WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
OBSERVATIONS, RESEARCH AND SERVICES
Sixth session
Reykjavik, Iceland, 8 - 11 September 2015
EC-PHORS-6/Doc.3.2(2)
Submitted by: T. Jung, M. Sparrow
Date: 13 August 2015
AGENDA ITEM:3.2
RESEARCH
WWRP Polar Prediction Project and WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative
(Submitted by International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, and
WCRP Planning Office)
SUMMARY
This document is a joint progress report on the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and the
WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) since the report of the EC-PORS-5 meeting
(Wellington, New Zealand, 25-28 February 2014).
ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED:
To note progress on the WWRP Polar Prediction Project, the short-term prediction research
component of GIPPS and the complementary WCRP Polar Climate Initiative that is the
longer-term prediction component of GIPPS.
DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED:
 To note and comment as appropriate on the progress of the WWRP Polar Prediction
Project and the WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative

To provide guidance for the further development of the YOPP, including proposed
revisions of the Implementation Plan, in consideration of the outcomes of the YOPP
Summit

To seek assistance in promoting and maintaining momentum in these initiatives

To identify ways how GIPPS in general, and YOPP in particular can be brought to the
attention of national and international funding agencies, including mobilization of
resources for the PPP and PCPI Trust Funds.
REFERENCES:
1. Canziani, P.O., A. O'Neill, R. Schofield, M. Raphael, G. J. Marshall, and G. Redaelli,
2014: World Climate Research Programme Special Workshop on Climatic Effects of
Ozone Depletion in the Southern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, ES101–
ES105.
2. Jung, T., F. Doblas-Reyes, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, C. Bitz, C. Buontempo, R.
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 2
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Caballero, E. Jakobson, J. Jungclaus, M. Karcher, T. Koenigk, D. Matei, J. Overland, T.
Spengler, and S. Yang, 2015: Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and
climate prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00018.1, in press.
Raphael, M.N., G.J. Marshall, J. Turner, R. Fogt, D. Schneider, D.A. Dixon, J.S. Hosking,
J.M. Jones, W.R. Hobbs, 2015: The Amundsen Sea low: Variability change and impact
on Antarctic Climate, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00121.1, in press.
Stroeve, J, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Guemas, V. Howell, S. Massonnet, F, and
Tietsche, S, 2015: Improving predictions of Arctic sea ice extent, EOS, 96,
doi:10.1029/2015EO031431
Swart, N. C., J. C. Fyfe, E. Hawkins, J.E. Kay and A. Jahn, 2015: Influence of internal
variability on Arctic sea-ice trends, Nature Climate Change, 5, 86-89.
WMO, 2014: WWRP Polar Prediction Project - Implementation Plan for the Year of Polar
Prediction (YOPP), WWRP/PPP No. 3 – 2014, 53pp., available via PPP Website
WMO, 2015 (in production): Meeting Report of the WWRP Year of Polar Prediction
(YOPP) Summit, 13-15 July 2015, Geneva, Switzerland, WWRP/PPP No. 4 – 2015,
available via PPP Website
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 3
WWRP Polar Prediction Project and
WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative
1. WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP), including Year of Polar Prediction
(YOPP)
Introduction
1.1 There has been a great deal of progress on the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), a
key initiative of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). This document includes
developments since EC-PORS-5 (Wellington, New Zealand, 25-28 February 2014).
Further information including reports of the Steering Group, the YOPP Planning
Meetings, the YOPP Summit (Geneva, Switzerland, 13-15 July 2015), as well as news of
ongoing related news and developments, can be found at the PPP Website:
www.polarprediction.net
1.2 The YOPP Implementation Plan (version 1.0) was finalised, published by WMO and
released externally in October 2014 (available at PPP Website). There will be
modifications and updates to parts of the Plan to take into account of recommendations
and other outcomes from the YOPP Summit (July 2015), and in particularly its updated
Activity Contribution Table of planned contributions to YOPP that satisfy the
endorsement criteria. A version 2.0 is expected to be completed by the end of 2015.
1.3 Some changes have taken place in the membership of the PPP Steering Group. We
gratefully acknowledge the contributions made by the parting members, including:
Marika Holland and Francesco Doblas-Reyes, and warmly welcome the new members,
who include: Alexander Makshtas, Matthieu Chevallier and Qinghua Yang. An updated
list is found in Annex 1 of this document, as well as at PPP Website, at the “Steering
Group” tab.
