GWG Report – Summer 2015 12/18/2015 Generation Working Group Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group Revision History Date or Version Number Author 11/13/2015 GWG 12/18/2015 GWG Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 1 Change Description Comments Initial draft Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group Table of Contents Revision History .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Background .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Purpose.......................................................................................................................................3 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................3 Scope and Methodology ............................................................................................................4 Historical Performance of Wind Generation ..................................................................................... 4 Generation Outage Data from CROW .............................................................................................. 4 SPP Load Statistics ........................................................................................................................... 5 Results .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Performance of Wind Generation ..................................................................................... 6 Generation Outage Data from CROW ............................................................................................ 10 SPP Load Statistics ......................................................................................................................... 12 Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 2 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group Background Purpose The Generation Working Group (GWG) maintains, coordinates, and implements Criteria related to generation in Southwest Power Pool (SPP). One task of the GWG is to monitor and establish criteria for the rating of generating units within SPP and report results to the Markets and Operations Policy Committee (MOPC). During the course of the GWG activities over the last few years, there has been a need to perform analysis on an ad-hoc basis using operational data to support changes to the SPP Criteria. The following report aims to support the GWG’s Charter responsibilities by analyzing operational data on a bi-annual basis in order to promote a high standard of rating criteria for generating unit. Executive Summary At this time, the GWG recommends no changes to the approved SPP Criteria Section 12.1.5.3.g which covers the approved methodology for establishing net capability for wind and solar facilities. The Criteria presently requires the rating for wind resources to correspond to the peak hours of the Load Serving Member. As can be seen from the data, the planning capacity of a wind resources must be tied to the corresponding peaks of the members load as that value varies greatly from 5% to over 27%, dependent upon location and timing of peak load. This confirms the methodology that the wind resource’s planning capability should be based both on location and tied to load. It also confirms that the current default value of 5% used for facilities less than or equal to three (3) years of commercial operation in the SPP Criteria is reasonable. If the wind resources were to correspond to the peak hours of the SPP CBA, then the corresponding wind accreditation based on the current approved methodology is approximately 11.9% for the peak summer month. The GWG considers these results to highlight the need for a methodology that includes multiple years while also expanding the sample data beyond the single peak hour. The accompanying charts and graphs take into account all of the wind resources within the SPP footprint that had operational data for the summer peak months of June through September during the summer seasons 2013, 2014, and 2015. Where available, the sample data also included the summer season of 2011 and/or 2012. The resource sample is comprised of resources having both firm and non-firm transmission rights. The output data for the resources includes failed starts, forced outages, impacts from severe weather conditions, and curtailments for both reliability and economic reasons. The data reported for the “SPP” labeled charts would be considered the coincident peak for the legacy BAs included in the Consolidated Balancing Authority (CBA). The data reported at the Legacy BA level takes into account the peak for that BA and the resources within its footprint. These charts and data represent 13 of the 16 Legacy BAs. The remaining 3 BAs did not have wind resources with operational data in SPP’s archives for the three year period nor physically located in their BA. The wind resource performance values are based on the peak load and wind resource output levels for the Legacy BA aggregation. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 3 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group The average wind resource output level during the non-coincident annual peak hour for the Legacy BAs was 21.1% of installed nameplate capacity. The range of wind output during the annual peak hour included a minimum of 0.0% and a maximum of 83.7% over the sample period. The nonweighted average wind performance during the non-coincident summer loads of the legacy areas based on the current criteria is 15.6%. The flat average wind resource output level during the annual peak hour for the SPP CBA was 14% of installed nameplate with a minimum of 2.8% and a maximum of 28.7% over the sample period for summer months. Scope and Methodology The following report will focus on the historical performance of wind generation, the commitment statistics from the Integrated Marketplace, and generation outage data as they relate to the previous summer season. It will also examine the load levels for the summer season and the generation mix that was utilized to serve that load during the peak hours. Historical Performance of Wind Generation In order to evaluate the performance of wind generation, SPP staff: 1. Identified the top 3% peak load hours and the peak load hour for each legacy Balancing Authority (BA) during the summer months for the 2012-2015 summer seasons. 