Montenegro
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1.1
Policy and legal framework
The Government of Montenegro integrated climate change in its National Strategy on Sustainable
Development including urban plans (climate change mitigation and adaptation mechanisms, energy
efficiency) and issues National Communications (NC) on Climate Change. The Initial NC includes
observed climate change from 1949-2005, projections to 2100 using the EBU-POM oceanatmosphere regional model, impacts on sectors are also considered including water resources,
coastal areas, agriculture, public health, and finally constraints, gaps and needs. Montenegro is
currently working on the Second NC. Within the scope of the United Nations Development
Assistance Framework (UNDAF) for the period 2010–2015, UNDP will support various ministries
to undergo reforms, develop legislation and incentives for the private-sector and individuals in order
to build more climate resilient communities, economies and ecosystems.
A Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Montenegro
National Strategy and Action Plan has been undertaken (October 2012). The assessment describes a
set of activities that prioritise technologies (in terms of new equipment, techniques, practical
knowledge, skills and capacity, approaches, etc.) for climate change mitigation and adaptation and
proposes measures. Finally measures for accelerating the prioritised technological options were
developed and form an action plan for implementation of the TNA strategy. The measures for
adaptation are:
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Analysis and assessment of vulnerability of agricultural producers for extreme weather conditions
and climate change in general
Preparation of a study on coastal area wetlands (implications of reducing vulnerability to climate
change in coastal area, links with Natura 2000, degree to which they are endangered and necessary
protection measures)
Research on vulnerability of different types of forests to climate change
Adoption of national climate policy and systematic integration of climate change concerns into
sectoral policies are very important for the implementation of TNA strategy and action plan.
Montenegro has developed national plans containing specific plans on adaptation. The main
anticipated initiatives by sector are provided. (The Republic of Montenegro: Ministry for Spatial
Planning and Environment. ENVSEC, UNEP 2013). See Annex 1.
The IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment Montenegro (2011) report focuses on the ability of
the government and communities of the country to manage and reduce natural hazard-related risks, it
identifies and elaborates general needs with respect to strengthening disaster risk reduction in
Montenegro. Related to the country needs assessment there is some legislation related to DRR that
addresses issues such as risk assessment, vulnerability assessment and early warning systems for
hazards that include current climate hazards, for example the National Strategy for Emergency
Situations.
1.2
Impact, vulnerability and adaptation information and assessments
There is a clear trend of increasing temperature and summers have become very hot. In contrast there
is no clear trend in annual precipitation except in the north-eastern parts of Montenegro (Bijelo
Polje) where rainfall has increased slightly and the coast where rainfall has slightly reduced. Four
major floods have occurred since 2006 and the summer heat wave of 2007 saw the highest European
temperature of 43.3⁰C in Podgorica. Projections of temperature and precipitation to 2100 have been
modelled. Temperatures are likely to increase with the highest value being for the northern part of
Montenegro during summer. Precipitation projections are likely to decrease with the largest decrease
in the southern part of Montenegro during winter. Sea level in the Adriatic Sea could rise by up to
35cm.Montenegro is prone to several natural hazards including floods, drought, heavy
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rainfall/snowfall, wind storms, heat waves, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, airborne sand from
deserts and some epidemics.
At national level, the institutional framework of drought/flood risk assessment is currently in the
process of being defined. The process of drought/flood risk assessment at national level in
Montenegro is organized across different fields and different administrative levels and could be
strengthened by improving coordination among these entities.
Current vulnerability assessments related to social issues are based on development indicators such
as changing demographics in Montenegro i.e. an ageing population, high emigration and low birth
rates and further information is available at:
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/5C35DBFB9ECA0B72C1257505005C5441Full_Report.pdf
Further information on impacts and vulnerability is available from the Regional Climate Vulnerability
Assessment: Synthesis report, Initial National Communication and the TNA. These reports also
contain an analysis of sectoral impacts and recommendations for adaptation in the following sectors:
Water resources: The largest areas of water consumption are hydro-electricity and households. The
areas most vulnerable to flooding are Skadar-lake basin (its tributaries including Bojana river) and
the upper flow of Lim (and also Tara) and confluent streams with torrential character.