1.4 Helge Goessling was appointed Director of the PPP International Coordination office
(ICO) on 1st October 2014. He joined Thomas Jung, chairperson of the PPP Steering
Group, and Stefanie Klebe at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Germany. Neil Gordon
continued to support the ICO as a consultant until July 2015. At WMO, Paolo Ruti was
appointed as Chief of the World Weather Research Division in mid-2014, and became
responsible for the PPP. In early 2015, Peter Chen commenced his support to the YOPP
planning as a WMO consultant.
PPP Steering Group (SG) and YOPP Planning Meetings
1.5 The YOPP Planning Group held its second meeting (YPM-2) that focussed on
observations, was hosted by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (Helsinki, Finland, 8
April 2014). It was held in close association with the Arctic Science Summit Week, and
Arctic Observing Summit. The main purpose of the meeting was to gain feedback on the
observational aspects of the then current draft YOPP Implementation Plan, and to work
towards more detailed and concrete contributions to YOPP’s observational components.
Among other things, the meeting:
 Reviewed and provided input to the Implementation Plan;
 Had a series of presentations from partners about their activities and possible
contributions to YOPP:
o Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) /CryoNet
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 4
o Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observation System (SIOS)
o International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA)
o Ice, Climate, and Economics – Arctic Research on Change (ICE-ARC)
o International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG)
o MOSAiC o Met Office UK o British Antarctic Survey (BAS)
o Met Norway o Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), Russia o National
Institute of Polar Research (NiPR), Japan
o NOAA
In addition to YPM-2, Thomas Jung participated as a member of a panel on stakeholders
in the Arctic Observing System, and at a Town Hall Meeting on the Polar Prediction
Project on 9 April following the YPM-2.
1.6 The fifth Steering Group meeting (SG-5), including the third YOPP Planning Meeting
(YPM-3), was held in Montreal, Canada, 21-23 August 2014. It was stressed that the
project was moving into a new phase, from its first phase dedicated to drafting plans and
documents (Implementation Plan, Science Plan, YOPP Plan, White Papers, etc.), to
focus more strongly on promoting and implementing the plans. Another important aspect
of this new phase is to ensure alignment and coordination with other activities. The full
report of SG-5 can be found on the PPP Website, under the “Document/Report” tab.
1.7 The sixth Steering Group meeting (SG-6, Geneva, Switzerland, 15-16 July 2015)
was held immediately following the YOPP Summit. Chairperson Thomas Jung outlined
that the main goal was to analyse and draw from the presentations and discussions that
took place during the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Summit, and to decide on urgent
actions and follow-up steps. Discussions focused on the following main issue themes:
Intensive Observing Periods, MOSAiC, YOPP Endorsement Process, Strengthening the
Antarctic Component, Pre-YOPP Subcommittees and Workshops, Rolling Review of
Requirements (Observations), and Keeping the Momentum from the Summit. The
PPP’s three High Priority Activities were also reviewed, including on: Sea-ice prediction,
Education, and Societal-Economic Research and Application (PPP-SERA). The meeting
report can be found on the PPP Website, under the “Document/Report” tab.
1.8 The seventh meeting of the Steering Group is planned to take place 23-25 May
2016. At the kind invitation of China, it will be convened at the National Marine and
Environmental Forecasting Centre (NMEFC), Beijing, China.
YOPP Summit, Geneva, Switzerland, 13-15 July 2015
1.9 The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Summit was attended by 120 participants from
23 nations, including scientists, stakeholders, as well as representatives from
operational weather and climate prediction centres, international bodies and funding
agencies. The Summit represented a major high-level event in the further planning of the
YOPP.
Opening statements were made by WMO representatives including David Grimes,
President of WMO, and Thomas Jung, the chairperson of the WWRP Polar Prediction
Project Steering Group, on the strategic and global relevance of enhanced polar
predictive capacity, as well as the present level of planning as outlined in the YOPP
Implementation Plan. This was followed by a number of keynote presentations in the
following YOPP key areas:
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 5





User-relevant aspects,
YOPP observing component,
YOPP modelling, data assimilation and forecasting component,
YOPP data component, and
YOPP education and outreach component,
A total of 26 representatives from partners such as international programmes,
institutions and space agencies presented their support for, and expectations of YOPP,
made suggestions on how they could contribute, and provided specific
recommendations. These presentations were followed by discussions and formulation
of recommendations in breakout groups (BOG) on the above-noted YOPP key areas
along with the additional topic of YOPP funding.
