Democratic Pluralism and Unconventional Political Participation: The Case of Africa Jeff William Justice Campbellsville University jw_justice@hotmail.com Samuel S. Stanton, Jr. Grove City College ssstanton@gcc.edu Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 1-5 April 2009, Chicago, IL Democratic Pluralism and Unconventional Political Participation: The Case of Africa Russell Dalton’s Citizen Politics offers a wealth of theory regarding political culture and mass political participation. Among these is an investigation into protest politics, including the forms in which it may take and who is more likely than not to engage in such behavior. Among other things, he noted that those who adhere to post-materialist politics are among those who are most likely to protest. Other demographic factors affecting an increased likelihood of protest behavior include ideological position (the left wing is more likely to engage than the right), age (younger people are more likely, education (higher levels increase protest behavior likelihood), dissatisfaction with government (higher levels lead to increased protest activity), and group membership and party attachment (the presence of either increases protest likelihood). While Dalton’s research on mass political behavior has spawned numerous papers, articles, and books – including this one – we also note that his work limits its geopolitical concentration primarily on developed states, particularly the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. With some developing states attempting to re-establish themselves as liberal democracies, it becomes useful to determine the utility of these models beyond the industrialized states that they now cover. To be sure, even in areas where the population appears to support democratization and democratic government, there can be groups that do not support such governance and that may make efforts to derail it. Additionally, political cultures in those areas might still find democratically-unconventional means of participation to be acceptable alternatives as forms of public expression, especially if they do not have a long history of democratic governance. In this paper, we seek to extend these models to the politics of developing states, in this case those found in Africa. We concentrate on protest politics in this article, focusing on the forms of protest – or “unconventional” – political behavior, to see whether the model can be extended into developing regions. Using the Afrobarometer, we examine several African states in various stages of democratization and with varying degrees of democratic stability to test the external validity of this work. Since the most recent wave of the Afrobarometer asks only about protest marches, we will use this as our dependent variable in the models we test here. Literature Review In addition to the demographic factors noted above, Dalton’s findings illustrated one other concept that we must address here, and that is the existence of post-materialist ideology. Inglehart’s (1971, 1989, 1997, 2003); see also Inglehart & Flanagan, 1987; Abramson & Inglehart, 1987, 1995; Inglehart & Abramson, 1999) pioneering work in this area is quite wellknown, suggesting that as those living in peaceful, materially-comfortable industrialized societies are increasingly likely to adopt an ideological position that he termed “the new left,” which would emphasize societal well-being, advancement of individual participation in society, and other issues beyond the “material.” Inglehart asserted that post-materialists would not generally be found in developing societies, as those who were not materially well-to-do we were concerned with bread and butter issues such as putting food on the table, keeping a roof over their heads, and so forth. He also asserted that post-materialists would not be found within societies unless they had known peace for at least a generation, which is to say that there would need to be a generation that had never known times of struggle. Furthermore, he noted that post-materialists would always be a minority within any given industrialized society. Dalton (2008) asserted that post-materialists would be more likely to engage in unconventional political participation than materialists, largely because of their minority position. With materialists being in the majority, they should have full access to a democratic political system and its institutions through linking institutions, to include political parties, interest groups, and the media. Post-materialists, however, would have far greater difficulty accessing the formal institutions of a given political system, owing to their minority position within society. This would make it numerically difficult to gain representation in any democratic institutions, such as national parliaments, even if they were to be represented through political parties or other such linking institutions. What is painfully obvious is that unconventional participation is not entirely driven by post-materialist ideology, and there can be no doubt that such behavior does exist in developing countries. For instance, the international press reported on a high level of social unrest and violence in the wake of the disputed presidential election in Kenya in 2007, and we also have the constant barrage of stories emanating from Zimbabwe relating to continued political