Report - RTO Insider

advertisement
GWG Report – Summer
2015
12/18/2015
Generation Working Group
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
Revision History
Date or Version
Number
Author
11/13/2015
GWG
12/18/2015
GWG
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
1
Change Description
Comments
Initial draft
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
Table of Contents
Revision
History
..................................................................................................................................................................
1
Background
..................................................................................................................................................................
3
Purpose.......................................................................................................................................3
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................3
Scope and Methodology ............................................................................................................4
Historical Performance of Wind Generation ..................................................................................... 4
Generation Outage Data from CROW .............................................................................................. 4
SPP Load Statistics ........................................................................................................................... 5
Results
..................................................................................................................................................................
6
Historical Performance of Wind Generation ..................................................................................... 6
Generation Outage Data from CROW ............................................................................................ 10
SPP Load Statistics ......................................................................................................................... 12
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
2
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
Background
Purpose
The Generation Working Group (GWG) maintains, coordinates, and implements Criteria related to
generation in Southwest Power Pool (SPP). One task of the GWG is to monitor and establish criteria
for the rating of generating units within SPP and report results to the Markets and Operations Policy
Committee (MOPC). During the course of the GWG activities over the last few years, there has been
a need to perform analysis on an ad-hoc basis using operational data to support changes to the SPP
Criteria. The following report aims to support the GWG’s Charter responsibilities by analyzing
operational data on a bi-annual basis in order to promote a high standard of rating criteria for
generating unit.
Executive Summary
At this time, the GWG recommends no changes to the approved SPP Criteria Section 12.1.5.3.g
which covers the approved methodology for establishing net capability for wind and solar facilities.
The Criteria presently requires the rating for wind resources to correspond to the peak hours of the
Load Serving Member. As can be seen from the data, the planning capacity of a wind resources
must be tied to the corresponding peaks of the members load as that value varies greatly from 5% to
over 27%, dependent upon location and timing of peak load. This confirms the methodology that the
wind resource’s planning capability should be based both on location and tied to load. It also
confirms that the current default value of 5% used for facilities less than or equal to three (3) years
of commercial operation in the SPP Criteria is reasonable. If the wind resources were to correspond
to the peak hours of the SPP CBA, then the corresponding wind accreditation based on the current
approved methodology is approximately 11.9% for the peak summer month. The GWG considers
these results to highlight the need for a methodology that includes multiple years while also
expanding the sample data beyond the single peak hour.
The accompanying charts and graphs take into account all of the wind resources within the SPP
footprint that had operational data for the summer peak months of June through September during
the summer seasons 2013, 2014, and 2015. Where available, the sample data also included the
summer season of 2011 and/or 2012. The resource sample is comprised of resources having both
firm and non-firm transmission rights. The output data for the resources includes failed starts, forced
outages, impacts from severe weather conditions, and curtailments for both reliability and economic
reasons. The data reported for the “SPP” labeled charts would be considered the coincident peak for
the legacy BAs included in the Consolidated Balancing Authority (CBA). The data reported at the
Legacy BA level takes into account the peak for that BA and the resources within its footprint.
These charts and data represent 13 of the 16 Legacy BAs. The remaining 3 BAs did not have wind
resources with operational data in SPP’s archives for the three year period nor physically located in
their BA. The wind resource performance values are based on the peak load and wind resource
output levels for the Legacy BA aggregation.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
3
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
The average wind resource output level during the non-coincident annual peak hour for the Legacy
BAs was 21.1% of installed nameplate capacity. The range of wind output during the annual peak
hour included a minimum of 0.0% and a maximum of 83.7% over the sample period. The nonweighted average wind performance during the non-coincident summer loads of the legacy areas
based on the current criteria is 15.6%. The flat average wind resource output level during the annual
peak hour for the SPP CBA was 14% of installed nameplate with a minimum of 2.8% and a
maximum of 28.7% over the sample period for summer months.
Scope and Methodology
The following report will focus on the historical performance of wind generation, the commitment
statistics from the Integrated Marketplace, and generation outage data as they relate to the previous
summer season. It will also examine the load levels for the summer season and the generation mix
that was utilized to serve that load during the peak hours.
Historical Performance of Wind Generation
In order to evaluate the performance of wind generation, SPP staff:
1. Identified the top 3% peak load hours and the peak load hour for each legacy Balancing
Authority (BA) during the summer months for the 2012-2015 summer seasons.
2. Obtained the wind output data for the months that the peak hour occurred for each legacy BA
for wind farm in operation during the summer seasons of 2012-2015. SPP doesn’t record the
load amounts for each individual entity that serves load within the SPP footprint. The
historical load amounts for each legacy BA are readily available and represent the different
geographic regions of SPP’s footprint.