The Summit finished with a plenary session that included statements from funding
agencies, the presentation of BOG reports, and a general discussion on major issues
and actions required. It was also highlighted that the outcomes of the Summit will be
used to update the YOPP Implementation Plan (from version 1.0 to 2.0) in autumn 2015.
The Summit was closed following a short wrap-up and a brief overview of the next step
including and outline of the post-Summit process.
Immediately following the Summit, the sixth meeting of the PPP Steering Group was
held at WMO Headquarters, to analyse and consider the key issues and follow-up.
The comprehensive meeting report of the YOPP Summit, including its
recommendations, is available via the PPP Website.
Other Related Activities
1.10 The members of the PPP Steering Group, and the International Coordination Office
actively participated in various activities and events, to both seek important international
and national partners, and promote collaboration in the PPP, particularly in the planning
of YOPP. Workshops and dedicated sessions were convened, as well as educational
and outreach related events were conducted. Future activities are being planned, which
are posted on the PPP Website at the “News” tab. These activities are briefly described
in Annex 2 of this document.
2. WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI)
http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wcrp/pcpi
Introduction
2.1 The WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) aims to advance
understanding of the sources of polar climate predictability on timescales ranging from
seasonal to multi-decadal. Polar predictability stems from the unique persistence of
signals in ice and snow and through exchange with the ocean at all depths and with the
stratosphere. PCPI is concerned with the success of modelling and observing the rapid
changes seen in the Arctic and the mixed, slow and fast changes occurring in the
Antarctic. PCPI is investigating the role of the poles in global climate and prediction.
2.2 An implementation plan for PCPI arose from a pair of workshops in 2010 and 2012,
defining six themes. The WCRP JSC agreed to designate PCPI as a sub-initiative of the
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 6
“Melting Ice and Global Consequences” Grand Challenge: A cross-cutting Initiative, with
especially close ties to CliC and SPARC. Two champions were chosen for each of the
six themes (see 2.5) to comprise a PCPI leadership committee, which began organizing
activities in 2013. Half of the PCPI themes are joint with its sister programme, the Polar
Prediction Project (PPP) of the WWRP, which focuses on similar problems but at
subseasonal prediction timescales.
Achievements for 2014 & 2015
2.3 A workshop on the Amundsen Sea Low was held in Los Angeles in late 2013 and
organized by PCPI theme leaders. The workshop led to a journal review article in the
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Raphael et al., 2015).
2.4 The Sea Ice Prediction Workshop, held in Boulder, USA, with 60 attendees, in April
2014, made recommendations to improve the Sea Ice Outlook, many of which were
subsequently implemented in the summer of 2014. For example, Outlook participants
were asked to provide additional diagnostics and more information about their methods.
The Outlook reports contained this additional information and it was also included in an
article with international co-authorship published in EOS (Stroeve et al., 2015). A second
workshop in this series was held in Reading, UK, with 50 attendees in April 2015.
Further recommendations were made for the Sea Ice Outlook, which are planned to be
part of a proposed extension to the project. Input was gathered for the Year of Polar
Prediction (YOPP) Summit meeting, which took place in July 2015. Although the Sea Ice
Outlook was originally developed as a US initiative, PCPI is internationalizing the
activity. “Town-hall” style meetings on sea ice prediction with about 35-40 attendees
were held at AGU to plan coordinated experiments.
2.5 The first pan-PCPI leadership meeting was held in Boulder, USA, in April 2014.
Plans and goals were established for each of the six themes:

Theme 1: Improve knowledge and understanding of past polar climate
variations (100+ years)
Co-leads: Sarah Gille (Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, USA) and Julie Jones (University of Sheffield, UK)

Theme 2: Assess reanalyses in polar regions
Co-leads: Dave Bromwich
(Ohio State University, USA) and Jim Renwick (Victoria University, New
Zealand)

Theme 3: Improve understanding of polar predictability on seasonal to
decadal timescales
Co-Leads: Ed Hawkins (University of Reading, UK)
and John Fyfe (CCCma, Canada)

Theme 4: Assess performance of CMIP5 models in polar regions
Coleads: Hugues Goosse (Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium) and
Jennifer Kay (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)

Theme 5: Model error
Co-leads: Gunilla Svensson (Stockholm
University, Sweden) and Markus Jochum (University of Copenhagen,
Denmark).
