1 The Effect of the Nargis Cyclone in Myanmar 1. Jirapat Sakudomchai 5610545978 2. Supanat Sornmayura 5610546052 3. Mookrawee Rattanawiboon 5610545374 4. Panich Nimpanich 5610546010 5. Jidapa Talaupala 5610545960 6. Burintas Suttidet 5610545277 7. Pongtawat Hunwattanawong 5710546976 8. Chalee Bunaoom 5710546925 01999141 Man& Society International Undergraduate Program Kasetsart University 2 Preface This production has prepare a report on The Effect of the Nargis Cyclone in Myanmar in 2011.We choose this topic because this disaster is the most epic cyclone that happened Myanmar around 12 years. This report will shows the the Effect of the Nargis Cyclone that happened to Myanmar. The production hopes the report is useful for learning. If there is any mistake in this report , please accept our apology at this stage. 3 Table of contents page What is the strom? 4 Tropical cyclone or cyclone. 5 What's the difference? How the Cyclone Nargis come from? 6 Effected to Nature 8 Effected to population 11 Effected to Shelter 16 4 What is the strom? A storm is any disturbed state of an environment or astronomical body's atmosphere especially affecting its surface, and strongly implying severe weather. It may be marked by significant disruptions to normal conditions such as strong wind, hail, thunder and lightning (a thunderstorm), heavy precipitation (snowstorm, rainstorm), heavy freezing rain (ice storm), strong winds (tropical cyclone, windstorm), or wind transporting some substance through the atmosphere as in a dust storm, blizzard, sandstorm, etc. Storms generally lead to negative impacts on lives and property such as storm surge, heavy rain or snow (causing flooding or road impassibility), lightning, wildfires, and vertical wind shear; however, systems with significant rainfall can alleviate drought in places they move through. Heavy snowfall can allow special recreational activities to take place which would not be possible otherwise, such as skiing and snowmobiling. Storms are created when a center of low pressure develops with a system of high pressure surrounding it. This combination of opposing forces can create winds and result in the formation of storm clouds, such as the cumulonimbus. Small localized areas of low pressure can form from hot air rising off hot ground, resulting in smaller disturbances such as dust devils and whirlwinds.There are many varieties and names for storms for example: Hailstorm / Blizzard / Snowstorm / Ocean Storm / Tropical cyclone / Tornado - http://cdni.wired.co.uk/1240x826/s_v/S torm-2--Wired-19sep13_REX_MarkoKorosec_b_1240x826.jpg - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm 5 Tropical cyclone or cyclone. What's the difference? Hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are all the same weather phenomenon; we just use different names for these storms in different places. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, the term “hurricane” is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a “typhoon” and “cyclones” occur in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. The ingredients for these storms include a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds. If the right conditions persist long enough, they can combine to produce the violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains, and floods we associate with this phenomenon. In the Atlantic, hurricane season officially runs June 1 to November 30. However, while 97 percent of tropical activity occurs during this time period, there is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months. A tropical cyclone is a generic term used by meteorologists to describe a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation. Once a tropical cyclone reaches maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, it is then classified as a hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone depending upon where the storm originates in the world. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html 6 How the Cyclone Nargis come from? In the last week of April 2008, an area of deep convection persisted near a low-level circulation in the Bay of Bengal. With good outflow and low wind shear, the system slowly organized as its circulation consolidated. On 27 April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified the system as a depression, and nine hours later the system intensified into a deep depression. At the same time, the Typhoon Warning Center classified it as Tropical Cyclone 01B. With a ridge to its north, the system tracked slowly north-northwestward as banding features improved. At 5:30 AM Indian Standard Time, on 28 April, Tropical Cyclone 01B upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm Nargis . A once-in-500-year event for Myanmar? Tropical cyclones are uncommon in Myanmar, which has had only six Category 1 or stronger storms since 1970, and eleven since 1948. Nargis is the third strongest cyclone on record to hit Myanmar, and the deadliest and most damaging. The previous highest death toll from a tropical cyclone in Myanmar was 187, during the Category 1 storm that hit on May 7, 1975. Nargis is the first major tropical cyclone to hit Myanmar since Category 3 Cyclone Mala hit on April 28, 2006. Mala hit a less populated area less prone to storm surge, and killed 22 people and damaged 6000 buildings. It is remarkable that no other tropical cyclone over the past 300 years has hit the Irrawaddy Delta and caused major loss of life. An unusually strong and far-southward extending trough of low pressure turned Nargis to the east much farther south than is the norm for the North Indian Ocean. In the pre-1970 