2. Obtained the wind output data for the months that the peak hour occurred for each legacy BA for wind farm in operation during the summer seasons of 2012-2015. SPP doesn’t record the load amounts for each individual entity that serves load within the SPP footprint. The historical load amounts for each legacy BA are readily available and represent the different geographic regions of SPP’s footprint. In SPP’s operational models, individual resources registered in SPP’s Marketplace are associated to one of the legacy BA areas. This relationship could be based on the ownership of the individual resource share for joint owned facilities or the physical location on the transmission system. In order to streamline the analysis process, only wind resources with at least three years of operational data were evaluated. This results in an incomplete set of legacy BA areas. The same analysis was also performed on the complete SPP Consolidated Balancing Authority footprint. 3. Displayed the wind amounts as an average percentage of the nameplate maximums in relation to the confidence factor. 4. Identified the wind amounts during the top 3% peak load hours of each year. 5. Compiled the results from each area into a single table. Generation Outage Data from CROW For the purpose of this report, SPP focused on the amount of capacity that was submitted to SPP’s CROW system as a Forced, Emergency, or Operational priority outage during the summer months. There is a chart that includes all generator outages and another that only shows those that were submitted as Forced, Emergency, or Operational. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 4 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group It should be clarified the wind production values used in this report already take into consideration: 1) forced outages and failed to start; 2) curtailments due to both reliability and economic reason; and 3) weather related events. SPP Load Statistics In order to determine if the top three percent of load hours are an accurate representation of the super peak hours, SPP staff examined the SPP aggregate load duration curves for each month during the past summer season. The top three percent threshold is noted on each graph. In addition to the load duration curves, SPP also determined the average generation amounts by fuel type during the top three percent of load hours for the peak summer month. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 5 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group Results Historical Performance of Wind Generation All wind generation outputs are represented as an average percentage of nameplate amounts for the given area. Area Wind Output at Annual Summer Peak Hours Wind Output at (Summer 2012 - Summer 2015) 60% Confidence Average Minimum Maximum Factor Using Top Percentage of Percentage of Percentage of 3% of Summer Nameplate at Nameplate at Nameplate at Load Hours Yearly Peak Yearly Peak Yearly Peak (Summer 2012 Hour Hour Hour Summer 2015) Wind Output at 60% CF Using Top 3% of Summer Load Hours from Summer 2014 Report Area1 Area2 Area3 Area4 Area5 Area6 Area7 Area8 Area9 Area10 Area11 Area12 Area13 Area Totals 23.0% 16.7% 36.3% 26.2% 24.6% 18.0% 13.1% 16.1% 24.3% 45.2% 4.5% 20.1% 16.2% 21.1% 10.1% 6.1% 0.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 3.4% 3.1% 2.0% 15.2% 0.5% 1.0% 5.5% 0.0% 40.0% 26.6% 63.5% 59.3% 83.7% 36.9% 21.6% 31.3% 56.2% 74.2% 8.9% 39.4% 21.3% 83.7% 17.5% 8.4% 27.2% 23.1% 11.8% 25.0% 9.5% 12.8% 15.2% 21.1% 5.2% 19.1% 22.2% 15.6% 17.9% 8.2% N/A 26.1% 16.2% 23.5% 15.2% 13.4% 30.1% 19.5% 10.6% 18.6% 15.1% 17.9% SPP CBA 14.0% 2.8% 28.7% 11.9% 16.4% Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 6 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group Note: This data represents the output at a 60% confidence factor during the top 3% of load hours. NOTE: Performance for each area is determined by the average output as a percentage of nameplate for each resource associated with the area. The above chart is composed of data from the summer months for the 2012-2015 summer seasons. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 7 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group NOTE: Average output by area at 60% Confidence Factor ranges from 5.2 % to 27.2% for summer load hours. The above chart is composed of data from the summer months for the 2012-2015 summer seasons. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 8 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group NOTE: Wind accreditation is based on individual member load and this graph is for reference purposes to only compare the present methodology to the overall region’s wind performance. Summer Year Wind Percentage of Nameplate at Peak Hour for SPP CBA 2015 2014 2013 2012 AVERAGE Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 9 20.07% 28.65% 2.84% 4.47% 14.0% Nameplate 10621 8620 8531 7571 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Outage Data from CROW Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 10 Generation Working Group Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 11 Generation Working Group Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group SPP Load Statistics Note: This slide depicts the top 3% of the summer load hours as it relates to the summer load duration curve. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 12 Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Generation Working Group AVERAGE GENERATION MIX DURING TOP 3% OF LOAD HOURS FOR THE PEAK SUMMER MONTH OF 2015 Nuclear 4.86% Solar 0.07% Wind 7.01% Hydro 1.21% Coal 48.57% Gas 37.96% Fuel Oil 0.31% NOTE: This chart displays the actual MW output amounts during the top 3% of load hours for the peak summer month of 2015 for the SPP CBA. Bi-Annual Report – Summer 2015 13