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 7

Theme 6: Improve understanding of how jets and non-zonal circulation
couple to the rest of the system in the Southern Hemisphere
Co-leads:
Marilyn Raphael (UCLA, USA) and Gareth Marshall (British Antarctic
Survey, UK)
2.6 A subset of the participants wrote a journal article titled “Influence of internal
variability on Arctic sea-ice trends” (Swart et al, 2015), which is in-press for Nature
Climate Change (see Fig. 1).
Figure 1. Seven-year trends in observed Arctic September sea ice extent can be highly variable.
2.7 An international workshop on “Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather
and climate predictions” was held in Barcelona, Spain, in December 2014. The meeting
was joint with PPP. A report and set of recommendations were published in a BAMS
article (Jung et al., 2015).
2.8 PCPI sponsored a session on the “Southern Ocean: Circulation and Carbon Cycle”
in a US CLIVAR and OCB workshop titled “Ocean’s carbon and heat uptake:
Uncertainties and metrics” in San Francisco, Dec. 2014.
2.9 PCPI leads organized sessions on “Polar Climate Mechanisms and Predictability” at
the Fall AGU in San Francisco, in Dec. 2014, at EGU in Vienna, in April 2015, and on
“Polar Amplification” at the IUGG meeting in Prague, in July 2015.
2.10 A workshop titled “Large-scale climate variability in Antarctica and the Southern
Ocean over decades-to-centuries, and links to extra-polar climate”, was held in San
Diego, USA, in March 2015. The workshop was joint with PAGES.
2.11 Several PCPI leads attended the Year of Polar Prediction Summit, in Reading, UK,
in July 2015, which was organized by PPP. We contributed materials to a presentation
from the WCRP.
Future PCPI Plans
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 8
2.12 The second pan-PCPI leadership meeting will be held in Reading, UK, in
September 2015. Plans and goals will be discussed and assessed. A third workshop on
sea ice prediction is being planned for May 2016 to be held in Lamont, New York.
2.13 A workshop on Polar Feedbacks has been proposed and is being organized.
2.14 A session on the role of jets and non-zonal circulation for the Antarctic will be held
at the 2015 International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and
Oceanography in Chile, in October 2015.
2.15 A Polar Prediction School will be held in Abisko, Sweden, in April 2016. This is joint
with PPP and the Bolin Center.
3. Issues and actions
The EC-PHORS is invited to note the continuing progress of the PPP and PCPI, and
consider the issues and actions in its guidance on PPP and PCPI.
3.1 Polar Prediction Project
 Review draft version of the YOPP Implementation Plan 2.0, once it will become
available in October 2015;
 Contribute to the planning and implementation of YOPP, following the
recommendations of the YOPP Summit and what is outlined in the YOPP
Implementation Plan 2.0
 Assist in promoting YOPP with national and international funding agencies.
3.2 Polar Climate Predictability Initiative
 The resources received from the Trust Fund has been essential to the activities
of the PCPI. It has supported travel for the PCPI theme leads to attend the
leadership meetings and for early-career scientists to attend workshops
sponsored by PCPI. Maintaining enthusiasm and the ability to attend workshops
among all of our participants in this time of shrinking research support is critical.