years, there is only one hurricane-force storm recorded to have hit Burma, a Category 1 cyclone in 1936 that killed 36 people. A significant cyclone hitting the Irrawaddy Delta causing thousands of deaths would very likely have been recorded, had this happened any time in the past 300 7 years. Such events were recorded in both India and Bangladesh during that period. Nargis appears to have been the only major tropical cyclone to hit the Irrawaddy River Delta in recorded history, and may be a once-in-500-year event. Picture. Visible satellite image of Nargis shortly before landfall. Image credit:NASA. http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Cyclone2008Burma.html 8 Effected to Nature 1 Impact on natural resources and biodiversity The loss and damage of mangrove forests as a result of Nargis is particularly critical, which affected about 16,800 ha (41,514 acres) of natural forest and 21,000 ha (51,892 acres) of forest plantations.1 Surveys by Maung Maung Thanindicated significant destruction of mangroves in the direct path of the cyclone and in adjacent areas. Defoliation and damage to branches ranged from 38.9 to 55.6 percent and damage to crowns was between 12.8 and 19.8 percent. Uprooting of trees was notably higher in the direct path of the storm (56.7 percent) than elsewhere (4.2 percent) In addition, the author carried out surveys of mangrove plantations consisting of six to nine year old trees to examine how different mangrove species were affected by the cyclone. His conclusion was that three mangrove species – Rhizophora apiculata, Sonneratia apetala and Avicennia officinalis – were more susceptible to storm damage than three others – Bruguiera sexangula, Avicennia marina and Heritieria fomes. The loss of both natural and plantation trees has significant implications for the environment and livelihoods in the Ayeyarwady Delta. Mangroves are an important source of subsistence and income for local communities, particularly for landless labourers, through the collection of firewood, production of charcoal, and the harvesting of fisheries as well as material for shelter. They also serve as natural barriers to surges and floods and as fish breeding grounds. The maintenance of these different values (economic, social, biodiversity conservation) is therefore critical to supporting livelihoods, reducing disaster risks and increasing resilience through an improved ability for postdisaster recovery. 2 Impact on livelihoods and basic needs 9 The environmental damage caused by Nargis in turn has had adverse effects on local livelihoods. The storm surge resulted in salinisation of agricultural lands and increased soil erosion and degradation, leading to production losses. Food security has therefore become a major problem for the survivors, who have increasingly turned to subsistence fisheries, especially during the early recovery phase. The sustainability of local fisheries is therefore a key issue. The storm surge also contaminated groundwater sources, affecting the quality and safety of drinking water. Salinisation of groundwater has aggravated prevailing problems in water supply due to ingression by seawater as a result of climate change-induced rise in sea levels In addition to affecting forest resources, Nargis caused damage to wetland and coastal ecosystems, many of which provide important habitats for wildlife such as birds and crocodiles. For example, the estuarine island of Meinmahla Kyun in the Ayeyarwady Delta is a reserved forest and a wildlife sanctuary, and hosts a number of reptile species including the estuarine crocodile Crocodylus porosus, mammals such as Panthera tigris, P. pardus, Cuon alpinus, Lutra sp and Elephasmaximus, as well as resident and migratory birds Learning from Cyclone Nargis – A Case Study http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/nargis_case_study.pdf 3 Increased vulnerability to natural hazards The devastating impacts of Cyclone Nargis on the environment and livelihood base of local communities have increased people’s vulnerability to future natural hazards. Deforestation and forest degradation as a result of Nargis, salinisation of groundwater and agricultural lands, and the loss of property pose major challenges to recovery efforts. Loss of income from natural resources as well as 10 building materials for shelter signify that capacities of local communities to cope with and respond to the cyclone’s impacts are significantly compromised, which makes them more vulnerable to future disasters. This increased vulnerability to natural hazards is compounded by underlying risk factors which exacerbate disaster impacts. These risks are driven by the prevailing environmental degradation in the region. Inadequate environmental governance both at the national and sub-national levels further contribute to poor resource management practices. In addition, climate change has the potential to increase disaster vulnerability in the region, as a result of rising sea levels as well as increased frequency and magnitude of natural hazards. The next section elaborates on these issues. Learning from Cyclone Nargis – A Case Study http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/nargis_case_study.pdf 11 Effected to population Statistical population is a set of entities concerning which statistical inferencesare to be drawn, often based on a random sample taken from the population. For example, if we were interested in generalizations about crows, then we would describe the set of crows that is of interest. Notice that if we choose a population like all crows, we will be limited to observing crows that exist now or will exist in