The Rational Choice Theory or “homo economicus” argues that humans are rational beings and thus seek to
maximize benefits and minimize costs while making a decision. Many political scientists argue that the rational choice
theory can be used to predict and/or analyze how a voter should decide between candidates in an election. The model
below is based upon a calculation of importance and utility weights that are assigned to each issue. This model only
considers logical and relevance therefore the importance value is calculated based on the impact of the issue on the voter’s
day to day life and the utility value is calculated based on whether the candidate’s policy on the issue would positively or
negatively affect the individual’s life.
To demonstrate the proper application of this model to the upcoming presidential election, I will create a
hypothetical voter and analyze the issues central to the Obama-Romney 2012 Presidential Campaign. The individual that will
be used is a 65 year old white male who is a retired engineer and has a history of heart and skin cancer medical
complications. He is in the upper middle class and an assistant Christian minister in Hendersonville, NC. He is married and
from his two children now has five grandchildren.
Barack Obama
Issue
Importance
Utility
Unemployment/Jobs
Federal Budget Deficit
3
4
-1
1
Issue
Value
-3
4
National Health Care
Plan
Energy and
Environment
Education
4
1
4
1
-1
-1
Unemployment/Jobs
Federal Budget Deficit
3
4
1
-1
Issue
Value
3
-4
3
1
3
National Health Care Plan
4
-1
-4
Energy and Environment
1
1
1
Education
3
-1
-3
Mitt Romney
Issue
TOTAL VALUE
7
Importance
Utility
TOTAL VALUE
-7
In order to determine the most relative and likely issues that the individual would consider in deciding which
candidate to support, I primarily used a gallup poll conducted in June 2012. The five policy issues for this model are job
security/unemployment, the federal budget deficit, National Health care, energy and environment, and education. (The
results and details of the gallup poll are shown in the chart below.)
Importance Value Explanations
The importance value was calculated on a scale of 0 to 5. A designation of zero indicates that the issue has no
impact in the individual’s daily life. A value of 5 demonstrates the issue is very relevant.
1) Unemployment/Job Security- 3
a. The individual is a retired mechanical engineer and receives a monthly pension from his previous
employer therefore the availability of open jobs does not directly impact his life. However the
individual’s children and grandchildren remain impacted by the job market and thus the individual has
some interest in the issue of unemployment and job creation.
2) Federal Budget Deficit – 4
a. The federal Budget deficit is given a 4 because due to the fact that the individual is a senior citizen he is
a participant in both the social security and medicare. Decisions on how much money to allocate to
government programs and budget cuts could directly impact his income and medical care.
3) Health Care – 4
a. Due to the individuals recurring heart complications and medical history of skin cancer, the issue of
health care has a direct impact on his day to day life and self-interest. Nationalized health care
distributes burden and lowers rates for those with illnesses. Change in health care policies could
potentially make some procedures unaffordable and affect his quality of life.
4) Energy and Environment – 1
a. The environment and energy has no relevance to the voter’s day to day life as a retired senior citizen.
Pollution is not a pressing issue in Hendersonville, NC and global warming does not directly impact his
daily life.
5) Education – 3
a. Although the voter is a 65 year old retired man that does not directly participate in the education
system, he continues to give some financial aid the college education of three of his grandchildren at
two different public universities. Thus he has a vested interest in education reform and policy.
Utility Value Explanations
The utility value was calculated on a scale -1 to 1 based on whether the candidate’s stance on the issue would
negatively affect or positively affect the voter’s self-interest and daily life.
1) Unemployment Job creation – Romney
a. Statistics reveal that Obama’s stimulus plan has “failed to significantly drop the record-high
unemployment rate of 9.1% “ (Cnn). Romney plans to enact a five point plan that he promises will not
only reduce the deficit, but drastically reduce unemployment by creating jobs and allowing small
businesses to thrive (Romney.com).
2) Federal Budget deficit - Obama
a. Obama’s policy to reduce the federal debt does not include cutting or drastically changing the social
security programs that could reduce current benefits and possibly cut the social security benefits of
future generations. Paul Ryan, Romney’s running mate, authored a proposal for the privatization of
Social security which would make it vulnerable to the nature of the stock market. (Obama.com)
3) Health Care – Obama
a. Obamacare gives senior citizens access to free preventative screening. Under the affordable health care
act, “people enrolled in traditional Medicare will save an average of $4,200 in health care expenses over
the next 10 years” and will be applicable for free annual check ups. (Obama.com) Romney vows to
repeal obamacare and privatize health care on his first day in office.
4) Energy and Environment – Romney
a. Obama’s promise to make America “green” and advance clean energy usage has been largely ineffective
and wasteful of taxpayer dollars. In office Obama has spent $60 billion on “green funding” yet only 466
of over 3,000 students of the federal “green jobs” program have found jobs in the field. (Romney)
5) Education – Obama
a. To encourage higher education, Obama has worked to make college more affordable by capping
repayments of student loans at 10% of their income. In order to cut spending, Romney plans to
eliminate Pell grants which aids over 10 million students nationwide (Obama).
In conclusion, according to the calculations demonstrated in the charts above. The rational decision is for the voter to elect
Obama to another term in office.
References
1) "Where Obama Stands: The Economy." CNN. Cable News Network, n.d. Web. 24 Sept. 2012.
<http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/campaign-issues.html>.
2) "US Economy." USA Today. Gannett, n.d. Web. 24 Sept. 2012.
<http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/issues/economy>.
3) "Issues - Economy — Barack Obama." Obama for America. Obama Campaign, n.d. Web. 24 Sept. 2012.
<http://www.barackobama.com/economy?source=primary-nav-om>.
4) "Issues." Mitt Romney for President. Romney Campaign, n.d. Web. 24 Sept. 2012.
http://www.mittromney.com/issues
5) Newport, Frank. "Majority in U.S. Still Say Government Doing Too Much." Majority in U.S. Still Say Government
Doing Too Much. N.p., 12 Sept. 2012. Web. 24 Sept. 2012. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/157481/majority-saygovernment-doing.aspx>.
6) "Most Important Problem." Most Important Problem. Gallup, n.d. Web. 24 Sept. 2012.
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx>.