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 9
Annex 1 - Polar Prediction Project Steering Group (SG) Members
Chairperson
Thomas Jung, Bremerhaven, Germany, thomas.jung@awi.de
Members
Peter Bauer, Reading, UK, p.bauer@ecmwf.int
David Bromwich, Columbus, OH, USA, bromwich@polarmet1.mps.ohiostate.edu
Matthieu Chevallier, Toulouse, France, matthieu.chevalier@meteo.fr
Jonathan Day, Reading, UK, j.j.day@reading.ac.uk
Jun Inoue, Japan, inoue.jun@nipr.ac.jp
Christopher Fairall, Boulder, CO, USA, chris.fairall@noaa.gov
Trond Iversen, Norway (present affiliation, Reading, UK), trond.iversen@met.no
Aleksander Makshtas, Russia, maksh@aari.ru
Brian Mills, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, brian.mills@ec.gc.ca
Pertti Nurmi, Helsinki, Finland,
Donald Perovich, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, Donald.K.Perovich@erdc.dren.mil
Phillip Reid, Melbourne, Australia, P.Reid@bom.gov.au
Ian Renfrew, Norwich, UK, i.renfrew@uea.ac.uk
Gregory Smith, Dorval, Québec, Canada, gregory.smith@ec.gc.ca
Gunilla Svensson, Stockholm, Sweden, gunilla@misu.su.se
Mikhail Tolstykh, Moscow, Russia, tolstykh@inm.ras.ru
Qinghua Yang, Beijing, China, yqh1983@hotmail.com
Former members or participants
Francisco Javier DoblasReyes, Barcelona, Spain, f.doblasreyes@ic3.cat
Marika Holland, Boulder, USA, mholland@ucar.edu
WMO Consultant Neil Gordon, Otaki, NZ, neil.d.gordon@gmail.com
Peter Lemke, Bremerhaven, Germany, peter.lemke@awi.de
Scientific and administrative support
Helge Goessling, Bremerhaven, Germany, helge.goessling@awi.de
WMO Consultant Peter Chen, peterchen1974@gmail.com
Stefanie Klebe, Bremerhaven, Germany, stefanie.klebe@awi
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 10
Annex 2 – Activities of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project Steering Group and
International Coordination Office
1. Thomas Jung took part in the 29th session of the WWRP/WCRP Working Group on
Numerical Experimentation (WGNE-29, Melbourne, Australia, 10-13 March 2014). He
discussed support by WGNE for the PPP and for the YOPP initiative. The actions from
meeting, found at:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/about/sec/rescrosscut/documents/WGNE_29_Report_Final.pdf
include the following:
 Modelling centres to conduct systematic comparisons of analyses over Polar Regions;
 WGNE to provide advice on observation strategies for model development / verification
during YOPP including the relative value of single point versus grid box approaches.
2. The WMO Bulletin (Volume 63(1), April 2014), includes an article on the Polar Prediction
Project co-authored by Neil Gordon, Thomas Jung and Stefanie Klebe, and available online
at: https://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/bulletin_en/archive/63_1/Bulletin6312014_PolarPrediction_en.html
3. NOAA held a Science Challenge Workshop on “Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate
and Related Impacts: Status and Requirements for Progress” (Boulder, U.S.A., 13-15 May
2014. The PPP was well represented by SG members David Bromwich, Chris Fairall and
Marika Holland. The report is at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/events/2014/arcticpredictions-science/pdf/arctic-prediction-workshopreport.v1.pdf . Amongst the over-arching
recommendations from the workshop was for NOAA to: “Participate vigorously in the WMO
WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP), particularly in efforts related to the Year of Polar
Prediction Project (YOPP)”.
4. A dedicated session on the WWRP Polar Prediction Project was held at the World
Weather Open Science Conference (Montreal, Canada, August 2014). The session was
convened by the PPP SG members Thomas Jung and Peter Bauer. A white paper has been
prepared for this occasion and is available at:
http://mywwosc14.zerista.com/page/member?page_id=530.
5. Steering Group member Philip Reid attended the 33rd SCAR Delegates’ meeting
(Auckland, New Zealand, 1-3 September 2014) as an observer. Delegates from 39 Antarctic
related countries were present for the three days of the meeting. Topics of discussion
included Horizon Scan, the International Polar Partnership Initiative, WMO activities and
PPP/YOPP. Phil Reid’s presentation to the SCAR Delegates gave an initial broad overview
of PPP/YOPP, putting it into an international perspective, while focussing more closely on
Antarctica in some areas and in the discussion in particular.
6. A subgroup of the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG) met to focus on
developing automated data assimilation and modelling systems (Toulouse, France, 5-16
September 2014). SG member Greg Smith presented an update on the PPP with a focus on
sea ice verification and the possible involvement of the IICWG in YOPP. In particular, his
proposal to hold a joint workshop on sea ice verification in boreal spring 2016 was favourably
received. The importance of securing funding for YOPP was noted as well as past
challenges encountered when trying to engage stakeholders (e.g. the shipping community).
7. On 29 September 2014, Thomas Jung presented the PPP to funding agencies in the
U.S.A. (NSF, ONR and NOAA), at the offices of the National Science Foundation in
Arlington. The PPP was very well received by the agencies and it turned out the NOAA
Science Challenge workshop in Boulder (May 2014, see above) had already generated
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 11
considerable visibility for and interest in PPP. As well, Thomas Jung presented an update on
PPP at the 4th meeting of the Polar Satellite Task Group at NASA Goddard Space Flight
Centre in Greenbelt, Maryland. It was agreed that the PSTG and PPP SG jointly develop a
document highlighting the satellite requirements for PPP/YOPP putting emphasis on
dedicated satellite products.