the future. Probably, geography will also constitute a limitation in that our resources for studying crows are also limited. Population is also used to refer to a set of potential measurements or values, including not only cases actually observed but those that are potential observable. Suppose, for example, we are interested in the set of all adult crows now alive in the county of Cambridgeshire, and we want to know the mean weight of these birds. For each bird in the population of crows there is a weight, and the set of these weights is called the population of weights. Biological population is defined as the whole number of inhabitants occupying an area (such as a country or the world) and continually being modified by increases (births and immigrations) and losses (deaths and emigrations). As with any biological population, the size of a human population is limited by the supply of food, the effect of diseases, and other environmental factors. Human populations are further affected by social customs governing reproduction and by the technological developments, especially in medicine and public health, that have reduced mortality and extended the life span. http://global.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/470303/population http://animals.about.com/cs/zoology/a/zoo101ae.htm 12 http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/center-for-refugee-anddisaster-response/research/burma_cyclone/map1hires.jpg Topography of Myanmar, with track of Cyclone Nargis superimposed. Image credit: NASA. 13 Populations and Areas at Risk Regions and populations vulnerable to the cyclone were estimated using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based models that were subsequently overlaid with spatially distributed population data. Geographic vulnerability models were based on storm path, estimated storm surge derived from the cyclone data, and elevation. Models included all townships within 250 kilometers of the hurricane path, and yielded an affected area of more than 10,000 square kilometers. Spatially distributed population data for at-risk areas from the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) at CIESIN, Columbia University, were overlaid with GIS-based vulnerability models and aggregated to estimate the affected population. Vulnerability was approximated by a score that reflects proportion of land area and population at risk. Overall, an estimated 3.2 million people were affected by Cyclone Nargis, the majority of which were in Ayeyarwady (1.8 million) and Yangon (1.1 million) administrative divisions; at least 100,000 people in both the Bago East and Mon divisions were also affected. Overall, 20 percent of the population in the four divisions was affected by the cyclone, with Ayeyarwady Division being hardest hit, with an estimated 36 percent of the population affected. The townships with the highest vulnerability scores are illustrated in the map below; however, it is important to note this is a relative measure based on proportion of land area affected. The greatest impact is anticipated in the areas where the storm first made landfall, notably the townships of Labutta and Bogale, where over 200,000 people are thought to have been affected. http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/center-forrefugee-and-disasterresponse/research/burma_cyclone/burma_cyclone.html 14 15 http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/center-for-refugee-and-disasterresponse/research/burma_cyclone/charts.pdf 16 Shelter (By an effect of Nargis) Myanmar is the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia with a total land area of 676,578 square km (261,228 square miles) and a population of 51.5 million. Its long coastline of about 2,000 km covers almost the entire east coast of the Bay of Bengal. As a country prone to heavy rainfall,floods occur regularly during the mid-monsoon period (June to August) in areas traversed by rivers or large streams. The country is also prone to cyclones, landslides, earthquakes, tsunami, fire and drought. http://www.operationworld.org/files/ow/maps/lgmap/myan-MMAP-md.png 17 Some information about the Cyclone Nargis. Nargis, a category 3 cyclone, struck Myanmar on 2 and 3 May 2008, making landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division, approximately 250 km (155 miles) southwest of Yangon. The cyclone affected more than 50 townships, mainly in Yangon and Ayeyarwady Divisions, including Yangon, the country’s largest city and most important commercial centre. With wind speeds of up to 200 km per hour (124 miles/hour) and accompanied by heavy rain, the cyclone caused the greatest damage in the Ayeyarwady Delta region. The effects of extreme winds in this area were compounded by a 3.6 m (12 foot) storm surge. Nargis was the worst natural disaster in the history of Myanmar, and the most devastating cyclone to strike Asia since 1991. http://fotos.eluniversal.com.mx/web_img/fotogaleria/myan.jpg 18 An effect of the Cyclone Nargis to Shelter. http://media4.onsugar.com/files/upl1/19/193328/51_2008/81078276.jpg Thousands of buildings were destroyed; in the town of Labutta, in the Ayeyarwady Division, state television reported that 75 percent of buildings had collapsed and 20 percent had their roofs ripped off. One report indicated that 95 percent of buildings in the Ayeyarwady delta area were destroyed. The Ministry of Religious Affairs stated that 1,163 temples were destroyed in Ayeyarwady Division and 284 in Yangon Division. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nargis#Burma_controversy http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/nargis_case_study.pdf 19