and coordination
Strengthen urban governance for climate resilience
Strengthen urban planning
Enable migrants’ livelihoods and reduce their vulnerabilities
Climate proofing of infrastructure
Strengthen economic analysis and investment decisions
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
4. LOW CARBON URBAN DEVELOPMENT NEEDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
4.1 Urbanization and economic growth
Cities are growth engines
26
26
26
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Sustaining urban growth
27
4.2 Urban greenhouse gas emissions
Low carbon urban development potential
Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
28
28
29
4.3 Developing low carbon, clean cities
Urban planning and GHG emissions mitigation
Fiscal measures and international finance for low carbon urban development
31
31
32
4.4
Recommendations: mitigation of urban GHG emissions
33
5.
URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
5.1
The urban sprawl in Viet Nam
36
5.2
Urban planning in Viet Nam
37
5.3
Urban planning and climate change
39
6.
SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
36
42
ANNEX EXAMPLES OF URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION CHALLENGES
43
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
Case 5
Case 6
Case 7
Case 8
Case 9
Gaps in Drainage Infrastructure and Inconsistent Maintenance
Phu My Hung: Infill in Flood Prone areas Transfers Risk
Illegal Encroachment Reduces Lakes and Open Spaces
District 2, HCMC: Ad Hoc Approach to Climate Proofing
Ineffective Land Use In Peri-Urban Areas Affects Absorption Capacity
Poorly Coordinated Plans Undermine Development Controls
Unplanned Areas Lack Adaptive Design and Infrastructure
“Hard” Adaptation Can Lead to the Transfer of Risks
Poor Data Sharing and Spatial Analysis Deprives Planners of a Key Tool
43
43
43
44
44
44
44
44
45
REFERENCES
46
ENDNOTES
48
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
List of Acronyms
AWG-LCA
BAU
CDM
COP
EE
FDI
GHG
LCDS
LECZ
MARD
MICs
MOC
MOF
MOIT
MONRE
MOST
MOT
MPI
NAMAs
NAP
NTP-RCC
RE
REDD
SEDP
SEDS
UNFCCC
Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (under UNFCCC)
business as usual
Clean Development Mechanism (under the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC)
Conference of Parties (of the UNFCCC)
energy efficiency
Foreign Direct Investment
greenhouse gas
Low-Carbon Development Strategy
Low Elevation Coastal Zone (less than 10m above mean sea level)
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Middle Income Countries
Ministry of Construction
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Industry and Trade
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Ministry of Science and Technology
Ministry of Transportation
Ministry of Planning and Investment
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
National Adaptation Plan
National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change
renewable energy
Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation
Social Economic Development Plan (2011-2015)
Social Economic Development Strategy (2011-2020)
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
1.Introduction
“As a country that would be worst affected by climate change due to its long coastline that
harbors a series of economic zones and large populations….we are fully aware of the grave
challenges that climate change is and will pose to our people and country.” Speech by President
Nguyen Minh Triet, UN Summit on Climate Change, September 2009.
“Viet Nam will only have one chance to get urbanization right. If we fail at urbanization, we
will fail at industrialization and modernization.” Deputy PM Nguyen Sinh Hung National Urban
Conference (November 6-7, 2009).
1.1
Objective of this paper
Viet Nam is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Many cities are
located in coastal zones that are prone to sea level rise and tropical storms, and there are other
climatic stresses. Climate change causes worse droughts, stresses on water supply, and heavier
rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, urban development is reducing water storage capacities of cities:
storm-flood problems are worsening for several reasons, and now includes climate change.
Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta, with many cities and towns, are particularly vulnerable
to such climate change effects, as well as coastal towns and cities such as industrialising Danang and
historic Hoi An. Within towns and cities, poor neighbourhoods and disadvantaged population groups
are especially vulnerable. The main climatic hazards as well as lesser but repeated climatic stresses
affect disadvantaged women, children, elderly, employees, and people making their living in the
informal sector, including many migrants. Their numbers are increasing with enhanced rural to
urban migration because of climatic stresses. City planners, utilities, and social and livelihood
support services and programmes must therefore take climate change vulnerabilities into account.
Cities are engines of growth and innovation, as Viet Nam is urbanising and industrialising. But
economic growth is increasingly under threat of calamities. The annual costs of natural disasters in
Viet Nam have been estimated as more than 1 percent of annual GDP already1. Furthermore, the
effects of climate change limit hydroelectricity generation as Viet Nam is under pressure from
exceptionally dry rainy seasons that leave lakes below capacity2.
Growth goes with rapid increase in the use of energy including fossil fuels, and air and water
pollution. The intense use of fossil fuels in electricity generation, transport and production is
associated with increased respiratory diseases. In particular coal is a cheap and available fuel for
expanded electricity generation (which is critical for cities) and industrial production, which is a
cause of air pollution, especially in cities.
Viet Nam is not obliged by international law to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but by global
agreement it is expected to make all efforts possible3. Indeed, there are possibilities for expansion of
renewable energy generation as well as for improving energy efficiency in manufacturing, transport
and buildings, and that are economic whilst they may have co-benefits such as improved air quality.
Climate change is a call for accelerating good development policy and practice4. Without
additional action the risks for economic losses, social disruption and environmental degradation are
rapidly increasing. In addition, domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) can enhance
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
energy efficiency and drive renewable energy generation, and create export opportunities, as most
(technological) innovation takes root in cities. With the right policies, services and investments,
climate change actions can thus deliver multiple benefits.
It is important for Viet Nam “to get urbanization right” as stated by Deputy PM Nguyen Sinh
Hung National Urban Conference (November 6-7, 2009). This study aims to draw out the main policy
questions for Viet Nam in the short and long term future of urban development in the context of
climate change, and recommend policy directions.
1.2
The scope and structure of this paper
This paper addresses climate change effects and the appropriate responses for moving towards
climate change resilient cities, as well as low carbon development opportunities that can deliver
economic, social and environmental benefits. It analysis the main challenges in Vietnamese towns
and cities and draws on international experiences, in particular for suggesting ways forward.
Chapter 2 addresses policy challenges, including current climate change policy, urban
development policy and migration policy, and what is needed for this to contribute to climate
resilient cities and low carbon sustainable development. It also discusses the international context,
in which certain policy instruments for international financial and technological support have been
agreed. This addresses how technical cooperation and international partnerships outside the formal
UN climate change process that can benefit cities and towns in Viet Nam.
In chapter 3 a range of urban development challenges are discussed in the context of climate
change stresses on infrastructure, services and people, with specific attention to the most vulnerable
people and urban economies. This includes climate change risks and vulnerabilities; a broad
assessment of capacities and awareness of enterprises, local government, communities and
households; possible social, economic and environmental climate change impacts; and priorities for
adaptive action and investment (including monitoring, learning and adjustment).
Chapter 4 discusses the consequences for Viet Nam of the global need to limit greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions and the opportunities for, as well as local benefits from promoting low carbon
development in towns and cities. It addresses opportunities for strategic policy actions in the public
sphere, and ways to enable and encourage the private sector to create and take opportunities for
low carbon development, with domestic as well as international finance.
In chapter 5 the general approach to urban development is analysed, and specifically urban
planning systems and practices within the context of climate change. This recommends an approach
to city planning that is strategic, flexible, and action oriented. It also discusses priorities for policy
action to enhance the opportunities that cities have for moving towards climate resilient and low
carbon development paths.
Chapter 6 summarises the conclusions and recommendations.
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2.Climate change and urban policy challenges
“It is essential to enhance cooperation in response to global challenges like climate
change, food and energy security, environmental degradation, natural disasters and diseases”
– HE Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, ASEAN summit
"At present, choosing the place, shape and infrastructure for new urban areas depends on
the inspiration of investors," Pham Sy Liem, Director of the Urban Research and Infrastructure
Development Institute5
“Developed countries and those having a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions have a
responsibility in supporting developing countries, especially those suffered the most from climate
change and sea level rise (including Viet Nam), by new financial mechanisms, technological
transfer, the adaptation fund and capacity-building in climate change adaptation.” HE Pham Khoi
Nguyen, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, press conference after COP15
2.1
Climate change policy
Viet Nam has reinforced its policy framework since the magnitude of the climate change
challenge became clear to the world6. It issued the National Target Programme to Respond to
Climate Change (NTP-RCC) in 20087. Currently many sector ministries, provinces and city authorities
are formulating their Action Plans to respond to climate change, under the NTP-RCC. Climate change
scenarios (scientific predictions of climate change and basic effects such as sea level rise) have been
produced by MONRE, and local departments are using these data to formulate their Action Plans.
Guiding Principles of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change [check]
1) Response to climate change should follow the principles of sustainable development,
integration, sector/inter-sector, and region/interregional;
2) Activities responding to climate change must be carried out with clear focuses to effectively
respond to immediate impacts as well as potential long-term impacts; the NTP is developed on the
principle that proposed projects must be immediately implemented. Investment is considered
economically effective in terms of mitigation of [????].
3) Response to climate change is the responsibility of the whole political system; society; sectors,
organizations at all levels; communities and every individual. Response to climate change is a global,
regional and national issue;
4) Climate change issues must be integrated into development strategies, plans, planning at all
sectors and levels; into strategic environmental assessment, legal documents and policy institutions;
into legal documents development and implementation;
5) Following the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” as defined in the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Viet Nam will successfully implement climate
change response program if it receives sufficient finance and technology transfer from developed
countries as well as other international funding sources.
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Viet Nam also has a National Target Programme on Economical and Efficient Use of Energy (NTPEE, 20068). And Viet Nam has policies on urban development, sustainable development, water
supply, electricity generation, and Disaster Risk Management (DRM), which all have a bearing on the
climate change challenges.
Viet Nam has chosen to base planning to respond to climate change on a medium IPCC
greenhouse gas emissions scenario, which leads to predictions of 30 cm mean sea level rise by 2050
(compared to the period 1980-1990).9 129 out of total 752 country’s urban centres are located at
the coast with total population 7 million in 2008.10 [these data are different from similar data in
other parts of the text, based on different references: what to believe?] For example, the Ministry of
Construction (MOC) is developing a proposal on coastal urban development in the context of sea
level rise [ref?]. Several urban pilot projects, most notably ACCCRN, the World Bank’s Climate
Resilient Cities, and the MegaCity Project, have begun assessment and planning in some of Viet
Nam’s most vulnerable cites.11 The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) is
studying issues of flooding in rural and also urban areas.
Although Viet Nam’s carbon dioxide emissions remain low and it internationally not obligated to
reduce emissions, it is important to take effective measures to mitigate GHG emissions now as the
world needs all countries to act and there may be several additional benefits to Viet Nam. The NTPRCC also addresses mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including: “(i) Apply technologies
which allow lower emission amount than currently used one in all socio-economic activities; and (ii)
Develop policies and management methods available to implement the objectives to increase
greenhouse gas sinks.”12 Although there are no detailed policy directives for reducing GHG emissions
in urban areas, mitigation opportunities are closely linked with national energy policies.13 The
Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has already finalised its Action Plan to respond to climate
change, which will help the country limit its growth in GHG emissions from industry and electricity
generation.
[in this section there should be minimally a reference to disaster risks reduction policies that
have relevance to vulnerability reduction, resilience creation at the grassroots / community level]
2.2
Urban development policy
The Government has set out a strong and renewed emphasis on Viet Nam’s urban transition.
The objective is to develop and strengthen a ‘national urban system’ comprised of urban centres of
various scales and types, distributed across the country.
Over the last two decades, Viet Nam has been following a pro-growth urban development policy.
From the urban development guideline policy in 1998 to the revised version in 2009, the urban
growth target remains high (3% to 4% per year), up to 2025 and 2050. Together with a high growth
rate, the quality of growth should be ensured as stated by the Prime Minister last year:
‘From 2010 to 2025, we should ‘establish and complete the Viet Nam urban system in the form of
network cities; having appropriate, advanced, and adequate social and physical structure; sound
environment and living quality; advanced architecture and rich cultural feature; competitive in
the national and regional areas, contributed to development and protection of the nation’14.
The Prime Minister has issued a decision on the Adjusted Orientation of Master Plan for
Development of Urban System of Viet Nam toward 2025 and Vision toward 205015. The objectives of
this orientation are to gradually develop a network of urban centres throughout the country, with
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suitable, integrated, modern technical and social infrastructure, good environment and good quality
of life, advanced architecture with national identity, and high competitiveness. The strategic vision
for the urban system and technical infrastructure includes the following:
 The national urban network in the period of 2025-2050 will be modern and industrialized
with a focus on services and tourism development;
 Viet Nam will have international level urban centres that play a role in global urban
networks;
 Viet Nam will become a strategic destination for regional and global tourism and services, as
urban development is linked with the coastal, island, border economy;
 There will be regional development axes, including border corridors, coastal zones and
North-South, East-West corridor axes;
 Regions and urban centres will increase their competitiveness by improving regional
management, and developing industrial zones, ports, service areas in strategic regions.
 Local culture and tourism development will be promoted;
 A national management system of environment and urban development developed; land
management will be strengthened; people will have a comfortable living environment ;
water supply for urban centres of class V and rural areas will be ensured;
 A national transport and communication network will be promoted, with regional transport
networks and that will be connected later to the national network, increasing Viet Nam’s
role as a hub for South-East Asia and Asia.
However, there is lack of vision and strategic direction in most Vietnamese cities. Most do not
take climate change adaptation or mitigation of GHG emissions into consideration in their urban
planning and construction. Urban development in Viet Nam has a high degree of informality
resulting in ad hoc development [the meaning of this must be explained, and the evidence].
Improving informal developments is significantly more expensive [because ...?], and is socially and
legally challenging. For example, new residential estates and industrial parks are still often planned
in low lying and flood prone areas.
[there is a need to discuss governance and especially democracy policies here, laying the
grounds for grass roots and civil society participation in chapter 3 in particular. Also important is to
refer to gender policies, social security / protection policies and how those are especially relevant to
reducing vulnerabilities. In addition, industrial and transport p[olicies impact on cities, especially as
regards GHG emissions, and must also be mentioned]
2.3
Migration policy
Historically, national policy was to strictly controlled rural to urban migration using a system a
household registration (ho khau). While this system has been relaxed and modified in recent years,
migrants still struggle to attain permanent resident status and access urban services. Incentives are
still in place to encourage rural residents to stay in their home districts. Migrants who take up
temporary residence in urban areas experience restricted access to basic services – e.g. health,
education,16 and their ability to by real estate is also restructed.
Of the 1.8 million migrants living in HCMC, 87% of these temporary residents have KT-4 status registered as individuals without a family - which prohibits them from owning land.17 Many KT-4
residents live in private residential boarding houses. Other migrants are not registered at all and
often live at the building site in self made (wooden) structures or in the unfinished building without
any sanitary facilities. Applying for a more permanent resident status, such as KT-1 or KT-2, is
challenging for many migrants who lack stable and permanent jobs in the formal sector and do not
have documents to prove their legal housing status. 18 [the registration classification must be
explained, eg in a box]
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Cities face needs for relocation within cities, as residents avoid flood prone areas, and inbound
migration from rural areas.19 Seasonal migration, which currently accounts for a large percentage of
migrants in the Mekong Delta,20 is also likely to increase as agriculture is negatively affected by
climate change and sea level rise apart from economic transition processes that are already ibn
motion. These migrants search for safe and affordable accommodation in cities but some are overcrowed, over-priced, and unwelcoming for unregistered migrants.
While policy changes could help migrants to increase their resilience especially when compared
to their situation in sending areas, good planning is needed so that migrants can be fully included in
the urban fabric. Urban planning – particularly around industrial zones - must take account of the
spatial patterns of migrant communities and their vulnerabilities. Recognizing these communities
and working with community groups will help identify local adaptation measures. [this is a
recommendation – to chapter 3? To section 2.5?].
National policy aims to limit migration to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and develop secondary
towns and cities. This can be achieved with social housing in those towns and cities, stimulating their
economies, simplify migrant registration procedures, etc. [this is repeated in vulnerability chapter
recs, chapter 3]
2.4
International climate change policy and cooperation
Viet Nam is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), and has ratified the Kyoto Protocol (KP). By these agreements Viet Nam would be defined
as particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, making it eligible for support
from developed nations. As a developing country it is not obliged to support “domestic actions” for
mitigation of GHG emissions, but it is also eligible for support from developed countries to do so.
In the agreements in Cancun, Mexico (December 2010) the Conference of Parties (COP) of the
UNFCC did agree on a range of mechanisms and instruments that will help enhance implementation
of such internationally supported adaptation and mitigation actions. These agreements are not very
specific on the role of local authorities, businesses and indeed cities in this regard, but it is clear that
cities and towns must play a core role in implementation.
International financial support and technology transfer for climate change responses is likely to
increase significantly in the coming years and decades, whilst Viet Nam’s regular ODA may reduce as
it now has reached Middle Income Country (MIC) status. The result is expected to be that a
significant share of total ODA to Viet Nam thus be climate change focused.
However, it is also expected that international climate finance will not cover all the financial
needs and that significant domestic and private sector financing will be required for both climate
change adaptation and GHG mitigation actions. This also means that international finance must be
strategically used, especially for technical assistance and capacity building, and for pilot investments
that test new and innovative approaches. Some developing countries have also stepped up their
“partnership approaches” with Viet Nam, meaning that as they reduce ODA they increase scientific
and technical exchanges between a range of specialised organisations, for example in water
management.
Climate change response capacities of a city include technical and financial capabilities of the
local government and key stakeholders. It is clear from recent assessments that this is lacking at
municipal levels, especially for adaptation 21. Therefore, new mechanisms must be developed to
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
coordinate stakeholders, increase technical capacity and channel international financial support to
build capacities, build climate proof infrastructure and increase resilience. Internationally it is now
agreed that developing countries will develop national adaptation plans (NAPs) as the basis for
prioritised adaptation actions, including identification of what would be internationally supported
with finance and technology transfer22.
Well coordinated efforts at energy efficiency improvement and GHG emissions mitigation in Viet
Nam’s cities is critical, as many measures potentially economic, environmental and also social cobenefits for producers and residents. In this area there are many possibilities for involving the
private sector through different measures including fiscal policy and public-private partnerships
(PPPs), incentives for private sector action, elimination of market distortions, and significant flows of
finance. [this is or should lead to a recommendation in this section or the final section of this
chapter]
The international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC also reached basic agreement on the
formulation and registration of NAMAs, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions23. NAMAs are
expected to be programmatic documents for, for example, industrial subsectors (nationwide) and
for towns and cities as geographic units with large potential to reduce emissions. Once submitted to
a (to be established) central register access to different new and existing financial sources and
technological cooperation should be enabled. [one rec here or in the final section of this chapter is
to urgently explore / develop NAMAs, for cities and towns and sub-sectors of industry]
The NTP-RCC and the Action Plans to respond to climate change that are currently being
developed by sector ministries and municipal authorities, and the planned formulation of a national
climate change strategy are important building blocks for developing detailed, fundable, practical
and above all prioritised adaptation actions (under the NAP) and NAMAs for international assistance
with potentially major benefits to Viet Nam’s towns and cities.
There are also processes ongoing with potentially important benefits from international
cooperation. Specifically on climate change there are several international networks of towns and
cities that are facilitating technical exchanges and learning and also financing of capacity building
and investments on increasing climate resilience of towns and cities and moving whole cities
towards carbon neutrality – this is mostly outside the formal international policy process of the
UNFCCC.
[Here we need explanations of the role and climate change relevant actions coordinated/
stimulated by ICLEI, Mayors ....also ACCCRN etc and mention some of the towns and cities of Viet
Nam that have strarted to take part. This will lead to a recommendation for the national association
of towns and cities and individuals towns and cities to step up their international city-to city
cooperation and become more active in taking part in networks. Recommendations here or in final
section of this chapter?]
[the following is a recommendation, which before my editing appeared to be cut and paste from
an international paper .... should it be here or in the final section of this chapter?
Climate change cuts across all parts of government, there is a need for involving not only
MONRE and related offices, but also MPI, MOF. Addressing climate change requires leadership at the
highest level of government, and indeed the Prime Minister is chairing the national steering
committee that oversees the NTP-RCC and other climate change policy. Critical is strong
coordination including central government–local authority coordination to encourage local (city,
town) adaptation actions, and to strengthen local capacity in planning and implementing initiatives
addressing climate change.]
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Table [...] Initiatives on Climate Change Responses in Cities in Viet Nam [If this table is
maintained it should be made more meaningful in explaining different international networks and
opportunities for int cooperation, and be referred to in the text. It is now about a small sample of
internationally supported projects, which is not so meaningful and always outdated – we need an
indication of what cities can link to and take part in for responding to climate change challenges.]
Initiative
Participation
Hanoi and
Can Tho -Local
Resilience
Action Plans
(2010)
LRAP Team:
DONRE (head), DARD
(vice head), DOC,
Hanoi PC, DPI, DCST,
DPA, DoST, DoT,
World Bank
Can Tho, Quy
Nhon and Da
Nang ACCCRN –
Asian Cities
Climate
Change
Resilience
Network
Department of
Natural Resources
and Environment,
Department of
Foreign Affairs and,
in Can Tho, The
Centre for Natural
Resource and
Environment
Monitoring(CENREM)
HCMC- cc
impacts and
adaptation
analysis (2008)
HCMC Megacity
Project (20082013)
Purpose
Build the capacity of
the city to prepare for
and proactively respond
to multiple natural
disasters including
climate change via a
comprehensive and
holistically built LRAP.
Assessment of
impacts and
vulnerabilities,
development of
strategies and pilot
project implementation
2) City-level engagement (Shared
Learning Dialogues with key stakeholders
and capacity development)
3) Implementation of urban resilience
projects
International
partners: the
Rockefeller
Foundation, ISET,
Challenge to Change,
ARUP
ADB, Ho Chi Minh
City
…
Contents
- Vulnerability assessment based on spatial
analysis and stakeholder consultation,
- Inventory of national and local plans and
programs that may affect vulnerabilities and
resilience,
- Identify applicable adaptation and disaster
risk management measures
- Define priorities among those actions and
provide a city action plan on how to
implement those priority actions. (1) (2)
Phases:
1) City scoping and selection (identifying
partners and vulnerabilities)
4) Replication (networking, monitoring
and leveraging additional funds)
Strategies to promote
sustainable urban
development adapted
to climate change
Strategies to increase
the resilience and
adaptive capacity of the
urban system of HCMC
- Assessment of the “direct” impacts on
economic assets, social variables,
environmental assets and environmental
quality
- Development of sustainable housing
policies
- Development of adaptation planning
framework, incl. sustainability indicator
framework, spatial urban and environmental
planning information system, spatial
vulnerability and impact assessment,
identification and appraisal of options for
adaptation, administrative integration and
environmental governance, quality of the
administrative and institutional
communication practices between scientists,
planners and urban authorities.
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
2.5
Policy recommendations
[this should refer back to what is analysed / presented earlier in this chapter]
3.Urban climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation
[This chapter should use more data from eg documents by Rockefeller/NISTPAS/ISET/CtC re their
three cities, and ADB re HCMC, as well as stuff on Hanoi and Haiphong from the WB. The text as it
stands is also nearly gender blind, which cannot be acceptable just based on the UN-Oxfam VN
paper on climate change and gender, and there must be urban development literature that shows
what is critical in VN and beyond.]
3.1
Urban climate change risks in Viet Nam
[this section should present climate findings, risks, and explain that the climate change stresses
and shocks are additional to a large body of existing urban challenges]
Climate change scenarios
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) has published a summary of
observed climatic and mean sea level data over the past decades as well as the official climate
change projections for Viet Nam through the 21st century. The projections were calculated for
different global IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with several Global Circulation Models. The
results are being used by planners and decision makers in different sectors. Some findings with
relevance for the whole of the country are summarised in Figure [...].