8. Helge Goessling presented the PPP and YOPP at the 3rd Workshop of the Forum for
Arctic Modelling and Observations Synthesis (Woods Hole, Mass., U.S.A., 22–24 October
2014). The meeting generally expressed a keen interest in PPP and YOPP. It was suggested
to analyse and compare the 7-day sea-ice forecasting skill of the currently available
operational products from the U.S., Canada, and Norway, to establish a baseline against
which future progress can be measured. Furthermore it was agreed that PPP
representatives send a letter to support the continuation of NASA’s bi-polar IceBridge
mission beyond the launch of ICESat-2 in 2017, at least until the end of YOPP in mid-2019.
FAMOS involvement in the planning of dedicated modelling experiments – e.g., OSSEs – still
needs to be made more concrete.
9. GODAE Oceanview (GOV) is an international body providing coordination and leadership
on the research and development of global and regional operational oceanography. Greg
Smith gave an update on YOPP at the fifth GOV meeting (Beijing, China, 13-17 October
2014). Several specific initiatives were identified regarding GOV participation in YOPP.
These include co-hosting the Sea Ice Verification Workshop planned for boreal spring 2016
(together with the IICWG and PPP), organizing a real-time sea ice forecast verification
intercomparison, as well as observing system experiments and guidance on coupled
modelling. It was also suggested that the 8th GOVST meeting (tentatively planned to be held
in Montreal in October, 2017) should have YOPP as a general theme for the meeting.
11. The WWRP-WCRP "International workshop on polar-lower latitude linkages and their
role in weather and climate prediction" took place 10-12 December 2014, in Barcelona.
Eighty experts from 20 countries met to discuss this subject of “Linkages”, which is an
important aspect of the PPP. The event was made accessible online via the GoToWebinar
platform (provided by the CliC Project Office). For details of the event, including a resumé of
the workshop, see the workshop page. A workshop report is available via the Website:
http://www.polarprediction.net/documents/other-publications.html
12. A new APECS Webinar series began with its first webinar on 2 March 2015 with the title
"Polar Weather Prediction" was introduced by Professor Dr. Thomas Jung, chair of the Polar
Prediction Project. The event was announced on the APECS Website. The presentation can
be viewed on https://vimeo.com/122323499. A second in Webinar Series, entitled “Progress
and challenges in predicting Arctic sea ice” took place on 11 May 2015. The speakers were
Cecilia Bitz (University of Washington, USA) and Julienne Stroeve (National Snow and Ice
Data Centre, University of Colorado). See: http://www.apecs.is/career-resources/apecswebinars/past-webinars.html
An IARPC-series Webinar on the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) on 17 March 2015 was
presented by PPP Steering Group members Don Perovich, Marika Hollands, and David
Bromwich. Read more at http://www.iarpccollaborations.org/events/1892
EC-PORS-6/Doc.3.2(2), p. 12
13. A first WWRP PPP/SERA meeting dedicated to Polar Prediction and YOPP was held at
the University of Ottawa (Ottawa, Canada, 12-13 March 2015), chaired by PPP SG member
Brian Mills. The objectives were to inform and consult a group of active polar social scientists
about PPP, to revisit, critique, and improve elements of the science and implementation
plans of both PPP and YOPP. The meeting agreed to form both a small formal SERA subgroup for PPP, and a broader network that could contribute at the project level of activities.
The meeting developed a draft plan of action, and a list of possible stakeholders. The report
of this meeting can be found via the Website:
http://www.polarprediction.net/documents/reports.html
14. A "Polar Predictability Workshop", was held 8-10 April 2015 at the University of Reading
(UK) on Polar climate variability and predictability, on seasonal to decadal timescales. A
follow-up workshop is being considered for May 2016. For details of the event, see
the workshop website.
15. As part of the WWRP PPP and the WCRP PCPI, a Polar Prediction School will be held at
the Abisko Field Station in Arctic Sweden, 5-15 April 2016, sponsored by the two
Programmes and the Bolin Center. This course, coordinated through Jonathan Day of the
PPP Steering Group, will provide training for 30 PhD and early career post-doctoral polar
scientists, focusing on topics such as: polar mesoscale atmospheric processes; sea ice
prediction, near term ensemble prediction, and seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and
prediction in the polar regions. The programme will combine lectures on key areas relevant
for polar prediction and a number of field observation and modelling exercises to foster an
interactive learning environment. For more information on the school,
visit http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wcrp/pcpi/meetings/abisko-pp-2016.
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