unrest there as a result of persistent allegations of rigging of democratic elections and political violence directed at opposition party supporters. Despite multiple criticisms of Inglehart’s theory, Dalton went with his version of it in his explanation for the factors that lead to unconventional political participation. For sake of simplicity as well as replication, we will go with it as well. Hence, it is our expectation that post-materialism will not drive the unconventional participation that does exist in Africa, even if it is present all. We are not of the opinion, despite our position on post-materialist values in the African context, that it is totally invalid. We do believe – and the prior literature supports this – that other factors that Dalton postulated as positively correlated to increasing the likelihood of unconventional behavior will continue to hold true in developing areas. We do not necessarily take the point that post-materialist attitudes are completely irrelevant, even if – as we expect – they are nearly absent. One of Inglehart’s key positions that a person on his “new left” will hold is a desire to increase people’s voice in their society. Democracy has the ability to do this, seeing as it is a pluralistic form of governance, and so we will assert that the degree of pluralism in a given polity will influence the likelihood of unconventional behavior. We will address this matter first and then turn our attention to the thrust of Dalton’s theory. Lijphart (1999) wrote that the most effective form of democratic government is one that allows a wider variety of voices, opinions, and positions to be heard. Majoritarian systems tend to stifle the people in that they only allow a scant few groupings to have access to representation in democratic institutions. Anderson and Guillory (1997, see also Griffith, Plamenatz, & Pennock, 1956; Anderson & Tverdova, 2001) built on this hypothesis and found that those who are on the losing end of democratic processes can develop negative attitudes toward democratic governance. Conversely, systems with more inclusive representational arrangements and more opportunities for government-by-consensus tend to have higher degrees of supportive attitudes toward democracy. Gurr and Moore (1997) go so far as to suggest that the mere presence of democracy can depress the likelihood of protest behavior, particularly if it is able to permeate throughout a given society. Presumably, democracy gives groups with a grievance the means of air it. When democracy is not present or it is present, but the group-at-hand does not have access to representation in it, protest behavior becomes more likely. Lindburg and Moore (2008) note that this is especially true in Africa. So long as a democratic regime is able to deliver good government and, thus, gain legitimacy, it should not have to worry about coup attempts from the military or others. Matlosa (2007) wrote that African democratization must co-exist with development, and that the entire process must be pluralistic and de-politicized in order to have any chance at success. Not everyone agrees that democracy and pluralism can be used to foster peaceful relationships. Inglehart counters the above to an extent in a work in which he notes that democratization and democracy itself is not necessarily about the expression by the masses, but rather it is a system established by and through political élites (2003). Bratton and van de Walle (1992; see also Griffith, Plamenatz, & Pennock, 1956) similarly noted that élite behavior is what drives protest politics among the masses. Whenever corruption exists among élites, it can be a catalyst to escalation of protest behavior, particularly when a political system is orchestrated in such a manner – such as a single-party system – to keep those who have political power in power. Justice (2005) found that when groups lose confidence in democratic institutions and find that they have no other way to make their voices heard, they will support political organizations willing to resort to unconventional or even destructive means to promote their political agenda, particularly those on the left wing and those with post-materialist leanings. Saith (2007) also raised doubts about the benefits of democracy, asserting that there must be a “reservoir of social capital” present in order for it to successfully exist and questioning whether such a reservoir ever existed in Africa. Of particular note, Saith wrote that African democracies were protected from neither internal nor external pressures that could serve to destabilize them. Similarly, Sorenson (1993) collapsed Dahl’s eight classical criteria for democratization to solidify into three broader criteria, among those being the need for high levels of pluralism, respect for civil liberties involving free expression, and fair competition among those involved in the process. Saith doubted that such conditions could be fulfilled, as African political élites tended to exclude potential threats from political systems and stifled people’s ability to speak freely. Spiro (1994) also argues against democracy as a stabilizing force that brings peace, suggesting that neo-Kantian literature saying that democracy does equate to peace is based on flawed methodology that does not take into account a relative dearth of dyads controlling for democratic-democratic state