From 1958-2007, Viet Nam experienced
An average temperature increase of 0.5-0.7oC24
An annual rainfall decrease of about 2%
A typhoon track which moved southward and typhoon seasons which ended later




By 2100, Viet Nam will experience
Average temperature increases of 1.6-2.8oC
Sea Level Rise of 75cm to 1m
Annual rainfall increase of about 5%
Typhoons increase in frequency and severity
Source: MONRE (2009: 16)25
Figure [...] Summary of climate change effects in Viet Nam
[There are no reasons why we should follow only the “official” medium scenario, as was done
here. In fact there are only reasons to doubt the wisdom of that as the world is on a path well above
the high emissions scenario that MONRE also used. The figure and the text must explain more and
better the range of findings (between scenarios) from this report – see also UN factsheet mentioned
in references, and propose what is the best for current urban development policy makers]
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Viet Nam has chosen to base planning decisions on a medium IPCC emissions scenario and in
addition have accounted for some melting of land ice (unlike IPCC, 2007), until further data become
available.26 However, the world is on a path well above the medium emissions scenario used, and
without major global emissions cuts in the near future the most likely result is at the upper end of
the estimates for climatic changes given in the figure above, and worse. These climate change
effects must be understood as increased strength and frequency of climatic hazards or shocks and
additional stresses, i.e. additional to the development challenges already faced by towns and cities
and their populations.
Climate change primary effects
Many cities in the coastal zone of Viet Nam are already experiencing the effects of climate
change, in particular sea level rise and associated enhanced saline water intrusion, extreme rainfall
with local flooding, and repeated droughts. There are also increasingly severe tropical storms in the
central region although this observation is primarily based on anecdotal experience and evidence
from observed data and statistical analysis is not yet conclusive. But IPCC data suggest that it is
likely that such storms are becoming more severe, globally, whilst further work on changes in
climatic extremes is ongoing (as distinct from the above suggested changes in averages).
It is those extremes that cause havoc, in the present and near future as well as long term future,
and climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme events. Typhoons
are increasing in frequency and severity, globally, and indeed tropical storms are likely to continue to
get worse also in SE Asia. Several extreme weather events in Viet Nam over the past years have shed
light on the vulnerability of cities to extreme weather. Typhoons historically hit the central cities of
Hue and Danang but are now also affecting south-central cities, such as Quy Nhon and Nha Trang.
According to a recent report Viet Nam ranks 5th in the world in terms of impacts of climate-related
natural disasters over the period 1990-2009, with an index made up principally of the death toll and
economic losses27.
Typhoons and the Cost of Damage
Over the last decade an average of six to eight typhoons (or tropical storms) have struck Viet
Nam annually. For example, storm Xangsane made landfall near Danang in 2006, resulting in the
evacuation of 300,000 residents from low lying areas. The storm eventually left 72 dead, injured
more than 532, and cost USD 624 million in damages.28 [give another example, preferably of 2010;
use CCFSC website data]
Typhoons have proved particularly damaging in urban areas where some buildings are below
standard. While flooding in Viet Nam affects more people annually that storms (59% of residents
affected by disasters compared with 32% for storms), approximately half of the economic damages
(by total value) are caused by storms.29
The World Bank estimates the annual cost of damage for all natural disasters over the last 20
years at 900 million USD per year (approximately 1% of GDP [PPP or not?]). The worst years have
seen damages over 3 billion USD.30
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
The figure below summarises the enhanced risks of climate change stresses and shocks for urban
areas, with a focus on effects of vulnerable people. These climatic risks are generic but all of them
also apply to the urban population in Viet Nam. Differences in vulnerabilities of certain communities
and disadvantaged groups depend on local circumstances and vary from city to city and town to
town – some specifics in this regard are discussed in section 3.2.
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Climate change
Risks for urban areas
effects
Changes in extremes
Extreme rainfall /
 more intense flooding and higher
tropical cyclones /
risk of landslides
storm surges
 disruption to livelihoods and city
economies
 damage to homes, businesses and
infrastructure
Drought
 water shortages
 higher food and water prices
 disruption of hydro-electricity
 distress migration from rural areas
Heat or cold-waves


Changes in means
Temperature

Precipitation




Sea level rise








short-term increase in energy
demands for heating / cooling
Heat stress from heat waves (with
impacts more serious in heat
islands, i.e. big cities)

increased temperature bringing
increased electricity demands for
cooling, worsening of air quality; in
many places also contributing to
water shortages
increased risk of (repeated) flooding
and associated pollution
increased risk of landslides
distress migration from rural areas
interruption of food supply
networks
coastal flooding more frequent and
worse
reduced income from agriculture
and tourism
salinization of water sources


Changes in exposure
Population
 movements from stressed rural
movement
habitats
Biological changes
Implications / risks for
vulnerable people
extended vector habitats