Energy: Changes in quantities and patterns of precipitation may reduce river flows with a knock-on
effect on energy generation potential from hydropower sources. It has been estimated that damage to
the hydropower plant at Piva from climate change were about € 7 million per year by 2030.
Tourism: Available estimates of climate change damages for the Montenegrin economy show that a
substantial decrease in revenues (in the range of € 33to 68 million per year) from tourism could be
expected in the far future.
Agriculture: Agriculture is an important economic sector for Montenegro and drought is a key issue.
Impacts may include substantial reductions in yields due to higher temperatures and lower
precipitation, pest infestations are likely to increase reduced availability of agricultural land and
decrease in the content of organic matter in soils. Decreases in livestock production are also possible
as a result of the occurrence of new animal diseases due to heat stress.
Biodiversity: The main impacts are loss of species (especially in water environments) and reduced
productivity of ecosystems. More detailed information on the direct and indirect impacts on
biodiversity and ecosystem services, existing and potential future policies and actions in this area are
provided in Climate change and biodiversity in South-East Europe – impacts and action.
http://www.ecnc.org/uploads/2012/10/2009-climate-change-technical-background-report.pdf .
Coastal areas: Expected negative impacts include loss of space and biodiversity and beach erosion
due to higher sea level and temperature of the sea.
Human health: A changing climate is likely to lead to increased occurrences of infectious and noninfectious diseases, with possible lethal outcomes. It may also leads to growth, fast development,
reproduction and geographical expansion of vectors (mosquitoes, ticks, etc.).
Forestry: Negative impacts of climate change on forests include movement of vegetation zones,
reduced growth, reduced number of species, drying out of forests and more frequent forest fires. In
the forestry sector UNDP Montenegro is supporting the Government of Montenegro in assessing the
vulnerability of seven tree species to pests and plant diseases since Montenegro has no reliable
assessment of the current state of its forests, or a monitoring or control system. The project will
consider how changes in temperature and precipitation over the last 30 years has impacted forest
ecosystems and assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to pests and diseases with future climate
change. Detailed information about fires, frequency of occurrence, affected areas and destroyed
timber volume and related economic damages, as well as analysis of value of wood of economically
important/interesting tree species such as beech, Norway spruce and Sessile oak will be covered.
Industry: Mining operations have led to abandoned tailings that with the possibility of more
frequent and intense storms there is the possibility of increased flooding and likelihood of
contamination of the water courses. Not only is there a threat to river catchments within a country
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but where the river crosses borders there is potential for transboundary conflict. Work has been
undertaken by UNDP to stabilize mine tailings at the Brskovo lead and zinc mine at Jaloviste
Mojkovac in Montenegro to prevent contamination of the groundwater and the Tara river and build
capacity for national and local stakeholders.
1.3
Priority sectors for adaptation action
The priority sub-sectors for adaptation identified in the TNA for Montenegro are:
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water resources,
public health,
agricultural land,
agricultural production,
coastal areas and
forestry.
Water resources – The main issue that was identified in the TNA was that water resource use is not
fully in line with sustainability requirements and is not based on estimated climate change risks. This
has begun to be addressed through the Montenegro Water Sector Report. This report reviewed the
water monitoring network, the availability of spatial data (quality, data sources), institutional
structures and provided examples of best practice. It also designed a water information system ‘tailor
made’ for Montenegro that is compliant with the Water Framework Directive and other EC
requirements.
1.4
Local action
Podgorica is part of a German funded project looking at adaptation in cities in the West Balkans. An
assessment of the impacts and vulnerability of Podgorica has been made and adaptation measures for
heat and drought, urban air quality (issues linked to forest fire) and water related issues are
suggested. The project is on-going with a view to assisting with implementation. (GIZ, 2012).
1.5
Summary table
Item
National
Strategy
Action Plans
Web links (information only in German)
Status
Adaptation Being developed
http://www.unfccc.me/index.php?page=tn
a-montenegro
Being developed
http://www.unfccc.me/index.php?page=tn
a-montenegro
Impacts, vulnerability Currently
and
adaptation undertaken
assessments
Beneficiary
Country
Needs
being IPA
Assessment
Montenegro
http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/?q=coun
tries-risk-information/documentspublications/project-report
Initial
NC
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/libr
ary/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=MN
E/COM/1%20E#beg
Detailed Water Sector Assessment and
Water
Cadastre
Proposals.