pairings. While Spiro takes his argument from a state-as-an-actor perspective, one could draw from this the inference that having a democratic state does not guarantee internal peace, either. Skocpol (1988) wrote on international implications of internal conflict, postulating that revolutions and other forms of disruptive political participation can lead to opportunities for neighboring states, not to mention their tendency to spill over national borders. Turning now to the demographic features Dalton raised beyond ideology, much has been writing about the impact that educational levels have on political behavior. He noted that the presence of higher levels of education improved the likelihood of not only unconventional participation, but of conventional means as well, and literature examining the impact of education on political participation in developing states corroborates this theory. He also found that protest behavior tends to be the purview of younger citizens and those who claim group membership. Political efficacy, however, was not a consistently significant predictor of protest behavior, according to his work. As a point-in-case, Nayek (1970) examined the political situation in India during the 1960s, with an emphasis on the behavior of university students. He found that educational levels do correlate to increased political awareness and desire to take the political initiative, and that pluralistic, inclusive discussions regarding political institutions lessened the likelihood of protest behavior among student populations. Speaking in the African context, Wade (2007) argued that education is critical for democratic government to succeed, in that it builds a sense of trust in others, which leads, in turn, to a greater faith in democracy and its institutions. Hypotheses Based on previous research on unconventional political behavior and consideration of the African context, we offer nine (9) hypotheses. These hypotheses consider the dynamics of the relationship between various factors of democratic pluralism and unconventional political behavior. Pacific democratic society requires citizens understand democracy, participate in democratic behaviors, believe in the efficacy of political competition, be generally satisfied with democracy, and agree that laws are generally useful means of governing and solving societal problems. So, in addition to offering a number of hypotheses, we group them according to these principals. As we mentioned earlier we are considering protest behavior as the primary means of unconventional participation, and this serves as the dependent phenomenon in our hypotheses. We fully recognize that other forms of unconventional political participation exist, upto and including violent political behavior. However, we choose to focus our work on the highest form of non-violent, unconventional political participation for two reasons. One reason is practical— namely that available data lends itself to studying this form of unconventional behavior. The second reason is we are not studying causes of violent behavior, which is studied in detail in the conflict processes, particularly civil war and ethnic conflict literature. Hypothesis one deals with understanding democracy. As people gain greater understanding of democracy and realize that greater personal liberty comes with democracy we should expect them to be more willing to engage in unconventional participation. H1: As the level of understanding democracy increases, unconventional political behavior increases. Hypothesis set two (H2) deals with participation in democratic behaviors. The primary form of participation in democracy by citizens is voting. We recognize in our hypotheses that voting is often accompanied by perception of the fairness of the election, so we test both actual voting and perception of fairness in elections. We generally regard unconventional behavior as decreasing when political participation increases. H2: Where voting increases, unconventional political behavior decreases; H2a: Where fairness of elections increases, unconventional behavior decreases. Hypothesis set three (H3) examines the perception of efficacy regarding democracy. We consider the general support for democracy among people, the perception of democracy’s extent in a country, the satisfaction with democracy, and perception of the relationship of party competition to conflict in relationship to unconventional behavior. Our general proposal in this area is when efficacy increases, unconventional behavior decreases. H3: When support for democracy increases, unconventional behavior decreases; H3a: When perceived extent of democracy increases, unconventional behavior decreases; H3b: When satisfaction with democracy increases, unconventional behavior decreases; H3c: When belief that party competition causes conflict decrease, unconventional behavior decreases. The fourth set of hypotheses (H4) considers the relationship between belief in laws as a useful source of societal governance and unconventional participation. We regard increase in belief in the usefulness of laws as causing a decrease in unconventional behavior. Two treatments of this phenomenon are observed; one that people believe they must obey laws, and also that people believe in increased solution to societal problems based on legal solutions. H4: If people believe they must obey the