higher levels of mortality
higher levels of morbidity
(especially among children)
loss of income and assets
(impacting mostly lowincome groups)
higher prevalence of water
borne / water washed
diseases (particularly among
children)
food shortages (high prices)
and malnutrition
mortality from extreme heat
or cold, especially elderly
reduced economic
productivity
additional expenditure
increased vulnerability to
respiratory diseases
young children and elderly
most vulnerable
higher prevalence of water
borne / water washed
diseases (particularly among
children)
food shortages (high prices)
and malnutrition
loss of land and property
health problems from saline
water (children at highest
risk)
increased population
increased stress on
infrastructure and resources
increased risk of diseases
such as malaria and dengue
Source: Adapted from Wilbanks et al. (2007)
Figure [...] Climate change risks in urban areas
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Viet Nam faces particular difficulties in building resilience to mean sea level rise and storm
surges and it ranks 6th in the world regarding the proportion of population living in Low Elevation
Coastal Zones (LECZ)31. With more than 10 million urban dwellers within the LECZ Viet Nam has
among the world’s largest urban populations in this zone [what is the source of this number? I
suspect this number is too low!?]. More generally, 129 out of a total 752 of the country’s urban
centres are located at the coast, including Ho Chi Minh City, 3 cities of class I, 6 cities of class II, 15
cities of class III, 13 of class IV and 90 of class V [these classes must be explained / defined in an
endnote].
Many of Viet Nam’s cities and towns are developing onto unsuitable land, as the steadily
increasing effects of climate change are becoming evident. In HCMC, 300,000 people are living in
slums32, and it is expanding into flood prone areas (notably southwards). The average land elevation
in Can Tho City is just 1 meter above mean sea level33. Parts of downtown, for example, are
inundated every day at high tide, and measurements show particularly upward trends of high tide
water levels over the past decades (more pronounced than the upward trend of mean sea levels).34
But non-coastal cities are also affected by climate change, as there are climate change effects other
than sea level rise. An estimated 160,000 people are living outside the Red River dyke in Hanoi,
which is considered to be unofficial occupation35. Hanoi is rapidly expanding westward and
southwards into low lying areas that are vulnerable to floods.36
In most cities, water bodies have been encroached upon and open space is rapidly disappearing.
21 lakes in Hanoi (or 150 ha of water space) were lost to development during the past two
decades.37 Recreation space per resident is only 0.9 m2 in nine inner-city districts of Hanoi, and just
0.05 m2 in densely urbanized Hanoi districts such as Dong Da or Gia Lam.[data must be checked:
recreation space in inner city Hanoi is 18 times more per capita than in Gia Lam?]38 In 1980, ten spots
in Ho Chi Minh City routinely flooded; today the number is nearly 200.39 To protect these and other
cities from effects of climate change such as more intense rainfall and /or sea level rise will require
many measures, such as very considerable investments in dykes and drainage infrastructure
including water storage capacity.
The most severe climate change effects that Viet Nam’s cities face include rising temperature
and heat waves. Cities are especially vulnerable to increased temperature, and can become “urban
heat islands”, areas that could typically be 4oC warmer than surrounding vegetated areas. Central
HCMC can be up to 10oC warmer than surrounding rural areas.40 This effect is compounded by air
pollution, which reduces the release of heat at night. Green spaces and water bodies, which help
cool cities, make up a relatively small percentage of urban space in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
As the environment becomes warmer and wetter there is increased risk of infectious disease
vectors which can cause epidemics, and heat-wave related deaths. Climate change may magnify
health hazards and other environmental burdens of a city, especially in tropical cities like Viet Nam’s
wherein disease vectors are active and highly evolutionary41. Flooding in Viet Nam’s cities often leads
to pollution and the release of wastewater and raw sewerage into residential urban areas. The urban
poor, young children and elderly especially who do not have access to good health care and who live
in informally developed urban areas are particularly at risk. Climate change health impacts “are
accentuated in densely populated urban areas.”42
Drought is also an increasingly important climate change effect. Drought affects cities directly
and indirectly. For example, as witnessed in 2010, hydro electricity is jeopardised by erratic rainfall,
meaning that hydroelectric lakes are not filled to capacity whilst water must be used for other
purposes too such as agriculture and river transport, meaning water releases that may not benefit
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electricity production optimally and therefore enhancing the blackouts in cities. Transport on rivers
is negatively affected, and over time the stress will become particularly pronounced as groundwater
reservoirs are depleted and clean water supply may become problematic.
Hanoi: Reduced Precipitation Results in a Changed Environment
Every year, even at the peak of Viet Nam's dry season, when the Red River is at its lowest,
Hanoi's skilled captains manage to negotiate their flat-bottomed boats through its shallow
waters. But this year [early 2010?], with a drought gripping the entire country and water levels
at record lows, the river is eerily quiet. What is normally a bustling waterway is becoming a
winding river of sand, and farmers who depend upon the river for irrigation are watching the
expanding sandbars as nervously as the boat captains. "If there is no water in the coming days,"
says 59-year-old farmer Vu Thi La, who just put in her spring rice seedlings, "it will all die."
Across Viet Nam, high temperatures and parched rivers are setting off alarm bells as the
nation grapples with what's shaping up to be its worst drought in more than 100 years. At 0.68
metres high, the Red River is [when?] at its lowest level since records started being kept in 1902.
With virtually no rainfall since September, timber fires are burning in the north and tinder-dry
conditions threaten forests in the south.
Source: [???]
The direct effects and large scale potential risks are difficult to predict with accuracy, but at a
global level much has been agreed. Secondary impacts, from social dislocation to environmental
transformation, depend more strongly on local social economic conditions and are even more
difficult to predict. Nevertheless, the expected magnitude is huge and therefore action is needed.
3.2
Climate change, urban vulnerabilities, and migration
[this section should work out which are the most vulnerable groups and what their needs are, eg
with examples from eg CtC work and international literature. It should use the UN & Oxfam gender
cc paper which givers eg resilience indicators. In other words, migrants and migration should be just
one aspect of this section.
It also needs to be improved in conceptual terms: vulnerability is not the same as poverty, for
example, and different groups of deprived or disadvantaged people need different support to
increase their resilience, from social protection to livelihood support services, education and health
services (which also need differentiation), and so on. Generally, social differentiation needs to be
central in the different parts of the text, including by age and gender.
And it needs conclusions and recommendations for increasing resilience of different groups – in
this section or in the final section of this chapter]
Vulnerable people and living places
Poorer urban dwellers in Viet Nam often live in areas with low quality drainage and flood
protection infrastructure, whilst during floods critical services such as clean water supplies are
severely disrupted. The urban neighbourhoods that are most vulnerable to heavy rainfall include
informal residential areas along rivers and converted wetland areas. These settlements are often
unplanned, have low quality built environment (public and private), lack sufficient drainage
infrastructure whilst due their proximity to rivers and lakes they may be the first to experience
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floods, often of polluted water. However, these neighbourhoods supply cheap labour and services
and are critically important for urban development and economic growth.
[Here we need more on different vulnerable groups in urban VN, urban vulnerabilities / risks for
climatic shocks and stresses. It is not enough to only talk of migration as the rest of this section does.
Important to explain with some examples the vulnerabilities in certain cities of VN with reference
also to the table in section 3.1 (third column). This should be specific on gender and age related
vulnerabilities, in particular; migrants are discussed in next subsection]
Migration to towns and cities
The Ministry of Construction (MOC) forecasts annual increases in the urban population of 1 to
1.3 million people, due largely to rural to urban migration. It is generally believed that the urban
population is 10-15% higher than current estimates due to the number of unregistered migrants.43 In
Ho Chi Minh City, 1.8 million people living within the city boundaries are recent migrants with
temporary resident status.44 [need for brief explanation of different residential status, classes of
(temporary) registration; we also need to get a clear sense regarding the meaning of “unregistered
as in Coulthart: is that including those with temporary registration?]
While statistics suggest that urban poverty has significantly declined in the last two decades –
from approximately 25% in 1993 to around 4% in 200645 - the statistics do not fully account for
temporary residents. Urban poverty data for the major cities need to be qualified against indications
of considerable under-reporting of poverty amongst recent or transitory migrants from rural areas.
There are even suggestions that urban poverty is showing a slight increase in recent years
[reference?]. Income poverty, coupled with poor access to urban services means that many migrants
are more vulnerable than other urban citizens. Migrants congregate in some of the most vulnerable
urban areas, in order to find affordable accommodation. Although migrants may suffer poverty or
deprivation in urban areas their situation is not necessarily worse than in the sending areas,
including the quality of services that they manage to access – but costs in urban areas are high.
[we need something on special vulnerabilities of migrants, and “migrants” has to be
differentiated as not all migrants are poor and especially vulnerable. This subsection has to
demonstrate a gendered analysis.]
There are many push factors for rural to urban migration, and environmental pressures that are
enhanced by climate change appear to play an increasingly important role. Flooding, drought and
saline water intrusion may push vulnerable people to search a safer and stable life46. Especially the
risks of mean sea level rise associated with enhanced saline water intrusion are seen to be
important, affecting millions of people in Viet Nam if no appropriate measures are taken47. The
climate change-enhanced displacement pressures are especially acute in the Mekong Delta and the
coastal provinces.
Views in Viet Nam have long focused on the negative aspects of migration. The belief that
planning cannot deal with the influx of poor migrants is common and therefore that barriers to
migration are needed. There are several rules in Viet Nam which deter migrants from investing in
permanent housing [needs specifics re these “rules”, such as:] Unregistered migrants are less likely
to invest to increase their resilience due to the tentative nature of their residential status and
prohibitions on land ownership and access to urban services. Globally, there are not many examples
of cities successfully keeping migrants out of cities. Ignoring migration and forcing migrants out of
the city may be counter effective and result in social unrest.
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Rural-urban migrants are an important workforce and play a key role in for example the
construction sector and in low skill manufacturing industry. They are also important for regional and
rural economic development. Migrants to urban areas send remittances back, and they may return
(temporarily or permanently) to rural areas with new skills, networks and investment capital.
Remittances are a growing proportion of rural households’ incomes in different parts of Asia.
Remittances overtook earnings from farming in rural households’ budgets in China in 2004.48 In Viet
Nam, circular (or transitory) migrants – migrants who stay a short time in urban areas before
returning to rural areas – often accumulate investment capital as urban workers. According to
Professor Dang Anh, it is increasingly common for young women from rural areas to spend 1-2 years
in industrial zones in order “earn their marriage money”49. If rural to urban migration would be
discouraged there may thus be a negative consequences for rural households and a widening ruralurban disparity, whilst there could also be a negative effect on urban growth.
But rapid and accelerating migration is a challenge for cities. Migrants enhance the demand for
housing, transportation, environmental services, education and healthcare services, which are in
short supply. More than 50 percent of migrants in Ho Chi Minh City report that their housing
conditions are worse after migration compared to the situation before migration.50 Many migrants
are not registered or have obtained only temporary (K4) status. Authorities in Ha Long estimated for
example that 20-25% of the city’s population are migrants who are not registered.51
Governance, grass roots democracy and urban development
[Here a few paras on “participation” or grass roots democracy, citizens groups and the role of
mass organisations, and urban governance that would be inclusive of vulnerable groups (not just
migrants). This concerns the legal challenges / access to land and services questions that migrants
face, but also a large number of urban dwellers who are not (first generation) migrants are
occupants of land that is not officially theirs, or half-officially – what about the communities outside
the dyke in Hanoi for example? This subsection also has to demonstrate a gendered analysis]
[We need (in this section or in section 3.4 of this chapter) conclusions and recommendations for
increasing resilience of different social groups – especially regarding the soft side of increasing
resilience as in community based disaster risk reduction, CBDRM, which is also being practised in
urban communities]
Lack of cooperation between sector ministries has been mentioned by many experts, academics
and politicians but remains one of the big bottlenecks for more efficient urban planning and
management. The effects of climate change will only increase the pressure for better cooperation
since the growth of the country’s economy is at stake.
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3.3
Urban economies at risk
[this section should be distinctly different from 3.2. It should focus on overall economic
contribution to hinterland / region as well as country, and address especially the business / private
sector and infrastructure (which is also critical for accessing social and other a services despite
climatic stresses); and therefore urban development policies including urban planning. So in 3.3
there is no need to talk of migration other than re infra and employment needs, with possibly a
reference back to the needs for land rights / legalisation of land occupation as in 3.2. Critical is also
that this section provides ideas over costs of adaptation (-infra) and (short and long term) benefits
from short and medium term investments that avoid future costs.]
Climate change threats to economic development
Increase in intensity and frequency of climatic hazards has already been observed in cities.
However, the threats or stresses from climate change are additional to the existing challenges of
urban development and present threats to health, business, infrastructure and the environment,
with a negative impact on urban development and therefore the country’s economic development.
For example, in Hanoi the increase in flood hazards is attributed to the degraded capacity of the
storm drainage system. In Ho Chi Minh City flood hazards are amplified by land subsidence from
overuse of groundwater and the spill-over effects of construction and development on watersurface land areas in the south eastern part of the city and encroachment over the flood storage
wetland area.52 Rapid reduction of vacant land and increases in population density are exacerbated
by poor urban planning and implementation [if we call this “poor” we need a reference that backs it
up]. Particularly problematic is the combination of climate change stresses with inadequate urban
environmental infrastructure and management such as inadequate waste and wastewater disposal.
Apart from the many vulnerabilities discussed in the previous section, there are particular threats to
businesses and therefore employment, whilst cities are the country’s engines of growth.
The urbanization process in Viet Nam is a transition from a rural-based agrarian society to one
based on industrial production, trade and services that are mostly urban. But Viet Nam’s cities have
master plans that often lack a thorough long term vision and do not adequately reflect the reality of
rapid urbanization and the opportunities offered for economic growth. And the challenge has
increased as the realisation of climate change effects takes root.
Viet Nam is integrating further into the world economy especially following WTO accession and
international trade continues to increase. In this context port cities develop rapidly, and have to
balance their rapid growth while ensuring the safety of their facilities and residents. Cities along the
coast such as Ho Chi Minh City, Can Tho, Da Nang, Hai Phong, Ha Long, and Nha Trang are most
vulnerable to sea level rise. These cities will face a loss of land and inundation of coastal
neighbourhoods, industrial areas and businesses, unless protective infrastructure is scaled up, or city
expansion plans are changed drastically towards higher land. But the latter is only possible for some
cities and not an option in most of the Mekong Delta.
[here we need more on the economic role of towns and cities, and in-depth discussion is needed
of the effects on businesses and business, on employment. The threats to business and employment
include business continuity, transport needs, direct damage; also health and safety of workers, as
improvements often correlate with cleaner environmental behaviour and reduced environmental
risks from businesses and to businesses. Also relevant is the need to access social services such as
hospitals and schools, also during and immediately after critical events, as extreme climatic shocks