2013
http://www.unfccc.me/uploads/Dokument
a/nacionalnekomunikacije/Montenegro%20Water%20
Sector%20Report.pdf
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Research programs
Climate Services / Met Being developed
Office
Web Portal
Monitoring, Indicators,
Methodologies
National
Initial NC
Communication on the
UN
Framework
Convention on Climate
Change
1.6
2010
Contact details
Please provide an official contact name and organization for the Ministry with responsibility for
Climate Change Adaptation…………
1.7
Gaps in knowledge
The following gaps in knowledge were identified from the literature:
Climate services
There is a need to develop a climate data management system and climate analyses and strengthen
the hydrometeorological observation network,( including further automation, a national calibration
system, establishment of a weather radar network, lightning observations and upper air observations)
and risk assessment, production and dissemination of early warning and local scale analyses of
climate change.
There is a need to develop the technical capacities for climate change projections downscaling to
local scales by enhancing investments in climate modelling in cooperation with SEEVCCC and
forecasting and analysis to support strategic and sectoral planning for at-risk sectors and investment
plans of industry in order to promote economic development of the country.
There is a need to develop climate change impact studies in cooperation with DRR, industry and
other sectors. Particularly enhancing the institutional capacity of HMI for hazard mapping,
developing an inventory of past floods or droughts and a systematic process (standardized
methodology) for flood and drought hazard analysis and mapping.
Policy issues: The value of better hydrometeorological observations and services to the national
economic development, and especially to DRR, is not yet fully recognized and appreciated at policy
level. There is a need to raise awareness about the problem of climate change and improve
cooperation and information exchange.
Institutional constraints include lack of experience, insufficient capacity, inadequate
collaboration and exchange of information among institutions, a low level of knowledge and lack of
funds for research programs.
Staff/human resources at HMI: Unlike the hydrometeorological services in EU the HMI has
insufficient number of employees to operate a 24/7 monitoring, analysis and forecasting system.
HMI suffers severely from lack of computing and IT systems, with proper back-up system.
Currently HMI has no training programme for experts. Due to the low number of experts it is
difficult to send staff to be trained by European or other advanced NHMS. HMI participates in
WMO and UNISDR workshops and training as much as possible. However, the low number of
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forecasters ,meteorological and hydrological experts limits the possibilities for them to participate in
this type of training.
Financing of HMI: HMI does not have resources to operate a 24/7 analysing and forecasting
system. HMI is also under-financed with regard to the purchase, operation and maintenance of the
hydrometeorological observation network (adequate number automatic real-time meteorological and
hydrological stations) or modern weather radar and lightning detection networks.
Gaps in sectors: In general there is a lack of detailed, specific and quantified data on vulnerability
and adaptation potential at the sector level. Below are specific gaps.
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There is no adaptation strategy for public health and a lack of information and capacity.
In the agricultural production sub-sector there is no specific scientific research. Institutional and
other capacities needed to ensure systematic response to adaptation challenges are lacking.
Planning and management of resources in coastal areas are fragmented and do not include expected
climate change risks.
Capacities for planning and implementation of sustainable forest management measures (as the most
suitable framework for adaptation) are insufficient.
The Actions proposed (in the TNA) to ensure that development goals are not put at risk are the
following:
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protection and conservation of water, soil, forests and coastal ecosystems;
development of sustainable systems in agriculture;
development of capacities for adequate responses to climate change in health sector;
planning and development of tourism and energy facilities in accordance with changed climate
conditions.
The following challenges that need to be addressed were highlighted by the 1 st workshop held in
Belgrade in April 2013.
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1.8
How to jointly establish a multi-disciplinary approach to this work.
How to present a potential solution to e.g. local authorities so that they don’t see it as a burden but as
an opportunity.
How to convert a plan into action e.g. coasts, steps…..? How have other countries done it?
Cost benefit aspects are biggest challenge – how to transfer perception of these from burden to
benefit? How to link these to economic aspects (jobs) and get people on board.