law, unconventional political behavior decreases; H4a: When belief in lawful solutions increases, unconventional political behavior decreases. Data and Models We apply a modified version of the Afrobarometer to test our hypotheses.1 This survey includes 25,397 participants from 18 Sub-Saharan countries and was completed in the years 2000-2008.2 The probability of inclusion was weighted by proportionality of the population of the country from which a respondent is drawn to the overall population of the 18 countries from which the sample population is drawn.3 We create four sets of models each with the same dependent variable, but considering the different sets of independent variables. Unconventional political behavior is represented by participation in political demonstrations and protests and is measured in an ordinal scale. We therefore apply ordered logistic regression modeling for the testing of our hypotheses. Before further discussing the models we turn to the consideration of the variables used to test our hypotheses. DATA Our dependent variable measures political protest behavior. Respondents were asked about frequency of attending demonstrations or protests against the government. 86% of respondents report that they have not attended a protest or demonstration against the government, 1 This data is available through www.afrobarometer.org. See appendix 1 for list of countries and number of survey respondents from that country. 3 This method of data collection will necessitate the use of a weighting variable in the models. 2 hardly an unexpected figure given the political climate of much of sub-Saharan Africa. Even when considering whether a person might attend, the number that have not attended a protest is 51.4% and only 34.6% say they have not but might attend a protest. The median score is 0. The measurements are examined in Table 1. What we are examining is an infrequent phenomenon. As demonstrated in our data, less than 3500 respondents have ever engaged in unconventional behavior measured as protest against the government. While this makes studying the phenomenon difficult, it adds to the robustness of any results that we find. Table 1: Did Respondent Attend Political Demonstration/Protest Frequency Valid Percentage Never No, might attend 1-2 times Several times Frequently 12698 8548 1862 1001 583 51.4 34.6 7.5 4.1 2.4 Cummulative Percentage 51.4 86.0 93.6 97.6 100.0 There are 705 cases of missing data The particulars of the independent variables are shown in Table 2. Each of these variables is ordinal in measurement, so the central tendency shown is the median category. In the measurement of free and fair elections and the respondent’s belief in lawful vs. immediate action to correct grievances, the modal category is different than the median category, but for all other independent variables the median and the mode are equal. Understanding democracy was measured by asking the respondent if they knew what democracy meant. A score of 0 indicates the respondent did not understand the word, a score of 1 means that the person understood the word but had difficulty expressing a meaning. A score of 2 represents comprehension and definition. Table 2. Independent Variables Valid Cases Variable Understand 23990 Democracy 25278 Vote in Last Election Free and Fair 23017 Elections Support for 21414 Democracy 20748 Extent of Democracy Satisfaction with 21287 Democracy 23966 Party Competition 24520 Obey the Law Belief in Lawful 24960 Solutions Central Tendency Range 2 0-2 4 0-4 2(3)* 0-3 3 0-3 3 1-4 3 0-4 2 4 0-3 1-5 4(5)* 1-5 *mode is reported in parentheses Voting in the last election was measured by asking a respondent about voting and whether they were registered to vote. A score of 0 represents not even being registered to vote. A score of 1 indicates a person was prevented from voting. A score of 2 shows a person did not vote and gave a reason for not voting (such as difficulty finding the polling location, belief that voting would not be safe, etc.). A score of 3 represents a person simply choosing not to vote. A four represents having voted. Were the last elections free and fair is measured on a 0-3 scale. 0 represents not free or fair, 1 that they were free and fair, but had major problems, 2 that there were minor problems, and 3 that they were totally free and fair without problems. While the overwhelming majority answer is totally free and fair, the median response was free and fair with minor problems. Support for democracy was measured on an ascending scale with 0 being not supportive at all and 3 being totally supportive of democracy. Perception of democracy is measured on a scale of 1-4, asking how democratic a respondent believes his/her country to be, with 1 representing not democratic at all and 4 representing fully democratic. Satisfaction with democracy asks the respondent if they are satisfied with a democratic government on a scale of 0 to 4. 