affect certain groups.]
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Climate change threats to urban infrastructure
The backlog in urban infrastructure development in Viet Nam has been identified as an alarm
signal: “Building the infrastructure needed to support rapid economic growth and urbanization
requires efficient use of public resources. Infrastructure is the second most important constraint to
Viet Nam’s development. Here too, the current situation is extremely worrisome.”53 This conclusion
was reached without fully considering climate change and indeed most infrastructure upgrading
projects have not considered climate change effects, including the recently designed flood levels for
the protection dyke system of Ho Chi Minh City [such strong statements require referencing,
otherwise edit or delete]. In addition, outdated building codes and standards are still in use and at
the same time inconsistently enforced. Drainage systems, pumping stations, roads, and dykes in
Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are being upgraded, but may fail to fully address pollution and flood
threats as climate change risks are increasing.
Current urban development, i.e. more built up areas and less green and water space increases
the challenge of adapting to climate change effects. This became very clear in Hanoi in October 2008
where big parts of the city flooded after two days of heavy rainfall, which caused heavy pollution in
the worst affected areas. It also affected the energy supply which is especially vulnerable to climatic
hazards and broken electricity supply lines are a major hazard during floods. In October 2008 several
electric transformers were turned off during the heavy rain, and afterwards had to be moved to a
higher location. A similar situation occurred in other cities including Istanbul, Turkey, where extreme
rainfall and inadequate urban planning caused major damage during periods of heavy rainfall in
2009. These weather extremes will in all likelihood be repeated, and possibly become more extreme
as a result of climate change.
Istanbul, Turkey: Blaming Flooding on Climate Change Instead of Poor Urban Planning
The devastating, tragic floods in Istanbul which killed at least 41 people and caused $70 million
to $80million in damage--offered yet another reminder of the danger such incidents pose to the
country. In early September, flash floods triggered by heavy rainfall partially submerged some
suburban districts of the large metropolis, damaging houses and infrastructure, stranding people in
their vehicles as the city's highways turned into rivers, and cutting off access to the airport.
"In an hour, Istanbul received 205 kilograms of rainwater per square metre. This is the strongest
rain Istanbul has experienced in 80 years," Mayor Kadir Topbaş noted in the early days of the
disaster, saying global warming was to blame. Critics, however, accused Topbaş of trying to divert
attention away from the role played by his administration and those of his predecessors, including
now Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
According to the Istanbul branch of the Environmental Engineers Chamber, the issuing of
permits for buildings close to riverbanks without creating sufficient infrastructure was a major factor
in the flood damage. The environmental engineers also blamed the city's poor system for dealing
with sewage and rainwater, which are collected together, not separately, as needs to be done to
keep pipes from overflowing.
The environmental group WWF-Turkey took something of a middle ground on the issue, blaming
both global warming and poorly planned and unregulated urbanization, saying in a statement that:
"Due to irregular and unplanned building and insufficient infrastructural investment, rain is unable to
reach the sea through its natural flowing canals and turns into flooding. Because of insufficient
greenery in cities, the rain isn't absorbed by dirt."
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One of the most contentious areas has been the dense and hard-hit settlements around the
Ayamama River, which the local Chamber of Architects lobbied back in 1997--when Erdoğan was
mayor of Istanbul--to protect as an ecological corridor and recreation area. "We prepared reports
then, but they did not listen. [We said] urbanization in the region would both destroy the
environment and put an extra burden on the already insufficient infrastructure," said Büyükkent
branch chairman Eyüp Muhçu. "We filed a lawsuit against the decision, and we won, but the
municipality allowed settlement in the region despite the court ruling." 54
Vulnerability
Population density
Hanoi
??
HCMC
7.2 million in 2009 55
Can Tho
846 pp/km2
30,000 pp/km2 in city
centre to 600pp/km2
in outer district 56
Percent poor or
slum dwellers
??
80,000 poor
household57
???
50% population
migrated to HCMC in
less than 25 years
Percent of urban
area or population
susceptible to
flooding
???
City % of national
GDP
??
70% land is prone to
natural flood
Average land
elevation 0.8-1m
above MSL.
50% of areas planned
for development lies
at less than MSL
More vulnerable to
temperature and
precipitation changes
than to sea level rise
(1)
Health care facilities,
water, transportation,
tourism, recreation
(1)
Figure [...] Climate change vulnerabilities58 [this table should focus on the title of the
subsection: economics, including infra and business activities of the main cities of Viet Nam. This
table is meaningless with so many empty boxes – so either fill up with additional info sources or
delete. If it stays the contents needs to be used / referred to in the text]
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As a result of saline water intrusion some cities’ water supply intakes and water treatment
facilities must be re-located further upstream (especially in the Mekong Delta).59 The depletion of
groundwater in and near cities is also significantly increasing their vulnerability to climate change
effects. In Ho Chi Minh City, ground water exploitation exceeds 600,000 m3/day compared with only
200,000m3/day of water replenished. This imbalance has resulted in lowering of groundwater levels,
which, together with rapid construction development can also lead to the geological deformation.
Ho Chi Minh City is subsiding at a speed of 6 mm per year60. Furthermore, groundwater in Hanoi and
Ho Chi Minh is heavily polluted. Pollutants include nitrogen compounds, biological and organic
matter, and also toxic elements, including naturally occurring arsenic (mostly in the red River
delta).61 Guaranteeing water supply will thus require major infrastructure investments, in the near
and longer term future.
Cities with degraded or overwhelmed drainage and water storage system such as Hanoi and Ho
Chi Minh City, will be severely affected by increasingly heavy rainfall and risks of flooding. The
disappearance of open spaces and the filling in of lakes in urban areas has increased the likelihood of
heavy rainfall causing longer periods of flooding. This also relates to pollution, as untreated
wastewater will be all over a flooded city. In Hanoi, less than ten percent of wastewater is treated
and 500,000 m3 of wastewater is discharged daily.62 Nationally, less than one third of the country’s
110 industrial zones have wastewater treatment facilities. Untreated sewerage is dumped into
waterways. In urban areas nationwide the length of sewers per capita is between 1.2 and 1.4 m, as
compared to 6 to 8 m per capita for cities in other countries of the region.63 Floods and inundation
thus cause pollution and threaten human health, and climate change increases these risks. Again,
the demands on good planning, additional investment of climate proofing of infrastructure
investments is evident.
Flooding and wastewater pollution in Hanoi: an overburdened drainage [sewerage?]
system threatens the environment and human health
Hanoi’s sewerage system has not been strategically built, but rather has been based mainly
on the natural rivers, lakes, ponds, and channels and sewage treatment is minimal. The increase
in household sewage, together with the development of industries has surpassed the city’s
capacity for sewage treatment, and exacerbated the city’s water pollution. [this is about
domestic wastewater and general city wastewater, not from industrial zones: how much of that
is treated, if any, and is that basic wastewater treatment or modern? I have never seen a
domestic wastewater treatment facility in / near Hanoi: where are they? Also critical is that
according to what I know there is virtually no separation in Hanoi or elsewhere in Viet Nam of
rainstorm drainage systems and sewerage systems, meaning that to treat sewage means that
the treatment plants would also have to receive rainfall from the streets and roofs. The backlog
in systems investment is thus enormous, whilst as far as I know still now the newly built areas
still have no separate rainstorm drainage and sewerage systems. If I am ruight this is a key point
re infrastructure investment needs as rainstorm drainage systems must cope with heavier floods
and pollution during floods with wastewater must be prevented]
Most rivers, lakes, and ponds in Hanoi are severely contaminated. It is estimated that the
level of water pollution will double by 2020 if no effective solutions are found. To Lich River –
the main sewer for old Hanoi – receives 150,000m3 of sewage/day. Kim Nguu River receives
120,000 m3 of sewage/day. Besides providing drainage, the rivers and channels in Hanoi have
also receive part of the waste [solid waste? Wastewater? Other drainage?] generated by the
people, industries and handicraft villages.
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[Here there needs to be a further explanation re effects of climate change such as floods and
also droughts on transport and electricity supply]
Northern Viet Nam: Hydropower Dams and Drought Threaten Agriculture
Viet Nam is still building hydropower dams. The government recently [mid 2010? when?]
released water existing dams to help farmers in the Red River Delta with spring planting. Now
[when?] with reservoir levels in the north at critical lows, the state-owned electricity company says it
can't let go of much more; power demand is expected to break records as temperatures soar. High
temperatures and evaporation are the enemy.
The crisis has been a "wakeup call" for Viet Nam, says Ian Wilderspin, senior technical adviser for
disaster risk management at the U.N. Development Program in Hanoi. The drought was predicted,
he says, referring to last year's projections that El Niño would bring an unusually warm and dry
winter. Yet Viet Nam traditionally prepares for floods and typhoons, which are more dramatic and
devastating when they hit. "Drought is a slow, silent disaster, which in the long run will have a more
profound impact on peoples' livelihoods," he says. 64
Urban traffic is already a serious concern and will be further affected by the direct and indirect
pressures effects of climate change.[more ...]
Costs of climate change effects and benefits from early investment in adaptation
[This needs to be followed by an economic argument over avoiding costs (damages, reduced
business / livelihood activities) that must be a core factor in agreeing investment decisions that
mitigate those costs, i.e. investment in adaptation. References at the international level include the
Stern report, and the “mini stern” by ADB for SE Asia as well as the WB costs of adaptation report
(case study VN). At the national / city level the critical point is that somehow authorities need to
decide which “climate proofing” additional costs is most justified in the short term, and which
investments can wait. In addition many costs can be avoided by simple changes in urban planning,
meaning “expand here instead of there” decisions]
Urban planning
The Urban Planning Law (enacted January 2010) is not specific on climate change challenges. The
present overall policy framework seems to guide cities in Viet Nam in the opposite direction. There is
a need to reform and strengthen Viet Nam’s Urban Policy and the planning system and practices of
Viet Nam. Cities in Viet Nam are developing in an informal manner and not always guided
strategically in order to achieve optimal patterns.
The Government of Viet Nam has been involved in a number of pilot projects for the preparation
of urban development strategies in selected cities utilizing the ‘City Development Strategy’ (CDS)
methodology, a tried and tested comprehensive planning approach that could take into
consideration climate change adaptation and prepare for greener low carbon cities. However a clear
link need to be made with the existing legal systems of national and sectoral.
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The National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change asks all sectors and provinces
including cities to formulate action plans to respond to climate change. However, without the
integration of these actions into strategic construction and land use plans means their impact is
likely to be limited.
Planned adaptation implies policy decisions and measures at the urban-scale that facilitates
the reduction of the adverse impacts of climate change. Each city faces its own particular range
of risks and vulnerabilities and so needs to develop a city-specific understanding of this. These
are needed now for all urban centres so that growing cities and urban centres progressively
build into their infrastructure and wider development resilience to climate change impacts.
However, the present attitude among government and donors is one of fire fighting or crisis
management where sector ministries and donors are supporting some individual cities, for example
with vulnerability assessments and recommendations for infrastructural or geographical
improvements. Although this is contributing to more climate resilient cities it does not tackle the
root of the problem, which is ineffective, and inefficient city planning and management [but the text
does not provide arguments or references that explain what is wrong, why is it inefficient – some is
in chapter 5, but a forward reference is not enough].
3.4
Conclusions and recommendations re urban adaptation
[this section should refer back to / build on the analysis provided in 3.1-3.3, and provide the
recommendations on those subjects (especially the subjects of 3.2 and 3.3), which is not currently
the case as several recommendations seem to fall from the sky. Problem analysis on planning for
example should not be here but in 2.3 and recommendations could go here (I did some cut and
paste and edited parts, but very little of substance is there so far]
Climate change effects will continue to become more pronounced, also if greenhouse gas
mitigation is successful at the global level. The climatic extremes expected from climate change as
well as the more gradual pressures of climate change will affect cities throughout Viet Nam, with the
most severe impacts in coastal cities and the cities of the Mekong Delta. But timely and well
prioritised action can have multiple benefits, as summarised in the following table.
Table [...] Potential benefits and co-benefits of adaptation
Adaptation Investments
Improve drainage infrastructure
Conserve open spaces and water
bodies
Halt unplanned urban
development
Maintenance of local
infrastructure
Dikes and mean sea level rise
resilience enhancement
Rainwater and sewerage
infrastructure
Adaptation Measure
Improved planning for
Objective
To reduce losses from
flooding
Keep absorption capacity
To improve design and
drainage infrastructure
To reduce degradation and
clogging
To reduce flooding caused
by sea; reduce salinization
To reduce health risks
caused by flooding
Objective
To reduce overlap and gaps
Benefits and co-benefits
Reduced the risk on water
borne diseases
Recreational areas;
improved air flow;
More liveable urban areas
Cost savings
Rise in property prices
Improved water quality and
health
Benefits and co-benefits
A step towards planning
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comprehensive climate proofing
Improved coordination among
stakeholders
Harmonization of plans with the
land use plan
Improve data sharing and spatial
analysis (GIS)
in planning
To improve analysis and
maximize funds
Ensure strategic land
planning is the basis for
urban planning
To increase data-driven
decision making; to give
planners an important tool
reform
Potential mobilization of
funds
Improved natural resource
management in urban areas
Step towards digitization
and data standardization
The following adaptation priority areas have been identified for urban areas in Viet Nam.
[the above table and text below should match – now several things in the table are not discussed
in the text]
Develop urban adaptation policy and coordination
Climate change adaptation must take place at all levels: from strategic national investments in
infrastructure, to provincial level land use planning, town and city level enforcement of laws, district
and ward risk and vulnerability assessments, and support to neighbourhoods and households to
protect and enhance assets that are resilient to climate change.
Viet Nam’s main policy challenge in the near future in terms of urban development is how to
create efficient and sustainable, climate change resilient and economically viable cities. While cities
have to make their individual choices, the central Government should provide an overall policy
framework that facilitates climate change resilience and guides urban development through the
century. Urban development policy should set clear and realistic goals and take into account the
current informal character of urbanization and reflect that climate change will require more
innovative solutions. This general policy framework should be linked to or be part of a national
climate change strategy that would also encompass a national adaptation plan (NAP) as per
agreement under the UNFCCC65.
MONRE’s facilitating role on climate change related issues is important as it leads on the
National Target Programme to respond to Climate Change.66 MOC, MPI and MONRE should closely
work together combating climate change adaptation at city level. MOC has a core role in urban
development and are in charge of master planning (construction), MPI are leading on the
formulation of the national SEDP and MONRE also has responsibilities in land use planning, which is
inefficient in many towns and cities. To address the combined pressures of climate change and wider
urbanization challenges in cities, cooperation in urban planning and management should be strongly
improved.
Strengthen urban governance for climate resilience
Urban governance should be strengthened for cities and their citizens to become more climate
resilient. The following is recommended:
 Adopt a decentralized approach that empowers towns and cities is recommended because
each city is affected by climate change in a different manner. Solutions for those cities will
also differ and therefore it is necessary to adapt plans and solutions to the local
circumstances.
 A strategic and flexible urban development plan should be prepared for each city and town,
that indicates future long and midterm development directions, clear actions and
responsibilities for all actors at Provincial, District and Ward level.
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




