James Spann’s Forecast Fax
Morning Edition for Saturday, May 1, 2010
More Severe Weather Ahead
Severe weather was widespread Friday night across Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois. Fatalities were reported in Arkansas, and the
Little Rock and St. Louis metropolitan areas were under the gun. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded their Day One Outlook to a high
risk just before 8 p.m. for much of Arkansas. A northward moving warm front triggered late night storms over eastern Mississippi and
western Mississippi.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS EAST TODAY: The situation that we have been seeing in the models for a week is
coming true as high pressure to our southeast strengthens and the deep trough over the Plains slows its eastward progression. A strong
flow of warm, moist air will continue to flow up into the Deep South. A battle zone will set up just to our west and edge into Alabama
today. Thunderstorms will develop in the warm, moist airmass across the South, including the western part of Alabama. Be on the
lookout for strong storms and heavy rain this afternoon into the overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their standard
risk outlook for severe weather over the northwestern third of Alabama for today, generally from Huntsville to Livingston. We will have
to increasing watch the flash flooding threat in areas which see persistent heavy rains from training thunderstorm cells, especially as we
head into Sunday.
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY: It looks like the trough will push east on Sunday, spreading rain and intense
thunderstorms into Alabama. It could be a very active weather day, with widespread strong storms and very heavy rainfall into the
nighttime hours.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is beginning to indicate that the rain and storms will still be pushing slowly eastward across Alabama on
Monday, finally exiting Central Alabama Monday night. This will set the state for a dry week until another system brings more rain to
Alabama Friday night into the weekend.
WEATHERBRAINS: We had an extended discussion about last weekend’s severe weather outbreak and a visit from Author John
M. Barry on this week’s show. This week, Sheldon Kussellson, a weather satellite expert from NOAA will discuss the latest and
greatest, as well as future developments in that part of weather forecasting. Dr. Josh Durkee from Western Kentucky University will join
the panel as well. Listen at www.WeatherBrains.com or subscribe on iTunes. It’s free.
ON THIS DATE IN 1857: The Washington Evening Star published the first national weather roundup. Observations from 19
telegraph stations collected by volunteers who were part of the Smithsonian Institution’s cooperative network. Follow my weather
history tweets. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.
- Bill Murray
Today’s Forecast by the Hour
Time
7am
8am
9am
10am
11am
Noon
1pm
2pm
3pm
4pm
5pm
6pm
7pm
8pm
9pm
10pm
11pm
Sky
Cloudy
Cloudy
Cloudy
Cloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
PCloudy
Cloudy
Cloudy
Cloudy
Cloudy
Cloudy
Temp
71
73
75
77
79
81
82
83
83
82
81
80
79
77
75
73
72
DP
68
69
69
69
69
70
70
70
69
69
69
68
68
68
68
68
68
Wind
SE-10
SE-11
SE-12
S-13
S-13
S-14
S-14
S-14
S-14
S-14
S-13
S-13
S-12
S-12
S-11
S-11
S-12
POP
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
30%
40%
50%
50%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
30%
30%
82
71
Birmingham Yesterday:
84
High 81 Low 59 Rain: 0.00”
81 83
82 71 71
8246
4
0
79
76
Birmingham Today:
High
Low
Normal Record
78
92 (1901)
53
38 (1908)
B’ham Rain Update:
Apr: 5.30” 2010 19.36”
Deficit for 2010: 1.07”
Yesterday’s Highs
Lake Levels
Gadsden
Lay
Logan Martin
Martin
Smith
Weiss
507.8↓
395.5↓
463.6→
489.3→
510.9↑
562.3↓
Tonight on ABC 33/40!
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7:00pm Meet the Fockers
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10:35pm Grey’s Anatomy
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James Spann’s Forecast Fax
Morning Edition for Saturday, May 1, 2010
e
TODAY
SUNDAY
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
Warm, humid and
breezy. A few
storms by afternoon.
Some of them could
be strong to severe,
especially
northwest.
Windy, muggy and
warm with showers
and storms
becoming likely.
Heavy rain and
severe weather
possible.
Rain and storms end
from the west.
Partly sunny. A
slight chance of a
shower or storm.
Partly cloudy skies.
High 83
Low 69
High 82
Low 70
High 81
Low 61
High 81
Low 59
High 83
Low 59
S 15-25
SW/W 7-14
N 6-12
E/SE 6-12
35%
50%
60%
Wind
S 10-20
Percentage Of Available Sunshine
45%
20%
Hours Of Precipitation
1
4
2
1/2
0
Rainfall Potential
0.45”
2.25”
1.25”
0.20”
0.00”
Severe Weather Risk
Slight
Slight
None
None
None
Long Range Outlook: Looks like more heavy rain around the 14th and 15th for Alabama.
ABC33/40 Weather Blog Highlights: Alabamawx.com
Welcome to May!
The fifth month of the year is one of my favorites in Central Alabama. We see some of the finest weather
of the year, with runs of fine, warm and sunshine filled days. It reminds me a lot of October, its closest cousin,
but generally warmer and somewhat stormier. The average percentage of possible sunshine is 66 percent, equal to
October, which is the other sunniest month of the year.
The average high and low for the month in Birmingham is 81F and 59F respectively. At the start of the
month, the average high is 78F, but it rises to 84F by the end of the month. Overnight lows really warm, rising
from 53F on May 1st to 62F on the 31st. The coldest may reading ever in the Magic City is 36F on May 4, 1971.
The warmest reading ever in May was 99F on May 28, 1962 and May 29, 1898. It generally reaches 90F or
warmer 1.7 days in the month.
Heating degree days are nearly zero in May, but cooling degree days are starting to really rise as we head
toward the unrelenting heat of summer.
May used to be a drier month than April. Until 2003 that is. 5.71 inches of rain fell on the 7th that month,
which skewed the average higher. The average May rainfall at the Birmingham Airport jumped from 4.4 inches to
4.83 inches because of that single event. A tremendous flash flooding event occurred across Central Alabama that
day, with higher amounts reported just northeast of the Airport. 10.50 inches of rain fell on Edwards Lake Road
and JB Elliott recorded 9.82 inches just northeast of Trussville. Not surprisingly, May 2003 went on to become
the wettest fifth month with 17.22 inches of rain. It usually rains on 10 days on average, and storms occur on 9
days. The average dewpoint is starting to climb, rising from 49F in April to 58F in May.
Follow my daily weather history tweets on Twitter @wxhistorian.