0 represented totally dissatisfied and 4 represents very satisfied. Belief that party competition causes conflict is also measured in our model. On a scale of 0-3 with 0 representing never causes conflict and 3 representing always causes conflict, the median and most frequent respondent says that party competition often causes conflict. The final two independent variables consider the relationship of belief in laws (a fundamental trait of pluralist democracy) and unconventional behavior. Most people agree that they must obey the law on a scale of 1-5, where 1 represent strongly disagreeing with this principle and 5 represents strongly agreeing with the principle of obedience to law. When asked about their belief in immediate solutions versus finding lawful solutions the median response was belief in lawful solutions, but the most frequent response is strongly believing in lawful solutions. As control factors in the models we consider the age of the respondent, employment status of the respondent, gender of the respondent, and race of the respondent.4 The average age was 36.62. The most frequent and median response to employment is not employed (again not unexpected as sub-Saharan Africa is home to the largest concentration of poverty in the world). The division between male and female is almost exact as 12702 men are included and 12695 women are included the data. Finally, as is expected most of the respondents are black Africans (87.9% of respondents). MODELS and FINDINGS We offer four models that test the hypothesis sets that we believe tests the relationship of democratic pluralism with unconventional political behavior in sub-Saharan Africa. Table 3 4 While we very much would like to include a measure of personal ideological preferences, such information is not included in the datasets generated from the completion of the Afrobarometer surveys. We are concerned that lack of this variable may cause inflated values of other variables in our models. shows the results of the models. Models were tested for fit and for collinearity and no issues were noted. Model 1, testing the understanding of democracy in relationship to protest, has an N of 23032 and a Wald Chi-Square value of 614.59, probability of .0000. Model 2, testing the relationship of voting and protest, has an N of 22081 and a Wald Chi-Square of 498.04, probability.0000. Model 3, testing the efficacy of democracy and protest, has an N of 18643, Wald Chi-Square 347.86, probability .0000. Model 4, testing hypotheses related to belief in law and protest, has an N of 23320 with a Wald Chi-Square of 533.83, probability .0000. Table 3. Models of Democratic Pluralism and Protest Model 1 Model 2 .1860*** Understand (.0168) Democracy .0646*** Vote in Last (.0092) Election -.0098 Free and Fair (.0125) Elections Support for Democracy Extent of Democracy Satisfaction with Democracy Party Competition Model 3 -.0025 (.0141) .0018 (.0222) -.0203 (.0190) -.0471** (.0153) Obey the Law Belief in Lawful Solutions Age Employment Gender Race -.0135*** (.0009) .0805*** (.0158) -.3549*** (.0269) .0028 (.0064) -.0158*** (.0009) .0733*** (.0162) -.3745*** (.0272) -.0021*** (.0004) Model 4 -.0129*** (.0010) .0772*** (.0173) -.3851*** (.0296) -.0016*** (.0005) -.0082 (.0121) -.0459*** (.0109) -.0136*** (.0009) .0896*** (.0158) -.4035*** (.0265) -.0023*** (.0004) Std. error in parentheses p>.05*, p>.01**, p>.001*** We find support in the model for three (3) of our hypotheses. Increased understanding of democracy does lead to lower levels of protest. Decreased belief that party competition causes conflict leads to lower protest. Increased belief in lawful solutions to problems does lead to lower protest. However, a statistically significant relationship was found in relation to voting and it is actually that increased voting leads to an increase in protesting. We address this last finding first, then consider the other findings. Increasing the value of voting by one (1) standard deviation (a value of 1.52) increases the likelihood of protest increasing by 110.32%. The implication is people who believe they are freer to vote and participate actively in politics will be more willing to engage in protest against their government. The other possible implication is that protests later caused the government to relent and allow elections. In sub-Saharan Africa both of these behaviors are noticeable. If you as a black South African if he/she has ever engaged in protest, the answer is almost assuredly yes if they are over the age of 30. Following protests in the 1980s and early 1990s black South Africans were universally awarded the opportunity to vote and have voted in high numbers in elections held since the protest years at the end of the apartheid era of South Africa. Since the data do not ask what came first—voting or protesting—it is impossible to clearly tell which is causal. They are, however, statistically significant in relationship to one another to a high degree in the data we tested. Not only does an increase in understanding democracy lead to decrease in protest, but it has a 116.31% likelihood of decreasing protest when understanding democracy increases by one (1) standard deviation (a value of .81). Understanding democracy is at the root of democratic pluralism having the opportunity to grow. This is an important finding, but not one that was unexpected. Regarding the efficacy of democracy we are at a loss to explain how support for democracy and satisfaction with democracy have no statistically significant relationship with protest. The extent to which a person perceives his/her state to be democratic is even less significant in relationship to protest. It is encouraging to see that when belief that multi-party competition causes conflict decreases there is a decrease in protest that is statistically significant. This