While many actions can be taken to minimize the effects and damage on a city wide scale,
neighbourhoods have to be prepared to combat these effects. It is therefore suggested to
develop local assessment plans and local action plans to identify vulnerable areas in a city
and make neighborhoods more resilient.
Decentralize urban governance including citizen consultations to lower levels of government
(additional powers and resources) [this has to be based arguments in section 3.3. Is this
recommendation really the best for responding to climate change effects / stresses? A
stronger and enforceable city-wide policy may be better, as several climate change threats
and solutions are not only for neighbourhoods and districts but must be addressed city
wide].
Make use of local resource and initiatives [this is a truism]
Be more flexible, participatory, integrated and divert from the traditional master planning
with a construction focus [divert to where, to do what?]
Improve coordination [of what, who and why? There is no relevant problem analysis in 3.2
or 3.3]
[With reference back to e.g. section 3.2 on governance there need to be recommendations on
citizen’s participation, consultation; the need for transparency in governance especially urban
planning and investment, land registration etc.]
Strengthen urban planning
Over the next decades a significant number of urban development projects will be required in
Viet Nam. These new projects will shape the spatial patterns of urban agglomerations for many
decades. The rapid process of urbanization is accompanied by dramatic land use changes in the
surrounding areas in most cities in Viet Nam, which poses many demands even without climate
changes shocks and stresses. The combination demands an integrated planning framework, climate
change adaptation should be integrated with development planning, and there is a need to integrate
spatial, social, and economic planning.
The authorities, citizens and the private sector must jointly consider how the spatial
development direction in general and buildings and infrastructure in highly vulnerable regions can
be adapted to cope with the climate change effects. Planners and developers must consider
different spatial levels of the urban development process, and ensure that the new urban
development and communities are constructed sustainably and remain safe into the long term
future.
Urban planners need tools – and experience using those tools in the rapidly growing, market
driven urban economies. Tools such as management information systems, geographic information
systems (GIS), and enforceable environmental impact assessments, could significantly improve a
city’s capability to respond to climate change.
There are many examples of industrial parks, residential areas or new city centres that are
planned and/ or constructed in the lowest part of the city making cities extremely vulnerable. This is
unnecessary, and without significant extra cost but with efficient urban (land use) planning many
potential economic losses can be avoided, for example by altering the spatial development
directions of cities and towns away from the low/wet lands.
Enable migrants’ livelihoods and reduce their vulnerabilities
Migration must be taken into consideration in adaptation planning. While policies to deter
migration might not change immediately, it is also unlikely to be very effective and the fact of
migration needs to be recognized, especially as the environmental pressures in certain rural areas
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are increasing the “push factors”. Cities must be capable of receiving migrants and enabling them to
live productive and healthy lives, invest and access all services, which will be of benefit to them as
well as the community and economy. Planners need to assist migrant communities to increase their
resilience, for example by assessing the spatial distribution of vulnerable migrant groups, and
devising appropriate support measures and investments.
Part of the current migration policy is driven by the desire to manage the size of Ho Chi Minh
and Hanoi and maintain a equally balanced growth policy.67 This relies on the development of
secondary cities in a “system of cities.” The promotion of secondary cities as strong economic
centres presents an opportunity to encourage migration. Incentives for migrants to move to these
cities should be provided – e.g. simplified registration, affordable housing, vocational training, etc. –
which would create a workforce to fuel their growth.
Climate proofing of infrastructure
According to the MPI, in order to become an “industrialized-modernized country” by 2020, the
country’s infrastructure requires a massive capital investment from all sources including government
budget and bonds, ODA and the private sector. Current annual infrastructure investment makes up
9-10% of the GDP. It is estimated that infrastructure investment over the next 10 years will cost 11%
of GDP each year. Only about half could be met from the government’s budget.68 The transport
infrastructure alone, according to the BIDV, needs nearly USD 7.5 bln annually, while all sources of
capital (government, budget/ bonds and ODA) can provide only USD 2-3 bln69. If the budget
allocation for urban water supply and sanitation remains at the level of the last 10 years, this source
will be able to finance only about 4% of urban needs70.
Viet Nam has an opportunity for climate proofing this infrastructure and and also housing, which
would increase resilience to climate change effects and help move towards efficient, resilient and
healthier cities. Climate proofing will mean changes in designs and additional costs, but the
additional costs may be considerably smaller that reconstruction costs or damages incurred as a
result of failure in climate proofing.
[There is a need for more specific recommendations on infrastructure for climate change
adapation, which also includes special infrastructure. Not just proofing of what would be there
anyway. Use e.g. ADB analysis for HCMC in 3.3 and lead to recommendations here]
Strengthen economic analysis and investment decisions
Based on the best available information, the benefit from a range of adaptation investments is
projected to outweigh the costs of implementing adaptation measures in the long term.71
At the moment, nearly 40% of capital for infrastructure investment comes from ODA, while only
15% comes from the private sector72. One reason [for what exactly?] is low capacity of the localities
to borrow for development.
[Referring back to the analysis in 3.3 there should be number of recommendations here
regarding optimal timing, phasing of certain (massive) infrastructure investments and proofing of
“regular” infrastructure]
[parked (delete?): The priority is to enhance climate change resilience by building adaptive
capacity and taking technical and non-technical adaptation measures in climate-sensitive sectors. A
country’s adaptive capacity depends on its level of development, but more effort in raising public
awareness, more research to fill knowledge gaps, better coordination across sectors and levels of
government, and more financial resources will enhance adaptive capacity. ]
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4.Low carbon urban development needs and
opportunities
[This chapter needs considerable work. Examples are needed, domestic and especially
international [there is an annex with cases on adaptation, not on GHG emissions mitigation). The
relevance of mitigation for citizens groups, and for poor people should be addressed; activism by say
students on awareness raising is critical (in VN); and potential benefits for middle classes from
certain policies on eg energy efficiency and feed-in tariffs, meaning for example that household or
office scale solar might pay itself back as high electricity use is already expensive in VN (progressive
fees)]
4.1
Urbanization and economic growth
Cities are growth engines
Cities are centres of investment and innovation, and for any successful economy they are
engines of growth. As Figure [...] illustrates, urbanization and GDP growth are strongly correlated
across Asia.
10
y = 0.0563x + 4.7391
R2 = 0.7685
South Korea
log real GDP per capita
9
Malaysia
8
Thailand
China
7
Philippines
Indonesia
6
5
4
0
20
40
60
urbanization (%)
80
100
Figure [2] Log real GDP per capita and urbanization in 1960, 1980, and 2000
[source and explanation of “log” and “real GDP”, “y” and “R2”]
Viet Nam is one of the fastest urbanizing countries in the region. According to the preliminary
result of the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the current population is approximately 86
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million (2010), with an urban population of 25.4 million (nearly 30% of the total population). The
urban population could reach over 50 million by 2025.73
Viet Nam’s cities are centres of investment and innovation and they are important engines of
growth. Most investments are in industries and services in urban locations. Cities contribute over
70% of total GDP of Viet Nam. The annual GDP growth rate in urban centres is 12.6%, significantly
outpacing the national growth rate. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City could be the top two cities with the
world’s highest average real GDP growth between 2008-2025.74
In particular international harbours are hubs for economic, social and cultural development,
knowledge, education, innovation and change. Viet Nam has 114 harbours, but most are local and
small. This total includes three international seaports –Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, and Danang,
which are central to population concentrations and economic growth corridors. These corridors have
reasonable to good connections to wider areas (hinterland), and they are linked to each other by
various transport routes. The three corridors currently account for nearly 38% of the population and
60% of national GDP.75
Viet Nam’s urban centres support the rural economy. Cities and towns provide economic
opportunities for the rural population in the form of trade, employment and services. However, Viet
Nam’s poorest provinces generally lack an accessible, large and dynamic urban area to provide
economic and social opportunities and services. Nevertheless, all cities and (provincial and district)
towns have been growing at high rates during the last 20 years, also as a result of infrastructure
investments, meaning that opportunities are increasing as transport and services are improving.
Sustaining urban growth
But there are major challenges. The Harvard Kennedy School’s “Choosing Success” (2008)
summarizes the differences between East Asian and South East Asian cities: “While East Asian cities
are engines of economic growth and innovation, Southeast Asian cities are congested, polluted,
over-priced, and often underwater.”76 The effects of climate change can only further destabilize
these cities. The question is whether Viet Nam will choose the East Asian or the South East Asian
path of urban development, especially now that the country has reached middle income status. 77
How well cities are managed and governed has major implications for economic success and
social development, including poverty reduction. This also has implications for the environment in
and around cities. Well governed cities can combine prosperity with high quality living environments
whereas poorly governed cities have large environmental health burdens that affect large sections of
their population, are ill equipped to handle environmental changes and often export serious
environmental problems to their surrounding areas. Choosing Success highlighted the importance of
stable and liveable cities:
“Poorly planned urbanization is a potential source of social and political instability as the
recent experiences of Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia make clear. People need decent
housing, reasonably clean and liveable surroundings, and quality health and education services
for their families. Proactive policies and efficient and timely public investments are necessary to
avoid overcrowding and unhealthy urbanization, which can become a constraint on the growth
process.”78
[Add something from the Harvard report or elsewhere on sustaining economic growth from
innovation, R&D, high value added, especially as is becoming a MIC]
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4.2
Urban greenhouse gas emissions
Low carbon urban development potential
The international community has made significant progress in late 2010 regarding further
implementation of the UNFCCC, meaning for example that developing countries that develop low
emissions development strategies (LEDSs) and nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)
can expect significant technological and financial assistance, NAMAs are expected to be programmes
that are possibly sectoral (e.g. the steel industry) and geographic (e.g. a city), or both (e.g. a city’s
transport system). Critical is that a country, subsector or city demonstrates that with certain
improvements in capacities, policy reform and also investments emissions will reduce against a
baseline or business as usual. This presents very important potential for low carbon development in
Viet Nam’s towns and cities.
Fuel Cell Buses in China’s Cities: Stimulating an Industry with Growth Potential79
The demand for buses in China is expected to grow at an average rate of 5 percent per year
between 2000 and 2030, which would result in a Chinese bus population of about 72 million in 2030.
The demand for new buses (counting replacement and new markets) in 2030 under this scenario
would be some 108,000 buses per year. This creates a sizeable potential market for Fuel Cell Buses
(FCBs).
Recognizing the potential of this market, the Global Environment Facility and UNDP initiate a
$11.6 million project to match $23 million in co-financing. While the first stage of this project
focused on technology transfer and adaptation, the second stage of the project is intended to
support FCB commercial viability and replicability, and will focus on FCB hybrid technology.
Hybrid FCBs will introduce lower costs, as engine power requirements for bus operation will be
lower, and improved performance through reduced fuel consumption. The results of the pilot will be
used to promote and replicate FCBs as a commercially viable transportation alternative for cities
sharing similar environmental characteristics and conditions.
In complement to the GEF project, Beijing had at least 15 FCBs in demonstration for the 2008
Olympic Games. By 2010, the planned production volume of FCBs is 30 per year.
[put source here]
Low carbon urban development will also require significant domestic financial and human
resources, especially from the business sector as well as households. This cannot be achieved with
the global environment as primary argument, as Viet Nam is not responsible for the high levels of
GHGs already accumulated in the global atmosphere, and it still is a low per capita emitter80. But
even where GHG emissions reduction is not supported internationally there are many potential cobenefits from mitigation measures that could well be enough reason for businesses, local authorities
and households to take measures, if the policy environment is optimal. Co-benefits can be economic
/ financial, environmental and social. Some of the potential is summarised in the table below.
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[critical is that the abatement curve and accompanying text in the Second Communication is
checked and some is presented in the table (also so that it becomes more VN specific), and it should
be discussed in the text: see
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=VNM/COM/2%20E
#beg ]
Table [...]: Co-benefits of GHG emissions mitigation
Mitigation Investments
Urban energy efficiency (e.g.
efficient lighting)
Objective
To conserve energy to
reduce emissions
Clean public transport
To reduce transport
emissions
Improve landfills
To reduce methane
emissions
Increase greenery
To cool the city and reduce
energy demands
To conserve energy
Reduce water leakage
Mitigation Measure
Improve traffic flow
(e.g. coordinate lights, better
planning of intersections)
Stimulate green building
development
Objective
Reduce traffic to reduce
transport emissions
Anti-congestion policies (e.g.
tax/tolls)
To Reduce transport
emissions
To Reduce organic waste
and thereby waste
emissions
Waste management system
To conserve energy in
urban buildings
Co-benefits
Reduce costs; reduce
national energy demands;
national energy security
Reduced traffic; improve
access for the elderly and
poor; cleaner air
Improved sanitary
conditions around the
landfills
Recreational and Green
Spaces
Cost savings; water
conservation
Co-benefits
Reduced traffic; cleaner air
Reduce costs; reduce
national energy demands;
create market for clean
tech
Reduced traffic; cleaner air
Less waste; recycling and
organic fertilizers
[The text in the following sections of this chapter should elaborate on the key issues in the table,
and demonstrate throughout the co-benefits to alternatives of BAU]
Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
[Must explain that fossil fuels and therefore GHG emissions are at the core of electricity
production and energy use, but not the only part of the energy mix (hydroelectricity critical for many
cities, and other). Therefore energy is critical for consideration of GHG emissions mitigation in urban
areas in particular (in rural areas emissions are especially from deforestation, wetland rice
cultivation, and livestock).
Important is that at the national level the MDG7 indicator GHG in CO2Equivalent emissions /
unit GDP in PPP is discussed here, and the trend therein, showing that Viet Nam is actually becoming
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less efficient, not more per unit GDP. Data are probably from the Second Communication in
combination with Viet Nam HDR or other re GDP (in PPP, purchasing power parity)
This section as regards energy should systematically treat electricity use in buildings,
manufacturing industry and by households, fossil fuel use in industry, fuel use in transport, and
possibly other – including cooking fuel that in poor sections of VNse society includes beehive coal
that is polluting indoor and in the streets but cheap against the alternative of cooking gas. He
current treatment is somewhat muddled and incomplete]
While Viet Nam’s current carbon dioxide emissions per capita amount to 1.2 tonnes per
year, far less than the global average of 4.5 tonnes per year81 [these VN data are incorrect or at
least outdated and no reference is supplied. Must use Second Communication, and possibly
UNDP’s HDR of 2007 for comparisons with other countries; the global average is I believe also
higher than quoted here].
Energy consumption accounts for a large percentage of GHG emissions in Viet Nam [take a figure
from the Second Communication]. It is rising quickly as industries increase and incomes rise (see
table [...]). Viet Nam’s cities, businesses and residents consume a large part of national electricity
and other energy. For example, 50% of commercial electricity is consumed by households, of which
85%82 by urban citizens (World Bank Energy Data [need proper reference, in ref list and endnote]).
National energy consumption [in another part of the text the same sentence said “household
energy consumption” – what is it?] tripled between 1990 and 200083 [these are old data; for the
purpose of national numbers see the GHG factsheet of UN-VN and the Second Communication –
which is about energy and more] and is currently increasing at a rate of 10%-14% per annum. In the
next forty years Viet Nam plans to add 74 power plants, including 48 hydroelectric, 17 coal-fired, 5
gas-fired, 2 nuclear, and 2 renewable power plants [what is this?]. Coal-fired power plants are
expected to eventually account for 25% total electricity production [From where are these
numbers?].
Widespread energy inefficiency occurs in industries84 [that is quite an outdated reference, from
2003] and households, largely due to the use of aging equipment. A promotion of energy efficient
building design and pilot examples, such as the work of the Energy Conservation Centre in Ho Chi
Minh City (see box), could prepare the groundwork for energy efficient municipal policy. Effective
urban planning must also contribute to energy efficiency and GHG mitigation.
ECC: Promoting Energy Conservation in Ho Chi Minh
CityThe Energy Conservation Centre (ECC) of Ho Chi Minh City, under the Department of
Sciences and Technologies, provides services on energy efficiency (auditing) and new energy
development. Additionally the EEC runs programmers on household energy conservation.
Every year, Ho Chi Minh City households spend VND5.2 trillion (= USD 275m) on electricity.
Energy growth in Ho Chi Minh City averages 10-12% per year. Using audits and capacity building, ECC
strives to raise awareness about energy conservation in the city.85 ECC has also produced a
handbook on household energy conservation with tips for reducing energy consumption.
Another method to save energy in Ho Chi Minh City is using solar energy instead of electricity
[this is not saving energy, but switching to a different energy source: it is critical that energy
efficiency and conservation are not confused with renewable energy]. Ho Chi Minh City authorities
are providing every household with VND1 million to adopt solar energy [really? Is this happening?
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Where is the official policy document? Is this solar water heaters? PV? If the latter this is crazy
without having agreed feed-in tariff and mechanisms at the national level – a huge waste of public
funds. Also, VND1m is not enough for really getting many people to adopt PV even if feed in tariff
would already be agreed and be appropriately high ....].86
Central Ho Chi Minh City is as high as 10 degrees [?!verify?! min/max/average/day/nigh/
reference points??] warmer than the surrounding area due to the “heat island effect” of major built
up areas / cities. This increases the demand for energy for airconditioning.87
Transport accounts for a large and growing share of GHG emissions, and most of that happens in
the urban corridors. In 2009, 91.9% of CO2 emissions in the Transport Sector came from vehicles on
the road [? Any emissions from vehicles not on the road, like in open mines or tractors on fields/ do
they separate agricultural vehicles? Non-vehicles, but transport ie diesel trains?].88 Of the total CO2
release in the transport sector, 57% is from diesel fuels and 38% is from gasoline [which other fossil
fuel is used in Transport? Kerosine for planes?].89 Car ownership is increasing rapidly: there are now
one car/truck in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh for every urban 20 residents. In addition, residential
patterns are changing and commute times are increasing.
Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have very low road density, for example with Hanoi 1.9% of total
land area for transport, compared with 18.8% in Tokyo90. Hanoi’s roads have already reached a
saturation point.91 Two decades ago public transport in Viet Nam served a small fraction of urban
residents. New investments have seen bus use in for example Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City rise
dramatically. Metro lines are also being planned in these two cities. As traffic increases, efficient
public transport will be essential to reduce traffic congestion and become attractive to urban
residents. There is a clear opportunities for public transport to also be clean, “low carbon”
compared to the alternative of diesel buses, taxis or private transport.
4.3
Developing low carbon, clean cities
Urban planning and GHG emissions mitigation
[There is need for explaining with examples what planners could and should do, plan for making
a VNse city low carbon at least costs and maximum co-benefits as summarised in the table at the
beginning of the chapter. What approach to transport design is needed, to links between
neighbourhoods and employment centres; what needs to happen to city expansion with living areas
and industrial zones as well as environmental services such as wastewater collection and treatment;
what must happen in construction / building codes for energy efficiency; etc. This also needs to
consider participation in planning processes, consultation of businesses and citizens / civil society
Critical in this section is to discuss NAMAs, as introduced in the policy chapter 2, but here in
more detail. NAMAs need to explain to the national and international community which concrete
measures will have GHG emissions benefits and how much, and are in most cases expected to have
several other benefits, especially but not only medium term economic benefits]
Climate change responses should encourage planners to create “urban solutions” that are
supportive of greater resilience to climate change and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, whilst
also achieving economic development success, improved social environments and access to social
services, and clean, low carbon production and consumption trends. These many objectives are
difficult to achieve as climate change adaptation and GHG emissions mean extra costs and efforts.
Some changes can be made now with additional costs in the short term but with significantly