 In SPP’s operational models, individual resources registered in SPP’s Marketplace
are associated to one of the legacy BA areas. This relationship could be based on the
ownership of the individual resource share for joint owned facilities or the physical
location on the transmission system. In order to streamline the analysis process, only
wind resources with at least three years of operational data were evaluated. This
results in an incomplete set of legacy BA areas.
 The same analysis was also performed on the complete SPP Consolidated Balancing
Authority footprint.
3. Displayed the wind amounts as an average percentage of the nameplate maximums in
relation to the confidence factor.
4. Identified the wind amounts during the top 3% peak load hours of each year.
5. Compiled the results from each area into a single table.
Generation Outage Data from CROW
For the purpose of this report, SPP focused on the amount of capacity that was submitted to SPP’s
CROW system as a Forced, Emergency, or Operational priority outage during the summer months.
There is a chart that includes all generator outages and another that only shows those that were
submitted as Forced, Emergency, or Operational.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
4
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
It should be clarified the wind production values used in this report already take into consideration:
1) forced outages and failed to start; 2) curtailments due to both reliability and economic reason; and
3) weather related events.
SPP Load Statistics
In order to determine if the top three percent of load hours are an accurate representation of the super
peak hours, SPP staff examined the SPP aggregate load duration curves for each month during the
past summer season. The top three percent threshold is noted on each graph. In addition to the load
duration curves, SPP also determined the average generation amounts by fuel type during the top
three percent of load hours for the peak summer month.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
5
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
Results
Historical Performance of Wind Generation
All wind generation outputs are represented as an average percentage of nameplate amounts for the
given area.
Area
Wind Output at Annual Summer Peak Hours
Wind Output at
(Summer 2012 - Summer 2015)
60% Confidence
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Factor Using Top
Percentage of Percentage of Percentage of 3% of Summer
Nameplate at Nameplate at Nameplate at
Load Hours
Yearly Peak
Yearly Peak
Yearly Peak
(Summer 2012 Hour
Hour
Hour
Summer 2015)
Wind Output at
60% CF Using
Top 3% of
Summer Load
Hours from
Summer 2014
Report
Area1
Area2
Area3
Area4
Area5
Area6
Area7
Area8
Area9
Area10
Area11
Area12
Area13
Area Totals
23.0%
16.7%
36.3%
26.2%
24.6%
18.0%
13.1%
16.1%
24.3%
45.2%
4.5%
20.1%
16.2%
21.1%
10.1%
6.1%
0.0%
2.5%
1.4%
0.6%
3.4%
3.1%
2.0%
15.2%
0.5%
1.0%
5.5%
0.0%
40.0%
26.6%
63.5%
59.3%
83.7%
36.9%
21.6%
31.3%
56.2%
74.2%
8.9%
39.4%
21.3%
83.7%
17.5%
8.4%
27.2%
23.1%
11.8%
25.0%
9.5%
12.8%
15.2%
21.1%
5.2%
19.1%
22.2%
15.6%
17.9%
8.2%
N/A
26.1%
16.2%
23.5%
15.2%
13.4%
30.1%
19.5%
10.6%
18.6%
15.1%
17.9%
SPP CBA
14.0%
2.8%
28.7%
11.9%
16.4%
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
6
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
Note: This data represents the output at a 60% confidence factor during the top 3% of load hours.
NOTE: Performance for each area is
determined by the average output as
a percentage of nameplate for each
resource associated with the area.
The above chart is composed of data from the summer months for the 2012-2015 summer seasons.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
7
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
NOTE: Average output by area at
60% Confidence Factor ranges from
5.2 % to 27.2% for summer load
hours.
The above chart is composed of data from the summer months for the 2012-2015 summer seasons.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
8
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
NOTE: Wind accreditation is based on individual member load and this graph is for reference
purposes to only compare the present methodology to the overall region’s wind performance.
Summer
Year
Wind Percentage of Nameplate at Peak
Hour for SPP CBA
2015
2014
2013
2012
AVERAGE
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
9
20.07%
28.65%
2.84%
4.47%
14.0%
Nameplate
10621
8620
8531
7571
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Outage Data from CROW
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
10
Generation Working Group
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
11
Generation Working Group
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
SPP Load Statistics
Note: This slide depicts the top 3% of the summer load hours as it relates to the summer load duration curve.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
12
Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
Generation Working Group
AVERAGE GENERATION MIX DURING TOP 3% OF LOAD HOURS
FOR THE PEAK SUMMER MONTH OF 2015
Nuclear
4.86%
Solar
0.07%
Wind
7.01%
Hydro
1.21%
Coal
48.57%
Gas
37.96%
Fuel Oil
0.31%
NOTE: This chart displays the actual MW output amounts during the top 3% of load hours for the peak
summer month of 2015 for the SPP CBA.
Bi-Annual Report – Summer
2015
13
Download