finding bodes well for the future of pluralistic democracy. Concerning law as a useful source of governance, it is understandable that an increase in belief in obedience to law is not significant in relationship to protest. If democracy is evident in a society, the ability to voice concern and demonstrate against the state is not illegal. More important we did find a statistically significant relationship exists between increased belief in lawful solutions and decrease in protest. When belief in lawful solutions increases by a value of 1.21 (one std. deviation) the likelihood of protest decreases by 94.58%. None of the findings related to the controls are surprising. Protest in sub-Saharan Africa is a young person’s game, so as age increases protest decreases in all of the models. People who are employed tend to engage in protest more than those who are not employed. This is understandable as they have more to lose from poor governance. The indication of the findings related to gender is that men engage in protest more often than women. Regarding race, black Africans protest more than other Africans—no surprise considering their high proportion in the cases of the dataset used for the models. Conclusions Our findings as expressed in the hypotheses are illustrated in Table 4. The biggest surprise in our findings was that there was no statistically significant relationship between a lack of support for democracy and willingness to engage in protest politics. According to Dalton, protest politics is a game played by those who feel the need to be empowered or to empower others, usually by those who do not feel that they have the political efficacy to make change happen through the normal course of the democratic political process. These people are usually found on the traditional left and the post-materialist left, both of which are ideologies that seek to change the balance of societal power to include those who are not presently part of the system. It may well be a case that those who express dissatisfaction with democracy feel so alienated that they feel that there is nothing to gain by engaging in any type of political behavior. Table 4. Summary of Findings in Relation to Hypotheses Hypothesis Finding Increased Understanding Democracy Hypothesis supported causes Increased Protest Increased Voting causes Decreased Hypothesis not supported Protest Increased Fairness of Elections No statistically significant finding causes Decreased Protest Increased Support for Democracy No statistically significant finding causes Decreased Protest Increased Extent of Democracy No statistically significant finding causes Decreased Protest Increased Satisfaction with No statistically significant finding Democracy causes Decreased Protest Decreased Belief that Party Competition Causes Conflict causes Hypothesis supported Decreased Protest Increased belief in Obedience to No statistically significant finding Law causes Decreased Conflict Increased Belief in Lawful Solutions to Problems causes Decreased Hypothesis Supported Protest A second consideration stems from the fact that this particular data set did not allow for consideration of either post-materialist or traditional left/right values. If we were able to do so, there is a possibility that inclusion of such variables with this data might have yielded a different result on this hypothesis as well as others. We would encourage the inclusion of such ideological measurement and/or self-placement variables in future waves of the Afrobarometer. This is of particular interest to scholars in the area of political values and how they translate to political participation, particularly given the continued development of Africa and its growing place on the global stage. This is speculation on our part, however. Nevertheless, prior research (Opp, 1990) suggests that post-materialism has an additive and multiplicative effect on protest behavior. If it is not present at all, we may well have to reconsider our earlier assertion that it is not the main driving value system behind protest politics. We cannot doubt that other factors are present and significantly impact protest behavior, and the data we present here demonstrates that there certainly are others. However, this is an issue that future research in this area should attempt to confront. Voting, one of the most conventional aspects of democratic political participation, is generally accepted as a low-impact political activity. Other forms of conventional behavior, such as volunteering in a political campaign, require participants to spend more time and monetary capital on their activities. Protest behavior, with its unconventional attributes, leaves and even larger impact. It takes place outside the framework of normal institutional arrangements, and its maverick reputation necessarily engenders a level of risk beyond the usual political capital spent in actively participating in any organized activity. 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Wade, A. 2007. “Democracy and Development: Consolidating Peace in Africa.” Harvard International Review. 29:3, 26-29. Appendix 1: Afrobarometer Countries and Respondent Numbers Country Benin Botswana Cape Verde Ghana Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Number of Respondents 1198 1200 1256 1197 1278 1161 1350 1200 1244 1198 1200 2363 1200 2400 1304 2400 1200 1048