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reduced future costs and possibly various gains in the medium and long term. Stepped-up
international cooperation (finance, technology) can help achieve multiple benefits, and sometimes
all those objectives can be met simply by doing things differently with only domestic resources and
local involvement.
Effective urban planning is key to achieving energy efficient cities, low transport emissions and
reduced GHG emissions per unit GDP (or: decarbonising the economy) in Viet Nam’s cities. This will
have immediate effects on air pollution, which exceeds acceptable levels in the largest Vietnamese
cities. The main pollutant is caused by traffic is particle matter (PM10), which is usually 1-5 times
higher than national standards in urban areas.92 Exhaust fumes in Ho Chi Minh City are up to 5 times
the maximum national level. There are between 16,000 and 20,000 people suffering from diseases
related to outdoor air pollution each year in Viet Nam.93 This pollution is not the primary cause of
global warming (in fact some of it causes cooling), but is primarily the result of fossil fuel use, which
also produces the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2). In other words, low carbon transport
and renewable energy use will serve to protect local health and limit global warming.
Energy Efficient Lighting Reduces GHG Emissions
Creative planning can reduce both costs and energy consumption. The Viet Nam Energy Efficient
Public Lighting Project (VEEPL), funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through UNDP and
co-funded by the Vietnamese government for $15 million USD, aims to introduce energy efficient
public lighting on streets, parks, and schools.
Before the project began in 2000, “85% of street lighting in Viet Nam is provided by obsolete
technology – either mercury or incandescent lamps) and installed without benefit of proper planning
or engineering analysis.” Between 2010-2013, the project estimates that annual C02 emissions
reductions will be 99,000 tons.94 [it would be appropriate to consult UNDP or VAST documentation
on this project, instead of referring to such external literature only, if only to cross check such data]
The project also aims to stimulate a local industry in energy efficient lighting products.
[source(s) here]
Fiscal measures and international finance for low carbon urban development
[Discus here fiscal measures to encourage innovation (R&D) and investment, meaning local fee /
tax structure, subsidies, incentives such as access to certain industrial areas, especially to stimulate
private sector investment in green and clean tec. Also discuss regulation, not only the market based
instruments.
Also important is that electricity providers have to agree a reasonable or even attractive feed-in
tariff – this is national policy – but one enacted municipalities have many opportunities to encourage
solar energy in cities at small and medium scales]
The use of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is growing in Viet Nam, which is currently
the 8th developing country in terms of number of CDM projects hosted. Many CDM projects are in
the pipeline and so growth is expected to continue. However, there is still no agreement on the
“second commitment period” of parties of the Kyoto Protocol – which would provide a basis for
further growth in opportunities for offsets of GHG emissions reduction commitments by developed
countries through CDM projects in developing countries95.
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CDM projects primarily aim to make technological investments for reduced GHG emissions
financially attractive that would not be economically feasible in a business as usual scenario without
carbon credits and the related extra income stream. CDM projects thus have technology-transfer
benefits for Vietnamese entrepreneurs, and provide a financial bonus. Most CDM projects are in the
energy sector and with businesses (private as well as state owned, including utilities). Cities can
benefit from any industry within their bounds increasing their energy efficiency, switching to cleaner
energy. Most CDM projects do not only reduce GHG emissions (against BAU) but also have cobenefits, including reduced local pollution and improved working conditions. For example in tapioca
processing plants in the Central Highlands of Viet Nam smell reduces from waste water tanks as they
are capped and coal as fuel in dryers is replaced by the methane gas captured from wastewater
tanks, which eliminates coal dust and reduces the heavy work burden of shovelling coal into burners.
Particularly attractive CDM applications for cities include reducing methane emissions from solid
waste landfills, and possibly capturing it to produce electricity.
[Add here some text / analysis other international climate finance, public and also private
investors / developers – and what has so far inhibited the latter to upscale for example “green FDI”?]
4.4
Recommendations: mitigation of urban GHG emissions
[in this section summarise recommendations from three previous sections; all conclusions and
recommendations must be based on information and arguments provided there so whatever is
newly presented here must be discussed there first, in an analytical manner; and recommendations
must become more concrete than what has been done so far (even though I have started to edit the
original text]
A well-planned mitigation framework will not constrain economic development. International
financial support for mitigation will likely increase significantly in the coming decades. There are
opportunities to slow the rise of GHG emissions from the transport and energy sectors, and also in
energy efficiency of buildings and waste management. Mitigation actions can especially be
opportunities for wider development by making strategic use of international mitigation finance and
mechanisms such as the CDM, and through policy measures to stimulate private sector investment.
Urban planners must work side by side with energy and emissions experts to identify
opportunities for GHG reductions. It is necessary to change the approach of urban planners to
include the concept that mitigation of GHG emissions can provide opportunities for making cities
clean and efficient, and not that climate change action is merely a burden.
The following would help achieve co-benefits from mitigation action.
[Here recommend the need for a national cc strategy of which a (national) low carbon
development strategy (LCDS) is a core part – the argument for its need / opportunity from Cancun is
/ must be explained earlier]
[Recommend a city wide strategic /development plans that encompass overall priorities for low
carbon development, in addition to the (draft) action plans to respond to climate change under the
NTP-RCC, based on additional research / assessment of potential and needs. This could be identical
to a city NAMA, or encompass different NAMAs] NAMAs should identify opportunities for energy
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efficiency and conservation, renewable energy generation, and other urban forms of GHG emissions
mitigation.
[Recommend ways to access different international funding opportunities for mitigation, mostly
based on NAMAs that will be submitted to an international register for accessing technology and
finance – what does it take to develop fundable NAMAs, that leverage finance from the private
sector?]
[present from here, systematically, the recommendations for GHG emissions mitigation in
subsectors of cities – household energy use and potential generation of renewable energy (solar);
energy use and efficiency from (office) building; energy use in and emissions from manufacturing
industry; energy use and emissions from transport; and emissions from waste and potential
generation of bio-energy from waste. ]
[There are different means to achieve improvements and move towards a low carbon city.
 We should make recommendations on fiscal policies including various city wide
regulations, fees, subsidies. There are also some policy implication of all this at the
national level.
 The implications of all this for what city planners and architects need to do is also critical
and so far very “thin” below.
 Furthermore, we need recommendations that suggests that there are co-benefits
possible for the poorer groups and not just the middle classes; and gender analysis is
important too, as new technology that is introduced in gender blind or gender neutral
manners tends to work against the objective of increasing gender equality – but what
does it take to achieve that? What sort opf participation, what kind of research is
needed?
 Another means is awareness raising: how and what do we recommend that cities go
about that?
 In addition, as also the Amsterdam example suggest, it is critical that partnerships with
all stakeholders are created, that there is a good degree of participation and
consultation].]
Amsterdam’s Climate Office and CO2 Reduction Plan96
The municipality of Amsterdam has set an ambitious target of reducing CO2 emissions by 40% by
2025 (compared to 1990). The city’s action plan states “we want to accomplish more than is
required by law and want to take advantage of opportunities.”
To manage the process, the municipality has established the Amsterdam Climate Office and
launched a framework of cooperation (called “New Amsterdam Climate”) with businesses,
institutions, and citizen groups. The New Amsterdam Climate is a platform to:
-Find partners for cooperation;
-Inspire and motivate each other;
-Share knowledge;
-Detect and remove obstacles;
-Map out resolutions, actions and results;
-and present annual CO2 reports.
The municipality itself will lead the way with a commitment to be carbon neutral by the year
2015. In addition, the Amsterdam Climate Office will establish an Amsterdam Climate Fund to
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finance mitigation projects. The city predicts that at least 18% of its CO2 reduction will be achieved
in the Transportation Sector and at least 24% in the energy sector (by encouraging the switch to
sustainable energy sources)
New initiatives are needed in both energy conservation and transport planning.
[To raise awareness amongst householders and businesses re energy efficiency – campaigns with
eg students?]
[Initiatives such as the Energy Conservation Centre’s programmes or the Viet Nam Green
Buildings’ Council97 lay the foundation for future large scale energy efficiency and conservation.]
An efficient traffic system would significantly reduce CO2 emissions from vehicles.98 However,
due to limited road spaces in big cities and rapidly growing populations, increasing public
transportation is necessary to create an efficient traffic system. This presents an opportunity to
reduce the number of vehicles on the road, which will thereby improve traffic flows and fuel
consumption.
The Urban Heat Island effect will increase the amount of energy consumed in Viet Nam’s cities.
Methods for cooling cities should therefore also become a central consideration of planners and
architects –it can be achieved with for example increased green space; by absorbing radiation in e.g.
solar water heaters and solar panels; and by reflecting sunlight through (white) roofs and water
bodies.
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5. Urban development challenges
"When anything goes wrong, everyone blames each other. Urbanization is a synchronized
process. We can’t just treat one element without considering all the others, like we do now," Pham
Sy Liem, Director of the Urban Research and Infrastructure Development Institute99
5.1
The urban sprawl in Viet Nam
Despite existing policies and plans, urban growth is not always environmentally sustainable and
a high quality of life is not achieved. Even the often commended new development Phu My Hung in
District 7 of Ho Chi Minh City has been criticised for its inappropriate location. New developments
rarely preserve water space and water storage successfully, making flood risks bigger. In Ho Chi Minh
City about 77 percent of the remaining open-space areas could be affected by flooding by
2050100.Although some new infrastructure is climate proofed (and therefore more expensive than
business-as-usual) this is still isolated practice.
Loss of Water Space Reduces Natural Adaptive Capacity
Loss of water space (lakes, rivers, and wetlands) is a common issue in most of Viet Nam’s cities.
Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, due to highly competitive land markets, have witnessed the largest
reduction of water spaces. Lakes and streams are vanishing with or without permission. The
accepted rule in Ho Chi Minh City was to fill-up un-named ponds and streams; only ones with official
names and which appeared on official maps were to be preserved. In Hanoi, in spite of numerous
efforts to preserve water space, 21 lakes inside the city boundary (150ha of water space) were lost
during the past two decades101.
The infrastructure backlog is big and very heavy investment is needed. Cities are rewarded for
the growth by increased transfer of central government infrastructure investment funds. Revenue
generation at the municipal level is weak and few cities have experience with for example diversified
infrastructure finance such as PPPs, infrastructure investment funds, or issuing municipal bonds.102
Most investment in infrastructure is transferred from the central government based upon the
classification of the city, which encourages cities to competition [how do they compete – e.g.
informally with envelopes, formally through project proposals and transparent evaluation of
needs?].
Squatting and encroachment problems persist although since 2002 efforts have been stepped
up. The strengthening of Construction Investigation Forces103 in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
has brought about positive results [what does this mean, specifically?]. However, encroaching still
happens, especially in the urban fringe districts104. Increased migration due to for example increased
flood risks from sea level rise will likely enhance informal settlements.
Land prices are extremely high pushing the poor into marginal (flood prone) areas. Land has
become a way to invest and speculate more than a physical input for housing or industry. Because of
speculation a significant share of VN’s economic resources is being shifted away from more
productive activities. And land speculation is particularly pronounced in peri-urban areas. Cities
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expand rapidly, sprawling into rural areas. By annexing rural communes they also benefit by the sale
of agricultural land for urban development.
There is little involvement of the private sector although it is the driving force of urban growth
and therefore cities fail on opportunities to increase their competitiveness and employment
generation opportunities.
Urban Development Trend: Into the Low-Lying Areas:
A scan of Viet Nam’s largest cities makes clear that they are expanding into high risk areas. Hanoi
is expanding faster towards low lying terrain than to the safer areas north of the Red River.
Hanoi spatial urbanization over 80 years105
Similar situations can been seen in for example Quy Nhon, Ca Mau, and Can Tho106, where new
urban development projects are towards the sea and low lands.
The main driver of this trend is the land market. It often costs much less to acquire water space
such as lakes, small streams, and swamps than other land within the city and the peri-urban areas.
This trend is spurred by private investors, but it is also supported by government infrastructure [this
must be explained, here or in the text, preferably with sound references: is the Gov a land
speculator? Are municipalities using the land market to raise infrastructure investment funds?]. The
costs of climate change adaptation in these areas will likely be high as over time increasing high
demands are placed on infrastructure.
5.2
Urban planning in Viet Nam
The Vietnamese urban planning system relies on three types of development plans (see figure
below). (a) The Socio-Economic Development Plan (SEDP), prepared by the Department of Planning
and Investment, which is a five year plan identifying targets and socio-economic investment
strategies and is generally consistent with the national SEDP for the same five year period. (b) The
Construction Plan, prepared by the Department of Construction (or the Department of Architecture
and Planning, in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh), which is the legal basis for guiding urban infrastructure
development. (c) The third plan is the Land Use Plan, prepared by the Department of Natural
Resources and Environment, which often has some overlapping goals with the Construction Plan. In
addition there are several sectoral plans prepared by the different municipal departments.
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Figure [...] Urban Planning System in Viet Nam: Report on the 2008 National Spatial Policy
Seminar, 2009107 [this does not describe the three plans in the above text, it does not mention
“urban” or cities, and it uses acronyms that are uncommon in Viet Nam, so it should be replaced by a
better figure, or deleted as it confuses. If the presentation of this figure is meant to represent a
proposal for change of the VNse planning system, in the context of climate action, that should be
clearly explained / argued in the text]
Sectoral infrastructure plans are not always integrated within the construction plan. Transport
plans, for example, are often prepared separately and managed by both the Department of
Construction (DOC) and the Department of Transport (DOT). Other sectoral plans include tourism
plans, industrial plans, electricity plans, etc., which are all prepared by other entities. Although all
these plans should be developed upon the basis of construction plan and the land use plan, their
integration is often poor.
All of the above plans tend to be prescriptive. The Construction Plans are design oriented, which
can be effective for planning new urban areas and giving guidance to private development in
undeveloped areas. However, such a design approach is poorly suited for urban renovation, and
increasing resilience within densely populated urban areas.
Compounding the lack of integration among plans is a lack of coordination among departments.
Mechanisms for coordination and integration of planning tasks are necessary to reduce planning
gaps and increase resilience of cities, neighbourhoods and social groups. In 2010 the NTP-RCC
requested cities to prepare their Action Plans to respond to climate change and at the same time the
Government requested major cities to prepare or revise Master plans in 2010 [is a “Master Plan” the
Construction Plan? The SEDP? Another planning tool? Explain without confusing the reader]. It
appears that in most cases these two plans are being done separately, by different groups of
planners and following different visions and objectives. A more strategic approach to planning,
possibly by introduction of a strategic management plan, could bridge sectoral divides and reduce
gaps and overlap. [this is a recommendation and should be here or in the final section of this
chapter, or repeated there – a choice must be made in this regard]
Lawrie Wilson (2009) criticized the Master Planning system as:
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‘It is a process that places a strong focus on the spatial arrangement of buildings
in a very prescriptive way but which does not provide the mechanisms for
management of investment at the local level to ensure that the resulting
development is in the public interest’. This planning tradition is ‘limited to the
preparation of master plans for urban areas but only in a physical or spatial sense,
not comprehensively as part of an integrated process. Various vested interests in
urban development that inhibits or more correctly impedes the establishment and
operation of an efficient, effective and sustainable urban planning system in Viet
Nam’(Wilson, 2009).
The appropriate system, according to Wilson (2009), should be dynamic, strategic, and
integrated product that link strongly with urban management process. Master plans should be
transformed into an evidence–based master framework with strategic planning notion and frontend108 design mechanism.
5.3
Urban planning and climate change
The uncertainties of climate change effects and needs increases the demands on urban planning.
The emerging additional climatic stresses (extreme situations and gradually increasing stresses), are
in addition to the already difficult circumstances such as rapid urbanization and lack of basic
infrastructure. Furthermore, the need for mitigation of GHG emissions, with economic,
environmental and social co-benefits also increases demands on planning and capability of making
adjustments in response to new circumstances. Planning in uncertainty is asking for a flexible and
strategic planning approach but that is not a characteristic of current planning approach in Viet Nam.
Viet Nam has a well established process for the preparation of prescriptive construction master
plans [what is the difference between “construction master plans” and “Master Planning”? Master
Plan or Master Planning, what is this about? In endnote all these terms should be given in
Vietnamese too, because there generally is confusion in English whilst in Vietnamese categories of
planning are defined legally] but it does not practice responsive urban planning in a manner as is
now common in countries with developed market economies. Under the current Master Plan based
system it is difficult to enhance climate change adaptation, increase climate resilience, and
implement strategies towards low carbon or even carbon neutral cities. However, the Master Plan is
the only tool available at the moment.
In some cities specific institutional bodies to respond to climate change have been set up. In Ho
Chi Minh City, the Flood and Storm Protection Agency (focal point is DARD) [is this agency or
committee? What is the VNse name – put in endnote?] has been proposed [has this now
happened?] to transform into a Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Agency. In Hanoi a
multiagency team in addition to the Flood and Storm Protection Agency [CFSCs in provinces and
municipalities are normal – committee for flood and storm control, so not “Agency” – is that meant
here? CFSCs exist for decades CFSCs are led by DARDs, so why is this separate? Is this symptomatic
of the institutional problems in VN??] has been formed to assess climate change risks, with DONRE
as the focal point [this seems inconsistent with what is in the box below, where a SC is also
presented.]. This reflects a lack of national framework, and ministerial leadership, to facilitate the
municipal level institutional set-ups necessary for climate change planning [I am not sure whether
that would be the exact solution, and to which problem? check the NTP-RCC whether there is any
advise on provincial / municipal set up – some have formed a special office for cc, as MARD has
done].
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Institutional arrangement for climate change management in Hanoi
-
Establishment of a team responsible for climate change related activities of the city by Decision
752/QD-UBND dated July 23, 2009. The team consists of members from different constituent
departments, with the focal point is DONRE. The team is responsible to build the action plan to
respond to climate change.
-
Establish a Steering Committee for Climate Change (SCCC) to review and endorse the action plan
-
Integrate the results of the LRAP into investment planning, urban planning and natural disaster
mitigation platforms and processes at the city and local levels; and
-
Coordinate the programs of other entities active in Hanoi dealing with climate change impacts.
-
Partnerships with local expertise, especially universities and technical institutes will be essential
for creating and integrating projections of future impacts of climate change and natural disasters
into the planning process. These partnerships will also provide long-term stability to the LRAP
process and can help to determine the city’s long-term climate resilience priorities that span
across the terms of office of officials and governments.
Source: LRAP, 2009 [not in ref list?]
[one key problem with the NTP-RCC is that it is weak on GHG emissions mitigation, and at the
local level such as in the box above the focus has often become completely adaptation focused. This
should be observed and analysed in this text, and for cities the main implication is that the response
to climate change is not at all comprehensive or capable of finding opportunities in economic
development with for example reduced pollution as a co-benefit – but rather that it is firefighting
based on victimhood, that all there is is extra cost and needs]
To strengthen climate change adaptation planning and putting cities on a low carbon
development paths several changes are critical [the following are reworded as recommendations
(they were “issues” and questions and I have added one or two, but several of the following
recommendations lack the analysis in earlier text that is required to make them; this is especially so
regarding participation of civil society and the business / private sector in urban planning], with
regards to city planning.