How to put adaptation on the political agenda? Mitigation is going well as it is legislation driven
however there is not the same pressure for adaptation.
Differences in culture, change perspectives to make adaptation an opportunity, how can climate
change actions and plans help us to deal with national and cultural differences?
References
SEE/VCCC, REC, RHMSS 2008. South east European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for
Adaptation. http://www.seevccc.rs/CCFAP-A/CCFAP-A.pdf
SEEFCCA, 2012. Regional Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Synthesis report.
http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/regional_cva_synthesis_report.pdf
WMO, 2012. Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Risk Assessment in the
Western Balkans and Turkey: Assessment of capacities, gaps and needs.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/projects/SEE/documents/SEEPhase%20I%20%20MontenegroReport.pdf
ENVSEC, UNEP. 2013. Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe A Background Report.
http://www.unep.at/documents_unep/ENVSEC/Climate_Change/CCSEE-Final.pdf
Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment. 2010. The initial national communication on climate
change of Montenegro to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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(UNFCCC).
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=MNE/COM/1%20E
#beg
European Union, UNDP and WMO. 2012. IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment Montenegro
http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/?q=countries-risk-information/documents-publications/projectreport
Consultant Report 1025. UNDP Republic of Montenegro, February 2013. Detailed Water Sector
Assessment and Water Cadastre Proposals http://www.unfccc.me/uploads/Dokumenta/nacionalnekomunikacije/Montenegro%20Water%20Sector%20Report.pdf
Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism 2012. Technology Needs Assessment for Climate
Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Montenegro National Strategy and Action Plan.
http://www.unfccc.me/index.php?page=tna-montenegro
Slovenian Environmental Agency, 2012 Drought Management Centre for South East Europe:
Summary of the project results, co-financed by the SEE Transnational Cooperation Programme
(contract no.SEE/A/091/2.2/X)
GIZ 2012. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Areas in the Western Balkans: Feasibility study,
Abridged report.
Laušević, R., L. Jones-Walters and A. Nieto, 2008 REC, ECNC. Climate change and biodiversity in
South-East Europe – impacts and action, Technical background report.
http://www.ecnc.org/uploads/2012/10/2009-climate-change-technical-background-report.pdf
Annex 8.1
Montenegro has developed national plans containing specific plans on adaptation. The main
anticipated initiatives by sector are provided. (The Republic of Montenegro: Ministry for Spatial
Planning and Environment).
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Water
Prepare the cadastre of water resources and each water resource with all its characteristics and identify
areas of potential danger
Establish a high level of information exchange among different institutions dealing with water resources
Provide a modern automated measuring and control system for the controlled management of water
resources
Provide numerical models and their use in daily operational practice, for the purpose of daily monitoring
of the status of water resources
Amendments to the applicable legislation in the field of spatial planning in order to include the problem
of climate change in coastal during the preparation of spatial planning documentation
Provide for maximum possible protection of water sources from the penetration of sea water
Natural Ecosystem
Establishing an infrastructure for scientific research of impacts of climate change on biodiversity,
terrestrial ecosystems and the sea
Training of experts on the issues of climate change and implementation of modern technologies
Collection of necessary data to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, the sea
and biodiversity
Appointment of an intersectoral group which will deal with the issues of water resources
Elaboration bio-corridors and migratory routes of various species under the conditions of climate change
Establish a gene bank of endemic, threatened and endangered species
Assessment of options for the protection of biodiversity (species) under ex situ conditions
An increase of surface area under protection in accordance with the approved official documents (The
Spatial Plan of Montenegro until 2020; The National Strategy for Sustainable Development)
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Agriculture
Make the agricultural system more flexible, so as to minimize any adverse impacts and disasters on a
broad level
Introduction of the use of breeds that are resistant to heat stress and tropical disease
Education for the producers in the application of new technical adjustments
Forestry
Conversion of coppice forests into high forests
Rehabilitation of degraded forests;
Substituting of failed natural regeneration in high forest;
Preventive measures to protect forests and methods of biological fighting must have a primary character.
Reference: Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe A Background Report.
http://www.unep.at/documents_unep/ENVSEC/Climate_Change/CCSEE-Final.pdf
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