AOF Applied Finance Lesson 7 Financial Strategies Teacher Resources Resource Description Teacher Resource 7.1 Guide: Business Forecasting Lecture Teacher Resource 7.2 Assessment Criteria: ECPak Growth Summary Teacher Resource 7.3 Key Vocabulary: Financial Strategies Teacher Resource 7.4 Bibliography: Financial Strategies Copyright © 2007–2014 National Academy Foundation. All rights reserved. AOF Applied Finance Lesson 7 Financial Strategies Teacher Resource 7.1 Guide: Business Forecasting Lecture 1. Definition and purpose a. The process of making extrapolations about the future based on past data is known as forecasting. b. Forecasting is used by businesses so that they can make forward-thinking decisions in the present and develop strategic plans for the future. 2. Pros and cons of forecasting a. Pros i. Forecasting can inform decision-making. ii. Quality of data is vital to quality of forecasting. iii. Forecasting enables businesses to plan resource allocation. b. Cons i. It is impossible to predict the future with any certainty, so predictions must be recognized as fallible. ii. The past is not a guide to the future. Numerical trends can be helpful but are not always definitive. iii. Qualitative influences—human factors, peer pressure, and so forth—reduce the reliability of business forecasting. iv. Changes in business objectives can make forecasts superfluous. v. External factors—major world events, acts of nature, and so on—cannot be predicted with any certainty. 3. Methods a. Quantitative i. Quantitative methods are used when statistical data are available. ii. Quantitative analysis involves tracking “moving averages” and looking for trends, cyclical variations, seasonal variations, and so forth. iii. Quantitative analysis involves extrapolation: taking data from the past and projecting it into the future. b. Qualitative i. Qualitative methods assess opinion. ii. Consumer panels, focus groups, and in-house judgments are common methods of gathering data for qualitative analysis. Adapted from biz/ed website. Available at http://www.bized.co.uk/educators/16-19/business/strategy/presentation/forecasting_map.htm Copyright © 2007–2014 National Academy Foundation. All rights reserved. AOF Applied Finance Lesson 7 Financial Strategies Teacher Resource 7.2 Assessment Criteria: ECPak Growth Summary Student Name:______________________________________________________________ Date:_______________________________________________________________________ Using the following criteria, assess whether the student met each one. Met Partially Met Didn’t Meet The summary includes an accurate overview of the historical data presented. □ □ □ The summary includes an accurate overview of what the survey data claims. □ □ □ The summary clearly explains what sort of growth in profits ECPak should expect. The reasoning is supported with specific examples from the data. □ □ □ The concluding statement includes a realistic prediction of where ECPak is headed in the next three to five years. □ □ □ The summary is neat, legible, and presentable and uses proper spelling, grammar, and punctuation. □ □ □ Additional Comments: _____________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________ Copyright © 2007–2014 National Academy Foundation. All rights reserved. AOF Applied Finance Lesson 7 Financial Strategies Teacher Resource 7.3 Key Vocabulary: Financial Strategies Term Definition budgeting Establishing a planned level of revenue and spending for a given time period. cash budget A planned level of cash income and spending for a given time period. external factors Opportunities, risks, and threats that are outside of an organization’s control. Political, environmental, technological, and social factors are all considered external factors. extrapolation To estimate for the future based on current data. forecasting The process of making extrapolations about the future based on past data. irregular expenses Expenses that are not paid regularly each month. Also referred to as unexpected expenses. manage The process of allocating a firm’s resources to maximize value. measure The process of assessing a firm’s resources and value. operating budget A projection of income and expenses based on a forecasted sales revenue for a given time period. qualitative analysis An analysis based on subjective judgment that is not quantifiable, such as management expertise, labor relations, and so forth. quantitative analysis A mathematical analysis based on understanding the reasoning of a given event or behavior. resource allocation The process of allocating money to a specific project, business unit, or cause. A way to assign the available resource in a very specific and economic way. Copyright © 2007–2014 National Academy Foundation. All rights reserved. AOF Applied Finance Lesson 7 Financial Strategies Teacher Resource 7.4 Bibliography: Financial Strategies The following sources were used in the preparation of this lesson and may be useful for your reference or as classroom resources. We check and update the URLs annually to ensure that they continue to be useful. Print Besley, Scott and Eugene Brigham. Principles of Finance. Mason, OH: Thomson South-Western, 2006. Online “Financial Services - Budgets & Reporting: Terms & Definitions.” Duke University, www.finsvc.duke.edu/budget/budterm.html (accessed August 31, 2013). “How to set a budget and stick to it.” BetterMoneyHabits.com, http://www.bettermoneyhabits.com/en/videos/set-budget-stick-to-it.html?cat=savingbudgeting&incomplete#fbid=2TVMA7wHaPB (accessed November 21, 2013). Copyright © 2007–2014 National Academy Foundation. All rights reserved.