The overall (city) planning system in Viet Nam must become more integrated and strategic,
based on international experience and models. This planning must be comprehensive.

Planning lags behind the rate of urbanization and unsuitable land is being developed. This
lack of planning and pockets of informal development have consequences for low income
households which seek affordable housing in low lying areas. High migration rates, which
may increase even further in some coastal cities, increases the need for advanced planning
with a special focus on vulnerable peripheral areas and social groups.

Planning processes should be fully opened up to civil society / community groups
representing their local interests, especially through public consultations, transparent data
publication and possibly local referendums on a selection of proposals. This should help in
particular to achieve improvements in access to social and environmental services.

Critical is improved transparency of real estate transactions and ownership, including
transactions made by local authorities to raise investment capital.
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
The private sector is probably the most important “driver” of urban development in Viet
Nam. Yet, urban planning is still conceived as a solely government exercise without involving
the private sector, which has however primary interests in good adaptation planning and
low carbon development as it will save costs and create business opportunities. They should
be fully incorporated into the planning process through transparent data publication and
consultation processes.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments must be fully integrated into city
development strategies and plans (land use plans, SEDPs, construction plans, transport
plans, etc.). There is a particular need for land use plans to play a larger role in determining
other plans.
[The following box is (again) only about vulnerability and adaptation, which is limiting]
Steps to be taken by Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee [for what?]









Prepare an action plan for climate change response of HCMC
Reform the Flood Protection Agency into Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation agency
Establish climate change mitigation and adaptation fund
Providing funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation in 5 year cycle
Modify, adapt current strategies and plans (for example the dike system)
Pilot studies on adaptive measures
Re-assess and modify the land use plan as an effective way to promote and implement
adaptation
Implement selected adaptation measures in order to filter and re-assess all spatial planning and
sector planning, and
Incorporate climate change impacts in to SEA and EIA in order to integrate climate change into
socio-economic planning.
Source: ADB & HCM City PC (2008), Vulnerability and Adaptation Analysis [full reference in list]

Finance for adaptation actions must be accessed, and will come from multiple sources.
International public finance (ODA) will be limited and should be applied to technical
assistance and capacity building (mostly grants) as well as the most strategic and perhaps
pilot infrastructure investments (mostly from loans). Most adaptation infrastructure will
however require domestic investment capital, only some of which can be generated from
the private sector. Infrastructure investments must be planned within a comprehensive and
integrated scheme and include full cost-benefit analysis109

Finance for mitigation must be leveraged mainly in the business sector, which holds most
technological knowledge and potential for innovation. This requires strategic investments in
capacities by the public sector (domestic funds and ODA), and this must enhance fiscal and
regulatory policies to ensure that private investment is made in energy efficiency, renewable
energy generation, and clean production and transport technologies.

Viet Nam has embarked on a decentralization program. A cornerstone of this program was
the approval of the 1996 State Budget Law. The 2002 State Budget Law consolidated the
reforms and gave provincial (municipal) governments much greater discretion over the
budgets of districts and communes under their authority. This provides the opportunity for
more efficient and equitable resource mobilization and allocation. The decentralization has
been a substantial, with the share of local governments in total expenditures increasing from
26 percent in 1992 to 48 percent in 2002. This helps major cities in investing in climate
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change responses, but to generate additional resources to support actions, municipal
governments, and particularly in small and medium sized towns will need extensive support
in planning, managing and financing adaptation infrastructure.
6. Summary of conclusions and recommendations
[This should summarise the main conclusions and recommendations made in chapters 2-5,
meaning some repetition. It should not introduce new ideas (which it still does, despite the fact that
I have started to edit – but such points should be made in earlier chapters).]
Climate change action offers development opportunities. Climate change adaptation and
mitigation measures can have co-benefits, and in fact it is those co-benefits that should largely
determine what the priority actions are.
Planned adaptation demands policy and institutional change to reduce the negative impacts of
climate change. If these changes are managed well and the right decisions are made now the
pressure of climate change could result in opportunities for more sustainable and therefore more
competitive cities.
Certain city governments are at the forefront of innovation, globally. They have the technical
capacity and political willingness to integrate climate change adaptation and GHG emissions
mitigation into city development plans. Examples show that making cities safe from environmental
threats also has positive effect on the urban economy and environmental health.
Cities have important potential advantages to both climate adaptation and mitigation. By
concentrating population, buildings and enterprises, cities provide many economies of scale and
proximity to services.
There are many co-benefits between adaptation and development as better quality buildings
served with needed infrastructure (for water, sanitation, drainage and electricity) and services
reduce many climate change related risks. There are also a range of potential co-benefits between
development and mitigation – for instance the switch to cleaner fuels in production, households and
electricity generation that reduces GHG emissions and air pollution. GHG emissions mitigation also
helps reduce other pollutants and contributes to cleaner air and therefore contributes to a healthy
and more sustainable living environment.
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Annex
Examples of urbanization and climate change
adaptation challenges
[Use cases in text-boxes throughout or refer to the annex in the text?]
The choices made in urban development and planning significantly affect the level of climaterelated risk at which cities find themselves. Below are a number of examples of urban problems
caused by unchecked development and ineffective planning practices, many of which will be
enhanced by shocks and stresses from climate change.
Case 1 Gaps in Drainage Infrastructure and Inconsistent Maintenance
Poor maintenance and gaps in the drainage system increase risk in poor and unplanned urban
areas. The sewerage and drainage system of Hanoi combines both industrial and domestic
wastewater, storm water and street cleaning water and is managed by municipal drainage
companies. It is estimated that only 70 % of total length of the city’s roads are equipped with
primary drains. The remaining sewerage and drainage network in small alleys and living quarters is
under management responsibility of the local authorities without drainage expertise.
Most of the existing sewerage and drainage channels in small alleys in Hanoi are small in size,
have a low hydraulic slope, an inappropriate structure, and the amount of sludge and sediment that
settled in the system is relatively high. The result is a system incapable of handling moderate
flooding, in spite of its intended design.
Case 2 Phu My Hung: Infill in Flood Prone areas Transfers Risk
Phu My Hung, a new urban area in the south of Ho Chi Minh City, has been touted as an example
of engineering and investment accomplishment. Promotional literature for the development states:
“Phu My Hung is a modern New City Centre, built from the marshland in the south of Ho Chi Minh
City. Over 15 years of development…which have marked the changes of the land and achievements
through the great efforts of the investors and the government.”110
Phu My Hung stretches over the low-lying lands south of Ho Chi Minh City centre, an area which
once had high absorption capacity, collecting runoff from districts in central Ho Chi Minh City. During
the construction of Phu My Hung, numerous small streams, lakes, and swamps were filled. It is
estimated that 2,6000 ha have been reclaimed for the project.
The development of Phu My Hung, coupled with the development of 10,000ha of surrounding
farmland, has increased flooding in other parts of Ho Chi Minh City. 111 This transferal of risk
contributed to floods affecting almost half of the wards in Ho Chi Minh City in late 2009. An
estimate from HCM City Department of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates annual flood
losses in the city at 14 trillion VND (nearly $780 million).112
Case 3 Illegal Encroachment Reduces Lakes and Open Spaces
The area of lakes and ponds in Hanoi has shrunk due to encroachment of the people living
nearby. Van Chuong and Linh Quang lakes used to be a green lung of the Dong Da District. However,
for the past ten years temporary houses, toilets, kitchens, animal sheds, yards for wastes business,
etc. have been established around the lakes, severely polluting them.
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Hundreds of cases of illegal encroachment have been reported across Ha Noi. Urban lakes and
wetlands are often filled in with sand and then quickly sold illegally. Viet Nam News Reports that
Chuong My District have witnessed widespread illegal encroachment of reservoirs in the past year
and requests from Day River Irrigation Company to halt the encroachment have fallen on deaf
ears.113
Case 4 District 2, HCMC: Ad Hoc Approach to Climate Proofing
In 2009 a decision was made to raise sewerage and water supply infrastructure one metre in
some areas of Ho Chi Minh City’s District 2. However, this was not done in a comprehensive districtwide in a manner. Inundation from the river ended up flooding half the district since the district area
was not climate proof.
Case 5 Ineffective Land Use In Peri-Urban Areas Affects Absorption Capacity
Peri-urban agricultural land, which also serves to absorb flood water from urban areas, is rapidly
disappearing. Conversion of land from agricultural use or open space to residential and commercial
development has been an important source of income and a helpful instrument for local
government’s to meet their land use targets. Deputy Minister of DONRE, Mr. Ngoc Tran criticized
several provinces for excessive arable land conversion, which has been blamed for the
uncontrollable conversion of arable land that seriously harmful for food security.
Case 6 Poorly Coordinated Plans Undermine Development Controls
Within the urban planning system in Viet Nam, two types of land use plans exist: the
‘construction plan’, produced by Departments of Construction (DOC) or the Department of Planning
and Architecture and the ‘land use plan’ prepared by Department of Natural Resources &
Environment (DONRE). This is often causing conflicts: The ‘construction plan’ typically includes
designations for land use, but this can be different from DONRE’s land use plan in terms of scope
and objectives. A construction development plan is revised according to its periods and needs;
meanwhile land use planning of DONRE has its own purpose, periods, and priorities. There is
documented evidence of developers facing a green-light from DOC and a red-light from DONRE.
Case 7 Unplanned Areas Lack Adaptive Design and Infrastructure
Before 1998, most housing re-development (including self-help housing in the suburb) in Hanoi
and Ho Chi Minh were built without permission.114 After 1999, things improved as a result of efforts
from municipal and district governments, supported by the MoC’s Construction Investigation Force.
By 2005, 60% of the houses built in Hanoi were licensed, and this rate was above 90% by 2009.
However, the scars of the pre-1999 period are permanent, demonstrated by poor quality housing,
poor access and the loss of water and open spaces. In addition to below standard properties, many
of these unplanned areas have insufficient or incomprehensive drainage infrastructure. The cost of
climate proofing these areas is now significantly higher than it would have been had the areas been
properly planned.
Case 8 “Hard” Adaptation Can Lead to the Transfer of Risks
Viet Nam has a history of building dikes to protect human settlements. While most dikes have
functioned well, they are expensive to build and have proven unable to provide comprehensive
coverage. This has sparked a debate about the applicability of ‘hard’ engineering solutions. Recent
climate change effects, according to Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert in UNDP’s Human
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Development Report, saw the phrase “living with the floods” take centre stage.115 A dike proposed
for HCMC in 2008 was found to “turn the city into a fish bowl” in the words of Jeremy Carew Reid of
ICEM, due to poor drainage networks, inadequate open land and encroached upon water bodies.116
A recent shift has led to soft adaptations, including upstream forestation (Hanoi) and mangrove
planting along the coastline.
Case 9 Poor Data Sharing and Spatial Analysis Deprives Planners of a Key Tool
According to the MegaCities Project in Ho Chi Minh City, “spatially explicit vulnerability
assessment” should be the basis for land use and construction planning.117 Mapping and data
sharing, however, is inconsistent and departments tend to work in isolation. For urban mapping and
data collection, for example, DOC and DONRE use their own managerial codes and maps. There is
almost no regular protocol to update base maps between district and city authorities, between DOC
and DONRE, and amongst other agencies. The team for the Local Resilience Action Plan in Hanoi
found that many districts and 100% of wards lacked digital maps. Municipal agencies which did
possess digital programs, “produced maps for their own purposes.”118 In the past, hazard maps were
produced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development for disaster risk management
purposes, but these were not comprehensive and lacked consistent data.119
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
References
[this should follow a chosen format, for example the format of the entries made here]
Action Aid Viet Nam & Oxfam Viet Nam. (2009) The impacts of the global economic crisis on
migration patterns in Viet Nam: Findings from rapid assessments in five provinces and cities, March August 2009. Hanoi: Action Aid Viet Nam and Oxfam Viet Nam
Adger, W. Neil, P. Mick Kelly, Alexandra Winkels, Luong Quang Huy and Catherine Locke. (2002)
Migration, Remittances, Livelihood Trajectories, and Social Resilience. Ambio Vol. 31 No. 4, June
2002 Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
Chaudhry, Peter and Ruysschaert, Greet. (2007) Climate Change and Human Development in Viet
Nam, a desk research paper by UNDP and Oxfam Great Britain, Human Development Report Office,
Occasional Paper 2007/46, New York: UNDP.
Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheeler, and J. Yan. (2007) The impact of sea level rise
on developing countries: A comparative analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136
(WPS4136). Washington DC: World Bank.
Dun, Olivia. (2009) Linkages between Flooding, Migration and Resettlement, Viet Nam Case
Study Report for Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR) funded by the
European Commission, SERI (Austria) and ATLAS Innoglobe (Hungary).
Few, R. and Tran, P.G. (2010). Climatic hazards, health and poverty: exploring the connections in
Viet Nam. Working paper 19, University of East Anglia, UK.
Harmeling, Sven. (2010) Global Climate Risk Index 2011. Who Suffers Most From Extreme
Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2009 and 1990 to 2009. Bonn & Berlin:
Germanwatch.
Hugo, G. (2008) Migration, Development and Environment. IOM Migration Research Series, No.
35. Geneva: International Organization for Migration (IOM).
IPCC. (2007) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
MONRE. (2008) The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC). Hanoi:
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment [check publication]
MONRE. (2009) Climate Change, Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Viet Nam. Hanoi: Ministry of
Natural Resources and Environment
Ta Thi Thanh Huong, and Neefjes, Koos. (2010) Climate change and social services. Working
Paper for the 2010 Viet Nam Human Development Report “People-centered institutions for human
resource development” Final draft, September 2010. Hanoi: UNDP-Vietnam.
UN and Oxfam in Viet Nam. (2009) Responding to climate change in Viet Nam: Opportunities for
improving gender equality. A policy discussion paper. Hanoi: United Nations and Oxfam in Viet Nam.
46 | P a g e
Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
UN-Viet Nam. (2009a) Viet Nam and Climate Change: A discussion paper on policies for
sustainable human development. Hanoi: United Nations in Viet Nam.
UN Viet Nam. (2009b) Climate Change Fact Sheet: The effects of climate change in Viet Nam and
the UN’s response (version of 19 October 2009). Hanoi: United Nations in Viet Nam.
Wilbanks, Tom and Patricia Romero Lankao with Manzhu Bao, Frans Berkhout, Sandy Cairncross,
Jean-Paul Ceron, Manmohan Kapshe, Robert Muir-Wood and Ricardo Zapata-Marti. (2007), “Chapter
7: Industry, Settlement and Society”, in: Parry, Martin, Osvaldo Canziani, Jean Palutikof, Paul van der
Linden and Clair Hanson (editors) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, pages 357-390. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
Endnotes
1
Harmeling, 2010, shows this for the period 1990-2009 [get also a ref from MARD disasters papers]
2
This caused blackouts in 2009 and 2010, whereas major hydroelectric lakes remain under capacity at the
end of the rainy season of 2010
3
See for example the “Cancun Agreements”, reached in late 2010 under the Conference of Parties (COP)
to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), particularly “Outcome of the work of the Ad
Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16, available
on http://unfccc.int/2860.php )
4
UN - Viet Nam, 2009a
5
Article in Vietnam News [ref?]
6
IPCC, 2007; UNDP, 2007 [full ref in list of references]
7
Prime Minister Decision 158/2008/QĐ-TTg, 2 December 2008
8
Prime Minister Decision 79/2006/QĐ-TTg, 14 April 2006
9
MoNRE
10
MOC
11
ACCCRN, the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, has pilot projects in Can Tho, Da Nang,
and Quy Nhon with local DoNREs; see http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/currentwork/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience . The World Bank’s Climate
Resilient Cities Projects has written an Action Plan for Hanoi together with DoNRE [contact?]. The MegaCities
Project is currently active in HCMC [contact?].
12
National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. [????]Resolution No. 60/2007/Nq-Cp, p. 39-40
13
Ibid [never use this in automated notes: give the actual ref]
14
Prime Minister, 2009, p.2 [ref?]
15
Decision No. 445/QĐ-TTg dated 07/04/2009
16
Kundu, Amitabh. Urbanisation and Migration: An Analysis of Trend, Pattern and Policies in Asia. Human
Development Research Paper. April 2009. [publisher?]
17
Waibel Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial
Dimensions, Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg
[date?]
18
Waibel, Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial
Dimensions, Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg
[date?]
19
Garschagen, Matthias. “Urban Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam – Institutional Challenges and
Research Agenda.” Bonn: UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security [full ref in list? I think
our text should not talk of the misused term “climate refugees” and I have deleted that]
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
20
United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Report on “Human
security, climate change, and environmentally induced migration” (version 30 May 2008) [correct ref in list?]
21
ACCRN and Megacities project both identified these constraints [ref?]
22
See “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the
Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16)
23
See also “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under
the Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16)
24
Temperatures in Northern climate zones of the country increased faster than that in the South (MONRE,
2009: 4-5).
25
These projections contain uncertainties, which are explained by low confidence of emission scenarios,
errors of climate models, errors in the statistical downscaling method, and differences of climatic factors by
location (MONRE, 2009: 17). However, these uncertainties should be no means lead to doubt the massive scale
of the climate change risks and likely effects.
26
MONRE, 2009
27
Harmeling, 2010
28
Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre
http://www.adpc.net/v2007/Programs/UDRM/PROMISE/INFORMATION%20RESOURCES/MonthlyEnews/2006/Sep/September2006.asp [accessed when?]
29
Disaster Risk Management Programs For Priority Countries East Asia And Pacific, p. 52 [full ref in list?
Author and page here]
30
Weathering the Storm: Options for Disaster Risk Financing in Vietnam. Word Bank, 2010. [full ref in list?]
31
Hugo, 2008. The LECZ is the zone with elevation within 10 metres of mean sea level.
32
MOC estimation, report from HCMC Land and Housing Department report, 2004 [full reference in list?]
33
ICEM presentation, 2009 [full reference in list? And why use an ICEM presentation instead of their
publication?]
34
[see presentation at Rockefeller seminar by Can Tho PC]
35
Calculation in 2005, based on Hanoi statistical year book [need a proper reference].
36
HAIDEP [year? full reference in list?]
37
DONRE, 2009. [full reference in list?]
38
HAIDEP report in June 2006, Section 10-19, by Almec, Nippon Koei, and Yachiyo. [this needs proper, full
reference in list]
39
Viet Nam News. “Blocked drains cause flooding” 09/03/2010 [This reference should be in end notes not
in reference list, as it is a newspaper article. However, to use newspaper references is not generally a very
good idea, certainly not in Viet Nam where there is massive misreporting of numbers (journalists appear to be
number blind): what is the official report where this came from?]
40
Harry Storch, Nigel Downes, Kiduk Moon, [full ref in list?] citing Tran Thi Van 2004; Ho Tong Minh Dinh
et al., 2006/ Le Van Trung et al., 2006.
41
Satterthwaite, 2009 [full title in the reference list]
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
42
Dodman, 2009:13 [full ref in list?]
43
Coulthart et al., 2006.
44
Waibel, Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial
Dimensions, Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg
[date? full title in the reference list]
45
World Bank data 2007 [this is a meaningless reference? full title in list is needed. Also, poverty data that
are more recent should be available easily]
46
On migration see e.g. Action Aid Viet Nam & Oxfam Viet Nam, 2009; Adger et al., 2002; and also
Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007; UN-Viet Nam, 2009
47
See: IPCC, 2007, which labelled the Mekong Delta in Viet Nam and Cambodia one of three global
hotspots re migration pressures as a result of sea level rise; Dasgupta et al., 2007; and UN-Viet Nam, 2009
48
Cecilia Tacoli Presentation (IIED) [this is not a complete and correct way of referencing], The links
between rural and urban development in Africa and Asia
49
Prof Dang Anh. “Scoping Study on the Contribution of Circular Migration to Poverty Reduction in India
and Vietnam” [date? full title in the reference list]
50
Waibel [date?]
51
Coulthart, Quang and Sharpe, Vietnam’s Infrastructure Challenge, 2006. [this is not a complete and
correct way of referencing]
52
Nha Be, District 7 and Can Gio [ref?]
53
Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008[this is not a complete and correct way of
referencing]
54
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/poor-planning-behind-istanbul-deluge.php [accessed when?
This whole story seems summarized from one newspaper article, and that needs proper referencing. Are only
the quotes from the article or are they quotes in the article?]
55
Tuoi Tre newspaper, 2009 [not an appropriate source: such data should come from official publications
not newspapers]
56
Le, 2007 [full title in the reference list; also considering that 15% or so of all Vietnamese families are
called Le]
57
Poverty line is at 12,000,000VND/person/year [source? When was this? Has the poverty line not
recently been updated?]
58
Any action plan to respond to climate change (and other hazards and risks) should consider all kinds of
vulnerabilities and the conditions contributing to that vulnerability, and the alternatives to change the
conditions and reduce vulnerability.
59
Viet Nam Water & Sanitation Sector Assessment, Strategy and Roadmap. Asian Development Bank,
Southeast Asia Department, Energy & Water Division. (Final Draft March 2010) [full ref in list?]
60
Prof. Le Van Trung, Center of geographical information technology, Ho Chi Minh City National
University. http://tinnhanhvietnam.net/xa-hoi/su-co-cac-cong-trinh-co-lien-quan-den-tang-nuoc-ngam.html
[accessed when?]
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
61
Nguyen Van Dan and Nguyen Thi Dzung “Groundwater pollution in the Hanoi area.” The Northern Hydro
geological Engineering Geological Division. Cau Giay – Ha Noi; Department of Geology and Minerals of
Vietnam. 6 Pham Ngu Lao- Ha Noi [date? full title in the reference list]
62
Nguyen Viet Anh, November 2008 [full reference in list?]
63
http://www.xaydung.gov.vn/site/moc/faq?qId=1309
64
www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1969630,00.html [accessed when?]
65
See the Cancun agreements: UNFCCC Draft decision [-/CP.16] Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc
Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
66
In Resolution No. 60/2007/NQ-CP dated December 3rd 2007 the Government has assigned MONRE to
be in charge in collaboration with other related ministries and sectors to develop a NTP for coping with global
climate change. (NTP p. 8)
67
MPI. Draft SEDP 2011-2015 [full ref in list?]
68
ADB Asian Development Outlook 2010. [full ref in list?]
69
Workshop on PPP organized by MPI and WB, 25/06/2008.
http://www.metvuong.com/thongtin/1664_Huy-dong-von-ca-nhan-cho-phat-trien-co-so-ha-tang.html
[accessed when?]
70
(World Bank. Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy - Building on a solid foundation. 2006) [full ref in
list?]
71
April 2009 The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review ADB [full ref in list?]
72
Workshop on Public Private Partnership in Vietnam. MPI and WB. Hanoi 25/6/2008.
73
The urban population would rise to 40-42 million people in 2030 according to Coulthart et al., 2006.
However, this does not take into account unregistered migrants. If these would be included the number would
reach as a high as 52 million by 2025, according to the MoC [ref in list?].
74
Pricewaterhouse Coopers (Ho Chi Minh City, 09 November 2009)
75
Urbanization Review [full reference in list?]
76
Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008 [quoted from page?]
77
Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008 [in endnote limit to author and year – ref in
ref list]
78
Choosing Success, Harvard Viet Nam Program January 2008 [quoted from page?]
79
Global Environment Facility .Investing In Sustainable Urban Transport: The GEF Experience. 2009 [full ref
in list?]
80
[references that can be used here include the UNDP HDR (2007), the UN-VN factsheet on emissions, and
VNs second communication, on the UNFCCC website now]
81
Vietnam’s CO2 emissions lower than regional, world levels. (05 June 2008) [ref?]
82
World Bank energy data, 2009. [full ref in list?]
83
Globalis [date? full ref in list?]
84
“In Ho Chi Minh City, 50% of industrial equipments are obsolete, 40% are acceptable and 10% are
modern equipments” Do, Tuong Tri. Ho Chi Minh City Energy: The Source And Challenge For The Next Year.
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
2003
85
Do, Tuong Tri. Ho Chi Minh City Energy: The Source And Challenge For The Next Year. 2003 [full ref in
list?]
86
Vietnam Business News. “Energy Conservation in Households” May 10, 2010
87
Storch et al. [full reference in list?]
88
Govinda R. Timilsina and Ashish Shrestha (2009) Policy Research Working Paper: Why have CO2
Emissions Increased in the Transport Sector in Asia? World Bank.
89
Govinda R. Timilsina and Ashish Shrestha, 2009, citing IEA data (2007b, c) [for energy / fuel use data use
MONRE, MOIT data; UN data sheet that summarises it?]
90
JICA[ref?]. HAIDEP, 2006
91
TRAMOC [ref?]
92
Clean Air in Vietnam: Summary of Progress on Improving Urban Air Quality. 2008 [full ref in list?
Publisher?]
93
Vietnam News: HCM City Pollution Alarming. (16:54' 03/01/2010)
94
http://www.c40cities.org/bestpractices/lighting/vietnam_lighting.jsp [accessed when?]
95
See the following website for detailed updates of the CDM in Viet Nam: [in the earlier draft text there
was a lot of detail on the CDM in VN which is not needed; the information was cut and paste from the website,
which is highly inappropriate for any text such as this without quotation marks and reference]
96
New Amsterdam Climate: Summary of Plans and Ongoing Projects, 2008 [full ref in list?]
97
Projects like the United Nations’ Green One UN House in Hanoi also raise awareness.
98
“Transport uses 30% of the fuel in developed countries. In Vietnam it should still be only 5%!” TRAMOC
presentation: The Nine Challenges for the Development of Transport in the Fast Growing Capital of Vietnam:
Hanoi. TRAMOC [date?]
99
Vietnam News Article [ref?]
100
Personal communication: Jeremy Carew-Reid, director of the ICEM at Seminar in Hanoi on the
Masterplan 2009 [exact date?]
101
DONRE, 2009.
102
Alan Coulthart, Nguyen Quang, and Henry Sharpe. Urban Development Strategy: Meeting the
Challenges of Rapid Urbanization and Transition to a Market Oriented Economy. World Bank. 2006.
103
The reinforcement of the Construction investigators has been piloted in Hanoi and Hochiminh city since
2002. In 2007, this force became permanent, and the number of man powers working in Hanoi and Hochiminh
city increase 10 times comparing to a decade before.
104
Annual Report from Department of Construction in Hanoi, from 2002 to 2008.
105
Haidep, 2007 [ in other places this would be 2006?]
106
Conference in Danang, December 2009 on climate change threats and opportunities, UNDP.
107
National and Regional Planning Bureau, MLIT, Japan [ref?]
108
Front-end process highlights the focus of planning method that creating outcomes that helps
addressing concrete problems in the identified constraints on resources. These are both at the beginning and
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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010
end result development plan. Meanwhile, Master plan aims at creating long-term future development that
focuses on new construction buildings without detailed guidelines to monitor outcomes of each activity in the
development processes.
109
This point is one of the key challenges identified by ACCCRN Viet Nam (Asian Cities Climate Change
Resilience Network: Responding to the Urban Climate Challenge. Eds. ISET, Boulder, Colorado, USA, November
2009, page 16)
110
http://phumyhung.com.vn/eng/introduce.php?id=1 [accessed when?]
111
Viet Nam News. “Blocked drains cause flooding” 09/03/2010
112
Vietnam Net. Ho Chi Minh City Loses Nearly 780 Million in Floods” (Thursday, 11 March 2010)
113
Vietnam News. “Encroachment on Lakes” [date, link?]
114
MOC, Hanoi, and HCM City reports, 1997-2000. [ref?]
115
Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007
116
Masterplan workshop. Hanoi, 2009. [full reference in list?]
117
Harry Storch, Nigel Downes, Kiduk Moon, [full reference in list?]
118
Hanoi Local Resilience Action Plan for the City of Hanoi. World Bank and DoNRE. 2010., p 87 [full
reference in list; author and page here]
119
Disaster Risk Management Programs For Priority Countries East Asia And Pacific, p. 52 [full reference in
list; author and page here]
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